|
on Confederation of Independent States |
| By: | OECD |
| Abstract: | The OECD database on export restrictions on staple crops is an integral part of the Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) initiative. Data collected between January 2007 to April 2024 show an increased use of export restrictions during the global food price crisis of 2007-08, the COVID-19 pandemic, and following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, with the first period witnessing a significantly higher use of export restrictions than the two subsequent crises. During the first two periods, export taxes prevailed, while prohibitions have been more prominent during the war in Ukraine. The analysis shows that the type of export restriction most commonly used varied by commodity. Maize experienced predominantly export taxes and prohibitions, while minimum export prices and quotas were frequently used for rice. Soybeans were primarily targeted by export taxes, whereas a mix of export quotas and taxes were used for wheat. Only a small proportion of export restrictions lasted less than a month. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural policy, Agricultural trade, Export bans, Food trade, Grains |
| JEL: | F13 Q17 Q2 Q18 |
| Date: | 2024–09–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:agraaa:210-en |
| By: | Kiet Duong (University of York.); Toan Huynh (Queen Mary University of London); Anh Phan (University of Liverpool); Nam Vu (Miami University) |
| Abstract: | We propose a novel explanation for why sanctions on Russian firms might not work as intended: these firms' ability to diversify sanction risks via partner countries friendly with Russia. Using indirect links with partner firms as a plausibly exogenous proxy for this risk-sharing channel, we show that exposed Russian firms were able to leverage these links to alleviate the negative impacts of sanctions in 2014. |
| Keywords: | International risk-sharing, sanction, Russia, firm-level |
| JEL: | F31 F41 F42 F51 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgs:wpaper:119 |
| By: | Gambaro, Ludovica (London School of Economics); Huebener, Mathias (Bundesinstitut für Bevölkerungsforschung (BiB)); Schmitz, Sophia (Federal Institute for Population Research); Spieß, C. Katharina (Bundesinstitut für Bevölkerungsforschung (BiB)) |
| Abstract: | In armed conflicts, it is common for women, children, and the elderly to flee, leaving the men behind. While refugee women face particular challenges in caring for children in host countries, there is only limited evidence on the impact of childcare services on their integration. This paper examines the role of childcare services in the integration, employment, and well-being of refugee mothers. We focus on the displacement caused by the Russian invasion in Ukraine. Our analysis is based on a unique, large, and representative panel data set of Ukrainian refugees in Germany. We find a strong correlation between childcare attendance and the participation of refugee mothers in language courses, labour market activity, and social interaction. To establish causality, we leverage exogenous regional differences in childcare availability and excess demand. Our results reveal significant positive effects of childcare services on the participation of refugee mothers in language and integration programs, as well as employment and their interactions with Germans. However, we find no effects on maternal well-being. Our findings emphasize the importance of providing childcare services to refugee mothers to facilitate their integration. |
| Keywords: | childcare services, refugees, forced migration, integration, employment, Ukraine |
| JEL: | I26 J13 J15 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17181 |
| By: | Nadeem Naqvi (KIMEP University, Almaty, Kazakhstan); Eldar Madumarov (KIMEP University, Almaty, Kazakhstan); Henrik Egbert (Anhalt University of Applied Sciences, Bernburg, Germany) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of a major exogenous shock—the inflow of Russian migrants into Almaty, Kazakhstan, after the Russia-Ukraine conflict began in 2022—on the city's restaurant industry. A large proportion of the migrants moving into Almaty pushed the price for housing significantly upward. Given the dual residential and commercial nature of ground-level real estate, the rapid increase in rental costs spilled into the restaurant industry as one of its most burdensome fixed expenses. By adopting the setup of perfect competition, we can trace how this escalation in fixed costs sets off a sequence of market responses: an initial fall in profit experienced universally by firms, exit of restaurants from the market, a drop in total market supply, increase in meal prices, and changes in the output behavior of restaurants that remain in business. The models show that the number of restaurants declined, meal prices rose, each restaurant served more customers, and industry output fell. Our work also clearly shows, as is consistent with the literature on narratives and economic results, that economic theory does not exist in a vacuum. Our results provide empirical content to a realization that very stylized models—those based on the strongest assumptions, and therefore quite far from complex realities—may supply testable predictions of firm and industry behavior under exogenous shocks. The analysis advanced our understanding of the economic consequences of abrupt migration events but also provided pedagogical value in showing the applicability of theoretical models to real-world scenarios. |
| Keywords: | exogenous shock, real estate rent, restaurant industry, emigration from Russia, Kazakhstan economy |
| JEL: | D22 D41 L83 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sko:wpaper:bep-2024-05 |
| By: | Luisa Corrado (DEF, University of Rome "Tor Vergata"); Stefano Grassi (DEF, University of Rome "Tor Vergata"); Aldo Paolillo (DEF, University of Rome "Tor Vergata"); Francesco Ravazzolo (Free University of Bozen-Bolzano) |
| Abstract: | This work studies the turbulent confluence of two major events - the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine - both of which caused significant disruptions in global energy demand and macroeconomic variables. We propose and estimate a two-sector Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model that incorporates both crude and refined energy sources, thus combining together the multifaceted dynamics of the energy sector, where crude elements like oil, coal, and gas are intertwined with other production components. The model describes the transmission of energy shocks through complementarities in production and consumption, as a mechanism that amplifies the fluctuations of the business cycle. We find that the impact of price shocks on oil, coal, and gas accounts for 32% of the increase in the general price level between 2021:Q1 and 2022:Q4, and that oil and gas price shocks contributed most significantly. Finally, we discuss the case in which energy shocks can be Keynesian supply shocks. |
| Date: | 2024–08–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rtv:ceisrp:582 |
| By: | Kosyakova, Yuliya (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany ; Univ. Bamberg); Brücker, Herbert (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany ; Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, BIM) |
| Abstract: | "Seit Beginn des russischen Angriffskriegs auf die Ukraine ist die Anzahl ukrainischer Staatsangehörigen in Deutschland von 156.000 auf 1.240.000 angestiegen. Obwohl ein erheblicher Teil dieser Menschen nach dem Kriegsende plant, in die Ukraine zurückzukehren, zeigt sich, dass mit zunehmender Kriegsdauer immer mehr einen längeren oder dauerhaften Aufenthalt in Deutschland in Betracht ziehen. Vor diesem Hintergrund simuliert dieser Forschungsbericht verschiedene Szenarien der Arbeitsmarktintegration ukrainischer Geflüchteter. Grundlage bilden die Erwerbsverläufe früherer Geflüchteter in Deutschland sowie von Migrantinnen und Migranten aus der ehemaligen Sowjetunion. Die Szenarien zielen darauf ab, realistische Erwartungen über die Entwicklung der Arbeitsmarktintegration von Geflüchteten aus der Ukraine zu bilden, und die Einflüsse spezifischer Faktoren quantitativ zu analysieren. Diese konditionalen Szenarien sind allerdings nicht als Prognosen misszuverstehen, da sie davon abhängig sind, ob die zugrunde gelegten Annahmen zutreffen und viele relevante Faktoren nicht vollständig berücksichtigt werden können. In dem Basisszenario, dem nach unserer Einschätzung die realistischsten Annahmen über demografische Faktoren, Familienkonstellationen, Bildung, Sprache, institutionelle und wirtschaftliche Faktoren zu Grunde liegen, ergibt sich nach einer Aufenthaltsdauer von fünf Jahren eine durchschnittliche Erwerbstätigenquote von 45 Prozent, nach zehn Jahren von 55 Prozent. Insbesondere der hohe Anteil von Alleinerziehenden sowie der vergleichsweise schlechte Gesundheitszustand der ukrainischen Geflüchteten wirken sich dämpfend auf die Entwicklung der Erwerbstätigenquoten aus, während das relativ hohe Bildungs- und Ausbildungsniveau sowie die zu erwartende Entwicklung der Sprachkenntnisse einen positiven Einfluss haben. Dies gilt auch für die institutionellen Rahmenbedingungen, insbesondere den Verzicht auf ein Asylverfahren. Die wachsende Arbeitsmarktanspannung hat ebenfalls einen starken positiven Einfluss. Die gegenwärtige Eintrübung der Konjunktur wirkt sich deshalb nachteilig aus, allerdings kann sich das Bild bei einer konjunkturellen Erholung aufgrund der demografiebedingt steigenden Arbeitsmarktanspannung schnell verbessern. Dann dürften die Erwerbstätigenquoten im Vergleich zum Basisszenario steigen. Ein zentraler Befund für die Integrationspolitik ist, dass Sprachkurse nicht nur die Sprachentwicklung, sondern auch die Erwerbstätigenquoten signifikant steigern können." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku) |
| Keywords: | Bundesrepublik Deutschland ; Sowjetunion ; Ukraine ; Asylverfahren ; Aufenthaltsdauer ; IAB-Open-Access-Publikation ; ausländische Frauen ; IAB-BiB/FReDA-BAMF-SOEP-Befragung ; Auswirkungen ; berufliche Integration ; ausländische Männer ; Bildungsniveau ; Einwanderer ; Erwerbsquote ; Geflüchtete ; Gesundheitszustand ; Herkunftsland ; institutionelle Faktoren ; allein Erziehende ; Mütter ; IAB-SOEP-Migrationsstichprobe ; Sprachförderung ; Sprachkenntnisse ; IAB-BAMF-SOEP-Befragung von Geflüchteten ; Szenario ; 1991-2022 |
| Date: | 2024–05–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabfob:202409(de) |
| By: | Dimitar Kitanovski; Igor Mishkovski; Viktor Stojkoski; Miroslav Mirchev |
| Abstract: | Maintaining a balance between returns and volatility is a common strategy for portfolio diversification, whether investing in traditional equities or digital assets like cryptocurrencies. One approach for diversification is the application of community detection or clustering, using a network representing the relationships between assets. We examine two network representations, one based on a standard distance matrix based on correlation, and another based on mutual information. The Louvain and Affinity propagation algorithms were employed for finding the network communities (clusters) based on annual data. Furthermore, we examine building assets' co-occurrence networks, where communities are detected for each month throughout a whole year and then the links represent how often assets belong to the same community. Portfolios are then constructed by selecting several assets from each community based on local properties (degree centrality), global properties (closeness centrality), or explained variance (Principal component analysis), with three value ranges (max, med, min), calculated on a maximal spanning tree or a fully connected community sub-graph. We explored these various strategies on data from the S\&P 500 and the Top 203 cryptocurrencies with a market cap above 2M USD in the period from Jan 2019 to Sep 2022. Moreover, we study into more details the periods of the beginning of the COVID-19 outbreak and the start of the war in Ukraine. The results confirm some of the previous findings already known for traditional stock markets and provide some further insights, while they reveal an opposing trend in the crypto-assets market. |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2408.11739 |
| By: | Kohnert, Dirk |
| Abstract: | The Alliance of Sahel States (AES), created in September 2023 by the three military governments of Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso as a counterweight to ECOWAS and the postcolonial influence of France and other Western countries, announced the creation of a confederation of its three countries in July 2024. The AES have more in common than the other countries of the Sahel. First, they are the centre of the Sahel and most vulnerable to jihadism. They figure among the least developed countries, with 40% to 50% of the population living in poverty. They are also landlocked countries with vast desert areas, making them more vulnerable to climate change. The creation of the AES came amid a decade of escalating unrest in the Sahel, fuelled by the aftermath of the NATO-led intervention in Libya in 2011. The resulting instability caused rampant arms trafficking and the rise of armed groups linked to al-Qaeda and the Islamic State. The Sahel region accounts for a staggering 43% of global terrorist deaths, more than South Asia, the Middle East and North Africa combined. Previous leaders have often put French interests ahead of those of their own people, allowing the continued exploitation of the region's natural resources, including uranium, gold and manganese, without much benefit to the local population. In the face of critical comments from the AU about the AES countries' exit from ECOWAS, the former rejected any interference in their internal affairs. The AES confederation will expand the operational space of the junta alliance and consolidate its military and economic partnership with Russia and China, as well as Turkey and Iran. However, the AES secession undermines the legitimacy of ECOWAS by hindering regional economic and security integration and further complicating the return to democratization. The confederation will seek to absorb new members such as Chad, Guinea and Sudan to further strengthen its power and legitimacy as an alternative regional bloc. However, a divided Sahel will make tackling regional challenges even more difficult. If the AES were to replace the CFA franc with its own currency, as announced, and other Francophone countries in the UEMOA were to follow suit, this would require a fundamental restructuring of both the UEMOA and ECOWAS and finally also call into question the introduction of the ECO, the common West African currency, envisaged for 2027. |
| Keywords: | Alliance of Sahel States; West Africa; Sahel; ECOWAS; UEMOA; Jihadism; Decolonization; Nationalism; Sovereignty; Sustainable development; good governance; CFA franc; Mali; Niger; Burkina Faso; Guinea; Nigeria; France; Russia; China; |
| JEL: | F15 F35 F52 F53 F54 H77 N17 N47 O17 O55 Z13 |
| Date: | 2024–07–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:121554 |
| By: | Kornher, Lukas; Balezentis, Tomas; Santeramo, Fabio Gaetano |
| Abstract: | Since the Covid-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine War, global food markets have been in turmoil. Agricultural input and energy prices doubled between 2020 and 2022, with immediate consequences on food accessibility. We examine the drivers of the EU food inflation patterns, and how trade integration shapes these dynamics. We find that food price inflation has been mainly driven by surges in agricultural production costs and, to a lesser extent, by global food price increases. Trade openness has not exacerbated the inflating dynamics during this period. |
| Keywords: | Europe, food price inflation, Russia–Ukraine War, trade policy uncertainty, geopolitical risk |
| JEL: | E31 Q11 Q18 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:121673 |
| By: | Ayoub Ouboumlik (FSJES AIN SEBAA, Hassan II University –Casablanca) |
| Abstract: | This article examines the digital transformation of public administration as a key vector for modernizing government services, enhancing transparency and engaging citizens. Through a systematic analysis of the literature and case studies, including Kazakhstan, we explore how digital technologies facilitate the creation of public value, improving operational efficiency and fostering participatory governance. The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, a gas pedal of this transformation, highlights the need for inclusive digital strategies. Despite progress, challenges remain, particularly in terms of technical infrastructure, appropriate legislative frameworks and organizational culture. Our findings underline the importance of a strategic approach centered on the citizen and innovation to maximize the benefits of digitalization in public administration. |
| Abstract: | Cet article examine la transformation numérique de l'administration publique comme vecteur essentiel de modernisation des services gouvernementaux, de renforcement de la transparence et d'engagement citoyen. À travers une analyse systématique de lalittérature et des études de cas, notamment celle du Kazakhstan, nous explorons comment les technologies digitales facilitent la création de valeur publique, en améliorant l'efficacité opérationnelle et en favorisant une gouvernance participative. La pandémie de Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), accélérateur de cette transformation, met en évidence la nécessité d'adopter des stratégies digitales inclusives. Malgré les progrès, des défis subsistent, notamment en matière d'infrastructures techniques, de cadres législatifs adaptés et de culture organisationnelle. Nos conclusions soulignent l'importance d'une approche stratégique centrée sur le citoyen et l'innovation pour maximiser les bénéfices de la digitalisation dans l'administration publique. |
| Keywords: | Administration Numérique, Confiance, Digitalisation, Innovation, Confiance Digitalization, Digital Administration, Trust |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04677269 |