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on Confederation of Independent States |
| By: | Ahoniemi, Katja; Kerola, Eeva; Koskinen, Kimmo |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the current dependencies and exposures of the euro area's financial sector in a context of rising geopolitical tensions. Focusing on Russia, China, and the Middle East, we analyze direct exposures through lending and securities holdings of banks and large investors. Our findings suggest that the already modest exposures of the euro area have decreased in recent years. Notably, euro area banks and investors have significantly reduced their exposure to Russia in the wake of the Ukraine invasion, and China in response to regulatory uncertainty. Euro area banks reacted quickly to heightened geopolitical risk in the Middle East by reducing their exposure to countries affected by recent turmoil. A new set of potential risks have emerged, however, as a result of strengthened financial ties with the United States. |
| Keywords: | Geopolitical tensions, financial exposure, banking sector, China, Russia, Middle East |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bofitb:311211 |
| By: | M.P Musyoka |
| Abstract: | The Russia and Ukraine crisis escalated into a war in February 2022, with devastating economic consequences. However, the impact of the Russia-Ukraine War (RUW) on gender dynamics remains largely unexplored, particularly at the microeconomic, household, and individual levels. This study considers the Russian-Ukraine War as an exogenous shock with gender and food security effects at the household level. Data was collected from a random sample of 2, 030 respondents through phone interviews conducted in April and May 2024. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aer:wpaper:15d7e874-0626-4adb-9c1a-df8382b2b175 |
| By: | Heng-fu Zou |
| Date: | 2025–02–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cuf:wpaper:738 |
| By: | Musyoka M. P |
| Abstract: | This brief shows that the Russia-Ukraine War (RUW) led to increased food insecurity, declining monthly wages, with disproportionate effects on women, particularly those residing in urban areas. Domestic policies are better suited to mitigate the negative effects of the exogenous shocks (Russia-Ukraine War, RUW) on food security, but female-headed households continued to suffer disproportionately. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aer:wpaper:a0956c8f-b511-4d56-9e58-cff50394ea82 |
| By: | Dickson Wandeda Onyango; Kenneth Kigundu Macharia; Dianah Ngui; Lanoi Maloi |
| Abstract: | The Russia-Ukraine war disrupted global supply chains, leading to higher fuel prices as well as food and fertilizer prices, exacerbating existing gender disparities in Kenya. The study uncovered significant gendered differences in cooking strategies and found that women spent more time on fuel collection and meal preparation. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aer:wpaper:c20718eb-cbc7-4461-9d84-b8116964a29f |
| By: | Ekaterina Zhuravskaya (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Sergei Guriev (Institut d'Études Politiques [IEP] - Paris); Andrei Markevich (New Economic School) |
| Abstract: | This survey discusses recent developments in the growing literature on the Russian economic history of the 19th and 20th centuries. Using novel data and modern empirical methods, this research generates new insights and provides important lessons for development economics and political economy. We organize the discussion around four strands of this literature. First, we summarize and put in comparative perspective research on the long-term trends in economic development and living standards, which shows that throughout history Russia significantly underperformed advanced economies. We also compile reliable quantifications of the human cost of Stalin's dictatorship. Second, we discuss new studies of imperial Russia that partially confirm Gerschenkron's classic conjecture on the institutional explanation for Russia's relatively low level of economic development and on the causes of the revolution. The third strand of the literature focuses on the Soviet period and explains its slowdown over time and the eventual collapse of the system by the command economy's inability to provide incentives to individual agents. The fourth strand documents the long-term economic, social, and political consequences of large-scale historical experiments that took place during both the imperial and the Soviet periods. We conclude by discussing the lessons from these four strands of the literature and highlight open questions for future research. |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:psewpa:halshs-04316019 |
| By: | Dickson Wandeda Onyango; Kenneth Kigundu Macharia; Dianah Ngui; Lanoi Maloi |
| Abstract: | This policy brief discusses the gendered differences in household cooking coping strategies for the Russia-Ukraine War in Kenya. The study presents policy priorities such as empowering women to adopt clean energy by providing low-interest financing and increasing rural access to clean cooking technologies through result-based financing. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aer:wpaper:d589dbb2-48a6-4e10-a3c7-626d490217ff |
| By: | Janani Rangan (National Council of Applied Economic Research, Delhi, India); Abhiman Das (Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad) |
| Abstract: | FIn this paper, we examine the dynamics between inflation uncertainty, beliefs and inflation expectations of firms. Inflation uncertainty and beliefs influence a firm’s perception of the inflation levels, thereby impacting its expected inflation. Using novel survey data on firm inflation expectations, we examine the extent to which crises influence the relationship between inflation uncertainty and inflation expectations. We find that the effect of crisis-led inflation uncertainty on inflation expectation is asymmetric. The COVID-19 pandemic increased the impact of high inflation uncertainty on inflation expectations. On the other hand, the Russia-Ukraine war reduced inflation expectations. The war effect may be attributed to geopolitical factors that helped India procure crude oil from Russia on favourable terms. Additionally, we find that the disagreement in expected inflation across firms seems to have increased in the period postpandemic. Further, this paper analyses whether firms’ beliefs about their own performance influence inflation expectations. Performance can impact the perception of cost structure, thereby, inflation expectations. The findings suggest that firms’ beliefs about their performance are negatively associated with inflation expectations. |
| Keywords: | Inflation expectations, Inflation uncertainty, beliefs, firms |
| JEL: | E30 E31 E58 E60 |
| Date: | 2025–01–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nca:ncaerw:179 |
| By: | Gudrun Svavarsdottir (University of Iceland [Reykjavik]); Andrew E. Clark (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Gunnar Stefansson (University of Iceland [Reykjavik]); Tinna Laufey Asgeirsdottir (University of Iceland [Reykjavik]) |
| Abstract: | There is much still to learn about the relationship between income and well-being, and in particular how this may depend on the economic and social context. We use Russian data to estimate individual Welfare Functions of Income, and examine two potentially context-dependent concepts: self-assessed income needs and welfare sensitivity to income (how well-being changes with income). The considerable geographical diversity in Russia provides within-country variation in GDP, inequality, population density, and unemployment. We first show that income needs exceed actual income on average in Russia, and that these needs are less sensitive to changes in income than in other countries. Second, income needs vary by individual characteristics, while welfare sensitivity does not. Welfare sensitivity is however related to the regional context. Last, our estimated contextual results help us to understand why the existing literature has produced such a wide range of results |
| Keywords: | Income, Well-being, Income needs, Welfare sensitivity, Income Inequality |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:psewpa:halshs-04431857 |
| By: | Monetary Policy Department (National Bank of Kazakhstan) |
| Keywords: | reserve requirements |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aob:anotes:14 |
| By: | Gaëlle BALINEAU; Christophe Barat; Sylvain Bellefontaine; Hélène EHRHART; Vincent Joguet; Benoît Jonveaux; Laura MARIE; Amaury Mulliez; Maxime TERRIEUX; Alix Vigato; Thibault Vasse, |
| Abstract: | As we move into 2025, the legitimacy of the world order inherited from the fall of the Iron Curtain is confronted more than ever with the “ambivalent superpower” of the United States, already described by H. Kissinger in his book, but also with accusations of “double standards” between the North and South. This concerns both respect for human rights and freedoms and the consideration of CO2 emissions. In terms of the distribution of power, over the same period between 1990 and 2023, the weight of the United States in world GDP stagnated, even falling slightly from 27% to 26%, while the weight of China grew about tenfold, from 1.7% to 16.9%. Combined with the increasing weight of middle powers, such as the BRICS, we can clearly see that the geopolitical equation has changed dramatically, but we may not have been aware of the impact that this would have on “geo-economic” dynamics.This new situation raises a number of questions for those interested in emerging and developing economies: How to take geopolitical factors into account in economic models? What resilience mechanisms can cushion the geopolitical shocks? And, especially, how to promote a bilateral and multilateral dialogue able to mitigate the risks of fragmentation? Once again, this MacroDev Semestrial Panorama does not claim to answer all these questions, but seeks to provide insight, so that the uncertainty we are experiencing does not prevent us from considering more peaceful futures. |
| Keywords: | Afrique du Sud, Ghana, Cuba, Mexique, Bangladesh, Géorgie, Jordanie, Moldavie, Ukraine, Pakistan, République dominicaine |
| JEL: | E |
| Date: | 2025–02–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:avg:wpaper:en17850 |
| By: | Xiwen Bai; Jesús Fernández-Villaverde; Yiliang Li; Le Xu; Francesco Zanetti |
| Abstract: | We examine the rise of dark shipping – oil tankers disabling AIS transceivers to evade detection – amid Western sanctions on Iran, Syria, North Korea, Venezuela, and Russia. Using a machine learning-based ship clustering model, we track dark-shipped crude oil trade flows worldwide and detect unauthorized ship-to-ship transfers. From 2017 to 2023, dark ships transported an estimated 7.8 million metric tons of crude oil monthly – 43% of global seaborne crude exports – with China absorbing 15%. These sanctioned flows offset recorded declines in global oil exports but create distinct economic shifts. The U.S., a net oil exporter, faces lower oil prices but benefits from cheaper Chinese imports, driving deflationary growth. The EU, a net importer, contends with rising energy costs yet gains from Chinese demand, fuelling inflationary expansion. China, leveraging discounted oil, boosts industrial output, propagating global economic shocks. Our findings expose dark shipping’s central role in reshaping oil markets and macroeconomic dynamics. |
| Date: | 2025–02–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:wpaper:1070 |
| By: | Xiwen Bai (Tsinghua University); Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde (University of Pennsylvania); Yiliang Li (University of International Business and Economics); Le Xu (Shanghai Jiao Tong University); Francesco Zanetti (University of Oxford) |
| Abstract: | We examine the rise of dark shipping – oil tankers disabling AIS transceivers to evade detection – amid Western sanctions on Iran, Syria, North Korea, Venezuela, and Russia. Using a machine learning-based ship clustering model, we track dark-shipped crude oil trade flows worldwide and detect unauthorized ship-to-ship transfers. From 2017 to 2023, dark ships transported an estimated 7.8 million metric tons of crude oil monthly – 43% of global seaborne crude exports – with China absorbing 15%. These sanctioned flows offset recorded declines in global oil exports but create distinct economic shifts. The U.S., a net oil exporter, faces lower oil prices but benefits from cheaper Chinese imports, driving deflationary growth. The EU, a net importer, contends with rising energy costs yet gains from Chinese demand, fueling inflationary expansion. China, leveraging discounted oil, boosts industrial output, propagating global economic shocks. Our findings expose dark shipping’s central role in reshaping oil markets and macroeconomic dynamics. |
| Keywords: | Dark shipping, oil sanction, satellite data, clustering analysis, LP |
| JEL: | C32 C38 E32 Q43 R40 |
| Date: | 2025–02–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pen:papers:25-005 |
| By: | Yan Li; Carol Alexander; Michael Coulon; Istvan Kiss |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the inherently random structures of dry bulk shipping networks, often likened to a taxi service, and identifies the underlying trade dynamics that contribute to this randomness within individual cargo sub-networks. By analysing micro-level trade flow data from 2015 to 2023, we explore the evolution of dry commodity networks, including grain, coal, and iron ore, and suggest that the Giant Strongly Connected Components exhibit small-world phenomena, indicative of efficient bilateral trade. The significant heterogeneity of in-degree and out-degree within these sub-networks, primarily driven by importing ports, underscores the complexity of their dynamics. Our temporal analysis shows that while the Covid-19 pandemic profoundly impacted the coal network, the Ukraine conflict significantly altered the grain network, resulting in changes in community structures. Notably, grain sub-networks display periodic changes, suggesting distinct life cycles absent in coal and iron ore networks. These findings illustrate that the randomness in dry bulk shipping networks is a reflection of real-world trade dynamics, providing valuable insights for stakeholders in navigating and predicting network behaviours. |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2502.00877 |
| By: | von Daniels, Laura (Ed.); Mair, Stefan (Ed.) |
| Abstract: | Die zweite Trump-Präsidentschaft stellt Deutschland und Europa vor große Herausforderungen. Geprägt sein wird die Politik der neuen US-Regierung von einer konfrontativen Grundhaltung gegenüber der EU, vor allem gegenüber Deutschland, einer Präferenz für interessengeleitete Transaktionen, aber auch von unvorhersehbaren Kurswechseln. Das Vorgehen der Trump-Regierung wird globale Kooperationen belasten, vor allem in der Klima- und Flüchtlingspolitik. Dabei haben die EU und andere Akteure bislang keine Lösungen entwickelt, um ein fehlendes US-Engagement auszugleichen. Trumps transaktionale Außenpolitik beeinflusst lokale und regionale Konflikte, wie im Verhältnis zu Israel und Nahost, und könnte Völkerrecht wie demokratische Prinzipien untergraben. Auch ist einmal mehr offen, wohin sich die US-Politik gegenüber Iran entwickeln wird. Der Konflikt mit China steht weiter im Zentrum der amerikanischen Außen- und Sicherheitspolitik. Dies hat massive Auswirkungen auf die Partner der USA in der Indo-Pazifik-Region, die auf Trumps sicherheitspolitische Unterstützung angewiesen sind. Vieles hängt von der Entwicklung der "Checks and Balances" in den USA ab. Offen ist, inwieweit Kongress und Gerichte dem Präsidenten außenpolitisch Grenzen setzen können. Zudem ist unklar, ob sich jene Stimmen innerhalb der Administration, die in der Pflege von Bündnissen einen strategischen Vorteil für die USA sehen, gegenüber den isolationistischen Kräften durchsetzen werden. Entscheidend für die Europäer wird sein, wie die Trump-Regierung mit den für sie zentralen Fragen der Sicherheitspolitik - Nato und Ukraine - umgeht. Sollten die USA ihre Verpflichtungen hier einschränken, könnte sich die Sicherheitsarchitektur in Europa grundlegend verändern. Neue Handelszölle und wirtschaftliche Zwangsmaßnahmen der USA könnten der EU - zusätzlich zur sicherheitspolitischen Verunsicherung - erheblich schaden. Problematischer als die rein wirtschaftlichen Kosten von Zöllen ist aber Trumps Neigung, Außenwirtschafts- und Sicherheitspolitik zu verknüpfen, denn dies erschwert bisher eine geschlossene Antwort der Europäer auf seine Drohungen. Europa und Deutschland müssen daher die Anstrengungen deutlich erhöhen, für ihre eigene Sicherheit zu sorgen. Wichtig ist nicht nur die innereuropäische Abstimmung, auch mit dem Vereinigten Königreich; darüber hinaus gilt es weitere Partner einzubeziehen, die sich gegenüber den USA in einer ähnlichen Lage befinden, vor allem Japan und Südkorea. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpstu:311188 |
| By: | Karim El Aynaoui |
| Abstract: | This paper (see pages: 182-186), included in the report 'Foresight Africa - Top Priorities for the Continent 2025-2030, ' was originally published on brookings.edu In an increasingly fragmented world grappling with common challenges such as the global climate crisis, the Atlantic Ocean can be leveraged for Africa’s climate action, continental integration, contribution to the provision of global public goods, development, improved participation to the global economy, international cooperation, and peace and security. The global context in which this opportunity should be seized is two-pronged. On the one hand, in recent years, geopolitical conflict has blocked multilateral institutions, fueled military expenditures, increased barriers to investment and trade restrictions, and led to a surge in violent deaths and forced displacement. It is against this backdrop that internationalized civil wars in the Great Lakes, Horn, and Sahel regions, the effects of which have often been compounded by climate change, have claimed hundreds of thousands of African lives and displaced millions. Geo-economic fragmentation driven by heightened competition over global influence, technology, and manufacturing jobs and value added adds another layer of complexity. For instance, the disruption of global value chains triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war increased the number of people suffering from acute food insecurity in sub-Saharan Africa by 40 million in 2020-22 alone, giving an indication of Africa’s vulnerability to trade imbalances. On the other hand, nations have also demonstrated increased appetites for entering agreements with each other. Minilateralism and multi-alignment are becoming commonplace. New international coalitions, groupings, fora, and organizations have blossomed on topics such as biodiversity, clean energy, economic cooperation, food security, and technology. In the face of global challenges, the contribution of nations to global initiatives aiming at the delivery of global public goods is an increasingly important aspect of policymaking and smart power... |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbecon:for_182 |
| By: | Khakimov, Parviz; Ashurov, Timur; Goibov, Manuchehr; Aliev, Jovidon |
| Abstract: | This study examines the growth and challenges in Tajikistan’s agriculture sector, highlighting its role as a key driver of the country’s development despite significant constraints and challenges, including inputs scarcity and climate change. The agriculture sector has seen an increase in gross outputs and sectoral value added, contributing to domestic needs due to population and income growth. However, Tajikistan still has the lowest agricultural value added per worker in Central Asia and remains a net importer of agrifood products, primarily due to the underdevelopment of the food processing sector. Key growth drivers include sectoral reforms, shifts in land allocation, and government incentives. Despite these efforts, regional disparities in productivity persist, and access to inputs such as fertilizers and mechanization remains limited. The paper emphasizes the need for improved access to finance, agricultural inputs, and extension services to ensure sustainable development and food security. Recommendations include enhancing the capacity of national agricultural research and development institutions, promoting climate-smart agriculture, and improving water and irrigation management. Additionally, the study underscores the importance of developing the livestock sector through improved feeding, breeding, and veterinary services. Overall, a comprehensive approach addressing policy, institutional, economic, and technological gaps is crucial for the sustainable advancement of Tajikistan’s agriculture sector. |
| Keywords: | agriculture; development; policy analysis; reforms; Asia; Central Asia; Tajikistan |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:2317 |
| By: | Alberto Prati (UCL - University College of London [London], LSE - London School of Economics and Political Science, University of Oxford); Claudia Senik (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, SU - Sorbonne Université) |
| Abstract: | We revisit the Easterlin paradox about the flatness of the happiness trend over the long run, in spite of sustained economic development. With a bounded scale that explicitly refers to "the best possible life for you" and "the worst possible life for you", is it even possible to observe a rising trend in self-declared life satisfaction? We consider the possibility of rescaling, i.e. that the interpretation of the scale changes with the context in which respondents are placed. We propose a simple model of rescaling and reconstruct an index of latent happiness on the basis of retrospective reports included in unexploited archival data from the USA. We show that national well-being has substantially increased from the 1950s to the early 2000s, on par with GDP, health, education, and liberal democracy. We validate our new index on several datasets, and find that it captures important changes in personal life circumstances over and above nominal life satisfaction. Our model sheds light on several well-documented happiness puzzles, including why life satisfaction did not drop during the COVID-19 pandemic, why Ukrainians report similar levels of life satisfaction today as before the war, and why people take life-changing decisions -like having kids -that seem to make them less happy. |
| Keywords: | Gallup, SOEP, Happiness, Life Satisfaction, Subjective Well-Being, Easterlin Paradox, Cantril Ladder, Rescaling |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:psewpa:halshs-04850502 |