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on Confederation of Independent States |
| By: | Margaryta Klymak; Andrew Kosenko; Oleg Korenok; Dariia Mykhailyshyna; Kathryn Vasilaky |
| Abstract: | We analyze how military events, casualties, and media coverage influence same-day donations to a major Ukrainian nonprofit supporting the military during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In a unique setting, we exploit random variation in attacks on civilians across time to estimate that one additional civilian fatality causes between $4, 860 and $6, 992 in same-day donations, and leads to at least $15, 550 in cumulative donations. Disentangling the effects of events and media coverage, we estimate that a 1% increase in media mentions of military activity leads to a $2, 584 increase in same day donations and an $8, 121 increase in cumulative donations. |
| Keywords: | Charitable giving; conflict; public goods |
| JEL: | D64 D74 H41 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:csa:wpaper:2025-04 |
| By: | Lisa Scheckenhofer; Feodora A. Teti; Joschka Wanner; Feodora Teti; Feodora Teti |
| Abstract: | The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 led to unprecedented sanctions aimed at denying Russia access to critical technologies essential for sustaining its war efforts. This paper examines whether trade sanctions targeting military goods were undermined by evasion, specifically through transshipment through Russia-friendly countries. We find that Russia-friendly countries are 20 pp more likely to export military goods to Russia relative to neutral countries after the war began, while exports of military goods from Western allies to these countries also increased. Our results show that weak enforcement significantly undermines the effectiveness of sanctions. |
| Keywords: | trade sanctions, sanction evasion, military goods trade |
| JEL: | F14 F51 K42 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11743 |
| By: | Beaufils, Timothé; Jakob, Michael; Kalkuhl, Matthias; Richter, Philipp M.; Spiro, Daniel; Stern, Lennart; Wanner, Joschka |
| Abstract: | • By reducing reliance on fossil fuels, EU climate policy substantially lowers Russia's financial strength, thereby limiting its military capabilities to sustain its aggression on Ukraine and beyond. • We provide estimates for the security dividend of EU climate policy. • A one-euro reduction in oil consumption in the EU results in a security dividend of 37 cents (central estimate). • Based on the security dividend alone, a significant carbon price (central estimate of 60 euros per ton of CO2) on oil consumption is justified - in addition to its climate, terms-of-trade, and local health benefits. • Ambitious EU climate policy that reduces demand for oil and natural gas should be seen as an important pillar of the European security architecture, complementing military spending, diplomatic efforts, and continued support to Ukraine. |
| Abstract: | • Durch die Verringerung der Abhängigkeit von fossilen Energieträgern kann die EU-Klimapolitik die Finanzkraft Russlands deutlich verringern und damit dessen militärische Fähigkeiten zur Fortführung der Aggression gegen die Ukraine und darüber hinaus einschränken. • Wir liefern Schätzungen für die Sicherheitsdividende der EU-Klimapolitik. • Eine Reduzierung des Ölverbrauchs in der EU um einen Euro führt zu einer sicherheitspolitischen Dividende von 37 Cent (zentrale Schätzung). • Allein auf der Grundlage der Sicherheitsdividende ist ein signifikanter CO2-Preis (zentrale Schätzung von 60 Euro pro Tonne CO2) auf den Ölverbrauch gerechtfertigt - zusätzlich zu den Vorteilen für Klima, Terms of Trade und lokale Gesundheit. • Eine ehrgeizige EU-Klimapolitik, die die Nachfrage nach Erdöl und Erdgas reduziert, sollte als wichtiger Pfeiler der europäischen Sicherheitsarchitektur gesehen werden, der Militärausgaben, diplomatische Bemühungen und die weitere Unterstützung der Ukraine ergänzt. |
| Keywords: | EU climate policy, Security dividend, Russia, Ukraine, Defense spending, Geopolitical externality, EU-Klimapolitik, Sicherheitsdividende, Russland, Ukraine, Verteidigungsausgaben, Geopolitische Externalität |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkpb:315745 |
| By: | Beaufils, Timothé; Jakob, Michael; Kalkuhl, Matthias; Richter, Philipp M.; Spiro, Daniel; Stern, Lennart; Wanner, Joschka |
| Abstract: | • Durch die Verringerung der Abhängigkeit von fossilen Energieträgern kann die EU-Klimapolitik die Finanzkraft Russlands deutlich verringern und damit dessen militärische Fähigkeiten zur Fortführung der Aggression gegen die Ukraine und darüber hinaus einschränken. • Wir liefern Schätzungen für die Sicherheitsdividende der EU-Klimapolitik. • Eine Reduzierung des Ölverbrauchs in der EU um einen Euro führt zu einer sicherheitspolitischen Dividende von 37 Cent (zentrale Schätzung). • Allein auf der Grundlage der Sicherheitsdividende ist ein signifikanter CO2-Preis (zentrale Schätzung von 60 Euro pro Tonne CO2) auf den Ölverbrauch gerechtfertigt - zusätzlich zu den Vorteilen für Klima, Terms of Trade und lokale Gesundheit. • Eine ehrgeizige EU-Klimapolitik, die die Nachfrage nach Erdöl und Erdgas reduziert, sollte als wichtiger Pfeiler der europäischen Sicherheitsarchitektur gesehen werden, der Militärausgaben, diplomatische Bemühungen und die weitere Unterstützung der Ukraine ergänzt. |
| Abstract: | • By reducing reliance on fossil fuels, EU climate policy substantially lowers Russia's financial strength, thereby limiting its military capabilities to sustain its aggression on Ukraine and beyond. • We provide estimates for the security dividend of EU climate policy. • A one-euro reduction in oil consumption in the EU results in a security dividend of 37 cents (central estimate). • Based on the security dividend alone, a significant carbon price (central estimate of 60 euros per ton of CO2) on oil consumption is justified - in addition to its climate, terms-of-trade, and local health benefits. • Ambitious EU climate policy that reduces demand for oil and natural gas should be seen as an important pillar of the European security architecture, complementing military spending, diplomatic efforts, and continued support to Ukraine. |
| Keywords: | EU-Klimapolitik, Sicherheitsdividende, Russland, Ukraine, Verteidigungsausgaben, Geopolitische Externalität, EU climate policy, Security dividend, Russia, Ukraine, Defense spending, Geopolitical externality |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkpb:315746 |
| By: | Gustafsson Kurki, Pär (Swedish Defence Research Agency - FOI) |
| Abstract: | A presidential decision in 2009 re-established the military clergy (voennoe dukhovenstvo) in Russia after a 91 year hiatus. In this article, the main purpose is to survey the military clergy as an institution and discuss some of its key characteristics, such as the theological underpinning, the number of military priests, their legal status, recruitment and training, organisation, work tasks, and conditions of employment. A key conclusion is that the military clergy functions as a mouthpiece for the Russian executive’s militaristic propaganda and promulgates pseudo-theological justifications for Russian wars of expansion among the troops. |
| Date: | 2025–04–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:hk6mj_v1 |
| By: | Adar, Sinem; Asseburg, Muriel; Azizi, Hamidreza; Klein, Margarete; Steinberg, Guido |
| Abstract: | On 8 December 2024, the Assad regime in Syria was overthrown by a rebel alliance led by Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). The collapse of the family dictatorship was made possible by shifts in regional and international power dynamics. Key factors included Turkish support for the rebels, the weakening of Iran and Hezbollah owing to Israeli military strikes and Russia's changing priorities in the context of its war against Ukraine. At the same time, the fall of the Assad regime has led to another shift in power relations in the region. The interests, priorities and actions of regional and international actors will define the room for manoeuvre of the new rulers in Damascus. Turkey and Israel have occupied territories in the north and southwest of the country, respectively. The Arab monarchies of the Persian Gulf are expected to exercise influence, too, as they will play a crucial role in the reconstruction of Syria. And the United States still maintains a military presence in Syria, although its future involvement in the country is uncertain. |
| Keywords: | Syria, Assad Regime, Bashar al-Assad, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), Islamic State (IS), balance of power, Turkey, Kurds, Iran, Hezbollah, Israel, Russia, war against Ukraine, Gulf Arab monarchies, United States, Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), al-Qaeda, Nusra Front |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:315535 |
| By: | Gustafsson Kurki, Pär (Swedish Defence Research Agency - FOI) |
| Abstract: | This is a response to Kathryn Hendley and Peter Murrell’s criticism of “The emergence of the rule of law in Russia”, Global Crime, Vol.14, No.1, 2013. In that paper, I challenge the main claim in Kathryn Hendley, Peter Murrell, and Randi Ryterman’s “Law, Relationships, and Private Enforcement: Transactional Strategies of Russian Enterprises” in Europe-Asia Studies, Vol.52, No.4, 2000. Hendley, Murrell, and Ryterman claim that economic actors in Russia relied on the law and commercial courts because the latter were relatively effective. I argue that, in the late 1990s, economic actors trusted the commercial courts because they believed that they could influence the judicial outcome with bribes. In their reply, Hendley and Murrell (2014) conclude that Gustafsson (2013) cannot teach us anything about Russia or about their own work. In this paper: I defend my assessment of the commercial courts and discuss the influence of widespread corruption in the Russia of the 1990s. I also argue that their favourable view of Russian law and legal institutions is based on a sample that is marked by a serious error. This means that their conclusion about my work is an opinion rather than a verified fact. |
| Date: | 2025–04–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:juq7g_v1 |
| By: | Schmitz, Andrea; Smolnik, Franziska |
| Abstract: | Russia's invasion of Ukraine has accelerated global dynamics that profoundly impact the post-Soviet South. Relations with Russia are still strong, but the former subalterns are raising their voices. The empowerment is most visible in their foreign relations, but also tends to strengthen incumbent regimes and the political structures on which their power is built. A widening radius of interaction reinforces perceptions of collective agency and reduces the incentives for political reform. The persistence of authoritarianism parallels the diminishing soft power of the EU and the West in general. In dealing with more assertive Eurasian partners the EU will have to come up with credible offers to strengthen existing relations and harmonise its policies for impact. |
| Keywords: | Central Asia, South Caucasus, Eurasia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Near Abroad, Eurasian Economic Union, EEU, authoritarianism, Great Patriotic War, orthodox faith, Belt and Road Initiative, BRI, Organisation of Turkic States, OTS, Collective Security Treaty Organisation, CSTO, Ilham Aliyev, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, 3+3 platform |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:315526 |
| By: | Kluge, Janis |
| Abstract: | Russia plans to significantly step up its military spending once again in 2025. Both the production of weapons and the recruitment of soldiers are becoming increasingly expensive. Over the past two years, strong government demand has triggered a war boom in parts of the Russian economy. Incomes have risen and there is new optimism about the economy. However, owing to labour shortages and the impact of Western sanctions, economic growth has stalled this year, while inflation has remained stubbornly elevated. The Central Bank is using very high interest rates to fight price increases, which is creating more headwinds for the economy but has so far failed to slow inflation. Amid the deteriorating outlook for the Russian economy in 2025, the country is more vulnerable to economic crises. New sanctions or a drop in oil prices could trigger a recession. |
| Keywords: | Russia, military spending, war against Ukraine, inflation, Central Bank, price increases, economic crises, sanctions, military-industrial complex |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:315521 |
| By: | Fischer, Sabine |
| Abstract: | For the past three years, Ukraine has not allowed Russia to win its illegal war of aggression. During long periods of the war, the parties have found themselves in a military and diplomatic stalemate. Now US President Donald Trump has sided with the aggressor. "Nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine", the principle that has guided Western policy since February 2022, no longer applies for Washington. Trump has fundamentally changed both the international environment in which war is taking place and the balance between the parties, paving the way for Russia to dictate the terms of peace. To prevent this from happening, swift and decisive European action is essential. The new German government must play a key role here - and it must do so from its very first day in office. |
| Keywords: | Ukraine, Russia, war of aggression, US President Donald Trump, Putin, stalemate, ceasefire, "Make America Great Again" (MAGA), Zelensky |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:315540 |
| By: | Marcelo Santos (University of Coimbra, CeBER and Faculty of Economics); Tiago Neves Sequeira (University of Coimbra, CeBER and Faculty of Economics) |
| Abstract: | The impact of food prices on food security and short-term economic cycles has recently come into focus due to global supply shortages caused by the Black Sea blockade and the war in Ukraine. We compiled a comprehensive database of prices and output to estimate the short-term effects of food prices on the business cycle both before and during the war. Our findings indicate that price increases do not necessarily lead to economic downturns, even in the face of supply shocks—challenging conventional wisdom. |
| Keywords: | Business Cycle, GDP per capita, War on Ukraine, Food Prices |
| JEL: | L2 M2 M5 O32 O33 O34 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gmf:papers:2025-02 |
| By: | Paul, Michael |
| Abstract: | Apart from several infrastructure projects which ultimately failed, and a surprise visit by the icebreaker Xuelong off the Greenlandic capital, Nuuk, the People's Republic of China has long maintained a cautious and reserved presence in the Arctic in the shadow of Russia and its fleet of icebreakers. But in July and August 2024, three icebreakers - Xuelong 2, Ji Di and Zhong Shan Da Xue Ji Di - made China's growing presence felt in the Arctic for the first time ever. Beijing is thus signalling more ambitious intentions, and the construction of a heavy icebreaker could enable China to establish a permanent presence in the Arctic Ocean. This development reached a peculiar climax in October 2024, when the Russian state news agency RIA Novosti ran the headline: "The Arctic is becoming Chinese." What are the reasons and implications of China's Arctic turn? |
| Keywords: | China, Russia, United States, USA, Arctic, Arctiv Council, polar power, Northern Sea Route, NSR, Belt and Road Initiative, shadow fleet, Bering Street, Murmansk-Memorandum, ICE Pact |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:315534 |
| By: | Sebastian Leitner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Sandra M. Leitner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Alireza Sabouniha; Sergey Utkin; Zuzana Zavarská (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Stella Sophie Zilian (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | Chart of the month Export data suggest the transition to electric vehicles is stalling in Europe by Zuzana Zavarská Russia-Ukraine Of peace, victory and the art of the impossible by Sergey Utkin Ukraine and Russia remain stuck in a zero-sum logic on all major issues, with diametrically opposed goals when it comes to Ukraine’s NATO membership, its military infrastructure and the outcome of the war. Nevertheless, were Trump to win the election, the new US president would probably force Ukraine to negotiate. The West’s lukewarm reception of Zelensky’s ‘victory plan’, presented in October 2024, may assist the Ukrainian leadership in shifting the blame for any potentially painful concessions onto its partners, who are unable to provide the support requested. What drives the demand for typical and atypical employment in Europe? by Sandra M. Leitner and Alireza Sabouniha Atypical, non-standard forms of employment have become more widespread, particularly in many advanced economies. This is of concern because of the negative impact on ‘atypical’ workers. We find that off-shoring and communication technology (CT) have been important drivers in the expansion of atypical employment in Europe – in the case of off-shoring, this has mainly been the case in service industries. The strictness of employment protection legislation (EPL) has played an important moderating role, damping down some of the negative effects, particularly in relation to off-shoring. The digital transition at work in the EU Socio-demographic challenges by Sebastian Leitner and Stella Zilian In this article we document patterns of age segregation in digital job tasks across the EU. We find clear generational differences, as younger workers are more likely to work in positions that require more frequent and more complex use of digital technology, whereas older workers are more likely to work in positions that require a lower level of digital skills or no digital skills at all. We further find evidence of a gender gap, with women exhibiting a lower probability than men of performing digital tasks. The gender gap is most pronounced among digital natives, and it decreases with age. Monthly and quarterly statistics for Central, East and Southeast Europe |
| Keywords: | automotive exports, electric vehicles, Zelensky’s ‘victory plan’, NATO membership, ceasefire negotiations, atypical employment, employment protection, off-shoring, technological change, digital transition at work, age segregation, gender gap |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:mpaper:mr:2024-10 |
| By: | Wadim Strielkowski |
| Abstract: | This paper focuses on assessing the potentials for the efficient low carbon development in green hydrogen and ammonia economy using an example of Ukraine as a case study. It describes the country prerequisites for the transition to renewable energy sources and outlines the ongoing green hydrogen projects. Moreover, it offers a comprehensive SWOT analysis of Ukraine engagement in the green hydrogen and ammonia economy. Furthermore, the paper employs a comprehensive bibliometric network analysis using a sample of 204 selected publications indexed in the Web of Science database. It is doing so by carrying out the network cluster analysis using the text data as well as the bibliometric data with the help of VOSViewer software. The results and outcomes might be helpful for researchers, stakeholders, and policymakers alike in devising effective strategies and policies aimed at rebuilding and recreating Ukrainian efficient low-carbon energy sector based on the renewable energy sources. |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2503.22326 |
| By: | Buchetti, Bruno; Bouteska, Ahmed; Harasheh, Murad; Santon, Alessandro |
| Abstract: | The primary objective of this study is to explore the dynamic relationships between equity returns or volatility and sentiment factors in European markets during both the periods preceding the COVID-19 pandemic, the COVID-19 itself, and the Russia-Ukraine war. We achieve this by applying the network methodology initially introduced by Diebold & Yilmaz (2014), along with its extensions based on realized measures and generalized forecast error variance decomposition, as proposed by Baruník & Křehlík (2018) and Chatziantoniou et al. (2023). Additionally, we investigate how the global sentiment factor influences the overall connectedness index by employing a quantile-on-quantile approach, following the methods outlined by Sim & Zhou (2015) and Bouri et al. (2022). To conduct our analysis, we utilize daily-frequency data encompassing the period from January 1, 2011, to December 31, 2023, covering the entirety of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022 across six European stock indices. Our primary discovery is the interconnectedness of both returns and sentiment. Furthermore, our resultsindicate that during the COVID-19 and Russia-Ukraine war, there is a notable increase in volatility spillovers among the analyzed stock indices, driven by the heightened interconnectedness between stock market returns. JEL Classification: G11, G12, G14, G40 |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, dynamic spillover and connectedness, European financial markets, investor sentiment, Russia-Ukraine war |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20253050 |
| By: | Ballbach, Eric J. |
| Abstract: | Driven by both political camps in Seoul, relations between South Korea and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) have deepened significantly since their initiation in 2005. While this intensified relationship was shaped to a large extent by geopolitical developments and increasing security concerns, it also reflects the respective priorities and motives of the different South Korean administrations. With another change in administration in South Korea looming, it is important to understand these priorities, and where and why the different administrations' motivations driving the country's relations with NATO intersect and diverge. |
| Keywords: | North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), Ban Ki-moon, Yoon Suk-yeol, Moon Jae-in, Republic of Korea (ROK), inter-Korea relations, Russia's war against Ukraine, Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), U.S.-China conflict |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:315530 |
| By: | Nicholas Lynch (Georgetown University) |
| Abstract: | Sanctions are a common tool in international diplomacy used to pressure governments into compliance. Sanctioning countries hope, by restricting access to international financial markets and limiting the capacity to trade vital goods and services, to force a target government to yield to policy demands or face a popular uprising that leads to its downfall. Complementing a long list of contributions analyzing the political economy of sanctions, I develop a political economy model of sanctions, illicit finance, and selectorate size. Building on these theoretical arguments, I hypothesize that sanctions result in an increase in illicit economic activity. This argument starts from the idea that autocratic regimes, faced with the constraining effects of sanctions, seek illicit channels to import the goods and capital necessary to support their regimes. To test this hypothesis, I draw on three carefully selected present-day cases and augment them with a large-N analysis. In this analysis, I establish a causal link between the onset of sanctions and increases in capital flight to offshore financial centers. From a policy perspective, these findings underscore the urgent importance of reassessing sanctions policy in response to foreign policy crises such as Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. |
| Keywords: | Sanctions; Illicit economic activity; Offshore financial centers; Capital flight |
| JEL: | F10 F30 F50 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drx:wpaper:202517 |
| By: | Isabella Gourevich |
| Abstract: | Key MessagesUkraine possesses confirmed reserves for two-thirds of the 34 raw materials classified as critical by the EU. Despite this geological richness, current extraction levels remain limited.The EU faces lower supply risks for raw materials currently mined in Ukraine than for those that remain part of the country’s untapped resource potential.Ukraine currently plays a minor role in EU raw material value chains. However, it is a potential future key partner in enhancing the EU’s resource security.Realizing Ukraine’s potential as a raw material supplier requires more than mining. Significant investment in downstream capabilities is essential to create integrated value chains.The EU must pursue a multi-pronged strategy: deepen partnerships with resource-rich and politically stable countries, expand domestic refining capacities, and accelerate recycling, substitution, and circular economy initiatives. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:econpb:_72 |
| By: | Günther G. Schulze; Nikita Zakharov |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we unveil targeted repression against journalists as an elaborate strategy used by modern autocrats to mitigate the risk of mass protests during autocratic elections—a common threat to their rule. Repression is deployed to discipline the media before elections to secure favorable media coverage of the incumbent, thereby discourage public dissent. In contrast, the reigns are loosened during off-election periods to allow the media’s credibility to be rebuilt. This dynamic creates distinct electoral cycles of media repression in autocracies. Our empirical study establishes these cycles using a unique granular dataset on the harassment of journalists in Putin's Russia and the predetermined, staggered timing of local elections. We then demonstrate the disciplinary effects on reporting about incumbents using a novel media coverage index. Finally, employing survey data, we show that media repression is extremely effective when it comes to dwarfing the threat of anti-government protests. |
| Keywords: | autocracy, elections, media repression, political cycles, protest |
| JEL: | D72 H10 P43 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11701 |
| By: | vJeff Luckstead (Washington State University) |
| Abstract: | Recent geopolitical events—including, the U.S.-China trade war, Brexit, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine—have heightened trade policy uncertainty, disrupted supply chains, and accelerated nearshoring. These shifts may have reshaped the role of globalization in agri-food trade, particularly in how distance, trade networks measured by the number of export destinations, and nearshoring influence trade flows. Using a structural gravity model, this study examines how these factors in agri-food trade have changed between 2010 and 2023. The results indicate that recent globalization trends have increased the impact of distance on primary commodity trade but reduced it for processed food trade, though these changes do not appear to be driven by any single event. Nearshoring has reduced trade in primary and minimally processed food but has not affected processed food trade. While trade networks do not influence primary commodity trade, they enhance trade in both minimally processed and processed food products. Importantly, the interaction between nearshoring and trade networks expands trade, suggesting that these factors jointly mitigate trade frictions. Finally, the findings indicate that countries with broader trade networks experience lower trade costs associated with distance. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural Trade; Distance Puzzle; Globalization; Nearshoring; Trade Networks |
| JEL: | Q17 F14 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drx:wpaper:202515 |
| By: | Ansari, Dawud; Gehrung, Rosa Melissa; Pepe, Jacopo Maria |
| Abstract: | Central Asian economies, particularly Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, are pursuing increasingly ambitious goals for renewable energy. Apart from China - an established player in the market - it has increasingly been Gulf countries that have been implementing respective projects, particularly Saudi Arabia and, to a lesser extent, the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Both China and Gulf countries seem to have found a cooperative approach that is based on sharing the Central Asian market along the value chain. This approach could be a blueprint for future Gulf-China relations, which have become relevant for global politics. Simultaneously, the dynamics also exemplify the growing number of energy and geopolitical dynamics over which Europe has little influence. For the European Union (EU) and Germany, the developments serve as a reminder: While intra-Asian dynamics are gaining importance, Germany and the EU risk being marginalised in matters concerning energy, climate, and geopolitics - and not just in Central Asia. In response, a more consistent Central Asia strategy is required, alongside a constructive and non-ideological approach towards relations with the Arab Gulf States. |
| Keywords: | Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, China, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates (UAE), EU, Germany, Central Asian market, Gulf-China relations, energy, geopolitical dynamics, ACWA Power Renewable Energy Holding, PowerChina, hydrogen, carbon capture and storage, climate technologies, fossil fuels, green energy |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:315531 |
| By: | Adolphsen, Ole; Könneke, Jule; Schenuit, Felix |
| Abstract: | With the Green Deal, the European Union (EU) has not only significantly increased the ambition of its climate policy in recent years, but it has also added an international dimension to European domestic climate policy. In fact, numerous recently adopted legal acts directly or indirectly affect international partners. Nevertheless, the internal and external dimensions of climate policy are not systematically interlinked in the new European Commission, and there is little strategic diplomatic support for the measures. In view of the increased importance of competitiveness and geopolitical constellations, there is an opportunity for a new strategy process. This could help EU institutions and member states coordinate the external dimension and achieve a meaningful advancement of European climate policy. |
| Keywords: | Green Deal, European climate policy, European Union (EU), European Commission, US President Donald Trump, competitiveness, geopolitical constellations, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Russia's invasion of Ukraine, European Parliament, Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), Net Zero Industry Act (NZIA), Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD) |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:315529 |
| By: | Adar, Sinem; Asseburg, Muriel; Azizi, Hamidreza; Klein, Margarete; Steinberg, Guido |
| Abstract: | On 8 December 2024, the Assad regime in Syria was overthrown by a rebel alliance led by Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). The transitional government under Ahmad al-Sharaa now faces enormous economic, social and political challenges. It has yet to establish control over the country as a whole; and jihadist groups such as the so-called Islamic State (IS) continue to pose a threat, as do (potential) insurgents linked to the former regime, among other groups. At the same time, the actions of various regional and international actors risk destabilising Syria or sabotaging the transition already under way. Regardless of whether that risk materialises, it is these external forces that are setting the bounds of the new rulers' room for manoeuvre. For its part, the interim government has started to lay off most members of the former regime's Syrian Arab Army and disband militias. It has also struck a deal with the Kurdish-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) about their integration into the new Syrian army and embarked on a political transition. Germany and its EU partners should support an inclusive transition process and help facilitate the comprehensive reconstruction of the country, not least by easing sanctions. Indeed, it is essential that geopolitical tensions surrounding Syria be de-escalated rather than exacerbated. |
| Keywords: | Syria, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), Ahmad al-Sharaa, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Assad, Russia, Israel, United States, Iran |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:315537 |
| By: | Kaya-Kasikci, Sevgi; Glass, Chris R.; Camero, Eglis Chacon; Minaeva, Ekaterina |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces a novel four-dimensional analytical framework to examine how universities are positioned within national artificial intelligence strategies amid intensifying geopolitical competition. Through systematic document analysis of policy frameworks across eight major global actors—the United Kingdom, Russia, India, the European Union, China, the United States, BigTech, and UNESCO (n=1, 836)—we identify distinct governance typologies that determine higher education's role in AI ecosystems. Our findings quantify significant variations in how universities are instrumentalized across governance contexts—from talent pipelines in market-led systems to state-directed innovation hubs in centralized approaches. We document the emergence of value-aligned "strategic education blocs" replacing universal academic networks, with India demonstrating unexpected leadership in education-specific policy provisions. This research advances theoretical understanding of "technological statecraft" in higher education, demonstrating how the interplay between sovereignty concerns, regulatory philosophies, value systems, and public-private dynamics creates systematically different operating environments for universities across geopolitical contexts. These findings provide critical benchmarks for understanding institutional positioning in the global AI landscape and challenge conventional internationalization frameworks in an era of technological nationalism. |
| Date: | 2025–03–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:a42rs_v1 |
| By: | Audi, Marc; Ahmad, Khalil; Poulin, Marc; Ali, Amjad |
| Abstract: | Digitalization has become a pivotal force shaping global trade and economic development, particularly across emerging economies. BRICS nations demonstrate diverse trajectories of digital expansion that reflect varying degrees of globalization, technological adoption, and policy frameworks. This study examines how different dimensions of globalization (economic, social, and political), along with internet penetration, R&D investment, GDP growth, and exchange rate movements, collectively influence digitalization in the BRICS economies. Employing panel data from 2000 to 2022, the analysis uses multiple econometric techniques, panel regression (fixed and random effects), robust least squares, fully modified OLS, dynamic OLS, and panel quantile regression, to capture both short-run and long-run dynamics, as well as distribution-specific impacts on ICT goods exports. Economic globalization, R&D expenditure, and GDP growth consistently show positive and significant effects on digitalization, broader internet penetration is especially critical at early stages. Social and political globalization produce nuanced outcomes depending on institutional and cultural contexts, while currency depreciation exerts a generally negative impact by making technology imports more expensive. The results underscore that BRICS policymakers should stabilize macroeconomic conditions, invest in R&D, expand internet access, and strategically engage with global markets to foster inclusive digital growth. Tailored governance measures and targeted capacity-building efforts are also vital for translating globalization benefits into sustainable digital transformation across these emerging economies. |
| Keywords: | Globalization, Digitalization, Internet Penetration, R&D |
| JEL: | O3 O4 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:124396 |
| By: | Milia, Matías F. (University of Notre Dame) |
| Abstract: | Since the early 2000s, the BRICS has emerged as a pivotal focus within the social sciences, framing discussions about shifts in global economic and political dynamics. This chapter examines how the concept of BRICS has evolved within social science discourse since the early 2000s, from its initial framing as an economic growth engine to a more complex phenomenon representing potential shifts in global governance and power dynamics. Through a systematic analysis of mainstream social science publications, the chapter maps the intellectual communities, geographic distributions, and funding sources that have shaped scholarly engagement with BRICS as a Global South phenomenon. Employing computational methods to analyze a specialized corpus, the research identifies key structural features of BRICS-related debates, disciplinary contributions, and underlying epistemic frameworks. By exploring how various social science disciplines—from economics and international relations to postcolonial studies and area studies—have approached BRICS, the chapter provides insights into how Global South subjects enter and circulate within mainstream knowledge production systems. This broad yet integrated analysis offers a comprehensive overview of how social sciences have documented, interpreted, and contributed to the evolving understanding of BRICS as a significant force in global affairs. |
| Date: | 2024–12–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:w792m_v1 |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | The National Bank of Moldova (NBM) has emerged from a challenging history regarding trust and accountability, significantly influencing its current transparency and communication practices. The NBM’s transparency practices align with core and expanded practices as defined by the IMF Central Bank Transparency Code and, in several areas, meet comprehensive practice requirements. External stakeholders view the NBM as a public institution that has recently become more dynamic and transparent, though there is room for improvement. |
| Date: | 2025–04–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2025/084 |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Growth accelerated in 2024, while inflation remained within the target band. Azerbaijan’s main challenges are to maintain the fiscal adjustment momentum to build fiscal buffers for intergenerational equity and resilience against shocks and to accelerate private sector-led diversification, considering dwindling hydrocarbon reserves and the global energy transition. |
| Date: | 2025–04–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2025/098 |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Azerbaijan’s economy has recovered from two downturns prompted by the collapse of global oil prices in 2015 and COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Since the previous FSAP in 2015, the financial soundness of its bank-dominated financial sector has improved significantly, enhancing its resilience amid recent global uncertainties. Indeed, the transfer of financial sector regulation back to the Central Bank of Azerbaijan (CBA) in 2019 has revitalized the regulatory reform agenda. Nonperforming loans have declined, and banks’ profitability has surpassed pre-pandemic levels. With government support, the largest state-owned bank—International Bank of Azerbaijan—has recovered from its 2015 distress. Nonbank financial intermediation (⅓ of financial system assets) is largely dominated by state-owned specialized institutions. |
| Date: | 2025–04–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2025/099 |