|
on Confederation of Independent States |
| By: | Fungáčová, Zuzana; Solanko, Laura; Weill, Laurent |
| Abstract: | We extend our previous work on bank lending around elections in Russia's electoral autocracy (Fungáécová et al., 2023) by considering the most recent data on bank lending and 2024 presidential election. Unlike the elections held between 2004 and 2019, our findings show no systematic evidence of increased bank lending ahead the 2024 presidential election. This reduced political interference in pre-election lending since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022 may reflect a tendency towards traditional autocracy in Russia. |
| Keywords: | bank, lending, politics, Russia, electoral autocracy, war |
| JEL: | G21 P3 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bofitb:323945 |
| By: | Kosyakova, Yuliya (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Rother, Nina (BAMF-FZ); Zinn, Sabine (DIW); Bartig, Susanne (FU Berlin); Biddle, Louise (DIW); Büsche, Matteo Jacques (DIW); Cardozo Silva, Adriana (DIW); Cumming, Philippa (DIW); Eckhard, Jan (BAMF-FZ); Gatskova, Kseniia (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Koch, Theresa (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Kosyakova, Yuliya (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Marchitto, Andrea (DIW); Schwanhäuser, Silvia (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Siegert, Manuel (BAMD-FZ); Sommer, Elena (DIW); Süttmann, Felix (DIW); Tanis, Kerstin (BAMF-FZ); Rother, Nina (BAMD-FZ); Zinn, Sabine (DIW) |
| Abstract: | "Background to the study and data Basis: - The Russian invasion of Ukraine has caused a massive refugee movement since February 24, 2022, with mostly women and children fleeing to European countries, including Germany. Around one million people from Ukraine have now been living in Germany for some time. - A robust database is essential to gain a differentiated and well-founded understanding of the living situation of these people. High-quality, reliable data based on a carefully developed survey design are crucial to adequately analyze the challenges and needs of the refugees and to develop evidence-based measures. - The IAB-BAMF-SOEP survey meets these high standards. As an annual panel household survey, it has also included Ukrainian refugees since 2023, thus creating the basis for an empirically sound analysis of their realities of life. The study of two arrival cohorts (arrival from February to the end of May 2022 and arrival from June 2022) additionally allows for the analysis of changes in the composition of the group of Ukrainian refugees. - The survey, which took place between July 2023 and early January 2024, was conducted primarily face-to-face (77.2 percent of interviews), supplemented by computer-assisted self-interviews (CASI: 15.4 percent) and online interviews (CAWI: 7.4 percent). A total of 3, 403 individuals from 2, 219 households were interviewed. - The data includes both household and personal level information about living situation, language, employment situation, integration, and plans for remaining in Germany. Newcomers who were interviewed for the first time also answered a life history questionnaire. - Sampling and weighting procedures based on the AZR ensure that the data is representative of Ukrainian refugees during the survey period. - The IAB-BAMF-SOEP Survey of Refugees is a joint project of the Institute for Employment Research (IAB), the Research Center of the Federal Office for Migration and Refugees (BAMF-FZ), and the Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) at DIW Berlin." (Text excerpt, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Keywords: | Bundesrepublik Deutschland ; Ukraine ; Aufenthaltsdauer ; Ausbildungsabschluss ; IAB-Open-Access-Publikation ; berufliche Integration ; Bildungsabschluss ; Bildungsbeteiligung ; Familienstand ; Geflüchtete ; Gesundheitszustand ; Herkunftsland ; Inanspruchnahme ; Kinderbetreuung ; Lebenssituation ; medizinische Versorgung ; Anerkennung ; Rückwanderungsbereitschaft ; Schulbesuch ; Sprachkenntnisse ; IAB-BAMF-SOEP-Befragung von Geflüchteten ; Wohnsituation ; Zukunftsperspektive ; 2023-2024 |
| Date: | 2025–03–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabfob:202505(de) |
| By: | Kosyakova, Yuliya (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Rother, Nina (BAMF-FZ); Zinn, Sabine (DIW); Bartig, Susanne (FU Berlin); Biddle, Louise (DIW); Büsche, Matteo Jacques (DIW); Cardozo Silva, Adriana (DIW); Cumming, Philippa (DIW); Eckhard, Jan (BAMF-FZ); Gatskova, Kseniia (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Koch, Theresa (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Kosyakova, Yuliya (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Marchitto, Andrea (DIW); Schwanhäuser, Silvia (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Siegert, Manuel (BAMD-FZ); Sommer, Elena (DIW); Süttmann, Felix (DIW); Tanis, Kerstin (BAMF-FZ); Rother, Nina (BAMD-FZ); Zinn, Sabine (DIW) |
| Abstract: | "Background to the study and data Basis: - The Russian invasion of Ukraine has caused a massive refugee movement since February 24, 2022, with mostly women and children fleeing to European countries, including Germany. Around one million people from Ukraine have now been living in Germany for some time. - A robust database is essential to gain a differentiated and well-founded understanding of the living situation of these people. High-quality, reliable data based on a carefully developed survey design are crucial to adequately analyze the challenges and needs of the refugees and to develop evidence-based measures. - The IAB-BAMF-SOEP survey meets these high standards. As an annual panel household survey, it has also included Ukrainian refugees since 2023, thus creating the basis for an empirically sound analysis of their realities of life. The study of two arrival cohorts (arrival from February to the end of May 2022 and arrival from June 2022) additionally allows for the analysis of changes in the composition of the group of Ukrainian refugees. - The survey, which took place between July 2023 and early January 2024, was conducted primarily face-to-face (77.2 percent of interviews), supplemented by computer-assisted self-interviews (CASI: 15.4 percent) and online interviews (CAWI: 7.4 percent). A total of 3, 403 individuals from 2, 219 households were interviewed. - The data includes both household and personal level information about living situation, language, employment situation, integration, and plans for remaining in Germany. Newcomers who were interviewed for the first time also answered a life history questionnaire. - Sampling and weighting procedures based on the AZR ensure that the data is representative of Ukrainian refugees during the survey period. - The IAB-BAMF-SOEP Survey of Refugees is a joint project of the Institute for Employment Research (IAB), the Research Center of the Federal Office for Migration and Refugees (BAMF-FZ), and the Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) at DIW Berlin." (Text excerpt, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Keywords: | Bundesrepublik Deutschland ; Ukraine ; Aufenthaltsdauer ; Ausbildungsabschluss ; IAB-Open-Access-Publikation ; berufliche Integration ; Bildungsabschluss ; Bildungsbeteiligung ; Familienstand ; Geflüchtete ; Gesundheitszustand ; Herkunftsland ; Inanspruchnahme ; Kinderbetreuung ; Lebenssituation ; medizinische Versorgung ; Anerkennung ; Rückwanderungsbereitschaft ; Schulbesuch ; Sprachkenntnisse ; IAB-BAMF-SOEP-Befragung von Geflüchteten ; Wohnsituation ; Zukunftsperspektive ; 2023-2024 |
| Date: | 2025–08–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabfob:202505(en) |
| By: | Giancarlo Corsetti; Banu Demir; Beata Javorcik; Banu Demir Pakel; Beata Smarzynska Javorcik |
| Abstract: | Geopolitical fragmentation triggers complex dynamics in international trade. This paper examines the effects of sanctions through the lens of a stylized model and the empirical analysis of Türkiye’s exports to Russia in the aftermath of Western measures imposed on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine in 2022. As sanctions force many exporters to discontinue or reduce their sales in the target country, firms responding to profit opportunities in that market face (i) a rise in the risk of nonpayment, (ii) higher costs of established trading practice, such as making payments in international currencies through international circuits and (iii) reputational risks and the threat of punitive measures, if their trading with the sanctioned country is exposed. We show that, in response to Western sanctions, Turkish firms sharply raised their exports to Russia, charging higher markups and prices, but also increased their reliance on cash- in-advance transactions and invoicing in Turkish liras instead of dollars. In contrast, Turkish affiliates of Western MNCs responded significantly less, if at all, suggesting a desire to avoid reputational costs. For these firms, a back-of-the-envelope calculation points to annualized foregone revenues of $50 million, with a reputational-risk effect equivalent to tariffs of up to 376%. |
| Keywords: | sanctions, trade diversion, dominant currency pricing, producer currency pricing, cash in advance |
| JEL: | F13 F14 F51 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12021 |
| By: | Raymond Fisman; Giovanna Marcolongo; Meng Wu |
| Abstract: | We examine the effects of Ukraine’s economic blockade of the anthracite-rich Donbas region, to demonstrate how trade sanctions’ efficacy can be undermined by trade through non-participatory nations. We document that after the blockade was imposed in March 2017, Russia reported a sharp increase in anthracite imports from Ukraine, while Ukraine reported no exports to Russia at all. We interpret this gap in “mirror statistics” as reflecting a shift in Donbas trade through Russia. Concurrently, Ukraine anthracite imports from Russia increased sharply (from near-zero), indicating that some of the increased supply of anthracite in Russia was exported back to Ukraine. We provide suggestive evidence that Russian traders benefited from monopsony rents, buying low-priced anthracite from Donbas while Russia sold anthracite to Ukraine at prices comparable to other export markets. Overall, our findings highlight some of the economic and geographic features that may raise the cost and limit the efficacy of sanctions. |
| JEL: | F14 F51 Q43 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34097 |
| By: | Schultze, Michelle |
| Abstract: | Kyrgyzstan serves as a key case study for the broader Central Asia–Russia labor pipeline, which supported an estimated 8 million migrants annually in 2020. Prior to the Russo-Ukraine war, remittances from Russia accounted for approximately 30% of Kyrgyzstan’s GDP, driven by over 10% of its population working in Russia. However, understanding wartime migration dynamics is challenging due to suspected political interference in Russian data, restricted foreign access to this data, and the informality that characterizes Central Asian migration patterns. This study incorporates Yandex Wordstat, Google Trends, XGBoost (which outperforms other machine learning methods), and autoregressive models to "nowcast" missing data. The results reveal a push effect linked to war onset in February 2022 and war intensity. However, all three of the analyzed migration datasets suggest a potential delayed labor substitution effect as Central Asian migrants fill vacancies left by conscripted Russian workers, proxied by casualty data from Mediazona and the BBC. The study also examines remittance trends, which seem to increase along with the labor substitution effect after a two-month lag. These results are robust to Russia- and Kyrgyzstan-side socioeconomic controls such as wage levels and population dynamics. This study provides new insight into the largely opaque Central Asia–Russia labor pipeline, a critical element in development policymaking for both regions. It also introduces a novel methodology for nowcasting migration trends, particularly through Yandex Wordstat, which has been largely overlooked in English-language scholarship. |
| Date: | 2025–07–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:z2wch_v1 |
| By: | Olga Bondarenko (National Bank of Ukraine) |
| Abstract: | I propose partial-equilibrium models that describe the dynamics of global wheat and corn markets. These models extend the classic competitive storage framework by incorporating nonstationary variables. They are calibrated using data from Ukraine and key importing and exporting countries. The models enable the endogenous estimation of price trends, based on the observed movements in the underlying variables. This framework provides insights into how involuntary reductions in Ukraine’s global market presence, triggered by russia’s invasion, could have affected trend prices. |
| Keywords: | commodity storage, trends, nonstationary models, numerical methods |
| JEL: | C32 C63 Q11 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ukb:wpaper:02/2025 |
| By: | Fix, Blair |
| Abstract: | In my last post, ‘The Half Life of Empire’, I charted the rise and fall of the British and US empires, as measured by their share of world energy use. Afterwards, several readers requested that I apply the same methods to the rise and fall of the Soviet Union. Here’s my attempt to do so. |
| Keywords: | Britain, empire, energy, imperialism, Russia, Soviet Union, United States |
| JEL: | P1 P5 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:323310 |
| By: | Volz, Ute; Wicknig, Florian |
| Abstract: | We propose novel measures to evaluate the risk profile of longer-term inflation expectations, using data on inflation probabilities from the ECB's Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). Unlike existing indicators, these measures specifically incorporate the central bank's inflation target. This allows for a more precise assessment of forecasters' perceptions of risks to the central bank's ability to achieve its target. Consequently, these measures provide a valuable additional criterion for assessing the degree of expectation anchoring. In contrast to other metrics, our measures indicate that, between 2014 and 2017 as well as during the Covid-19 crisis, professional forecasters saw the risk that inflation could undershoot the target in the longer term. Moreover, our indicators suggest that, following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, survey participants perceived a risk of inflation overshooting the target four to five years ahead. |
| Keywords: | Inflation, Expectations, Monetary Policy, Survey of Professional Forecasters |
| JEL: | E31 E58 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubtps:323949 |
| By: | Mykhailyshyna, Dariia; Zuchowski, David |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of two massive and unexpected inflows of Ukrainians on voting behavior in Poland. The two migration shocks, caused by Russia's aggression against Ukraine in 2014 and 2022, allow us to compare the effects of conflict-induced labor migration and those of refugee inflows. Using an instrumental variable approach, we find that greater exposure to labor migrants reduces support for conservative parties in the short run and subsequently shifts voter preferences toward pro-redistribution parties. We do not find similar effects for refugees, who, unlike temporary labor migrants, had access to social benefits. Exposure to both types of Ukrainian migration leads to a decrease in far-right voting. This effect emerges only after the salience of Ukrainian migrants increases due to the escalation of Russia's aggression and the rise of anti-Ukrainian rhetoric from the Polish far-right. The backlash from Polish voters against the far-right rhetoric is ten times stronger in areas exposed to refugees than to labor migrants. Our results are robust to the use of a number of instruments and several sensitivity checks. |
| Keywords: | Immigration, Refugees, Political Economy, Voting, Poland, Ukraine |
| JEL: | D72 F22 J61 P16 R23 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1649 |
| By: | Burilkov, Alex; Bushnell, Katelyn; Mejino-López, Juan; Morgan, Thomas; Wolff, Guntram B. |
| Abstract: | This report updates and expands the data-driven work of our initial study from September 2024, which concluded that Europe would only be fit for war in several decades. We show that the situation today is even more concerning if Europe aims to be fit for war by 2030. First, Russia continues to outproduce four European countries across multiple weapon systems. We demonstrate that production must increase by a factor of around five to tilt the balance decisively in Europe's favour. Procurement needs to accelerate and be frontloaded, as delivery delays of three years or more persist. Second, transatlantic tensions are weakening the strength of the U.S. security guarantee. Europe depends heavily on the U.S. not only for readily deployable troops but also for strategic enablers. While overall U.S. weapon imports are not excessive, reliance on American systems in critical modern capabilities remains a concern. Third, military strategy and technology are evolving rapidly. Military planners must modernise weapons and strategy while simultaneously scaling existing and effective systems - a major challenge for often slow and bureaucratic procurement structures. Investment in European technology is essential for modernisation. European weapons tend to be expensive due to low production volumes in a fragmented market; a focus on cost-effectiveness is vital to ensure the EU's planned €800 billion defence spending is sufficient and fiscally sustainable. |
| Keywords: | Defence, Armament, Weapon industry, Budget, Germany, Europe, Russia |
| JEL: | H41 H56 H60 L64 N44 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkrp:323950 |
| By: | König, Leonard Maximilian |
| Abstract: | This study explores the interplay of issue salience and affective signals in Swiss public reactions to government measures on the Reddit forum r/Switzerland during the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war. Using an Exploratory Data Analysis approach, this study applied topic modeling (BERTopic) to a large corpus of posts (2019-2022) to identify shifts in online public attention and emotional responses, and transformer-based sentiment and emotion analysis to quantify sentiment and discrete emotions as affectives. The results reveal a Swiss online public that is highly responsive to events, with attention shifting rapidly, and whose discourse is deeply imbued with emotional content, predominantly negative in the face of restrictive policies or unsettling international developments. These insights underscore the value of computational social science in unpacking the complexities of online public opinion and offer a foundation for future research into the evolving nature of digital democracy and crisis governance. |
| Date: | 2025–07–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:28exs_v2 |
| By: | Adam Geršl (Charles University); Pervin Dadashova (National Bank of Ukraine); Yuliya Bazhenova (National Bank of Ukraine); Anatolii Hlazunov (National Bank of Ukraine; Kyiv School of Economics); Danylo Krasovytskyi (National Bank of Ukraine; Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv) |
| Abstract: | This study introduces the financial cycle index as a means to identify the position of the Ukrainian economy in the financial cycle. The index encompasses 16 indicators aggregated into four subindices that capture cyclical systemic risks stemming from the immoderate debt burden of the private sector, the easing of lending conditions, excessive growth of real estate prices, and macroeconomic imbalances. This financial cycle measure can be used as one of a number of guidelines when making policy decisions on the use of countercyclical prudential instruments to prevent the accumulation of cyclical systemic risks and to stabilize the financial system in a timely manner. |
| Keywords: | financial cycle, credit-to-GDP gap, financial cycle index, countercyclical capital buffer |
| JEL: | E32 E51 E58 G01 G21 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ukb:wpaper:01/2025 |
| By: | Fuhrhop, Pia |
| Abstract: | Der Nato-Gipfel in Den Haag ist glimpflich verlaufen. Generalsekretär Mark Rutte und die europäischen Bündnispartner konnten einen Eklat mit US-Präsident Donald Trump vermeiden. Die Mitgliedstaaten haben sich für die kommende Dekade auf das Ziel geeinigt, 5 Prozent ihrer jeweiligen Wirtschaftsleistung für Verteidigung auszugeben, und den neuen Fähigkeitsanforderungen der Nato ihren Segen gegeben. Der Ukraine wurde nicht mehr ausdrücklich die Beitrittsperspektive zugesichert. In der Abschlusserklärung des Gipfels ist nur noch vage vom Recht der Mitglieder die Rede, dem Land beizustehen. Beiträge zur militärischen Unterstützung Kyjiws lassen sich aber auf das Nato-Ausgabenziel anrechnen, und Russland wird immerhin noch als langfristige Bedrohung der Allianz benannt. Die gelungene Schadensbegrenzung kann indes nicht darüber hinwegtäuschen, wie fragil die transatlantischen Beziehungen sind. Bruchlinien zeigen sich auch zwischen den Europäern. Um das US-Engagement in Europa aufrechtzuerhalten, müssen Deutschland und seine europäischen Partner nicht nur ihre Ausgaben erhöhen, sondern die Zukunft der Allianz politisch und militärisch gestalten. |
| Keywords: | North Atlantic Treaty Organization (Nato), Nato-Gipfel in Den Haag 2025, Nato-Generalsekretär Mark Rutte, US-Präsident Donald Trump, Nato-Ausgabenziel, Fähigkeitsziele, transatlantische Beziehungen, Verteidigungsindustrie, Rüstungskooperation |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpakt:321900 |
| By: | Yusifzada, Tural; Cömert, Hasan; Ahmadov, Vugar |
| Abstract: | This study introduces a novel composite approach to nonlinear inflation dynamics in identifying historical inflation patterns and forecasting future regime shifts. Assuming inflation's responsiveness to its determinants varies across inflation regimes and that inflation shock magnitude shapes the dynamics, we endogenously identify distinct inflation regimes and analyze nonlinear behaviors within such regimes for the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) and Türkiye. In the first stage of our analysis, we employ a Hidden Markov Regime Switching Model combined with Monte Carlo simulations to establish high- and low- inflation thresholds. In the second stage, we utilize an ordered probit model to identify nonlinear probabilistic relationships between inflation regimes and key drivers of inflation such as unit labor costs, exchange rates, and global inflation. Our method achieves over 90% accuracy in predicting inflation regimes based on historical data. It also shows particularly strong out-of-sample performance in the post-pandemic period, outperforming the forecasts of international financial institutions. Even without prior knowledge of exogenous variables, the method anticipates re- gime shifts in five of the six countries analyzed for 2022 and 2023. Our approach offers researchers and central bankers a robust alternative analytical framework for managing high- and low-inflation environments where traditional linear or equilibrium-based models fall short. |
| Keywords: | high inflation, regime switching model, probit model, early warning |
| JEL: | E31 E37 E12 C24 C51 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bofitp:323946 |
| By: | Matthes, Jürgen |
| Abstract: | Compared to 2020, the deficit in merchandise goods trade with China is 3.6 times higher for Germany in 2025 (annualised based on data from January to April 2025) and it has doubled for the Euro area. However, the nominal exchange rate of the Yuan against the Euro has hardly changed between 2020 and 2025. This is all the more striking as European goods have become much more expensive: Producer prices have risen by more than 35 per cent in Germany and the Euro area compared with early 2020, whereas Chinese producer prices have hardly increased at all. The immense producer price divergence is mostly due to an external shock in Europe that resulted from supply chain restrictions in the course of the COVID-19-pandemic and from the energy cost increases after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This constellation has caused a very large real appreciation (based on producer prices) of the Euro against the Yuan of more than 40 per cent for Germany and for the Euro area between early 2020 and spring 2025. The resulting huge cost disadvantage has likely contributed considerably to the rise in the trade deficit as an appreciation of the Euro renders European exports more expensive and imports from China less costly. Moreover, the real appreciation appears to be an important reason why about half of German industrial firms facing Chinese competition reported in 2024 that Chinese competitors undercut their prices by more than 30 per cent (Matthes, 2024). This large European cost disadvantage would have been prevented if the Yuan had appreciated against the Euro to a significant degree. In fact, a rising trade deficit leads to higher netdemand for Yuan in Euro on the exchange rate market as European importers sell Euro to obtain Yuan in order to buy goods from Chinese sellers. Thus, the Yuan should have appreciated if it was floating freely. However, the Yuan exchange rate is managed by the central bank of China relative to the US Dollar and to a basket of other currencies. As the Yuan did not appreciate against the Euro, the question arises whether this is a case of currency manipulation and whether China's significant cost advantage can be deemed unfair. To investigate this question, also other components of the bilateral balance of payments between the Euro area and China have to be taken into consideration as they also influence the net demand for Yuan in Euro. Indeed, the balances in services trade and in primary incomes (other components of the current account apart from the balance in merchandise goods trade) are positive. Thus, these components reduce the net demand for Yuan in Euro that is caused by the negative goods trade balance, but only to a small degree. Moreover, also capital flows have to be considered (that are measured in the financial account balance). However, there is a lack of data for portfolio investment inflows from China to the Euro area so that total capital inflows cannot be calculated. However, this missing component can be estimated (Chapter 3.2). Based on this estimation, the overall change in the net demand for Yuan in Euro between 2020 and 2024 can also be estimated: it has significantly risen by EUR 125 billion. These findings provide strong indications for currency manipulation and for a significant and unfair undervaluation of the Yuan against the Euro. If there had been a free and market-based bilateral exchange rate market, the rising net demand for Yuan in recent years should have led to a significant appreciation of the Yuan against the Euro. As this was prevented by the central bank of China's currency management policies, a considerable unfair price advantage for China has resulted, which comes at the expense of European companies that compete with Chinese firms on the world market. The large increase in the merchandise trade deficit with China is a clear indication of the relevance of the Yuan's undervaluation against the Euro. As European industry is seriously threatened by this development, trade policy action is urgently warranted in order to re-establish a level playing field. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkrep:323227 |
| By: | Arellano-Bover, Jaime (Yale University, IZA, CESifo); San, Shmuel (Hebrew University of Jerusalem) |
| Abstract: | We study how job mobility, firms, and firm-ladder climbing can shape immigrants’ labor market success. Our context is the mass migration of former Soviet Union Jews to Israel during the 1990s. Once in Israel, these immigrants faced none of the legal barriers that are typically posed by migration regulations around the world, offering a unique backdrop to study undistorted immigrants’ job mobility and resulting unconstrained assimilation. Rich administrative data allows us to follow immigrants for up to three decades after arrival. Differential sorting across firms and differential paysetting within firms both explain important shares of the initial immigrant-native wage gap and subsequent convergence dynamics. Moreover, immigrants are more mobile than natives and faster at climbing the firm ladder, even in the long term. As such, firm-to-firm mobility is a key driver of these immigrants’ long-run prosperity. Lastly, we quantify a previously undocumented job utility gap when accounting for non-wage amenities, which exacerbates immigrant-native disparities based on pay alone. |
| Keywords: | JEL Classification: |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:764 |
| By: | Lambrecht, Isabel B.; Mardonova Tolibkhonovna, Mohru; Pechtl, Sarah; Teirlinck, Charlotte |
| Abstract: | Labor migration is generally motivated by the prospect of higher earnings abroad, and many migrants support their left-behind household members through remittances. Migrants’ long-term absence from home may, however, also affect intra-household dynamics among those remaining behind. Relying on primary qualitative data as well as quantitative data from 938 married women, we analyze empowerment impacts of migration on women in rural southern Tajikistan. Tajikistan is one of the most remittance-dependent countries in the world. A large share of young men migrates internationally, leaving behind – and often supporting – a multi-generational household. Yet, strong social norms limit the decision-making power and mobility of women, particularly of young women. Whereas senior women report noticeable differences when their spouses migrate, this is far less so for young women who live with their parents-in-law. Our study demonstrates that accounting for a respondent’s position within the household is key to understanding empowerment outcomes of its members. |
| Keywords: | migration; gender; households; women's empowerment; Tajikistan; Asia; Central Asia |
| Date: | 2025–07–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:175568 |
| By: | Evžen Kočenda; Ichiro Iwasaki; Evžen Kocenda |
| Abstract: | We investigate the determinants of firm survival in 17 emerging European markets during the dual crises of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russo-Ukrainian war. Using a large dataset of over 59, 000 firms and employing a Cox proportional hazards model, the study evaluates how firm-specific characteristics, regional socio-economic conditions, and institutional quality shaped survival outcomes between 2020 and 2023. The analysis reveals that firm exit was more prevalent in EU member states, likely due to stricter crisis-related restrictions. Socio-economic variables such as population density, tourism dependence, and health expenditures played a critical role, while institutional quality, contrary to expectations, was associated with higher exit rates during crises. The banking sector played a role in influencing firm resilience through credit provision and financial support mechanisms. The Russo-Ukrainian war further amplified survival risks, especially for firms located in countries geographically or economically exposed to the conflict. The findings offer valuable insights for designing targeted policy interventions aimed at enhancing business resilience in vulnerable and institutionally diverse environments. |
| Keywords: | firm survival, banking sector, covid pandemic, Russo-Ukrainian war, Central and Eastern Europe, emerging markets, survival and exit determinants |
| JEL: | C14 D02 D22 G33 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12005 |
| By: | Pouriya Khalilian; Amirhossein N. Golestani; Mohammad Eslamifar; Mostafa T. Firouzjaee; Javad T. Firouzjaee |
| Abstract: | Financial markets are dynamic, interconnected systems where local shocks can trigger widespread instability, challenging portfolio managers and policymakers. Traditional correlation analysis often miss the directionality and temporal dynamics of information flow. To address this, we present a unified framework integrating Transfer Entropy (TE) and the N-dimensional Kramers-Moyal (KM) expansion to map static and time-resolved coupling among four major indices: Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC), WTI crude oil (WTI), gold (GC=F), and the US Dollar Index (DX-Y.NYB). TE captures directional information flow. KM models non-linear stochastic dynamics, revealing interactions often overlooked by linear methods. Using daily data from August 11, 2014, to September 8, 2024, we compute returns, confirm non-stationary using a conduct sliding-window TE and KM analyses. We find that during the COVID-19 pandemic (March-June 2020) and the Russia-Ukraine crisis (Feb-Apr 2022), average TE increases by 35% and 28%, respectively, indicating heightened directional flow. Drift coefficients highlight gold-dollar interactions as a persistent safe-haven channel, while oil-equity linkages show regime shifts, weakening under stress and rebounding quickly. Our results expose the shortcomings of linear measures and underscore the value of combining information-theoretic and stochastic drift methods. This approach offers actionable insights for adaptive hedging and informs macro-prudential policy by revealing the evolving architecture of systemic risk. |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2507.09554 |