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on Confederation of Independent States |
| By: | Vasily Astrov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Alexandra Bykova (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Selena Duraković (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Meryem Gökten (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Richard Grieveson (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Maciej J. Grodzicki; Doris Hanzl-Weiss (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Gabor Hunya (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Branimir Jovanović (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Niko Korpar (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Dzmitry Kruk; Sebastian Leitner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Isilda Mara (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Emilia Penkova-Pearson; Olga Pindyuk (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Sandor Richter (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Marko Sošić; Bernd Christoph Ströhm (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Maryna Tverdostup (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | wiiw winter forecast update Growth mostly firming, despite major external headwinds and uncertainty Economic forecasts for Eastern Europe for 2025-27 The economic outlook for Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe (CESEE) in 2025 is mixed, with overall growth projected to slow to 2.7%. However, this slowdown is primarily due to weaker growth in Russia, with most other countries either maintaining 2024’s growth rate or expanding at a faster pace than last year. Consumption, investment, and EU funds are expected to drive growth, but weak external demand and inflation concerns are significant headwinds that will prevent a faster rate of expansion. The likelihood of new US tariffs, and continued geopolitical tensions, represent downside risks to growth. Executive summary by Richard Grieveson Winter 2024/2025 interim forecast update by Statistics Department 1. Global assumptions Bracing for impact by Richard Grieveson 2. CESEE outlook Growth mostly firming, despite major external headwinds and uncertainty by Richard Grieveson, Vasily Astrov, Meryem Gökten, Maciej J. Grodzicki, Branimir Jovanović and Olga Pindyuk 3. Country updates Albania Tourism momentum and economic growth continue by Isilda Mara Belarus Growth slowdown ahead by Dzmitry Kruk Bosnia and Herzegovina Historic increase in the minimum wage to boost the economy by Selena Duraković Bulgaria Schengen Area membership expected to boost the economy by Emilia Penkova-Pearson Croatia Among the euro area’s top performers by Bernd Christoph Ströhm Czechia Domestic strength offsetting external weakness by Richard Grieveson Estonia Economic recovery firming by Maryna Tverdostup Hungary Budget consolidation or a new attempt to accelerate growth? by Sándor Richter Kazakhstan Growth acceleration amid anticipated oil sector recovery by Alexandra Bykova Kosovo Resilient and steady growth by Isilda Mara Latvia Slower-than-expected recovery ahead by Sebastian Leitner Lithuania Domestic and foreign demand driving economic recovery by Sebastian Leitner Moldova Upswing held back by energy crisis by Gábor Hunya Montenegro Hints of growth amidst EU accession hopes by Marko Sošić North Macedonia Still searching for direction by Branimir Jovanović Poland Strong growth driven by domestic demand by Maciej J. Grodzicki Romania Modest recovery from near-stagnation by Gábor Hunya Russia Stubborn inflationary pressures pose a policy dilemma by Vasily Astrov Serbia Moment of truth by Branimir Jovanović Slovakia Start of fiscal consolidation by Doris Hanzl-Weiss Slovenia Despite industry worries, a year of solid growth ahead by Niko Korpar Turkey Navigating a soft landing amid global uncertainty by Meryem Gökten Ukraine Weak growth amid huge uncertainty by Richard Grieveson |
| Keywords: | CESEE, economic forecast, Central and Eastern Europe, Western Balkans, EU, euro area, CIS, war in Ukraine, energy dependence, EU accession, EU Recovery and Resilience Facility, economic growth, labour markets, inflation, monetary policy, fiscal policy, GDP, consumer prices, unemployment, current account, fiscal balance, policy rate, exchange rate, political risk, FDI, exports, imports |
| JEL: | E20 E21 E22 E23 E24 E31 E32 E5 E62 F21 F31 H60 I18 J20 J30 O47 O52 O57 P24 P27 P33 P52 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:mpaper:mr:2025-01 |
| By: | Costa-Font, Joan; Salmasi, Luca; Zaccagni, Sarah |
| Abstract: | We study the potential behavioural spillover effects of a workplace smoking ban (WSB) on a variety of health-related behaviours as well as on people who are not directly impacted by the bans. Drawing on quasi-experimental evidence comparing employed and unemployed individuals in Russia, we document that individuals who give up smoking are less likely to drink or cut back on alcohol consumption. Furthermore, we show that as expected the WSB exerts an impact on the health behaviours of those who aren’t directly exposed to the reform, such as never smokers. Finally, the effects of the WSB are driven by changes among men, 60 percent of whom were smoking before the ban. |
| Keywords: | joint formation of behaviours; workplace smoking bans; behavioural spillovers; smoking; drinking; physical activity; health identity; Russia |
| JEL: | I18 H75 L51 |
| Date: | 2025–07–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:128606 |
| By: | Akcigit, Ufuk; Kilic, Furkan; Lall, Somik; Shpak, Solomiya |
| Abstract: | As Ukraine emerges from the devastation of war, it faces a historic opportunity to engineer its own Wirtschaftswunder—a productivity-driven economic transformation akin to post-war West Germany. While investment-led growth may offer quick wins, it is efficiency, innovation, and institutional reform that will determine Ukraine’s long-term economic trajectory. Drawing on rich micro-level firm data spanning 25 years, this paper uncovers deep structural distortions that have suppressed creative destruction and productivity in Ukraine. It finds that business dynamism is on the decline, alongside rising market concentration among incumbent businesses, including low productivity state owned enterprises. To inform priorities for reviving business dynamism, this study develops a model of creative destruction drawing on Acemoglu et al. (2018) and Akcigit et al. (2021). The quantitative assessment highlights that policies that discipline entrenched incumbents are the bedrock for reviving business dynamism and engineer Ukraine’s Wirtschaftswunder. Policies targeting specific types of firms have limited efficacy when incumbents run wild. |
| Date: | 2025–07–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11174 |
| By: | Bund, Jakob |
| Abstract: | Authoritarian states are increasingly leveraging non-state cyber capabilities to expand their operational reach, thereby challenging conventional distinctions between state and non-state activity. This practice complicates attribution and presents obstacles for coordinated international responses. Moreover, as cyber threats become more complex and entangled, effective countermeasures necessitate enhanced information sharing, trusted partnerships and the development of response tools that function independently of political attribution. |
| Keywords: | authoritarian states, cyber operations, enforcement, Russia, China, state and non-state activity, European Repository of Cyber Incidents (EuRepoC), NotPetya, North Korea |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:321895 |
| By: | Heng-fu Zou |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a mathematically rigorous and historically informed the ory of violent revolutions, treating them as nonlinear dynamical systems governed by fluid dynamics, energy dissipation, and structural feedback. Revolutionary processes-across France, Russia, China, and Cambodia-are modeled through continuity equations, Navier-Stokes dynamics, and vorticity flows, cap turing ideological momentum, factional swirl, and collapse. We analyze shocks, turbulence, energy cascades, and boundary-layer separation to explain how rev- olutions detach from elite control and enter hysteresis, where irreversible po litical and institutional deformation occurs. The framework culminates in a Hamiltonian phase-space model of revolution, illustrating trajectories through attractors, bifurcations, and limit cycles. By unifying physics and political his- tory, this model offers predictive insight into the life cycles of revolutions-and the irreversible scars they leave behind. |
| Keywords: | revolution, fluid dynamics, nonlinear systems, hysteresis, phase space, political instability |
| Date: | 2025–05–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cuf:wpaper:770 |
| By: | Andrew Burlinson (School of Economics, University of Sheffield, Sheffield S10 2TU, UK); Monica Giulietti (Nottingham University Business School, University of Nottingham and UK Energy Research Centre, UK); Michael Waterson (Department of Economics, University of Warwick, UK); Victor Ajayi (Energy Policy Research Centre, University of Cambridge, UK) |
| Abstract: | Two exogenous events, coupled with substantial data on household electricity and gas usage, enable us to examine detailed consumption effects of recent rises in energy prices in Britain resulting from the Russia-Ukraine conflict. We isolate two groups of consumers with similar characteristics, all initially on fixed price tariffs. One group, forcibly moved to variable price tariffs, suffered the price shock, the others remained on fixed price tariffs. Our difference-in-differences framework captures the impacts on the former group, finding significant negative consumption effects, particularly regarding gas usage. Differing effects across richer and poorer households are revealed, the poorest greatly reducing consumption. |
| Keywords: | Energy consumption, difference-in-differences, energy crisis, smart meters |
| JEL: | L94 E31 D12 I19 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:shf:wpaper:2025008 |
| By: | Greyling, Jan C.; Pardey, Philip G. |
| Abstract: | The tide is turning on the trajectory of farm structures throughout the world. Drawing on a new, balanced-panel dataset for 168 countries covering 1971–2020, we estimate that farm numbers rose from 426 million to 668 million, while measured farmland has contracted since about 1980, and average farm size has shrunk. Yet recent movements signal a historic pivot. As agri-food economies mature—with higher incomes, ageing and slowing populations, and rapid urbanization—the long-standing pattern of ever-more farms and ever-smaller holdings is no longer universal. The global weighted mean area per farm fell from 7.6 ha to 4.5 ha over the past half-century, but the rate of decline moderated to 0.74% per year in the past decade, down from 0.85% pr year previously. Seven countries—China, India, Indonesia, Russia, Nigeria, Bangladesh, and Ethiopia—contain 70% (469 million) of all farms; their dominance distorts geographically divergent trajectories worldwide. For at least several decades, the median farm worldwide has crept up in size to 5.3 ha in 2020, while the unweighted mean has climbed to 58.0 ha. The roster of countries with stable or rising average farm sizes increased from 88 (62.0%) in the 1970s to 108 (66.2%) in the 2010s, with consolidation now evident in China, Thailand, and Vietnam as well as in high-income economies. Consolidation usually entails fewer farms and, in many cases, shrinking farmland area as well as increasing average farm sizes. A statistical decomposition confirms that, globally, shifts in farm numbers—rather than changes in total farmland—principally (though not everywhere, all the time) drive movements in mean farm size, underscoring the demographic and structural forces reshaping agriculture worldwide. |
| Keywords: | Land Economics/Use |
| Date: | 2025–08–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:umiswp:364278 |
| By: | Heng-fu Zou |
| Abstract: | We develop a dynamic differential game model of strategic arms accumulation between two rival states, reflecting the security dilemma of major geopolitical adversaries such as the United States and China or the United States and the former Soviet Union. The model features both determinis tic and stochastic formulations, where each country maximizes intertem poral utility over its own military stock while negatively internalizing the rival's arms buildup. We derive Markov-Perfect Nash equilibrium strate gies in both open-loop and feedback forms, with special emphasis on the characterization and solution of the coupled Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) and Fokker-Planck-Kolmogorov (FPK) partial diferential equa tions. In the linear-quadratic case, we solve the time-consistent Riccati equations and analyze the elasticity of optimal strategies with respect to changes in strategic preferences, investment costs, and external threats. The model is extended to include regime shocks-discontinuous jumps in threat perception or strategic aggressiveness-which may destabilize de terrence and trigger explosive arms escalation. Comparative statics from Riccati dynamics reveal thresholds beyond which deterrence collapses and feedback control solutions blow up in finite time. We also explore welfare trade-offs, deterrence sustainability, and policy implications of dynamic treaties. The mathematical framework developed here provides a foun dation for modeling arms races as nonlinear stochastic systems under en- dogenous expectations, belief dynamics, and political instability. |
| Keywords: | Strategic arms race, differential games, Nash equilibrium, feedback strategy, Riccati equation, Fokker–Planck equation, HJB equation, stochastic dynamics, regime shocks, deterrence collapse, Markov–Perfect equilibrium, dynamic stability, military investment, geopolitical competition, arms control treaties |
| Date: | 2025–07–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cuf:wpaper:773 |
| By: | Javier Sánchez-García (UAL - Universidad de Almería); Raffaele Mattera (UNIROMA - Università degli Studi di Roma "La Sapienza" = Sapienza University [Rome]); Salvador Cruz-Rambaud (UAL - Universidad de Almería); Roy Cerqueti (GRANEM - Groupe de Recherche Angevin en Economie et Management - UA - Université d'Angers - Institut Agro Rennes Angers - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement, UNIROMA - Università degli Studi di Roma "La Sapienza" = Sapienza University [Rome]) |
| Abstract: | The Russia–Ukraine conflict highlighted how important energy is for the surveillance of economies worldwide. Both war and economic sanctions inevitably affected energy-related commodity prices. Although shocks in energy commodities are known to have an effect on financial stability, this information is not included in existing financial stability indicators. In this paper, we first provide empirical evidence on the existing relationship between energy-related commodities and financial stability in the EU, UK and US, as well as their importance in the forecast of economic downturns. Based on this evidence, we propose a new composite indicator of financial stability which incorporates relevant information from the energy markets. The suitability of the new composite indicator is assessed by its ability to track financial, economic, and energy crises. |
| Keywords: | Energy market, Financial stress, Dynamic Factor Model (DFM), Composite indicators, Macro-financial linkages, Real-time macroeconomics |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05115049 |
| By: | Brandtjen, Roland |
| Abstract: | This paper compares the inter-war 1930s with the post-2014 international system to identify structural continuities that threaten contemporary stability. A tri-layer literature review integrates archival records, modern governmental datasets and global opinion surveys, normalising disparate time-series for direct cross-epoch comparison. Four recurring fault lines emerge: expansionist revisionism, democratic backsliding, intergenerational economic strain and multilateral erosion. Case comparisons-Germany-Austria 1938 vs. Russia-Crimea 2014; League of Nations budget collapse vs. today's UN funding crisis-demonstrate how weak enforcement and fiscal shortfalls embolden aggressors and extremist movements. Quantitative indicators show youth incomes 13% below parental cohorts across the OECD and UN humanitarian appeals funded at only 13%, echoing Great-Depressionera precarity and institutional paralysis. Yet divergences-nuclear deterrence, digital mobilisation and global value-chain interdependence-moderate direct analogies, constraining full-scale war while amplifying ideological contagion. Early-warning thresholds for expansionism, democratic erosion, economic discontent and multilateral under-funding are proposed to guide automatic policy responses. Recognising both historical rhymes and contemporary differences is essential to forestall a reprise of the 1930s' systemic collapse. |
| Keywords: | Comparative politics, Democratic backsliding, Territorial revisionism, Multilateral institutions, Historical institutionalism |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iubhbm:323585 |