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on Confederation of Independent States |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Agriculture-Agribusiness Agriculture-Agricultural Irrigation and Drainage Agriculture-Agriculture & Farming Systems Conflict and Development-Armed Conflict |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:41915 |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Conflict and Development-Armed Conflict Conflict and Development-Conflict and Fragile States Conflict and Development-International Affairs Governance-International Governmental Organizations Macroeconomics and Economic Growth-Economic Conditions and Volatility Macroeconomics and Economic Growth-Economic Growth |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:41777 |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Social Protections and Labor-Social Protections & Assistance Macroeconomics and Economic Growth-Economic Growth Conflict and Development-Conflict and Fragile States |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:41374 |
| By: | Cuong, Nguyen Manh; Mutai, Noah C.; Ibeh, Lawrence |
| Abstract: | The Ukraine conflict has profoundly affected global trade and international relations, particularly for Germany, a major player in Europe and the European Union. This study utilizes a Gravity Model analysis to explore Germany’s trade network and assess the impact of the conflict on its trade partnerships. |
| Date: | 2023–11–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:p672w_v1 |
| By: | Pepe, Jacopo Maria |
| Abstract: | Durch den Ukraine-Krieg und die Entscheidung, auf russisches Pipelinegas zu verzichten, wurde Flüssigerdgas (LNG) zu einem Hauptpfeiler der Energieversorgung Deutschlands und der EU. Die europäische Nachfrage hat die Globalisierung des LNG-Marktes beschleunigt und fördert zugleich Konzentration und neue Abhängigkeiten. Die USA und Katar sind die weltweit dominanten Akteure auf dem LNG-Markt. China spielt eine ambivalente Rolle, während Europa in hartem Wettbewerb mit asiatischen Abnehmern steht. Der Krieg hat die Fragmentierung der Weltordnung vorangetrieben und globale Governance im Energiesektor weiter erodieren lassen. LNG-Verträge spiegeln marktpolitische, aber auch geopolitische Präferenzen und neue Machtverhältnisse wider. Auch begünstigen sie Bilateralismus und Transaktionalismus zulasten multilateraler Kooperation. Mit der Entkopplung von Russland wurden Versorgungsrisiken nicht beseitigt, sondern verlagert. Die stärkere Abhängigkeit von den USA birgt Risiken für die EU und Deutschland: Größere Schwankungen bei Preis und Angebot drohen ebenso wie eine politische Instrumentalisierung der Abhängigkeit durch die Trump-Administration. Die neuen Marktbedingungen verdeutlichen, wie geschwächt die EU und Deutschland als energie- und klimapolitische Akteure sind. Sie müssen ihre Energiebeziehungen und ihre Diplomatie neu gestalten, um Tendenzen zum Bilateralismus, Asymmetrien bei Interessen und Präferenzen sowie Marktinterdependenzen zu begegnen. Die LNG-Partnerschaft mit den USA ist weiterhin nötig. Um geopolitischen Spannungen vorzubeugen und die Marktresilienz zu erhöhen, sind allerdings eine größtmögliche Diversifizierung der Lieferbeziehungen sowie multilaterale Ansätze wie eine Art LNG-Konzert der Mächte oder langfristig eine Wasserstoffallianz erforderlich. |
| Keywords: | Ukraine-Krieg, russisches Pipelinegas, Flüssigerdgas (LNG), EU, USA, Katar, China, multilaterale Kooperation, Transaktionalismus, Trump-Administration, Wasserstoffallianz, Geoökonomie |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpstu:313640 |
| By: | Omanyo, Daniel; Chemnyongoi, Hellen; Ngugi, Rose |
| Abstract: | Like most countries in sub-Saharan Africa, Kenya has faced and coped with multiple shocks amid reduced fiscal headroom and increasing public debt vulnerabilities. Other than the COVID-19 global health crisis and the resulting economic effects, Kenya faced the Desert Locust Invasion in 2020, prolonged droughts in 2021 and 2022, and the accompanying high cost of living exacerbated by the spillover effects of the Russian Ukraine war. These developments came when the economy had inadequate domestic resources to sustain the post-COVID-19 recovery momentum, and the mounting debt levels constrained the ability to raise new funding. Recent data indicate that Kenya is rated as a medium performer in terms of Debt Carrying Capacity (DCC) with a high risk of debt distress (National Treasury and Economic Planning, 2023a). The high risk of debt was primarily because of the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic contributing to a slowdown of economic growth. It is worsened by high inflation and supply chain disruptions due to the multiple and recurrent shocks the economy faces. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) supported member countries substantially. This support took multiple forms, including the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) and the Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI), which provide emergency loans to low-income and middle-income countries facing urgent balance of payments needs. In response to the pandemic, the IMF increased the access limits for RCF and RFI loans to 100% of a members quota and simplified the application process. Many countries used these facilities to finance their urgent health and social spending needs and address the pandemics economic impact. The IMF also reviewed the conditionalities on various facilities, such as the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) and the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA), to provide more flexibility and support to member countries during the pandemic. These efforts allowed countries to use funds under the ECF and SBA to finance their COVID-19-related health and social spending needs (IMF, 2023; ECA & ECLAC, 2022). |
| Date: | 2024–05–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aer:wpaper:1e72ebb1-cf34-460d-ab35-6c791d55be62 |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Gender-Gender and Development Gender-Gender and Energy |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:41832 |
| By: | Quartey, Peter; Atta-Ankomah, Richmond; Afful-Mensah, Gloria |
| Abstract: | En 2022, leconomie ghaneenne a enregistre les pires performances des trois dernieres decennies, comme en temoignent les niveaux sans precedent des desequilibres macroeconomiques. Bien quil y ait eu des signes de derapage fiscal vers la fin de 2019, les faiblesses structurelles du domaine fiscal du pays ont ete exposees et affaiblies par la triple crise - la pandemie de covid-19, la guerre Russie Ukraine et les chocs climatiques croissants. En outre, les niveaux insoutenables de la dette publique, en particulier laugmentation de la dette exterieure, ont conduit a une augmentation constante du montant des recettes publiques consacrees au paiement des dettes. Le fait de consacrer une part croissante des recettes de leconomie au paiement de la dette a entraine une diminution de la part des investissements publics dans les infrastructures et les services sociaux (voir les figures 1 et 2). Cette situation semble avoir incite le gouvernement a emprunter davantage. En mai 2023, le FMI a classe le pays dans la categorie des pays en situation de surendettement. |
| Date: | 2024–05–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aer:wpaper:68485d94-e4a5-4394-b923-839e9aa865a7 |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Education-Education Indicators and Statistics Education-Educational Policy and Planning Governance-International Governmental Organizations |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:41880 |
| By: | Günther G. Schulze; Nikita Zakharov (Department of International Economic Policy, University of Freiburg) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we unveil targeted repression against journalists as an elaborate strategy used by modern autocrats to mitigate the risk of mass protests during autocratic electionsâa common threat to their rule. Repression is deployed to discipline the media before elections to secure favorable media coverage of the incumbent, thereby discourage public dissent. In contrast, the reigns are loosened during off-election periods to allow the mediaâs credibility to be rebuilt. This dynamic creates distinct electoral cycles of media repression in autocracies. Our empirical study establishes these cycles using a unique granular dataset on the harassment of journalists in Putin's Russia and the predetermined, staggered timing of local elections. We then demonstrate the disciplinary effects on reporting about incumbents using a novel media coverage index. Finally, employing survey data, we show that media repression is extremely effective when it comes to dwarfing the threat of anti-government protests. |
| Keywords: | Autocracy, elections, media repression, political cycles, protest. |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fre:wpaper:52 |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Macroeconomics and Economic Growth-Economic Growth Macroeconomics and Economic Growth-Inflation Poverty Reduction-Poverty Monitoring & Analysis Macroeconomics and Economic Growth-Fiscal and Monetary Policy Public Sector Development-Macro-Fiscal Policy Poverty Reduction-Poverty Assessment Poverty Reduction-Poverty Diagnostics Poverty Reduction-Poverty Reduction Strategies |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:41429 |
| By: | Sylla, Fanta Ndioba; Diagne, Abdoulaye |
| Abstract: | The Senegalese economy has recently been hit by a combination of multiple shocks, after a period of sustained growth of 6% on average for six years (2014-2019). In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic led to the slowdown or even cessation of activities in several sectors, leading to a decline of more than three points in real GDP growth. Economic growth fell from 5.3% in 2019 to 1.5% in 2020 (Direction de la Prevision et des Etudes Economiques [DPEE], 2020, 2021). Geopolitical tensions in Ukraine have hard hit the Senegalese economy in 2022. This combination of external shocks has amplified the effects of climatic shocks which have worsened over the last decade. After a major shock affecting the economy, it is imperative for the Senegalese authorities to undertake reforms in the policies in force, in order to put the economy back on a sustained growth trajectory. These new policies require substantial funding, while the resource needs for dealing with the COVID-19 crisis in the short term have already caused high strain on public finances. After many efforts to bring down the budget deficit to 3.9% in 2019, this deficit rose again to 6.4% in 2020 (DPEE, 2020, 2021). This public deficit is mainly financed by borrowing, which resulted in a rapid increase in debt, rising from 52.5% in 2019 to 67.4% of GDP in 2020. These high levels of debt and public deficit are likely to reduce the chances of mobilizing resources to finance the economic recovery, even in a context of suspension of the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) convergence pact. Senegal thus finds itself in the situation of having to find innovative and flexible instruments of financing that would not worsen the public deficit and debt. |
| Date: | 2024–05–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aer:wpaper:d5066f52-fbbe-4187-8885-d258d9f8b3b4 |
| By: | Sylla, Fanta Ndioba; Diagne, Abdoulaye |
| Abstract: | Leconomie senegalaise a ete recemment touchee par les chocs combines de la Covid-19, des tensions geopolitiques en Ukraine, sans oublier les chocs lies au changement climatique qui samplifient dannee en annee. Les ressources necessaires pour faire face a ces chocs ont conduit a une aggravation rapide de la dette publique et du deficit budgetaire, ce qui limite les possibilites pour le Senegal de mobiliser des ressources pour financer ses politiques de developpement. Le pays se trouve donc dans une situation ou il doit trouver des mecanismes de financement innovants et flexibles, susceptibles de ne pas aggraver la dette publique et le deficit budgetaire. Une option possible est de securiser lacces aux reallocations de droits de tirage speciaux (DTS) par le FMI a travers son instrument de fiducie pour la resilience et la durabilite (RST). Cependant, ces fonds sont soumis a une serie de conditionnalites qui les rendent difficiles dacces. Une meilleure connaissance des possibilites dacces du Senegal a ces ressources du RST est imperative pour preparer un dossier de demande de financement solide a soumettre au FMI ; ce dossier devra demontrer la capacite du Senegal a faire face aux effets negatifs des chocs que leconomie nationale a subis ces dernieres annees ainsi que la capacite a remettre cette economie sur une trajectoire de croissance forte. |
| Date: | 2024–05–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aer:wpaper:01e320f0-3782-4fc7-96f3-f8a07106791a |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Environment-Natural Resources Management Environment-Climate Change and Environment Environment-Environmental Protection Environment-Environmental Management Environment-Pollution Management & Control |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:41632 |
| By: | Wegener, Christoph; Basse, Tobias; Maiani, Stefano; Nguyen, Tam Huu |
| Abstract: | This paper employs predictive regressions to explore the predictability of sovereign Credit Default Swap (CDS) spread dynamics of relevant oil-producing countries. By incorporating oil prices and additional control variables, we predict the rate of CDS spread changes for Brazil, the UK, Malaysia, Norway, Qatar, Russia, Saudi Arabia, the US, and Venezuela. Our findings reveal that (i) the empirical coefficients of determination (R 2 ) indicate low in-sample predictability for our entire period of analysis (2010-2024), the R 2 increases markedly when dividing the analysis period into more relevant sub-samples (2010-2016 and 2016-2024); (ii) oil prices are not significant predictors for the full period but become significant in many regressions within sub-samples; (iii) for countries where oil prices are significant in both sub-samples, the coefficient sign changes from negative to positive, suggesting that in more recent years, rising (falling) oil prices signal increasing (decreasing) geopolitical risk, positively (negatively) influencing CDS spreads. |
| Keywords: | oil prices, fiscal stability, predictive regressions |
| JEL: | G17 H63 C58 Q43 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:hwuaef:313644 |
| By: | Berlemann, Michael; Hinze, Jörg |
| Abstract: | Die deutsche Wirtschaft entwickelte sich im Winterhalbjahr 2024/25 weiterhin schwach, da sich im unsicheren Vorfeld der Neuwahlen im Februar 2025 die privaten Verbraucher und Unternehmen weiter zurückhielten, zudem gingen die Exporte weiter zurück. Bei der Neuwahl erhielt die Union die Mehrheit; sie hat umfassende Wirtschaftsreformen - wie Steuerentlastungen, niedrigere Energiekosten, Bürokratieabbau, Infrastrukturinvestitionen und effizienterer Staat - angekündigt. Allerdings dürften in der wahrscheinlichen Koalition mit der SPD vorgenannte Maßnahmen angesichts teils sehr unterschiedlicher wirtschaftspolitischer Vorstellungen nicht vollumfänglich durchgesetzt werden können. Erst nach Vorliegen der Koalitionsvereinbarungen dürfte die Zurückhaltung bei privaten Verbrauchern und insbesondere Investoren schwinden. Zu den geopolitischen Unsicherheiten kommt die restriktivere Handelspolitik der neuen US-Administration hinzu; auch auf deutsche Exporte in die USA drohen Zölle. Das alles dämpft die für den weiteren Verlauf dieses Jahres erwartete Wiederbelebung der Wirtschaft. Das HWWI rechnet deshalb für 2025 im Jahresdurchschnitt, auch wegen des negativen Überhangs aus dem Jahr 2024, nur noch mit einer Zunahme des realen Bruttoinlandsprodukts von 1/4 % (zuvor 1/2 %). Unter der Annahme, dass sich die künftige Koalition auf wichtige wirtschaftliche Reformen einigen kann und unter Berücksichtigung zu erwartender Nachholeffekte sowie einer weiteren Lockerung der Geldpolitik wird für 2026 weiterhin mit einem Wirtschaftswachstum von 1 1/2 % gerechnet. Die Inflationsrate für die Verbraucherpreise hat sich mittlerweile nahe der Stabilitätsmarke von 2 % eingependelt. Die deutlich gestiegenen Arbeitskosten halten die sogenannte Kernrate jedoch noch höher, zuletzt 2, 6 %. Im Laufe dieses Jahres dürfte aber mit moderateren Lohnabschlüssen der Inflationsdruck weiter nachlassen. Dann dürfte sich die Inflationsrate bei 2 % stabilisieren. Nicht nur wegen der geopolitischen Unsicherheiten - jüngst durch die Spannungen zwischen USA, Ukraine und Europa verschärft - bleiben die Risiken für diese Prognose hoch. Die Koalitionsverhandlungen stehen noch an und je weniger durchgreifende Maßnahmen zur Verbesserung der Standortbedingungen sie beinhalten, desto beschränkter sind die Wachstumschancen. Die Vorabklärung der Finanzierungsfragen für Verteidigung und Infrastruktur in den Sondierungsgesprächen muss noch mit 2/3-Mehrheit durch den Bundestag; dann kann dies wie ein Konjunkturprogramm wirken. |
| Abstract: | The German economy continued to develop weakly in the winter half of 2024/25, as private consumers and companies continued to hold back in the uncertain run-up to the new elections in February 2025, and exports continued to decline. In the new election, the Union received the majority; it has announced comprehensive economic reforms - such as tax relief, lower energy costs, reduction of bureaucracy, infrastructure investments and a more efficient state. However, in the likely coalition with the SPD, the aforementioned measures are unlikely to be fully implemented in view of the sometimes very different economic policy ideas. Only after the coalition agreements are available is the reluctance of private consumers and especially investors likely to dwindle. In addition to the geopolitical uncertainties, there is the more restrictive trade policy of the new US administration; German exports to the USA are also threatened with tariffs. All this dampens the economic revival expected for the rest of this year. The Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI) therefore expects an annual average increase in real gross domestic product of only 1/4% (previously 1/2%) for 2025, partly because of the negative overhang from 2024. Assuming that the future coalition can agree on important economic reforms and taking into account expected catch-up effects and a further easing of monetary policy, economic growth of 1 1/2% is still expected for 2026. The inflation rate for consumer prices has now settled close to the stability mark of 2%. However, the significant increase in labor costs keeps the so-called core rate even higher, most recently 2.6%. In the course of this year, however, inflationary pressures are likely to ease further with more moderate wage agreements. Then the inflation rate should stabilize at 2%. It is not only because of the geopolitical uncertainties - recently exacerbated by the tensions between the USA, Ukraine and Europe - that the risks to this forecast remain high. The coalition negotiations are still pending, and the fewer drastic measures to improve the location conditions they contain, the more limited the growth opportunities. The preliminary clarification of the financing issues for defense and infrastructure in the exploratory talks still has to be passed by the Bundestag with a 2/3 majority; then this can act like an economic stimulus program. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:hwwifo:313017 |
| By: | Quartey, Peter; Atta-Ankomah, Richmond; Afful-Mensah, Gloria A |
| Abstract: | On 2 August 2021, the International Monetary Fund announced the largest (in its history) allocation of Special Drawing Rights(SDRs) worth US$650 billion (550 billion), which was approved with effect from 23 August 2021. A large proportion of the total allocation went to developed economies because they hold much higher quotas, although the levels of SDR utilisation by these countries have been historically very low, compared to developing countries like Ghana. The important question is: in what ways could Ghana benefit from SDRs beyond its allocation? How can the unused SDRs allocations be rechannelled to support developing countries' public finances and help their recovery from recurrent global multiple shocks? To help address these questions, this case study on Ghana sought to: (1) Comprehensively explore the state of Ghana's public sector finance and how it has been affected by the triple crisis (COVID-19 pandemic, rising external debts, and Russia-Ukraine war); (2) Explore the evolution of Ghana's external balance position and its vulnerabilities in the context of local constraints and external shocks; and (3) Explore the opportunities for using SDR facilities to support public financial management, improve external balance position, and as a vehicle to promote stable economic growth and development in Ghana. The study points to several structural constraints, both local and external, to prudent fiscal management, and underscores the need for reforming SDR regime to provide an alternative and sustainable financing framework for Ghana and similar developing countries. Several recommendations are also provided to address the challenges of public financial management, including low domestic revenue mobilisation and inefficiencies in public spending. |
| Date: | 2024–04–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aer:wpaper:58fc69f9-694a-41f3-96c9-b37308a7b88a |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Macroeconomics and Economic Growth-Economic Growth Macroeconomics and Economic Growth-Inflation Agriculture-Food Security |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:41955 |
| By: | Niftiyev, Ibrahim; Bagirzadeh, Elshan |
| Abstract: | The energy sector is critical to economic growth and development, and the everchanging world order requires a new review of past and current trends in this area. This paper focuses on the members of the Organization of Turkic States (OTS) that share a common history, similar cultural and political perspectives, and similar national interests. While some OTS countries are net exporters of electricity energy (e.g., Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan), others are net importers of it (e.g., Türkiye, and Hungary), and cooperation among member and observer states is growing rapidly. This paper documents the similarities and differences in energy sector variability among OTS members using a principal component analysis (PCA) of data between 1991 and 2021. Our study shows that all OTS countries are similar in terms of primary energy consumption per capita, but in terms of electricity consumption and renewable electricity per capita, Hungary and Kyrgyzstan differ from the rest of the sample. Additionally, carbon intensity varies to the same extent in Hungary, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, and Türkiye. Finally, Hungary and Kyrgyzstan have not changed their fossil fuel-based electricity generation, while Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan show the same positive trend in electricity energy trade. The results of this study provide an integrated and methodological overview of the energy sector of the OTS countries and shed light on possible future cooperation between the member and observer countries. |
| Keywords: | Dimension Reduction, Energy Sector, Energy Economics, Energy Transition, Organization of Turkic States (OTS), Principal Component Analysis (PCA) |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esconf:313417 |
| By: | Henri-Louis Vedie |
| Abstract: | Depuis 1956, l’économie égyptienne est en crise. Durant la période entre 1956 et 2024, elle a connu douze dévaluations et huit crises majeures de sa balance des paiements. Avec un déficit récurrent de sa balance courante, le pays est exposé au plus grand des risques : le risque souverain. Ce qui est une première faiblesse. Mais ce pays, qui a toujours réussi à s’épargner ce risque, témoigne aussi de certaines forces, ce qui constitue sa première force. De ce constat est née l’idée de consacrer cette étude à ces forces et faiblesses, récurrentes depuis 1956. La première partie de cette étude couvre la période 1956-2024. Elle met en évidence trois faiblesses et trois forces récurrentes. Côté faiblesses, sont privilégiées par cette étude tout d’abord sa démographie. Avec un taux de croissance annuel de la population égyptienne de 1, 6 %, cette surpopulation est une véritable bombe à retardement, pour les décennies à venir. Ensuite, une balance courante structurellement déficitaire, ce qui pérennise le risque souverain. Enfin, une pauvreté qui s’installe et qui progresse. Côté atouts, au nombre de trois, également : ceux liés à sa position stratégique, géographique ; celui d’ordre financier, avec trois rentes qui contribuent à 12, 4 % du PIB en 2023 (Diaspora, tourisme, Canal de Suez) ; celui d’un soutien constant des institutions monétaires internationales, qui s’est construit avec le temps, de l’Occident et des pays du Golfe. La deuxième partie est consacrée à la dernière crise, essentiellement due à des chocs extérieurs : Covid-19, invasion de l’Ukraine par la Russie, guerre à Gaza et au Liban. Ces chocs extérieurs vont se traduire, à partir de 2021, par une fragilisation de certainesforcesdel’économieégyptienne(recettes touristiques et recettes du canal de Suez revues à la baisse par exemple ; et par l’amplification de certaines de ses faiblesses, comme un risque de change conforté, par une balance courante qui continue de se dégrader, et un taux de pauvreté qui progresse. |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:rpaeco:pp05_25 |
| By: | World Bank |
| Keywords: | Law and Development-Tax Law Macroeconomics and Economic Growth-Taxation & Subsidies Governance-E-Government Macroeconomics and Economic Growth-Fiscal & Monetary Policy |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:41827 |
| By: | World Bank; The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development |
| Keywords: | Gender-Gender and Development Gender-Gender and Economic Policy Gender-Gender and Governance Gender-Gender and Social Development |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:41663 |
| By: | Ali, Abdurohman; Ageba, Gebrehiwot; Issa, Ali |
| Abstract: | Leconomie ethiopienne a ete frappee par un ensemble de chocs internes et externes au cours des dernieres annees. Leffet combine de la pandemie de Covid-19, de la guerre entre la Russie et lUkraine, des conflits internes et de la secheresse a place le pays sur une trajectoire de croissance plus faible. Les investissements en capital ont chute. Le deficit budgetaire et le deficit de la balance des paiements se sont creuses et la position de la dette exterieure presente un risque eleve de detresse. Le pays a mis en place des mesures dausterite pour respecter ses obligations en matiere de dette internationale. Le paiement des dettes pese sur dimportants secteurs sociaux et economiques. Leffet deviction du paiement de la dette sur dautres secteurs en est la preuve. Le budget de lEthiopie pour le paiement de la dette publique en 2022/23 depasse le budget combine de la sante, de leducation, de leau et de lenergie, du developpement agricole, du commerce et de lindustrie. Le budget consacre au paiement de la dette publique en 2022/23 est trois fois superieur a celui de lannee precedente. En consequence, le pays recule par rapport aux importants progres economiques et sociaux des deux dernieres decennies. Les taux de pauvrete augmentent. En outre, les resultats de lEthiopie en matiere de realisation des ODD ont ete mediocres et le pays sest classe 144e sur 166 pays. Compte tenu de la multitude de chocs externes et internes quelle a subis, lEthiopie beneficierait dune nouvelle allocation de droits de tirage speciaux (DTS) ou dun reacheminement des DTS excedentaires. Toutefois, compte tenu de lampleur de la crise de liquidite actuelle et des besoins de financement pour son redressement a long terme, une nouvelle allocation basee sur la quote-part actuelle du FMI ne representerait quune petite fraction des besoins du pays. |
| Date: | 2024–05–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aer:wpaper:5939f0e3-e78f-49a6-9eee-3624d7f95542 |