|
on Confederation of Independent States |
| By: | Tulun, Teoman Ertuğrul (Center For Eurasian Studies (AVİM)) |
| Abstract: | In our AVİM analysis published at the beginning of 2017 entitled “Front Line and Powder Keg of The New Cold War: The Baltic Sea Region, Baltic Countries, and Kaliningrad”, we stated that “following the dissolution of the Soviet Union and subsequent accession of Poland and the Baltic Countries into NATO, Kaliningrad became a vital military outpost for Russia” and pointed out that Russia had moved nuclear-capable Iskander-M missiles into the Kaliningrad in October 2016 along with the highly-capable S-400 anti-aircraft weapon system. As it is known, the Kaliningrad Oblast is an exclave of the Russian Federation located on the coast of the Baltic Sea between Poland and Lithuania. |
| Date: | 2023–10–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:vf8rp_v1 |
| By: | Vasily Astrov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Doris Hanzl-Weiss (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | Despite the formal absence of sanctions, gas trade between Russia and the EU has effectively collapsed over the past three and a half years. This has been the outcome of several factors the EU strategy of reducing dependence on Russian gas, Russia’s own supply cuts, physical damage to the crucial pipeline infrastructure and Ukraine’s reluctance to prolong the gas transit contract. The resulting shock of reduced Russian supplies has primarily been absorbed via energy savings, while gas imports from other countries have increased only insignificantly. The case studies of three Central European EU member states Slovakia, Czechia and Hungary – which had all been highly dependent on Russian gas before the start of the war in Ukraine but have adopted very different diversification strategies over the past few years – suggest that the negative effects from reduced Russian supplies could be minimised through the precautionary measures taken and also because of the interconnected nature of these countries’ gas networks with those of other EU countries. Of the four main pipelines that used to bring Russian gas to Europe before the war, only TurkStream remains in operation, although its future is also potentially uncertain. Against this background, European countries would be well advised to expand their gas storage capacities in order to cushion themselves from any future supply shocks and reduce dependence on short-term price fluctuations. |
| Keywords: | gas dependency, energy consumption, gas storage |
| JEL: | Q4 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:pnotes:pn:91 |
| By: | Vasily Astrov; Lisa Scheckenhofer; Camille Semelet; Feodora Teti |
| Abstract: | In 2023, Russia experienced a 3.5% economic growth, but forecasts for 2024 indicate a slowdown to 1.5% due to tightened monetary policies and the expected global economic slowdown. Despite large military spending and Western energy sanctions eroding budget revenues, fiscal deficits have been generally kept under control. Intensified scrutiny of third-country firms violating energy sanctions widened discounts on Russian oil prices in late 2023. Generally, Russian import patterns remained relatively stable. In particular, EU exports of economically critical and common high priority goods to Russia in November 2023 represent just 2% of its pre-war levels, underscoring the effectiveness of sanctions in halting direct exports. Besides China and Hong Kong, Türkiye and CIS countries became vital suppliers, meeting Russia's demand for economically critical goods and high-priority items. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:econpr:_47 |
| By: | Korhonen, Iikka; Simola, Heli; Solanko, Laura |
| Abstract: | Three years of war, sanctions and Russia's isolation from the global community have changed its economy in many ways. Some changes such as the degraded business environment and increased government presence in the economy are likely to persist. War has also exacerbated Russia's already poor demographic trends. While a break in the war and relaxation of sanctions would eventually at least partially reinvigorate Russian trade with the European Union and other economic blocs, Russia's heavy dependence on China undoubtedly continues. An end to the war, even an ugly end, would reduce pressure for public sector spending and help Russia get inflation back under control. A prolonging of the war and continuation of the current sanctions regime would mean further increases in public spending as sustaining the war is non-negotiable for the current government. Inflation would remain high and economic imbalances worsen. In all our scenarios, Russia's share of the global economy continues to decline. Russia, however, has the resources it needs to continue the war, the desire to fund its armed forces and the commitment to support its military-industrial complex come what may. |
| Keywords: | Russia, economy, war, sanctions |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bofitb:312567 |
| By: | Korhonen, Iikka; Simola, Heli; Solanko, Laura |
| Abstract: | Three years of war, sanctions and Russia's isolation from the global community have changed its economy in many ways. Some changes such as the degraded business environment and increased government presence in the economy are likely to persist. War has also exacerbated Russia's already poor demographic trends. While a break in the war and relaxation of sanctions would eventually at least partially reinvigorate Russian trade with the European Union and other economic blocs, Russia's heavy dependence on China undoubtedly continues. An end to the war, even an ugly end, would reduce pressure for public sector spending and help Russia get inflation back under control. A prolonging of the war and continuation of the current sanctions regime would mean further increases in public spending as sustaining the war is non-negotiable for the current government. Inflation would remain high and economic imbalances worsen. In all our scenarios, Russia's share of the global economy continues to decline. Russia, however, has the resources it needs to continue the war, the desire to fund its armed forces and the commitment to support its military-industrial complex come what may. |
| Keywords: | Russia, economy, war, sanctions |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bofitb:312568 |
| By: | World Bank; Government of Ukraine; European Union; United Nations |
| Keywords: | Conflict and Development-Armed Conflict Conflict and Development-Conflict and Fragile States Conflict and Development-Post Conflict Reconstruction |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:41082 |
| By: | Polina A. Popova (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This study explores the relationship between preferential mortgage programs and regional mortgage lending in Russia during the COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent recovery period. Using quarterly data from 87 Russian regions, the research examines how preferential mortgage programs — Standard Preferential, Family, Far Eastern, and IT — were associated with lending growth and delinquency rates. The findings underscore the complex interplay between housing policies, regional economic conditions, and mortgage market activity under varying external economic shocks. The study reveals that overall mortgage lending volumes were higher during the pandemic and post-pandemic periods in regions with greater adoption of preferential mortgage programs. This pattern suggests that these programs supported housing market activity, particularly in economically resilient regions. However, regions with higher program utilization also experienced elevated delinquency rates, reflecting the challenges of balancing increased borrowing with financial risks. Program-specific analysis highlights variations in lending dynamics and emphasizes the importance of tailoring housing policies to regional and demographic needs, providing insights for designing adaptive support measures that promote mortgage market stability and economic recovery. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, mortgage lending, preferential mortgage programs, Russian regions, financial stability. |
| JEL: | E31 G21 G51 H31 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:97/fe/2025 |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Finance and Financial Sector Development-Access to Finance Private Sector Development-Private Sector Economics Infrastructure Economics and Finance-Infrastructure Finance Agriculture-Agricultural Sector Economics Industry-Accommodation & Tourism Industry |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:40562 |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Environment-Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases Energy-Energy Production and Transportation |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:41017 |
| By: | Ngepah, Nicholas |
| Abstract: | Le conflit actuel en Ukraine a eu des consequences profondes au-dela des frontieres du pays, notamment sur la securite alimentaire et nutritionnelle dans dautres parties du monde. Il a perturbe les marches cerealiers mondiaux, en particulier ceux du ble et du mais, car lUkraine en est un grand exportateur. En 2013/14, lUkraine etait le sixieme producteur mondial de ble et en 2019/20, elle a exporte environ 18, 5 millions de tonnes de ble, soit 16 % des exportations mondiales (World Food Programme [Programme alimentaire mondial], 2022). Le conflit a entraine une baisse de la production agricole, en particulier dans les regions orientales de lUkraine, ou sont cultivees la plupart des cereales du pays. Associee aux perturbations des chaines dapprovisionnement au niveau mondial, cette situation a contribue a laugmentation des prix des cereales sur le marche mondial, avec des effets nefastes sur les pays qui dependent des importations de cereales.LAfrique du Sud et le Mozambique sont deux pays africains qui ont ete touches par la guerre en Ukraine, avec des effets significatifs sur leur propre securite alimentaire. Or la securite alimentaire est une question cruciale pour de nombreux pays en developpement, en particulier ceux de lAfrique subsaharienne, ou la faim et la malnutrition sont tres repandues. LAfrique du Sud et le Mozambique sont tous deux des importateurs nets de cereales et sont donc vulnerables aux fluctuations de leurs prix au niveau mondial. En Afrique du Sud le mais est un aliment de base et le pays depend fortement des importations pour satisfaire ses besoins interieurs. Bien que le Mozambique produise une grande quantite de mais, il importe egalement des quantites importantes de ble et dautres cereales. La hausse des prix de ces produits de base resultant de la guerre en Ukraine a donc eu un impact significatif sur les deux pays. |
| Date: | 2024–04–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aer:wpaper:516a4eb1-6e81-4407-a678-9e056c8e453a |
| By: | Vasily Astrov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Branimir Jovanović (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Artem Kochnev; Leon Podkaminer (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Josef Pöschl |
| Abstract: | Chart of the month Is Europe ready for an abrupt halt to Russian gas deliveries via Ukraine? by Artem Kochnev and Vasily Astrov Opinion Corner Economics is not doing enough to address the looming ecological disaster by Josef Pöschl It is often argued that, if individuals compete in the pursuit of maximum profit, this leads to an optimal allocation of resources. In some societies, this principle has indeed generated unprecedented economic prosperity. But up to now, most economists have preferred to ignore the uncomfortable fact that this prosperity – at least partially – relies on the exploitation of nature and is thus not sustainable. They should focus more on environmental issues, devising incentives for people and companies to behave in an environmentally responsible way across a wide range of sectors. From the Bretton Woods system to global stagnation by Leon Podkaminer After the demise of the Bretton Woods system, the world economy entered an era of deepening liberalisation at both the national and the international level. There has been a phenomenal rise in international trade. Surprisingly, this has halved the growth rate of global GDP – and has yielded many other undesirable outcomes. This article argues that this is all the result of excessive trade imbalances emerging under liberalised trade and capital flow arrangements, as well as the ‘race to the bottom’ with respect to wages. Labour taxes in the Western Balkans by Branimir Jovanović Labour tax rates in the Western Balkans are lower than in the nearby EU countries. They are also much less progressive and, in many cases, are even regressive, especially at higher income levels. This is due primarily to the cap on social contributions and the prevalence of low, largely flat personal income taxes. Such a tax structure raises concerns about tax justice and fairness, but it also deprives governments of crucial revenue that could be used for public goods and services. To address this issue, Western Balkan governments could introduce more progressive personal income tax systems and/or raise or eliminate the cap on social contributions. Monthly and quarterly statistics for Central, East and Southeast Europe |
| Keywords: | Ukrainian gas transit, gas storage capacities, ecological disaster, environmental economics, Bretton Woods system, race to the bottom, theory of comparative advantages, trade imbalances, personal income tax, social security contributions, tax wedges |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:mpaper:mr:2024-09 |
| By: | Ferid Belhaj |
| Abstract: | Geopolitical tensions and competing interests define the Eastern Mediterranean's energy landscape. Vast natural gas reserves offer economic potential, but overlapping maritime claims and ongoing conflicts—particularly the Israel-Lebanon war and the Gaza conflict—threaten existing agreements and future projects. The European Union’s efforts to reduce dependence on Russian gas initially positioned the region as a key supplier, but escalating instability now puts these ambitions at risk. Key factors include the impact of conflicts on gas exploration and exports, the roles of Turkey, Egypt, and Qatar, the influence of global powers and multinational corporations, and the uncertain prospects for regional energy cooperation. |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbcoen:pb011_25 |
| By: | Kässi, Otto |
| Abstract: | Abstract This research note examines the impact of economic crises on intangible investments, with a particular focus on why the growth in intangible investments in Finland stallad after the Great Financial Crisis. Intangible capital has proven to be the key driver of growth in advanced economies, but its financing is complicated by the fact that intangible assets cannot be used as loan collateral in the same way as traditional physical capital. Our analysis is based on the EUKLEMS & INTANProd database and financial statement data, which show that the slowdown in investment affected several key industries, not just the electronics sector centered around Nokia. Our findings suggest that, in addition to liquidity constraints, the “option value of waiting” induced by uncertainty played a crucial role in firms’ investment decisions. In other words, many firms postponed their intangible investments while waiting for better economic visibility. However, the investment behavior of both new and established firms followed a similar trajectory, emphasizing the role of uncertainty rather than liquidity constraints. Although intangible investments in Finland remain relatively high in international comparison, the country has fallen behind in intangible capital accumulation, particularly in relation to Sweden and the United States. Public support measures and risk-sharing mechanisms can help accelerate intangible investments but cannot fully eliminate the uncertainty associated with the broader economic environment. Based on available data, the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine on intangible capital have so far not been as severe as those following the financial crisis. |
| Keywords: | Intangible capital, Intangible investments, Economic crises |
| JEL: | E22 E32 |
| Date: | 2025–03–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rif:briefs:153 |
| By: | Yves Jégourel |
| Abstract: | Fidèles à leur histoire jalonnée de crises et d’envolées spectaculaires, les marchés mondiaux de matières premières ont connu des développements contrastés en 2024. L’or, le cuivre, le café ou le cacao ont ainsi atteint des sommets historiques, tandis que le pétrole, le nickel ou le blé ont, parmi tant d’autres produits de base, accusé des baisses d’ampleur variée. Entre une scène géopolitique sous tension en raison de l’aggravation du conflit au Moyen-Orient et de la persistance de la guerre en Ukraine et une macroéconomie décevante, les cours des matières premières se sont une nouvelle fois fait l’écho de l’instabilité de notre monde. Si l’exercice prédictif demeure toujours périlleux et qu’une grande prudence s’impose quant à l’évolution de leurs cours, les marchés mondiaux devraient à nouveau connaître en 2025 une importante volatilité sans réelle tendance haussière ou baissière, dans un contexte de fortes incertitudes économiques et politiques marqué par l’ère Trump. L’année 2024 fut placée sous le signe d’un apparent paradoxe : l’enregistrement de cours records pour certains produits de base et d’importants replis pour d’autres. Avec une croissance économique estimée à 3, 2 % à l’échelle mondiale selon le Fonds monétaire international (IMF, 2025) et à « seulement », 4, 8 % pour la Chine, les fondamentaux macroéconomiques qui portent traditionnellement la demande des matières premières industrielles – de l’énergie aux métaux de base – n’ont guère été au rendez-vous. Il était en cela logique que les marchés évoluent en ordre dispersé, sous l’effet de facteurs méso-économiques, météorologiques et géopolitiques. |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbcoen:pb010_25 |
| By: | Ахмет Алишер // Akhmet Alisher (National Bank of Kazakhstan); Мусса Айдынбек // Mussa Aidynbek (National Bank of Kazakhstan) |
| Abstract: | В данном исследовании изучается влияние колебаний мировых цен на нефть на бизнес-циклы Казахстана с использованием векторных моделей авторегрессии (VAR, TVAR) и модели Марковского переключения (MSM). Такой подход позволяет учесть, как линейные, так и нелинейные зависимости, а также асимметрию реакций экономики на изменения цен на нефть в различных экономических циклах. Результаты показывают, что негативные шоки цен на нефть в целом оказывают наиболее выраженное влияние на ВВП Казахстана в кризисные периоды, тогда как положительные шоки остаются статистически незначимыми. Пороговое значение квартальной динамики реальных цен на нефть, выявленное в модели TVAR, составляет -14%, при пересечении которого влияние цен на нефть на ВВП становится значительно более выраженным. Это значение подчеркивает чувствительность экономики Казахстана к крупным шокам на нефтяном рынке. Анализ модели MSM подтвердил наличие высокой вероятности перехода в кризисный режим при значительном снижении нефтяных котировок. Выводы исследования дополняют существующую литературу и предоставляют эмпирическую основу для разработки экономической политики, направленной на повышение устойчивости экономики к волатильности цен на сырьевые товары. // This study examines the impact of global oil price fluctuations on Kazakhstan’s business cycles using vector autoregression models (VAR, TVAR) and the Markovswitching model (MSM). This approach allows for the consideration of both linear and nonlinear relationships, as well as the asymmetry in the economy’s response to oil price changes across different economic cycles. The results indicate that negative oil price shocks exert the most pronounced effect on Kazakhstan’s GDP during crisis periods, whereas positive shocks remain statistically insignificant. The threshold value for the quarterly dynamics of real oil prices, identified in the TVAR model, is -14%, beyond which the impact of oil prices on GDP becomes significantly more pronounced. This finding highlights the Kazakh economy's sensitivity to major oil market shocks. The analysis using the MSM model confirmed a high probability of transitioning into a crisis regime in the event of a substantial decline in oil prices. The study’s conclusions contribute to the existing literature and provide an empirical foundation for the development of economic policies aimed at enhancing the resilience of Kazakhstan’s economy to commodity price volatility. |
| Keywords: | бизнес циклы, ВВП, цены на нефть, асимметрия, VAR, TVAR, Марковское переключение, экономический рост, Казахстан, business cycles, GDP, oil prices, asymmetry, VAR, TVAR, Markovswitching, economic growth, Kazakhstan |
| JEL: | C32 C52 E32 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aob:wpaper:64 |
| By: | Quartey, Peter; Atta-Ankomah, Richmond; Afful-Mensah, Gloria |
| Abstract: | The Ghanaian economy recorded its worst performance in the last three decades in 2022, evidenced by unprecedented levels of macro-economic imbalances. Although there were signs of fiscal slippages towards the end of 2019, the structural weaknesses in the countrys fiscal domain were exposed and weakened by the triple crisis covid-19 pandemic, Russia-Ukraine war and rising climate shocks. In addition, unsustainably high levels of public debt, especially rising external debt, has led to a steady increase in the amount of government revenues spent on servicing these debts. Spending an increasing share of the economys revenues on servicing debt has resulted in declining shares for public investment in infrastructure and social services (see Figure 1 and 2). This appears to have had the tendency to induce the government to borrow more. In May 2023, the country was classified as debt distress by the IMF. |
| Date: | 2024–04–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aer:wpaper:af465da1-0e92-4de1-af94-1ed6a537e047 |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Macroeconomics and Economic Growth-Fiscal & Monetary Policy Macroeconomics and Economic Growth-Financial Economics |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:41162 |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Macroeconomics and Economic Growth-Economic Growth Macroeconomics and Economic Growth-Economic Forecasting |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:41066 |
| By: | Sylla, Fanta Ndioba; Diagne, Abdoulaye |
| Abstract: | The Senegalese economy has recently been affected by the combination of Covid-19 shocks, geopolitical tensions in Ukraine, and climate change shocks, which are increasing from year to year. The resource required to deal with these shocks have led to a rapid deterioration of the public debt and budget deficit, which limits Senegal's chances of mobilizing resources to finance its development policies. The country, thus, finds itself in a position of having to find innovative and flexible funding mechanisms, likely not to worsen the public debt and budget deficit. One possible option is to secure the access to the reallocations of special drawing rights (SDRs) by the IMF through its Resiliense and Sustainability Trust (RST) instrument. However, these funds are subject to a host of conditionalities which make them difficult to access. A better knowledge of the possibilities for Senegal to access these RST resources is essential to prepare a solid funding application file to submit to the IMF; this file should demonstrate Senegals capacity to deal with the negative effects of the shocks that the national economy suffered in recent years as well as the capacity to put this economy back on a strong growth trajectory. |
| Date: | 2024–04–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aer:wpaper:8790eda4-c823-4b18-9d78-6e88759431e3 |
| By: | Ali, Abdurohman; Ageba, Gebrehiwot; Issa, Ali |
| Abstract: | Ethiopias economy has been hit by a series of internal and external shocks over the last few years. The combined effect of the Covid-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine war, domestic conflict and drought have put the country on a lower growth trajectory. Capital investment has plummeted. Budget deficit and Balance of Payment(BoP) deficit have widened and its external debt position has been on high risk of distress. The country has put austerity measures to meet its international debt obligations. Debt servicing is taking a toll on important social and economic sectors. This can be seen by the crowding out effect of debt servicing over other sectors. Ethiopias budget for servicing public debt in 2022/23 exceeds the combined budget for health, education, water and energy, agricultural development, trade and industry. The budget for servicing public debt in 2022/23 is three times larger than the previous year. As a result, the country is sliding backwards from the important economic and social gains of the previous two decades. Poverty rates are rising. Moreover, Ethiopias performance towards achieving the SDGs has been poor and ranked 144th among 166 countries. Given a multitude of external and domestic shocks Ethiopia has been going through, it would benefit from a new special drawing rights (SDR) allocation or rechanneling of excess SDR. However, given the sheer size of the current liquidity crunch and financing needs for its long term recovery, a new allocation based on the current IMF quota would only be a small fraction of the countrys needs. |
| Date: | 2024–04–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aer:wpaper:e9def303-7ef7-4803-aa0d-17d11b65b5c6 |
| By: | World Bank; WDC |
| Keywords: | Macroeconomics and Economic Growth-Economic Growth Social Protections and Labor-Social Protections & Assistance Social Protections and Labor-Employment and Unemployment Poverty Reduction-Poverty Reduction Strategies Poverty Reduction-Social Development & Poverty |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:41222 |
| By: | World Bank |
| Date: | 2023–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:39656 |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Governance-Governance and the Financial Sector Law and Development-Corruption & Anticorruption Law |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:40949 |
| By: | Geda, Alemayehu; Michael, Philliph Musyoka |
| Abstract: | Leconomie mondiale a connu un ralentissement de la croissance a partir de 2018 sous leffet negatif dun nouveau virus Corona. Les reponses politiques a court terme et le ralentissement mondial ont eu un impact majeur sur la croissance, les chaines de valeur, les revenus, le commerce, la pauvrete et la consommation. LAfrique subsaharienne a subi les effets modestes de la pandemie et est en train de se remettre du ralentissement. Cette reprise risque toutefois detre ralentie par la guerre entre la Russie et lUkraine. Au cours des annees qui ont precede la pandemie de Covid-19, lEthiopie et le Kenya, a linstar de tous les autres pays en developpement, ont pris du retard dans la realisation dun acces equitable a la nourriture pour tous. Aujourdhui, les effets cette pandemie se font toujours sentir, et la guerre entre la Russie et lUkraine a eloigne encore davantage lEthiopie et le Kenya de cet objectif dacces equitable a la nourriture pour tous. Dans les deux pays, la secheresse fait des ravages ; elle risque dexacerber la pauvrete et linsecurite alimentaire, reduisant ainsi les progres accomplis dans la realisation de lobjectif de developpement durable n 2 de Faim zero dici a 2030 . Les consequences de laugmentation de la pauvrete et de la reduction des moyens de subsistance sont manifestes dans laugmentation des niveaux dinsecurite alimentaire et dans la diminution de la qualite de lalimentation. Au Kenya, par exemple, le taux de pauvrete national a augmente de 13 points de pourcentage, passant de 28, 9 % au cours de la periode pre-Covid-19 (2019) a 41, 9 % en 2020, les pertes de revenus etant plus prononcees dans les zones urbaines que dans les zones rurales (Nafula et al., 2020). |
| Date: | 2024–04–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aer:wpaper:cfb744c0-7948-49d3-b96f-a16c0f8747b1 |
| By: | Chemnyongoi, Hellen; Omanyo, Daniel |
| Abstract: | Kenya, like most countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, has faced and coped with multiple shocks amid reduced fiscal headroom and increasing public debt vulnerabilities. Other than the COVID-19 global health crisis and the resulting economic effects, Kenya faced the desert locust invasion in 2020, prolonged droughts in 2021 and 2022, and the accompanying high cost of living exacerbated by the spill-over effects of the Russian-Ukraine war. These developments came when the economy had inadequate domestic resources to sustain the post-COVID-19 recovery momentum, and the mounting debt levels constrained the ability to raise new funding.Following a series of recurrent shocks, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) supported member countries substantially. This support took multiple forms, including the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF), the Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI) and Resilience and Sustainability Trust (RST), which provided emergency loans to low-income and middle-income countries facing urgent balance of payments needs. Most importantly, the IMF approved issuing $650 billion in special drawing rights (SDRs) in August 2021 to help member countries supplement their foreign exchange reserves and finance their balance of payments needs during the pandemic. However, data from IMF shows that about two-thirds (US$420 billion) of the allocation went to developed economies. Further, statistics show that developing economies have a greater dependence on SDRs than developed economies, with net SDR positions showing significant differentiation in utilization rates between the two. CEPAL and ECA (2022) noted that developing economies have an SDR utilization rate of 42.9%, while developed economies have a utilization rate of 5.9%. In addition, low voting rights in developing countries limit their participation in the decision-making process where voting power counts. As a result, the low-income countries that need more resources and SDR allocations to address their liquidity challenges are disadvantaged. |
| Date: | 2024–04–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aer:wpaper:1dce321c-f1cd-42e2-8316-03bc3a0fbeea |
| By: | Alan Fuchs Tarlovsky; Maria Fernanda Gonzalez Icaza |
| Keywords: | Gender-Gender and Development Gender-Gender and Economics Macroeconomics and Economic Growth-Fiscal Adjustment |
| Date: | 2023–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:39903 |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Health, Nutrition and Population-Health Economics & Finance |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:40874 |
| By: | AERC |
| Abstract: | The African Economic Research Consortium (AERC) is currently in the fourth year of its strategic period, 2020-2025, having completed over half of the five-year planning phase. The year 2023/24 also marks the 35th year since AERC was established in 1988. The Consortium has emerged as a premier institution for capacity-building in the advancement of research and graduate training in economics. It plays a pivotal role in informing economic policies in sub-Saharan Africa. The 2020-2025 strategy is anchored on three key themes of improving quality. This improved quality will ensure its own sustainability and working with regional and national think tanks will develop an effective platform for expanding influence. These three themes provide a new and coherent structure for how research, training, and policy engagement will address the capacity-building issues in the five-year planning cycle. Over the last four fiscal years of implementation of the AERC Strategic Plan 2020-2025, significant achievements have been realised towards improving quality, impactful research and graduate training. Several new collaborative research projects have been initiated, hence providing a range of timely research themes for early career researchers. In the training programme, the development of online teaching materials and virtual delivery of the Joint Facility for Electives (JFE) and the Shared Facility for Specialised and Electives (SFSE) through the AERC Learning Management System (LMS), complemented by the AERC e-Library, has not only enhanced cost-effectiveness, but also broadened reach and standardised the teaching of elective courses across the network universities. The AERC procured Class Zoom Technology to enhance instruction and improve learner engagement; additionally, the consortium acquired Copyleaks Plagiarism and AI Content Detector (including ChatGPT), and Zumedi examination proctoring facilities, for enhanced examination integrity. There has been a deliberate effort towards enhancing inclusivity by gender and regionally in both research and training programmes. Technical training on mainstreaming gender into research and several affirmative actions have been taken to enhance womens participation in both research and graduate training. However, these achievements have not been without challenges. A decline in funding continued to be experienced as current and potential funding institutions adjusted their funding commitments in response to the continuous impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukrain conflict. Additionally, due to political changes, some funding governments shifted their foreign policy and funding priorities. Furthermore, the funding environment continued to be one where funders preferred project funding to core funding. Thus, AERC will direct more efforts to go towards diversifying the resource base as well as designing all programmatic activities to make them increasingly attractive and cost effective in implementation. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aer:wpaper:8eeb4117-7fcb-468a-b368-03b291604900 |