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on Confederation of Independent States |
| By: | Huterer, Manfred; Pepe, Jacopo Maria; Schmitz, Andrea |
| Abstract: | Russia's war against Ukraine and the geopolitical shifts on the Eurasian continent have brought Central Asia back into the focus of Germany and the EU. Germany's strategic regional partnership with Central Asia, which was announced last autumn, offers promising potential for cooperation. However, deepening sectoral cooperation is associated with challenges that require a realistic assessment of the individual areas of engagement. Precise context analyses are essential to avoid misperceptions and false expectations. Germany's involvement should be long-term and primarily aim to strengthen the crisis resilience of the Central Asian countries. A key prerequisite for this is support for intra-regional cooperation, particularly in logistics, electricity infrastructure and water management.r more pragmatism in climate diplomacy and policy instruments. Moreover, to keep pace with competitors, policymakers should adopt a proactive approach to CCS vis-à-vis technology and industry. |
| Keywords: | Central Asia, Strategic Partnership, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:302133 |
| By: | Schneider, Jonas; Arnold, Torben |
| Abstract: | At the NATO summit in July 2024, the United States and Germany announced that, in 2026, the United States would be deploying ground-launched medium-range missiles in Germany that can reach targets in Russia's heartland. This deployment is a critical step because it gives NATO new capabilities in an area that has become more important as a result of Russia's missile war against Ukraine. Moscow has threatened to respond with military countermeasures. A close analysis reveals, however, that the associated risks for Germany are less severe than many assume. The plan even has the potential to contribute to future arms control agreements with Russia. |
| Keywords: | US medium-range missiles in Germany, Nato, Tomahawk, SM 6, LRHW, Dark Eagle, Russia, arms control |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:302115 |
| By: | Marina Dolfin; George Kapetanios; Leone Leonida; Jose De Leon Miranda |
| Abstract: | We propose an algorithm to capture emergent patterns in the cross-correlations of financial markets, highlighting regime changes on a global scale. In our approach, financial markets are viewed as complex adaptive systems, and multiscale properties and cross-correlations are considered, particularly during stress conditions such as the COVID-19 pandemic, the invasion of Ukraine by Russia in 2022, and Brexit. We investigate whether significant disruptions reflect an imbalance in investment horizons among investors, and we propose a measure based on this imbalance to depict the impact on global financial markets. The detrended cross-correlation cost (DCCC), which is derived from detrended cross-correlation analysis, uses cross-correlations at different timescales to capture variations in investment horizons amid financial uncertainties. Our algorithm, which combines DCCC analysis and the minimum-spanning-tree filtering approach, tracks system interconnectedness and investor imbalances. We tested the DCCC indicator using daily price series of G7, Russian, and Chinese markets over the past decade and found that it increases sharply during ``crash'' periods compared to ``business as usual'' periods. Our empirical results confirm that short-term investment horizons dominate during financial instabilities; this validates our hypothesis and indicates that the DCCC can serve as a leading indicator of shifts in financial-market regimes. |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2408.17200 |
| By: | Mavrigiannakis, Konstantinos; Sakkas, Stelios |
| Abstract: | This paper aims at assessing quantitatively the macroeconomic impact of EU sanctions against Russia for the economy of Cyprus. To this end, we use a medium-scale micro-founded DSGE model of a small open economy participating in a currency union like the euro area calibrated to the economy of Cyprus. The model features two sectors of production, namely the tradable and the non-tradable one. In this model, EU sanctions influence the sanctioning economy (i.e. Cyprus) through a mix of foreign shocks that hit in principle the tradable sector. In particular, to mimic the economic environment (namely, how all this started in 2022), we analyze first the effects of an energy-type shock modeled as a standard cost-push shock on imported goods. In turn, we add to this economic environment the impact of policy reactions like EU sanctions against Russia. In this context and given the strong trade ties of Cyprus with Russia we model sanctions as two simultaneous negative exogenous shocks, that is, a temporary decrease in the exported goods reflecting primarily reductions observed in tourism and financial services, and inward foreign direct investment (FDI). Contrary to the mild impacts reported in the literature for the majority of EU countries we find non negligible adverse effects for the economy of Cyprus which range from -1.28% to -3.36% in terms of average output loss in the short run. Given Cyprus’s vulnerable external position we show that the impact of sanctions depend crucially on the degree of tightening financing conditions which are likely to hit particularly more countries with high initial current account deficits and debt stocks. |
| Keywords: | Cyprus; economic sanctions; trade disintegration |
| JEL: | F16 F51 |
| Date: | 2024–09–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:125336 |
| By: | Pavol Bors; Tibor T Meszmann |
| Abstract: | This research report, prepared as a part of the project “REJEnerAXion - Energy for a just and green recovery deal: the role of the industrial relations in the energy sector for a resilient Europe”, a European Union co-funded research project (101052341/SOCPL-2021-IND-REL), investigates Hungary's energy sector transformation within the framework of a just transition. The analysis emphasises key findings related to social dialogue, industrial relations, and collective bargaining in the context of the energy transition. Multi-actor institutional involvement characterises the energy transition in Hungary along with a very high level of (informal) centralisation, that results in non-transparent governance. The high dependency on Russian fuel and technology and the high turbulence in energy production and consumption, especially since the start of the war in Ukraine, have created new uncertainties about the timing and nature of the phase-out of coal. Collective bargaining in Hungary is highly decentralised, with decreasing coverage rates and falling union membership. The energy sector stands out as a regulated sector with high coverage and relatively high union density rates, so far attempting to resisting the negative trends. Sectoral and company-level collective agreements were pivotal in managing property transformation and state ownership changes in the last decades, and provide both an institutional legacy and know-how for sectoral trade unions to deal with the challenges of the green transition. While there is social dialogue within a recently established regional coal commission, the absence of a comprehensive tripartite institution covering the entire workforce hinders effective policy inclusion. Expert informants pointed out that the Hungarian energy transition is fragile as it is a centralised system, which is both driven by and dependent on available financialization and EU regulation and conditionality. The country’s energy transition has a top-down, increasingly centralised characteristic, which lacks transparency and clear, responsive timetable. Trade unions in energy and mining are active in the process emphasise just transition principles, while employer organisations are less vocal. Trade unions do not support unconditionally the transition towards renewables, but advocate alternative solutions. |
| Date: | 2024–08–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cel:report:67 |
| By: | Vasily Astrov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Lisa Scheckenhofer; Camille Semelet; Feodora Teti |
| Abstract: | Recent high-frequency data suggest a further strengthening of growth momentum, driven by the ongoing tightness of the labour market and the muted response of credit expansion to last year’s monetary policy tightening. At the same time, the short- and medium-term fiscal outlook has brightened – despite increased military and social spending. On the external front, imports picked up at the end of 2023, but have suffered more recently due to increased payment difficulties – a result of renewed US pressure on banks from third countries dealing with Russia. The effectiveness of trade sanctions crucially hinges on the degree to which missing high-quality Western goods can be replaced with lower-quality products from third countries. Our calculations suggest that in 2023, the share of sanctioned CHP items that Russia was able to obtain ranged from 60% to 170% of the 2021 level, depending on underlying assumptions regarding the extent of the deterioration in quality. |
| Keywords: | economic growth, fiscal situation, foreign trade, sanctions, unit value ratios |
| JEL: | F14 F51 H20 H62 O10 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:rusmon:6 |
| By: | Bakoben, Sandrine; Rumpel, Andrea; Schlee, Thorsten |
| Abstract: | Die Vervielfältigung von Aufenthaltspositionen unterhalb voller staatsbürgerschaftlicher und sozialer Rechte führt zu ungleichen Chancen und Ausschlüssen Geflüchteter und zu Umsetzungsproblemen in lokalen Verwaltungen. Geflüchtete mit individuellen oder gruppenbezogenen Ressourcen gelingt es besser, sich durch verschiedene Ausschlüsse zu navigieren. Der lokale Umgang mit Fluchtmigration erweist sich vor allem in Netzwerkstrukturen als erfolgreich. Der Umgang mit Kriegsflüchtlingen aus der Ukraine liefert eine Blaupause für die vereinfachte Handhabung auch zukünftiger Fluchtbewegungen in die Bundesrepublik. |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iaqrep:301587 |
| By: | Daria Suprunenko (Osnabrueck University) |
| Abstract: | Geographic neighbors of sanctioned countries (targets) may suffer from indirect effects of sanctions or benefit by helping targets circumvent restrictions. I study the effects of sanctions on trade among neighbors and targets using data from BACI for 2002–2022 and separately accounting for export of sensitive goods: arms, dual use goods and machinery. I find that export of dual use goods (in value) and machinery (in value and weight) from benevolent neighbors to targets increases when sanctions are in place. Additionally, I show that the weight of arms exported by neighbors to Iran, as well as value of dual use goods and weight of machinery exported to Russia were significantly higher with sanctions in place suggesting that their neighbors were not innocent bystanders. |
| Keywords: | Trade sanctions, extraterritorial effects, trade |
| JEL: | F13 F51 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iee:wpaper:wp0123 |
| By: | Sánchez Serrano, Antonio; Andersen, Isabel |
| Abstract: | We present a methodology based on quarterly sectoral accounts to build a map of the euro area financial system. The map can be used to visualise existing cross-sectoral interconnections and exposures, to analyse how the main bilateral positions have evolved over time, and to understand how past episodes of financial stress affected balance sheet structures and inter-sectoral flows. We find that the euro area financial system was essentially bank-centric when it entered the global financial crisis, and only afterwards has the importance of investment funds, government debt and central banks increased substantially. In particular, investment funds are used by euro area economic agents to gain exposure to the rest of the world and vice versa. We also document weak dynamics since the global financial crisis in lending between euro area banks and non-financial corporations. Next, we look at the financial system during the global financial crisis and the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, a further four episodes of financial stress (sovereign debt crisis, the US taper tantrum, the Brexit referendum, the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine) and the monetary policy tightening between 2005 and 2007. While there are differences across them, we unveil interesting common features. The map can be useful in determining which sectors are resilient enough to absorb losses and whether they can serve as transmitters of stress. Finally, turning to liquidity, bank deposits, money market fund shares and securities financing transactions are key to ensure a smooth supply of liquidity and should continuously be on the radar of policymakers. JEL Classification: G01, G20, G10 |
| Keywords: | financial crisis, financial intermediation, flow of funds, Interconnections, liquidity |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:srk:srkops:202426 |
| By: | Mardonova, Mohru; Lambrecht, Isabel; Mahrt, Kristi |
| Abstract: | Quantitative data collected in August and September 2018 in 12 districts of Khatlon Province, called “The Assessment of Nutrition-Sensitive Value Chains in the FtF ZOI in Tajikistan†were employed to analyze gender differences in participation in crop production and marketing activities, and to understand the association between women’s employment and their decision-making power at home. The dataset contains general information on the households’ farm activities, and detailed information of production practices for households’ main horticultural crops (vegetables, fruits, melons and cucurbitae). |
| Keywords: | Tajikistan; Central Asia; Asia; nutrition; value chains; gender; crop production; marketing; women's empowerment; employment; decision making |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ceaspb:145188t |
| By: | Monika Martišková; Patrik Gažo |
| Abstract: | Slovakia heavily relies on energy resources from Russia, but there are efforts to diversify sources, intensified by the Ukraine-Russian war started in 2022. Nuclear power dominates electricity generation, while renewables constitute only 13% of the energy mix, primarily sourced from water, solar, and biomass. Wind and geothermal energy hold untapped potential, crucial for enhancing the country's energy self-sufficiency. Mining and coal burning sector, as well as in the gas distribution industry transformation will have the strongest impact on employees. At the same time, emerging sectors such as photovoltaics and heat pumps are facing huge labour shortages. There are two multi-employer collective agreements in the energy sector, both stipulate requirements on employers to provide requalification if the employer has capacities to do so and oblige employer to consult with the company-level trade union measures related to employees´ qualifications. Nevertheless, more and more frequently, social partners address the energy transition at the company level, and thus the approaches are decentralised and less coordinated, often guided by the company HR policies and less consulted with trade unions. At the same time, social dialogue is missing in the emerging sectors. |
| Date: | 2024–08–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cel:report:68 |
| By: | Rajiv, Sharanya; Aliev, Jovidon |
| Abstract: | Resilience Index Measurement Analysis (RIMA) is applied to panel household survey data from 2007, 2009, and 2011 in Tajikistan to investigate the causal impact of household resilience on food security in the presence of coping strategies. Key findings • Three significant factors define household resilience capacity: access to basic services, including affordable energy supply; assets; and social safety nets. The latter two factors underscore the importance of formal and informal transfers as effective responses when shocks intensify. • Coping strategies allow households to quickly adjust their behavior to adapt to shocks in the short-term, potentially enhancing their overall resilience in the long-term. • Resilience capacity at a given point in time enhances households’ future food security. Households with higher resilience capacity are likely to have a higher household food expenditure share (HFES) and less likely to face loss of food expenditure share, particularly due to the protective effect of resilience when shocks intensify. • While households with an older head have higher food expenditure share, households with a male head and/or located in rural areas are less likely to face a worsening household food expenditure share. • As household size increases, the household food expenditure share initially decreases but eventually increases at a gradual pace. Conversely, as size increases, households are initially less likely to experience loss of HFES, but this likelihood eventually increases. |
| Keywords: | Tajikistan; Central Asia; Asia; resilience; food security; energy consumption; social safety nets; assets; households; financial institutions |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ceaspb:145254 |
| By: | Yu-Ann Wang (Taiwan Research Institute, Taiwan); Chia-Lin Chang (National Chung Hsing University, Taiwan) |
| Abstract: | This study explores risk transmission in financial markets, focusing on investor hedging decisions. It examines risk movement between renewable and fossil fuel energy assets in energy ETFs during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the COVID-19 pandemic. A novel test evaluates how an energy asset's volatility impacts the overall portfolio risk, offering insights for managing financial risk. The analysis covers three major renewable energy ETFs (solar, wind, and hydro) and three fossil fuel ETFs (oil, coal, and natural gas). During the COVID-19 crisis, effective combinations such as (solar, coal) and (wind, coal) are recommended for minimizing losses. Although not ideal for hedging solar-related risks, (solar, oil) is advantageous for oil-related shocks. The study found that combining solar with oil and wind with oil was effective in mitigating losses during the GFC and before COVID-19. In non-pandemic periods, combinations like (solar, oil) or (solar, coal) are valuable for risk management. This research highlights the interconnectedness of energy assets and provides actionable insights for investors and policymakers. Future research could examine other events, like the Russia-Ukraine war, impacting global energy markets. |
| Keywords: | Renewable energy, Volatility spillover, Risk Transfer, GFC, COVID-19 |
| JEL: | C32 C58 G01 G11 G14 Q42 Q47 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kyo:wpaper:1108 |
| By: | Rajiv, Sharanya; Aliev, Jovidon |
| Abstract: | Resilience Index Measurement Analysis (RIMA) is applied to panel household survey data from 2007, 2009, and 2011 in Tajikistan to investigate the causal impact of household resilience on food security in the presence of coping strategies. Key findings • Three significant factors define household resilience capacity: access to basic services, including affordable energy supply; assets; and social safety nets. The latter two factors underscore the importance of formal and informal transfers as effective responses when shocks intensify. • Coping strategies allow households to quickly adjust their behavior to adapt to shocks in the short-term, potentially enhancing their overall resilience in the long-term. • Resilience capacity at a given point in time enhances households’ future food security. Households with higher resilience capacity are likely to have a higher household food expenditure share (HFES) and less likely to face loss of food expenditure share, particularly due to the protective effect of resilience when shocks intensify. • While households with an older head have higher food expenditure share, households with a male head and/or located in rural areas are less likely to face a worsening household food expenditure share. • As household size increases, the household food expenditure share initially decreases but eventually increases at a gradual pace. Conversely, as size increases, households are initially less likely to experience loss of HFES, but this likelihood eventually increases. |
| Keywords: | Tajikistan; Central Asia; Asia; resilience; food security; energy consumption; social safety nets; assets; households; financial institutions |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ceaspb:145254t |
| By: | Elvis K. Ofori (Taiyuan University of Technology, China); Festus V. Bekun (Istanbul, Turkey); Bright A. Gyamfi (Ä°stanbul Ticaret University, Turkey); Ali E. Baba (Ural Federal University, Russia); Stephen T. Onifade (KTO Karatay University, Konya, Turkey); Simplice A. Asongu (Johannesburg, South Africa) |
| Abstract: | The current study thus explored the impact of technological innovation and trade openness on clean energy while accounting for economic growth, access to electricity, pollution, industrial restructuring, and urbanization using data from 1990 to 2020 for both the MINT and BRICS economies. A series of test were performed for a robust analysis using second generation econometrics approaches before proceeding to investigate the long-run linkages between renewable energy and the duo of innovation and trade using the Prais-Winsten regression model with panel-corrected standard errors (PCSE) while the Driscoll-Kraay standard errors test was applied for robustness checks. The results, firstly confirm the presence of heterogeneity, cross-sectional dependence, and cointegration among the selected variables. Secondly, technological innovation as a renewable energy determinant demonstrated negative elasticities in both BRICS countries and the full sample, but a positive elasticity in the MINT countries. Thirdly, concerning trade liberalisation, negative elasticities were obtained for the full sample and MINT countries, while the elasticities were positive for the BRICS bloc. Fourthly, the roles of economic growth and environmental pollution reveal a negative impact on renewable energy consumption for all samples while urbanisation and industrial restructuring promote renewable energy developments only in the BRICS bloc. Policy implications are discussed. |
| Keywords: | Renewable energy, trade liberalization, technological innovation, Prais-Winsten regression |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agd:wpaper:24/022 |
| By: | Djankov, Simeon; Su, Meng |
| Abstract: | We compile data on US sanctions under the Magnitsky Act from 2017 to 2024 and find that such sanctions are weakly corelated with human rights abuses in the home countries of the sanctioned persons but are uncorrelated with perceptions of corruption. |
| Keywords: | Magnitsky act; economic sanctions; human rights abuse; perceptions of corruption; Elsevier deal |
| JEL: | J1 F3 G3 |
| Date: | 2024–09–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:124415 |