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on Confederation of Independent States |
| By: | Dzhamilya Nigmatulina; Konstantin Egorov; Alexey Makarin; Vasily Korovkin |
| Abstract: | How effective are trade sanctions? We examine the economic impact of the unprecedented sanc- tions imposed on Russia following February 2022, when Western countries banned exports ac- counting for 36% of Russia's prewar import value. Combining novel, manually collected records of these sanctions with Russian customs data, firm balance sheets, domestic railway shipments, and government procurement contracts, we provide the most comprehensive analysis of the economic impact of trade sanctions on a target country to date. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we find that imports of sanctioned country-product varieties into Russia saw a sharp 62% decline following the war's onset. While we see substantial rerouting through third countries, it did not fully offset the direct import losses: total imports of sanctioned products fell by 27%. Firms that had relied on soon-to-be-sanctioned imports experienced a 14% decline in output, also observed in manufacturing, technology, and firms linked to military supply chains. Affected firms also saw reduced government procurement sales and incurred additional losses when their buyers or suppliers were exposed to sanctions. Overall, our findings suggest that, contrary to widespread claims of ineffectiveness, import sanctions on Russia had far-reaching adverse effects. |
| Keywords: | geopolitics, international trade, Russia-Ukraine war, sanctions |
| JEL: | D22 D74 F14 F51 H56 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bge:wpaper:1516 |
| By: | Emiel Sanders; Rudi Vander Vennet (-) |
| Abstract: | How does geopolitical risk affect banks and their lending behavior? Using the attack of Russia on Ukraine in February 2022 as an unanticipated geopolitical risk event and exploiting the syndicated loan exposures of European banks, we document that Russia-exposed banks experience a more pronounced increase of their cost of equity compared to banks with limited Russian lending exposure. In a difference-in-differences setup, we find that Russia-exposed banks significantly curtail their syndicated lending and that this contraction is most pronounced for lending to new borrowers and unsecured loans. We find no relationship between (changes in) the cost of equity of banks and their credit supply. We conclude that geopolitical risk shocks affect banks’ risk profiles and may cause a contraction in lending. Hence, geopolitical risk is a relevant concern for bank supervisors. |
| Keywords: | Geopolitical risk; cost of equity; syndicated lending |
| JEL: | E51 G21 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rug:rugwps:25/1122 |
| By: | Kristina Butaeva (University of Chicago); Lian Chen (University of California, Los Angeles); Steven Durlauf (University of Chicago); Albert Park (Asian Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines intergenerational mobility in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and Russia during their transitions from central planning to market systems. We consider mobility as movement captured by changes in status between parents and children. We provide estimates of overall mobility, which involves mobility during transition to a system’s steady state, as well as steady state mobility, which captures long-run mobility independent of transitional dynamics or shifts in the marginal distribution of outcomes across generations. We further decompose overall mobility into structural and exchange components. We find that the PRC exhibits more overall educational mobility than Russia, mostly because of greater structural mobility, whereas Russia exhibits greater steady-state educational mobility. In contrast, both overall and steady state occupational mobility are similar in the PRC and Russia. Comparing these results to the United States (US), we find steady state mobility in education is substantially higher in the US and Russia compared to the PRC, but occupational steady state mobility is comparable in all three countries. |
| Keywords: | intergenerational mobility;education;occupation;transition economy |
| JEL: | J62 I25 P36 |
| Date: | 2025–10–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:021651 |
| By: | Yana Kostiuk (University of Pavia); Paola Cerchiello (University of Pavia); Arianna Agosto (University of Pavia) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we analyse the immediate market response of the coal industry to the onset of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. We apply the event study methodology to identify the impact of the war on the coal firms’ share prices. Subsequently, we use a Time-Varying Parameter Vector Auto Regressive (TVP-VAR) approach to analyse changes in market interconnectedness. The results reveal significant cumulative average abnormal returns (CAARs) for the Titans sub-sample, indicating that coal-related firms headquartered in the United States, the UK, Canada, and Australia outperformed the stock market on a cumulative basis after the outbreak of the war. Our findings also show that the onset of the Russo-Ukrainian war resulted in an approximately 11% increase in average interconnectedness among the defined groups and led to shifts in their roles as transmitters and receivers. Specifically, while Europe and the Titans transitioned from net transmitters to net receivers, East Asia became a major net transmitter of shock. |
| Keywords: | Russo-Ukrainian war, Event study, Coal Markets |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pav:demwpp:demwp0229 |
| By: | Giovanni Bonaccolto (Department of Economics and Law, ``Kore" University of Enna, Italy); Sayar Karmakar (Department of Statistics, University of Florida, USA); Elie Bouri (Adnan Kassar School of Business, Lebanese American University, Lebanon); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield 0028, South Africa) |
| Abstract: | Previous studies examine spillover effects across the volatility of several cryptocurrencies in the mean or across quantiles without addressing the issue of high dimensionality. Using a large dataset of 50 cryptocurrencies, we employ a LASSO-regularized Quantile VAR framework and show that spillover effects differ across low, medium, and high volatility regimes, especially when evaluated dynamically over time, with sharp increases around tail events such as the war in Ukraine. Importantly, we demonstrate that the LASSO-QVAR model delivers statistically significant forecasting improvements over its univariate counterpart, underscoring the role of interconnectedness in enhancing volatility prediction across cryptocurrencies. |
| Keywords: | Cryptocurrencies, Volatility, LASSO Quantile VAR, Spillovers; Forecasting |
| JEL: | C32 C53 G10 G17 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:202538 |
| By: | Minot, Nicholas; Vos, Rob; Kim, Soonho; Park, Beyeong; Zaki, Sediqa; Mamboundou, Pierre |
| Abstract: | Recent spikes in staple food prices resulting from the invasion of Ukraine have once again highlighted the difficulty faced by low-income countries that rely on imports for a substantial portion of their food supply. To better understand which countries are most affected by higher world food prices, we propose a food import vulnerability index (FIVI). One version of the index describes the vulnerability of each country to higher world prices for each of 15 major staple foods. Another version of the FIVI is a national index, aggregating across the 15 commodities. Both are based on three components, the caloric contribution of the commodity(ies) in the national diet, the dependence on imports, and the level of moderate and severe food insecurity in the country. The values of the FIVI are calculated for 2020, the most recent year for which data are available. The results indicate that countries are most adversely affected by increases in the world price of wheat, rice, and maize, followed by sugar, and vegetable oil. This is because the five commodities listed are both major contributors to the diet in many countries and because countries often depend on imports for a large share of the domestic requirements of these foods. Yemen, Djibouti, and Afghanistan are most vulnerable to increases in world wheat prices, while Liberia, Gambia, and Guinea-Bissau are particularly vulnerable to spikes in rice prices. In the case of maize, Zimbabwe, Lesotho, and Eswatini have the highest vulnerability score. These results should help policymakers and development partners target their efforts to reduce food import vulnerability through policies and programs to strengthen resilience. |
| Keywords: | staple foods; food prices; Ukraine; less favoured areas; vulnerability; food security; imports; price volatility |
| Date: | 2024–03–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:140444 |
| By: | Martin, Will; Vos, Rob |
| Abstract: | Progress toward reducing global hunger has stalled since the mid-2010s. In fact, hunger is on the rise again, driven by slowing economic growth and protracted conflict, intensified by the impacts of climate change and economic shocks in many low- and middle-income countries. In addition, food systems worldwide have suffered disruptions in recent years, caused by the COVID-19-related global recession and associated supply chain disruptions, and exacerbated by the war in Ukraine. These factors have also jeopardized efforts at addressing the challenges to food system sustainability. The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the related sustainable development goals (SDGs), defined in 2015, recognize these challenges and set ambitious targets to end hunger and all forms of malnutrition and to make agriculture and food systems sustainable by 2030. Many other fora have restated and reiterated these ambitions, including the 2021 United Nations Food System Summit (UNFSS). While governments around the world have subscribed to these ambitions, collectively they have not been very specific as to how to achieve the SDGs and related goals and targets, except for three means of implementation (MOI) involving (i) increases in research and development, (ii) reductions in trade distortions, and (iii) improved functioning and reduced volatility in food markets. This paper is part of a wider effort at assessing the international community’s follow-through on the above ambitions and the related (implicit or explicit) commitments made toward action for achieving them. While not presenting new research findings, we bring together available evidence and scenario analyses to assess the progress made toward the ambitions for transforming food systems, the actions taken in regard of the internationally concerted agenda, and the potential for accelerating progress. The number of hungry people in the world has risen from 564 million in 2015, when the SDGs were agreed, to 735 million in 2022. While declines to between 570 and 590 million by 2030 are projected, this is far above the 470 million projected in the absence of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine war. The share of the world’s people unable to afford healthy diets is projected to decline from 42 percent in 2021 to a still far too high 36 percent by 2030. On the means of implementation, levels of spending on agricultural research and development have increased, particularly in key developing countries such as Brazil, China and India. However, rates of investment remain too low for comfort, particularly in low-income countries. Also, little progress has been made in reducing agricultural trade distortions and many countries continue to use trade policy measures, such as export restrictions, which have proven to increase the volatility of both world and domestic food prices. We conclude that progress toward the SDG-2 targets has been dismal, and that the food system challenges have only become bigger. But we also find that it is not too late to accelerate progress and that the desired food system transformation can still be achieved over a reasonable timespan and at manageable incremental cost. Doing so will require unprecedented concerted and coherent action on multiple fronts, which may prove the biggest obstacle of all. |
| Keywords: | food security; food systems; hunger; nutrition; diet; sustainable development goals |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:138940 |
| By: | Mamun, Abdullah; Laborde Debucquet, David |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the drivers of export restrictions on agricultural products based on an original dataset developed at IFPRI. We focus on four food price crises when export restrictions (e.g., ban, tax, licensing etc.) were applied: the 2008 and 2010 food price crises, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the 2022 crisis associated with the Russia-Ukraine war. Although the justifications for such trade policies have been discussed in the literature, the ability to forecast their implementation remains understudied. The probit model used in this study suggests that the inflation rate has a higher power to predict export restrictions than do international commodity prices. The probability of export restrictions increases more when price change is measured from a reference level in the long interval than the short interval. Among the covariates, agricultural land per capita, commodity share in production and export, weather condition increases the chances of imposing export restrictions. Per capita income, population density, share of agriculture in GDP, urbanization rate, political economy indicators - all have a negative influence on this likelihood. |
| Keywords: | agricultural products; commodities; COVID-19; export controls; international trade; war; trade liberalization; exports |
| Date: | 2024–03–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:140687 |
| By: | Bilal Mahli |
| Abstract: | This policy brief analyzes the first 100 days in office of Chancellor Friedrich Merz, which have been marked by an assertive foreign policy, ambitious security reforms, and a shift toward economic pragmatism. Merz has sought to reestablish Germany as a ‘leading middle power’, emphasizing closer European coordination, renewed transatlantic engagement, and unwavering support for Ukraine. However, his approach to the Gaza conflict, characterized by alignment with U.S. positions and reluctance to support ceasefire efforts, has exposed tensions with European Union partners and within his coalition. Domestically, Merz has pushed through a constitutional amendment to enable large-scale infrastructure investment, reversing his party’s traditional stance on borrowing. In security policy, he has launched institutional reforms and proposed significant defense spending increases. Yet, his government has lacked a coherent Africa strategy, focusing narrowly on migration control. The brief concludes that Merz’s ambitions are clear, but their success will depend on coalition cohesion, strategic clarity, and public support. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbecon:pbbm_25 |
| By: | Hainmueller, Jens; Marbach, Moritz; Hangartner, Dominik; Harder, Niklas; Vallizadeh, Ehsan |
| Abstract: | Governments continue to face challenges integrating refugees into the local labor market, and many past interventions have shown limited impact. This study examines the Job-Turbo program, a large-scale initiative launched by the German government in 2023 to accelerate employment among refugees—primarily individuals from Ukraine and eight other major countries of origin. Using monthly administrative panel data from Germany’s network of public employment service offices and a difference-in-differences design, we find that the program significantly increased both caseworker–refugee contact and job placements over a 23-month follow-up period. Among Ukrainian refugees, the exit-to-job rate nearly doubled. Effects were broad-based—spanning demographic subgroups, unemployment durations, skill levels, regions, and local labor-market conditions—and concentrated in regular, unsubsidized employment. The program also raised both the rate and share of sustained job placements, consistent with improved match quality. Other refugee groups saw meaningful gains as well, but increases in job placements were concentrated among males and in low-skilled jobs, with only limited effects for females. We detect no negative spillovers for German or other immigrant job seekers, finding no signs of either resource reallocation or displacement. The results offer insights for governments responding to displacement crises. They indicate that intensified job-search assistance---embedded within the early stage of integration and implemented at scale through public employment infrastructure---can meaningfully improve refugees' labor-market outcomes, even amid significant arrivals. |
| Date: | 2025–10–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:px9ew_v2 |
| By: | Otaviano Canuto; Bruno Saraiva |
| Abstract: | This article assesses the economic performance of the original BRICS economies, relative to the growth and currency appreciation projections presented in the papers that introduced the acronym, prior to the grouping becoming a diplomatic, political, and economic reality. It also discusses the BRICS agenda in the current challenging geopolitical context, in which economic fragmentation tends to raise costs for the global economy and presents considerable obstacles for emerging and developing economies. |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:rpaeco:pp26_25 |
| By: | Assefa, Thomas; Berhane, Guush; Abate, Gashaw T.; Abay, Kibrom A. |
| Abstract: | We revisit the state of smallholder fertilizer demand and profitability in Ethiopia in the face of the recent global fuel–food–fertilizer price crisis triggered by the Russian–Ukraine war and compounded by other domestic supply shocks. We first examine farmers’ response to changes in both fertilizer and food prices by estimating price elasticity of demand. We then revisit the profitability of fertilizer by computing average value–cost ratios (AVCRs) associated with fertilizer application before and after these crises. We use three-round detailed longitudinal household survey data, covering both pre-crisis (2016 and 2019) and post-crisis (2023) production periods, focusing on three main staple crops in Ethiopia (maize, teff, and wheat). Our analysis shows that fertilizer adoption, use, and yield levels were increasing until the recent crises, but these trends seem halted by these crises. We also find relatively large fertilizer price elasticity of demand estimates, ranging between 0.4 and 1.1, which vary across crops and are substantially larger than previous estimates. We find suggestive evidence that households with smaller farm sizes are relatively more responsive to changes in fertilizer prices. We also document that farmers’ response to increases in staple crop prices is not as strong as perceived and hence appears to be statistically insignificant. Finally, we show important dynamics in the profitability of chemical fertilizer. While the AVCRs show profitable trends for most crops, the share of farmers with profitable AVCRs declined following the fertilizer price surge. Our findings offer important insights for policy focusing on mitigating the adverse effects of fertilizer price shocks. |
| Keywords: | fertilizer application; smallholders; household surveys; yield response factor; shock; Ethiopia; Africa; Eastern Africa |
| Date: | 2024–07–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:148984 |
| By: | Marcus Vinicius de Freitas |
| Abstract: | This policy brief explores the transformative role of BRICS as a platform for Global South cooperation and an emerging alternative to Western-dominated governance frameworks. Established with a shared goal of reforming international institutions and addressing global decision-making imbalances, BRICS has evolved from an economic concept into a multifaceted alliance that spans finance, diplomacy, development, and security. As the global order shifts towards multipolarity, BRICS has positioned itself as a key counterbalance to the G7 and G20, advocating for financial sovereignty, inclusive growth, and a more equitable international architecture. |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbecon:pb025_25 |
| By: | Lesya Kolinets; Vygintas Gontis |
| Abstract: | The integration of Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries into the European Economic Area serves as a valuable experiment for the regional economic development theory. The long-lasting convergence of these economies with more advanced Western Europe exhibits a few standard features and varying policies implemented. Even the Baltic countries, which started from very similar starting positions, demonstrate their unique trajectories of development. We employ a panel data regression model that allows coefficients to vary over time to compare the contributions of a few macroeconomic factors to the GDP growth of CEE countries. In particular, we regress the annual change of GDP per capita in PPP terms as a function of achieved GDP, price, trade, investment, and debt levels. Time-varying common slope coefficients in this approach describe the external economic environment in which countries implement their own policies. The panel consists of 11 Central and Eastern European countries (Bulgaria, Czechia, Estonia, Croatia, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovenia, and Slovakia), which have been observed annually from 1995 to 2024. While the main selected factors of this investigation contribute to economic growth, in agreement with previous findings, the role of private debt appears vital in determining the pace of economic growth. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.04211 |