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on Confederation of Independent States |
| By: | Mariia Vasiakina (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Christian Dudel (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany) |
| Keywords: | Russian Federation, alcoholism, automation, health, risk exposure |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2025-027 |
| By: | Kristina Butaeva; Lian Chen; Steven N. Durlauf; Albert Park |
| Abstract: | This paper examines intergenerational mobility in China and Russia during their transitions from central planning to market systems. We consider mobility as movement captured by changes in status between parents and children. We provide estimates of overall mobility, which involves mobility during transition to a system's steady state, as well as steady state mobility, which captures long-run mobility independent of transitional dynamics or shifts in the marginal distribution of outcomes across generations. We further decompose overall mobility into structural and exchange components. We find that China exhibits more overall educational mobility than Russia mostly due to greater structural mobility, while Russia exhibits greater steady state educational mobility. In contrast, both the overall and steady state occupational mobility is similar in China and Russia. Comparing these results to the US, we find that steady state mobility in education is substantially higher in the US and Russia compared to China, but occupational steady state mobility is comparable in all three countries. |
| JEL: | I24 J62 P2 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34124 |
| By: | Gorodnichenko, Yuriy (University of California, Berkeley); Georgarakos, Dimitris (European Central Bank); Kenny, Geoff (European Central Bank); Coibion, Olivier (University of Texas at Austin) |
| Abstract: | Using novel scenario-based survey questions that randomize the expected duration of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and Middle East conflict, we examine the causal impact of geopolitical risk on consumers’ beliefs about aggregate economic conditions and their own financial outlook. Expecting a longer conflict leads European households to anticipate a worsening of the aggregate economy, with higher inflation, lower economic growth, and lower stock prices. They also perceive negative fiscal implications, anticipating higher government debt and higher taxes. Ultimately, households view the geopolitical conflict as making them worse off financially and it leads them to reduce their consumption. |
| Keywords: | expectations, risk, war, international conflicts, geopolitics, Consumer Expectations Survey. |
| JEL: | D1 E2 E3 F5 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18084 |
| By: | Marek Dabrowski; Christopher Hartwell; Olga Popova; Jan Hagemejer; Vladimir Otrachshenko |
| Abstract: | The Eastern neighbourhood of the European Union (EU), comprising Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, Russia, and Ukraine, has faced persistent economic and geopolitical challenges. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, these nations have grappled with economic transition, political instability, and repeated global crises, including the 2008 financial crash, the 2014–2015 commodity price decline, the COVD-19 pandemic, and the ongoing inflation surge. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has further exacerbated these difficulties, disrupting trade, investment, and energy security while affecting economies across the region. This comprehensive report: Eastern European Economies Amidst Global and Regional Shocks published in series CASE Report analyses the economic impact of these crises, focusing on four key areas: macroeconomic stability, financial sector resilience, external trade and investment, and energy security. While Moldova has been particularly affected by war-related disruptions, Armenia and Georgia have experienced benefits from increased trade and migration inflows from Russia. Additionally, political instability, the rise of authoritarianism in several states, and unresolved territorial disputes continue to shape economic policies and growth prospects. |
| Keywords: | Moldova, economic growth, economic security, energy dependence, foreign trade, financial sector, current account |
| JEL: | O11 O16 O20 |
| Date: | 2025–04–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sec:report:0511 |
| By: | Adrian Lupusor; Corina Gaibu; Ecaterina Rusu; Marina Soloviova; Stas Madan |
| Abstract: | The report provides an in-depth evaluation of Moldova’s capacity to adapt to crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic, the energy crisis, and geopolitical tensions resulting from Russia’s war in Ukraine. It examines Moldova’s position as a small, open economy with significant exposure to external shocks, highlighting vulnerabilities in energy imports, trade imbalances, and political stability. Key topics include Moldova’s shift toward European integration, with milestones such as EU candidate status and expanded trade relations, which have helped reduce reliance on Russia. The report analyzes macroeconomic trends, financial sector stability, and energy dependency, identifying progress in institutional reforms and external support mechanisms that have bolstered the economy. However, ongoing challenges remain, such as inflation, fiscal deficits, and the unresolved Transnistria conflict, requiring targeted policy reforms and sustainable strategies for long-term resilience |
| Keywords: | Moldova, economic growth, economic security, energy dependence, foreign trade, financial sector, current account |
| JEL: | O11 O16 O20 |
| Date: | 2025–02–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sec:report:0510 |
| By: | Dinarte, Lelys; Gresham, James; Lemos, Renata Freitas; Patrinos, Harry A.; Rodriguez-Ramirez, Rony |
| Abstract: | This paper provides insights into human capital investments during wartime by presenting evidence from three experiments of an online tutoring program for Ukrainian students amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Conducted between early 2023 and mid-2024, the experiments reached nearly 10, 000 students across all regions of Ukraine. The program offered three hours per week of small-group tutoring in math and Ukrainian language over six weeks and used academic and psychosocial tools to address student challenges at different intensities of disruption. Results show that the program led to substantial improvements in learning—up to 0.49 standard deviations in math and 0.40 standard deviations in Ukrainian language—and consistent reductions in stress—up to 0.12 standard deviations. High take-up and engagement rates were observed, and four mechanisms were identified as drivers of impact: structured peer interactions, improved attitudes toward learning, enhanced socio-emotional skills, and increased student investments. A complementary experiment using information nudges to increase parental engagement highlights challenges in promoting parental investments in a conflict setting. The program was cost-effective across all experiments, with benefit-to-cost ratios ranging from 31 to 56, and scalable given its reliance on existing infrastructure and teaching capacity. |
| Date: | 2025–09–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11196 |
| By: | Ufuk Akcigit; Furkan Kilic; Somik Lall; Solomiya Shpak |
| Abstract: | As Ukraine emerges from the devastation of war, it faces a historic opportunity to engineer its own Wirtschaftswunder—a productivity-driven economic transformation akin to post-war West Germany. While investment-led growth may offer quick wins, it is efficiency, innovation, and institutional reform that will determine Ukraine’s long-term economic trajectory. Drawing on rich micro-level firm data spanning 25 years, this paper uncovers deep structural distortions that have suppressed creative destruction and productivity in Ukraine. It finds that business dynamism is on the decline, alongside rising market concentration among incumbent businesses, including low productivity state owned enterprises. To inform priorities for reviving business dynamism, this study develops a model of creative destruction drawing on Acemoglu et al. (2018) and Akcigit et al. (2021). The quantitative assessment highlights that policies that discipline entrenched incumbents are the bedrock for reviving business dynamism and engineer Ukraine’s Wirtschaftswunder. Policies targeting specific types of firms have limited efficacy when incumbents run wild. |
| JEL: | E65 O11 O43 P26 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34103 |
| By: | William J. Vogt (The Digital Economist, Washington, DC, USA) |
| Abstract: | Large geopolitical actors display an understanding that the former countries of the Portuguese empire (Portugal, Brazil, Angola, Guinea-Bissau, Cabo Verde, Sao Tome and Principe, Mozambique, Timor-Leste) predominantly border strategic routes namely in the Atlantic Ocean, that include significant amounts of maritime exclusive economic zone control throughout the global seas. In international affairs, these territorial claims constitute important spheres of influence covered under the umbrellas of multiple multilateral organizations, including the European Union (EU), the African Union, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa). Geopolitics practitioners thus have interest in greater touchpoints with/in Portuguese-speaking (Lusophone) institutions like the Comunidade dos Paises de Lingua Portuguesa (CPLP, or the Community of Portuguese-speaking Countries) and similar regional associations connecting Lusophone African states. This paper provides additional foundational evidence about the viability of a Lusophone-first statecraft strategy in security and trade for the benefit of major global actors, with an emphasis on how advanced information communication technology (ICT) and AI policies will contribute to several expected outcomes in constructing physical and media connectivity infrastructures. |
| Keywords: | Portuguese-Speaking, Diplomacy, Geopolitics, Technology, Artificial Intelligence (AI), Multilateral, Infrastructure, Foreign Policy, Lusophone, Africa, Atlantic |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:raiswp:0539 |
| By: | Björn Brey; Joanne Haddad; Lamis Kattan |
| Abstract: | State-led repression of minority identities is a well-documented phenomenon, yet its implications for national identity remain understudied. We examine how the Soviet state-induced famine (1932–33) shapes contemporary Ukrainian national identity through vertical (familial) and horizontal (community/state) transmission. Using newly geocoded individual-level data, we find that individuals from high-famine-exposure areas are more likely to identify as Ukrainian. We document that under Soviet rule, family networks preserved identity, while church closures weakened community transmission. After independence, state-led remembrance efforts, revitalized horizontal transmission. Our findings show how repression and remembrance shape identity persistence and reflect the famine’s lasting influence on Ukrainian-Russian relations. |
| Keywords: | political repression, national identity, intergenerational transmission, historical memory, trade, conflict |
| JEL: | D74 N44 P20 P35 Z13 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12080 |
| By: | Gregorio Impavido |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses the effectiveness of monetary policy in Kazakhstan using a small macro model and identifies alternative plausible economic structures consistent with priors on the sign of responses of macro variables to structural shocks. Monetary policy effectiveness has increased over time. |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy effectiveness; SVARs; parametric restrictions; sign restrictions |
| Date: | 2025–08–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/173 |
| By: | Vîntu, Denis |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the estimation of the unemployment rate in the Republic of Moldova, focusing on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Two forecasting approaches are compared: the traditional ARIMA model and several machine learning models. The performance of these models is evaluated based on prediction accuracy metrics over pre-pandemic and pandemic periods. Results indicate that while ARIMA captures general trends effectively, machine learning models can better adapt to sudden shocks, such as those induced by the pandemic. |
| Keywords: | Simultaneous equations model; Labor market equilibrium; Unemployment rate determination; Wage-setting equation; Price-setting equation; Beveridge curve; Job matching function; Phillips curve; Structural unemployment; Natural rate of unemployment; Labor supply and demand; Endogenous unemployment; Disequilibrium model; Employment dynamics; Wage-unemployment relationship; Aggregate labor market model; Multivariate system estimation; Identification problem; Reduced form equations; Equilibrium unemployment rate |
| JEL: | C30 C31 C32 C33 C51 J64 J65 J68 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:125941 |