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on Confederation of Independent States |
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Issue of 2025–08–25
six papers chosen by |
| By: | Rounak Hande (xKDR Forum); Ayush Patnaik (xKDR Forum); Ajay Shah (xKDR Forum); Susan Thomas |
| Abstract: | With the Russia-Ukraine war evolving into a prolonged war of attrition, the functioning of the two economies has become central. A small but growing literature uses alternative data to measure economic activity, responding to the limitations of official statistics. In this paper, we use nighttime lights ("NTL") data to track economic changes in both countries. Ukraine's NTL has fallen by 50% compared to 2022 levels. In contrast, Russia's aggregate NTL showed virtually no change between 2022 and 2025. Within Russia, the Yamal-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, which produces 90% of the country's gas, recorded substantial NTL growth despite reports of declining national gas production. We also identify growth reversals in regions hundreds of kilometres from the Ukrainian border, likely reflecting the effects of standoff weapons. Similar reversals appear along Russia's Western European border but not along other international frontiers, suggesting uneven enforcement of sanctions. Over the war years, Ukraine's economic activity has shifted westward, while Russia's has moved eastward. |
| JEL: | R11 F51 C80 P25 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:anf:wpaper:40 |
| By: | Zapototskij Oleksandr (National Technical University of Ukraine "Kyiv Polytechnic Institute" [Kiev]) |
| Abstract: | The issue of economic security is of particular importance for Ukraine, as complex internal and external challenges have a direct impact on the functioning of the national economy. In particular, active military aggression by the Russian Federation, macroeconomic instability, reduced investment attractiveness, energy dependence, and lack of domestic resources. All these factors require a conceptual rethinking of approaches to ensuring the economic security of the state. |
| Abstract: | Проблематика економічної безпеки набуває особливого значення для України, оскільки складні внутрішні й зовнішні виклики мають безпосередній вплив на функціонування національної економіки. Зокрема, активна військова агресія з боку Російської Федерації, макроекономічна нестабільність, зниження інвестиційної привабливості, енергетична залежність та нестача внутрішніх ресурсів. Усі ці чинники вимагають концептуального переосмислення підходів до забезпечення економічної безпеки держави. |
| Keywords: | Economic security, economic sector, Ukraine |
| Date: | 2025–04–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05156447 |
| By: | Gorodnichenko, Yuriy (University of California, Berkeley); Vasudevan, Vittal (UC Berkeley) |
| Abstract: | Using a short- and long-term macroeconomic forecasts, we estimate the cost of the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine for countries in Eastern Europe, Caucasus, and Central Asia. Shortly after the Russian attack, the projected cost (cumulative over six years) stood at $2.44 trillion for the region. Professional forecasters predicted a dramatic increase in macroeconomic uncertainty, significant spillover effects, some hysteresis effects as well as a changing nature of business cycles. We also use the war shock to study how professional forecasters acquire and process information. Our results point to state dependence as well as an important role of forward information in shaping macroeconomic outlook of professional forecasters. |
| Keywords: | defense, event analysis, geoeconomics, Ukraine, forecasting, conflict, military, uncertainty |
| JEL: | F51 C53 E3 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18017 |
| By: | Varypaiev, Olexii |
| Abstract: | This article examines the transformation of food culture in Ukraine during the full-scale Russian Ukrainian war (2022 to 2025), interpreting nutrition as a key element of cultural resistance, symbolic survival, and national identity. Based on empirical observations, historical analysis, and interdisciplinary methodology, the study explores how traditional Ukrainian food practices, especially the preparation and collective consumption of dishes such as borshch, varenyky, and salo, function as both a response to material deprivation and a reaffirmation of national belonging. The article highlights the role of wartime kitchens, food volunteering, refugee adaptation, and everyday cooking as domains where meaning is produced and cultural memory is maintained under extreme conditions. Particular attention is given to the symbolic and sensory dimensions of food, where taste and smell evoke collective memory and serve as anchors of psychological resilience in displaced and traumatized communities. The article also explores how the wartime experience reshapes the perception of everyday meals, turning them into rituals of continuity and defiance. Furthermore, it addresses the environmental and ethical challenges faced by food systems during the war, including the degradation and contamination of agricultural soils caused by shelling, chemical exposure, and the destruction of ecosystems. This aspect, often overlooked in philosophical or cultural discourse, reveals the deep entanglement between nutrition, ecology, and conflict. By analyzing food through the lens of philosophical anthropology, memory studies, and the sociology of everyday life, the article proposes that nutrition during wartime transcends physical survival and becomes a political, existential, and ethical phenomenon. It concludes that in the Ukrainian context, food practices offer not only nourishment but also resistance, healing, and the continuity of national identity through embodied and affective experience. |
| Date: | 2025–04–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:9xhkw_v1 |
| By: | Jakub Karnowski; Przemys{\l}aw Szufel |
| Abstract: | Oligarchic control exerts significant distortions on economic efficiency. Ukraine exemplifies this phenomenon, where oligarchs dominate key sectors and achieve economies of scale through vertical integration of coal mines, steel mills, and power plants while controlling critical infrastructure (e.g. access to transportation networks) to stifle competition. Their Soviet-era production chain monopolization strategies, coupled with political patronage networks (including both local and national governments), reinforce systemic inefficiencies and barriers to market entry. Although existing studies highlight the developmental benefits of de-oligarchization, this work advances the literature through computational modeling. We develop an agent-based model of a partially oligarch-controlled economy, where firms with heterogeneous production functions interact within a value-added network. Through numerical simulations, we quantify how different de-oligarchization policies affect aggregate GDP growth. The results indicate that the optimal de-oligarchization strategies are determined by the position of the oligarch in the production chain. Depending on the oligarch's position, dismantling oligarchic structures should either focus on removing oligarchs' access to raw materials or on breaking oligarchs' influence on other transactions in the production chain. |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2508.02949 |
| By: | Vîntu, Denis |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the role of artificial intelligence (AI) in combating money laundering (AML), focusing on a comparative study between Romania and the Republic of Moldova. Romania demonstrates advanced AI integration within its financial institutions, employing machine learning and predictive analytics to enhance transaction monitoring, risk assessment, and regulatory compliance. In contrast, Moldova is in the early stages of adopting AI for AML, facing structural, technical, and regulatory challenges that limit the effectiveness of its anti-money laundering efforts. The study highlights how technological adoption, institutional capacity, and regulatory frameworks intersect to shape AML effectiveness. By analyzing similarities, differences, and lessons learned, the paper provides insights into how AI can strengthen financial integrity while addressing the evolving challenges of illicit financial flows in different national contexts. |
| Keywords: | Anti-Money Laundering, AML, Artificial Intelligence, AI, Financial Crime, Romania, Republic of Moldova, Regulatory Compliance, Transaction Monitoring, Risk Assessment |
| JEL: | G18 G21 K22 O33 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:125824 |