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on Confederation of Independent States |
| By: | Poppens, Jack |
| Abstract: | This study examines the evolving circumstances of Ukrainian nationals residing in Germany, contrasting the periods before and after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The research uses a mixed-methods and narrative interview approach to analyze demographic shifts, integration challenges, and policy responses affecting this population. Findings indicate that integration into German society has been difficult compared to Ukrainians who may have arrived before the Russian invasion. Challenges persist in language acquisition, employment, educational opportunities, and access to social programs. The study underscores the importance of targeted policy measures to facilitate the integration of Ukrainian refugees in Germany and highlights the need for ongoing support to address their unique circumstances. |
| Date: | 2025–05–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:ga8bv_v1 |
| By: | Simola, Heli |
| Abstract: | This note discusses recent developments in economic relations between Russia and China. China has become an essential economic partner for Russia since the invasion of Ukraine. Cut off from most Western economies, Russia today is heavily dependent on trade with China and actively pursues greater cooperation with China. Yet new Chinese investment in Russia remains scarce. Indeed, foreign investment flows into Russia overall have collapsed and trends in Chinese investment are hardly better. |
| Keywords: | Russia, China, trade, investment |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bofitb:318191 |
| By: | Funke, Michael; Wende, Adrian |
| Abstract: | Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the US, EU, and likeminded countries swiftly imposed an expanded set of primary and secondary export restrictions on Russia. This paper assesses the effectiveness of those measures and their ongoing refinement and modification over time using a calibrated three-country dynamic general equilibrium trade model with heterogeneous firm productivities. The modeling set-up comprises a rich specification of export ban loopholes and workarounds, as well as subsequent countermeasures such as re-exports, ghost trade, and secondary extraterritorial export bans. The numerical model evaluations and the numerous policy counterfactuals highlight the challenges of export ban evasion and offer insights for effective export ban designs in the future. We show that targeted secondary extraterritorial export bans have proven an impactful policy tool in diminishing Russia's imports of critical technologies. |
| Keywords: | Russia, export bans, sanctions evasion, quantitative trade model |
| JEL: | F12 F13 F51 H56 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bofitp:318192 |
| By: | Schwarzbauer, Wolfgang |
| Abstract: | Seit dem Beginn des russischen Angriffskriegs im Februar 2022 hat sich die ukrainische Wirtschaftsleistung stark verringert. Gemäß Schätzungen internationaler Organisationen belief sich das ukrainische BIP Ende 2024 auf real rund 77 Prozent des Vorkriegsniveaus. Hinzu kommen massive Zerstörungen der Infrastruktur, von Produktionsanlagen, Wohnbauten und vielem mehr. Gemäß viertem Ukraine Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA4) vom Februar 2025 beläuft sich der aktuelle Wiederaufbaubedarf in der Ukraine auf rund 524 Mrd. Dollar, wobei die Bewertung der Schäden auch mit einer verbesserten Wiederherstellung der zerstörten Anlagen und Infrastruktur einhergeht (Building Back Better-Prinzip). Vor dem Hintergrund der großen Zerstörung in der Ukraine, der internationalen Bemühungen, den Aufbau des Landes nach Beendigung der Kriegshandlungen zu organisieren, sowie der räumlichen Nähe zu Österreich stellt sich die Frage, inwiefern und in welchen Bereichen Österreich und seine Unternehmen aktiv zum Wiederaufbau der Ukraine beitragen können und wie diese Anstrengungen am besten koordiniert werden könnten. Ziel dieser Policy Note ist es, einerseits einen Überblick des Wiederaufbaubedarfs zu geben, diesen den österreichischen Stärkefeldern gegenüberzustellen und abzuleiten, wo für österreichische Unternehmen zentrale Hebeln bestehen, den Wiederaufbau erfolgreich zu begleiten. Mittel- bis langfristig ergeben sich zusätzliche Chancen und Risiken, die gesondert dargestellt werden. Der letzte Abschnitt beschäftigt sich schließlich mit Maßnahmen, wie Österreichs Unternehmen im Wiederaufbau und danach begleitet und unterstützt werden können, um ihr volles Potenzial zu entfalten. (...) |
| Keywords: | Arbeitsmarkt, Außenwirtschaft, Europa, International, Projektberichte, Wettbewerbsfähigkeit |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ecoapn:319065 |
| By: | Wang, Lijun; Karavias, Yiannis; Banerjee, Anindya |
| Abstract: | Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine shook the world’s security architecture and ultimately led to Finland and Sweden officially joining NATO in 2023 and 2024 respectively. A key question which arises then, is what determines NATO membership? Is there an open door policy or are accession decisions based on geopolitics? This paper develops a predictive model assessing the probability of joining NATO for several European countries. The model is based on logis- tic regression and shows that the most important determinants of NATO membership are past geopolitics such as EU and USSR memberships. Less important factors include the strength of economy, political stability and geography. Using a sample from 1979 to 2020, the model predicts that Sweden and Finland were highly likely to join NATO, while the probability of Ukraine’s accession is low. |
| Keywords: | NATO, geopolitics, militaryspending, economicgrowth, paneldata, logistic regression. |
| JEL: | C23 C24 H56 |
| Date: | 2025–05–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:124752 |
| By: | Муратов Султан // Muratov Sultan (National Bank of Kazakhstan); Ыбраев Жандос // Ybrayev Zhandos (National Bank of Kazakhstan); Утарбаев Аскар // Utarbayev Askar (National Bank of Kazakhstan); Қабдолхайров Қайырбек // Kabdolkhairov Kaiyrbek |
| Abstract: | В данном исследовании производится оценка эффективности программы досрочного изъятия части пенсионных накоплений, введенной государством Казахстана в качестве меры поддержки в период пандемии Covid-19. Большинство изъятий было использовано Казахстанскими домохозяйствами на улучшение жилищных условий, в особенности, на приобретение жилой недвижимости. Используя государственную базу данных по транзакциям на рынке недвижимости, мы совмещаем как количественные, так и качественные признаки жилых помещений. Мы применяем метод регрессии разрыва во времени для эмпирической оценки эффективности данной меры государственной поддержки. Наши результаты указывают на то, что программа пенсионных изъятий спровоцировала рост цен в среднем на 9-14% по Казахстану. Данный эффект варьируется в зависимости от обследуемого региона. Выводы нашего исследования могут быть использованы в дальнейшем для принятия более сбалансированных мер государственной поддержки на рынке жилой недвижимости. // In this paper we investigate the effectiveness of pension withdrawal policy implemented by the government of Kazakhstan in response to Covid-19 pandemic. This policy change was primarily utilized by Kazakhstani households to improve living conditions. We use administrative transaction-level data of real estate market to track both quantitative and qualitative characteristics of housing units. We use regression discontinuity in time design (RDiT) to empirically assess the efficacy of government intervention. Our preliminary results show that the government intervention increased housing prices by about 9-14% on average across Kazakhstan. The policy effect seems to have varied depending on the region under study. These findings provide additional insights for policymakers to further draft well-balanced housing policy. |
| Keywords: | пенсионная система, досрочные изъятия, рынок недвижимости, рост цен на жилье, метод регрессии разрыва, Казахстан, pension system, early withdrawals, real estate market, housing price growth, regression discontinuity design, Kazakhstan |
| JEL: | H24 H55 R38 R50 O53 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aob:wpaper:65 |
| By: | Pal, Hemendra |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the impact of the Russia- Ukraine conflict on Brent Crude commodity pricing using World Bank time series data. The conflict’s influence on global oil and gas markets, characterized by intricate supply and demand dynamics, is analyzed through advanced time series techniques and machine learning modeling. Univariate models such as Autocorrelation Function (ACF) and Partial Autocorrelation Function (PACF) are employed to discern temporal patterns in Brent Crude prices. Additionally, Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) and Exponential Smoothing State Space (ETS) models are utilized to capture complex seasonality and trends in the data. Moving beyond traditional methods, multivariate models are leveraged to comprehensively grasp the multifaceted impact of the conflict. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Factor Analysis are applied to uncover latent variables influencing Brent Crude pricing in the context of global trade disruptions, inflation, and diplomatic negotiations. These extracted components are then integrated with ensemble machine learning algorithms, including Random Forest, Extra Tree Classifier, Gradient Boosting, K-Nearest Neighbors, and Decision Trees. The fusion of multivariate time series analysis and machine learning empowers a holistic understanding of the conflict’s intricate repercussions on commodity prices. The analysis reveals that not only direct factors related to geopolitical tensions but also indirect economic data are crucial in determining Brent Crude prices. Factors such as declining industrial demand for precious metals like silver, disruptions in vehicle production due to supply chain breakdowns, reduced demand for automotive auto-catalysts, weak copper demand from China, and unexpected changes in steel consumption have contributed to the observed fluctuations in Brent Crude prices. Through a comprehensive exploration of time series data and advanced machine learning modeling, this research contributes to a a clearer understanding of the complex connections between the crisis in Russia and Ukraine and the price of commodities globally. The findings offer valuable insights for policy-makers, industry stakeholders, and investors seeking to navigate the complex landscape of commodity markets during periods of geopolitical instability. |
| Keywords: | Brent Crude Prices, Univariate Models, Multivariate Models, Ensemble Machine Learning, PCA, SARIMA, ETS |
| JEL: | C15 C32 C38 C45 C51 C53 C55 O57 |
| Date: | 2023–08–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:124770 |
| By: | Park, Byungyul (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade) |
| Abstract: | Escalating tensions between the United States and China and the prolonged conflict between Russia and Ukraine in Eastern Europe have pushed supply chain stability to the top of the agenda for South Korean automakers. In August 2022, during the administration of former US President Joe Biden, the US Congress passed two landmark pieces of legislation: the CHIPS and Science Act and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). These laws were designed to contain China’s expanding influence by reorganizing critical supply chains in semiconductors, batteries, and electric vehicles (EVs) around the US. The IRA offers consumers large federal tax credits on purchases of EVs, but only for vehicles assembled in North America. Moreover, it excludes batteries, parts, and materials produced in so-called “foreign entities of concern, ” principally China, from eligibility for subsidies. This has necessitated a significant realignment of the EV and auto parts supply chains. After the IRA became law, many cars made by automakers instantly became ineligible for subsidies, squeezing Korean EVs’ share of the American market. To mitigate this, Hyundai Motor expedited the construction of its EV plant in the US to ensure that its EVs would qualify for tax benefits. China responded to US sanctions with export controls on key materials critical in the automotive industry. In August 2023, it restricted the export of gallium and germanium, which are important materials used in the manufacture of semiconductors, and in October 2023, Beijing extended these restrictions to include graphite, a core component of lithium-ion batteries. These retaliatory measures have had both direct and indirect consequences on Korea’s automotive supply chains. As the geopolitical rivalry between the US and China heats up, the supply chains around these two superpowers are likely to ossify into two distinct blocs. This exposes Korean automakers to significant risk, given their dependence on China for auto parts and reliance on the US as a destination market for their exports. In this paper, we propose a diversification strategy for Korean automakers that leverages the country’s strong relationship with India in the automotive sector. We argue that such a strategy is required to safeguard the country’s automotive industry, a key strategic sector. |
| Keywords: | supply chains; batteries; electric vehicles; EVs; subsidies; battery industry; manufacturing; China; automotive industry; Hyundai; Kia; South Korea; Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade; KIET |
| JEL: | L62 |
| Date: | 2025–04–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kieter:2025_009 |
| By: | Brozus, Lars; Heiduk, Felix; Voelsen, Daniel |
| Abstract: | Die Bedeutung verlässlicher Partnerschaften hat im Lichte internationaler Entwicklungen in der letzten Dekade massiv zugenommen. Das veanschaulichen die "Krise des Multilateralismus", Russlands Angriffskrieg gegen die Ukraine und der politische Wandel in den USA wie auch in der EU. Deutschland ist als international überdurchschnittlich exponierter Staat auf verlässliche Partnerschaften angewiesen. Daher ist es umso wichtiger, Klarheit darüber zu finden, was die Verlässlichkeit eines Partners ausmacht. Politisch allerdings dominiert ein wenig differenziertes Verständnis von Verlässlichkeit, das historische Pfadabhängigkeiten überbewertet. Warnzeichen, die darauf hindeuten, dass ein Partner unzuverlässig zu werden droht, können so leicht übersehen werden. Diese Studie präsentiert eine Heuristik, die sowohl das Verhalten eines (potenziellen) Partners in verschiedenen Kontexten in den Blick nimmt als auch relevante Akteurs- und Strukturmerkmale erschließt. Mithilfe dieser Heuristik kann die Verlässlichkeit neuer Partner ebenso beurteilt werden wie etablierte Partnerschaften. Umgekehrt kann man aus der Heuristik ableiten, was Deutschland tun sollte, um als verlässlicher Partner wahrgenommen zu werden. Zu empfehlen ist eine strategisch ausgerichtete "Partnerschaftspolitik" sowie ein relationales Verständnis von Partnerschaft: Die deutsche Politik muss sich offen damit auseinandersetzen, welche Rolle sie spielen und welchen Beitrag sie zur Verlässlichkeit einer bilateralen Partnerschaft leisten kann und will. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpstu:319060 |
| By: | International Food Policy Research Institute |
| Abstract: | IFPRI’s 2023 Annual Report offers highlights from our research around the world and of our analysis and communications on addressing global challenges that contribute to hunger and malnutrition. In 2023, IFPRI continued the critical work on crisis and resilience-building that began with the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine war, and rising food prices. Our research also continued to inform policymakers and stakeholders on climate resilience and sustainability, healthy diets and nutrition, inclusive and efficient food systems, institutions and governance, and rural transformation, all with attention to gender and the world’s most vulnerable people, with the goals of reducing poverty and ending hunger and malnutrition. |
| Keywords: | resilience; nutrition; food systems; climate change |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:annrep:141827 |
| By: | Yandiev Magomet (Department of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University) |
| Abstract: | The article is devoted to the explanation of the reason of the post-IPO stock undervaluation phenomenon, which is quite widespread in the markets. The author shows that the first day of trading fundamentally differs from other trading days by a very large, uncharacteristic for other days volume of deals, the absolute majority of which are speculative. As a result, the real reason for the phenomenon of undervaluation is not information asymmetry, underwriter’s reputation, taxation, etc., but the profit: speculative investors expect to get the maximum income from speculating on shares whose quotations have not yet settled in the market after the IPO. |
| Keywords: | IPO, underpricing, Russia |
| JEL: | G11 G12 G23 G32 G41 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upa:wpaper:0069 |
| By: | Heng-fu Zou |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a dynamic game-theoretic framework to model global arms races in a multipolar world using mean field game (MFG) theory. We analyze the strategic behavior of a continuum of minor countries influenced by the military decisions of three major powers—the United States, China, and Russia — who engage in a finite-player differential game. Each country chooses its military expenditure over time to minimize a cost function that reflects internal costs and strategic positioning relative to others. We derive both general nonlinear and linear-quadratic-Gaussian (LQG) formulations, solve the coupled HJB–FPK systems, and simulate both time-dependent and stationary equilibria. Our results show how strategic interdependence, peer pressure, and deterrence incentives drive excessive militarization in decentralized equilibrium. We compare decentralized and centralized outcomes and analyze policy interventions such as caps and taxes. The framework offers a rigorous foundation for understanding military competition and evaluating arms control policies under uncertainty. |
| Keywords: | Mean Field Games, Arms Race, Strategic Competition, Militarization, Linear-Quadratic-Gaussian Control, Decentralized Equilibrium |
| Date: | 2025–05–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cuf:wpaper:756 |
| By: | Heng-fu Zou |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a dynamic mean field game model of global arms races and capital accumulation among heterogeneous nations. Each country allocates its output among consumption, capital investment, and military spending, optimizing against an evolving global militarization level. Strategic interdependence is modeled through forward–backward stochastic differential equations, combining individual HJB equations, Population-level Fokker–Planck dynamics, and a mean field consistency condition. Closed-form solutions are derived under a linear–quadratic benchmark, and steady-state distributions are simulated for major powers including the U.S., China, Russia, and the EU. Results reveal how cross-country differences in productivity, military efficiency, and volatility lead to divergent long-run equilibria and global militarization traps. The model captures strategic path dependence and hysteresis, showing how shocks or preemptive arming can entrench high-arms outcomes. Policy implications include the importance of disarmament mechanisms, transparency, and coordinated institutions to escape inefficient militarized equilibria. The framework offers a robust tool for analyzing geopolitical dynamics under uncertainty. |
| Keywords: | arms race, capital accumulation, mean field games, global militarization, Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equation, Fokker–Planck equation, strategic interdependence, geopolitical equilibrium |
| Date: | 2025–05–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cuf:wpaper:755 |
| By: | Egamberdiev, Bekhzod; Zakirov, Bekzod; Useinov, Akhtem |
| Abstract: | Since the 1990s and 2000s, Uzbekistan has made considerable progress in improving food security through prioritizing self-sufficiency, crop diversification, and, recently, administrative reforms in the agriculture sector to strengthen this strategic sector of the country. However, growing climate risks, rising food prices, and regional supply disruptions continue to expose the country’s food system to new vulnerabilities. This report emphasizes the importance of both household and food system resilience in ensuring sustainable food security, focusing on balanced nutrition and affordable food, and provides practical policy directions and recommendations. 1. Food availability is strong, but access and affordability remain at risk. Although undernourishment levels are low, many households struggle to afford diverse and nutritious diets. Limited access to healthy food options is the case for rural families and poor urban households, even though many rural families have access to small-scale agriculture. Economic shocks and price fluctuations pose ongoing threats to household food access. 2. Resilience is key to protecting food security during crises. Households with better infrastructure, adaptive capacity, diverse income sources, and strong community networks are more likely to maintain diverse food access during droughts, price shocks, or supply disruptions. Resilience reduces the need for harmful coping strategies and supports recovery. Household resilience also ensures that sufficient and nutritious food is available to maintain food system resilience in the long term. 3. Policies should focus on building resilience across multiple areas. Priority actions include investing in rural infrastructure, promoting climate-smart agriculture, expanding social protection systems, and tailoring support to different livelihoods, such as farmers and vulnerable groups. 4. Stronger government and international collaboration are essential. The Government of Uzbekistan could embed resilience into its national food and climate strategies. International partners can support this by aligning funding, improving data systems, promoting innovation, and scaling up inclusive, community-based solutions. |
| Keywords: | Food security, Resilience, Agriculture, Food production |
| JEL: | Q18 D13 Q12 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esrepo:318075 |