nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2025–03–17
twenty-two papers chosen by
Alexander Harin


  1. Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine and Firm Performance in Central Asia : The Role of Export Links and Digital Gains By Dalvit, Nicolo; Iootty De Paiva Dias, Mariana; Melecky, Martin; Srinivasan, Nithya
  2. Impact of the Russian Invasion on Ukrainian Farmers’ Productivity, Rural Welfare, and Food Security By Deininger, Klaus W.; Ali, Daniel Ayalew; Fang, Ming
  3. Land and Mortgage Markets in Ukraine : Pre-War Performance, War Effects, and Implications for Recovery By Deininger, Klaus W.; Ali, Daniel Ayalew
  4. Energy price shocks and short-time reactions of firms: The case of the german energy crisis in 2022 By Hornbach, Jens; Rammer, Christian
  5. Attempting to set the record straight. How should the family name of Ukraine’s President be spelled? By Teixeira da Silva, Jaime A.
  6. Charting the Uncharted: The (Un)Intended Consequences of Oil Sanctions and Dark Shipping By Jesús Fernández-Villaverde; Yiliang Li; Le Xu; Francesco Zanetti
  7. The hour of trial for Europe has come (the vision from Russia). By Nelozhin, Sergei
  8. An Overview of Strategic Interventions for Agriculture, Climate Change, and Food Security Proposed by the National Science and Technology Commission at the 9th Biennial Conference on Science and Technology By R.M.R, Ahammed; Perera, Rasitha Thilini Suranjana; K.G.D, Piyumali; Kaluarachchi, K.D. K. G; D, Silva S. K. B.; Munagamage, Thilini; P, Piyankarage C. S.; Shahmy, Seyed; Karunaratne, Veranja
  9. Diversifying Transport and Transit Routes in Central Asia: Key Insights By Rasa, Mohammad Mirwais; Haq, Inamul
  10. Is the Global Economy Deglobalizing ? And If So, Why? And What Is Next? By Goldberg, Pinelopi Koujianou; Reed, Tristan
  11. Trade as an Engine of Growth : Sputtering but Fixable By Ohnsorge, Franziska Lieselotte; Quaglietti, Lucia
  12. Global Competition on the Waiver of IP Rights of COVID-19 Vaccines - Focusing on the Theory of Complex Geopolitics By Kim, Dongkyu
  13. The potentially misleading nature of the use of stock photos in news reporting: A case in 2022 of the Russo-Ukrainian War By Teixeira da Silva, Jaime A.
  14. On the Similarity of Fertility across European National Borders By Ermisch, John
  15. Evaluation of Educational Loss in Europe and Central Asia By Patrinos, Harry Anthony; Jakubowski, Maciej Jan; Gajderowicz, Tomasz Janusz
  16. Does the financialization of agricultural commodities impact food security? An empirical investigation By Manogna R. L.; Nishil Kulkarni
  17. Rice price inflation dynamics in the Philippines By Antonio, Ronald Jeremy; Valera, Harold Glenn; Mishra, Ashok; Pede, Valerien; Yamano, Takashi; Vieira, Bernardo Oliva
  18. Twin Deficits and Fiscal Spillovers in the European Periphery (Candidate Countries to EU Accession): A Keynesian Perspective By Vîntu, Denis
  19. The Impact of the Transition and EU Membership on the Returns to Schooling in Europe By Patrinos, Harry Anthony; Rivera-Olvera, Angelica
  20. Can Vaccination Incentives Backfire? Experimental Evidence That Offering Cash Incentives Can Reduce Vaccination Intentions in Some Contexts By Seitz, William Hutchins; Yamada, Eiji; Shimizutani, Satoshi
  21. Who Suffers the Most from the Cost-of-Living Crisis ? By Lokshin, Michael M.; Sajaia, Zurab; Torre, Ivan
  22. Optimal Salaries of Researchers with Motivational Emergence By Eldar Knar

  1. By: Dalvit, Nicolo; Iootty De Paiva Dias, Mariana; Melecky, Martin; Srinivasan, Nithya
    Abstract: This paper studies the effect of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on the performance of firms in Central Asia. It uses unique data from the Business Pulse Survey run by the World Bank in the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, which tracks the sales and employment—along with other main characteristics—of about 1, 200 to 1, 800 firms in a panel structure. The survey contains two waves before and one wave after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Using the difference-in-differences methodology in a regression setup, the analysis finds that Central Asian firms with pre-invasion trade links to Russia suffered greater drops in sales and employment after the invasion—even though exporters to Russia may have experienced, on average, higher sales during the studied period. Considering the pre-invasion digitization of firms, the findings show that digitization helped firms increase their average employment during the studied period. However, the analysis does not find any significant mitigating effect of digitalization associated with the impact of the invasion.
    Date: 2023–08–29
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10557
  2. By: Deininger, Klaus W.; Ali, Daniel Ayalew; Fang, Ming
    Abstract: Data from 2, 251 small and medium-size farms for 2021 and 2022 show that area reductions in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine remained limited. However, worsening terms of trade reduced farm profitability, implying that 46 percent of farms had a negative cash flow and 54 percent (67 percent in the 50-120 hectare group) were credit constrained in 2022, implying that longer term effects may be more adverse. Total factor productivity varies significantly across size groups but is not significantly different between formal and informal farms in the same size group. This suggests that limited transferability of land use rights that are disproportionately used by smaller farms may be one reason for low productivity. Improving transferability of land, digital access to markets, and mortgage lending could thus trigger investment and growth in higher value products by small and medium-size farms to solidify Ukraine’s comparative advantage in agriculture and improve rural living conditions in the context of reconstruction.
    Date: 2023–05–31
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10464
  3. By: Deininger, Klaus W.; Ali, Daniel Ayalew
    Abstract: Almost throughout Ukraine’s independent history, agricultural land sales were prohibited. Measures to allow them and make land governance more transparent in 2020/21 were expected to improve equity, investment, credit access, and decentralization. This paper draws on administrative data and satellite imagery to describe land market performance before and after the Russian invasion, assess changes in land use for transacted parcels, and analyze determinants of land prices. Agricultural land market volume soon exceeded that of residential land and continued at a reduced level and with prices some 15–20 percent lower even after the invasion, with little sign of speculative land acquisition. Mortgage market activity and credit access remained below expectations. The paper discusses reasons and options for addressing them in a way that also factors in the needs of post-war reconstruction.
    Date: 2023–03–28
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10385
  4. By: Hornbach, Jens; Rammer, Christian
    Abstract: After the beginning of the war in Ukraine, energy prices in Germany increased drastically. The paper analyses responses of German firms to this energy price shock. A variety of measures and reactions at the firm-level are explored, such as substituting machinery and equipment by less energy consuming alternatives, a change of energy suppliers, the use of digital technologies to reduce energy consumption, the introduction of energy management systems, relocation or closure of energy intensive activities, or replacing fossil by other energy sources. The analysis is based on data from the German part of the Community Innovation Survey (CIS). The econometric results show that a high affectedness by the energy price shock in 2022 triggers the substitution of machinery and equipment by more energy efficient alternatives. This measure in turn is correlated to a decrease of electricity consumption and oil use, and it promotes the substitution of fossil energy sources by renewables. The results also show that high energy costs can lead to stopping or relocating energy-intensive activities. Furthermore, firms with high energy intensity show negative sales growth from 2022 to 2023.
    Keywords: Energy price shock, green energy firm behaviour, probit and quantile regressions
    JEL: C21 C25 L25 Q21 Q41
    Date: 2024
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:312193
  5. By: Teixeira da Silva, Jaime A.
    Abstract: Ukraine’s President, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, became a globally recognized persona since 2019, even more so now as a result of the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war. Despite that fame and recognition, it is not uncommon to observe some variations in the spelling of the President’s family name, Zelenskyy, either as Zelenskyi, Zelenskiy, Zelensky, or Zelenski, even in mainstream English media and/or English academic literature. The apparent reason for this variation is the lack of Latinization of the name from the Ukrainian form and/or the recognition of the double-consonant “yy” in English. As equally as the public expects unbiased and balanced news – an unlikely phenomenon during a war – so too should news outlets pay attention to small, but important details, such as the accurate spelling of publicly highly visible personalities, such as President Zelenskyy. This paper serves to provide a culturally accurate version of the representation of the family name of the current President of Ukraine, with the hope that it may be used in a more standardized manner in news and in academic literature.
    Date: 2023–06–11
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:xug4m_v1
  6. By: Jesús Fernández-Villaverde; Yiliang Li; Le Xu; Francesco Zanetti
    Abstract: We examine the rise of dark shipping – oil tankers disabling AIS transceivers to evade detection – amid Western sanctions on Iran, Syria, North Korea, Venezuela, and Russia. Using a machine learning-based ship clustering model, we track dark-shipped crude oil trade flows worldwide and detect unauthorized ship-to-ship transfers. From 2017 to 2023, dark ships transported an estimated 7.8 million metric tons of crude oil monthly – 43% of global seaborne crude exports – with China absorbing 15%. These sanctioned flows offset recorded declines in global oil exports but create distinct economic shifts. The U.S., a net oil exporter, faces lower oil prices but benefits from cheaper Chinese imports, driving deflationary growth. The EU, a net importer, contends with rising energy costs yet gains from Chinese demand, fueling inflationary expansion. China, leveraging discounted oil, boosts industrial output, propagating global economic shocks. Our findings expose dark shipping’s central role in reshaping oil markets and macroeconomic dynamics.
    Keywords: dark shipping, oil sanction, satellite data, clustering analysis, LP
    JEL: C32 C38 E32 Q43 R40
    Date: 2025
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11684
  7. By: Nelozhin, Sergei
    Abstract: The short article is devoted to the burning issue of exclusive danger hanging over Europe. A way out of the situation is achievable only in the case of unprecedented efforts on the part of the EU leadership and the national governments in the Conti-nent, supplemented by the most active participation of the European public. Then the path to required overall social progress will be feasible.
    Keywords: Europe, military confrontation, modernizing weapons, inclusive world economic order, sustainable development
    JEL: A12 P00
    Date: 2025–02–18
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:123702
  8. By: R.M.R, Ahammed; Perera, Rasitha Thilini Suranjana; K.G.D, Piyumali; Kaluarachchi, K.D. K. G; D, Silva S. K. B.; Munagamage, Thilini; P, Piyankarage C. S.; Shahmy, Seyed (National Science and Technology Commission); Karunaratne, Veranja
    Abstract: Agriculture in Sri Lanka occupies 46% of the land and consumes over 80% of the country's freshwater resources. Rice farming is the most prominent agricultural practice, with 1.8 million families engaged in it. The annual tea production contributes to 285, 877 metric tons of export volume, which accounts for nearly 38% of the total agricultural products, with a target of $2, 044 million in income by 2025. Climate change and natural resources significantly impact agriculture, with irregular rainfall patterns, temperature variation, and drought causing substantial challenges as a whole. The proposed interventions at BICOST IX 2023 under the food crops, plantation, and export crops sectors include enhancing certified seed production, promoting value-added products, and developing training and awareness programs for low-carbon lifestyles with the view of addressing them all in all. Also, food security is another area that has negative consequences linked to climate change impacts in the sector, with nearly 26% of the population expected to be affected by food security by 2050. The COVID-19 pandemic consequences and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine might worsen the situation further. From a Sri Lankan perspective, the implications of proposed strategic interventions could help sustain a healthy national economy while committing to the universal goals of SDGs 1, 2, and 13, the Paris Accords, and the Milan Urban Food Policy Fund. However, more concerns can be put forward to minimise or eliminate diseases in the agriculture sector due to climate change and minimise food waste or loss, which is lacking in the report.
    Date: 2023–10–26
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:64grs_v1
  9. By: Rasa, Mohammad Mirwais; Haq, Inamul
    Abstract: Diversification of transport and trade routes has been the key element of the CAREC Program since its inception in 2001. For this purpose, the concept of six CAREC corridors has been developed.1 The purpose of these corridors is to provide connectivity within and outside the CAREC region in various directions and to expand the economies’ access to new markets. The demand for such diversification in CAREC economies has been greatly amplified by ecent external shocks, which have affected the traditional CAREC transport and transit routes crossing Russian territory. The CAREC Corridor 2, which largely coincides with what is called the Middle Corridor, provides the only feasible alternative to these traditional routes. For this reason, this corridor has attracted a lot of attention from the CAREC governments and development partners.
    Keywords: Transit Routes, Central Asia, Afghanistan, Trade Logistics
    JEL: F1 F15 F18
    Date: 2023–09–09
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:123542
  10. By: Goldberg, Pinelopi Koujianou; Reed, Tristan
    Abstract: Data on global trade as well as capital and labor flows indicate a slowdown, but not reversal, of globalization post the 2008–09 financial crisis. Yet profound changes in the policy environment and public sentiment in the largest economies over the past five years suggest the beginning of a new era. Increasing anxiety about the labor market effects of import competition from low-wage countries, especially China, laid the groundwork, but was not the catalyst for the reversal in attitudes towards globalization. Similarly, the COVID pandemic provided novel arguments against free trade based on global supply chain resilience, but neither the pandemic nor short run policy response had enduring effects on trade flows. Global trade was remarkably resilient during the pandemic and that supply shortages would likely have been more severe in the absence of international trade. After a temporary decline in 2020, global trade in goods and services increased sharply in 2021. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine raised new concerns about national security and the exposure of supply chains to geopolitical risk. This was followed by demands to diversify away from “non-friendly” countries and to the employment of trade policy, export restrictions in particular, to halt China’s technological development. The future of globalization is highly uncertain at this point, but these new policies will likely slow global growth, innovation, and poverty reduction even if they benefit certain industries in certain countries. Regarding resilience, the main goal of recent trade policy changes, measures of trade volatility or concentration can be helpful, but resilience will be elusive as long as we lack benchmarks against which policy performance can be measured.
    Date: 2023–04–05
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10392
  11. By: Ohnsorge, Franziska Lieselotte; Quaglietti, Lucia
    Abstract: International trade has been an important engine of output and productivity growth historically. But since the global financial crisis, world trade growth has slowed, reflecting cyclical and structural forces. The COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have further disrupted commodity markets, global supply chains and the trade that accompanies them. A removal of impediments that raise trade costs could reinvigorate world trade. Trade costs, on average, roughly double the cost of internationally traded goods relative to domestically sold goods. Tariffs amount to only one-twentieth of average trade costs; the bulk are incurred in shipping and logistics, and trade procedures and processes at and behind the border. Despite a decline since 1995, trade costs remain about one-half higher in EMDEs than in advanced economies; about two-fifths of this gap appears to be due to higher shipping and logistics costs and a further two-fifths due to trade policy. A comprehensive reform package to lower trade costs could yield large dividends. It is estimated that among the worst-performing EMDEs, a hypothetical reform package to improve logistics and maritime connectivity to the standards of the best-performing EMDEs would halve trade costs.
    Date: 2023–03–10
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10356
  12. By: Kim, Dongkyu
    Abstract: This article delves into the international competition for COVID-19 vaccine patents, focusing on the tensions between policies and systems, cyber diplomacy for solidarity, and security discourse. These aspects are examined through the lens of the Complex Geopolitics theory, which encompasses technological changes. Firstly, concerning security discourse, apprehensions arose regarding the potential transfer of vaccine technology from holders and companies, particularly from the United States, to Russia and China. The concept of Friction between Policies and Systems pertains to the distribution and accessibility policies for vaccines. Specifically, the discourse on compulsory licensing under TRIPs Article 31 and Article 5A of the Paris Agreement has led to a division between central and peripheral countries. In addition to compulsory licensing, France, Russia, China, and other third countries advocated for a straightforward waiver of patent rights. However, Germany and Italy argued that such a waiver would not effectively prevent global pandemics. Lastly, Diplomacy for Solidarity reveals that although the COVID-19 vaccine deliberations prompted diplomatic maneuvers by major powers to secure vaccine alliances, instances of solidarity diplomacy regarding vaccine patents are rare. Notwithstanding, notable examples include the R&D investments between the Austrian and Danish heads of government, as well as the Inclusive Vaccine Alliance comprising Italy, Germany, France, and the Netherlands. Regrettably, these efforts seem more focused on equitable vaccine access rather than patent waiver and/or compulsory licensing. Thus, we confront an imperative time to delve deeper into the discussion of the "third way" advocated by the WTO Director-General.
    Date: 2023–08–25
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:8h7rt_v1
  13. By: Teixeira da Silva, Jaime A.
    Abstract: The ability to transmit accurate information that does not deceive its readership, and the use of images that reflects the truth of the fact that they are supposed to be representing, should be an important principle and basal tenet of any traditional or social media-based news or journalistic organization or platform. It is not uncommon to find images or photos that accompany the text of a news article, and the visual impact of an image, as is often expressed in a cliché, can sometimes add much more value than merely the text itself. Whereas some fake news is patently untrue, another gray zone of journalism that is affected by fake news may encompass bias, spin and deceit. Absent rigorous quality control and editing measures, a news source may inadvertently slip into this gray zone, which encompasses the use of stock photos to represent, or supplement, the text of news items. Focusing on photos by a pro-Ukrainian social media app-based news media outlet, this rather unusual case involves a highly topical personality, the President of Ukraine. This article points to how subtle “truth” can change through the use (or abuse) of stock photos. Several images covering May-September of 2022, specifically photos or videos of an unshaven President Zelenskyy in military attire that switch to images of a shaven individual in a suit, and back again, are examined from a single Telegram-based news source. This case exemplifies, using a “soft” example, the risks of “massaging” truth using stock photos. In times of war, especially in the ongoing Russia-Ukrainian war, the accuracy of news, including the non-fictional imagery that accompanies it, is essential, so as to neither mislead nor bias the readership, and to portray the news as accurately and neutrally as possible.
    Date: 2023–04–14
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:qf52m_v1
  14. By: Ermisch, John
    Abstract: The paper introduces to comparative cross-national fertility research a method to formalise what is meant by the TFR’s of countries ‘moving together’. It is based on the estimation of long run fertility relationships which are stationary series (so called ‘cointegrating equations’). Six sets of countries with similar TFR movements within each were identified: Northwest Europe (England and Wales, France, Netherlands and Belgium); (2) Southern Europe (Italy, Spain and Portugal); (3) the Nordic countries (Denmark, Sweden, Norway and Finland); (4) Germany and Austria; (5) the Eastern Europe group of Poland, Czechia, Hungary and Estonia); and (6) the group of Russia, Belarus and Lithuania. There are unique features of TFR movements in each region. But Northwest Europe, the Nordic countries and Southern Europe all share a decline in their TFR during the past decade, albeit from different levels of fertility. This strongly suggests that factors influencing fertility during this period do not stem from particular features in each country but broader influences, whether social or economic.
    Date: 2023–09–28
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:nej84_v1
  15. By: Patrinos, Harry Anthony; Jakubowski, Maciej Jan; Gajderowicz, Tomasz Janusz
    Abstract: To what extent has the learning progress of school-aged children slowed during the COVID-19 pandemic A pre-registered analysis of the first international assessment to be published since the pandemic is conducted to estimate the impact of COVID-19 on student reading. The effect of closures on achievement is modeled by predicting the deviation of the most recent results from a linear trend in reading achievement using data from all rounds using data from 28 countries in Europe and Central Asia. Reading scores declined by an average of 20 percent of a standard deviation, equivalent to just less than a year of schooling. Losses are significantly larger for students in schools that faced relatively longer closures. While there are no significant differences by sex, it is shown that lower-achieving students experienced much larger losses.
    Date: 2023–08–08
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10542
  16. By: Manogna R. L.; Nishil Kulkarni
    Abstract: The financialization of agricultural commodities and its impact on food security has become an increasing concern. This study empirically investigates the role of financialization in global food markets and its policy implications for a stable and secure food system. Using panel data regression models, moderating effects models, and panel regression with a threshold variable, we analyze wheat, maize, and soybean futures traded on the Chicago Board of Trade. We incorporate data on annual trading volume, open interest contracts, and their ratio. The sample consists of five developed countries (United States, Australia, Canada, France, Germany) and seven developing countries (China, Russia, India, Indonesia, Brazil, Vietnam, Thailand), covering the period 2000 to 2021. The Human Development Index (HDI) serves as a threshold variable to differentiate the impact across countries. Our findings indicate that the financialization of agricultural commodities has negatively affected global food security, with wheat and soybean showing a greater adverse impact than maize. The effects are more pronounced in developing countries. Additionally, we find that monetary policy has the potential to mitigate these negative effects. These results provide insights for policymakers to design strategies that ensure a secure and accessible global food supply.
    Date: 2025–02
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2502.05560
  17. By: Antonio, Ronald Jeremy; Valera, Harold Glenn; Mishra, Ashok; Pede, Valerien; Yamano, Takashi; Vieira, Bernardo Oliva
    Abstract: In recent years, prices fertilizer, cereals and rice prices have increased significantly due to the Russia-Ukraine war and the export restrictions imposed by India. Thus resulting in higher rice prices in the Philippines. This paper examines the dynamic relationship between rice price inflation and key drivers in the Philippines by estimating a panel vector auto-regression model using monthly data from 1994 to 2023. We find evidence that the effect of world rice price shock is generally the larger and more persistent than the effects of other factors. We also find that movements in rice price inflation are explained by domestic fuel price shocks and to a lesser extent by the world urea price shocks. The impulse response functions driven by those three shocks vary over the sample, especially before a change in food policy such as the imposition of the rice tariffication in 2019. Further analysis suggests that El Niño Southern Oscillation shocks tend to induce an inflationary effect on rice prices in high-poverty and rice-sufficient regions. Our results have important food policy implications for rice markets, and offer timely insights into the desirability of current proposals to reduce rice prices for consumers and improve existing support for famers to boost rice production.
    Keywords: Panel data, consumer price index, input prices, weather, fuel price persistence shocks, commodities
    JEL: C23 E31 N35 Q18
    Date: 2024–04–30
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:123641
  18. By: Vîntu, Denis
    Abstract: This study examines how fiscal policy affects the economy in order to assess the degree of uncertainty around public finances. The Financial Approach focuses on the collection and utilization of private property by public administration. The title of this paper indicates that it deals with dynamic tax policy concerns. These include the relationship between long-term expectations and short-term outcomes, the impact of fiscal policy on capital formation, economic development, and intergenerational equity, and the extent to which current policies impede the introduction of potential future policies. Dynamic analysis has recently surpassed static analysis in a number of economic fields. It is appropriate to focus on the monetary strategy in particular because it has been modified and adjusted over time in the Republic of Moldova. These adjustments are frequently made beforehand, while they occasionally take into account the present financial situation when it wasn't mentioned before. It should not be shocking that financial variables are always shifting. The direction of the economy is affected by the current policy changes, which ineluctably call for other policy adjustments in the future. The expectation of these future adjustments, however, also has an impact on the current outcomes since it ensures that the consequences of past monetary actions remain, even in the absence of the entire future financial arrangement.
    Keywords: fiscal policy, budget fiscal deficit, primary account deficit, value-added tax, taxation.
    JEL: E3 E37 H3
    Date: 2024–09
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:123504
  19. By: Patrinos, Harry Anthony; Rivera-Olvera, Angelica
    Abstract: Countries across Eastern Europe and Central Asia are in their third decade of independence. What impact does this have on the skills premium and does accession to the European Union have an impact on the returns to education The returns to education in 28 transition and 20 non-transition countries in Europe and Central Asia are analyzed using panel data analysis and difference-in-difference methods to estimate the impact of transition and EU accession. It is found that the transition from a centrally planned economy to a market economy increases the returns to schooling in post-socialist countries positively and significantly, especially through the EU accession channel.
    Date: 2023–06–22
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10496
  20. By: Seitz, William Hutchins; Yamada, Eiji; Shimizutani, Satoshi
    Abstract: This paper studies the effect of proposing a monetary incentive for vaccination intentions, with a survey-based randomized controlled experiment conducted separately in three countries, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan. Respondents from nationally representative surveys were randomly assigned to a control group (for which no incentive was proposed) or to one of several treatment groups with varying levels of hypothetical compensation. Offering incentives markedly reduced overall vaccination intentions —all three counties. Country-level results ranged from no meaningful effect on vaccination intentions (Tajikistan) to a decline of up to 22 percent (Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan). In follow-up questions, most respondents said they disapprove of offering financial incentives for vaccination, and especially in contexts with strong negative effects in the experiment. The results contrast with the well-established efficacy of monetary incentives to influence vaccination behavior in other settings, but they are consistent with findings from the behavioral literature in which incentive payments signal inferiority or disutility. The findings suggest that policy makers and practitioners should use caution when considering extrinsic incentives for vaccination and other health interventions where effects have not been tested.
    Date: 2023–03–09
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10349
  21. By: Lokshin, Michael M.; Sajaia, Zurab; Torre, Ivan
    Abstract: This paper constructs cost-of-living indexes for different groups of households to quantify the differences in the distribution of the burden of high inflation among the populations of countries in Europe and Central Asia. The analysis demonstrates that the cost-of-living crisis of 2022–23 has had a heterogeneous impact on European populations. Poor households appear to suffer the most from rising food and energy prices. Poverty and inequality rates and the profiles of the poor based on household-specific inflation rates systematically differ from those based on the standard consumer price index approach. Accounting for the variability of inflation rates across household types might help policy makers design policies that better protect vulnerable households and promote economic growth.
    Date: 2023–04–06
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10377
  22. By: Eldar Knar
    Abstract: In the context of scientific policy and science management, this study examines the system of nonuniform wage distribution for researchers. A nonlinear mathematical model of optimal remuneration for scientific workers has been developed, considering key and additive aspects of scientific activity: basic qualifications, research productivity, collaborative projects, skill enhancement, distinctions, and international collaborations. Unlike traditional linear schemes, the proposed approach is based on exponential and logarithmic dependencies, allowing for the consideration of saturation effects and preventing artificial wage growth due to mechanical increases in scientific productivity indicators. The study includes detailed calculations of optimal, minimum, and maximum wages, demonstrating a fair distribution of remuneration on the basis of researcher productivity. A linear increase in publication activity or grant funding should not lead to uncontrolled salary growth, thus avoiding distortions in the motivational system. The results of this study can be used to reform and modernize the wage system for researchers in Kazakhstan and other countries, as well as to optimize grant-based science funding mechanisms. The proposed methodology fosters scientific motivation, long-term productivity, and the internationalization of research while also promoting self-actualization and ultimately forming an adequate and authentic reward system for the research community. Specifically, in resource-limited scientific systems, science policy should focus on the qualitative development of individual researchers rather than quantitative expansion (e.g., increasing the number of scientists). This can be achieved through the productive progress of their motivation and self-actualization.
    Date: 2025–02
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2502.17271

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