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on Confederation of Independent States |
| By: | Konstantin Egorov; Vasily Korovkin; Alexey Makarin; Dzhamilya Nigmatulina |
| Abstract: | How effective are trade sanctions? We examine the economic impact of the unprecedented sanc- tions imposed on Russia following February 2022, when Western countries banned exports ac- counting for 36% of Russia’s prewar import value. Combining novel, manually collected records of these sanctions with Russian customs data, firm balance sheets, domestic railway shipments, and government procurement contracts, we provide the most comprehensive analysis of the economic impact of trade sanctions on a target country to date. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we find that imports of sanctioned country-product varieties into Russia saw a sharp 62% decline following the war’s onset. While we see substantial rerouting through third countries, it did not fully offset the direct import losses: total imports of sanctioned products fell by 27%. Firms that had relied on soon-to-be-sanctioned imports experienced a 14% decline in output, also observed in manufacturing, technology, and firms linked to military supply chains. Affected firms also saw reduced government procurement sales and incurred additional losses when their buyers or suppliers were exposed to sanctions. Overall, our findings suggest that, contrary to widespread claims of ineffectiveness, import sanctions on Russia had far-reaching adverse effects. |
| Keywords: | sanctions, international trade, Russia-Ukraine war, geoeconomics |
| JEL: | D22 D74 F14 F51 H56 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upf:upfgen:1920 |
| By: | Clifton-Sprigg, Joanna (University of Bath); Homburg, Ines (University of Antwerp); Vujic, Suncica (University of Antwerp) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of immigration on voting behaviour. Exploiting a unique natural experiment, we research parliamentary election results in Poland following the 2022 inflow of Ukrainian refugees. We exploit the variation in hosted refugees across Polish counties and utilise a shift-share instrument based on the past settlement of Ukrainian immigrants. We find increased support for far-right and right-wing (incumbent) political groups, at the expense of centre parties. There is important regional variation in this overall pattern. The more liberal areas in west Poland experienced political polarisation, with both far-right and left-wing parties gaining support. Furthermore, the rise in far-right support is particularly pronounced in rural counties, low wage counties, and those bordering Ukraine. The effects are driven by changing voter preferences, rather than election participation or natives’ internal mobility, and are not rooted in adverse economic effects. Our findings show that exposure to refugees, even those with a similar background and favourable profile, can still be associated with natives’ backlash. |
| Keywords: | election results, refugee exposure, forced migration, Russia-Ukraine war |
| JEL: | D72 D74 J15 O15 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18157 |
| By: | María Jesus Campion Arrastia; Emilio Dominguez Irastorza; Nuria Oses Eraso; Julen Perales Barriendo |
| Abstract: | The application of fertilisers is a fundamental aspect of soil fertility conservation. In recent decades, the growth in agricultural output has led to a significant increase in demand for fertilisers. The global fertiliser market is characterised by significant volatility and sensitivity to shifts in the global geopolitical landscape. In recent years, events such as the Russian aggression against Ukraine or export restrictions by the Chinese authorities have resulted in a considerable rise in prices and an increase in uncertainty about future behaviour. In this study, the prices of fertilisers typically available in Spain are employed to forecast not only the prices of fertilisers, but also those of essential macronutrients, namely nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium. Forecasting the prices of essential nutrients can inform the environmental assessment of human activities that modify the composition of soil nutrients. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nav:ecupna:2402 |
| By: | Quinet, Alain; Jaravel, Xavier; Schularick, Moritz; Zettelmeyer, Jeromin |
| Abstract: | • We present five guiding principles for European rearmament. Europe's rearmament should be (i) innovation-driven to support European technological capabilities, competitiveness, and productivity growth; (ii) aim for a rapid increase in production capacities for a high-low mix of military capabilities; (iii) rely on quantitative goalpost for R&D expenditures and an unmanned autonomous systems; (iv) build on independent European capabilities alongside NATO to reduce dependence on increasingly unreliable American assets; (v) substantially increase military support for Ukraine as the cost-efficient way towards European security in the short-run. • The central steps are the creation of a European defense single market, the reduction of national fragmentation, and the development of joint European defense capabilities. |
| Abstract: | • In diesem Papier formulieren wir fünf Leitprinzipien für die europäische Aufrüstung. Die europäische Aufrüstung sollte (i) innovationsgetrieben sein, um die technologischen Fähigkeiten, die Wettbewerbsfähigkeit und das Produktivitätswachstum Europas zu stärken; (ii) auf einem schnellen Hochfahren industrieller Kapazitäten sowohl im Hoch- als auch im Niedrigtechnologiebereich abzielen; (iii) auf quantitativen Zielvorgaben für FE-Ausgaben und den Ausbau unbemannter autonomer Systeme beruhen; (iv) unabhängige europäische Fähigkeiten neben der NATO aufbauen, um die Abhängigkeit von zunehmend unzuverlässigen amerikanischen Ressourcen zu verringern; (v) die militärische Unterstützung für die Ukraine substanziell ausweiten, da eine siegreiche Ukraine kurzfristig der günstigste Weg für mehr Sicherheit in Europa darstellt. • Zentrale Schritte dorthin sind die Schaffung eines europäischen Verteidigungsbinnenmarktes, der Abbau nationaler Fragmentierung und der Aufbau gemeinsamer europäischer Verteidigungskapazitäten. |
| Keywords: | Europe, defense, single market, procurement, Europa, Verteidigung, Gemeinsamer Markt, Beschaffung |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkpb:328252 |
| By: | MENG, WEI |
| Abstract: | This study aims to deepen open-source intelligence (OSINT) analysis of Ukraine's Defense Intelligence International Corps through artificial intelligence methods, exploring AI's application potential and methodological value in complex warfare information environments. The core objectives address two questions: First, how can AI technologies be effectively integrated into the OSINT cycle to enhance information screening, pattern recognition, and risk prediction? Second, can AI-driven OSINT provide more forward-looking and systematic support for strategic decision-making? Methodologically, this study adopts a multidisciplinary mixed methodology, integrating text metrology, semantic network analysis, risk radar modeling, and time-series projection to form a comprehensive framework: “Data Collection → AI Processing → Risk Assessment → Timeline Analysis → Insight Output.” The research process extensively leverages multilingual datasets (English, Ukrainian, Russian) and cross-platform information sources (official, media, social networks), utilizing visualization modeling to present data and risks in multidimensional formats. Results demonstrate that AI significantly enhances the depth and breadth of information processing in OSINT analysis. It outperforms traditional methods in misinformation detection accuracy, multilingual keyword extraction efficiency, and predictive power for risk patterns. Military risks and information warfare risks were assessed as highest priority, followed by public opinion risks and legal risks, revealing an overall “military-information warfare-public opinion” triple-high-risk configuration. Concurrently, time-series analysis revealed rhythmic patterns in risk evolution, providing quantitative foundations for future strategic planning. The study concludes that AI not only transforms OSINT's technical framework but also propels it toward structured, systematic, and forward-looking intelligence generation. AI-driven OSINT effectively bridges the tension between data fragmentation and systematic strategic analysis, enabling a qualitative leap in the intelligence cycle from “information accumulation” to “strategic insight.” This study provides an empirical paradigm for interdisciplinary research at the intersection of artificial intelligence and intelligence studies, holding significant theoretical and practical implications for future military conflicts, national security, and policy formulation. |
| Date: | 2025–10–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:y8nwk_v1 |
| By: | Milios Leonidas (European Commission - JRC); Garcia-gutierrez Pelayo; Walker Anna (European Commission - JRC); Albizzati Paola Federica (European Commission - JRC); Pinero Mira Pablo (European Commission - JRC); Besler Malte; Pedauga Luis (European Commission - JRC); Tonini Davide (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | "The implementation of Circular Economy measures in the EU plastics sector has the potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 75-84 Mt CO2-eq. annually by 2050. CE measures can also significantly decrease EU demand for fossil resources and energy demand, leading to a €18 billion annual increase in the EU net trade balance with significant imports reduction from the US, China, UK, and Russia. However, this may come with trade-offs such as reduced employment and gross value added, which need to be further studied to produce more accurate assessment and potential mitigation measures. The study's findings are policy-relevant, highlighting the need for a holistic approach and policy mix over the lifecycle of materials and products to materialise the CE potential, while informing EU policymakers on feasible strategies to support the plastics sector's sustainability transition." |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc143075 |
| By: | Wagner Aymara; Walker Anna (European Commission - JRC); Albizzati Paola Federica (European Commission - JRC); Milios Leonidas (European Commission - JRC); Besler Malte; Pedauga Luis (European Commission - JRC); Rostek Leon; Keramidas Kimon (European Commission - JRC); Pinero Mira Pablo (European Commission - JRC); Christis Maarten; Fonteyn Pieter; Petsinaris Foivos; Zibell Laurent; Tonini Davide (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | "The EU steel sector can reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 64-81 Mt CO2-eq. annually by 2050 through circular economy (CE) measures. CE can also significantly decrease EU demand for ores and energy demand, leading to a €7 billion annual increase in the EU net trade balance with significant imports reduction from China, US, UK, and Russia. However, this may come with trade-offs such as reduced employment and gross value added, which need to be further studied. The study's findings are policy-relevant, highlighting the need for a holistic approach and policy mix to materialise CE potential and informing EU policy-makers on strategies to support the steel sector's sustainable transition." |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc142957 |
| By: | Markosyan, Meruzhan; Matevosyan, Elyanora; Markosyan, Ashot |
| Abstract: | Foreign trade plays a central role in Armenia's economic development, shaping GDP through both internal and external factors. In small and open economies such as Armenia, external trade and integration strategies are decisive for growth. The state budget data for 2022-2024 underline this dependence: VAT revenues from imports formed 65.2% in 2022, 67.4% in 2023, and 57.5% in 2024, while excise taxes from imports accounted for 61.0%, 76%, and 60% respectively. These figures demonstrate that Armenia's fiscal stability is largely driven by foreign trade flows. Between 2019 and 2024, Armenia's trade structure shifted notably, with the share of "other countries" (primarily Global South states) rising from 39% to 53.8%. This trend reflects diversification, new markets, and more efficient partnerships. For Global South countries, international trade integration provides access to growth, technology transfer, and investment inflows, making foreign trade a cornerstone of their development path. For Armenia, improving the export structure, fostering high value-added production, and reducing reliance on raw materials are critical. Strengthening competitiveness, enhancing the investment climate, and adopting international best practices are equally important. This study therefore analyzes Armenia's foreign trade dynamics during 2021-2024 and outlines strategic directions for inclusive growth, regional integration, and cooperation within the Global South. |
| Keywords: | Global South, foreign trade strategy, economic diversification, competitiveness, economic integration, international trade, developing countries, export promotion, economic stability |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:opodis:328270 |
| By: | Atoyan, Vardan; Khachikyan, Sos; Petrosyan, Nushik |
| Abstract: | In an era of global systemic transformations, small states encounter heightened challenges in safeguarding their sovereignty and maintaining strategic relevance. This article examines Armenia's foreign policy as a representative case of small state behavior in a contested geopolitical environment. Positioned at the intersection of competing regional and global powers, Armenia exemplifies the struggle to balance regional cooperation with broader international integration. Through the lens of strategic flexibility, societal resilience, and institutional adaptation, this study highlights the mechanisms by which small states respond to hybrid threats, navigate asymmetrical dependencies, and pursue multilateral diplomacy. The findings underscore the critical importance of coherent foreign policy, internal cohesion, and diversified international partnerships in reinforcing the security and agency of small states. |
| Keywords: | small states, foreign policy, regional geopolitics, Armenia, international relations |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:opodis:328268 |
| By: | Atoyan, Vardan; Matevosyan, Diana |
| Abstract: | The growing geopolitical tensions and regional instabilities in Eurasia raise urgent questions about the resilience of trade routes and infrastructure connectivity. This paper applies a graphbased approach to model the EU-Asia trade network and explores Armenia's potential as a transit hub within the framework of the Global Gateway strategy. The authors construct a weighted network of major regional players based on bilateral trade volumes, geographic distances, and route accessibility. In this network, nodes represent key countries, while edges capture trade relationships, with weights reflecting trade intensity and logistical characteristics. Using a set of graph-theoretical metrics, including degree centrality, betweenness centrality, closeness centrality, and eigenvector centrality, the authors assess the country's importance within the network, identifying its position as a potential chokepoint or facilitator of alternative trade routes. Stress-testing scenarios, including border closures, sanctions, or the reopening of previously closed borders, are simulated to evaluate the impact on trade flows and regional logistics. These scenarios simulate the dynamic nature of trade flows, considering disruptions that could reshape existing networks. Results indicate significant shifts in the network structure under stress, highlighting opportunities for Armenia to strengthen its strategic position as an alternative node in critical corridors. |
| Keywords: | Graph, Logistic Network, Eurasian Corridors, Trade, Armenia |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:opodis:328267 |
| By: | Gregorio Impavido |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses the relative contribution of domestic and external factors to headline inflation in Kazakhstan. We confirm earlier results that inflation is primarily imported, and we provide novel details on the sources of imported inflation and its transmission channels. We find that domestic factors like fiscal policy and more recently utility tariff increases are the key determinants of domestic inflationary pressures. We provide new information on the likely determinants of inflation expectations through which domestic and external factors affect inflation. We find that monetary policy has only been partially successful at containing domestic and external pressures with insufficient liquidity sterilization, likely contributing to weakening of the interest rate transmission channel. Finally, we find that shocks are highly persistent and bringing back inflation to its target is likely to be a difficult and long process for the Central Bank. |
| Keywords: | Inflation determinants; domestic factors; external factors; monetary policy; fiscal policy; inflation expectationsl SUR |
| Date: | 2025–10–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/209 |