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on Confederation of Independent States |
| By: | Fernando Avalos; Wenqian Huang; Kevin Tracol |
| Abstract: | European futures markets for natural gas and electricity were deeply disrupted by the events following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, including through large fluctuations in margins. The fluctuations in margins put significant liquidity demands on market participants, prompting the official sector to establish liquidity facilities in some jurisdictions. Fluctuations in initial margins were associated with material reductions in open interest of market participants, in line with standard deleveraging mechanisms seen in financial markets. |
| Date: | 2023–09–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:bisblt:77 |
| By: | Kiet Tuan Duong (University of York); Steven Ongena (University of Zurich - Department Finance; Swiss Finance Institute; KU Leuven; NTNU Business School; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)); Nam T. Vu (Miami University of Ohio - Department of Economics); Luu Duc Toan Huynh (Queen Mary University of London) |
| Abstract: | Do international sanctions impact patenting? To answer this question, we study patent applications originating in Russia, currently one of the world's most heavily sanctioned countries. We find that Russian applications are subject to longer processing times in sanctioning countries and that filed Russian patents exhibit fewer forward citations. Interestingly, applicants with names similar to those in the Kremlin or in the top 20 of popular Russian first names, and applicants who have filed patents during the last three years receive faster processing and greater forward citations. Retaliatory "revenge" sanctions imposed by Russia have an opposite impact, but the impact is more robustly overturned in sanctioning countries. |
| Keywords: | sanction, patent, knowledge spillover, processing duration |
| JEL: | D02 D74 D83 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp2501 |
| By: | Antonina Levashenko (Russian Foreign Trade Academy Ministry of economic development of the Russian Federation); Maria Girich (Russian Foreign Trade Academy Ministry of economic development of the Russian Federation) |
| Abstract: | The subject of this research study is the legal relations related to the regulation of «landing» foreign digital platforms in the EAEU countries, including an assessment of whether that requirements create barriers for companies located in different EAEU countries. The relevance of the study is based on the fact that Russia and Kazakhstan have introduced «landing» requirements for digital platforms. At the same time, these practices of foreign companies may in some cases create a non-tariff barrier. The aim of the study is to analyze the legislation at the supranational level and at the level of the EAEU member states on the regulation of requirements for «landing» foreign digital platforms, to compare the approaches in the EAEU countries with those of foreign countries, and to develop proposals on how to «mitigate» such a barrier. The research methodology is based on the application of methods of logical, systemic and comparative analysis using Russian and foreign legal acts, analytical materials of competent authors and international organizations. To achieve the purpose, the following objectives are expected to be achieved: - comparing the approaches of the EAEU countries in regulating the requirements for landing foreign companies; - assessing the compatibility of this requirement with the EAEU Treaty, including the barriers to the free opening of enterprises; - comparing the approaches of foreign countries (EU, Turkey, etc.) with the EAEU countries in terms of «landing» requirements. As a result, the study provides the proposals for the Eurasian Economic Commission to solve the problem of application the requirements for «landing» foreign digital platforms by the EAEU countries. This study's research perspective centers on improving legislation of the Union in terms of developing recommendations for the EAEU countries to introduce requirements for «landing» of foreign companies. Such recommendations are necessary to ensure that the process of «landing» does not entail significant administrative and financial costs for platforms in the EAEU and does not create barriers within the Union. The study is based on the materials of the research work carried out in accordance with the state order of the Russian Academy of Foreign Trade of the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia for 2024. |
| Keywords: | digital economy, EAEU, platform landing, foreign platforms, EAEU legislation, EEC |
| JEL: | K24 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:alq:wpaper:2024_1 |
| By: | Виктория, Савинова; Сергей, Ярушев; Владислав, Иксанов |
| Abstract: | Abstract. The authors present a methodology for constructing short-term forecasting models using sequential application of mathematical models such as ARIMA, multiple linear regression, regression decision tree and random forest. The models in the article are ranked in order of increasing computational complexity and in order of decreasing stability and interpretability. The modeling tool is the information and analytical system "Horizon" developed by the staff of the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics. |
| Keywords: | Key words: short-term forecasting, socio-economic indicators, econometric models. |
| JEL: | O21 |
| Date: | 2025–01–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:123093 |
| By: | Сейдазов Балислам // Seidazov Balislam (National Bank of Kazakhstan) |
| Abstract: | Изучение эффекта переноса шоков обменного курса на инфляцию представляет собой особо важный аспект экономических исследований, в частности для стран с развивающимися рынками. Оценка эффекта переноса имеет особое значение для Казахстана ввиду экономических характеристик страны, таких как свободно плавающий обменный курс, активная торговая позиция и высокий спрос на импортные товары. Также данная тема принимает еще более значимое положение в контексте инфляционного таргетирования, в рамках которого изучение факторов, влияющих на инфляцию, приобретает ключевую важность. В данной работе анализируется наличие, степень и динамика данного эффекта в Казахстане, что позволит глубже понять взаимодействие между внешнеэкономическими факторами и внутренней инфляцией. Результаты построенных моделей векторных авторегрессий и функции импульсных откликов свидетельствуют о наличии передачи колебаний номинальных обменных курсов тенге к российскому рублю и доллару США на инфляцию в Казахстане. // Studying the effect of exchange rate shocks on inflation is a particularly important aspect of economic research, especially for countries with developing markets. Evaluating the pass-through effect is of special significance for Kazakhstan due to the country's economic characteristics, such as a freely floating exchange rate, an active trade position, and high demand for imported goods. This topic also gains further importance in the context of inflation targeting, where examining factors that influence inflation becomes crucial. This paper analyzes the presence, degree, and dynamics of this effect in Kazakhstan, aiming to provide a deeper understanding of the interaction between external economic factors and domestic inflation. The results of the vector autoregression models and impulse response functions indicate the existence of a transmission of fluctuations in the nominal exchange rates of the tenge against the Russian ruble and the US dollar onto inflation in Kazakhstan. |
| Keywords: | инфляция, эффект переноса, модель векторной авторегрессии, импульсные отклики, векторная авторегрессия, inflation, pass-through effect, vector autoregression model, impulse responses, vector autoregression |
| JEL: | E30 E31 F31 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aob:wpaper:61 |
| By: | Antonina Levashenko (Russian Foreign Trade Academy Ministry of economic development of the Russian Federation); Kirill Chernovol (Russian Foreign Trade Academy Ministry of economic development of the Russian Federation) |
| Abstract: | The subject of the study is the system of measures of state support and monitoring of the non-profit sector in Russia, including measures to identify certain types of non-profit organizations (SONPO, FCC), compiling registers of such organizations, as well as mechanisms for collecting data on the non-profit sector. The relevance of the study is due to the need to improve the mechanisms of state support for the non-profit sector, taking into account its contribution to the economy and eliminating existing gaps in legal regulation. Currently, there is duplication of reporting requirements, the absence of a single register of socially oriented non-profit organizations and difficulties in identifying such organizations, which complicates their access to support measures. The problems of inconsistency between regional and federal lists of types of activities of SONPO, as well as the lack of effective accounting of NPOs - owners of endowment capital indicate the need to unify legal regulation and develop comprehensive monitoring tools. In addition, improving the methods for assessing the contribution of the non-profit sector to the economy will allow for the formation of more objective and balanced management decisions aimed at developing charity, volunteering and social entrepreneurship. The purpose of the study is to prepare proposals for improving state support measures for the non-profit sector based on its monitoring and forecasting. The methodology of the work is based on the use of methods of logical, systemic, comparative legal analysis, as well as economic modeling. In preparing the work, Russian and foreign regulatory legal acts, as well as analytical materials, were used. The result of the study were proposals for improving state support for the non-profit sector, including the creation of a single register of NPOs, unification of their types of activities, improvement of reporting and accounting of contribution to the economy. Measures have been developed to harmonize the legal regulation of NPOs, indicators for monitoring and rating regions have been improved, and recommendations have been given for the development of charity and volunteerism. |
| Keywords: | non-profit organizations, charitable activities, volunteer work, economic impact assessment, support for the non-profit sector, monitoring of the non-profit sector |
| JEL: | K33 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:alq:wpaper:2024_2 |
| By: | Мейрманова Асель // Meirmanova Assel (National Bank of Kazakhstan) |
| Abstract: | Исследование посвящено анализу пресс-релизов Национального Банка Казахстана (НБРК) за период с 2015 по 2023 годы, с целью выявления изменений в содержании, объеме и удобочитаемости текстов, а также анализа акцентов в коммуникационной политике НБРК. Работа охватывает период с момента внедрения режима инфляционного таргетирования и рассматривает реакцию НБРК на важные экономические события, такие как колебания валютного курса, пандемия COVID-19 и геополитическая нестабильность. Анализ пресс-релизов включал оценку частоты употребления ключевых терминов второго порядка, таких как «нефть», «фискальный импульс» и «валюта», что позволило отследить изменения в акцентах коммуникации банка в разные годы. Важной частью работы является исследование удобочитаемости пресс-релизов с использованием индексов Флеша и ФлешаКинкейда, что дало возможность оценить, как сложность текстов изменялась в зависимости от экономических условий. Наибольшая детализация и усложнение текстов наблюдались в 2020–2021 годах, в ответ на глобальные вызовы, такие как пандемия и нестабильность на нефтяных рынках. С 2022 года, напротив, наметилась тенденция к упрощению и сокращению объема текстов, что может свидетельствовать о стремлении сделать информацию более доступной для широкой аудитории. Исследование показывает, как изменялась коммуникационная стратегия НБРК с течением времени, адаптируясь к внутренним и внешним вызовам. |
| Keywords: | Национальный Банк Казахстана, денежно-кредитная политика, пресс-релизы, коммуникационная политика, инфляционное таргетирование, удобочитаемость, прозрачность, monetary policy, press-release, communication policy, inflation targeting |
| JEL: | E58 D83 C80 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aob:wpaper:60 |
| By: | Ibadoghlu, Gubad |
| Abstract: | Azerbaijan, heavily dependent on oil and gas exports, faces significant economic challenges due to fluctuations in global energy markets, declining oil revenues, rising imports, and increasing fiscal instability. This paper examines the potential impact of the Trump administration’s energy policies on global oil prices and their broader implications for Azerbaijan’s economy. While deregulation and expanded fossil fuel production in the U.S. could drive oil prices down, geopolitical uncertainties surrounding Russia, Iran, and Venezuela may offset these effects. Additionally, U.S. alignment with Saudi Arabia and OPEC+ members, combined with capital discipline in the energy sector, may constrain the anticipated increase in production. Given these dynamics, Azerbaijan must urgently implement policy reforms and economic diversification strategies to mitigate potential risks and ensure long-term financial stability. |
| Keywords: | Trump Energy Policy, Oil Prices, Azerbaijan Economy, National Energy Emergency Act, U.S. Oil Production, Global Energy Market, Fossil Fuels, Geopolitical Risks, Oil and Gas Revenues, Economic Diversification |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:309950 |
| By: | KAWASE Tsuyoshi |
| Abstract: | In the context of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and supply chain disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, and in addition to geopolitical conflicts between the U.S. and China, the importance of semiconductors as a strategic commodity is rapidly increasing. Under the first term of the Trump administration, the U.S. tightened export controls on China, targeting advanced semiconductors and equipment and technologies for their development, design, and manufacture, by placing Huawei and its affiliated companies on the Entity List of the U.S. Export Administration Regulations (EAR) in 2019. Subsequently, since October 2022, the Biden administration has successively introduced more stringent and comprehensive export controls and has gradually expanded their scope mainly in order to prevent or delay China's development of artificial intelligence (AI). The analysis of the U.S. measures in this paper shows that the U.S. intends to secure its advantage over China, particularly in technologies related to the wafer process in semiconductor manufacturing. From one perspective, the U.S. measures are an industrial policy tool targeting dual-use products, which corresponds to a medium- to long-term security strategy against the backdrop of the continuing U.S.-China geopolitical tensions. The Biden administration has stated that its goal is to take “as large of a lead as possible†over China in the semiconductor technologies. This paper analyzes the U.S. regulations and explores, through the interpretation of Article 21 of the GATT (security exceptions), whether such comprehensive trade restrictions for security purposes based on a medium- to long-term framework are consistent with the WTO agreements, or whether only measures that are strict but as narrowly scoped as possible ("small yard, high fence") are permissible. |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:rdpsjp:25001 |
| By: | Joseph E. Gagnon (Peterson Institute for International Economics); Asher Rose (Peterson Institute for International Economics) |
| Abstract: | The speed of both the rise and fall of US inflation in 2021-23 took many economists by surprise. This paper shows that the rise of COVID era inflation reflects three independent shocks: a plethora of pandemic-related shifts in demand patterns and supply disruptions; the largest commodity price surge in 40 years caused by the Ukraine war; and strong monetary and fiscal responses to the pandemic, which kept labor markets tight. The authors document the transmission of these shocks through the main components of private consumption: durable goods, nondurable goods, and services. The rapid fall of inflation reflects the credibility of the Federal Reserve's commitment to low inflation, something that was not apparent during the inflationary shocks of the 1970s but that was important during the Korean War inflation of 1950-51. Another similarity with the Korean War episode is the temporary surge in demand for durable goods. |
| Keywords: | durable goods, nondurable goods, services, pandemic inflation |
| JEL: | E30 E31 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iie:wpaper:wp25-1 |
| By: | Gaëlle BALINEAU; Christophe Barat; Sylvain Bellefontaine; Hélène EHRHART; Vincent Joguet; Benoît Jonveaux; Laura MARIE; Amaury Mulliez; Maxime TERRIEUX; Alix Vigato; Thibault Vasse, |
| Abstract: | À l’aube de 2025, la légitimité de l’ordre mondial hérité de la chute du rideau de fer se heurte plus que jamais à la « Superpuissance ambivalente » des États-Unis telle qu’H. Kissinger la décrivait déjà dans son livre, mais aussi à des accusations de « doubles standards » entre nord et sud, tant dans l’application des droits humains et des libertés que dans la prise en compte des émissions de CO2. Quant à la répartition des puissances, sur la même période écoulée entre 1990 et 2023, le poids des États-Unis dans le PIB mondial a stagné – régressant même légèrement de 27% à 26% – quand celui de la Chine a été multiplié par 10 environ, passant de 1, 7% à 16, 9%. Si l’on ajoute l’évolution du poids des puissances intermédiaires telles que les BRICS, on comprend combien l’équation géopolitique a profondément évolué, sans peut-être que l’on réalise combien cela aurait d’impacts sur la « géo-économie ».Cette nouvelle donne pose plusieurs interrogations pour qui s’intéresse aux économies émergentes et en développement : comment intégrer les facteurs géopolitiques dans les modèles économiques ? Quels mécanismes de résilience pour amortir les chocs géopolitiques ? Et surtout, comment encourager des dialogues bilatéraux ou multilatéraux capables d’atténuer les risques de fragmentation ?Une fois de plus, ce Macrodev semestriel ne prétend pas répondre à toutes ces questions, mais il essaye d’apporter un éclairage, pour que l’incertitude dans laquelle nous vivons ne nous prive pas de réfléchir à des avenirs plus apaisés. |
| Keywords: | Afrique du Sud, Ghana, Cuba, Mexique, Bangladesh, Géorgie, Jordanie, Moldavie, Ukraine, Pakistan, République dominicaine |
| JEL: | E |
| Date: | 2025–01–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:avg:wpaper:fr17850 |