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on Confederation of Independent States |
| By: | Simola, Heli |
| Abstract: | In addition to increased uncertainty related to Russian statistics since the invasion of Ukraine, some observers have raised doubts about the quality of Russian statistics. Applying simple analytical tools to detecting irregularities in Russian economic data that could implicate data manipulation, our analysis reveals irregularities and confirms the increased uncertainty related to Russia's post-invasion statistical data. We find, however, no compelling evidence of extensive systematic data manipulation. Therefore, it would be risky to assume that the Russian statistics deliberately paint an overly rosy picture of economic conditions. |
| Keywords: | Russia, economy, statistics |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bofitb:305272 |
| By: | Binder, Johannes; Schularick, Moritz |
| Abstract: | In den letzten Wochen sind in Deutschland und anderen Ländern politische Stimmen laut geworden, die sich für eine Reduzierung oder ein Ende der militärischen Unterstützung für die Ukraine aussprechen. Die Befürworter argumentieren, dass die für die Militärhilfe bereitgestellten Mittel den Krieg verlängern und stattdessen für inländische Zwecke verwendet werden sollten. Dieser Policy Brief vergleicht die (bisher geringen) Kosten der militärischen Unterstützung für die Ukraine mit den zu erwartenden Kosten, für den Fall, dass die Ukraine nicht weiter unterstützt wird. Das bisherige Niveau der jährlichen deutschen Militärhilfe für die Ukraine entspricht im Durchschnitt etwa 0, 1% des deutschen BIP. In unseren Szenarien schätzen wir die Kosten einer Beendigung der Unterstützung für die Ukraine auf 1-2 % des jährlichen BIP in den nächsten fünf Jahren. Die Einstellung der Hilfe für die Ukraine würde somit in den nächsten Jahren zu wirtschaftlichen Kosten für Deutschland führen, die 10- bis 20-mal höher sind als das bisherige durchschnittliche Niveau der militärischen Unterstützung. |
| Abstract: | In recent weeks, political voices advocating for the reduction or cessation of military support for Ukraine have gained ground in Germany and other nations. Proponents argue that funds allocated for military assistance prolong the war and should instead be directed toward domestic uses. This note compares the (so far modest) costs of military support for Ukraine with the expected costs of not supporting Ukraine. So far, average levels of German military support for Ukraine are equivalent to about 0.1% of German GDP. In our scenarios, we estimate that ending support for Ukraine would result in costs of 1-2% of annual GDP over the next five years. Halting aid to Ukraine would thus result in economic costs for Germany over the next years that are 10 to 20 times greater than those associated with maintaining current military support levels. |
| Keywords: | Ukraine, Verteidigung, Sicherheitspolitik, Ukraine, Defense, Security policy |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkpb:305306 |
| By: | Suh, Elisabeth |
| Abstract: | At least since Russia deployed North Korean artillery and ballistic missiles against Ukraine, it is obvious that Pyongyang fuels conflicts far beyond North-East Asia. Yet, the indirect threats that North Korea poses to Europe's security and stability have developed a new quality: Pyongyang is actively supporting Russia's and Iran's security policy goals by supplying ammunition for fighting the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. North Korea has thereby raised its strategic value for Moscow and Tehran. This allows Pyongyang to expand and exploit these partnerships in service of its own interests and to jointly expand and secure supraregional networks for violating sanctions and engaging in smuggling. The EU needs more information and international cooperation in order to understand Pyongyang's practices and to identify and use opportunities to shape the current situation. |
| Keywords: | artillery, ballistic missiles, Russia, Iran, war in Ukraine, war in the Middle East, violating sanctions, smuggling, nuclear proliferation, Multilateral Sanctions Monitoring Team, NATO |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:305242 |
| By: | Suh, Elisabeth |
| Abstract: | Spätestens seitdem Russland nordkoreanische Artillerie und ballistische Raketen gegen die Ukraine eingesetzt hat, ist offensichtlich, dass Pjöngjang weit über Nordostasien hinaus Konflikte schürt. Die Qualität, mit der Nordkorea Europas Sicherheit und Stabilität mittelbar bedroht, ist dabei jedoch neu: Mit seinen Munitionslieferungen für Kriege in der Ukraine und im Nahen Osten unterstützt Pjöngjang aktiv Russlands und Irans sicherheitspolitische Ziele. Nordkorea vergrößert damit seinen strategischen Wert für Moskau und Teheran. Dies ermöglicht es dem Land wiederum, seine Partnerschaften im Dienste seiner eigenen Interessen forciert auszubauen und gemeinsam seine überregionalen Netzwerke für Sanktionsbrüche und Schmuggel zu erweitern und abzusichern. Um Pjöngjangs Praktiken zu verstehen, Ansatzpunkte für Einwirkungsmöglichkeiten zu identifizieren und zu nutzen, braucht die EU mehr Informationen und internationale Zusammenarbeit. |
| Keywords: | Nukleare Bewaffnung, Atomwaffenprogramm, Raketenprogramm, Mittelstreckenraketen, Kurzstreckenraketen, Artilleriemunition, Artilleriegeschosse, Waffenlieferung, Munition, Drohnen, Halbleiter, Russland, Iran, Hamas, Hisbollah, Huthi, Partnerschaftsvertrag |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpakt:305240 |
| By: | Rim Berahab |
| Abstract: | Les fluctuations que connaissent les marchés de l'énergie depuis le début de la pandémie de la Covid-19 en 2019/2020 se sont prolongées, avec une incertitude sans précédent, sur l'approvisionnement énergétique mondial, qui s'est développée au cours de 2022 à la suite de l'invasion de l'Ukraine par la Russie, dans un contexte d'affaiblissement de la macroéconomie et d'inflation élevée. Alors que certains voyaient en ce contexte un risque de ralentissement de la transition énergétique, d’autres y ont vu une opportunité pour s’affranchir des énergies fossiles et accélérer le développement des technologies propres. Ce Policy Brief explore cinq tendances récentes qui sont susceptibles de façonner la transformation du système énergétique en 2023 et met l’accent sur les enjeux des technologies propres qui seront nécessaires pour accélérer la transition vers un avenir plus vert. |
| Date: | 2023–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:rpaeco:pb_04_23 |
| By: | Overhaus, Marco |
| Abstract: | The idea that US power underpins international security remains deeply anchored in today's US political elite. Ultimately, this idea also lies at the heart of US-led alliances, including NATO. But the three pillars of Pax Americana - US military strength, the country's economic openness and the liberal-democratic foundations of American foreign policy - have, in fact, been crumbling for some time. The outcome of the US elections on 5 November 2024 may accelerate or deaccelerate these trends, but it will not fundamentally reverse them. Against this backdrop, Germany and the other allies will have to ensure that transatlantic relations are put on a new footing after the elections. And this is regardless of whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump wins the ballot. |
| Keywords: | Pax Americana, US Elections, NATO, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, international security, liberal-democratic values, Russia, Ukraine, China, Taiwan Strait, military power, economic power, Middle East, geoeconomic thinking, G7 countries, European Union, foreign policy, transatlantic relations, Indo-Pacific |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:305233 |
| By: | Otaviano Canuto; Hajar Kabbach |
| Abstract: | Gender disparities in the labor market persist as a serious challenge, resulting in lower participation rates for women than men. This gender gap in labor force participation varies considerably across regions, with female participation rates consistently lagging men. After some progress during the last few decades, the multiple crises faced by the global economy in recent times – pandemic, the war in Ukraine, rising risks of climate change, and slowing growth after high inflation – have meant a setback to progress in reforms toward the empowerment of women in labor markets. We approach here how Morocco can strengthen productivity and economic growth by pursuing reforms to reduce gender inequality of opportunities. |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:rpaeco:pb_12-23 |
| By: | Alho, Juha |
| Abstract: | Abstract The updating of the Statistics Finland population forecast occurred in an exceptionally difficult circumstance, in 2024. What would be the effect of COVID19 on mortality and immigration? Will the collapse of fertility that started in 2010, continue? Also the war in Ukraine, and the structural change in immigration, had to be assessed for the drawing up of a trend forecast. In a critical evaluation, the choices made by the forecasters regarding mortality, fertility, and the immigration in the first coming years appear well founded. Using tools of statistical time-series analysis, the level of net migration for 2022–2023 was estimated. This can be taken as the estimate of the level over the long term, in a trend forecast. The estimate is 24 000. This is lower than 40 000 that was used in the update. In a comparison to the recent forecasts in Norway and Sweden, we find that even this level is higher than that assumed in those countries. The conclusion is to produce an alternate update that replicates the assumptions of Statistics Fin- land as regards mortality, fertility, and short-term net migration, but assumes that the long-term level of net migration equals 24 000. |
| Keywords: | Fertility, Immigration, Mortality, Net migration, Trend forecast uncertainty |
| JEL: | J61 J31 D24 |
| Date: | 2024–11–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rif:briefs:142 |
| By: | Alvaro Silva; Julian di Giovanni; Muhammed A. Yildirim (Center for International Development at Harvard University); Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan |
| Abstract: | We estimate a multi-country multi-sector New Keynesian model to quantify the drivers of domestic inflation during 2020–2023 in several countries, including the United States. The model matches observed inflation together with sector-level prices and wages. We further measure the relative importance of different types of shocks on inflation across countries over time. The key mechanism, the international transmission of demand, supply and energy shocks through global linkages helps us to match the behavior of the USD/Euro exchange rate. The quantification exercise yields four key findings. First, negative supply shocks to factors of production, labor and intermediate inputs, initially sparked inflation in 2020–2021. Global supply chains and complementarities in production played an amplification role in this initial phase. Second, positive aggregate demand shocks, due to stimulative policies, widened demand-supply imbalances, amplifying inflation further during 2021–2022. Third, the reallocation of consumption between goods and service sectors, a relative sector-level demand shock, played a role in transmitting these imbalances across countries through the global trade and production network. Fourth, global energy shocks have differential impacts on the US relative to other countries’ inflation rates. Further, complementarities between energy and other inputs to production play a particularly important role in the quantitative impact of these shocks on inflation. |
| Keywords: | Russia, Ukraine, China, COVID-19, Inflation |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:glh:wpfacu:224 |
| By: | Anna Burova (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation); Tatiana Grishina (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation); Natalia Makhankova (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation) |
| Abstract: | Currently newly issued loans with fixed rates, excluding loans to affiliates, are used to calculate Russian loan aggregates of interest rates on loans to non-financial organisations, which is generally in line with international practice. The structure of loans is evolving over times, the share of loans with floating interest rates is increasing. Data on the volumes and rates of such loans can be valuable for analysing and forecasting economic trends. This paper looks at approaches to calculating weighted average interest rates on loans to Russian companies with the division of loans for analytical purposes into separate lending segments: by rate type (fixed and floating), affiliation type, and the time of rate-setting relative to the moment of disbursement of funds. We assess the amplitude of variation between the rates calculated using different approaches. The use of a wider range of aggregates can be used for analytical and research purposes to assess changes in certain types of interest rates, as well as to clarify the effect of the interest rate channel of the monetary policy transmission mechanism. |
| Keywords: | loan rates, non-financial organisations, floating rate, prolongations, quarterly projection model, error correction model |
| JEL: | E43 E44 G21 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bkr:wpaper:wps137 |
| By: | Hilpert, Hanns Günther; Tokarski, Paweł |
| Abstract: | The number of digital currencies has increased significantly in recent years. So-called central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), created by central banks, are at the forefront of this development. Combining the advantages of an electronic means of payment - namely the speed and efficiency of transactions - with the stability and confidence that central banks enjoy, CBDCs will surely have a significant influence on the development of international payment systems in the coming years. Work on this topic has accelerated significantly in many parts of the world following the imposition of sanctions against Russia by the G7. The European Union (EU) and China are also engaged in planning and shaping their own CBDCs, but there are significant differences in the motivations, pace of progress and ambitions associated with these projects. |
| Keywords: | Central Bank, money, digitalisation, digital currencies, central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), sanctions against Russia, G7, European Union (EU), China, eurozone, blockchain technologies, People's Bank of China (PBoC), e-CNY, European Central Bank (ECB) |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:305241 |
| By: | Hamza Mjahed |
| Abstract: | The North Sea has been an important energy hub for many European countries for centuries. It is home to many natural resources, from oil and natural gas, to wind and wave energy, making it a powerhouse of energy production. In recent decades, the North Sea has seen significant investment in energy infrastructure and innovation, allowing many of these resources to be harnessed and used to supply energy to much of Europe. Furthermore, the North Sea has become more important for European energy security in the context of the volatility in global energy markets and European efforts to decouple from Russian fossil fuels. The North Sea is thus bound to play a vital role in the future of European energy security, with a large number of projects set to come online in the coming years, providing a significant boost to energy production. |
| Date: | 2023–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:rpaeco:pb_09_23 |
| By: | Christoph Koenig (DEF, University of Rome "Tor Vergata") |
| Abstract: | Election forensics are a widespread tool for diagnosing electoral manipulation out of statistical anomalies in publicly available election micro-data. Yet, in spite of their popularity, they are only rarely used to measure and compare variation in election fraud at the sub-national level. The typical challenges faced by researchers are the wide range of forensic indicators to choose from, the potential variation in manipulation methods across time and space and the difficulty in creating a measure of fraud intensity that is comparable across geographic units and elections. This paper outlines a procedure to overcome these issues by making use of directly observed instances of fraud and machine learning methods. I demonstrate the performance of this procedure for the case of post-2000 Russia and discuss advantages and pitfalls. The resulting estimates of fraud intensity are closely in line with quantitative and qualitative secondary data at the cross-sectional and time-series level. |
| Keywords: | Bayesian Additive Regression Trees, Election Forensics, Election Fraud, Election Monitoring, Machine Learning, Russia |
| Date: | 2024–10–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rtv:ceisrp:584 |
| By: | Zuzana Zavarská (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | This policy note explores key issues in the Danube Region, focusing on labour market dynamics, including the development of digital skills, foreign direct investment (FDI) with a particular emphasis on FDI in the IT sector, and the robotisation and automation of the region’s industries. Covering 14 countries—Austria, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czechia, Germany, Hungary, Moldova, Montenegro, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Ukraine—it outlines policy recommendations aimed at enhancing workforce readiness, attracting high-tech foreign investments, and ensuring the region's competitiveness in an increasingly digitalised and automated global economy. |
| Keywords: | Danube Region, Austria, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czechia, Germany, Hungary, Moldova, Montenegro, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Ukraine, Economic Policy, FDI, Digitalisation, Automation, Labour Market Dynamics, Regional Development |
| JEL: | O52 R58 F21 J24 O33 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:pnotes:pn:84 |
| By: | Douglas Barrios (Center for International Development at Harvard University); Nikita Taniparti (Center for International Development at Harvard University); Ricardo Hausmann (Harvard's Growth Lab); Clement Brenot (Center for International Development at Harvard University); Can Soylu; Roukaya El Houda (Center for International Development at Harvard University); Ekaterina Vashkinskaya; Felicia Belostecinic (Center for International Development at Harvard University); Sophia Henn (Center for International Development at Harvard University) |
| Abstract: | This Growth Diagnostic Report was generated as part of a research engagement between the Growth Lab at Harvard University and the Astana International Financial Centre (AIFC) between June 2021 and December 2022. The purpose of the engagement was to formulate evidence-based policy options to address critical issues facing the economy of Kazakhstan through innovative frameworks such as growth diagnostics and economic complexity. This report is accompanied by the Economic Complexity Report that applies findings from this report on economy-wide challenges to growth and diversification in order to formulate attractive and feasible opportunities for diversification. Kazakhstan faces multifaceted challenges to sustainable and inclusive growth: macroeconomic uncertainty, an uneven economic playing field, and difficulties in acquiring productive capabilities, agglomerating them locally, and accessing export markets. Underlying Kazakhstan’s transformational growth in the last two decades—during which real GDP per capita multiplied by 2.5x—are two periods that underscore how Kazakhstan’s growth trajectory has been correlated with oil and gas dynamics. The early and mid-2000s characterized by the global commodity supercycle led to an expansion of the economy upwards of 8% annually, with a mild slowdown during the global financial crisis. In 2014, Kazakhstan’s growth slowed with the collapse of commodity prices, and alternative engines of growth have not been strong enough to fend against volatility since. These trends, along with growing uncertainty in the long-run demand of oil and gas, continue to highlight the limitations of relying on natural resources to drive development. As in the experience of other major oil producers, diversification of Kazakhstan’s non-oil economy is a critical pathway to drive a new era of sustainable and inclusive growth and mitigate the impacts of commodity price shocks on the country’s economy. Kazakhstan’s growth trajectory demonstrates that the country has enough oil to suffer symptoms of Dutch disease, but not enough to position it as a reliable engine of growth in the future. Development of non-oil activities has been a policy objective of the government of Kazakhstan for some time, but previous efforts for target sectors have failed to generate sufficient exports and investments to produce alternative engines of growth. This report characterizes the relationship between growth, industrial policy, and the constraints to diversification in Kazakhstan. It utilizes the growth diagnostics framework to understand why efforts to diversify into non-oil tradables has been challenging. The report proposes a growth syndrome to explain the constraints preventing Kazakhstan from achieving productive diversification and sustainable growth. This report is organized in six sections, including a brief introduction. Section 2 provides an overview of the methodological approach to the Growth Diagnostics analysis. Section 3 describes Kazakhstan’s growth trajectory and macroeconomic performance, as well as the motivations behind pursuing a diversification strategy to strengthen the non-oil economy. Section 4 summarizes three features of the country that manifest in a set of economy-wide constraints to growth and diversification. Section 5 analyzes each of the identified constraints in detail, describing their dynamics and breaking down the aspects that appear to be binding. Section 6 concludes by suggesting potential policy guidelines towards alleviation of the identified constraints. |
| Keywords: | Growth Diagnostics, Kazakhstan |
| Date: | 2023–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:glh:wpfacu:206 |
| By: | Clement Brenot (Center for International Development at Harvard University); Douglas Barrios (Center for International Development at Harvard University); Eric S. M. Protzer (Center for Global Development); Nikita Taniparti (Center for International Development at Harvard University); Ricardo Hausmann (Harvard's Growth Lab); Sophia Henn (Center for International Development at Harvard University) |
| Abstract: | Since the end of the 1990s, Kazakhstan has relied on oil and gas as the main drivers of economic growth. While this has led to rapid development of the country, especially during years of high oil prices, it has also subjected the economy to more severe downturns during oil shocks, bouts of currency overvaluation, and procyclicality in growth and public spending. Stronger economic diversification has the potential to drive a new era of sustainable growth by supporting new sources of value added and export revenue, creating new and better jobs, and making the economy more resistant to fluctuations in oil dynamics. However, repeated efforts to stimulate alternative, non-oil engines of growth have so far been inconclusive. This report introduces a new framework to identify opportunities for economic diversification in Kazakhstan. This framework attempts to improve upon previous methods, notably by building country and region-specific challenges to the development of the non-oil economy directly into the framework to identify feasible and attractive opportunities. These challenges are presented in detail in the Growth Diagnostic of Kazakhstan and are summarized along three high-level constraints: (i) an uneven economic playing field dominated by government-related public and private-entities; (ii) difficulties in acquiring productive capabilities, agglomerating them locally, and accessing export markets; and (iii) ongoing macroeconomic factors lowering external competitiveness lower and making the economy less stable. Our approach applies the economic complexity paradigm to identify what specific products and industries are most feasible for diversification, based on the existing productive capabilities demonstrated in the economy. We examine Kazakhstan's economic complexity at the national but also subnational levels, highlighting the heterogeneity of export baskets across regions that makes an analysis of opportunities at the subnational level essential. |
| Keywords: | Economic Complexity, Kazakhstan |
| Date: | 2023–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:glh:wpfacu:205 |
| By: | Xu, Shuanglei (School of International Trade and Economics, University of International Business and Economics, Beijing 100029, China); Deng, Youyi (School of International Trade and Economics, University of International Business and Economics, Beijing 100029, China); Nepal, Rabindra (School of Business, Faculty of Business and Law, University of Wollongong, New South Wales, Australia); Jamasb, Tooraj (Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School) |
| Abstract: | Since the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the European Union (EU)’s energy imports have faced challenges, and energy security has come to the fore. Focusing on the EU and its relations with major energy trading countries, we adopt a social network approach (SNA) and exponential random graph model (ERGM) to analyze the energy trade impact of the conflict. We use data from a sample of 47 countries from 2014-2023 to explore the characteristics of the structural evolution of the EU’s conventional and renewable trade networks and the influencing mechanisms behind them. As a result of the conflict and the global trend towards decoupling, the EU’s conventional trade network is undergoing a contraction. Meanwhile, its renewable trade network is thriving, indicating a shift in energy structures; the core-periphery undergoing restructuring, Russia fading out of the core circle of the trade, and the US becoming a key hub connecting all parties. Germany, France, and the Netherlands play the role of important importers as core nodes of the network. Mechanistic analysis shows that mutual plays an important role in multilateral trade; rising geopolitical risks, while posing a barrier to energy imports, have facilitated a boom in renewable trade; economic size and trade openness have positively driven energy trade. Foreign investment, intellectual property rights, and levels of population and urbanization have had a differentiated impact on the two types of energy trade; geographic proximity, linguistic commonality, and free trade agreements positively contribute to the construction and maintenance of energy trade networks. This study depicts the dynamics of EU energy trade under geopolitical turbulence, expands the research methodology in this area, deepens the understanding of energy geopolitics, and informs the transformation of the EU’s energy structure. |
| Keywords: | European Union; Conventional energy trade; Renewable energy trade; Social network; Exponential random graph model |
| JEL: | F18 Q43 |
| Date: | 2024–10–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:cbsnow:2024_014 |
| By: | Hilpert, Hanns Günther; Tokarski, Paweł |
| Abstract: | In den letzten Jahren hat sich die Zahl der digitalen Währungen stark erhöht. Als besonders zukunftsweisend kann das von Zentralbanken entwickelte Digitale Zentralbankgeld (DZBG) gelten. Die Kombination der Vorteile elektronischer Zahlungsmittel - Schnelligkeit und Effizienz von Transaktionen - mit der Stabilität und dem Vertrauenskapital einer Zentralbank ist ein Ansatz, der die Entwicklung der internationalen Zahlungssysteme in den nächsten Jahren maßgeblich beeinflussen wird. Die Arbeit an diesem Thema hat sich in vielen Teilen der Welt nach der Verhängung von Sanktionen gegen Russland durch die G7 deutlich beschleunigt. Die EU und China sind ebenfalls mit der Planung und Ausgestaltung ihres eigenen DZBG befasst, aber es gibt erhebliche Unterschiede in Bezug auf die Hauptmotivation, das Fortschrittstempo und die Ambitionen, die mit diesen Projekten verknüpft werden. |
| Keywords: | Digitales Zentralbankgeld, DZBG, Central Bank Digital Currency, CBDC, retail, wholesale, Haltelinie, Blockchain, Distributed Ledger, Kryptowährung, Stablecoin, Bitcoin, e-CNY, RMB, People's Bank of China, PBoC, Alibaba, Tencent, Alipay, WeChatPay, Apple Pay, Google Pay, token, Clearing, Cross-Border Inter-Bank Payments System, CIPS |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpakt:305238 |
| By: | Anthony Roberts; Emma Casey; Baylee Hodges |
| Abstract: | Prior studies on emerging economies contend increasing returns to human capital has contributed to the growth of wage inequality over the last few decades. However, this explanation fails to account for an important dynamic of contemporary wage inequality: the growth of top labor incomes. Research on advanced economies show the emergence of a wage premium in the financial sector increased top labor incomes, but studies have yet to investigate whether a financial wage premium is contributing to the growth of top labor incomes in emerging economies. The present study addresses this theoretical and empirical gap by conceptualizing and measuring the financial wage premium across the distributions of labor income in the most important subset of emerging economies: Brazil, Russia, India, & China. Drawing on harmonized labor force data from the Luxembourg Income Study, we utilize unconditional quantile regression modeling and treatment effect estimation to examine the financial wage premium across the distributions of labor income in the BRIC before and after the Great Recession. Consistent with studies on advanced economies, we find a substantial wage premium among top earners in the financial sectors of the BRIC which has grew in the post-recession period. However, we find significant variation in size and growth of the financial wage premium because of the variegated nature of financialization across the BRIC. We conclude by suggesting subsequent studies should explore the heterogenous effects of subordinate and state financialization on wage dynamics in emerging economies. |
| Date: | 2023–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lis:liswps:865 |
| By: | Hisham Aidi |
| Abstract: | Considering the current situation in Burkina Faso, the international media is speaking of institutional weakness and state failure in Africa and the role of international institutions and local non-state actors in providing security and public goods in the Sahel. The discourse of state failure and counter-state sovereignty has a decades-old genealogy, but recent work by African scholars has sought to contest top-down Western labels and categories. African attempts to decolonize social science research began shortly after independence in the 1960s. Yet, lately, scholars like Ugandan sociologist Sylvia Tamale have taken the critique of Western knowledge production in a new direction. As French Special Forces prepare to depart Burkina Faso, commentators have begun speculating that the Russian mercenary group Wagner will be arriving to assist the Burkinabe leader Captain Ibrahima Traore in countering a ten-year Islamist insurgency that has displaced an estimated two million people. 1 Once again, the media is speaking of institutional weakness and state failure in Africa and the role of international institutions and local non-state actors in providing security and public goods in the Sahel. As we show below, the discourse of state failure and the rebel/Jihadi governance model has a decades- old genealogy. However, recent work by African scholars has sought to contest top-down labels and Western categories. African attempts to decolonize social science research began shortly after independence in the 1960s, and scholars like Ugandan sociologist Sylvia Tamale have taken the critique of Western knowledge production in a new direction. |
| Date: | 2023–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:rpaeco:pb_07_23 |