|
on Confederation of Independent States |
| By: | Petrov, Nikolaj V. |
| Abstract: | Russia pushes for the "Russification" of the territories it occupies in Ukraine. Its policy is aimed at turning them into a military fortress against Ukraine. The declared aim of the economic restoration measures is to make the territories self-sufficient "parts of the Russian Federation". Their "integration" is by far the largest infrastructure project in current Russia. In the absence of tangible military successes, it is also the Kremlin's most important propaganda project. The Kremlin's actions in the occupied territories of Ukraine are like a second front in this war. Studying Russia's occupation policy is important both for understanding the actions of the invader and for developing action plans for the Ukrainian authorities after the end of the war and the liberation of these territories. |
| Keywords: | Russia, occupied territories of Ukraine, "Russification", economic restoration |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:304321 |
| By: | Becker, Peter; Lippert, Barbara |
| Abstract: | Since 25 June 2024, the 27 member states of the European Union (EU) have been engaging in accession negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova. The EU wants and needs to provide a strategic response to new geopolitical challenges, especially the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine. At the same time, it intends to accelerate already tough negotiations with the countries of the Western Balkans. Indeed, new proposals are aiming to gradually integrate candidate and acceding countries into specific policy areas of the EU. Accession negotiations regularly focus on these countries' integration into the highly regulated European single market, and thus their adoption of the EU's acquis communautaire with regard to the free movement of people, goods, services and capital. Whether the EU's offer of these country's gradual integration into the EU single market sparks momentum depends on how both sides weigh expected costs and benefits, and whether it is possible to develop concrete measures and timetables for implementation. |
| Keywords: | European Union (EU), accession negotiations, Ukraine, Moldova, Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia (WB-6), Russian war of aggression against Ukraine, acquis communautaire, free movement of people, goods, services and capital, Moldova, Georgia, cohesion, prosperity |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:304329 |
| By: | Yves Jégourel |
| Abstract: | While 2021 brought higher prices for almost all agricultural, mineral and energy commodities as the economy caught up after Covid, this was not the case for 2022, with, on the contrary, prices diverging substantially. The onset of war in Ukraine certainly drove up the price of many commodities given the significance of Russia, Ukraine and even Belarus in world production. However, it was the imposition, or not, of trade and financial sanctions against Russian exporting companies and the implementation of retaliatory measures by Moscow that fundamentally determined the upward or downward trajectory of prices. Not all was geopolitical, however, with the global macroeconomy returning to some degree of normalcy in the second half of 2022. The stronger US dollar for much of the year weighed on prices, as did economic and health uncertainties in China and doubts about Beijing's zero-covid policy through December. While the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is expected to continue, these same variables will largely determine the shape of 2023 markets in a depressed macroeconomic context. |
| Date: | 2023–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:rpcoen:pb_05-23 |
| By: | Revecca Pedi; Iannis Konstantinidis |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the geopolitical implications of EU sanctions on Russia for the Republic of Cyprus (RoC), employing small-state shelter theory and foreign policy analysis. It investigates whether these sanctions entrapped the RoC within its EU shelter or facilitated a Western-oriented emancipation. The study examines Cyprus's unique relationship with Russia, underpinned by economic, historical, and political ties, and its recent multivector foreign policy shift towards the US and the EU. Utilising a sample of 35 elite interviews and a public opinion survey of 505 participants, the paper highlights the political shock induced by the Ukraine war and subsequent sanctions, which strained Cyprus's multivector approach and its relations with Russia. The findings reveal a significant rift between elite and public perceptions: elites broadly support the EU sanctions and view them as a pivot towards the West, while the public disapproves of the sanctions, favouring a dual-track foreign policy. This divergence could potentially pose challenges to domestic unity and consensual politics. The study contributes to small state literature by proposing that shelters can be sources of political shocks and offers insights into Cypriot foreign policy dynamics, providing valuable perspectives for researchers and policymakers in Cyprus and the EU. |
| Keywords: | small state shelter seeking; The Republic of Cyprus Foreign Policy; Wan in Ukraine; Russia; US; EU |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hel:greese:202 |
| By: | Kirill Moiseev |
| Abstract: | In countries with a growing number of elderly and a shrinking workforce, one of which is Russia, it becomes impossible to maintain a solidary pension system and a need to switch to a more stable funded system appears. This paper analyzes various scenarios of Russia's transition to such a system. This is the first study on the Russian economy in which an Overlapping Generations Model is used to simulate the pension transition. It is demonstrated that in the long term, the transition to a funded system slightly reduces the welfare of pensioners, and during the transition, the situation of pensioners deteriorates strongly. However, it is also important to emphasize that the transition imposes a heavy burden on all generations living during the reform, they are forced to consume less and greatly change their savings, while also often starting to work more. Such conclusions are made concerning average population cohorts, and the results may not be the same for different groups of individuals within these cohorts. In different scenarios, the pension system transition can cause both economic growth and economic recession, as well as a corresponding increase or decrease in wages and consumption. |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2410.14004 |
| By: | Rim Berahab |
| Abstract: | The volatility in energy markets since the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2019/2020 has continued, with unprecedented uncertainty about global energy supply developing over the course of 2022 in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, against a backdrop of weakening macroeconomic conditions and high inflation. While some perceived this as a potential setback for the energy transition, others saw it as an opportunity to move away from fossil fuels and accelerate the development of clean technologies. This Policy Brief explores five recent trends that are likely to shape the transformation of the energy system in 2023 and highlights clean technology challenges to accelerate the transition to a greener future. |
| Date: | 2023–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:rpcoen:pb_04_23 |
| By: | Rajiv, Sharanya; Akramov, Kamiljon T.; Aliev, Jovidon |
| Abstract: | Poor households are the most vulnerable to external shocks. When Kazakhstan and the Russian Federation restricted wheat exports in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, prices for wheat flour and derived products (staple food) increased sharply in Central Asian countries that are dependent on wheat import (the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan). These export restrictions also increased fears of adverse food security outcomes in importing countries. In Tajikistan, these global dynamics translated into significant challenges given its reliance on imports to meet around half of its cereal requirements. The FAO forecasted Tajikistan’s cereal import requirement for 2020/21 at 1, 225, 000 tons or about 50 percent of its total consumption. Most of this import requirement was made up of wheat, which is a key staple in the Tajik diet, comprising about 54% of total wheat consumption. The country’s key wheat supplier, Kazakhstan, imposed export limitations in April and May 2020. Consequently, despite a good domestic harvest and price stabilization initiatives by the Government of Tajikistan, the domestic price of wheat remained well above the 2019 levels. To unpack the impact of COVID-19 on rural livelihoods and farm decision making, panel data from 1, 200 households in Khatlon province in Tajikistan was analyzed. Data was collected through a phone survey in September-October 2020 in 12 districts of Khatlon province, with a set of households previously surveyed in September 2018. The analysis examines respondents’ perceptions of the pandemic’s effects on their households’ livelihoods and agricultural production, disaggregate by 2018 household wealth quartiles. The analysis is descriptive and summarizes respondents’ perceptions. The methodology doesn’t allow us to determine causal pathways or generalize the results beyond Khatlon province. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19; cropping patterns; food security; households; shock; Tajikistan; Asia; Central Asia |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:prnote:155378 |
| By: | Farag, Markos (Faculty of Management, Economics and Social Sciences, University of Cologne); Ruhnau, Oliver (Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI)) |
| Abstract: | Regulatory reforms by the European Commission have facilitated the integration of the European gas market, increasing interdependence in prices and associated risks across gas hubs. Recent external shocks, including the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, have disrupted market interconnectedness, as evidenced in the literature. However, whether the nature of shock transmission — contemporaneous or delayed — changes during market instability, how quickly price and volatility connectedness recover afterward, and whether spot and futures prices are affected differently remain unclear. This paper analyzes the connectedness of natural gas hubs in Northwest Europe from 2020 to 2024 using the R2 decomposition connectedness method. Our findings show that contemporaneous spillovers dominate lagged ones, even during external shocks, indicating rapid market adjustments. Moreover, while market connectedness significantly decreased during major disruptions, it promptly returned to pre-crisis levels once these disruptions subsided. Regression results indicate a significant link between reduced market connectedness and pipeline congestion, particularly when combined with higher future price expectations. Futures markets showed higher connectedness than spot markets during tight conditions, suggesting alignment with broader expectations and reduced susceptibility to physical constraints. |
| Keywords: | European natural gas market; Dynamic linkages; R2 decomposition; volatility |
| JEL: | C11 C32 F14 L71 Q31 Q43 |
| Date: | 2024–10–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:ewikln:2024_006 |
| By: | Becker, Peter; Lippert, Barbara |
| Abstract: | Seit dem 25. Juni 2024 verhandeln die 27 Mitgliedstaaten mit der Ukraine und Moldau über deren Aufnahme in die Europäische Union (EU). Die EU will und muss eine strategische Antwort auf die neuen geopolitischen Herausforderungen vor allem infolge des russischen Angriffskriegs auf die Ukraine geben. Zugleich sollen die zähen Verhandlungen mit den Ländern des Westbalkans beschleunigt werden. Darauf zielen neue Vorschläge, wie die Kandidaten und Beitrittsländer schrittweise in die EU-Politikbereiche einbezogen werden können. Im Mittelpunkt von Beitrittsverhandlungen steht regelmäßig die Einbindung in den dicht regulierten europäischen Binnenmarkt - und damit die Übernahme des europäischen Rechtsbestandes (acquis communautaire) in Bezug auf den Austausch von Gütern, Dienstleistungen und Kapital sowie die Personenfreizügigkeit. Ob das Angebot der schrittweisen Integration die erhoffte Zugkraft entfalten kann, hängt davon ab, wie beide Seiten die zu erwartenden Kosten und Nutzen abwägen und ob es gelingt, konkrete Maßnahmen und Fahrpläne der Umsetzung zu entwickeln. |
| Keywords: | Europäische Union (EU), EU-Erweiterung, EU-Binnenmarkt, Ukraine, Moldau, Westbalkanländer (WB-6), Acquis communautaire |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpakt:304320 |
| By: | Ugur Aytun (Department of Economics, Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey); Julian Hinz (Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Bielefeld University , Bielefeld, Germany); Cem Ozguzel (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, Paris School of Economics, Paris, France) |
| Abstract: | In November 2015, Turkey's unexpected downing of a Russian military jet in Syria prompted Russia to impose a swift and comprehensive embargo on specific Turkish exports. This study leverages this quasi-natural experiment to estimate both the immediate and longer-term effects of the imposition and subsequent lifting of these sanctions. Utilizing administrative data encompassing all Turkish exporters, we first examine the impact on trade at the firm level, assessing the direct effects of the embargo, the redirection of trade to alternative markets, and the circumvention through other products. Second, we investigate broader repercussions on domestic operations, including firms' sales, procurement, and employment. Our findings show that while the embargo caused immediate and substantial declines in exports of affected products to Russia, firms partially mitigated these losses through trade diversion. Although relative trade patterns normalized post-sanctions, absolute trade values remained subdued. The analysis reveals that affected firms experienced declines in domestic sales and supplier relationships, with temporary disruptions in employment. However, most negative effects dissipated following the embargo's removal, except for some persistent reductions in procurement and supplier links. These results contribute to the understanding of sanctions' broader economic implications and the resilience of firms facing trade disruption. |
| Keywords: | Sanctions, Embargoes, Firm-level Effects, Gravity |
| JEL: | F10 F13 F14 F51 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:met:wpaper:2404 |
| By: | Thiemo Fetzer; Christina Palmou; Jakob Schneebacher |
| Abstract: | We study how businesses adjust to significant rises in energy costs. This matters for both the current energy crisis and the longer-term shift towards Net Zero. Using firm-level real-time survey and administrative data backed by a pre-registered analysis plan, we examine how firms respond to the energy price shock triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine along output, price, input, process and survival margins. We find that, on average, firms pass on some cost increases, build up cash reserves, and face higher debt, but do not yet see layoffs or bankruptcies. However, effects are highly heterogeneous by size and industry: for instance, small firms tend to increase cash reserves and prices, while large firms invest more in capital. We estimate separate elasticities for many small industry cells and subsequently use k-means clustering techniques on the estimated effects to identify high-dimensional firm-adaptation archetypes. These estimates can help tailor firm support in the energy transition both in the short and the long term. More generally, the machinery developed in this paper enables policymakers to evaluate and adjust economic policy in near-real time. |
| Keywords: | energy price shock, firm dynamics, climate change, high-dimensional analysis |
| JEL: | D22 D24 H23 L11 O30 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11367 |
| By: | Michal Hebdzynski |
| Abstract: | In micro-level data concerning the housing market, the apartment quality may be signaled via textual statements or the attached descriptions/photos. It may be done using hard information related to the easier-to-measure structural characteristics or soft information related to the apartment condition and design - soft quality. This paper checks whether the choice of the approach to handling the issue of soft quality of apartments influences the properties of hedonic models and the course of hedonic rent indices. The study shows that hedonic models that account for soft quality have better statistical properties than those without soft-quality-related variables. Among them, the models that include the information on quality extracted from descriptions of apartments prove to be the best. Still, considerable differences in the indicated course of hedonic rent indices have not been detected. However, the paper concludes that utilizing information on apartments’ soft quality may be crucial to understanding the market adjustment process to economic shocks. It has been proven that the price reaction of the rental market in Pozna (Poland) to the COVID-19 pandemic and the shock related with the Russian aggression on Ukraine has been diversified in the quality-related market segments. |
| Keywords: | Hedonic methods; Price Index; quality signaling; Rental market |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2024-214 |
| By: | Isachenko, Daria; Kaymak, Erol |
| Abstract: | In the Black Sea, Turkey has been able to engage in resource exploration and joint security arrangements with its neighbours. Ankara's approach to the Black Sea demonstrates that with the right diplomatic efforts and mutual recognition of interests, regional cooperation is possible even in complex geopolitical environments. The contrast in Ankara's positioning in the Black Sea and the Eastern Mediterranean highlights the potential for Turkey to participate in cooperative frameworks in the latter case, provided its concerns and interests are adequately addressed.tion policy is important both for understanding the actions of the invader and for developing action plans for the Ukrainian authorities after the end of the war and the liberation of these territories. |
| Keywords: | Turkey, foreign policy, Recep Tayyip Erdoægan, North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), Russia, European Union (EU), United States (US), Black Sea, Eastern Mediterranean, regional cooperation, Organization of Black Sea Economic Cooperation (BSEC), United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), Blue Homeland doctrine |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:304322 |
| By: | Ajayi, Victor (Energy Policy Research Centre, University of Cambridge); Burlinson, Andrew (School of Economics and Sheffield Urban International Trade and Environmental Economic Group, University of Sheffield); Giulietti, Monica (Nottingham University Business School, University of Nottingham and UK Energy Research Centre); Waterson, Michael (CAGE research centre and Department of Economics, University of Warwick) |
| Abstract: | In April 2022, consumers in Great Britain (GB) witnessed a 54% increase in the energy price cap, as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24th, which sent wholesale gas prices spiralling across Europe. We leverage high-frequency data collected by the Smart Energy Research Lab, a representative panel containing daily gas and electricity data for around 13, 000 households in Great Britain between January 2021 and December 2023 to investigate the implications. We exploit several datasets linked to the panel data which include time-varying and cross-sectional information. We rely on two price shocks: 1) in October 2021 a wave of energy retail suppliers leaving the industry. At this time over two million consumers on fixed contracts were forced to join a new supplier and pay a variable tariff, and 2) these consumers were exposed to a second price shock caused by the Ukraine-Russia conflict which fed through April 2022’s energy price cap. Exploiting this pseudo-natural experiment, we use a difference-in-difference framework to estimate average treatment effects on this group of consumers and find that they would have consumed an additional 10 percentage points more electricity and 16 percentage points more gas had their prices remained fixed. These estimates are robust to a battery of robustness checks and point towards a significant loss in welfare for consumers on variable tariffs in the early stages of the energy price crisis. |
| Keywords: | Difference-in-differences, energy consumption, energy crisis JEL Classification: L94, E31, D12, I19 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:727 |
| By: | Fetzer, Thiemo (University of Warwick and University of Bonn); Palmou, Christina (Office for National Statistics (ONS)); Schneebacher, Jakob (Competition and Markets Authority (CMA), and affiliated with King’s College London (KCL) and the Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE)) |
| Abstract: | We study how businesses adjust to significant rises in energy costs. This matters for both the current energy crisis and the longer-term shift towards Net Zero. Using firm-level real-time survey and administrative data backed by a pre-registered analysis plan, we examine how firms respond to the energy price shock triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine along output, price, input, process and survival margins. We find that, on average, firms pass on some cost increases, build up cash reserves, and face higher debt, but do not yet see layoffs or bankruptcies. However, effects are highly heterogeneous by size and industry: for instance, small firms tend to increase cash reserves and prices, while large firms invest more in capital. We estimate separate elasticities for many small industry cells and subsequently use k-means clustering techniques on the estimated effects to identify high-dimensional firm-adaptation archetypes. These estimates can help tailor firm support in the energy transition both in the short and the long term. More generally, the machinery developed in this paper enables policymakers to evaluate and adjust economic policy in near-real time. |
| Keywords: | energy price shock; firm dynamics; climate change; high-dimensional analysis JEL Classification: D22; D24; H23; L11; O30 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:722 |
| By: | Andreas Lichtenberger (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Robert Stehrer (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the comparative economic resilience of low carbon intensity (LCI) versus high carbon intensity (HCI) industries of the Austrian economy, examining the impact of energy price shocks on real gross value added (GVA) and employment within both LCI and HCI industries. To illustrate these dynamics, we conducted a vector autoregression (VAR) analysis to simulate the effects of various energy price shocks on key economic indicators, comparable to the price surge experienced at the start of the war in Ukraine. The results show that fossil energy price dynamics can lead to significant economic damage, such as a loss in the dimension of 6.6% in real GVA in the HCI sector one year after a gas price shock (reflecting a possible loss of EUR 10 billion) or a loss in the range of 3-4% of jobs in the HCI sector for individual years after the shock (i.e., about job 50-70 thousand jobs in certain years). We argue that LCI industries demonstrate greater resilience in the light of fossil energy price shocks, which appear to destabilise HCI industries to a higher degree at least in the short run, not accounting for other factors and considering that everything else is kept constant. In conclusion, this study underscores the necessity for policy makers to prioritise the transition to low-carbon industries. |
| Keywords: | green transition; energy price shocks; I/O-sector-analysis; VAR; GDP; GVA; employment; climate policy |
| JEL: | Q41 Q43 C22 D57 E61 O44 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:pnotes:pn:83 |
| By: | Hung Tran |
| Abstract: | Heightened geopolitical rivalry has greatly complicated the challenges facing the Global South. Countries identifying with the Global South now have to deal with the long-standing problem of promoting changes in the current international political and economic system to better serve their development needs, while navigating the geopolitically driven fragmentation of trade and investment flows. Moreover, the strategic approaches that could be adopted to deal with those challenges are influenced by the vague definition of the ‘Global South’ itself. Further complicating the picture is the fact that China and Russia have played very ambiguous roles—siding with developing countries in the desire for change, but representing one side of the geopolitical competition for global influence. Against the backdrop of an ill-defined Global South, developing countries need to examine the various approaches pursued by major countries. This can inform their efforts to calibrate an appropriate strategy for themselves, depending on their specific circumstances. |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbecon:pb_07_24 |
| By: | Peter Parlasca |
| Abstract: | The upswing of the housing markets started in Europe around 2014 even without being hampered by the Covid crisis. However, from summer 2022, signals for the end of the house price bubbles could be seen in many European countries due to Ukraine war related effects supply shortages, increasing inflation and raising interest rates. The down turn affected first Denmark and Germany. In the third quarter 2023 already 10 countries showed house price levels below the previous year.New statistics at the European level and the availability of house sales figures not only in indices for numbers and volume but in physical numbers and the turnover in national currency allows better analysis in particular an earlier detection of downturns and upswings. The development of house prices differed widely between European countries and will be put into perspective with the development of economic activity within Europe.In contrast to the economic developments, housing markets in a small number of European countries did not yet reach the pre-crisis level until 2023 although the upswing of the housing markets started in Europe around 2014. On the other hand, in a significant number of European countries house prices doubled between 2008 and 2023.The data on quarterly house sales (indices of number of transactions and volume) now complemented by additional information seem to be a promising data source to develop projections of the housing market in many European countries. |
| Keywords: | Data Analysis; House Prices; house sales statistics; Real Estate Statistics |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2024-151 |
| By: | Tom Krebs (University of Mannheim); Isabella Weber (University of Massachusetts, Amherst) |
| Abstract: | In the wake of the global energy crisis, many European countries used energy price controls to fight inflation and to stabilize the economy. Despite its wide adoption, many economists remained skeptical. In this paper, we argue that price controls should be part of the policy toolbox to respond to shocks to systemically important sectors because not using them can have large economic and political costs. We put forward our arguments in two steps. In a first step, we analyze the impact on the German economy and society of the global energy crisis that followed Russia’s attack on Ukraine in February 2022. Our analysis shows that energy shocks matter. Specifically, the one-year GDP loss of the energy crisis 2022 amounts to 4 percent and is comparable to the short-run output losses during the COVID-19 crisis 2020 and the global financial crisis 2008. In addition, during the energy crisis 2022 inflation rates rose dramatically and real wages dropped more than in any other year in postwar Germany. There are also clear signs that the crisis is causing severe long-term economic damage (hysteresis effects). At the beginning of 2024, GDP is 7 percent and real wages are 10 percent below the pre-COVID-19 trend. We argue that the German government handled the immediate response to the energy shock well, but subsequently waited too long to introduce an energy price brake in 2022. This failure to act decisively in response to heightened economic insecurity coincided with a strong rise of the approval rates of the far-right AfD in the summer of 2022. We also show that the German energy price brake was an effective price stabilization policy for households, but did not protect the industrial base appropriately making it more likely that the German economy will continue to stagnate. In a final step, we turn to the use of price controls as an optimal policy response to an energy shock within a general equilibrium framework. We develop a simple production model with an energy sector and shows that price controls are socially optimal whenever self-fulfilling expectations generate endogenous price uncertainty in the wake of an energy shock. We also link our analysis to the so-called sunspot literature that was developed in the 1980s as a response to the rational-expectations revolution in macroeconomics. Finally, we use our theoretical analysis to shed some light on the economic policy debate and the resistance of German mainstream economists to the introduction of energy price controls in 2022. |
| Keywords: | Global energy crisis, German economy, endogenous uncertainty, price controls, inflation, stabilization policy |
| JEL: | D52 D84 E12 E32 E64 Q43 Q48 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agz:wpaper:2403 |
| By: | Hamza Mjahed |
| Abstract: | The North Sea has been an important energy hub for many European countries for centuries. It is home to many natural resources, from oil and natural gas, to wind and wave energy, making it a powerhouse of energy production. In recent decades, the North Sea has seen significant investment in energy infrastructure and innovation, allowing many of these resources to be harnessed and used to supply energy to much of Europe. Furthermore, the North Sea has become more important for European energy security in the context of the volatility in global energy markets and European efforts to decouple from Russian fossil fuels. The North Sea is thus bound to play a vital role in the future of European energy security, with a large number of projects set to come online in the coming years, providing a significant boost to energy production. |
| Date: | 2023–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:rpcoen:pb_09_23 |
| By: | Abdelmonim Amcharaa; Hassnae Maad |
| Abstract: | La double crise actuelle de l’énergie et du conflit militaire en Ukraine freine énormément les processus qui se développaient dans l’ère post-Covid 19. Dans ce contexte fragile et tourmenté, la vulnérabilité touche également les chaînes globales de valeur et les systèmes agroalimentaires. La vulnérabilité de la Chaîne Globale de Valeur (GVC) est une fonction de la capacité d’adaptation (CA) face aux chocs et aux impacts potentiels que présentent la fragmentation du processus de production mondiale (F) et l’interdépendance d’un ensemble d’acteurs dispersés géographiquement (I). La production agricole et alimentaire mondiale est bien insérée dans le commerce en valeur ajoutée internationale mais se protège par des normes sanitaires très strictes, des labels indispensables et des subventions publiques. L’exemple des tensions assez fréquentes dans le commerce des tomates et des engrais nous montre comment les barrières de protection imposées par certains partenaires commerciaux du Maroc empêchent le plein accès aux marchés de l’Union européenne et des États-Unis. La tendance des restrictions d’accès aux ressources (eau, fertilisants et technologies, principalement) et aux marchés se poursuivra dans l’avenir pour la chaîne globale de valeur de l’agriculture et de l’alimentation. En conséquence, les économies nationales et les entreprises agricoles et alimentaires devront désormais respecter un nombre croissant de normes motivées par trois préoccupations : 1- La sécurité alimentaire et la santé des consommateurs ; 2- L’utilisation juste des ressources et la minimisation des impacts sur l’environnement, et, 3- La motivation des parties prenantes et le respect des engagements. L’objectif de ce travail est de montrer à partir de la présentation d’un cadre théorique de vulnérabilité de la GVC et d’une analyse en profondeur de la compétitivité et de la durabilité du secteur de l’agriculture et de l’alimentation au Maroc ainsi que de l’étude comparative de quatre industries agroalimentaires différentes (engrais, sucre, fruits et légumes et blé) : - Comment une politique agricole verte et innovante pourrait garantir à ses partenaires des produits et des services au meilleur rapport qualité-prix pour assurer un maximum de bien-être avec un usage au plus juste des ressources, - Comment la chaîne de valeur agricole mondiale pourrait soutenir les PME agricoles locales et encourager l’innovation et la R&D, et, - Quelle serait la contribution du royaume du Maroc, comme hub global des engrais, à la sécurité alimentaire et à la stabilité des systèmes agroalimentaires en Afrique. |
| Date: | 2023–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:rpaagr:rp_01-23 |
| By: | Iwona B. Franczak (Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University, 426 Eggers Hall, Syracuse, NY 13244); Amy C. Lutz (Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University, 426 Eggers Hall, Syracuse, NY 13244) |
| Abstract: | Education has a profound impact on students’ life trajectories.1 Schools play an important role in creating a sense of safety, stability, and familiarity in the face of uncertainty, especially for refugee students including the Ukrainian school-age children who fled the war after Russia’s invasion in 2022. Loss of stability, 2, 3 changes to family structure, 1, 4 and limited access to education can compromise academic progress and socio-emotional well-being of refugee students. |
| Keywords: | Refugee Education, Refugee Students, Educational Policy |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:max:cprpbr:72 |
| By: | Brahima Coulibaly, Hafez Ghanem; Wafa Abedin |
| Abstract: | This paper was originally published on t20brasil.org The developing world is once again facing unsustainable sovereign debt levels that threaten to erase several years of progress on development agendas. The COVID-19 pandemic, Russia-Ukraine war, and high interest rates are the latest in a series of events that have contributed to the recent build-up of debt and raised the cost of debt financing for developing countries. The G20’s Common Framework (CF) for debt treatments is a welcome initiative but it has not been effective. Protracted debt negotiations reveal the challenges presented by new lenders, notably private creditors. Private creditors hold more than a quarter of the external debt stock, up from only 10 percent in 2010, and the cost of servicing private-sector debt makes up more than two-thirds of total debt-service payments. Absent a central sovereign bankruptcy regime, debt restructurings arrive too late, with elevated risk premia and high socio-economic costs. In support of the CF’s aims, we propose a G20-backed effort to incentivise private-sector participation in sovereign debt restructurings. The laws governing sovereign debt fall under a few jurisdictions, all of them in G20 countries who could enact legislation to encourage private-sector participation in debt restructuring. New York and U.K. lawmakers have already begun to propose such legislation. This policy brief elaborates on the deficiencies of the current architecture for sovereign debt restructuring and proposes that the G20 develop a framework to help harmonize and strengthen domestic sovereign debt restructuring laws. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbecon:tf03_st_03 |
| By: | Adam Polko; Wiktoria Jdrusik; Radoslaw Cyran |
| Abstract: | The past three years have witnessed a dynamic surge in prices and rents within Poland's housing markets. The primary macroeconomic drivers behind this escalation are primarily attributed to high inflation, the influx of refugees from war-stricken Ukraine, and government initiatives that include subsidies for housing loans. These factors collectively contribute to an augmented demand in both primary and secondary housing markets, surpassing the current supply. The prevailing trend in the housing market is the dominance of investors viewing housing as a financial asset. In contrast, households perceiving housing as a consumer good face a discernible disadvantage in the current market dynamics.The dynamics within housing markets, inherently confined to local spatial contexts, exhibit non-uniformity. This heterogeneity is particularly pronounced in polycentric metropolises, where substantial variations in housing prices between neighbouring cities are prevalent. The primary objective of this research article is to elucidate the causes and effects of spatial disparities in prices within a polycentric metropolitan housing market. Employing transaction prices as exemplified over the past three years within housing markets of the Upper Silesian Metropolitan Region, the article seeks to address the following research questions: Do housing prices in central areas experience a more rapid escalation compared to those in the periphery? In instances of swift growth in housing prices, do discrepancies between prices in diverse cities intensify? What distinguishing characteristics define areas witnessing the most substantial price hikes, and conversely, those exhibiting minimal increases or even a decline in prices?The search for the reasons for the variation of housing prices in the metropolitan housing market will allow us to better understand the principles of the functioning of housing markets that are located in the immediate vicinity and differ due to the polycentricity of the metropolis. The interest of researchers and practitioners is usually focused on housing markets in the largest cities (in Poland, such as Warsaw, Krakow, Wroclaw, or Katowice) and neglects the analysis of price formation in medium and small cities located in metropolitan areas. Due to their immediate vicinity, transport connectivity, proximity to labour markets, medium and small cities often become an alternative for households unable to buy apartments in the centre of the metropolis. Spatial analysis of housing prices will allow the final section of the research paper to make recommendations for households to purchase housing in diverse metropolitan housing markets. |
| Keywords: | Housing Markets; metropolitan regions; spatial economics |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2024-135 |
| By: | Henri-Louis Vedie |
| Abstract: | Avec un chiffre d’Affaires en hausse de 50 % par rapport à 2022, l’industrie pharmaceutique au Maroc a connu une année record en 2023. Cette étude est consacrée à l’une des trois composantes de ce secteur :la composante industrielle. Elle regroupe 50 Établissements pharmaceutiques industriels (EPI). (Source : la Direction des médicaments et de la pharmacie (DMP). L’analyse de chacun de ces EPI met en évidence un écosystème, amorcé dès 1933 avec la création de Pharma-Cooper. Écosystème constitué, en 2024, d’EPI, en synergie, dont les effectifs vont de quelques dizaines à plusieurs milliers. Écosystème très ouvert aussi à l’international, où 21 EPI sont des filiales marocaines de multinationales étrangères, leaders mondiaux dans leur domaine. En 2024, cet écosystème est particulièrement dynamique, avec un fort potentiel de développement à partir d’un double moteur de croissance : interne et externe. Pôle d’excellence, spécialisédanslaproductiondegénériquesdemoinsenmoinschers, quigénère deséconomies importantes, indispensables à la préservation des équilibres financiers de l’assurance maladie, mais aussi à l’amélioration de la balance commerciale. Pôle confronté de nos jours à un autre défi mis en évidence par la pandémie de la Covid-19 et les conséquences de la guerre Russo- Ukrainienne : la souveraineté sanitaire. En priorisant l’usage des génériques et en diversifiant son offre, ce pôle est-il prêt à relever le défi de la souveraineté sanitaire du Maroc ? |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbecon:pb_37-24 |
| By: | Martin Hoesli; Jackline Kraiouchkina; Richard Malle |
| Abstract: | Although public and private real estate have common economic drivers, the response of their returns to crises often differs in time and in magnitude. Whereas the listed real estate market tends to react quickly and sharply to a shock, the impacts are usually more muted and are lagged for the direct market. Against this background, limited research has investigated whether it is beneficial to combine listed real estate and direct investments in a mixed-asset portfolio and what the optimal allocation to real estate should be during crisis and non-crisis periods. Using U.K. and U.S. monthly data from 2006 to 2023, this research seeks to dig deeper into the benefits of combining public and private real estate in a mixed-asset portfolio in periods of market turmoil and in periods of stability. For each country, we also aim to explore the composition of the real estate bucket by considering the main property sectors. In this context, the paper should inform U.K. and U.S. investors about the breakdown between public and private real estate and about how the allocations vary across sectors. Specifically, we aim to answer the following research questions. Can the combination of public and private real estate generate superior risk-adjusted performance in a mixed-asset portfolio and do the benefits change with market conditions? How does the allocation to public and private real estate in a mixed-asset portfolio change in crisis versus non-crisis periods? What is the composition of the real estate bucket across sectors in crisis versus non-crisis periods? Are there differences in portfolio compositions for U.K. versus U.S. investors and how can these be explained? The period under investigation is of interest as it includes three significant crises: the global financial crisis and its aftermath leading to the European sovereign debt crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the Ukraine conflict and subsequent periods of rising interest rates. |
| Keywords: | Crisis; Mixed-asset Portfolio; Private real estate; REITs |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2024-144 |
| By: | Emmanuel Pinto Moreira |
| Abstract: | African countries were severely hit by the COVID-19 pandemic, which quickly drove the continent into its worst recession in fifty years. According to the 2022 African Development Bank African Economic Outlook (AEO), real GDP declined by -1.5% in 2020 compared to growth of 3.3% in 2019. Africa has recovered quickly from the recession, but this has not translated into favorable debt prospects for many countries. To make a challenging situation even worse, the Russia/Ukraine crisis has cast further doubt on prospects for debt sustainability in Africa. The international community has reacted to these events by putting in place a Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI). To address debt needs further, the G20 has introduced a Common Framework to facilitate debt relief, including from the private sector. These two initiatives have not proven sufficient to meet Africa’s debt challenge. Africa thus would benefit from the introduction of a financial stability mechanism that would work with countries to put their finances back on a sustainable path and help ensure market access. Section 1 of this paper details Africa’s new wave of debt crises since 2010. Section 2 discusses the new debt resolution framework and its limitations. The paper then concludes by setting out the rationale for a new financial stability mechanism. |
| Date: | 2023–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbecon:pb_25-23 |
| By: | Hung Tran |
| Abstract: | The Global South features prominently in the context of geopolitical rivalry and efforts by developing countries to change the current international economic and financial architecture. While there are questions about whether some countries—such as China or Russia—should be considered parts of the Global South (GS) , it is obvious that Africa is at the center of the group. Different aspects of Africa—its potential, its reality, and its efforts to realize its potential—embody the challenges and the prospects of the GS in general. More specifically, the difficulties Africa faces, how it will deal with them, its progress or lack of progress, and the changes it would like to see in the current international economic and financial system to help it overcome the obstacles to development, help make clear what the GS is all about. Africa’s desirable action plan constitutes a comprehensive agenda GS countries can rally around. On the other hand, the various fault lines inherent in Africa typify the lack of cohesiveness that has kept the GS from speaking with one voice, able to pull its weight in international fora. Instead, Africa, and similarly the GS, have been viewed by major powers as arenas of competition for influence. As such, how Africa deals with these problems will offer benchmarks to judge how the GS has progressed. In other words, Africa embodies the agenda of the GS; its progress drives that of the GS. |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbecon:pb_32_24 |
| By: | Heng-fu Zou (The World Bank) |
| Date: | 2024–10–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cuf:wpaper:685 |