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on Confederation of Independent States |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | This program review is taking place as Ukraine approaches a critical juncture. Conditions of exceptionally high uncertainty remain as Russia’s war in Ukraine continues. Amid continuing attacks on energy infrastructure, comprehensive efforts to prepare for the ongoing winter, including the heating season, are underway. The social, humanitarian, and economic costs remain staggering and have only risen further. Abroad, political transitions or election cycles in key partners for Ukraine may trigger renewed efforts to end the war, as well as changes in the degree or modalities of international support, adding to the uncertainty around the outlook. Despite the risks and challenges, recent developments support completion of the review. First, the authorities have steadfastly implemented reforms despite the war, including enacting a tax package supporting the restoration of fiscal and debt sustainability. Second, the G7 has agreed on the US$50 billion Extraordinary Revenue Acceleration Loans for Ukraine (ERA) Initiative, and is finalizing its modalities, fulfilling an essential component of the program’s financing. |
| Date: | 2024–12–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2024/366 |
| By: | Elinder, Mikael (Department of Economics, Uppsala University); Erixson, Oscar (Institute for Housing and Urban Research, Uppsala University); Hammar, Olle (Department of Economics and Statistics) |
| Abstract: | We analyze the effects of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the partial military mobilization, and the Wagner Group rebellion on a broad set of sentiments in the Russian population, using the exogenous timing of surveys from Gallup World Poll and the Levada Center. Our results show strong rally ‘round the flag effects and widespread domestic support for the war, sustained despite high casualties through strategic recruitment and economic compensations. While it thus seems unlikely that a public uprising will end the war soon, we also find that sentiments among Russians abroad have shifted against Putin, aligning with global views. |
| Keywords: | War; Russia; Sentiments; Rally ‘round the flag; Putin |
| JEL: | D72 F51 H56 |
| Date: | 2024–11–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:vxesta:2024_014 |
| By: | Meryem Gökten (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Richard Grieveson (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, Turkey has adeptly navigated a balancing act between Russia and the West, leveraging its position as a credible mediator. However, Turkey’s geo-economic vulnerabilities and strong economic ties with the West have made this approach untenable, especially given the recent escalation in pressure from the United States. As the US adopts a firmer stance and Turkey starts to distance itself from Russia, the implications for the European Union’s strategy towards Turkey become increasingly important, presenting an opportunity to revitalise relationships. However, relations may sour again owing to stalled progress in relations and ongoing regional instability. Turkey's vocal stance against Israel and the war in Gaza underlines its dissatisfaction with US and EU responses, but at present the country has only limited leverage to effect change. The EU needs to adopt a proactive stance towards Turkey, moving beyond waiting for a post-Erdoğan era, and establish new forms of engagement other than EU accession. A modernisation of EU-Turkey customs rules is long overdue and would benefit both sides. Given Turkey’s geopolitical significance and NATO membership, it is crucial for the EU to maintain relations with the country to prevent it from aligning more closely with Moscow and Beijing. |
| Keywords: | Turkey, EU, foreign trade, customs union, sanctions, investment |
| JEL: | F14 F50 F51 O10 O53 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:pnotes:pn:90 |
| By: | Stukach, Victor; Anikina, Nadezhda; Shumakova, Oksana |
| Abstract: | The paper pursues the goal: at a specific object of observation, the scientific school of the regional agrarian university, to consider the prospects in the context of responding to the challenges of the time, characterized by turbulence of world economic relations. Working hypothesis: based on measuring and assessing the potential of the scientific school, to identify the relevance of research, the state and priorities in the scientific support of the agrarian economy. Assets are completed scientific developments, publi-cations based on materials 38 defended dissertations, 49 monographs, 19 educational publications for the period of functioning of the school. Materials published in the pe-riod 2000-2023 in the library systems RePEc and the Russian National Electronic Li-brary Elibrary. The method of content analysis determined the demand for scientific products, the use of resources Publications that aroused the greatest interest among consumers of scientific products (readers) identified sensitive research for the agrari-an economy form the basis for planning scientific research. Topics of dissertation and final qualification works are formed in accordance with the priorities of the socioeco-nomic policy of the region and the scientific and pedagogical activities of the universi-ty. The significance of the research is that the methodology for analyzing the infor-mation of scientometric systems for assessing the potential of scientific schools, choos-ing promising areas of development is proposed and demonstrated. The work is ad-dressed to research and educational organizations, teachers and students of agricul-tural educational institutions, practitioners of the sphere of production, employees of public administration. |
| Keywords: | Key Points: Problems of Infrastructural Development of the Agro-Industrial Complex of the Siberian Region of Russia, Scientific School of Viktor Stukach, Answers to the Challenges of Time, Turbulence of World Economic Relations, Content Analysis of Research, Scientometric Parameters |
| JEL: | B4 D23 I2 I23 I25 O3 O4 Q1 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122368 |
| By: | Otaviano Canuto; Mahmoud Arbouch; Pepe Zhang; Abdelaaziz Ait Ali |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine have reignited the debate on efficiency versus resilience in international trade and global value chains (GVCs). This policy brief [a] (i) explains the contrasting perspectives of the private sector (primarily seeking efficiency) and the public sector (aiming for resilience); (ii) demonstrates that GVCs are still flourishing, despite some mounting signals of a geo-fragmentation leading to greater reallocation of the GVCs; and (iii) provides recommendations to help the G20 navigate the balancing act between efficiency and resilience considerations. Domestic policy design in the G20 countries and international coordination among these countries is essential. |
| Date: | 2023–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbtrad:pbnn_32 |
| By: | Schenuit, Felix |
| Abstract: | Die Europawahlen im Juni 2024 fanden vor dem Hintergrund zahlreicher politischer Krisen statt: Es waren die ersten EU-Wahlen seit der russischen Invasion in die Ukraine, der Energiekrise und der globalen Coronapandemie, die der EU ihre vielfältigen wirtschaftlichen Abhängigkeiten offenbarten. Angesichts dieser Krisen sowie zahlreicher weiterer geopolitischer Herausforderungen ist es kaum überraschend, dass der Klimapolitik im Vorfeld der Wahlen keine große Bedeutung zukam. Angesichts der grundlegend veränderten politische Lage setzt Ursula von der Leyen in der zweiten von ihr angeführten Kommission deshalb auch auf Wettbewerbsfähigkeit als höchste Priorität. Inwieweit damit Abschwächungen der klimapolitischen Ambitionen einhergehen, ist bislang offen. Felix Schenuit identifiziert in diesem Global Governance Spotlight drei grundlegende Herausforderungen, mit denen sich die Entscheidungsträger*innen auseinandersetzen müssen: 1) knappere Mehrheiten im Europäischen Parlament und Rat für ambitionierten Klimaschutz; 2) die Krise der europäischen Industrie und Wirtschaft insgesamt, aus der sich neuer Legitimationsdruck für klimapolitische Maßnahmen ergibt; 3) viele offene Fragen in Bezug auf sogenannte "schwer vermeidbare Emissionen", die bislang kaum von der Klimapolitik adressiert wurden, z.B. in der Landwirtschaft und der Industrie |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:sefggs:307117 |
| By: | Steiger, Dominik |
| Abstract: | Angesichts der zahlreichen Verstöße gegen das Völkerrecht u.a. durch Russlands Angriffskrieg gegen die Ukraine, Hamas' terroristische Angriffe gegen Israel und auch die Verletzungen des humanitären Völkerrechts durch Israel und die Nichtbefolgung der Anordnungen über vorläufige Maßnahmen des Internationalen Gerichtshofs (IGH) im Fall "Anwendung der Konvention über die Verhütung und Bestrafung des Völkermordes im Gazastreifen (Südafrika gegen Israel)"stellt sich erneut und akut die Frage nach der Rolle des Völkerrechts in einer "multipolaren Weltordnung". Das Völkerrecht ist seit einigen Jahren Angriffen aus verschiedenen Richtungen ausgesetzt. Da die weltweite Förderung von Frieden, Wohlstand und Freiheit nur auf der Grundlage von Kooperation und der Wirksamkeit des Völkerrechts gelingen kann, gilt es, dieses wieder zu stärken. Welchen Herausforderungen das Völkerrecht derzeit ausgesetzt ist und wie es wieder gestärkt werden kann, analysiert Prof. Dominik Steiger von der Technischen Universität Dresden in unserem neuesten Global Governance Spotlight. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:sefggs:307116 |
| By: | Bardt, Hubertus |
| Abstract: | Die Rüstungsindustrie stand lange Zeit nicht im Fokus der wirtschaftspolitischen Debatte. Der Export von Waffen und Dual-Use-Gütern wird restriktiv gehandhabt. Die Ausgaben für die Ausrüstung der Bundeswehr waren im Vergleich zu anderen Ländern niedrig, was die Branche unter Druck setzte. Mit dem russischen Angriff auf die Ukraine änderten sich die Bedingungen für die Verteidigungsindustrie grundlegend. Die Zeitenwende hat zu einer Sonderkonjunktur für die Branche geführt, aber auch neue Herausforderungen mit sich gebracht. Dazu zählt die Notwendigkeit, Produktionskapazitäten auszubauen und auf zukünftige Krisensituationen vorbereitet zu sein. Notwendig hierfür wäre insbesondere eine stabile öffentliche Finanzierung als Grundlage einer langfristig orientierten industriellen Entwicklung. Sie schafft die Möglichkeit zum Ausbau der notwendigen Kapazitäten und ist Voraussetzung für langfristige Investitionen in Kapazitäten und Innovationen. [...] |
| Keywords: | Rüstungsindustrie, Produktionskapazität, Kriegswirtschaft, Industriepolitik, Deutschland |
| JEL: | L59 L64 H41 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkpps:306357 |
| By: | Агеева Валерия // Ageyeva Valeriya (National Bank of Kazakhstan); Тлеубергенов // Tleubergenov (National Bank of Kazakhstan); Конурбаев // Konurbayev (National Payment Corporation of the National Bank of Kazakhstan) |
| Abstract: | В данной обзорной статье рассмотрены основные аспекты, требующие особого внимания при проектировании трансграничного использования цифровых валют. В их числе представлены модели совместимости систем цифровых валют центральных банков, процессы коммуникации, конвертации валют и управления ликвидностью, расчетов, а также комплаенс-проверки и борьбы с мошенничеством. Кроме того, описаны преимущества и недостатки, а также риски, связанные с внедрением цифровых валют центральных банков, описан казахстанский опыт тестирования Цифрового тенге, продемонстрированы примеры существующих проектов и международные инициативы. |
| Keywords: | цифровые валюты, трансграничные расчеты, интероперабельность, комплаенс, конвертация валют, ликвидность, доступ, финансовые посредники, расчеты |
| JEL: | E50 E58 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aob:wpaper:59 |
| By: | Tetiana Bogdan |
| Abstract: | This policy report makes an up-to-date assessment of Ukraine’s fiscal situation and locates the analysis in the longer-term context of the needs to keep the state viable in the current war situation, but also to deal with the challenges of reconstruction after the war and on its path towards EU accession. It studies in detail the structure and evolution of Ukraine’s budget revenue in a time of war and reveals social and economic needs of a war-torn country in the areas of social protection, housing recovery, health care and education reforms, transport infrastructure, energy sector, industry and agriculture. It outlines the necessity to increase public revenue and considers different tax policy initiatives for funding reconstruction program and restoring fiscal sustainability. The study elaborates a methodology for assessment and medium-term projections of consolidated budget expenditure, which are required for meeting Ukraine’s recovery and reconstruction needs. It also provides budget deficit projections and gross financing needs assessments over the period 2024-2028. It shows the substantial foreign financing gaps for 2025-2026 and following years and analyses in details the external and, especially, EU financial support pledged to Ukraine. Finally, it discusses the staged EU accession model in the context of addressing reconstruction challenges and Ukraine’s progressing on the path to EU membership. |
| Keywords: | Ukraine’s economic reconstruction, Ukraine’s fiscal situation, Ukraine’s external financing needs, EU staged accession model |
| JEL: | H3 H5 H6 O52 O11 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:pnotes:pn:88 |
| By: | Allayioti, Anastasia; Arioli, Rodolfo; Bates, Colm; Botelho, Vasco; Fagandini, Bruno; Fonseca, Luís; Healy, Peter; Meyler, Aidan; Minasian, Ryan; Zahrt, Octavia |
| Abstract: | This paper looks back on the 25-year history of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). Since its launch in the first quarter of 1999, it has served as an important input for policymaking and analysis, especially over the past five years, where the euro area has, following a period of low inflation, navigated a global pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and an unprecedented surge in inflation. The survey has evolved over time and provides not only a long time series of economic expectations and forecasts, but also valuable insights on key topical issues and on economic risks and uncertainties. We show that, for each of the three main macroeconomic variables forecast – HICP inflation, real GDP growth and the unemployment rate – the track record of the ECB SPF in forecasting has been broadly comparable to that of the Eurosystem. In addition, its combination of quantitative point forecasts and probability distributions with qualitative explanations has provided useful input for macroeconomic analysis. Beyond analyses of the forecasts for the main macroeconomic variables, there are also two further sections that examine the technical assumptions (oil prices, policy rates, exchange rates and wages) underlying SPF expectations and an analysis and assessment of measures of macroeconomic uncertainty. Technical assumptions are shown to account for the lion’s share of the variance in the inflation forecast errors, while uncertainty is shown to have increased considerably relative to that which prevailed during the early years of the SPF (1999-2008). Looking ahead, the SPF – with its long track record, its large and broad panel (spanning both financial and non-financial forecasters) and committed panellists – will undoubtedly continue to provide timely and useful insights for the ECB’s policymakers, macroeconomic experts, economic researchers and the wider public. JEL Classification: D84, E31, E37, E52, E66 |
| Keywords: | expectations, forecasts, inflation, SPF, survey |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbops:2024364 |
| By: | Joseph E. Gagnon (Peterson Institute for International Economics); Asher Rose (Peterson Institute for International Economics) |
| Abstract: | COVID era inflation was driven by a unique combination of three shocks: First, a plethora of pandemic-related shifts in demand patterns and disruptions to supply caused prices of consumer durable goods to skyrocket. Second, the Ukraine war caused the largest global commodity price surge in 40 years, which mainly affected prices of nondurable goods such as food and gasoline. Third, strong monetary and fiscal responses to the pandemic recession caused labor markets to tighten, pushing up prices of services. This paper estimates models of the components of consumer prices in each G7 economy in order to document the transmission of these shocks. The first two shocks had run their course by 2023, enabling overall inflation to decline sharply from its 2022 peak. But labor markets remained at least moderately tight in most G7 economies in 2024, and services inflation remained noticeably higher than its pre-pandemic level. |
| Keywords: | durable goods, nondurable goods, services, pandemic inflation |
| JEL: | E30 E31 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iie:wpaper:wp24-21 |
| By: | Glas, Alexander; Pavlova, Lora; Schölkopf, Julius |
| Abstract: | This policy brief analyses German professional forecasters' views on the upcoming US presidential election in November 2024 and its impact on the German economy. Depending on its outcome, the election can have a differential effect on Germany's foreign trade policy due to intensive trade ties between the USA and Germany. Furthermore, the USA has been one of the key supporters of Ukraine, providing billions in financial and military aid since Russia's invasion in 2022. Our analysis is based on recent data from the ZEW's Financial Market Survey (Finanzmarkttest, FMT), a long-standing survey of financial market experts and professional forecasters in Germany. The FMT is well-known for producing the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment, one of the most important indicators for the German economy. For our analysis, we first asked respondents to assess the likelihood of a Trump victory, conditional on several events that may affect the election outcome. Next, we elicited scenario-based forecasts for German GDP growth and inflation over the upcoming president's tenure, depending on whether Trump or Harris wins the election. To better understand the differences in the conditional macroeconomic expectations, we asked the panellists which candidate they thought is more likely to achieve certain economic or political outcomes. Lastly, we included an open-ended question on possible measures the German government could take now to protect the German economy from potential adverse effects of the next US president's policies. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewpbs:306293 |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | This paper presents the Republic of Moldova’s Sixth Reviews under the Extended Credit Facility and Extended Fund Facility Arrangements, Request for Modification of Performance Criteria, and Second Review under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility Arrangement. Recovery from the multiple shocks is taking hold, and inflation has remained within the National Bank of Moldova’s target band since October 2023. However, downside risks remain large, mainly related to the geopolitical situation and renewed energy shocks. Prudent policies and maintaining buffers and robust contingency plans, including in the energy sector are needed to address looming risks. Fostering growth-friendly investment and reforms, supported by the EU accession process will help advance toward Moldova’s development objectives. |
| Keywords: | Gradual consolidation; Consultation band; Energy security; Climate policy; Credit; EU integration; EU reform agenda; Natural disasters; Policy commitment; CB governance; Anti-corruption; Letter of intent. |
| Date: | 2024–12–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2024/355 |
| By: | Attinasi, Maria Grazia; Mancini, Michele; Boeckelmann, Lukas; Giordano, Claire; Meunier, Baptiste; Panon, Ludovic; Almeida, Ana M.; Balteanu, Irina; Bańbura, Marta; Bobeica, Elena; Borgogno, Oscar; Borin, Alessandro; Caka, Peonare; Campos, Rodolfo; Carluccio, Juan; Di Casola, Paola; Essers, Dennis; Gaulier, Guillaume; Gerinovics, Rinalds; Ioannou, Demosthenes; Khalil, Makram; Lebastard, Laura; Lechthaler, Wolfgang; Martínez Hernández, Catalina; Morris, Richard; Zangrandi, Michele Savini; Schmidt, Katja; Serafini, Roberta; Strobel, Felix; Stumpner, Sebastian; Timini, Jacopo; Viani, Francesca; Bottone, Marco; Conteduca, Francesco Paolo; Martins, Bernardo De Castro; Giglioli, Simona; Kaaresvirta, Juuso; Kutten, Ambre; Matavulj, Noemi; Nuutilainen, Riikka; Quintana, Javier; Smagghue, Gabriel |
| Abstract: | In light of recent global economic and geopolitical shocks threatening trade openness, this report aims to shed light on geoeconomic fragmentation and develops a rich set of new tools to assess its economic effects and implications for central banks. The report shows that, although global trade integration has largely withstood recent disruptions and the rise of inward-looking policies, selective decoupling between few trading partners (United States vis-à-vis China, western economies vis-à-vis Russia) and for specific products (such as advanced technologies) is occurring. Survey data show that, although European firms are reorganising supply chains critical foreign dependencies persist. A firm-level stress test reveals that sudden disruptions in the supply of critical inputs from high-risk countries would lead to significant, albeit very heterogeneous, economic losses across firms, regions and sectors. Addressing foreign dependencies with broad-based protectionism policies, however, is self-defeating. In an extreme counterfactual scenario involving prohibitive and across-the-board trade barriers between geopolitical blocs, global GDP could decline by up to 9% coupled with an increase in global inflation of 4 percentage points in the first year, with the impact persisting for at least five years. It is conceivable that trade fragmentation will unravel over the course of a number of years, with supply disruptions becoming more frequent and severe than in the past. If this process should ultimately lead to a less interconnected global economy, countries might suffer from increased volatility and price pressures, as shocks cannot be easily diversified away through trade. [...] JEL Classification: F13, F14, F51, F52, F61, F62, E31, E50 |
| Keywords: | critical inputs, geoeconomics, globalisation, global value chains, trade fragmentation |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbops:2024365 |
| By: | Vlados, Charis (Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics); Chatzinikolaou, Dimos (Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This chapter presents the STRA.TECH.MAN–R.A.S.I. framework in response to various global crises currently unfolding, including COVID-19, climate change, and the Russo-Ukrainian war. By combining the dimensions of Strategy, Technology, and Management (STRA.TECH.MAN) with those of Resilience, Adaptability, Sustainability, and Inclusiveness (R.A.S.I.), this approach addresses immediate priorities in today’s turbulent world. The framework offers an integrative theoretical model to guide businesses through innovation and change management in the face of significant global transformations. We argue that our proposed scorecard, accessible and applicable to organizations of varied scales and nature, paves the way for effective crisis management under the prevailing global crisis conditions. Conceptual in nature, this theoretical proposal underscores potential avenues for future research. |
| Keywords: | Stra.Tech.Man approach; new globalization; organizational strategy; crisis; innovation |
| JEL: | D23 F60 L10 |
| Date: | 2024–10–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:duthrp:2024_008 |