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on Confederation of Independent States |
| By: | Elshin, Leonid; Mikhalevich, Polina; Mingulov, Almaz |
| Abstract: | The aim of the work is to develop and test methodological approaches to the empirical assessment of the prospects for regional economic dynamics in the context of disruption of supply chains of industry imports. The object of the study is one of the most developed regions of Russia - the Republic of Tatarstan. The main results of the study are the discovered patterns that reveal the features of the sensitivity of regional industrial complexes to restrictions in the supply of goods from abroad in the context of sanctions pressure on the national economy of the Russian Federation and the strengthening of secondary sanctions on friendly countries implementing foreign economic activity with residents of Russia |
| Keywords: | sanctions pressure; sustainable economic development; region; import dependence; risks; types of economic activity; economic and mathematical modeling; scenario modeling; forecasting |
| JEL: | C53 |
| Date: | 2024–09–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122707 |
| By: | Elshin, Leonid; Mingulov, Almaz; Mikhalevich, Polina |
| Abstract: | The main results of the study are the discovered patterns that reveal the features of the sensitivity of regional economic systems of the Volga Federal District to restrictions on the supply of goods from abroad in the context of sanctions pressure on the national economy of the Russian Federation and the strengthening of secondary sanctions on friendly countries implementing foreign economic activities with residents of Russia. The novelty of the study lies in the constructed models for diagnosing the import dependence of the Volga Federal District regions on the gaining momentum of import supplies from the PRC and the assessments of the potential for a slowdown in the economy of the regions of the Volga Federal District implemented on this basis in the context of the predicted localization of import supplies from the People's Republic of China. A special contribution of the authors to the study of the topic is the implemented analysis of theoretical approaches and models of regional economic development in the context of determining the optimal settings for integration into the system of world economic relations, as well as in the analysis of the main trends revealing the features of export-import operations in the Russian Federation and its regions (using the example of the subjects of the Volga Federal District) during the period of sanctions pressure on the national economy of the sample of 2022-2024 |
| Keywords: | import dependence; sanctions pressure; national economy of the Russian Federation; regions of the Volga Federal District; scenario modeling; gross regional product; risks of sustainable development; economic growth; forecasting; modeling |
| JEL: | C53 |
| Date: | 2024–09–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122706 |
| By: | Elshin, Leonid; Mingulov, Almaz; Mikhalevich, Polina |
| Abstract: | Externalities generated as a result of sanctions pressure on the national economy of the Russian Federation, expressed in the transformation of export-import operations, predetermine the emergence of risks and threats to the sustainable development of the subjects of the Russian Federation. This article is devoted to an attempt to analyze and evaluate them. The Republic of Tatarstan is the object of the study. The methodological basis consists of descriptive and econometric analysis tools that form the basis for searching for patterns that assess the impact of the transformation of import flows on the sustainability of the economic dynamics of the region |
| Keywords: | region; sanctions pressure; import dependence; scenario modeling; macroeconomic effects |
| JEL: | C53 |
| Date: | 2024–09–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122705 |
| By: | Elinder, Mikael (Uppsala University); Erixson, Oscar (Uppsala University); Hammar, Olle (Linnaeus University) |
| Abstract: | We analyze the effects of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the partial military mobilization, and the Wagner Group rebellion on a broad set of sentiments in the Russian population, using the exogenous timing of surveys from Gallup World Poll and the Levada Center. Our results show strong rally 'round the flag effects and widespread domestic support for the war, sustained despite high casualties through strategic recruitment and economic compensations. While it thus seems unlikely that a public uprising will end the war soon, we also find that sentiments among Russians abroad have shifted against Putin, aligning with global views. |
| Keywords: | war, Russia, sentiments, rally 'round the flag, Putin |
| JEL: | D72 F51 H56 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17457 |
| By: | Elshin, Leonid; Mikhalevich, Polina; Mingulov, Almaz |
| Abstract: | The solution of issues related to the study of the processes of sustainable development of regional-industry systems in the context of the transformation of transnational supply chains is a very relevant research direction in modern economic thought. This, of course, is due to the intensifying sanctions confrontation in recent years, which has escalated in the last decade in the world. In these conditions, the development of methodological tools that allow identifying the possible consequences of such transformations both for the national economy as a whole and for regional-industry complexes in particular becomes a strategically important task. It should be noted that this task cannot be classified as trivial. It requires processing a large volume of statistical data, their systematization, and the construction on this basis of economic and mathematical models that assess the degree of influence of the adjustment of export-import operations on the economic growth of regions and industries. This article is devoted to an attempt to solve this problem and develop methodological tools. The main result of the study is a methodological approach that forms the basis for identifying regional sectors of the economy that are most vulnerable to import supplies and determine the dynamics of economic growth of the region as a whole. Its testing made it possible to identify import-dependent sectors of the economy of the Republic of Tatarstan and, on this basis, construct a series of equations that form the basis for developing predictive assessments of the region’s development in the context of sanctions pressure on the national economy of the Russian Federation. |
| Keywords: | region; sanctions pressure; import dependence; supply chains; regional systems management; scenario modeling; forecast assessments; sustainable economic development |
| JEL: | C53 |
| Date: | 2024–09–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122704 |
| By: | Robertson, Leon S |
| Abstract: | Previous research on correlates of the Social Progress Index in U.S. states was replicated among 100 countries where data is available. A multiple regression analysis indicates that social progress is correlated strongly to gross domestic product per capita divided by the cost of living and higher scores on a democracy index. Religious commitment, indicated by surveys of daily prayer, is correlated to less social progress. The research literature suggests that religious commitment leads to neglect of the prevention and treatment of diseases and injuries recommended by science, disdain for scientists, and acquiescence to or support of autocratic government. The trend toward autocracy in several democracies may lead to the deterioration of social progress. Increased global warming and the threat of nuclear winter depend disproportionately on the behavior of autocratic leaders in China, Russia, and the U.S. that neglect or deny the need to curb fossil use and express intent to expand their nuclear arsenals. |
| Date: | 2024–11–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:z3hn4 |
| By: | Rafi, Dilara |
| Abstract: | The Middle Corridor, a critical trade route connecting Europe and Asia, has gained importance after geopolitical challenges on the alternative routes, the Northern and Southern Corridors. Azerbaijan plays a strategic role in the Middle Corridor, investing in transport infrastructure and fostering regional cooperation. This paper examines Azerbaijan's efforts to enhance its position as a key global transit hub to strengthen its logistical capabilities, contributing to non-oil sector growth and economic diversification. Through regional partnerships, infrastructure projects, and improved multimodal transport systems, the country aims for capitalizing on its strategic location, further integrating into global trade networks. The paper concludes with recommendations for enhancing Azerbaijan's transit potential, emphasizing the need for digital innovations, regulatory reforms, and increased collaboration with corridor countries and global partners. |
| Keywords: | Middle Corridor, multimodal transport, non-oil sector, economic diversification |
| JEL: | R4 |
| Date: | 2024–10–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122499 |