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on Confederation of Independent States |
| By: | Anna Lipinska; Enrique Martínez García; Felipe Schwartzman |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the drivers of the 2020–23 inflation surge, with an emphasis on the similarities and differences across countries, as well as the role that monetary policy frameworks might have played in shaping central banks’ responses. The inflation surge in the U.S. and abroad was set in motion by two global events: the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Pandemic-related supply disruptions, a rotation of consumer spending toward goods, and commodity price increases exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine resulted in unusually large relative price increases, which required time to be absorbed. A simple Phillips curve framework suggests that the inflation surge was mainly driven by “cost push” factors, such as supply shortages and relative price shifts. Tight labor markets contributed to the persistence of above-target inflation. Despite differences in mandates of the monetary policy frameworks, central banks around the world responded similarly to recent global events. |
| Keywords: | international comparison; inflation; global shortages; aggregate demand; aggregate supply; commodity prices; Phillips curve; inflation expectations; monetary policy |
| JEL: | E31 E52 E58 F33 F40 |
| Date: | 2025–09–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:feddwp:101768 |
| By: | Dinarte Diaz, Lelys (World Bank); Gresham, James (World Bank); Lemos, Renata (World Bank); Patrinos, Harry Anthony (University of Arkansas, Fayetteville); Rodriguez-Ramirez, Rony (Harvard University) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides insights into human capital investments during wartime by presenting evidence from 3 experiments of an online tutoring program for Ukrainian students amid Russia’s invasion. Conducted between 2023 and 2024, the experiments reached 10, 000 students across Ukraine. The program offered 3 hours per week of small-group tutoring in math and Ukrainian language over 6 weeks, and used academic and psychosocial tools to address student challenges at different intensities of disruption. Results show that the program led to substantial improvements in learning—0.49 standard deviations in math and 0.40 standard deviations in Ukrainian language—and consistent reductions in stress—0.12 standard deviations. High take-up and engagement rates were observed, and 4 mechanisms were identified as drivers of impact: structured peer interactions, improved attitudes toward learning, enhanced socio-emotional skills, and increased student investments. A complementary experiment using information nudges highlights challenges in promoting parental investments in a conflict setting. The program was cost-effective, with benefit-to-cost ratios ranging from 31-56, and scalable given its reliance on existing infrastructure and capacity. |
| Keywords: | student achievement, tutoring, wartime, Ukraine, mental health |
| JEL: | I21 I24 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18117 |
| By: | Vasily Astrov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Simone Maria Grabner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Leon Podkaminer (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Robert Stehrer (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | Chart of the month US trade deficit and the rise of protectionism by Robert Stehrer Opinion Corner Why have the sanctions against Russia failed? by Vasily Astrov Taking stock three years on from the imposition of wide-ranging Western sanctions against Russia, one needs to acknowledge that their overall effect on the Russian economy has been relatively modest – although in several sectors of the economy their impact is being felt to this day. We argue that there are essentially three factors behind this (i) the ill-conceived design of many sanctions; (ii) the adoption of ‘military Keynesianism’ as a new economic policy paradigm by the Russian government; and (iii) the crucial role of China in absorbing the shock of sanctions. Strength and weakness of Germany’s economy by Leon Podkaminer Germany’s economic strength, reflected in its huge trade surpluses, has hinged on restrictive fiscal and wage policies, which have suppressed domestic demand. However, these policies have increasingly been backfiring, as its trading partners in the EU, induced to emulate the German policy model, have regained the ability to run trade surpluses. The present political change in Germany brings some hope, and a large fiscal stimulus package is on the agenda. But the idea of ‘kick-starting’ the economy by implementing a new version of Agenda 2010 lives on; if implemented, its consequences would be bad for Europe – and for Germany itself. Regional disparities and industrial structures in China by Simone Grabner Since the late 1990s, China has recorded notable regional economic convergence, with backward inland regions recording above-average growth rates. This has been closely linked to major structural shifts while inland provinces have been industrialising, the coastal regions have seen the rise of the services sector. However, the transition from an export-driven to a consumption-based economic model and the growing concentration of high-tech, digital and green industries and innovation in prosperous coastal cities may potentially widen regional disparities in years to come. Forecasts of main economic indicators for Central, East and Southeast Europe for 2025-2027 |
| Keywords: | trade deficit, trade policy, sanctions, economic growth, military Keynesianism, trade diversion, external balances, wage policies, fiscal policies, internal devaluation, regional disparities, industrial structure |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:mpaper:mr:2025-03 |
| By: | Maksym Homeniuk (National Bank of Ukraine) |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates Ukraine's inflation attention threshold using a text-based proxy derived from the relative frequency of the word "inflation" in parliamentary speeches. During a relatively stable macroeconomic period between 2017 and 2022, the estimated threshold is approximately 9-10%. This finding aligns with results obtained using Google Trends data, where attention increased just prior to inflation reaching double-digit levels. Crucially, the parliamentary proxy also facilitates estimation for another stable period preceding the global financial crisis (2002-2007). The remarkably similar threshold estimates across both stable periods suggest that attention dynamics in Ukraine exhibit structural consistency under non-crisis conditions. These findings underscore the value of parliamentary speech analysis as a robust tool for tracking inflation salience in contexts with limited data availability. |
| Keywords: | inflation, attention, parliamentary speeches, threshold regression, monetary policy |
| JEL: | C82 D83 E31 E52 E71 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ukb:wpaper:03/2025 |
| By: | Denly, Michael; Hels, Benjamin |
| Abstract: | We re-analyze Szakonyi (2025), one of the most innovative corruption studies in recent years. Using data from Russia, Szakonyi (2025) estimates the effect of a political regime having compromising information (kompromat) over its politicians on legislative behavior, lobbying, and re-election. We are able to computationally reproduce the author's results, but we had to make changes to the data cleaning script for it to run properly. While one of our robustness tests weakens the author's results, most of our additional tests strengthen or confirm Szakonyi's (2025) original findings. Finally, we provide a discussion of estimands and generalizability that does not invalidate Szakonyi's (2025) findings. Overall, Szakonyi (2025) deserves wide readership and praise for its innovative methods of studying corruption in an authoritarian regime. |
| Keywords: | Corruption, Autocracy, Russia |
| JEL: | D72 D73 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:i4rdps:260 |
| By: | Anaya Longaric, Pablo; Kostakis, Vasileios; Parisi, Laura; Vinci, Francesca |
| Abstract: | Europe’s lack of energy independence raises concerns about its vulnerability to external energy shocks, such as Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. This paper examines how energy shocks impact firm-level investment, comparing European and US firm responses. Using global oil supply news shocks, S&P’s Compustat data, and a local projections approach, the study reveals that European firms significantly cut capital and R&D expenditures after an oil shock, unlike US firms. The disparity is primarily driven by financially constrained firms in energy-intensive sectors. Additionally, differences in capital market structures play a role, as European firms relying more on market-based financing reduce investment by less. Lastly, our analysis confirms that the US shale revolution was a contributing factor in shaping Europe’s relative vulnerability. These findings highlight the need for national and EU policies to securethe energy supply, lower prices, and deepen capital markets, enhancing resilience and future competitiveness amid energy volatility. JEL Classification: D22, E22, F15, Q43 |
| Keywords: | competitiveness, corporate investment, energy, oil shocks |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20253116 |
| By: | Aleksandra Kislenok (Federal Autonomous Scientific Institution «Eastern State Planning Centre») |
| Abstract: | The development of any territorial system is the resulting dynamics of its components – in the case of a regions of the Russian Federation its constituent municipalities. It is at this level that economic agents and residents directly come into contact with the results of state policy to create favorable conditions for doing business and comfortable living. Comparative studies of socio-economic dynamics on a municipal region make it possible to identify territories with similar development characteristics, which forms a rationale for the implementation of targeted regional policy measures in relation to specific groups of territories. The article proposes a methodology for comparative assessment of the level of development of municipalities, based on integral assessments of the achieved level of economic development, economic dynamics and living conditions in the territory. An approach has been developed to group municipalities depending on the integrated estimates obtained in these areas. |
| Keywords: | system of indicators, socio-economic development, municipalities, living conditions |
| JEL: | O18 R12 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aln:wpaper:350-00001-25 |
| By: | Khakimov, Parviz; Aragie, Emerta A.; Goibov, Manuchehr; Ashurov, Timur |
| Abstract: | Findings of recent study shows that in 2021, roughly 5 percent of farms and nearly 14 percent of arable land used professional extension services. Extension service actors in Tajikistan include Ministry of Agriculture, Tajik Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Tajik Agrarian University, government extension specialists at the village level, the private sector, and NGOs, with a total staff of about 2, 250 people, of whom about 600 are trained to provide professional extension services (Muminov 2021). The government’s fiscal space is limited the extent of support to such investments. Thus, there is a notable underinvestment in extension and advisory services (EAS), 2.4 percent of total public expenditure in agriculture sector between 2016-2019 (World Bank 2021). In this brief, for evaluating the potential impact of investment on extension and advisory services to accelerate agricultural transformation and inclusiveness in Tajikistan AFS, we rely on the IFPRI’s Rural Investment and Policy Analysis (RIAPA) economywide dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model which incorporates household survey-based microsimulation and investment modules, and simulates the functioning of a market economy, comprising markets for products and factors which include land, labor, and capital (IFPRI 2023). |
| Keywords: | investment; extension systems; advisory services; agrifood systems; agriculture; Tajikistan; Asia; Central Asia |
| Date: | 2025–06–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ceaspb:31 |
| By: | Khakimov, Parviz; Aragie, Emerta A.; Goibov, Manuchehr; Ashurov, Timur |
| Abstract: | The World Bank’s agriculture sector public expenditure review study (World Bank 2021) findings indicates that public expenditure on agriculture sector remains relatively small at less than one percent of GDP, though grew significantly between 2015 and 2020, and the sector relies heavily on donor financing (54 percent). There is a notable underinvestment in R&D, 0.7 percent of total public expenditure in agriculture sector between 2016-2019, which impacts productivity and climate resilience. In this brief, for evaluating the potential impact of investment on Research and Development (R&D) to accelerate agricultural transformation and inclusiveness in Tajikistan agrifood system (AFS), we rely on the IFPRI’s Rural Investment and Policy Analysis (RIAPA) economywide dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model which incorporates household survey-based microsimulation and investment modules, and simulates the functioning of a market economy, comprising markets for products and factors which include land, labor, and capital (IFPRI 2023). |
| Keywords: | investment; research; development; agrifood systems; agricultural sector; computable general equilibrium models; Tajikistan; Asia; Central Asia |
| Date: | 2025–06–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ceaspb:29 |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Latvia’s successful convergence to euro area income levels has slowed. GDP per capita has fallen behind, including relative to other Baltic states, due to weak total factor productivity and limited capital deepening since the global financial crisis. Additional pressures include rising labor costs, demographic decline, and geopolitical tensions. Although unemployment remains low and inflation has eased, the economy remains vulnerable to external shocks. At the same time, the government faces growing fiscal demands from pensions, health care, defense, energy security, and climate transition, requiring preserved fiscal space for future crises. |
| Date: | 2025–09–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2025/272 |