nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2025–10–27
twelve papers chosen by
Alexander Harin


  1. The shared costs of pursuing shareholder values By Fioretti, Michele; Saint-Jean, Victor; Smith, Simon C.
  2. Polen als aufstrebender Weltraumakteur By Süß, Juliana; Wilson, Robert Sam
  3. Hardening fault lines: CESEE in the age of fragmentation By Vasily Astrov; Alexandra Bykova; Selena Duraković; Meryem Gökten; Richard Grieveson; Maciej Grodzicki; Ioannis Gutzianas; Doris Hanzl-Weiss; Marcus How; Gabor Hunya; Branimir Jovanović; Niko Korpar; Dzmitry Kruk; Sebastian Leitner; Benedetta Locatelli; Isilda Mara; Emilia Penkova-Pearson; Olga Pindyuk; Sara Rehak; Sandor Richter; Marko Sošić; Bernd Christoph Ströhm; Maryna Tverdostup
  4. "Der Frieden kommt aus dem Osten": Die Slowakei zwischen Russlandnähe und pragmatischer Ukrainepolitik By Lang, Kai-Olaf
  5. Gendered farm work and decision-making: Quantitative evidence from Tajikistan [in Tajik] By Lambrecht, Isabel; Mahrt, Kristi; Mardonova, Mohru
  6. Climate change effects on agriculture in Tajikistan [in Tajik] By Aliev, Jovidon; Dunston, Shahnila; Ilyasov, Jarilkasin; Khakimov, Parviz; Pechtl, Sarah; Thomas, Timothy S.
  7. Strengthening Europe's defence capabilities through clear tasks and objectives: To secure additional funding, the EU must first define its security priorities By Becker, Peter; Kempin, Ronja
  8. Banking Sector Development and FDI in Emerging Markets: Evidence from the SCO using a CCE-PMG Approach By nisar, ghania
  9. Household resilience and coping strategies to food insecurity: An empirical analysis from Tajikistan (in Tajik) By Aliev, Jovidon; Rajiv, Sharanya
  10. Integrating agrifood system strategies with climate change policies and commitments in Tajikistan [in Tajik] By Akramov, Kamiljon; Aliev, Jovidon; Babu, Suresh; Srivastava, Nandita; Tohirzoda, Sino
  11. China's claim to a new world order By Godehardt, Nadine; Mayer, Maximilian
  12. The Economics of Strategic Learning in Trade Wars: Evidence from the Trump -Xi Natural Experiment. -- Conditional Reciprocity and Behavioral Synchronization in US-China Trade Wars-- By EL Ouardi, Oualid

  1. By: Fioretti, Michele; Saint-Jean, Victor; Smith, Simon C.
    Abstract: Does shareholder visibility affect firms' prosocial behavior? What implications for other shareholders? Exploiting quasi-experimental variation from media coverage around Annual General Meetings and major crises (COVID-19 pandemic and Russian invasion of Ukraine), we show that prominent shareholders support costly prosocial initiatives when these yield reputational benefits. In contrast, less-visible financial blockholders oppose such expenditures at their portfolio firms and prefer to act themselves. Prosocial actions driven by reputational motives reduce investment, productivity, and profits by 1 - 3%, imposing costs on other shareholders. Our findings reveal new implications for minority investors of unobservable intra-shareholder conflicts that emerge when examining shareholder incentives.
    Keywords: shareholder value, wealth, conflict, warm glow, reputation, exit and voice, social responsibility, charitable donations, covid, Ukraine, Russia
    JEL: G32 G41 M14
    Date: 2025
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cbscwp:329627
  2. By: Süß, Juliana; Wilson, Robert Sam
    Abstract: Der Krieg in der Ukraine hat deutlich gemacht, wie wichtig weltraumbasierte Kommunikations- und Aufklärungsdienste für die eigene Verteidigung sind. Europa baut seine Verteidigungsfähigkeiten aus und investiert vermehrt in Weltraumfähigkeiten, hinkt jedoch, was Letztere angeht, im weltweiten Vergleich hinterher. Die Republik Polen ist ein relativer Neuling im Weltraum. Das Land ist bestrebt, eigene Weltraumfähigkeiten aufzubauen, und legt den Fokus dabei auf Erdbeobachtung und die Erfassung der Weltraumlage. Dies kann helfen, regionale Fähigkeitslücken zu schließen. Zudem könnten Möglichkeiten zur bilateralen wirtschaftlichen Zusammenarbeit mit Deutschland entstehen.
    Keywords: Weltraum, Weltraumfähigkeiten, Polen, Deutschland, EU, NATO, Nato, Europäische Weltraumorganisation, ESA, USA, Russland, Ukraine, Krieg in der Ukraine, Satelliten, Satellitensysteme, Angriffe auf Satellitensysteme, Schutz von Satellitensystemen, Aufklärung, Erdbeobachtung, Erdbeobachtungssatelliten, Raumfahrtindustrie, Weltraumlageerfassung, Space Situational Awareness, SSA, EU-System zur Beobachtung und Verfolgung von Objekten im Weltraum, EU Space Surveillance and Tracking, EU SST, polnische Weltraumagentur, POLSA, "Schutzschild Ost", Galileo, Copernicus, Odin's Eye II, Weltraumdiplomatie
    Date: 2025
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpakt:329907
  3. By: Vasily Astrov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Alexandra Bykova (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Selena Duraković (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Meryem Gökten (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Richard Grieveson (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Maciej Grodzicki; Ioannis Gutzianas (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Doris Hanzl-Weiss (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Marcus How; Gabor Hunya (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Branimir Jovanović (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Niko Korpar (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Dzmitry Kruk; Sebastian Leitner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Benedetta Locatelli; Isilda Mara (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Emilia Penkova-Pearson; Olga Pindyuk (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Sara Rehak; Sandor Richter (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Marko Sošić; Bernd Christoph Ströhm (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Maryna Tverdostup (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)
    Abstract: CESEE stands at a crucial turning point, as labour shortages, the inflation shock and geopolitical developments potentially force a shift from a low-wage, export-driven model toward one based on investment, innovation and higher productivity.
    Keywords: CESEE Central and Eastern Europe, economic forecast, Western Balkans, CIS, Ukraine, Russia, Turkey, EU, business cycle, economic sentiment, euro area, convergence, labour markets, unemployment, Russia-Ukraine war, commodity prices, inflation, price controls, trade disruptions, renewable energy, gas, electricity, monetary policy, fiscal policy
    JEL: E20 E21 E22 E24 E32 E5 E62 F21 F31 H60 I18 J20 J30 O47 O52 O57 P24 P27 P33 P52
    Date: 2025–10
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:fpaper:fc:autumn2025
  4. By: Lang, Kai-Olaf
    Abstract: Der slowakische Ministerpräsident Robert Fico gehört zu den lautstarken Kritikern der Russlandpolitik der Europäischen Union und des Westens insgesamt. Fico, der seit Herbst 2023 einem linksnationalen Regierungsbündnis vorsteht, fordert eine Kurswende gegenüber Moskau und eine "friedensorientierte" Neuaufstellung des Westens bei der Unterstützung der Ukraine. Für Ficos russlandfreundliches Gebaren gibt es historische und innenpolitische Gründe. Sein Agieren ist Bestandteil einer von ihm selbst so bezeichneten "Außenpolitik in alle vier Himmelsrichtungen". Trotz der zur Schau gestellten Russlandnähe, einer Übereinstimmung mit Moskau in Fragen der sicherheitspolitischen Ordnung und zahlreichen Konflikten mit der Ukraine unterstützt Fico den EU-Beitritt des Nachbarlands und bilaterale Kooperationsformate. Für Deutschland ist von Bedeutung, ob die Slowakei zu einem Veto-Player in der EU-Russlandpolitik wird oder ob sie ihre Kombination aus Russlandnähe, verbaler Kritik an der Sicherheitspolitik des Westens, doch gleichzeitig auch pragmatischer Unterstützung für die Ukraine fortführen wird.
    Keywords: Smer-SSD, Smer, SNS, Republika, Hlas, REPowerEU, éLudovít éStúr, éLuboés Blaha, Iwan Konjev, Ján Kuciak, Robert Kaliénák, Denis éSmyhal, Andrej Babiés, Peter Pellegrini, Ostkarpatische Operation, Slowakischer Nationalaufstand, SNP, Prager Frühling, Normalisierung, SPP, Gazprom, Slovnaft, Lukoil, Druschba, Zuzana 2
    Date: 2025
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpakt:329919
  5. By: Lambrecht, Isabel; Mahrt, Kristi; Mardonova, Mohru
    Abstract: Quantitative data collected in August and September 2018 in 12 districts of Khatlon Province, called “The Assessment of Nutrition-Sensitive Value Chains in the FtF ZOI in Tajikistan†were employed to analyze gender differences in participation in crop production and marketing activities, and to understand the association between women’s employment and their decision-making power at home. The dataset contains general information on the households’ farm activities, and detailed information of production practices for households’ main horticultural crops (vegetables, fruits, melons and cucurbitae).
    Keywords: Tajikistan; Central Asia; Asia; nutrition; value chains; gender; crop production; marketing; women's empowerment; employment; decision making
    Date: 2024
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ceaspb:11
  6. By: Aliev, Jovidon; Dunston, Shahnila; Ilyasov, Jarilkasin; Khakimov, Parviz; Pechtl, Sarah; Thomas, Timothy S.
    Abstract: Climate change is one of the main challenges for Tajikistan’s agricultural development in the medium and longer term. Tajikistan’s Agri-Food System and Sustainable Development Program (ASDP) for the period up to 2030 defined climate change as one of four key challenges to the development of agriculture and food systems. Accordingly, the Program accentuates the importance climate-optimized agriculture to ensure sustainable development of the sector.; The effects of climate change on agriculture in Tajikistan was examined using IFPRI’s International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) by simulating climate change and no climate change (baseline) scenarios between 2015 and 2050.
    Keywords: climate change; agricultural development; agrifood systems; sustainable development; crops; irrigation; Tajikistan; Central Asia
    Date: 2024
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ceaspb:7
  7. By: Becker, Peter; Kempin, Ronja
    Abstract: The member states of the European Union are once again arguing about money. More specifically, they are arguing about how much they want to spend on defence, where this money should come from and whether they should spend it jointly. That Europe needs to defend itself better is not in dispute in Brussels or the national capitals. However, despite many discussions, summit decisions, documents and initiatives, it is still unclear what goals the EU should pursue or how it should spend money to improve European defence capabilities. In addition to fresh funding, what is needed above all is agreement on shared European objectives. This would enable the continuation and strengthening of military support for Ukraine, the creation of a single market for armaments and services and the financing of these from the EU budget.
    Keywords: European Defence Industry Programme (EDIP), Europe's defence capabilities, military support for Ukraine, single market for armaments, US President Donald Trump, NATO, US Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth
    Date: 2025
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:329906
  8. By: nisar, ghania
    Abstract: This study investigates the relationship between domestic banking development and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in nine Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) economies, including Pakistan, India, Iran, China, Russia, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan, from 2000 to 2023. Using a panel econometric framework that combines the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimator with Pesaran’s Common Correlated Effects (CCE) approach, the results show a positive long-run association between banking sector development and FDI. Granger causality analysis provides evidence of a unidirectional relationship, indicating that the development of the banking sector statistically precedes and is strongly associated with foreign investment. The positive long-run association highlights the crucial role of robust banking systems as domestic anchors for investment and as key components of regional economic resilience. The results yield two principal policy implications. First, strengthening domestic banking institutions is an important national strategy for enhancing attractiveness to foreign capital. Second, coordinated efforts among SCO countries are necessary to manage shared economic vulnerabilities and to improve the bloc’s collective investment appeal.
    Keywords: Banking Sector Development, Bank Credit, FDI, Emerging Economies, SCO, Panel ARDL, Common Correlated Effects
    JEL: F36 F38 G2 O16 O18 O19
    Date: 2025–09–17
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126205
  9. By: Aliev, Jovidon; Rajiv, Sharanya
    Abstract: Resilience Index Measurement Analysis (RIMA) is applied to panel household survey data from 2007, 2009, and 2011 in Tajikistan to investigate the causal impact of household resilience on food security in the presence of coping strategies. Key findings • Three significant factors define household resilience capacity: access to basic services, including affordable energy supply; assets; and social safety nets. The latter two factors underscore the importance of formal and informal transfers as effective responses when shocks intensify. • Coping strategies allow households to quickly adjust their behavior to adapt to shocks in the short-term, potentially enhancing their overall resilience in the long-term. • Resilience capacity at a given point in time enhances households’ future food security. Households with higher resilience capacity are likely to have a higher household food expenditure share (HFES) and less likely to face loss of food expenditure share, particularly due to the protective effect of resilience when shocks intensify. • While households with an older head have higher food expenditure share, households with a male head and/or located in rural areas are less likely to face a worsening household food expenditure share. • As household size increases, the household food expenditure share initially decreases but eventually increases at a gradual pace. Conversely, as size increases, households are initially less likely to experience loss of HFES, but this likelihood eventually increases.
    Keywords: Tajikistan; Central Asia; Asia; resilience; food security; energy consumption; social safety nets; assets; households; financial institutions
    Date: 2024
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ceaspb:14
  10. By: Akramov, Kamiljon; Aliev, Jovidon; Babu, Suresh; Srivastava, Nandita; Tohirzoda, Sino
    Abstract: A recent study focused on Tajikistan uses a conceptual framework to undertake such an integration analysis of key national level climate change related and agriculture policy documents. It identifies synergies and existing gaps and provides recommendations on strengthening sectoral integration to achieve climate change goals. This study was funded by the USAID mission in Tajikistan and USAID’s Comprehensive Action for Climate Change Initiative (CACCI)-Asia under their support to the Committee for Environmental Protection (CEP) of Tajikistan toward the implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) through technical support from the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).; The Declaration on Sustainable Agriculture, Resilient Food Systems, and Climate Action endorsed by over 150 countries at UNFCCC-COP28 highlights global recognition of the unprecedented adverse climate impacts on food systems resilience and the need to expedite the integration of agriculture and food systems into climate action. While integration is necessary to ensure favorable sectoral level climate action outcomes, there are currently no concrete frameworks and case studies showcasing how to support this integration process at the country level.
    Keywords: agrifood systems; climate change; policies; rice; Tajikistan; Asia; Central Asia
    Date: 2024
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ceaspb:5
  11. By: Godehardt, Nadine; Mayer, Maximilian
    Abstract: This year's Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Tianjin marked the largest gathering in the organisation's history, drawing more than 20 heads of state and 10 representatives of international organisations. At the SCO+ session, China's Head of State and Party Leader Xi Jinping delivered a keynote address, prominently unveiling the Global Governance Initiative (GGI). For Beijing, development, security, civilisation, and governance constitute the four pillars of building a "community with a shared future for mankind", in essence, a new world order. Amid today's ongoing upheavals, it is imperative for Germany and Europe to recognize China as a global strategic challenge.
    Keywords: China, Russia, Xi Jinping, Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), Global Governance Initiative (GGI), new world order, Germany, Europe, Global South, critical raw materials
    Date: 2025
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:329917
  12. By: EL Ouardi, Oualid
    Abstract: How do rival leaders learn to retaliate without trust or treaties? This paper exploits a rare “same leaders” natural experiment to trace strategic learning in bilateral economic conflict. We analyze two periods of the Trump–Xi trade war — “Trump–Xi 1.0” (2017 2020) and “Trump–Xi 2.0” (2025) — in order to isolate how experience shapes escalation in tariff retaliation. We introduce the Bilateral Learning Strength Index (BLSI). This novel metric captures two behavioral dimensions: conditional reciprocity—how predictably one side responds in kind—and behavioral synchronization—how closely rivals mirror each other’s timing and intensity across repeated trade actions. Using data on 37, 098 U.S.–China trade actions, we find that escalation in Trump–Xi 2.0 is substantially more constrained. Retaliatory responses are both more disciplined and far more synchronized, with a correlation coefficient of 0.884. These results suggest that through repeated interaction, adversarial leaders converge toward implicit rules of engagement—thresholds for retaliation that stabilize conflict dynamics even in settings devoid of formal treaties or mutual trust. The framework has potential applications well beyond trade wars, including central bank coordination, oligopolistic competition, and international monetary spillovers—any environment in which actors engage repeatedly without binding agreements. The BLSI also lays the groundwork for "Quantified Conflict Studies”, which could enable strategic forecasting, AI-assisted diplomacy, and real-time monitoring of conflict behavior in trust-deficient settings. By making strategic learning empirically measurable, this paper contributes to understanding not only how conflict escalates but also how it may evolve toward patterned stability rather than chaos.
    Keywords: Strategic Learning, Conditional Reciprocity, Trade Wars, Behavioral Synchronization, Bilateral Conflict, Game Theory, AI-Diplomacy, Quantified Conflict Studies, Economic Statecraft, US-China Relations, Russia-Ukraine, Natural Experiment, Strategic Forecasting, Political Economy
    JEL: C73 D74 D83 D86 F02 F13 F51 F52 H77 O38
    Date: 2025–09–14
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126177

This nep-cis issue is ©2025 by Alexander Harin. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
General information on the NEP project can be found at https://nep.repec.org. For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <director@nep.repec.org>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.