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on Confederation of Independent States |
| By: | GUISAN, Maria-Carmen |
| Abstract: | The International Development Reports IDER-2024 include 4 reports of year 2024: 1) Regional development and Quality of Life in the United States, 1960-2021. 2) Regional development and Quality of Life in 5 European conntries, 1960-2021. 3) Development and Employment by Sector in Ukraine, Russia and 3 Caucasian countries (Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia) for 1990-2022, 4) Financial Indicators and World Development in 164 countries. |
| JEL: | O5 O51 O52 O53 O54 O55 O56 O57 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eaa:ecodev:130 |
| By: | Kosyakova, Yuliya (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Rother, Nina (BAMF-FZ); Zinn, Sabine (DIW); Bartig, Susanne (FU Berlin); Biddle, Louise (DIW); Büsche, Matteo Jacques (DIW); Cardozo Silva, Adriana (DIW); Cumming, Philippa (DIW); Eckhard, Jan (BAMF-FZ); Gatskova, Kseniia (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Koch, Theresa (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Kosyakova, Yuliya (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Marchitto, Andrea (DIW); Schwanhäuser, Silvia (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Siegert, Manuel (BAMD-FZ); Sommer, Elena (DIW); Süttmann, Felix (DIW); Tanis, Kerstin (BAMF-FZ); Rother, Nina (BAMD-FZ); Zinn, Sabine (DIW) |
| Abstract: | "Background to the study and data Basis: - The Russian invasion of Ukraine has caused a massive refugee movement since February 24, 2022, with mostly women and children fleeing to European countries, including Germany. Around one million people from Ukraine have now been living in Germany for some time. - A robust database is essential to gain a differentiated and well-founded understanding of the living situation of these people. High-quality, reliable data based on a carefully developed survey design are crucial to adequately analyze the challenges and needs of the refugees and to develop evidence-based measures. - The IAB-BAMF-SOEP survey meets these high standards. As an annual panel household survey, it has also included Ukrainian refugees since 2023, thus creating the basis for an empirically sound analysis of their realities of life. The study of two arrival cohorts (arrival from February to the end of May 2022 and arrival from June 2022) additionally allows for the analysis of changes in the composition of the group of Ukrainian refugees. - The survey, which took place between July 2023 and early January 2024, was conducted primarily face-to-face (77.2 percent of interviews), supplemented by computer-assisted self-interviews (CASI: 15.4 percent) and online interviews (CAWI: 7.4 percent). A total of 3, 403 individuals from 2, 219 households were interviewed. - The data includes both household and personal level information about living situation, language, employment situation, integration, and plans for remaining in Germany. Newcomers who were interviewed for the first time also answered a life history questionnaire. - Sampling and weighting procedures based on the AZR ensure that the data is representative of Ukrainian refugees during the survey period. - The IAB-BAMF-SOEP Survey of Refugees is a joint project of the Institute for Employment Research (IAB), the Research Center of the Federal Office for Migration and Refugees (BAMF-FZ), and the Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) at DIW Berlin." (Text excerpt, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Keywords: | Bundesrepublik Deutschland ; Ukraine ; Aufenthaltsdauer ; Ausbildungsabschluss ; IAB-Open-Access-Publikation ; berufliche Integration ; Bildungsabschluss ; Bildungsbeteiligung ; Familienstand ; Geflüchtete ; Gesundheitszustand ; Herkunftsland ; Inanspruchnahme ; Kinderbetreuung ; Lebenssituation ; medizinische Versorgung ; Anerkennung ; Rückwanderungsbereitschaft ; Schulbesuch ; Sprachkenntnisse ; IAB-BAMF-SOEP-Befragung von Geflüchteten ; IAB-BAMF-SOEP-Befragung von Geflüchteten ; Wohnsituation ; Zukunftsperspektive ; 2023-2024 |
| Date: | 2025–03–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabfob:202505 |
| By: | Berlinschi, Ruxanda; Verhaest, Dieter; Poelmans, Eline; Adriaenssens, Stef |
| Abstract: | This study documents self-selection on human capital for Ukrainian refugees. We compare the socio-demographic characteristics of a representative sample of Ukrainian refugees who registered in Belgium in the fall of 2022 with those of the Ukrainian population before the war. Contrarily to previous studies, we find negative self-selection on human capital, particularly for men and for refugees arriving from the low conflict intensity regions of Ukraine. At the same time, refugees from the low conflict intensity regions arrive with more locally-specific human capital, such as knowledge of the French language, previous visits to Belgium, and access to social networks in Belgium. Such self-selection, driven by individual incentives - economic and patriotic - has societal benefits, such as reduced brain drain for Ukraine and improved job matching in European countries offering protection. |
| Keywords: | Russia-Ukraine war, refugees, human capital, self-selection |
| JEL: | F22 F5 H12 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1591 |
| By: | Cooper, Julian |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the growth of military production in Russia since the onset of the war against Ukraine in February 2022. Utilizing official data from Rosstat, the study explores how military production is classified within Russian industrial output statistics. The analysis reveals significant increases in the production of military goods, particularly in the machine building and chemical industries, despite the impact of Western sanctions. The paper highlights the complexities of isolating military production due to the inclusion of civilian goods produced by defense companies. The findings suggest that while sanctions have affected the types and modernity of military goods, they have not significantly hindered Russia's ability to produce these goods in large quantities. The study concludes that the Russian economy has been militarized to a partial extent, supporting the view that it is not a full-scale war economy but one adapted to conducting a war. |
| Keywords: | Russia, economy, war, sanctions |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bofitb:314415 |
| By: | Parviainen, Sinikka; Pyle, William |
| Abstract: | This Policy Brief examines the economic well-being of Russian households in the wake of warrelated sanctions, leveraging ten years of data from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS). Building on macroeconomic indicators suggesting resilience, we analyze subjective wellbeing, consumption patterns, and financial security across demographic and geographic groups. Our general findings point to increased satisfaction and savings, although we also find disparities. Ethnic Russians, for one, appear to be doing relatively well, whereas the opposite holds for retirement age citizens. The results offer insight into Russia's adaptability to sanctions and carry implications for political stability. |
| Keywords: | Russia, households, economy, sanctions, war |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bofitb:314418 |
| By: | Khamidov, Imomjon; Egamberdiev, Bekhzod |
| Abstract: | Environmental issues adversely impact air quality, biodiversity, and socio-economic conditions in Central Asia. This paper utilizes the Life in Transition dataset to analyse climate change awareness and willingness to mitigate among populations from Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. Our findings reveal that public perceptions of environmental problems vary, with the highest concerns about air pollution, waste, species loss, temperature fluctuations, natural disasters, and disease spread noted in Uzbekistan and the Kyrgyz Republic. Conversely, awareness and concern for environmental issues in Tajikistan are relatively low. |
| Keywords: | environmental problems, climate change, public perception, willingness to contribute, Central Asia |
| JEL: | Q54 Q56 P48 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:314939 |
| By: | Liza Archanskaia; Plamen Nikolov; Wouter Simons; Lukas Vogel |
| Abstract: | The EU corporate sector has been subject to severe shocks in recent years, i.e., the administrative restrictions on activity in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, the supply bottlenecks in its aftermath, and more recently the spike in energy prices in the context of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine by the Russian Federation. This paper uses the latest available industry- and firm-level data to quantify the impact of the spike in energy prices on cost-price dynamics and corporate profitability of non-financial corporations (NFCs). Firstly, we document price-cost margin developments at the country-industry level by computing production cost indices at quarterly frequency. In this step, input-output tables are used to construct implicit input deflators. Secondly, we plug these price-cost margin developments into the latest available financial statements of the firm to simulate the evolution of profitability over 2022-2023. Thirdly, we characterise the evolution of profitability for publicly listed EU firms, based on their published financial accounts up to 2023. In the first step, we uncover a positive relationship between production cost increases and the energy intensity of the industry, only partly compensated by producer price growth. In the second step, we find that 20% of NFCs had negative cumulative operating profits over 2022-2023. About half of these firms posted positive profits in 2021, underpinning the contribution of partial pass-through to a deterioration of corporate profitability. In the third step, we provide an indirect robustness check of our simulations, by showing that the spike in energy prices had a negative effect on NFC profitability overall. Further, we assess the role of exposure to the shock. We find that profitability growth of energy intensive firms was pushed into negative territory over 2016-2023. This result holds for gross, operating, and net profit margins. Overall, the results suggest that while there has been substantial pass-through of production cost increases to producer prices, dampening the impact on profitability, the spike in energy prices was associated with a deterioration in cost competitiveness. Longer-term challenges remain, particularly for energy-intensive industries, that require more structural solutions. |
| JEL: | C23 C67 D22 D24 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:euf:dispap:216 |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Macroeconomics and Economic Growth-Economic Growth Poverty Reduction-Poverty Assessment Environment-Climate Change Impacts Macroeconomics and Economic Growth-Inflation |
| Date: | 2023–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:40474 |
| By: | Sophie M. Behr; Till Köveker; Merve Kücük |
| Abstract: | Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 was accompanied by a significant reduction of its gas supply to Europe, causing sharp energy price surges and prompting governments to respond with public appeals and programs aimed at reducing consumption. This paper investigates the effects of price increases and non-monetary factors, such as public appeals and saving programs, on residential energy savings during the crisis. Using a unique building-level dataset on residential energy consumption and prices in Germany, we identify price-driven savings and energy price elasticities with a DiD-PSM approach. By comparing buildings that faced price increases to buildings with constant prices, we can isolate price-driven savings from contemporaneous non-monetary effects. Our findings reveal that while increased prices led to moderate short-run energy savings, the majority of observed savings were driven by non-monetary factors. Consequently, we identify a relatively low short-run price elasticity of residential heat energy demand of -0.07. Going beyond average effect estimation, we use two machine learning methods to calculate building-level price-driven and non-price-driven savings, then analyzing their variation with socio-economic characteristics using census data. |
| Keywords: | Energy crisis, Energy policy, Causal inference, Double machine learning |
| JEL: | Q41 Q48 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp2112 |
| By: | Diego Ambasz; Denis Nikolaev; Sergey Malinovskiy; Adrien Olszak-Olszewski; Polina Zavalina; Javier Botero Álvarez |
| Keywords: | Education-Education Reform and Management Education-Curriculum & Instruction Science and Technology Development-Technology Innovation |
| Date: | 2023–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:40502 |
| By: | Piotr Koryś (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences); Marcin Wroński (Collegium of World Economy, SGH Warsaw School of Economics; Visiting Scholar, Minda de Gunzburg, Center for European Studies, Harvard University) |
| Abstract: | We estimate the impact of railway construction on local populations in Russian Poland in the 19th century. The initial wave of railway expansion outpaced economic demand. From the late 1860s onward, locations connected to the railway network experienced significantly higher population growth. The economic effects of the connection to the railway network increased over time. State-funded military railway lines generated a smaller impact than private-owned lines. We also study the impact of the railway connection on social mobility proxied through a number of notable people born in a given city. However, we do not identify any robust impact. |
| Keywords: | economic history, Russian Poland, economic growth, railways |
| JEL: | N13 N33 N73 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:war:wpaper:2025-07 |
| By: | Jaschke, Philipp (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Kosyakova, Yuliya (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Auer, Daniel (Collegio Carlo Alberto, University of Mannheim); Hunkler, Christian (Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin); Salikutluk, Zerrin (Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin und German Centre for Integration and Migration Research, DeZIM); Sprengholz, Maximilian (Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin); Kubis, Alexander (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany) |
| Abstract: | "Members of certain minority groups are disadvantaged in different areas of society, such as the labor and housing market and the healthcare system. This is referred to as discrimination if people are disadvantaged solely based on their group membership (e.g., ethnic background or religious affiliation), even though the objective matching criteria are equal, e.g., regarding qualifications. In this research report, we analyze the recruitment chances of immigrants and members of religious minorities using a vignette experiment. For this purpose, we recontacted around 10, 000 firms that had already taken part in the large-scale and representative IAB Job-Vacancy-Survey 1.5 years ago. Consequently, the follow-up survey as part of our study was very brief, requiring little additional effort by firms, as extensive information on a wide range of relevant information was already collected from their previous participation. This may explain the high response rate to our experiment of almost 50 percent. The analyses in this report are based on the responses of 4, 883 firms. Vignette experiments are particularly suited to causally study determinants of hiring prospects because by collecting employers’ assessment on sufficiently many vignettes (with randomized applicants’ characteristics), they provide a controlled setting to account for all relevant applicant characteristics. Even though vignettes describe fictitious situations, experiment results have been shown to provide high congruence with real decision-making. We provided firms with descriptions of fictitious job applicants, randomly varying, among other traits (such as job experience, language proficiency), origin countries (Syria, Turkey, Ukraine, Russia with “is German” as baseline) and religious affiliation (Christian and Muslim compared to a baseline without religious signal). Holding qualifications constant, on average, we do not find lower hiring probabilities for applicants born abroad compared to German applicants. However, our results provide strong evidence of anti-Muslim labor market discrimination in Germany. This effect is driven by applicants from predominantly Muslim countries (Syria and Turkey in our case), which confirms previous results in the literature according to which discrimination against Muslims originating from countries that are generally perceived as more authoritarian and gender unequal is stronger. This is alarming given that – unlike in our vignette experiment – people in Germany born abroad are much more often Muslim than German-born people (almost a quarter compared to less than 2 percent). Looking at further applicants’ characteristics, we find strong evidence in favor of the so-called ‘motherhood penalty’, according to which females are hired less frequently than males if they have children. Moreover, human capital can, at least partially, alleviate foreign applicants' hiring disadvantages: Applicants born abroad benefit from higher levels of German language skills and from professional experience – particularly if obtained in Germany. Regarding firm characteristics, small firms, firms operating in the primary and secondary sector, and firms that do not hire internationally discriminate more. Most relevant for policy, firms facing labor shortages only increase hiring chances for advantaged applicant groups (German applicants and males) but not for disadvantaged groups. These results suggest that firms in Germany do not consider recruiting from traditionally disadvantaged groups – even if equally qualified – as a way to overcome often lamented labor shortages. A list experiment conducted with firms in parallel cross-validates that a significant proportion of firms in Germany discriminate against refugees and Muslims. Taken together, our results provide multiple avenues for policy action." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Keywords: | Bundesrepublik Deutschland ; IAB-Open-Access-Publikation ; Auswirkungen ; Benachteiligung ; berufliche Integration ; Berufserfahrung ; Diskriminierung ; Einwanderer ; Frauen ; Kleinbetrieb ; Minderheiten ; Muslime ; Personaleinstellung ; primärer Sektor ; IAB-Stellenerhebung ; IAB-Stellenerhebung ; sekundärer Sektor ; Sprachkenntnisse ; Arbeitsmarktchancen ; 2023-2023 |
| Date: | 2025–03–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabfob:202506 |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Finance and Financial Sector Development-Public & Municipal Finance Macroeconomics and Economic Growth-Fiscal & Monetary Policy |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:40563 |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Environment-Forests and Forestry Environment-Biodiversity Environment-Adaptation to Climate Change Information and Communication Technologies-Information and Records Management Energy-Fuels |
| Date: | 2023–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:40349 |
| By: | World Bank Group |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:40622 |
| By: | Akshar Saxena; Adanna Chukwuma; Seemi Qaiser; Armineh Manookian; Gevorg Minasyan |
| Keywords: | Macroeconomics and Economic Growth-Taxation & Subsidies Finance and Financial Sector Development-Access to Finance Health, Nutrition and Population-Food & Nutrition Policy |
| Date: | 2023–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:40345 |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Social Protections and Labor-Disability Environment-Adaptation to Climate Change Social Protections and Labor-Labor Markets Health, Nutrition and Population-Climate Change and Health |
| Date: | 2023–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:40538 |
| By: | World Bank Group |
| Keywords: | Environment-Adaptation to Climate Change Environment-Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases Macroeconomics and Economic Growth-Economic Growth Poverty Reduction-Poverty, Environment and Development |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:40608 |
| By: | Granziera, Eleanora (Norges Bank); Larsen, Wegard H. (BI Norwegian Business School); Meggiorini, Greta (University of Auckland); Melosi, Leonardo (University of Warwick, European University Institute, DNB, and CEPR) |
| Abstract: | We investigate how speeches by Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members and regional Federal Reserve presidents influence private sector expectations. Speeches highlighting upcoming inflationary pressures lead both households and professional forecasters to raise their inflation expectations, suggesting the presence of Delphic effects. While professional forecasters adjust their expectations in response to Odyssean communications—i.e., statements about the central bank’s reaction to the announced inflationary pressures—households do not, leaving Delphic effects dominant. A novel general equilibrium model, in which agents differ in their ability to interpret Odyssean signals, accounts for these differential patterns. |
| Keywords: | Central bank communication ; Delphic, Odyssean ; inflation expectations ; textual analysis ; expectation formation |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1555 |
| By: | World Bank Group |
| Keywords: | Health, Nutrition and Population-Health Insurance Health, Nutrition and Population-Health Policy and Management |
| Date: | 2023–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:40482 |