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on Confederation of Independent States |
| By: | Lovakov, Andrey (HSE University) |
| Abstract: | The Russia-Ukraine conflict has had a significant impact on international migration patterns, including a significant exodus of Russian-affiliated researchers. This study examines the scale, disciplinary impact, and geographic shifts of this migration wave by analyzing data from the Scopus database. Using changes in the most frequent country of affiliation as a proxy for migration, the results show a substantial decline in the net migration rate of Russian researchers from 2022 to 2024. Russia has been losing about 0.8% of its active researchers annually over this period. This brain drain wave affects almost all research fields. The most affected disciplines include Physics and Astronomy, Computer Science, and Mathematics, while Dentistry and Health Professions experienced comparatively smaller declines. Geographically, traditional academic destinations such as Germany, the United States, and Switzerland have absorbed the majority of emigrating researchers, while non-traditional destinations, such as Armenia, the United Arab Emirates, and Kazakhstan, are also becoming important. However, large academic systems such as China and India have not seen significant increases. The findings underscore that this unprecedented brain drain will have both short- and long-term consequences for Russian academia and global science. |
| Date: | 2025–05–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:k8fbc_v1 |
| By: | Schneider, Jonas; Süß, Juliana |
| Abstract: | According to the US government, the Russian government is developing a programme to arm some of its satellites with nuclear warheads. Should the Kremlin acquire this capability, it could destroy key parts of the civilian satellite infrastructure by detonating a single nuclear weapon in low Earth orbit. Important US military satellites are also located in space. The use of Russian nuclear weapons there could severely weaken the US military and potentially trigger a military escalation on Earth. The deployment of a nuclear warhead in space would constitute a violation of the Outer Space Treaty. The development of this capability appears to align with Russia's strategic approach of undermining the established international order and engaging in high-risk actions to extract concessions from the West, particularly in the context of Ukraine. The Kremlin is also attempting to incorporate the increasingly militarised domain of space into this strategy by using non-nuclear anti-satellite weapons. Europe must be prepared to address this ongoing challenge. |
| Keywords: | Russia, United States, China, satellites, Cosmos 2553, nuclear warheads, low Earth orbit, military escalation, Ukraine, Outer Space Treaty, jamming and spoofing, electromagnetic pulse (EMP) |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:318319 |
| By: | TOKUNAGA, Masahiro |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the development of renewable energy in Russia, with a focus on the concept of ecological modernization as an analytical framework with an aim to see the realities of green transition in the country that seems to have fallen behind other major countries in the dynamics of decarbonization. At the national level, Russia’s green transition is slow and sluggish in terms of the installation of variable renewable energy (VRE) generators, despite the fact that it has a considerable amount of latent renewable sources to contribute to decarbonization. On top of this, it has become more difficult for the country to navigate the decarbonizing world as a result of the unprecedented economic sanctions that have forced Western firms to give up their operations in the field of renewables. The demonstration project on the use of wind energy in Tiksi, a northern town in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), has shown that wind energy production has successfully progressed as part of the Japan–Russia energy cooperation; however, due to the impact of energy and financial sanctions, it seems unlikely to start a new initiative for wind energy development in the republic with abundant wind resources. In the context of ecological modernization theory, the pathway to a decarbonizing society with innovative renewable technologies is now shut down rather than closed for Russia, partly because of malfunction of domestic institutionalization and mainly owing to Western economic sanctions. This is in contrast to China’s experience, wherein ecological modernization has been forced as a national policy in the last two decades. |
| Keywords: | Renewable energy, Russia, Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), economic sanctions, ecological modernization |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:rrcwps:106 |
| By: | Shujaat Farooq (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad); Mohammad Shaaf Najib (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad); Junaid Ahmed (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad); Uzma Zia (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad); Saba Anwar (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad) |
| Abstract: | Executive Summary This report presents a detailed analysis of economic and technological cooperation between the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) member states to improve trade, financial integration, and technology adoption, particularly for electric vehicle technology, across all Member States. China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan formed the SCO in 2001, Pakistan and India joined in 2017; Iran in 2023, and Belarus in 2024. The main goal of the SCO is to help member governments with a range of economic, political, and technological issues. It focuses primarily on security, cooperation, economic development, and cultural transformation. This report presents policy recommendations to drive growth and discusses important areas of economic integration. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pid:rrepot:2025:03 |
| By: | Vorbrugg, Alexander; Volosko, Myroslava; Tetiana, Grabovska; Miroshnyk, Nataliia; Polianska, Kateryna |
| Abstract: | Media play a central role in conveying what happens to land and ecosystems as they suffer war-induced disruptions when physical access is dangerous and restricted. We conducted a discourse analysis of Ukrainian media coverage on the destruction and recovery of landscapes and ecosystems since russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion. We found that, while much war-related academic debate focuses on questions of territory, questions of land are actively debated in Ukrainian media. Land is represented as a symbol of collective suffering and an archive of violence, but also a symbol of regenerative capacity and recovery. Land damage and recovery are related to various economic, environmental, social and health issues with implications for present and future generations. While environmental concerns risk being sidelined in the face of other urgent war-related issues, particularly their long-term implications, are emphasised as important. Beyond covering relatively obvious damages, media articles address underlying and complex issues of environmental degradation and recovery, which seems critical given the land-related challenges in Ukraine today. |
| Date: | 2025–05–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:da3nm_v1 |
| By: | Ulrich, Natalja; Al-Tamimi, Jalal (Newcastle University) |
| Abstract: | Distinct acoustic correlates of palatalization contrast in Russian fricatives are mainly reported for voiceless sibilants using static measures. This study adds to existing research on Russian palatalization by investigating the pairs: [v]-[vj], [z]-[zj], [s]-[sj], [S]-[C], using 18 acoustic correlates quantified dynamically within the frication noise, including spectral, temporal, and amplitude domains. The data consists of 9070 tokens recorded from 59 native Russian speakers (30 females, 29 males), aged 18–30. To detect distinct acoustic characteristics, Random Forests (RFs) were used, and the data was further analyzed by Generalized Additive Mixed-effects Models (GAMMs) to track dynamic changes over time. RFs identified six main discriminative features: dynamic amplitude between low and high frequencies, amplitude in low-frequency ranges, spectral peak and center of gravity, and the number of zero crossings. To track dynamic changes, these measures were subjected to GAMMs. Our results show that palatalization forms a supra-segmental articulatory feature leading to increased air pressure and energy in high frequencies relative to low frequencies, resulting in a more palatal-like realization, with alveolars realized as more back and post-alveolars as more front. Palatalized fricatives in Russian differ from non-palatalized ones, with most changes occurring within the fricative and marginally extending to its edges. |
| Date: | 2025–05–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:et2up_v1 |
| By: | Richard H. Clarida |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the 2021-2022 global inflation surge and the belated but aggressive monetary policy response to it by advanced economy central banks. Drawing on body of recent empirical research, it identifies three primary drivers of the global inflation surge: supply shocks from pandemic disruptions and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, accommodative fiscal and monetary policies that responded to the economic dislocation caused by pandemic, and a demand shift toward goods relative to services, that exacerbated supply chain pressures. Advanced economy central banks were initially slow to react but ultimately raised rates aggressively and succeeded, with help from a reversal of the initial supply shocks which contributed to the initial inflation surge, in returning inflation to “2 point something” were confident enough in the prospects for further disinflation to began cutting interest rates by the summer of 2024. The paper explores benefits and costs of proposals to make forward guidance on the policy rate and the balance sheet more robust and considers the benefits and costs of incorporating scenario analysis into the communication toolkit. |
| JEL: | E31 E4 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33885 |
| By: | Popov, Vladimir |
| Abstract: | There is no shortage of research in China on the collapse of the USSR and Soviet socialism, and on the lessons of this collapse for China. A review article on the achievements of Chinese Sovietology (Zuo Fengrong, 2022) states that experts generally acknowledge Gorbachev's direct responsibility for the collapse of the USSR, but do not attribute it solely to the "betrayal" of a few leaders. Rather they expose the flaws of the Soviet model – inability to stimulate the enthusiasm and creativity of the people, the slowdown in economic growth and the decline in efficiency - factors that make it impossible to believe that the collapse of the Soviet Union was not an accident. "Scholars have shown that it was precisely the CPSU’s loss of popular support that led to the collapse of the Soviet Union", – writes Zuo Fengrong (2022). Against this background, the book under review stands out sharply. Lu Aiguo proves the exact opposite – it was not the Communist Party that lost the support of the people, but the people who lost control over the leadership of the Communist Party and the state. The author's main idea is that the USSR collapsed not because of internal problems, although there were plenty of them, but because of a change in the course initiated by the elite, because of a "wormhole in the heart, " to use a well-known Chinese idiom that roughly corresponds to the Russian "a fish rots from the head." |
| Keywords: | Soviet socialism, collapse of the USSR, lessons for China, economic competition of socialism and capitalism, public opinion and the elite in democracies and autocracies |
| JEL: | H40 I38 O43 O57 P20 P51 P52 Z18 |
| Date: | 2025–05–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:124882 |
| By: | Aydın, Yaşar |
| Abstract: | Turkey is at risk of descending into autocracy. That risk persists even though the resistance put up by the opposition Republican People's Party following the arrest of Mayor of İstanbul Ekrem İmamoğlu has saved the party - at least for now - from being placed under a trustee and the İstanbul Metropolitan Municipality from being subjected to the administration of the state. The complete autocratisation of Turkey can be prevented only if opposition resistance receives broad and consistent support from among the population, economic growth is jeopardised by political instability and the European Union responds in a unified manner. It is in the interest of neither the EU nor Germany for Turkey to become politically and economically destabilised through further autocratisation, as this would impede the country's ability to fulfil its regional responsibilities, which include curbing migration, deterring Russia and stabilising Syria. The EU can exercise a constructive influence over Turkey by offering the prospect of talks on the modernisation of the customs union and the facilitation of visas and by promising it a greater say in the European security architecture - on condition that Ankara respects democratic principles and the rule of law. |
| Keywords: | Ekrem İmamoğlu, Mayor of İstanbul, NATO, EU, autocratisation, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, opposition, curbing migration, deterring Russia, stabilising Syria, rule of law, Republican People's Party (CHP), Peoples' Equality and Democracy Party (DEM), Turkish Industry and Business Association (TÜSçIAD), Justice and Development Party (AKP) |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:318314 |
| By: | Dower, Paul Castañeda; Gehlbach, Scott; Kofanov, Dmitrii; Nafziger, Steven; Novikov, Vladimir |
| Abstract: | Local violence often accompanies momentous political change, as feelings of political threat intersect with preexisting prejudices to endanger groups popularly associated with reform. We examine the relationship between such violence and settlement characteristics in the context of the 1905 Russian Revolution, which triggered numerous anti-Jewish pogroms. Counter to an extensive literature that emphasizes the contribution to conflict of ethno-religious polarization, we show that the sharp increase in pogroms after October 1905, when publication of the October Manifesto and accompanying anti-Semitic propaganda increased feelings of political threat among many non-Jews, was smaller in settlements with relatively large Jewish populations. We demonstrate that this empirical pattern can be rationalized with an elaborated version of the Esteban-Ray (2008) model of diversity and conflict when, as with the October Manifesto, political reform systematically alters the distribution of benefits across groups. |
| Date: | 2025–05–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:eakus_v1 |
| By: | Vikesh Amin (Central Michigan University); Jere R. Behrman (University of Pennsylvania); Jason M. Fletcher (University of Wisconsin-Madison, IZA, and NBER); Carlos A. Flores (California Polytechnic State University); Alfonso Flores-Lagunes (W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, IZA, and GLO); Iliana Kohler (University of Pennsylvania); Hans-Peter Kohler (University of Pennsylvania); Shana D. Stites (University of Pennsylvania) |
| Abstract: | Higher schooling attainment is associated with better cognitive function at older ages, but it remains unclear whether the relationship is causal. We estimate causal effects of schooling on performances on the Consortium to Establish a Registry for Alzheimer’s Disease (CERAD) word-recall (memory) test at older ages in China, Ghana, India, Mexico, Russia, and South Africa. We used harmonized data (n=30, 896) on older adults (=50 years) from the World Health Organization Study on Global Ageing and Adult Health. We applied an established nonparametric partialidentification approach that bounds causal effects of increasing schooling attainment at different parts of the schooling distributions under relatively weak assumptions. We find that an additional year of schooling, moving from none into primary school, increased word-recall scores by between 0.01–0.13 standard deviations (SDs) in China, 0.01–0.06SDs in Ghana, 0.02–0.09SDs in India, 0.02–0.12SDs in Mexico, and 0–0.07SDs in South Africa. No results were obtained for Russia at this margin due to the low proportion of older adults with primary schooling or lower. At higher parts of the schooling distributions (e.g., high-school or university completion) the bounds cannot statistically reject null effects. Our results indicate that increasing schooling from never attended to primary had long-lasting effects on memory decades later in life for older adults in five diverse low-and-middle-income countries. |
| Keywords: | schooling, cognitive function, CERAD, LMICs, nonparametric identification |
| JEL: | C14 I15 I25 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upj:weupjo:25-418 |
| By: | Phoebe Koundouri; Fivos Papadimitriou; Georgios Feretzakis; Theodoros Daglis; Vera Alexandropoulou |
| Abstract: | This work examines AI policies and AI legislation following a mixed research method that entails qualitative and quantitative analyses of national and international AI policy official documents, in combination with scientometric analyses of the scientific production. As concerns the former, this research covers countries from all continents (Australia, Canada, China, India, Israel, Japan, Norway, Russia, South Africa, UK, USA) and the EU. As for the latter, the scientometric research was carried out at a global scale. According to the results, the countries do not share the same academic interest in this important matter, neither their formal AI policy documents cover the same AI-related issues with the same emphasis. This analysis leads to the identification of gaps and common elements among national policies (i.e. emphasis on risks, safety) that are of interest to researchers, policymakers, governments, institutions and stakeholders. While there are significant differences among priorities towards AI, among the key findings of this research are the following: a) the most important words in the AI policy documents that have been examined are "risks", "safety" and "ethics"; b) the emerging major issue of Artificial General Intelligence is not addressed in anyone of the official AI documents of the countries previously mentioned; c) there are significant differences in the geographical distributions of both the scientific production and the policy-making processes, with a handful of countries leading the way in both AI law and AGI. Yet, it is encouraging that the growth in the scientific literature about AI legislation grows faster than that related to AGI and so there is hope that countries and international institutions will be able to cope with the rise of AGI in terms of policy-making and legislation. |
| Keywords: | AI law, AI policy-making, National AI policies, AGI, Content analysis, Scientometric analysis |
| Date: | 2025–05–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aue:wpaper:2535 |
| By: | Grafström, Jonas (The Ratio Institute) |
| Abstract: | This report investigates the rationale, implementation challenges, and evolving global context of vertical industrial policy, with a particular focus on Sweden. Against the backdrop of recent global crises—including the 2008 financial crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, and geopolitical disruptions following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine—the analysis explores how governments have re-evaluated the role of state intervention to bolster economic resilience and strategic autonomy. The report distinguishes between horizontal and vertical approaches, where vertical policy targets specific sectors or technologies considered critical for national development, such as green technology, semiconductors, and renewable energy. Drawing on economic theory and empirical evidence, the report outlines the key justifications for vertical industrial policy, including market failures, coordination problems, and the under-provision of public goods. It also addresses the limitations and risks associated with such policies, including information asymmetries, rent-seeking, and political capture. A central contribution is a decision-making framework designed to help policymakers assess when vertical industrial intervention may be justified and how it can be designed to minimize inefficiencies and unintended consequences. While the report takes a cautiously critical stance toward vertical industrial policy, it acknowledges its potential when implemented with clear objectives, regular evaluations, and institutional safeguards. The analysis highlights the need for a balanced and flexible approach, especially in the context of green transitions and geopolitical fragmentation. |
| Keywords: | Industrial policy; vertical policy; market failure; public goods; state intervention; strategic autonomy; coordination failure; green transition; subsidies; economic resilience |
| JEL: | F13 H25 L52 O25 Q48 |
| Date: | 2025–06–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ratioi:0384 |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | The Kyrgyz Republic has shown remarkable resilience amid heightened global uncertainty. Inflation has declined to mid-single digits, but underlying demand pressures require continued vigilance. Favorable debt dynamics have created fiscal space to invest in infrastructure, energy, and human capital. Looking ahead, growth is expected to moderate and converge to its potential of around 5¼ percent over the medium term as re-export trade normalizes. However, the outlook remains highly dependent on geopolitical developments. Priorities going forward include rebuilding policy buffers and advancing structural reforms to strengthen resilience and support sustained and inclusive growth. |
| Date: | 2025–06–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2025/118 |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | 2025 Selected Issues |
| Date: | 2025–06–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2025/119 |