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on Confederation of Independent States |
| By: | Ibrahim Nana (World Bank Group); Rasmané Ouedraogo (International Monetary Fund (IMF)); Sapwende Jules Tapsoba (FERDI - Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Développement International) |
| Abstract: | The ongoing global trend is marked by increasing geopolitical fragmentation, leading to policy differences, longer supply chains, and heightened uncertainty. Recent events such as the war between Russia and Ukraine, conflicts in the Middle East, and trade disputes between the United States and China demonstrate this global uncertainty. The World Uncertainty Index has steadily increased since the 1990s and peaked in 2020 due to factors like US-China trade tensions, Brexit, and the coronavirus pandemic. |
| Keywords: | Trade, International trade, Geopolitics, supply chains |
| Date: | 2024–11–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04809647 |
| By: | Axelle Ferriere (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | The invasion of Ukraine by Russia in February 2022 prompted numerous countries to impose economic sanctions against Russia. In the months following the onset of the conflict, coalitions of nations collaboratively devised a set of measures aimed at restricting trade with Russia. Additionally, assets belonging to Russian individuals or companies were frozen. The scale of these sanctions has been unparalleled, marking a historic moment not witnessed for decades. This pertains not only to the extent and variety of economic actions taken against Russia but also to the aspect of implementing such actions against a nation of Russia's size and geopolitical importance. To evaluate the impact of sanctions on the Russian economy, analysts examined the exchange rate, which has the advantage of being available in real time. Initially, after the sanctions were imposed, the Ruble experienced depreciation, prompting several analysts to assert the effectiveness of the sanctions. However, a few months later, the Ruble began to appreciate, eventually surpassing its pre-war level in late spring 2022 and maintaining this elevated position for several months. This rebound in the Russian currency raised inquiries about the correlation between sanctions and exchange rates: is it inevitable for the currency to depreciate after sanctions, and if so, why? |
| Date: | 2024–04–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04849208 |
| By: | Ruedin, Didier |
| Abstract: | The objective of this research synthesis is to collect and summarize the research literature on Ukrainian refugees in Switzerland. This is done through a systematic review, mostly in the form of a narrative review and with statistical indicators that are synthesized. There is a wide range of evidence on Ukrainian refugees in Switzerland and their integration, although substantive and systematic gaps remain. The review provides a brief historical background, looks at the demographic composition of Ukrainian refugees in Switzerland, discusses economic integration, housing, education, social integration, crime and safety, health and well-being, and attitudes to Ukrainian refugees. Much less is known about cultural integration and political participation. Given the size of the population and the ongoing war in Ukraine, more research on Ukrainian refugees is warranted, particularly in the direction of successful integration in a context where return seems increasingly unlikely --- although dual-intent remains the official focus ---, and in areas beyond economic integration that affect well-being and intentions to return. |
| Keywords: | Ukraine, Switzerland, attitudes, demographics, economics, education, health, housing, integration, media, participation, literature review, refugees |
| JEL: | F22 O15 J15 J61 K37 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:308844 |
| By: | Otaviano Canuto; Mahmoud Arbouch; Pepe Zhang; Abdelaaziz Ait Ali |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine have reignited the debate on efficiency versus resilience in international trade and global value chains (GVCs). This policy brief [a] (i) explains the contrasting perspectives of the private sector (primarily seeking efficiency) and the public sector (aiming for resilience); (ii) demonstrates that GVCs are still flourishing, despite some mounting signals of a geo-fragmentation leading to greater reallocation of the GVCs; and (iii) provides recommendations to help the G20 navigate the balancing act between efficiency and resilience considerations. Domestic policy design in the G20 countries and international coordination among these countries is essential. |
| Date: | 2023–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbecon:pbnn_32 |
| By: | Mr. Serhan Cevik; Yueshu Zhao |
| Abstract: | European electricity markets are in the midst of unprecedented changes—caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the rise of renewable sources of energy. Using high-frequency data, this paper investigates volatility spillovers across 24 countries in the European Union (EU) during the period 2014–2024 to provide a better understanding of the transmission of risks in an international context. We develop both a static and a dynamic assessment of spillover effects and directional decomposition between individual countries. Our main findings show that about 73 percent of the forecast error variation is explained by cross-variance shares, which means only 27 percent can be attributed to shocks within each country. In other words, cross-border volatility spillovers dominate the behavior in national electricity markets in Europe—and this effect has grown over time. We also implement an augmented gravity model of bilateral volatility spillovers across power markets in the EU. Altogether, these results provide important insights to policymakers and regulators with regards to greater integration of electricity markets and infrastructure improvements that would also help with the transition to low-carbon sources of power generation and strengthen energy security in Europe. |
| Keywords: | Electricity prices; Volatility; Spillovers; Gravity model; Renewable energy; Electricity market reform; Europe |
| Date: | 2025–01–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/007 |
| By: | Ying-Hui Shao; Yan-Hong Yang; Wei-Xing Zhou |
| Abstract: | This study examines contemporaneous and lagged spillover effects in BRICS staple grain futures markets and their linkages with U.S. markets. The results show that contemporaneous spillovers dominate, while net spillovers are driven by lagged connectedness. Systemic risk is lower in intra-BRICS markets compared to those including the U.S., highlighting the U.S. grain market's significant influence. Brazilian and U.S. grains are key net spillover contributors, excluding U.S. rice, while South African staple grains act as major net receivers. Particularly, the spillover between soybeans is the strongest. The study also reveals heterogeneous impacts of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Black Sea Grain Initiative on grain futures. |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2412.15738 |
| By: | Yasmeen Fekery Yaseen El Khodary; Mousa Gowfal Selmey Gowfal Selmey; Elsayed Farrag Elsaid Mohamed Elsayed |
| Abstract: | This paper investigated the impact of Egypt's accession to the BRICS bloc by studying the participation rate of BRICS countries in Egypt, as well as the exposure rate and the ratio of foreign investment of BRICS countries in Egypt to the total foreign investment in Egypt, as well as Egypt's export opportunities in the BRICS markets and the impact of these variables on the ratio of foreign assets in Egypt during the period from 2000 to 2024, In order to predict the impact of Egypt's accession to the BRICS bloc in the coming years as well. The study used the ARDL model to determine the impact of the four independent variables on the dependent variable (foreign assets), which is the ratio of foreign assets. It also used automatic ARIMA model to predict the values of the study variables during the period from 2024 to 2030. |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2412.16927 |
| By: | Pitters, Julia; Weber, Susanne Theresia |
| Abstract: | The IU Compass Project titled "Geldanlagemotive von Student*innen der IU Internationale Hochschule in Zeiten der Krise" investigates the driving forces behind the financial decision-making and personal investment behaviors of students at IU Internationale Hochschule. This research addresses both tangible and intangible factors influencing the decision to invest in personal development, such as the pursuit of higher education. Students' investment preferences are shaped by a combination of personal attributes and current developments in the financial markets and geopolitics. A central aspect of this study is the examination of the financial literacy of aspiring academics. Key questions addressed include students' risk assessments of various investment forms, the perceived threat of crises like the Ukraine war and inflation, and the role of demographic factors in financial decisions. The results indicate significant gender differences in risk attitudes and a strong need for improved financial competence. The study aims to provide fundamental insights into the relevance of financial education for IU students and advocates for curricular enhancements to support informed financial decision-making processes. |
| Keywords: | Generation Z, Financial behavior, Wealth accumulation, Investment, Students, Financial education |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iubhbm:308798 |
| By: | Vincent Chatellier (SMART - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Rennes Angers - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement) |
| Abstract: | World trade in poultry meat (all species, including preparations and cured meats), excluding intra-European Union (EU) trade, reached 22.3 million tce in 2022, worth 31.6 billion euros, the highest level ever. This increase in trade, dominated by exports from Brazil, the United States, the EU and Thailand, is taking place against a backdrop in which global consumption of poultry meat has doubled since 2000. The main importers are China, Japan, the UK and the EU. The EU's poultry meat trade balance remains positive (2.3 billion euros in 2023), thanks to sustained exports to the UK market and despite increased imports from Ukraine. Within the EU, Poland stands out with a four-fold increase in production and a rapid rise in exports in two decades. In France, the sector's economic trajectory is unfavorable, with imports accounting for 44 % of domestic consumption. Using three databases (BACI, COMEXT and French customs), this article summarizes the evolution of world, European and French trade in poultry meat. |
| Abstract: | Le commerce mondial de viande de volailles (toutes espèces confondues, préparations et viandes saumurées incluses), mesuré hors échanges intra-Union européenne (UE), s'est élevé à 22, 3 millions de tec en 2022 pour un montant de 31, 6 milliards d'euros, le plus haut niveau jamais atteint. La hausse de ces échanges, dominés à l'export par le Brésil, les États-Unis, l'UE et la Thaïlande, intervient dans un contexte où la consommation mondiale de viandes de volailles a doublé depuis 2000. Les principaux importateurs sont la Chine, le Japon, le Royaume-Uni et l'UE. La balance commerciale de l'UE en viande de volailles demeure toujours positive (2, 3 milliards d'euros en 2023) grâce aux exportations soutenues vers le marché britannique et en dépit d'importations accentuées en provenance de l'Ukraine. Au sein de l'UE, la Pologne se distingue avec un quadruplement de sa production et un essor rapide de ses exportations en deux décennies. En France, la trajectoire économique de cette filière est défavorable avec des importations qui représentent 44 % de la consommation intérieure. En valorisant trois bases de données (BACI, COMEXT et douanes françaises), cet article propose une synthèse sur l'évolution du commerce mondial, européen et français de viande de volailles. |
| Keywords: | Trade, Competitiveness, Exports, Imports, Poultry, Commerce, Compétitivité, Exportations, Importations, Volailles |
| Date: | 2024–12–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04829482 |
| By: | Felipe de Bolle; Egemen Kolemen |
| Abstract: | With the increasing urgency of climate change's impacts and limited success in reducing emissions, "geoengineering, " or the artificial manipulation of the climate to reduce warming rates, has been proposed as an alternative short-term solution. Options range from taking carbon out of the atmosphere through carbon sinks and brightening clouds to increasing the planet's albedo through the release of reflective particles into the atmosphere. While still controversial, geoengineering has been proposed by some as a promising and low-cost way of combating climate change. In particular, so-called 'moderate' geoengineering is claimed to be achievable with few potential side effects or other ramifications. However, this paper argues that the effect of moderate geoengineering can easily be nullified by 'counter-geoengineering, ' and any impactful geoengineering would require a global governance framework to prevent countries which benefit from warming temperatures from deploying counter-geoengineering. In this paper, we take Russia as an example due to its potential interest in counteracting geoengineering and its significant ability to release a great amount of methane, a viable counter-geoengineering pathway in the short term. |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2412.03598 |
| By: | Vincent Chatellier (SMART - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Rennes Angers - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement) |
| Abstract: | World trade (excluding intra-EU-27 trade) in poultry meat amounted to 23.9 billion euros in 2021. On the export side, three quarters of this amount were accounted for by just four players: Brazil (29.5%), the USA (18.2%), the EU-27 (14.2%) and Thailand (12.7%). While these countries already occupied a central position in 2000 (with 79% of total exports), the weight of Brazil has increased significantly, unlike that of the USA and the EU-27. On the import side, the level of concentration is less clear-cut, with 41% of global flows in 2021 coming from the top four players, namely China (12.6%), Japan (12.5%), the UK (10.2%) and the EU-27 (5.6%). In 2022, the EU-27 trade balance in poultry meat reached 2.12 billion euros. EU-27 exports went mainly to the UK (58.6% of the total in 2022), followed by Switzerland (4.7%), Ghana (3.7%) and Saudi Arabia (3.7%). Imports into the EU-27 came mainly, in 2022, from Brazil (35.1%), Thailand (26.7%) and Ukraine (10.7%), the latter gaining market share in recent years. Within the EU-27, the two Member States with the largest poultry meat surpluses in 2022 were Poland (4.4 billion euros) and the Netherlands (1.3 billion euros). France, which has seen its trade balance deteriorate sharply over the last two decades, has become the EU-27 member state with the biggest deficit (-1.14 billion euros in 2022, compared with +1.15 billion euros in 2000). Imports now cover a large share of domestic consumption (42% of volumes in 2022). By mobilizing three complementary customs databases (BACI, COMEXT and French Customs), over a long period (since 2000), the aim here is to highlight the main trends in the poultry meat trade (in terms of both value and volume), at different geographical scales (world, EU-27 and France). |
| Abstract: | Le commerce mondial (hors échanges intra-Union européenne -UE-27-) de viande de volailles s'est élevé à 23, 9 milliards d'euros en 2021. A l'export, les trois quarts de ce montant étaient le fait de seulement quatre acteurs : le Brésil (29, 5%), les Etats-Unis (18, 2%), l'UE-27 (14, 2%) et la Thaïlande (12, 7%). Si ces pays occupaient déjà une place centrale dès 2000 (avec 79% du total des exportations), le poids du Brésil a nettement augmenté contrairement à celui des Etats-Unis et de l'UE-27. A l'import, le niveau de concentration est moins net, 41% des flux mondiaux de 2021 résultant des quatre premiers acteurs, à savoir la Chine (12, 6%), le Japon (12, 5%), le Royaume-Uni (10, 2%) et l'UE-27 (5, 6%). En 2022, le solde commercial de l'UE-27 en viande de volailles atteignait 2, 12 milliards d'euros. Les exportations de l'UE-27 étaient surtout orientées vers le Royaume-Uni (58, 6% du total en 2022), les pays qui arrivaient ensuite étant la Suisse (4, 7%), le Ghana (3, 7%) et l'Arabie Saoudite (3, 7%). De leur côté, les importations de l'UE-27 résultaient, en 2022, pour l'essentiel du Brésil (35, 1%), de la Thaïlande (26, 7%) et de l'Ukraine (10, 7%), ce dernier pays gagnant des parts de marché depuis quelques années. Au sein de l'UE-27, les deux Etats membres les plus excédentaires en viande de volailles étaient, en 2022, la Pologne (4, 4 milliards d'euros) et les Pays-Bas (1, 3 milliard d'euros). La France, qui a enregistré une forte dégradation de sa balance commerciale au fil des deux dernières décennies, est devenue l'Etat membre de l'UE-27 le plus déficitaire (avec -1, 14 milliard d'euros en 2022 contre +1, 15 milliard d'euros en 2000). Les importations couvrent désormais une large part de la consommation intérieure (42% des volumes en 2022). En mobilisant trois bases de données complémentaires issues des douanées (BACI, COMEXT et les Douanes françaises), sur une période longue (depuis 2000), l'objectif poursuivi ici est de mettre en évidence les principales tendances à l'oeuvre dans le commerce de viande de volailles (tant en valeur qu'en volume), ce à différentes échelles géographiques (monde, UE-27 et France). |
| Keywords: | Poultry, Trade, Competitiveness, Volailles, Commerce, Echanges, Compétitivité |
| Date: | 2024–03–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04835283 |
| By: | Maria Atamanchuk; Alejandro Hajdenberg; Dalia Kadissi; Giulio Lisi; Nasir H Rao |
| Abstract: | In parallel with global developments, inflation in the Central Asia and Caucasus (CCA) has exhibited large swings in recent years. This paper investigates inflation dynamics in the CCA and its main drivers and derives conclusions that can inform policymaking. The analysis is based on three empirical approaches. Inflation drivers and its dynamics are investigated through the estimation of a Phillips curve augmented with foreign factors and a panel vector autoregression. The paper also assesses the role of monetary policy in steering inflation outcomes by estimating a local projection model. The paper finds that external factors play a major role in determining CCA inflation dynamics, although domestic factors (e.g., demand conditions, expectations) also contribute. Monetary policy is found to have a statistically significant effect on inflation, including by moderating the impact of external drivers. The findings point to the need to continue strengthening policy frameworks to steer expectations and improve the effectiveness of monetary policy, while establishing adequate social safety nets to cushion the impact from global shocks. |
| Keywords: | Inflation; Caucasus and Central Asia; Phillips curve; panel VAR; local projection method; monetary policy |
| Date: | 2025–01–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/003 |