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on Confederation of Independent States |
| By: | Hernandez, Manuel A.; Ceballos, Francisco; Berrospi, Maria Lucia; Perego, Viviana Maria Eugenia; Brown, Melissa; Lopez, Elena Mora |
| Abstract: | Following recent major global shocks that resulted in significant spikes in international food and fertilizer prices, this study analyses the degree of price and volatility transmission from international to selected domestic food and fertilizer markets across seven countries in Central America. We follow a multivariate GARCH approach using monthly data over the period 2000–2022. We find varying results by country and commodities and an overall low to moderate degree of price transmission in levels, but a stronger degree of volatility transmission. We similarly observe some changes in the degree of co-movement between international and domestic price variations over time—depending on the market and commodity under consideration—including after the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as well as after the 2007-2008 food price crisis. Back-of-the-envelope calculations of the effect of an increase in international prices of different food and fertilizers mimicking the peak inflation observed in 2022 reveal small yet non-negligible effects on consumer and producer welfare in Central American countries, which however do not match the magnitude of the food security crisis observed in the region. |
| Keywords: | shock; food prices; fertilizers; markets; price volatility; inflation; food security; welfare; Central America |
| Date: | 2024–12–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gsspwp:162957 |
| By: | Centre for Policy Dialogue |
| Abstract: | The economy of Bangladesh faces both domestic and international challenges. The Russia-Ukraine war slowed COVID-19 recovery. The economy faces severe external pressures High commodity prices, supply chain disruptions, and tightening of monetary policy around the world affect the economy. |
| Keywords: | Bangladesh economy, FY2023-24, economic challenges, economic reforms, Russia-Ukraine war, post-COVID recovery |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pdb:report:66 |
| By: | Vadim Ustyuzhanin |
| Abstract: | The present study aimed to improve upon the existing correlational literature on the parenthood penalty in Russia. An instrumental variables approach based on sibling sex composition and multiple births was employed alongside difference-in-differences designs to analyze rich census and longitudinal datasets. To the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first study to provide causal estimates of the effect of fertility decisions on subsequent labor market outcomes for mothers and fathers in contemporary Russia. The study's primary finding is that, in contrast to the approximately 10 percent long-term motherhood penalty observed in developed countries, the causal impact of childbearing on women's employment in Russia is most significant in the first year after birth, reducing employment by around 15 percent. This penalty then rapidly declines to a modest 3 percent once children reach school age. The analysis indicates an absence of a systematic fatherhood penalty in terms of employment, although a modest increase in labor supply is observed. |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2506.11858 |
| By: | Musayir, Arlan (Department for Employment UK); Arabsheibani, Reza (London School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the causal impact of childbirth on women’s likelihood of informal employment in Russia using twenty years of RLMS. We apply an event study framework following Kleven et al. (2019) to quantify child penalties in labour market outcomes and whether women are more likely to find themselves working informally following the birth of their first child. We find that childbirth significantly increases the probability of informal employment for women. The rise in informality is concentrated in only the first year after childbirth. For first-time mothers this transition is largely involuntary. Our findings align with recent evidence on Russia’s relatively integrated but segmented informal labour market (Bargain et al. 2021). |
| Keywords: | informality, female employment, fertility |
| JEL: | J13 J16 J46 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17916 |
| By: | Antonis Ballis |
| Abstract: | Global financial systems are undergoing strategic shifts as geopolitical tensions reshape international trade and payments. The United States (US)-China trade war, sanctions regimes, and rising concerns over the weaponization of financial infrastructures like SWIFT have led countries to seek alternative networks, including China's CIPS and emerging cross-border CBDCs. This letter presents a dynamic theoretical framework where sanction risks, investment choices, and network effects drive payment system migration. Empirical evidence from Russia, Saudi Arabia, India, and Argentina supports the model. Policy implications point toward increasing financial fragmentation, with critical roles for international institutions to mitigate systemic risks. The future of finance may be less global and more regionally fragmented, influenced heavily by political considerations. |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2505.21480 |
| By: | Khakimov, Parviz; Ashurov, Timur; Goibov, Manuchehr; Aliev, Jovidon |
| Abstract: | This study examines the growth and challenges in Tajikistan’s agriculture sector, highlighting its role as a key driver of the country’s development despite significant constraints and challenges, including inputs scarcity and climate change. The agriculture sector has seen an increase in gross outputs and sectoral value added, contributing to domestic needs due to population and income growth. However, Tajikistan still has the lowest agricultural value added per worker in Central Asia and remains a net importer of agrifood products, primarily due to the underdevelopment of the food processing sector. Key growth drivers include sectoral reforms, shifts in land allocation, and government incentives. Despite these efforts, regional disparities in productivity persist, and access to inputs such as fertilizers and mechanization remains limited. The paper emphasizes the need for improved access to finance, agricultural inputs, and extension services to ensure sustainable development and food security. Recommendations include enhancing the capacity of national agricultural research and development institutions, promoting climate-smart agriculture, and improving water and irrigation management. Additionally, the study underscores the importance of developing the livestock sector through improved feeding, breeding, and veterinary services. Overall, a comprehensive approach addressing policy, institutional, economic, and technological gaps is crucial for the sustainable advancement of Tajikistan’s agriculture sector. |
| Keywords: | agriculture; development; policy analysis; reforms; Tajikistan; Asia; Central Asia |
| Date: | 2024–12–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gsspwp:168997 |
| By: | Venkat Ram Reddy Ganuthula; Krishna Kumar Balaraman |
| Abstract: | This article examines the interplay of money, identity, and information as a pivotal triad reshaping electoral politics and legitimacy in modern democracies, with insights from the United States, India, Germany, China, and Russia. Financial resources, through campaign finance and state funds, enable strategies exploiting identity cleavages like race, caste, and nationalism, amplified by digital networks such as social media and targeted messaging. In democracies, this dynamic fosters polarization and erodes trust, while in non democracies, it bolsters regime narratives. Drawing on political economy, social identity theory, and media studies, the study reveals a feedback loop: money shapes identity appeals, information disseminates them, and power consolidates, challenging issue based governance assumptions. Comparative analysis highlights the triad universal yet context specific impact, underscoring the need for reforms to address its effects on democratic theory and practice, as it entrenches elite influence and tribal divisions across diverse political systems. |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2505.09124 |
| By: | Venkat Ram Reddy Ganuthula; Krishna Kumar Balaraman |
| Abstract: | This article examines the complex relationship between money and political legitimacy in democracies (United States, Germany, India) and nondemocracies (China, Russia), using published empirical evidence to explore how financial resources influence governance. In democracies, US campaign finance, German party funding, and Indias electoral bonds amplify elite influence, openly eroding public trust by skewing policy toward wealthy interests. In nondemocracies, Chinas state enterprise patronage and Russias oligarch suppression strengthen legitimacy, yet hide vulnerabilities revealed by anticorruption campaigns and power struggles. The analysis argues that moneys corrosive impact is widespread but varies: democracies face evident legitimacy crises, while nondemocracies conceal underlying fragility. These findings highlight the need for reforms: increased transparency in democracies and wider power bases in nondemocracies, to mitigate moneys distorting effect on political authority. |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2505.09128 |
| By: | Pechtl, Sarah; Mardonova Tolibkhonovna, Mohru; Ergasheva, Tanzila; Lambrecht, Isabel B. |
| Abstract: | Tajikistan faces food insecurity and multiple forms of malnutrition in its population, with women particularly at risk. Social norms related to gender and intrahousehold hierarchy are pervasive and are commonly upheld in household roles. Yet, how gender may impact dietary intake in Tajikistan remains to be studied. Understanding this mechanism is critical to develop adequate strategies for effective, equitable progress in mitigating malnutrition and food insecurity. mixed-methods study was conducted to assess the extent and identify the drivers of gender-based and intrahousehold differences in dietary intake in Khatlon Province, Tajikistan. Predictors of food intake and dietary diversity were statistically assessed using quantitative survey data from 1, 704 individuals collected in winter- and springtime 2023. Qualitative data from 12 focus group discussions, 20 individual interviews, and 22 Photovoice interviews collected in winter- and springtime 2024 was analyzed using reflexive thematic analysis to further ascertain and understand these drivers. We find gender differences in dietary diversity, with women reporting lower dietary diversity than men, even when comparing men and women living in the same household. Among women, there are significant differences in dietary diversity based on their role in the household. Gendered social norms and intrahousehold power relations influence food acquisition, preparation, distribution, and consumption. Men, particularly household heads, and children tend to be prioritized over women in consuming food products that are deemed more nutritious (e.g., meat). Women adapt their food intake to meet the expectations and needs of other household members. This study highlights the importance of considering household dynamics and gender roles when creating programs and policies aiming to equitably address food and nutrition insecurity and malnutrition. The findings suggest that mitigating malnutrition in Tajikistan will necessitate gender equity-focused social behavior change interventions targeting women and men across different generations. |
| Keywords: | food security; malnutrition; gender; diet; intrahousehold relations; dietary diversity; Tajikistan; Central Asia |
| Date: | 2024–11–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:gsspwp:162924 |
| By: | Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés; Bartalucci, Federico; Rau, Genadiy |
| Abstract: | This article provides a comprehensive analysis of the growing regional divide in Kazakhstan, examining the dimensions and implications of spatial inequality in a country that has experienced robust economic growth in recent decades. We employ convergence analysis, a Regional Development Trap Index, and a Regional Competitiveness Index to measure territorial inequalities across Kazakhstan. Our findings reveal that whilst the country has achieved relatively rapid aggregate economic growth, this has been accompanied by a widening territorial divide. Wealth and economic activities are becoming increasingly concentrated in major urban centres such as Almaty and Astana, whilst other regions —particularly those in the south— continue to lag significantly behind. These results highlight an increasingly polarised nation, where certain regions benefit from economic dynamism and Kazakhstan's international integration, whilst others remain trapped in low-growth equilibria. The article concludes by offering targeted policy recommendations aimed at promoting inclusive growth, enhancing regional competitiveness, and reducing spatial disparities throughout Kazakhstan. |
| Keywords: | regional inequalities; Kazakhstan; agglomeration economies; globalisation; convergence; development traps; regional competitiveness; spatial disparities; institutional quality; inclusive growth |
| JEL: | R11 O18 R58 P25 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:128410 |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Uzbekistan has made remarkable progress in its transition to a market-oriented economy. Far-reaching economic reforms have transformed the economy and spurred capital inflows which, combined with buoyant remittances and favorable commodity prices, have driven robust growth. The authorities remain firmly committed to their reform agenda to entrench macro-financial stability, reduce the footprint of the state in the economy, and foster a vibrant private sector. |
| Date: | 2025–06–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2025/143 |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | This inaugural Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) in Uzbekistan took place against the backdrop of a strong and resilient economy undergoing wide-ranging reforms. The main objectives of the authorities’ strategy for developing the banking sector are to significantly increase the role of private banks and improve the operations of the remaining state-owned commercial banks. |
| Date: | 2025–06–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2025/145 |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | 2025 Selected Issues |
| Date: | 2025–06–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2025/144 |
| By: | Costa-Font, Joan; Nicińska, Anna; Rosello-Roig, Melcior |
| Abstract: | Past trauma resulting from personal life shocks, especially during periods of particular volatility such as regime transition (or regime change), can give rise to significant long-lasting effects on people’s health and well-being. We study this question by drawing on longitudinal and retrospective data to examine the effect of past exposure to major individual-level shocks (specifically hunger, persecution, dispossession, and exceptional stress) on current measures of an individual’s health and mental well-being. We examine the effect of the timing of the personal shocks, alongside the additional effect of ‘institutional uncertainty’ resulting from regime change in post-communist European countries. Our findings are as follows. First, we document evidence of the detrimental effects of shocks on a series of relevant health and well-being outcomes. Second, we show evidence of more pronounced detrimental consequences of such personal shocks experienced by individuals living in formerly communist countries (which accrue to about 8% and 10% in the case of persecution and hunger, respectively) than in non-communist countries. The effects are robust and take place in addition to the direct effects of regime change and exposure to personal shocks. |
| Keywords: | later life health; health care system; transition shocks; Soviet communism |
| JEL: | I18 H75 H79 |
| Date: | 2025–07–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:127573 |