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on Confederation of Independent States |
| By: | Eck, Bjarn; Michel, Elie |
| Abstract: | The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 marked a turning point for European security. European countries have provided significant military and financial aid to Ukraine so far, but public support for such measures is a critical factor to sustain this assistance. In this article, we focus on two key aspects of public opinion on the war in Ukraine: whether Europeans want to increase, decrease, or maintain current support levels, and what factors shape these attitudes. Using survey data from six countries – Belgium, Germany, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, and Poland – fielded in June 2024, we find little evidence of war fatigue among the European public two years after the outbreak of the war. Most respondents express satisfaction with current aid levels, and a narrow majority in most countries even supports increasing aid, while around 10 percent firmly opposes any support. Importantly, differences in desired change seem unrelated to whether countries have been relatively large or small aid donors so far. Furthermore, support for aiding Ukraine is shaped by economic evaluations and national identity. Citizens who negatively assess the domestic economy are less supportive of aid, whereas personal financial concerns do not have such an impact. In addition, citizens who identify along national versus European lines are also more likely to oppose aiding Ukraine. We discuss the implications of these findings in light of the ongoing war in Ukraine and the challenges they pose for sustaining public support crucial to European security. |
| Date: | 2024–12–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:typvk |
| By: | Lin, Faqin; Li, Xuecao; Jia, Ningyuan; Feng, Fan; Huang, Hai; Huang, Jianxi; Fan, Shenggen; Ciais, Philippe; Song, Xiao Peng |
| Abstract: | Ukraine and Russia are two important grain producers and exporters in the world, accounting for 12% and 17% of the world's wheat exports, respectively. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine may greatly impact Ukraine's wheat production and export as well as Russia's wheat export. Satellite observations have showed signs of wheat production reduction in Ukraine in the season 2021–2022. Considering the uncertainty of the conflict duration, we have designed three scenarios (i.e., slight, medium, and severe) depending on how the war would significantly impact the wheat harvest and trade disruption. From analysis of potential impacts of the conflict on global wheat market under the general equilibrium trade model, we have found that the conflict would lead to a trade drop (60%), soaring wheat prices (50%), and severe food insecurity with decreased purchasing power for wheat (above 30%) in the most severe scenario, especially for countries that heavily rely on wheat imports from Ukraine, such as Egypt, Turkey, Mongolia, Georgia, and Azerbaijan. Considering the role of Russia and Ukraine in agricultural input sectors including oil, natural gas, and fertilizers, especially Russia, the trade blockade caused by the conflict will give rise to price increase by 10%–30% and welfare decline by 15–25% for most affected countries. The conflict would put as many as 1.7 billion people in hunger and 276 million people in severe food insecurity. Food shortages, energy shortages and inflation have spread to many countries like dominoes which have fallen into trouble one after another with social unrest day after day. Our analysis also shows that countries including the United States, China, India, Canada, Australia, France, Argentina, and Germany would increase their wheat production and exports for the reconstruction of the global wheat supply pattern. The modeled results indicate that the conflict-induced global wheat crisis and food insecurity can be notably alleviated if these countries increase their production by 2%–3% in 2022–2023 and unnecessary trade restrictions are exempted. |
| Keywords: | general equilibrium trade model; global food security; quantification; Russia-Ukraine conflict; wheat crisis |
| JEL: | Q18 |
| Date: | 2023–03–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:117700 |
| By: | Gugushvili, Alexi |
| Abstract: | This study examines public perceptions of the Ukraine war, focusing on Russian attitudes toward its economic and political impacts compared to other countries. Drawing on theoretical perspectives such as the Spiral of Silence and collective action constraints, this research explores how sociopolitical context shapes public opinion in an authoritarian country. Using cross-national survey data, the analysis reveals significant differences in war-related assessments. Despite severe economic repercussions, many Russians report optimism about the war’s effects, especially on economic growth, diverging from the prevalent concerns in neighboring nations. Key factors such as gender, education, region of residence, institutional trust, and media consumption explain the heterogeneity in these perceptions. The findings underscore the role of individual characteristics, regional contexts, and institutional trust in sustaining public support for conflict in complex sociopolitical environments, contributing to broader discussions on national contexts and public attitudes in wartime. |
| Date: | 2024–12–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:y8rzh |
| By: | Benjamin Hilgenstock; Elina Ribakova; Anna Vlasyuk; Guntram Wolff |
| Abstract: | Abstract Russian imports of battlefield goods subject to export controls have surged since mid‐2022 and reached levels close to those prior to Russia's full‐scale invasion of Ukraine. Russia thus continues to be able to acquire foreign components critical for its military industry. These imports largely occur via mainland China, Hong Kong, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates, while other countries including Armenia, Georgia, Kazakhstan and the Kyrgyz Republic have also seen massive increases in tech imports that likely end up in Russia. The enforcement of export controls faces multifaceted challenges centred around complex supply chains, lack of transparency and opaque financial structures, issues familiar from anti‐money laundering (AML) and countering financing of terrorism (CFT) frameworks. We propose using a similar framework in export control enforcement: First , financial institutions need to play a role in monitoring trade in export‐controlled goods and blocking illicit transactions. Second , non‐financial companies could learn from banks' efforts in the AML/CFT sphere to implement proper due‐diligence procedures and to ensure export controls compliance. Public‐sector investigations and appropriate fines are critical to increase the incentives for firms to act. Technology sanctions will remain part of the economic statecraft toolbox. The Russia case will test their effectiveness and credibility. |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulb:ulbeco:2013/386935 |
| By: | Natalia Turdyeva (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation) |
| Abstract: | We are considering the introduction of climate policy in Russia under conditions of quantitative export restrictions. We have enhanced the model employed in the article (Burova et al., 2023) by incorporating a mechanism for quantitative trade restrictions. We demonstrate that in the case of deterioration in external economic conditions, such as a decline in the prices of Russian exports, the significance of quantitative export restrictions becomes secondary. The reason is that at low export prices the optimal physical volume of exports only marginally exceeds or may even be less than the quantitative restrictions. Without unrestricted access to global green technologies, ambitious climate policy goals may become excessively costly in terms of economic impact. In the presented model, attempting to achieve a 70% reduction in CO2-equivalent emissions from the 2016 level, coupled with decreasing prices for Russian exports and quantitative trade restrictions, could result in a deviation of GDP in 2040 by 11% from the baseline scenario, which implies maintaining the current status quo in climate policy both in Russia and globally. A more economically viable approach seems to be a moderate climate policy: achieving a 36% reduction in emissions from combustion compared to the 2016 level results in a 4.7% downward deviation of real GDP in 2040 from the baseline scenario. Only 0.3% of this decrease is attributed to the impact of domestic climate policy through an emissions trading system. The remaining 4.4% is explained by the deterioration of external economic conditions, stemming from the climate policies of other countries and quantitative restrictions on Russian exports. In the absence of a proactive climate policy, the carbon intensity of Russian GDP rises, amplifying transitional and physical risks of addressing the consequences of climate change. Essential measures to mitigate these risks involve the promotion and development of green industries, particularly those oriented towards exports. |
| Keywords: | Russia, climate policy, NGFS scenarios, export restrictions, CGE, emissions trading, ETS |
| JEL: | C68 F13 Q52 Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bkr:wpaper:wps125 |
| By: | Afaf Zarkik |
| Abstract: | This paper was originally published on iai.it Europe’s natural gas system experienced unprecedented stress following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Since the outbreak of the war, the European Union has strived to secure alternative supplies, fill its gas storage facilities and reduce consumption. Success on these fronts was enabled by fundamental market changes that the bloc unlocked during a long period of low gas prices over the past two decades, in addition to emergency and diplomatic initiatives launched by the European Commission to seek alternative energy supplies. North Africa stood out as a key partner to secure additional volumes, owing to its geographic proximity, existing pipeline interconnections and natural resources. In this regard, the energy crisis has served as a catalyst to re-launch EU–North Africa cooperation, with natural gas – recognised as a transition fuel – set to play an important role well into the future. More needs to be done in the region in terms of efficiency, declining domestic demand and improved green energy resources, however, if the full potential of this opportunity is to be achieved. A revived EU–North Africa relationship, based on genuine and equal footing, could help resolve future energy predicaments, while generating growth, high-value jobs and spurring innovation. |
| Date: | 2023–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:rpcoen:rpnn_76 |
| By: | Tamilina, Larysa; Ma, Wenting |
| Abstract: | Conflicts generate profound shocks that destabilize political systems and erode the legitimacy of governing regimes. In the context of Ukraine, these adverse effects have taken on a distinct form, referred to here as the "Ukrainian Syndrome." The phenomenon describes the paradoxical coexistence of a strong belief in the democratic regime with a significant distrust in the political institutions that uphold it. This study seeks to explain the Ukrainian Syndrome by examining the processes of institutional trust formation. The analysis is based on data from a nationally representative survey conducted in November 2024, utilizing fsQCA as the primary methodological framework. The findings reveal that individuals tend to base their trust in political institutions on pragmatic evaluations of institutional performance, largely disregarding ideological commitments to democracy or optimism about Ukraine’s long-term statehood in these assessments. As a result, Ukrainians' aspirations for and commitment to democratic governance persist independently of their trust in democratic institutions. |
| Keywords: | Trust, institutions, democracy, Ukraine, fsQCA. |
| JEL: | C1 K4 P2 |
| Date: | 2024–12–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:123112 |
| By: | - |
| Abstract: | Caribbean small island developing States (SIDS) were dramatically impacted by recent global crises, including the socioeconomic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic, economic shocks from the war in Ukraine and the worsening effects of climate change. These challenges exposed the extent of their structural weaknesses, social and economic vulnerabilities, and significantly slowed their sustainable development efforts (Antigua and Barbuda Agenda, 2024). This includes their vulnerability to external shocks, which exacerbates their risk-profile and makes it harder to attract private and international capital flows, notably affordable finance. Strengthening resilience against such vulnerabilities remains a challenge due to several structural constraints. Despite ongoing efforts to achieve sustainable development, progress will remain limited unless both national governments and global partners broaden their development financing options. Thus, it is crucial to align these opportunities with the unique development circumstances of SIDS. Strengthening the international financial architecture to improve access to concessional finance is essential for building resilience against external shocks. |
| Date: | 2025–01–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col095:81194 |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Haiti is facing exceptional challenges. While security has deteriorated steadily since the last 2019 Article IV Consultation, it reached crisis proportions in the first few months of 2024. Gangs controlled 80 percent of the capital during March-May 2024, paralyzing economic activity by disrupting supply chains, destroying much infrastructure, and rekindling inflation pressures. The escalation of violence has destroyed human and physical capital and led to a surge in the number of displaced people and greatly accelerated brain drain. The worsened security situation has amplified Haiti’s fragility, compounding its multiple shocks, including the pandemic, a devastating earthquake, political crisis following the assassination of President Moïse, worsening malnutrition resulting from the economic spillovers of Russia’s war in Ukraine which led to the food crisis, and repeated outbreaks of infectious diseases. The economy is only very slowly normalizing. The first wave of the contingent of the Multinational Security Support mission (MSS)—led by Kenya backed by the United Nations—arrived in Haiti at the end of June to help re-establish security. The new government, in place since June 2024 with a time-bound mandate through February 2026 (tasked with holding general elections), has a window of opportunity to implement reforms that could eventually help restore the country’s potential over the medium and long term. |
| Date: | 2024–12–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2024/333 |
| By: | Wojciech Grabowski; Jakub Janus |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the impact of the Russo-Ukrainian war on stock market connectedness in 24 European economies. Using a framework based on Clayton copulas, we identify changes in the left-tail dependence of stock market returns between the war and pre-war periods and explore their determinants through limited dependent variable models. We find that the war-induced shifts in the market connectedness are significant but not uniform, involving both elevated left-tail linkages (financial contagion) and instances of diminished connectedness and increased market resilience. Such diverse changes can be attributed not only to cross-country differences in stock market volatilities and trade dynamics but also to countries' proximity to the warzone and their reliance on fossil-fuel imports, particularly their pre-war energy dependence on Russia. Our results highlight the need to consider these vulnerabilities in portfolio diversification strategies of international investors, as well as in financial stability policies. |
| Keywords: | stock markets; tail dependence; international market connectedness; financial contagion; Russia-Ukraine war. |
| JEL: | E44 F36 G11 G15 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ise:remwps:wp03602024 |
| By: | Sokhombela, Andiswa Luncedo Lwandile; Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo; Manguzvane, Mathias Mandla |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the safe-haven characteristics of three assets, namely gold, crude oil and Bitcoin, and their ability to reduce downside risk of different portfolios during two severe financial crises: the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC) and the 2019 Coronavirus pandemic (COVID-2019). We examine the left-tail behaviour of portfolios consisting of 60/40 equity returns and bond yield from six G20 member nations by applying EVT, BMM in the context of portfolio optimisation and examine which selection of safe-haven assets between gold, crude oil and Bitcoin can be amalgamated to the stock/bond mix for an optimal portfolio during crises. The portfolios are from three developed countries: Canada, United States of America (USA) and United Kingdom (UK), while the three emerging countries are Russia, Brazil and South Korea. The sample data is from 2007 to 2009 for the GFC and 2019 to 2023 for COVID-19. The findings of the paper show that during the GFC, the addition of gold and crude oil and the combination of the two allowed the heavy Fréchet-type tails to transform into thin Weibull-type tails. This implies that the two assets acted as safe-haven assets during the crisis and gold being the best safe-haven option for all countries. Contrarily, COVID-19 yielded mixed results, all the assets including the digital cryptocurrency acted as a safe haven for only two emerging countries, namely Russia and Brazil, improving both tail behaviours to Weibull-type tails, with gold and Bitcoin serving safe-haven characteristics for both countries. |
| Keywords: | Safe-haven assets; Global Financial Crisis (GFC); COVID-19; Extreme Value Theory (EVT); block maxima method (BMM) |
| JEL: | C5 G11 G15 |
| Date: | 2024–12–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:123066 |
| By: | MUYA, Jonathan |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the impact of geopolitical fragmentation on developing countries amid rising tensions between major powers like the USA, Russia, and China. It examines how these dynamics compel developing nations to make difficult decisions regarding economic survival, sovereignty, and growth. The analysis focuses on the economic, political, security, and environmental consequences of this fragmentation, using examples such as sanctions and trade wars. The study also assesses the role of the USA and its allies in shaping global governance, highlighting the challenges brought by the increasing influence of emerging powers like China and India. It argues for the need to reform institutions such as the IMF to better reflect the complexities of this fractured global landscape. At the same time, the paper emphasizes the potential of regional institutions to address these challenges and foster cooperative development. Ultimately, the paper underscores the importance of navigating these shifts to ensure sustainable development in a divided geopolitical environment. |
| Keywords: | Geopolitical Fragmentation, Developing Countries, Major Powers, Global Governance, Emerging Economies |
| JEL: | F51 F52 F53 F63 O19 Q56 R58 |
| Date: | 2024–11–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122708 |
| By: | Spirin, Victor |
| Abstract: | Purchasing power parity is a widely used measure to compare national GDPs. However, while this measure works well for countries which are at the same level of economic development, PPP is grossly inadequate when comparing developing and developed nations. The best example to demonstrate this is the case of the former Eastern Bloc. As a result of trade liberalization in the nineties, the economies of the Eastern Bloc countries have undergone massive deindustrialization and transformation into primitive raw materials extraction or final assembly from imported components. However, international institutions such as World Bank and International Monetary Fund provide purchasing-power parity estimates of GDP according to which the economies of these countries are on par or sometime exceeding on a per-capita basis those of the developed world. This paper explains, using simple examples, what stands behind GDP at purchasing power parity, and how, using real-world example of Japan and Russia, “on the back of an envelope, ” to estimate and compare the GDP based on a minimum set of publicly available data. It is shown that the well-developed infrastructure, including housing, communications, health care, education, and energy, inherited by the former planned economies, plays a crucial role in their high GDP rankings. Given this infrastructure, income from the export of raw materials is sufficient to cover the basic needs of the population for food and the means of its production, as well as essential consumer staples, and thus to create the illusion of relative well-being. |
| Keywords: | Purchasing Power Parity |
| JEL: | F0 F62 F63 |
| Date: | 2024–11–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122839 |
| By: | Łukasz Postek (Narodowy Bank Polski; University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences); Małgorzata Walerych (Narodowy Bank Polski; Institute of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the role of immigration shocks in shaping unemployment and wage dynamics in Poland – a country that experienced a significant influx of immigrants following Russia’s invasions of Ukraine in 2014 and 2022. To achieve this, we construct novel proxies for the size of immigration to Poland and use them to estimate structural BVAR models. Our results suggest that the impact of the 2022 refugee wave on the Polish economy differs from previous immigration inflows, primarily influencing aggregate demand and, to a lesser extent, boosting labour supply. More specifically, in recent years, immigration shocks have slightly reduced the unemployment rate and, to a greater extent, lowered the annual growth rate of real wages. At the same time, they contributed to higher growth in nominal wages, particularly after 2022, when the influx of non-working immigrants, which created significant consumption demand, was at its highest. |
| Keywords: | immigration, Bayesian VAR, labour market |
| JEL: | C11 C32 E32 J61 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:373 |
| By: | Barbara Iannone; Pierdomenico Duttilo; Stefano Antonio Gattone |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the resilience of Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) investments during periods of financial instability, comparing them with traditional equity indices across major European markets-Germany, France, and Italy. Using daily returns from October 2021 to February 2024, the analysis explores the effects of key global disruptions such as the Covid-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict on market performance. A mixture of two generalised normal distributions (MGND) and EGARCH-in-mean models are used to identify periods of market turmoil and assess volatility dynamics. The findings indicate that during crises, ESG investments present higher volatility in Germany and Italy than in France. Despite some regional variations, ESG portfolios demonstrate greater resilience compared to traditional ones, offering potential risk mitigation during market shocks. These results underscore the importance of integrating ESG factors into long-term investment strategies, particularly in the face of unpredictable financial turmoil. |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2501.03269 |
| By: | Rouhani, Omid |
| Abstract: | In this paper, I review the value of statistical life (VOSL) definitions/concepts, mainly in the transportation context. After examining the concept, I provide a background, discussing how the estimates should be different for each case study. Next, I overview a variety of previous studies globally, focusing on their estimated values. Finally, I summarize a few interesting observations regarding this extremely important factor for public policy analyses. The adjusted 2024 VOSL in U.S. dollars ranges from 0.1 million in Russia to 32 million in Canada; 320 times difference! In fact, VOSL values differ substantially by income, age, and geographical region as well as the sector of concern. This conclusion significantly impacts the application of VOSL for social welfare evaluations of transportation projects. |
| Keywords: | Value of statistical life; Transportation; Health-related costs of travel; Social cost benefit analysis |
| JEL: | A1 E6 H23 H7 I31 O22 R1 R4 R48 |
| Date: | 2024–12–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:123119 |
| By: | Shama Bernard; Ed Cornforth; Patricia Sánchez Juanino; Lea De Greef |
| Abstract: | Economic models are valuable tools for exploring hypothetical scenarios, allowing us to analyse how different economic conditions, policy decisions, or unexpected events might affect the overall economy. In this report, we explore the economic impacts of a zombie epidemic. While zombies may not be an actual threat, this scenario can be used as a proxy for other, very much possible events such as pandemics, wars, or civil unrest. With the help of our National Institute Global Econometric Model (NiGEM), we have developed this fictional "Zombie outbreak scenario" as a metaphor to analyse the macroeconomic impacts of such potential extreme events. In this scenario, we examine the outbreak's effects on the economy of the United Kingdom, where the outbreak is assumed to have originated and be largely contained. By analysing the impact on UK output, prices, labour, and fiscal policy, we aim to understand how such events could reshape economies. Additionally, we use this scenario to explore how recent real-world events—such as the London riots, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the war in Ukraine—interact in our model if they occur simultaneously. |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nsr:niesrp:41 |
| By: | Sibongile Zwane |
| Abstract: | The paper studied the relationship between macroeconomic variables and the returns of REITs listed on the São Paulo and Johannesburg Stock Exchanges between January 2014 and December 2017. The study utilises a multi-linear regression model, estimated via ordinary least squares (OLS), to assess the impact of macroeconomic factors on REIT returns. Additionally, the Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model (ICAPM) is employed to analyse the effects of time-varying factors such as interest rates, money supply, and oil price fluctuations on REIT returns. The findings reveal an insignificant negative relationship between interest rates and REIT returns in both South Africa and Brazil, and an insignificant positive relationship between money supply and REIT returns in both markets. South African REIT returns negatively correlate with crude oil prices, while Brazilian REIT returns show a significant positive relationship with crude oil prices. This study enhances empirical knowledge on how macroeconomic variables affect REIT performance within BRICS economies. It provides valuable insights for policymakers and regulators in shaping monetary policy, monitoring market stability, and forecasting financial risks in REIT markets. Additionally, it informs arbitrage and hedging strategies to optimise returns, while paving the way for further comparative research among BRICS countries. |
| Keywords: | BRICS; Macroeconomic variables; REIT returns |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:afr:wpaper:2024-034 |
| By: | Arynbaev, Janybai; Sydykova, Umut; Normatov, Melisbek; Arzybaev, Askarbek; Arzybaev, Atabek |
| Abstract: | Abstract: This article reflects on the central issues of the pension system in the Kyrgyz Republic and the prerequisites for its modernization. Due to its scale, it seems impossible to reflect all aspects of activities in one study. At a time of political and financial turbulence in the world, the factors of specific socio-economic conditions, the need for a pension system sustainability, and financially sound principles of pension benefits provision become vitally actual. Due to its social significance, the issue of modernizing the pension system is widely discussed. All this makes it necessary to develop a social insurance members’ centred approach to reforming the pension system, which affects the interests of citizens, employers and the state. The current research applies to the national pension system big data research using the ILO/PENSIONS platform in 2022-2023. The research created a strong potential for the platform to become one of the most effective actuarial tools globally. |
| Keywords: | Keywords: Pension fund, social fund, social insurance, pension provision, material support, guarantee, solidarity system, accumulation system, income, length of service, differentiation. |
| JEL: | H55 I38 |
| Date: | 2024–11–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122785 |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Tajikistan has continued to navigate the challenging external environment well. Real GDP rose 8.4 percent during January-September 2024, while inflation remained well-contained at 3.1 percent (y/y) in September. Robust remittances have boosted the external position, with FX reserves at more than 7 months’ import coverage, while prudent fiscal implementation has anchored a continued reduction in public debt. The banking sector remains stable amid steady growth in credit aggregates. Geopolitical fragmentation and regional tensions create uncertainty over the medium-term outlook. |
| Date: | 2025–01–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2025/002 |
| By: | Thiele, Sonja |
| Abstract: | Deutschland liegt bei der Digitalisierung im Ländervergleich mit Dänemark, den Niederlanden und Schweden um mehrere Jahre zurück. Insbesondere fehlt ein System für sichere elektronische Kommunikation, das allen Bürgerinnen und Bürgern offensteht, sowie an breit akzeptierten Lösungen für elektronische Identifizierung Briefdienste werden daher in Deutschland noch stärker genutzt, der Rückgang der Briefmenge verlief deutlich langsamer als in den Vergleichsländern. Der deutsche Onlinehandel ist zwar gut entwickelt, aber in den Vergleichsländern nutzen Verbraucher*innen das Internet noch stärker zum Ein- und Verkaufen. Die Corona-Pandemie löste in allen betrachteten Ländern starkes Wachstum der Onlinehandelsumsätze sowie der Paketmengen aus. Trotz des Einbruchs ab dem Jahr 2022 liegen die E-Commerce-Umsätze und Paketmengen auf einem höheren Niveau als vor der Pandemie. Für die zukünftige Entwicklung des deutschen Brief- und Paketmarkts werden zwei Szenarien unterschieden. Das "langsame" Szenario ist geprägt durch eine schwache wirtschaftliche Entwicklung, Handelskonflikte und ein langsames Digitalisierungstempo bei schwachem Wachstum im Onlinehandel. Das "schnelle" Szenario geht von stärkerem Wachstum in Wirtschaft und Onlinehandel aus, getrieben durch technologische Innovationen, weitgehend frei von Handelshemmnissen und einem schnellen Digitalisierungstempo. Im langsamen Szenario könnten die Briefmengen im Jahr 2035 noch 50- 60% und im schnellen Szenario noch 30-40% der Ausgangsmenge (des Jahres 2023) betragen. Die Paketmengen wachsen hingegen in beiden Szenarien, wenn auch unterschiedlich stark. Die Qualitätsvorgaben im Universaldienst sind mit der Postgesetzreform im Jahr 2024 reduziert worden. Außerdem sieht das Postgesetz angesichts des Briefmengenrückgangs eine regelmäßige Evaluierung des Universaldienstes vor. Die Deutsche Post ist zur Erbringung des Universaldienstes verpflichtet und die Universaldienstlasten werden in der Preisregulierung berücksichtigt. Die disziplinierende Funktion der Regulierung wird durch den im Briefmarkt bestehenden Wettbewerb ergänzt, der Versendern eine Wahlmöglichkeit bietet. Im langsamen Szenario wird das Qualitätsniveau für Briefdienstleistungen durch die marktbeherrschende Deutsche Post eher langsam und innerhalb der Spielräume des Postgesetzes gesenkt. Der Briefmengenrückgang wird zu weiter steigenden Preisen führen. Im schnellen Szenario ist mit stärkeren Einschnitten bei den Laufzeiten zu rechnen. Die Deutsche Post richtet in diesem Szenario ihre Beförderungsnetze konsequent auf die Anforderungen von Paketkunden aus. Briefe könnten dann nachrangig und mit weniger hoher Zuverlässigkeit zugestellt werden. Ohne Anpassungen im Leistungsumfang würden die Briefentgelte für Privat- und Geschäftskunden im schnellen Szenario stark steigen, mit negativen Rückkopplungen auf die Briefnachfrage. Der Evaluierung des Universaldienstes kommt eine hohe Bedeutung zu, um den zukünftigen Universaldienst bedarfsgerecht an die veränderten Bedürfnisse anzupassen und dadurch nachhaltig zu finanzieren. |
| Abstract: | Germany lags several years behind Denmark, the Netherlands, and Sweden in digitalization. In particular, there is no system for secure electronic communication that is open to all citizens, and there is a lack of widely accepted solutions for electronic identification. As a result, postal services are still more widely used in Germany, and volume declines more slowly than in the benchmark countries. While Germany's online retail sector is well developed, consumers in the benchmark countries use the internet more extensively for buying and selling goods. The COVID-19 pandemic triggered strong growth in online retail sales and parcel volumes in all the countries examined. Despite the decline since 2022, e-commerce sales and parcel volumes remain at higher levels than before the pandemic. Two scenarios are outlined for the future development of Germany's postal and parcel markets. The "slow" scenario is characterized by weak economic growth, trade conflicts, and a slow pace of digitalization, accompanied by limited growth in online retail. The "fast" scenario assumes stronger growth in the economy and online retail, driven by technological innovations, minimal trade barriers, and rapid digitalization. In the slow scenario, until 2035, letter volumes could decline to 50-60% of their initial levels (in 2023), while in the fast scenario, they might drop to 30-40% of current volumes. Parcel volumes are expected to grow in both scenarios, albeit at varying rates. The quality requirements for universal postal service were reduced as part of the reform of the German Postal Act in 2024. Additionally, the law mandates regular evaluation of the universal service in response to declining letter volumes. Deutsche Post is obliged to provide universal service, and the associated costs are taken into account in price regulation. Competition in the postal market complements regulatory oversight by offering senders alternative choices. In the slow scenario, Deutsche Post, as the dominant market player, is likely to reduce service quality for postal deliveries gradually and within the legal limits set by the Postal Act. The decline in letter volumes will lead to further price increases. In the fast scenario, more significant cuts in delivery times can be expected. Deutsche Post will align its delivery networks to prioritize the needs of parcel customers, which could result in letters being delivered with lower priority and less reliably. Without adjustments to the range of services, letter postage rates for private and business customers would rise sharply in the fast scenario, creating negative feedback effects on letter demand. The legally required evaluation of the universal service is of great importance to ensure that the future universal service is appropriately adapted to changing needs and can be financed sustainably. |
| Keywords: | Postmarkt, Digitalisierung, Technischer Fortschritt, Szenariotechnik, Deutschland |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wikdps:308080 |