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on Confederation of Independent States |
| By: | Vasily Astrov; Artem Kochnev; Lisa Scheckenhofer; Vincent Stamer; Feodora Teti |
| Abstract: | Russia's foreign trade has shifted, causing a 30% depreciation in the Rouble due to declining oil prices and EU embargoes on Russian oil. While exports have decreased by 32%, imports have increased by 17% due to innovative ways to bypass trade sanctions. Despite EU restrictions, only around one-third of pre-war exports to Russia are fully sanctioned; most trade remains unaffected or subject to numerous exemptions. The central bank's rate hikes stabilized the exchange rate, but inflationary pressures persist. The Russian economy shows signs of recovery, driven by robust domestic demand from wartime fiscal stimulus, contributing about 10% to GDP in 2022-23. Real GDP and industrial production have grown by 2.5% and 3%, respectively, indicating recovery from the economic crisis. Sectors benefiting include manufacturing with significant military output, construction, and hospitality. This year's economic growth forecast for Russia is revised upward to 2.3%, but labor shortages and technological setbacks due to Western sanctions pose challenges. The expected slowdown to below 2% in the coming years could result from higher interest rates limiting credit growth. Prolonged conflict may lead to continued reliance on military spending, potentially causing post-war economic stagnation. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:econpr:_46 |
| By: | Cooper, Luke |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the evolving political economy of the Russo-Ukrainian War, arguing that despite its asymmetric nature, the conflict has become more balanced due to Ukraine’s institutional resilience and consistent financial support from allies. Neither side currently has a viable path to total victory. Both economies have adopted forms of military Keynesianism, though in distinct ways shaped by regime type and external dependencies: Ukraine on allied funding, Russia on volatile oil rents. Ukraine has secured financing until 2027 and maintained monetary stability, while Russia faces growing economic risks, including a potential credit crunch and balance of payments crisis. War has reshaped both states’ capacity for autonomous organisation, central to mobilising resources and restructuring their economies. As global geopolitics fragment and protectionism rises, the prospects for peace are increasingly defined by economic pressures and shifting alliances. A ceasefire, if reached, is likely to be unstable, with Russia potentially maintaining a militarised economy. Ukraine, meanwhile, has shifted its focus from military breakthroughs to securing long-term security guarantees. The outcome of negotiations will hinge not only on military dynamics but also on the internal strains shaping each regime’s strategic calculus. |
| JEL: | J1 |
| Date: | 2025–04–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:127985 |
| By: | Max Sina Knicker (X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris, LadHyX - Laboratoire d'hydrodynamique - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Karl Naumann-Woleske (X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris); Jean-Philippe Bouchaud (Académie des sciences [Paris, France], X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris, CFM - Capital Fund Management); Francesco Zamponi (UNIROMA - Università degli Studi di Roma "La Sapienza" = Sapienza University [Rome], Systèmes Désordonnés et Applications - LPENS - Laboratoire de physique de l'ENS - ENS Paris - SU - Sorbonne Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UPCité - Université Paris Cité - Département de Physique de l'ENS-PSL - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres) |
| Abstract: | The economic shocks that followed the COVID-19 pandemic have brought to light the difficulty, both for academics and policy makers, of describing and predicting the dynamics of inflation. This paper offers an alternative modelling approach. We study the 2020-2023 period within the well-studied Mark-0 Agent-Based Model, in which economic agents act and react according to plausible behavioural rules. We include a mechanism through which trust of economic agents in the Central Bank can de-anchor. We investigate the influence of regulatory policies on inflationary dynamics resulting from three exogenous shocks, calibrated on those that followed the COVID-19 pandemic: a production/consumption shock due to COVID-related lockdowns, a supply-chain shock, and an energy price shock exacerbated by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. By exploring the impact of these shocks under different assumptions about monetary policy efficacy and transmission channels, we review various explanations for the resurgence of inflation in the United States, including demand-pull, cost-push, and profit-driven factors. Our main results are four-fold: (i) without appropriate fiscal policy, the shocked economy can take years to recover, or even tip over into a deep recession; (ii) the response to policy is non-monotonic, leading to a narrow window of ''optimal'' policy responses due to the trade-off between inflation and unemployment; (iii) the success of monetary policy in curbing inflation is primarily due to expectation anchoring, rather than to direct impact of interest rate hikes; (iv) the two most sensitive model parameters are those describing wage and price indexation. The results of our study have implications for Central Bank decision-making, and offers an easy-to-use tool that may help anticipate the consequences of different monetary and fiscal policies. |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04238133 |
| By: | Martin Ottmann; Patricia Justino |
| Abstract: | Russia's invasion and occupation of Ukrainian territory since 2014 has forced its government to implement emergency measures that challenge legal order. This paper examines how citizens' exposure to these security responses shapes their perceptions of the rule of law. Using proximity to war violence as a proxy for state emergency measures, we analyse World Values Survey data collected before (2011) and after (2020) the Donbas conflict alongside spatially weighted conflict data. |
| Keywords: | Rule of law, Armed conflict, Survey, Trust |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2025-28 |
| By: | Ebun Akinsete (ICRE8); Lydia Papadaki; Phoebe Koundouri |
| Abstract: | The Black Sea possesses significant potential for a thriving blue economy; nonetheless, it encounters distinct hurdles in achieving sustainable growth of marine businesses. DOORS Black Sea, a European Union-funded initiative, seeks to tackle these challenges by creating an open research support system. DOORS implements a system of systems (SoS) to mitigate the effects of human activity and climate change on the marine ecology, fostering 'blue economy' opportunities and revitalising the Black Sea. Engagement with stakeholders is essential for the effectiveness and usefulness of DOORS, as it links residents, research, and industry. Multi-Actor Forums (MAFs) assemble national stakeholders from Bulgaria, Georgia, Moldova, Romania, Turkey, and Ukraine to aid scientists in prioritising Black Sea concerns. This paper delineates the MAF findings in the formulation of sectoral innovation paths for the Black Sea, integrating the outputs of the MAFs from all Black Sea nations. This approach facilitates the co-design of the region's System of Systems, equipping researchers with the requisite datasets to tackle environmental challenges and promote the sustainability of the Blue System. This study investigates the potential implications of the findings on the long-term development of the blue economy and associated policies in the region. |
| Keywords: | Black Sea, Stakeholder Engagement, Multi-Actor Forums, Innovation Pathways, Blue Economy, participatory approaches |
| Date: | 2025–05–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aue:wpaper:2533 |
| By: | Christophe Blot (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Céline Antonin (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Elliot Aurissergues (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Amel Falah (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Sabine Le Bayon (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Catherine Mathieu (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Ombeline Jullien de Pommerol (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Christine Rifflart (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Benoît Williatte (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Eric Heyer (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Xavier Timbeau (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po) |
| Abstract: | La croissance mondiale en 2024 fut de nouveau marquée par le dynamisme de l'économie américaine. Inversement, malgré le recul des prix de l'énergie, la croissance est restée atone dans la zone euro, en particulier en Allemagne, même si d'autres pays comme l'Espagne ont maintenu une dynamique plus favorable. L'inflation a poursuivi sa baisse ce qui a conduit les banques centrales à mettre un terme au resserrement monétaire puis à baisser légèrement leurs taux directeurs.La perspective des hausses des droits de douane devrait freiner la désinflation et même accroître l'inflation aux États-Unis. Il en résulterait un ralentissement du commerce mondial tandis que les ménages verront leur pouvoir d'achat amputé par cette taxe supplémentaire sur les importations. La croissance mondiale sera donc freinée, d'autant plus que les pays sont dépendants du marché américain pour leurs exportations. Dans ces conditions, les banques centrales devront de nouveau arbitrer entre leur objectif de stabilité des prix et la croissance. À court terme, la multiplication des annonces de hausses de droits de douane accroît fortement l'incertitude.La croissance mondiale sera plus faible en 2025 et 2026 mais résisterait grâce au soutien de la politique monétaire. Par ailleurs, le soutien budgétaire sera moindre qu'anticipé aux États-Unis du fait des coupes annoncées sur les dépenses publiques. En Europe, la poursuite de la guerre en Ukraine et des tensions avec la Russie conduiront à des hausses des dépenses militaires. L'orientation de la politique budgétaire sera moins restrictive et même expansionniste en Allemagne qui s'engage dans un plan de relance. |
| Date: | 2025–04–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05028923 |
| By: | Witteveen, Dirk; Hossain, Mobarak |
| Abstract: | This article examines the association between modernization and career growth of American men and European immigrants, focusing on heterogeneity along ancestry, ethnicity, and early-career class position. Analyses rely on datasets built with individual-level linked historical Censuses (1901–1940), which longitudinally map socio-economic indices of full occupational careers of late-nineteenth-century population birth cohorts (1884–1891). Modernization is measured by time-variant and metropolitan area-specific indicators of key industries, employment chances, domestic migration, and urbanicity. Contradicting modernization theory and the logic of industrialism, results demonstrate that macroeconomic opportunity structures do not explain differences in career growth curves of first- and second-generation immigrants in comparison to White men with US-born parents. Instead, we argue that structural ethnic cleavages, in combination with early-career class allocation, account for most of the observed immigrant variation in intragenerational mobility. We also find that the career growth curves of second-generation immigrants from Ireland, the Nordic countries, and Russia, in particular, far exceed those of multi-generational American men, but only if they started their careers in the working-class rather than the agricultural sector. |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2025–03–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:127628 |
| By: | Alexandru Cojocaru (The World Bank) |
| Abstract: | The study undertakes a first quantitative empirical application of Joseph Fishkin’stheory of opportunity bottlenecks. Taking advantage of survey data on key features ofopportunity bottlenecks in the Life in Transition survey for a large set of countries inEurope and Central Asia, the study describes the extent of instrumental bottlenecks, namely the need for personal connections to gain access to a set of key opportunities inlife, such as a good job or university education. These opportunity bottlenecks are thenshown to be relevant for people’s evaluations of job and life satisfaction, and for theiraspirations of future socio-economic mobility. Moreover, the need for, and availabilityof, informal connections are material to individual employment sector location, whethergovernment or private sector. While the availability of informal connections need notnegate the constraining effects of opportunity bottlenecks in theory, the results suggestthat in practice, informal connections fully undo the the negative effects imposed byopportunity bottlenecks. |
| Keywords: | opportunity bottlenecks, inequality of opportunity, opportunity pluralism |
| JEL: | D3 I32 P20 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inq:inqwps:ecineq2025-683 |
| By: | Artikova, Aziza; Egamberdiev, Bekhzod; Khamidov, Imomjon; Primov, Abdulla |
| Abstract: | Kazakhstan represents one of the largest economies in the Central Asian region. Over recent years, Kazakhstan has experienced a rise in temperature and pollution levels due to its overreliance on fossil fuels in energy industries. The rise in temperature and pollution levels has contributed to the rise of extreme weather conditions, including floods, and the increase in health issues and mortality rates. This working paper analyses the current condition in the Oskemen region of Kazakhstan in terms of air pollution indicators. The manuscript also provides related consequences and solutions to the current environmental problems in the region. |
| Keywords: | Environment, Economic analysis, Central Asia |
| JEL: | F64 N5 O1 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:316141 |