nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2025–05–26
nineteen papers chosen by
Alexander Harin


  1. Can Conflict Break Bonds within Society? Exploring the Impact of the Ongoing War on Social Trust in Ukraine By Tamilina, Larysa
  2. A short drop or a sudden stop? Sanctions, trade shocks, and firms' adjustment margins By Nicolas Gavoille
  3. Geopolitical surprises and macroeconomic shocks: A tale of two events By Anttonen, Jetro; Lehmus, Markku
  4. What do simple short-term models say about the latest economic trends in Russia? By Simola, Heli
  5. The Russian leasing market under sanctions By Merekina Elena; Korshikov Alexander
  6. Russische Atomwaffen im Weltraum? Mögliche Zerstörung im All, Eskalation auf der Erde und Rüstungskontrollschäden By Schneider, Jonas; Süß, Juliana
  7. Wage Profiles in STEM and Non-STEM Careers By Alexeev, Michael; Chernina, Yevgenia; Gimpelson, Vladimir; Zinchenko, Darya
  8. The impact of railway construction on the industrialization of the Russian Empire By Churakov Dmitry
  9. Prioritize to Decarbonize: Thermal Retrofits, Carbon Prices, and Energy Inequality By Sophie M. Behr; Merve Kucuk; Maximilian Longmuir; Karsten Neuhoff
  10. Strengthening Europe's capacity to act in foreign and security policy: Securitisation cannot solve the EU's decision-making trap By Becker, Max; Bendiek, Annegret; Kempin, Ronja
  11. Arbeitsmarkt im Wandel: Deutschland muss die Transformation annehmen, um seine Produktivität und Wettbewerbsfähigkeit zu stärken By Fitzenberger, Bernd; Kagerl, Christian
  12. Practices of law enforcement and punishment in early modern Russia: A look of the law and economics By Kalyagin Grigory
  13. Monetary Shocks and Inflation: Global Evidence from Trilemma-Based Identification By Cameron Haas; Mateo Hoyos; Emiliano Libman; Guilherme K. Martins; Arslan Razmi
  14. An unusually great number of stock exchange transactions on the first trading day following an IPO/SPO By Yandiev Magomet
  15. The Impact of the Russian Sanctions on the Turkish Tourism Sector: Firm-level Evidence By Canan Yüksel Yücel; Erol Taymaz
  16. Structural changes and drivers of agrifood system growth in Tajikistan By Khakimov, Parviz; Diao, Xinshen; Goibov, Manuchehr; Ashurov, Timur
  17. Assessing agrifood system growth outcomes in Tajikistan By Khakimov, Parviz; Diao, Xinshen; Goibov, Manuchehr; Ashurov, Timur
  18. Tajikistan’s agrifood system structure By Khakimov, Parviz; Diao, Xinshen; Goibov, Manuchehr; Ashurov, Timur
  19. Die Türkei auf dem Weg zur Autokratie: Wirtschaftliche Folgen und Handlungsmöglichkeiten der EU und Deutschlands By Aydın, Yaşar

  1. By: Tamilina, Larysa
    Abstract: This study examines the effects of the ongoing war on social trust within Ukrainian society. The key finding suggests that the conflict contributes to a decline in trust, primarily due to its various adverse impacts on individuals. Additionally, the war appears to undermine contextual resources essential for trust-building, thereby indirectly contributing to the erosion of social trust.
    Keywords: Social trust, War, Conflict, SEM, Ukraine.
    JEL: P0 Z10
    Date: 2025–04–15
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:124499
  2. By: Nicolas Gavoille (Latvijas Banka)
    Abstract: This paper examines firm-level responses to the large trade shock induced by the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine and the ensuing European Union sanctions. Using detailed administrative data from Latvia - a small, open economy with strong pre-war trade ties with Russia - I document the heterogeneous effects of the shock across firms with varying degrees of exposure. Employing a machine learning-based approach to determine a set of impacted firms and a difference-in-differences local projection method, the analysis shows that firms with lower initial exposure to Russia are the most likely to sever trade ties. Only a small set of firms, the most exposed to Russian trade, suffered significant losses in turnover, employment, and profitability, despite some trade reorientation towards CIS countries. Mere exposure to Russia emerges as the primary determinant of these patterns, whereas sanctions targeting specific goods do not play a direct role. These findings contribute to the broader literature on economic sanctions and trade policy by providing micro-level evidence on the adjustment mechanisms of European firms in response to geopolitical disruptions.
    Keywords: Sanctions, Trade shock, Firm behavior, Adjustment margins
    JEL: F14 F16 F61
    Date: 2025–05–14
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ltv:wpaper:202503
  3. By: Anttonen, Jetro; Lehmus, Markku
    Abstract: We investigate the macroeconomic effects of two recent major geopolitical events on the euro area economy, namely, the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. To take into account the heterogeneity of geopolitical events, we do not seek to identify a homogeneous geopolitical shock on which to base our causal inference, but construct event-specific combinations of jointly identified macroeconomic shocks instead. To this end, we employ a non-Gaussian structural vector autoregressive model that is statistically identified but also makes use of zero- and sign restrictions and illustrate how different sources of identifying information complement each other. Our results show that adverse geopolitical events may have either inflationary or deflationary effects on indirectly affected economies and that context dependence is required from the monetary authorities when assessing the importance of geopolitical shocks to achieving their price stability objectives.
    Keywords: structural vector autoregression, statistical identification, monetary policy, inflation, geopolitics
    JEL: C32 C54 F51
    Date: 2025
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bofrdp:317790
  4. By: Simola, Heli
    Abstract: We consider the applicability of simple statistical models to Russia's short-term economic trends in a wartime context. We develop several composite indicators combining economic variables to predict Russian GDP trends both before and after the invasion if Ukraine in 2022. In addition, our SVAR model estimations highlight the exceptionality of wartime. Russia's actual GDP performance in 2022 is considerably weaker than predicted by our model. The situation then reverses in 2023 and particularly at end-2024 the GDP outperforms model predictions.
    Keywords: Russian economy, statistics, principal component analysis, SVAR
    Date: 2025
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bofitb:317789
  5. By: Merekina Elena (Department of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University); Korshikov Alexander (Department of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University)
    Abstract: The use of such a method of financing as leasing is relevant for all types and sizes of business, the leasing market shows the general economic situation in the country, being the border between the real and financial sectors of the economy. Significant state participation in the leasing market. The purpose of the article is to develop a methodology for forecasting the volume of the leasing market in modern Russia through the indicator of net investments in leasing, based on macroeconomic indicators.. The article uses the work of Russian researchers of the leasing market over the past 5 years, regulatory acts, statistical data of Rosstat, the Bank of Russia and the Agency Expert RA for 2014-2023. Thanks to the first identified main factors affecting the volume of net investments in leasing, and the forecast of market development for 2024, it is possible to make appropriate decisions at the level of top management of the leasing company on tactical and strategic plans for its development. The result of the study is confirmation of the direct relationship between the general economic situation in the country and the volume of the leasing market, as well as the presentation of recommendations for adapting the leasing business to future changes in the economy.
    Keywords: leasing market, volume of leasing market, net leasing investments, sanctions
    JEL: G21 G23
    Date: 2024–05
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upa:wpaper:0070
  6. By: Schneider, Jonas; Süß, Juliana
    Abstract: Nach Einschätzung der US-Regierung arbeitet Russland daran, einzelne seiner Satelliten mit einem nuklearen Sprengkopf zu bewaffnen. Erlangte der Kreml diese Fähigkeit, könnte er durch die Zündung einer einzigen solchen Kernwaffe im erdnahen Orbit zentrale Teile der zivilen Satelliteninfrastruktur zerstören. Weil sich im Weltraum zudem wichtige Militärsatelliten der USA befinden, könnte ein Einsatz russischer Atomwaffen im All das US-Militär empfindlich schwächen - und aufgrund dieses Potentials eine militärische Eskalation auf der Erde auslösen. Bereits die Stationierung eines Atomsprengkopfs im All würde den internationalen Weltraumvertrag verletzen. Diese Fähigkeit zu erarbeiten passt in die russische Strategie, durch die Beschädigung der internationalen Ordnung sowie drastisches und riskantes Verhalten westliche Zugeständnisse zu erreichen, vor allem beim Thema Ukraine. Auch mit nichtnuklearen Antisatellitenwaffen versucht der Kreml, den zunehmend militarisierten Weltraum in dieses Vorgehen einzubinden. Gegen diese dauerhaft bestehende Herausforderung sollte sich Europa wappnen.
    Keywords: Russland, Atomwaffen, Weltraum, Antisatellitenwaffen, Kosmos 2553, Low Earth Orbit, LEO, Medium Earth Orbit, MEO, Geostationary Earth Orbit, GEO, Outer Space Treaty, Partial Test Ban Treaty
    Date: 2025
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpakt:316693
  7. By: Alexeev, Michael (Indiana University); Chernina, Yevgenia (New Uzbekistan University); Gimpelson, Vladimir (University of Wisconsin-Madison); Zinchenko, Darya (Higher School of Economics (HSE))
    Abstract: We compare wage profiles for STEM-educated and non-STEM-educated individuals over their lifetimes. Using repeated cross-sectional data from Russia, we examine how the dynamics of these types of human capital are affected by technological developments, applying the Age-Period-Cohort decomposition to workers’ life cycle wage growth. Additionally, we account for heterogeneity in the impact of institutional quality on lifetime wage profiles. We show that STEM education is associated with flatter wage-experience profiles than non-STEM education, with the most pronounced differences observed among females. The cohort effect, apparently specific to the former Soviet-type economies, reveals itself in devaluing some types of older education, putting non-STEM cohorts educated during the Soviet period at a disadvantage relative to those with STEM education. Importantly, in the Russian case, the age/experience effects act in the direction opposite to the cohort effects, rendering the cross-sectional analysis somewhat misleading. Finally, wage-experience profiles for males with non-STEM education are steeper in regions with weak institutions than in regions with stronger institutions.
    Keywords: age-period-cohort decomposition, life-cycle wage growth, wage, human capital, STEM, Russia
    JEL: E24 J24 J31 O33 O43
    Date: 2025–05
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17875
  8. By: Churakov Dmitry (Department of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University)
    Abstract: I have carried out a quantitative analysis of the influence of the development of the railway infrastructure in the Russian Empire on its industrial development. This topic is practically not worked out in the modern economic literature, despite the existence of the necessary tools and works devoted to this process in other countries... The results I have obtained do not support the hypothesis that the proximity to the railways had a positive effect on the population growth of the counties of the European part of the Russian Empire, on their urbanization and on industrial development, which I understand as the use of new engines by firms in production. Such conclusions are consistent with the Vogelian view that railways were not such an important driver of economic growth in the 19th century.
    Keywords: railways, urbanization, industry, economy of the Russian Empire
    JEL: N73 O14 O18
    Date: 2024–04
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upa:wpaper:0071
  9. By: Sophie M. Behr; Merve Kucuk; Maximilian Longmuir; Karsten Neuhoff
    Abstract: The energy crisis following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine exposed the heightened vulnerability of low-income households to rising heating costs, particularly those in energy inefficient buildings. Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP), this study examines the distributional impact of heating costs across income deciles and evaluates the effectiveness of policy interventions. We find that low-income tenants are the most vulnerable segment of the population, with elevated risks of energy poverty. While carbon pricing with landlordtenant cost splitting shields low-income households from carbon costs, it fails to offset overall energy price increases. In contrast, a "Worst-First" retrofit strategy, prioritizing upgrades in the least efficient buildings, substantially reduces heating costs and mitigates energy poverty. Our findings highlight the need for targeted retrofit policies to ensure both equitable decarbonization and economic relief for vulnerable households.
    Keywords: Distributional effects, energy efficiency, retrofit, carbon prices, energy price crisis
    JEL: Q41 Q48 D31 D63
    Date: 2025
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp2119
  10. By: Becker, Max; Bendiek, Annegret; Kempin, Ronja
    Abstract: Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, a process of securitisation of the European Union's (EU) external action can be observed. From an institutional perspective, the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) increasingly overlaps with the Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP). However, this does not solve the problem of a lack of capacity to act in foreign and security policy. On the contrary, the trend towards the securitisation of EU foreign policy is a distraction from the long overdue reform of Europe's capacity to act in foreign and security policy. There are two options to finally improve this: a) a Europeanisation of the European pillar in NATO, and b) a communitarisation of the CFSP and CSDP.
    Keywords: Common Foreign and Security Policy, CFSP, Common Security and Defence Policy, CSDP, Green Deal Industrial Plan, ReArm Europe, qualified majority voting, securitization, European Peace Facility, EPF, migration agreement, third country agreement, De-risking, Friend-shoring, Global Gateway, GGS, European Defence Agency, EDA, European Defence Fund, EDF, Preparatory Action on Defence Research, PADR, European Defence Industrial Development Programme, EDIDP, Act in Support of Ammunition Production, ASAP, European Defence Industry Reinforcement through common Procurement Act, EDIRPA, EUMAM
    Date: 2025
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:316691
  11. By: Fitzenberger, Bernd (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Kagerl, Christian (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany)
    Abstract: "Germany’s labour market has remained relatively robust despite ongoing economic weakness and concerns about its competitiveness. The employment rate remains high, with dependent employment growing, although at a slower rate than before. However, economic challenges in the form of declining vacancy postings and rising unemployment are now visible, particularly affecting low-skilled and long-term unemployed individuals. Simultaneously, Germany faces a persistent shortage of skilled workers, with many positions requiring skilled labour remaining unfilled. The coexistence of rising unemployment alongside unfilled vacancies is a central concern for the country’s economic transformation. The labour market is being shaped by demographic shifts, digitalization, and decarbonization, all of which require new skills and adjustments in employment patterns. Germany’s productivity growth has been sluggish in recent years, with GDP per worker stagnating since 2017. The COVID-19 pandemic temporarily disrupted employment but also accelerated digital investments, though primarily among high-performing firms, deepening the digital divide. While the health and education sectors have absorbed much of the employment growth, they are characterized by lower productivity levels, contributing to the overall stagnation in productivity. Manufacturing, traditionally the backbone of Germany’s economy, has experienced a prolonged period of stagnation, with notable declines in production and employment, particularly in the automotive and metal industries. A drop in exports, especially to China, and high energy prices following the Russian invasion of Ukraine have exacerbated these struggles. The car industry faces additional pressure from weakening demand for electric vehicles and growing competition from Chinese automakers. Overall, manufacturing productivity has remained weak due to a lack of investment in advanced digital technologies. Despite economic difficulties, skilled labour shortages remain prevalent, particularly in smaller firms and industries such as construction and hospitality. Large firms and the public sector have an easier time filling their vacancies. A low rate of job reallocation further complicates the situation, as labour mobility is essential for adapting to new, innovative roles. The widespread use of short-time work (Kurzarbeit) during the pandemic contributed to stabilizing employment but could also have slowed down economic transformation by reducing workforce mobility. Germany must fully embrace digitalization and decarbonization to maintain its competitiveness. Routine-based, low-skilled jobs are particularly at risk of being replaced by digital technologies, with automation potential increasing over time even for more complex occupations. Digitalization has yet to significantly impact employment levels, but it is transforming job content and business activities, requiring workers to develop new skills. Similarly, the ecological transformation demands green skills, with a growing number of apprenticeships now linked to sustainability-focused occupations. A major obstacle to economic transformation is the decline in vocational training and continuing education. Firm-sponsored training, which had been widespread before the pandemic, has yet to recover to pre-2020 levels. The number of new apprenticeship contracts also remains lower than before COVID-19, posing risks to the development of a skilled workforce. Compounding these challenges, Germany’s educational outcomes have deteriorated, as evidenced by declining PISA scores and a substantial number of adolescents leaving school without formal qualifications. To address these structural challenges, Germany must significantly increase investments in education, vocational training, and workforce development. Enhancing digital skills and supporting job mobility will be crucial for improving labour productivity and ensuring economic growth. Without proactive measures to support the transition, Germany risks a continued decline in competitiveness, sluggish economic growth, and a persistent mismatch between labour supply and demand. Only by prioritizing human capital and embracing the transformation, the country can secure well-paid employment and sustain its position as Europe’s largest economy." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
    Keywords: Bundesrepublik Deutschland ; IAB-Open-Access-Publikation ; Ausbildungsquote ; Dekarbonisierung ; Auswirkungen ; Beschäftigungsentwicklung ; Bildungsinvestitionen ; demografischer Wandel ; Fachkräfte ; Hochtechnologie ; internationaler Wettbewerb ; Investitionspolitik ; lebenslanges Lernen ; Produktivitätsentwicklung ; produzierendes Gewerbe ; Weiterbildungsquote ; Arbeitskräftemangel ; technischer Wandel ; Arbeitsmarktentwicklung ; Wettbewerbsfähigkeit ; 2000-2024
    Date: 2025–05–02
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabfob:202512
  12. By: Kalyagin Grigory (Department of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University)
    Abstract: In this article, using the methods of law and economics, we study three practices of law enforcement and punishment of criminals, which in our time look very controversial and even ineffective, but which were quite widespread in early Modern Russia: 1) interpretation in court, alcohol intoxication as a mitigating circumstance; 2) the use of torture during interrogations not only of the accused, but even of witnesses; 3) replacing the cutting off of limbs, as a form of punishment for criminals, with branding and tearing out nostrils. The analysis shows that these institutional forms of law enforcement and punishment of criminals can be effective (from the point of view of the state) solutions in this area.
    Keywords: law and economics, optimal enforcement, crime deterrence
    JEL: K14 K42
    Date: 2025–03
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upa:wpaper:0074
  13. By: Cameron Haas (Department of Economics, UMass Amherst); Mateo Hoyos (Department of Economics, CIDE); Emiliano Libman (Conicet, Argentina); Guilherme K. Martins (Department of Economics, University of Leeds); Arslan Razmi (Department of Economics, UMass Amherst)
    Abstract: After decades of low and stable inflation, recent global events —such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine—triggered a resurgence in inflationary pressures, prompting central banks worldwide to tighten monetary policy. This paper examines whether monetary policy effectively curbs inflation by employing a trilemma-based identification strategy on a panel dataset of 36 developing and 8 developed economies from 1990 to 2017. Using higher-frequency monthly data, we improve on traditional quarterly or annual approaches by more precisely capturing central bank responses. By applying our theory-driven, trilemma-based identification strategy to a sample of developing countries, we bring novel insights to existing literature. Our findings indicate that monetary policy shocks have significant but impermanent effects on inflation. A 100 basis point interest rate hike lowers the price level by 3.7% at its peak after six months, with effects fading within 18 months. Crucially, our results do not exhibit the “price puzzle, ” reinforcing the credibility of our identification strategy. Additionally, we find that monetary policy effects are state-dependent, with stronger disinflationary impacts during high-inflation periods and in economies with lower GDP per capita or higher commodity export dependence. These findings highlight the heterogeneity in monetary policy transmission, underscoring the need for tailored policy responses across different economic contexts.
    Keywords: interest rates, monetary experiments, trilemma, instrumental variables, local projections
    JEL: E01 E30 E32 E44 E47 E51 F33 F42 F44
    Date: 2025–05
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:emc:wpaper:dte650
  14. By: Yandiev Magomet (Department of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University)
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the post-IPO stock underpricing phenomenon using a conceptually new approach – on the basis of data on the number of closed exchange dealings in stocks following a public offering, be it an IPO or an SPO. Two time periods when the phenomenon can be observed are identified. A new cause of the occurrence of the phenomenon in the second of those periods is suggested: the phenomenon occurs due to inflated expectations of speculative investors because of the rise in uncertainty on the stock exchange. A correlation is established between the number of dealings in stocks and the volatility of the stock yield in the first days following the public offering. The research is based on 49 IPO/SPO case studies, most of which were done on the Moscow Exchange.
    Keywords: IPO, SPO, number of transactions, stock exchange, underpricing, stock, Moscow Exchange, Russia
    JEL: G11 G12 G23 G32 G41
    Date: 2024–08
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upa:wpaper:0072
  15. By: Canan Yüksel Yücel (Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye, İstanbul, Turkey); Erol Taymaz (Department of Economics, Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey)
    Abstract: This study examines the impact of domestic outsourcing on the wages of workers performing outsourced tasks in Türkiye, using an administrative employee-employer linked dataset. Outsourcing events are identified by tracking worker flows across firms with specific properties. Unlike existing studies, our dataset incorporates buyer-supplier transactions, enabling us to confirm that a relationship between the predecessor and successor firm begins following the outsourcing event. This improves our ability to identify outsourcing events, which we use to explore wage effects of both high-skilled and low-skilled outsourcing. Our findings indicate that low-skilled workers experience wage losses from domestic outsourcing, while high-skilled, professional workers benefit, suggesting that domestic outsourcing may be one of the factors contributing to rising wage inequality.
    Keywords: Sanctions, Tourism, Foreign policy, Firm behavior
    JEL: F51 L25 L83
    Date: 2025–05
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:met:wpaper:2502
  16. By: Khakimov, Parviz; Diao, Xinshen; Goibov, Manuchehr; Ashurov, Timur
    Abstract: The agricultural sector accounted for one-third and one-fourth of total GDP in 2011 in 2022, respectively. In 2022 compared to 2011, both primary and off farm agricultural GDPs dropped, respectively by 13.2 and 3 percentage points, while primary agriculture employment share fell by 10.4 percentage points. The domestic market played a vital role in the recent agrifood system (AFS) growth, and a sizable portion of locally produced agrifood products was able to meet domestic demand. Though agroprocessing an important off-farm component of the AFS, grew more rapidly and thus contributed the most to off farm AFS growth, the aggregate size of off-farm components of the AFS did not increase to match with the structural change in the broader economy.
    Keywords: agrifood systems; markets; productivity; value chains; Tajikistan; Asia; Central Asia
    Date: 2025–04–25
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ceaspb:174329
  17. By: Khakimov, Parviz; Diao, Xinshen; Goibov, Manuchehr; Ashurov, Timur
    Abstract: On March 1, 2023, the Government of Tajikistan adopted a new sectoral program, “Agrifood System and Sustainable Development Program, ” for the period up to 2030. The program defined six priorities, namely (1) strengthening institutions, (2) enabling physical infrastructure, (3) creating an agriculture extension system, (4) ensuring food and nutrition security, (5) ensuring food safety and, veterinary and plant protection, and (6) establishing effectively functioning value chains. The Program aims to ensure sustainable development of the sector and enhance its competitiveness through structural and institutional reforms, by boosting sector productivity, creating new jobs, and ensuring food security. To inform the policy by providing empirical evidence, in this brief, first we assess and compare diverse contributions of different agrifood value chains to broad development outcomes, second, we assess the effectiveness of agricultural productivity-led growth across agrifood value chain groups for achieving multiple development outcomes (economic growth, job creation, declining poverty, and improved diets) and inclusive agrifood system transformation in Tajikistan.
    Keywords: agrifood systems; development; infrastructure; agricultural extension systems; food security; Tajikistan; Asia; Central Asia
    Date: 2025–04–25
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ceaspb:174330
  18. By: Khakimov, Parviz; Diao, Xinshen; Goibov, Manuchehr; Ashurov, Timur
    Abstract: Tajikistan’s agrifood system (AFS) accounted for 34.7 percent of Tajikistan’s national GDP and 58 percent of employment in 2022. Primary agriculture alone contributed one-quarter of total GDP and 54.9 percent of employment, while the four off-farm components of the AFS contributed about 10 percent of GDP and 3.2 percent of employment. The share of employment in primary agriculture in total employment in AFS (AgEmp+) is huge, 94 percent. The off-farm components of the AFS therefore accounted for close to 30 percent of AgGDP+ and only 5 percent of AgEMP+. Though Tajikistan is an agrarian economy, it imports a lot of foods, and the shares of imports in the country’s total merchandise imports are consistently high, around 22 percent between 2016 and 2022. For the same period, food exports as a percentage of total merchandise exports were just 3 percent (World Bank 2023). Agrifood imports also grew more rapidly, increasing by a multiple of 16 between 2000 and 2023, while exports only doubled over the same period (Khakimov, et al. 2024).
    Keywords: agrifood systems; imports; food supply; commodities; Tajikistan; Asia; Central Asia
    Date: 2025–04–25
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ceaspb:174328
  19. By: Aydın, Yaşar
    Abstract: Die Türkei droht, in die Autokratie abzugleiten - auch wenn der Widerstand der Oppositionspartei CHP infolge der Verhaftung Ekrem çImamoæglus vorerst verhindert hat, dass die Partei einem Treuhänder unterstellt und die Großstadtkommune çIstanbul unter Zwangsverwaltung gestellt wird. Eine vollständige Autokratisierung der Türkei kann nur dann verhindert werden, wenn der Widerstand der Opposition auf breite und beständige Unterstützung in der Bevölkerung trifft, politische Instabilität das Wirtschaftswachstum gefährdet und die Europäische Union (EU) geschlossen reagiert. Es liegt nicht im Interesse der EU und Deutschlands, dass die Türkei durch weitere Autokratisierung politisch-wirtschaftlich in Schieflage gerät; denn dann könnte sie ihre regionalen Aufgaben - Eindämmung von Migrationsbewegungen, Abschreckung Russlands, Stabilisierung Syriens - nicht effektiv wahrnehmen. Die EU kann konstruktiv auf die Türkei einwirken, indem sie ihr Gespräche über die Modernisierung der Zollunion und über Visaerleichterungen in Aussicht stellt und ihr eine größere Mitsprache in der europäischen Sicherheitsarchitektur anbietet - geknüpft an die Bedingung, dass die Regierung die Spielregeln der Demokratie und Rechtsstaatlichkeit einhält.
    Keywords: Autokratisierung, Türkei, çIstanbul, Ekrem çImamoæglu, Verhaftung çImamoæglus, CHP, Straßenproteste, Widerstand der Opposition, Recep Tayyip Erdoægan, AKP, türkische Regierung, türkische Wirtschaft, EU, Deutschland, europäische Sicherheitsarchitektur
    Date: 2025
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpakt:316688

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