|
on Confederation of Independent States |
| By: | Bondarenko, Yevheniia; Lewis, Vivien; Rottner, Matthias; Schüler, Yves |
| Abstract: | Geopolitical risk cannot be measured in a universal way. We develop new geopolitical risk indicators relying on local newspaper coverage to account for different perceptions. Using Russia as a case study, we demonstrate that geopolitical risk shocks identified from local news sources have significant adverse effects on the Russian economy, whereas geopolitical risk shocks identified from English-language news sources do not. We control for restricted press freedom by analyzing state-controlled and independent media separately. Employing a novel Russian sanctions index, we illustrate that geopolitical risk shocks propagate beyond the sanctions channel. Still, sanctions worsen the inflationary impact of geopolitical risk shocks substantially. |
| Keywords: | geopolitical risk, risk perceptions, Russia, sanctions, shock transmission |
| JEL: | E32 E44 E71 F44 F51 G41 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubdps:302558 |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | The Latvian economy contracted with significant disinflation against the backdrop of geopolitical headwinds. Persistent services inflation, driven by strong nominal wage growth amid tight labor markets, keeps core inflation elevated. Productivity growth has failed to match real wage increases, weighing on competitiveness. The economic consequences of Russia’s war in Ukraine continue to depress private investment and productivity, thus compromising further Latvia’s lagging income convergence. The government needs to address long-term spending pressures related to its priorities and multiple transitions around climate change and energy, aging and skilled labor shortages, and rising defense costs. The coalition’s priorities include managing the fallout from the war in Ukraine, ensuring energy independence, addressing social issues, and pursuing tax reform. |
| Date: | 2024–09–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2024/284 |
| By: | Stewart, Susan |
| Abstract: | The Russian war of aggression has deepened relations between the EU and Ukraine. This can be seen, above all, in Ukraine's EU candidate status. Despite the war, Ukraine continues to pursue many reforms, even if their pace has slowed since February 2022. The strong concentration of power in the Office of the President negatively affects the separation of powers. It makes judicial reforms more difficult and hinders parliament's ability to exercise its functions. The war has weakened the power of oligarchs in Ukraine in many respects. Yet the form of governance in the country has not experienced a clear break from the past. Even during the invasion, the authorities are continuing their fight against corruption among the elite. The population perceives some progress, but high-level corruption remains a deep-rooted challenge. Civil society activities have changed both qualitatively and quantitatively as a result of the war and have become more significant since the invasion. Civil society engagement can be fostered with the help of returning Ukrainian migrants and through the involvement of Ukrainians abroad. Ukraine's municipalities will play a key role in reconstruction, or are doing so already. To ensure that reconstruction is successful in all its dimensions, municipalities should continuously be involved in the mechanisms and processes currently being developed. In order to meaningfully intensify Ukraine-EU relations, it is essential that rule of law be expanded and consolidated, not only in Ukraine, but also in the EU and its member states. |
| Keywords: | Russian war of aggression, EU, Ukraine, Office of the President, separation of powers, judicial reforms, power of oligarchs, corruption among the elite, civil society engagement, municipalities, reconstruction, rule of law |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swprps:302553 |
| By: | Agustín Casas (Universidad CUNEF); Federico Curci (Universidad CUNEF) |
| Abstract: | We exploit the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine as a shock to the anti-Russia attitudes in Spain. We collect data from multiple sources: the Spanish NATO referendumof 1986, monthly public opinion surveys with voting and pro-war attitudes, and the universe of political speeches in the Spanish Congress. Using different empirical strategies we robustly identify the effect of the invasion on domestic politics. The three main results are the following: we show that the Russia-Ukraine conflict increased by around 5 percentage points the current intention to vote for the main center-right party (Partido Popular–PP) among the individuals in the municipalities that strongly supported NATO in the 1986 referendum. Similarly, in those municipalities, individuals have lower “sympathy” for Russia and a stronger perception of the country as a military threat. Finally, the increase in the voting intention for the PP goes hand in hand with the legislators’ narrative in Congress: after the invasion, PP legislators are more likely to mention Russia in their speeches, and when they do, they talk more negatively about it. |
| Keywords: | Public Opinion, International Organizations, NATO, Russia, Ukraine |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aoz:wpaper:337 |
| By: | Simona Franguloiu (Transilvania University Brașov, Romania) |
| Abstract: | Given the intensification of the fight against terrorism and also the obligation to respect the fundamental rights and freedoms of suspects or accused persons in criminal proceedings, including those involving requests for judicial cooperation, the analysis of the optional grounds for extradition shows that they arise whenever, as a result of surrender, the extraditable person’s situation risks being substantially adversely affected, disregarding the factors giving rise to such a risk, such as, for example, the person’s age or state of health, without, however, limiting the impediments to extradition to the latter two elements. Consequently, it is necessary for the court dealing with the extradition request to identify all the circumstances and risk factors relevant to the incidence of the optional grounds for refusal of extradition by examining all the relevant information, including the objective situation existing in the requesting State. In this context, data showing the existence of a significant risk as described by repeated assessments by competent bodies, which point to the violation of fundamental human rights in the requesting State and/or the subjection of the extraditable person to inhuman or degrading treatment, may be considered. |
| Keywords: | extradition, impediments, terrorism, military conflict, fundamental human rights, inhuman treatment |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:raiswp:0379 |
| By: | Yusuf, Tayo |
| Abstract: | The study explores the circumvention of sanctions by Russia using the “Dark Fleet and Gray Fleet”. The research was premised on the rationale that the sanctions imposed by the USA and its allies has only not had its intended effects, studies shows that the Russian economy has weathered the storm and is on an upward trajectory. The study showed how the Russian state along with its collaborators have been able to enlist deficient tankers with obscured ownership to transport oil and fuel the ongoing war with Ukraine . The paper recommends ways by which the United States and its Western allies can collaborate to ensure sanctions are far reaching and fit for purpose. |
| Keywords: | Sanctions, Evasion, Dark Fleet, Gray Fleet, Russia, USA. Ukraine |
| JEL: | K00 Z00 |
| Date: | 2024–08–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:121829 |
| By: | Simone Boccaletti; Paolo Maranzano; Caterina Morelli; Elisa Ossola |
| Abstract: | Since the Paris Agreement of 2015, firms have been asked to enhance their commitment to ethical, environmental, and social responsibility by many different stakeholders. This movement seeks, alongside minimum required financial returns, positive contributions to the planet and society as a whole. However, these types of practices and investments are threatened by increased geopolitical risks, such as the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, given the interconnectedness between political events and responsible investing. In this paper, we analyze a large worldwide cross-section of stock price reactions to the Ukraine-Russia conflict, specifically differentiating companies by country, industry, and ESG characteristics. By employing an event study methodology approach on more than 17 thousand firms, the empirical analysis unveils, on average, a negative stock market reaction in the days around the event. Nonetheless, different patterns of stock market response are identified, most of which are country-sector specific. We also demonstrate that ESG performance seems to be a moderating factor, as firms with higher industry-adjusted ESG scores obtain less negative CARs. |
| Keywords: | Event Study, ESG, Russia-Ukraine Conflict, Stock Market Performance |
| JEL: | F51 G14 G15 G32 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mib:wpaper:544 |
| By: | Mishra, Siddharth |
| Abstract: | Nearly two years after the onset of the conflict in Ukraine, this report provides a comprehensive overview of the current state of the Russian economy. The focus lies on fiscal conditions, external balances, and the impact of Western sanctions on Russia’s trade relations with the European Union and select third countries. Despite heavy military expenditures, Russia managed to keep last year’s fiscal deficit in check. The primary source of coverage was the sovereign National Welfare Fund. Notably, EU exports of economically critical (EC) goods and common high-priority (CHP) items to Russia have virtually ceased due to the effectiveness of the sanctions in preventing direct exports. However, third countries—such as China, Hong Kong, Turkey, and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS)—have stepped in and increased their market share. These countries now serve as Russia’s primary suppliers for missing EC goods and CHP items. Our findings indicate a significant likelihood of sanctions evasion through CIS countries like Armenia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan. Although the evasion is less pronounced via Turkey and China, it remains a notable concern. |
| Keywords: | sovereign fund, common high priority items, trade sanctions, sanctions evasion, economically critically goods, energy sanctions |
| JEL: | F1 F3 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:121859 |
| By: | Flach, Lisandra; Heiland, Inga; Larch, Mario; Steininger, Marina; Teti, Feodora A. |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates the effects of sanctions on Russia between 2014 and 2019 and the resulting countersanctions. We estimate their impact on trade in a gravity framework, allowing for treatment heterogeneity among pairs and sectors, and use the estimated elasticities in a general equilibrium analysis. We find that the sanctions decreased trade with Russia in key sectors, translating to a loss in real income in Russia by 0.3%. Full decoupling of the EU and its allies from Russia would increase this effect to over 4%. Our results emphasize the role of deep sanctions as a foreign policy instrument and international cooperation. |
| Keywords: | general equilibrium, sanctions, structural gravity, treatment heterogeneity |
| JEL: | F1 F13 F14 F5 F51 H5 N4 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkie:302103 |
| By: | Anton Grui (Charles University, National Bank of Ukraine) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, I study Ukraine´s heterogeneous and time-variant pass-through from the money market interest rate to bank deposit and lending rates. I utilize a new panel dataset containing individual banks´ characteristics and prudential indicators over 2019-2023, a period comprising the full-scale Russian invasion. First, using TVPARDL models, I reveal that during the invasion, the pass-through diminished for all examined bank products. It is also weaker to deposits in times of monetary policy tightening. Second, using panel regressions, I show how banks´ characteristics and prudential indicators influence the transmission. Their impacts are asymmetric during monetary policy tightening and loosening. Overall, I track wartime interest rate pass-through for practical monetary policy purposes and contribute to the topic of interactions between monetary and prudential policies. |
| Keywords: | monetary policy transmission mechanism, interest rate pass-through, wartime economy |
| JEL: | C54 E43 E52 G21 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2024_33 |
| By: | Elena Korchmina (University of Bologna); Mikołaj Malinowski (Groningen University) |
| Abstract: | We measure pre- and post-tax income inequality in Moscow Province in 1811. We collect new data on incomes for 7, 399 asset-holding households, including all registered aristocrats and merchants. We estimate the average incomes of 21 additional social groups using financial records from government and private businesses. Combining this data, we construct a social table and measure top-tier income concentration, Gini coefficient, and the Extraction Ratio. Our findings reveal that serfdom resulted in high inequality and extraction levels as well as low social mobility in spite of low levels of enforcement by the state. We compare our results with those for 1904 and find that, in spite despite emancipation, inequality remained high during the 19th century. Those findings are emblematic of deep historical roots and the persistence of high inequality levels in Russia. |
| Keywords: | Russian Empire, Wealth, Income, Inequality, Pre-Industrial World |
| JEL: | N00 N13 N33 J16 D63 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0266 |
| By: | Martin, Ertl (Institute for Advanced Studies Vienna, Austria); Fortin, Ines (Institute for Advanced Studies Vienna, Austria); Hlouskova, Jaroslava (Institute for Advanced Studies Vienna, Austria); Koch, Sebastian P. (Institute for Advanced Studies Vienna, Austria); Kunst, Robert M. (Institute for Advanced Studies Vienna, Austria); Sögner, Leopold (Institute for Advanced Studies Vienna, Austria and Vienna Graduate School of Finance (VGSF)) |
| Abstract: | Recently, many countries were hit by a series of macroeconomic shocks, most notably as a consequence of the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion in Ukraine, raising inflation rates to multi-decade highs and suspending well-documented macroeconomic relationships. To capture these tail events, we propose a mixed-frequency Bayesian vector autoregressive (BVAR) model with t-distributed innovations or with stochastic volatility. While inflation, industrial production, oil and gas prices are available at monthly frequencies, real gross domestic product (GDP) is observed at a quarterly frequency. Thus, we apply a mixed-frequency framework using the forward-filtering-backward-sampling algorithm to generate monthly real GDP growth rates. We forecast inflation in those euro area countries which extensively import energy from Russia and therefore have been heavily exposed to the recent oil and gas price shocks. To measure the forecast performance of our mixed-frequency BVAR model, we compare these inflation forecasts with those generated by a battery of competing inflation forecasting models. The proposed BVAR models dominate the competition for all countries in terms of the log predictive density score. |
| Keywords: | Bayesian VAR, mixed-frequency, forward-filtering-backward-sampling, inflation forecasting |
| JEL: | C5 E3 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ihs:ihswps:number56 |
| By: | Sid Ahmed Hamdani; Rami Shabaneh (King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the role of the Middle East and Africa (MEA) in supplying liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Europe in the context of sustained Russian gas pipeline disruptions. |
| Keywords: | Energy Trade |
| Date: | 2024–05–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:prc:dpaper:ks--2024-dp12 |
| By: | Bastian von Beschwitz |
| Abstract: | The international role of the Chinese renminbi has received increased attention recently as Chinese authorities push for increased international usage of the renminbi and Western sanctions on Russia potentially increase renminbi attractiveness. Some newspaper article headlines even imply that the renminbi is about to rival the U.S. dollar as the world's dominant international currency. |
| Date: | 2024–08–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfn:2024-08-30-3 |
| By: | Krüger, Tinka; Hoffmann, Stefan; Nibat, Ipek N.; Mai, Robert; Trendel, Olivier; Görg, Holger; Lasarov, Wassili |
| Abstract: | In times of uncertainty, the study of consumer animosity and how it affects anti-consumption behavior becomes more important for both academics and practitioners. This study focuses on the social nature of boycotts and contributes to the literature by analyzing the influence of normative components. The paper introduces and empirically validates the concept of social animosity as a moderator of animosity's negative effect on product judgments and boycotts. The cross-country study uses data from six countries to measure animosity effects on two target countries: Russia and the U.S. Results confirm that consumers' social animosity influences how animosity shapes their boycott intentions. |
| Keywords: | Consumer animosity, Boycott, Boycott, Anti-consumption, Social animosity, Ethnocentrism |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkie:302042 |
| By: | Callahan, William A. |
| Abstract: | While many use rational IR theory to explain Chinese foreign policy behavior, this paper follows global IR to employ interpretivist theory to examine how Chinese elites understand their country's role in the world. In particular, it explores the Chinese global order ideas of socialism, tradition, and nation through a comparative analysis of how they work in China-Russia relations, especially after China's 20th Communist Party Congress in 2022. The first section presents a critical analysis of the realist understanding of the China-Russia-U.S. strategic triangle. It argues that the socialist concept of "united front work"better explains Chinese (and Russian) policy in terms of short-term "tactical triangles."To probe China's long-term global order ideas, the second section explores narratives of tradition to examine the concentric circles model of global order seen in Chinese tianxia and Russian Eurasianism. To understand these competing Russocentric and Sinocentric global orders, the third section explores how each country's official historiography highlights narratives of the nation and especially how national rejuvenation requires correcting the "national humiliation"of lost territories. Rather than see these narratives in a linear chronological history - i.e., from tradition to socialism to nationalism - this paper considers how they overlap in socialism, tradition, and nation, a non-linear dynamic triad of global order ideas. It concludes first that further research is necessary to examine the interrelation of these three narratives: while nation and tradition are often employed to support the overarching narrative of socialism in recent years, this could certainly change. The conclusion then argues that while these narratives may be coherent theoretically, they have not been very successful in achieving Beijing and Moscow's foreign policy objectives. |
| Keywords: | China; interpretivism; global order; socialism; foreign affairs; Russia |
| JEL: | B14 B24 P2 P3 |
| Date: | 2023–06–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:124884 |
| By: | Bukvić, Rajko |
| Abstract: | Russian. В статье рассматривается проблема определения степени монополизации страхового сектора Сербии (без Косово и Метохии) в период 2010-2023 гг. Исследование проведено на основе данных о совокупной страховой премии страховых компаний, согласно которым были рассчитаны обичный коэффициент концентрации рынка и коэффициент Хиршмана-Херфиндаля, как наиболее популярные и наиболее часто используемые меры концентрации. Их значения показывают относительно высокий уровень концентрации, но без четких тенденций в ее движении и с минимальным снижением в целом. На основе эквивалентного числа как обратного значения коэффициента Хиршмана-Херфиндаля был предложен индекс, или коэффициент предела монополизации рынка, показывающий степень монополизации данного рынка. Его значения в наблюдаемый период колеблются примерно от 75 до 60 %, с чёткой тенденцией к снижению, значительно более интенсивному, чем минимальное снижение значений коэффициентов концентрации. Это показывает, что влияние монополистических (и олигополистических) структур на страховом рынке Сербии в данный период снижается и что он становится все более конкурентным, несмотря на уменьшение числа страховых компаний в первой половине наблюдаемого периода и их неизменном количестве с 2018 года. English. This article deals with the matter of determining the level of monopolization in the insurance sector of Serbia (excluding Kosovo and Metohia) during the period 2010–2023. The basis of the research were data on the total insurance premium of insurance companies, for which we calculated the market concentration coefficient and the Hirschman-Herfindahl Index (HHI), as the most popular and most commonly used measures of concentration. Their values show a (relatively) high level of concentration, but without clear tendencies in its movement, and with minimal decline overall. Based on the equivalent number, as the reciprocal (inverse) value of the HHI coefficient, an index called the monopoly market ratio or boundary index of market monopolization was proposed, showing the degree to which the market is monopolized. The values of this index during the observed period range from around 75 to 60, with a clear downward tendency, significantly more intense than the minimal decline in the concentration coefficient values. This indicates that the insurance market in Serbia is reducing the influence of monopolistic (and oligopolistic) structures during the given period and is becoming increasingly competitive, despite the decrease in the number of insurance companies in the first half of the observed period and their unaltered number since 2018. |
| Keywords: | монополизация, концентрация, конкуренция, страховое дело, Сербия, показатели, рыночные доли, число компаний, эквивалентное число, monopolization, concentration, competition, insurance, Serbia, indicators, market shares, number of companies, equivalent number |
| JEL: | C38 D43 G22 L11 L84 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:121940 |
| By: | I. Abid; R. Benkraiem (Audencia Business School); H. Mzoughi; C. Urom |
| Abstract: | Considering various critical periods including the COVID-19 pandemic and the ongoing Russian-Ukraine war, this paper investigates the dynamics of extreme spillover effects from the crude oil market to the financial markets of major oil-exporting countries. With the increased integration of global financial systems, oil market fluctuations can have far-reaching implications for economies that are heavily reliant on oil exports. We employ a wavelet approach to explore the co-movement and lead-lag relationships between the oil market and the financial markets of the considered countries. Next, we follow the newly introduced frequency-based connectedness approach of Hanif et al. (2023) to explore the dynamic connectedness and risk transmission among these markets. First, results from the wavelet coherency technique show that the degree of co-movement during the Russia-Ukraine war was significantly lower than it was under both the pre-crises and COVID-19 pandemic periods as shown by fewer regions with warmer colors (red), which show significant dependence at the 5% level, especially for Canada. Secondly, the dynamic connectedness of these markets was largely driven by long-term dynamics during the Russia-Ukraine crisis period, unlike the short-term driven connectedness observed during the COVID-19 pandemic. The average degree of connectedness at high frequencies (short-term) forms a smaller proportion of the average level of connectedness at low frequencies (long-term), indicating a stronger long-term influence of the crisis on the interconnectedness of these markets. Additionally, we find that Canada and the United States were the major net transmitters of shocks to the network during the conflict period, while Iraq exhibited the strongest level of idiosyncratic shocks. Interestingly, the crude oil market was observed to send stronger shocks to the network at the onset of the war, with the impact gradually diminishing as the conflict progressed. Our study provides valuable insights for policymakers and investors as a guide toward more informed decision-making and appropriate risk management strategies in the face of oil price volatility in these regions. |
| Abstract: | Considering various critical periods including the COVID-19 pandemic and the ongoing Russian–Ukraine war, this paper investigates the dynamics of extreme spillover effects from the crude oil market to the financial markets of major oil-exporting countries. With the increased integration of global financial systems, oil market fluctuations can have far-reaching implications for economies that are heavily reliant on oil exports. We employ a wavelet approach to explore the co-movement and lead–lag relationships between the oil market and the financial markets of the considered countries. Next, we follow the newly introduced frequency-based connectedness approach of Hanif et al. (2023) to explore the dynamic connectedness and risk transmission among these markets. First, results from the wavelet coherency technique show that the degree of co-movement during the Russia–Ukraine war was significantly lower than it was under both the pre-crises and COVID-19 pandemic periods as shown by fewer regions with warmer colors (red), which show significant dependence at the 5% level, especially for Canada. Secondly, the dynamic connectedness of these markets was largely driven by long-term dynamics during the Russia–Ukraine crisis period, unlike the short-term driven connectedness observed during the COVID-19 pandemic. The average degree of connectedness at high frequencies (short-term) forms a smaller proportion of the average level of connectedness at low frequencies (long-term), indicating a stronger long-term influence of the crisis on the interconnectedness of these markets. Additionally, we find that Canada and the United States were the major net transmitters of shocks to the network during the conflict period, while Iraq exhibited the strongest level of idiosyncratic shocks. Interestingly, the crude oil market was observed to send stronger shocks to the network at the onset of the war, with the impact gradually diminishing as the conflict progressed. Our study provides valuable insights for policymakers and investors as a guide towards more informed decision-making and appropriate risk management strategies in the face of oil price volatility in these regions. |
| Keywords: | Oil prices Equity market Oil-exporting countries Wavelet coherence Frequencyband connectedness TVP-VAR JEL classification: C32 F65 G11, Oil prices, Equity market, Oil-exporting countries, Wavelet coherence, Frequencyband connectedness, TVP-VAR JEL classification: C32, F65, G11, Extreme risk, risk spillovers, oil-exporting nations. |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04681726 |