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on Confederation of Independent States |
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Issue of 2024‒08‒26
nineteen papers chosen by |
| By: | Bachmann, Rüdiger; Baqaee, David Rezza; Bayer, Christian; Kuhn, Moritz; Löschel, Andreas; Moll, Ben; Peichl, Andreas; Pittel, Karen; Schularick, Moritz |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses the economic effects of a potential cut-off of the German economy from Russian energy imports. We use a multi-sector open-economy model and a simplified approach based on an aggregate production function to estimate the effects of a shock to energy inputs. We show that the effects are likely to be substantial but manageable because of substitution of energy imports and reallocation along the production chain. In the short run, a stop of Russian energy imports would lead to an output loss relative to the baseline situation, without the energy cut-off, in the range 0.5% to 3% of GDP. |
| Keywords: | Wiley deal |
| JEL: | J1 |
| Date: | 2024–07–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:124094 |
| By: | Gafarova, Gulmira; Perekhozhuk, Oleksandr; Glauben, Thomas |
| Abstract: | This study looks at whether Kazakh and Russian wheat exporters leverage their dominant share of the wheat markets in the South Caucasus to exercise market power. We apply a three-stage estimation for systems of simultaneous equations and Zellner’s seemingly unrelated regression to analyse residual demand elasticity. The results of both estimations provide empirical evi-dence of Russian market power in the wheat markets of the South Caucasus but no evidence of a Kazakh oligopoly. Russian exporters possess greater market power in Armenia than in Geor-gia. Market power depends on the presence of competitors in the destination market. The results show that Kazakh exporters restrict the market powers of Russian exporters in the Azerbaijani wheat market, while Russian exporters constrain the market power of Kazakh exporters in the Azerbaijani and Georgian wheat markets. Ukrainian wheat exporters are able to intervene in the market powers of Russian exporters in Azerbaijan and Georgia, while they restrict Kazakh oligopoly in the Georgian market. Some export restrictions imposed by wheat exporting coun-tries significantly affected competition in wheat importing countries. |
| Keywords: | International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2023–09–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:gewi23:344230 |
| By: | Jaghdani, Tinoush Jamali; Glauben, Thomas; Prehn, Sören; Götz, Linde; Svanidze, Miranda |
| Abstract: | The international wheat market has entered into a new era since 2000 as the structural changes in post-Soviet Union states had impacts. Kazakhstan, the Russian Federation, and Ukraine (KRU) have started to utilize their vast resources and rapidly became major actors in international grain markets. Romania in East Europe is another emerging grain exporter upon the collapse of the Iron Wall. Upon the Russia invasion of Ukraine and short-run disruptions in global wheat, corn and oilseed supply chains, it becomes a question how different is the sta-bility of grain trade relation between these new actors and old actors. We have tried to respond to this question by using the annual trade data during 2001-2021 and applying the discrete time hazard model to estimate the baseline hazard and the survival ratio for 11 major wheat exporters. The results of these estimations show that we can’t recognize separate clusters for old and new actors, and the probability of trade survival over a longer period is very diverse between old actors and new actors. |
| Keywords: | International Relations/Trade, Supply Chain |
| Date: | 2023–09–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:gewi23:344241 |
| By: | Schneider, Jonas; Arnold, Torben |
| Abstract: | Die USA und Deutschland haben auf dem Nato-Gipfel im Juli 2024 verkündet, dass 2026 in Deutschland bodengestützte amerikanische Mittelstreckenwaffen stationiert werden, die das russische Kernland erreichen können. Das ist ein bedeutender Schritt, denn die Nato erhält damit neue Fähigkeiten in einem Bereich, der durch Russlands Raketenkrieg gegen die Ukraine wichtiger geworden ist. Moskau droht mit militärischen Gegenmaßnahmen. Aber die hiermit verknüpften Risiken für Deutschland sind bei genauer Betrachtung geringer als oft vermutet. Die Pläne haben sogar Potential, zu künftigen Rüstungskontrollvereinbarungen mit Russland beizutragen. |
| Keywords: | US-Mittelstreckenwaffen in Deutschland, Nato, Tomahawk, SM 6, LRHW, Dark Eagle, Russland, Rüstungskontrolle |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpakt:300623 |
| By: | Giancarlo Corsetti; Banu Demir; Beata Javorcik |
| Abstract: | Geopolitical fragmentation triggers complex dynamics in international trade. Sanctions forcing existing (large) exporters to discontinue or reduce their sales in target countries create profit opportunities in these markets. But firms responding to these opportunities face (i) risk of nonpayment, (ii) reputational risks and the threat of punitive measures, if exposed trading with unfriendly countries and (iii) higher costs of established trading practice, e.g., payment in international currencies through inter national circuits. This paper builds a stylized model accounting for these factors and provides empirical evidence exploiting developments in Türkiye’s international trade in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent introduction of western sanctions on Russia. It shows that Turkish exports to Russia have risen sharply across sanctioned and nonsanctioned products, with Turkish firms charging higher markups and prices. These developments were accompanied by an increase in the share of cash-in-advance transactions and the share of Turkish firms invoicing in Turkish liras instead of dollars. Overall, the paper provides evidence of strong trade diversion, particularly for products for which the pre-war market share of European exporters was high. Yet, exports of firms with significant Western ties via ownership and trade have dropped or remained unchanged. |
| Date: | 2024–08–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:wpaper:1052 |
| By: | Baturo, Alexander |
| Abstract: | How do autocrats try to win over other member states and gain support for their counternorms? Rather than directly opposing liberal values, autocrats may resort to subtler tactics that make it difficult for others not to support their norm-based initiatives. Russia, a prominent authoritarian regime, has centered its international efforts on enhancing the salience and universality of combating Nazism. Because of linkages between Nazism and racial discrimination, Russia has been able to attract allies in countries sensitive to colonial legacies and apartheid by making opposition to its initiatives morally unacceptable. These tactics were widely employed during the Cold War, but they have returned in force. This paper offers a systematic study of Soviet and Russian anti-Nazi initiatives from 1946 to 2022. It provides an empirical analysis of the factors behind support for international resolutions combating Nazism, examines the discursive coalition around this norm in the United Nations, and compares Russia’s efforts across other international organizations (IOs). The findings show how authoritarian regimes project norms and have important implications for our understanding of ideology in international relations. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Dictatorships in IOs, ideology, counternorms, Russia, United Nations, text-as-data |
| Date: | 2023–04–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:globco:qt7w8504tk |
| By: | Floudas, Demetrius |
| Abstract: | Upon the commencement of Russia's military intervention in Ukraine in February 2022, a collective response was swiftly initiated by the United States, the European Union, G7 nations, and their allies. This materialised in the form of an unparalleled assemblage of economic, financial, diplomatic, and supplementary sanctions, which have been undergoing successive modifications and additions throughout the ensuing months. Initially, Western analysts forecast dire repercussions for Russia, with some predicting a double-digit decline in gross domestic product. However, actual projections have been significantly revised downward. This paper aims to enumerate and explain in brief the factors that have prevented the Russian economy from a momentous downturn, in spite of the unprecedented extent of imposed sanctions. |
| Keywords: | Russia, sanctions, Ukraine war, Russian economy, rouble, dollar |
| JEL: | E58 F51 F52 H77 |
| Date: | 2023–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:121346 |
| By: | Sourish Das |
| Abstract: | In this work, we present an alternative passive investment strategy. The passive investment philosophy comes from the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), and its adoption is widespread. If EMH is true, one cannot outperform market by actively managing their portfolio for a long time. Also, it requires little to no intervention. People can buy an exchange-traded fund (ETF) with a long-term perspective. As the economy grows over time, one expects the ETF to grow. For example, in India, one can invest in NETF, which suppose to mimic the Nifty50 return. However, the weights of the Nifty 50 index are based on market capitalisation. These weights are not necessarily optimal for the investor. In this work, we present that volatility risk and extreme risk measures of the Nifty50 portfolio are uniformly larger than Markowitz's optimal portfolio. However, common people can't create an optimised portfolio. So we proposed an alternative passive investment strategy of an equal-weight portfolio. We show that if one pushes the maximum weight of the portfolio towards equal weight, the idiosyncratic risk of the portfolio would be minimal. The empirical evidence indicates that the risk profile of an equal-weight portfolio is similar to that of Markowitz's optimal portfolio. Hence instead of buying Nifty50 ETFs, one should equally invest in the stocks of Nifty50 to achieve a uniformly better risk profile than the Nifty 50 ETF portfolio. We also present an analysis of how portfolios perform to idiosyncratic events like the Russian invasion of Ukraine. We found that the equal weight portfolio has a uniformly lower risk than the Nifty 50 portfolio before and during the Russia-Ukraine war. All codes are available on GitHub (\url{https://github.com/sourish-cmi/qua nt/tree/main/Chap_Risk_Anal_of_Passive_P ortfolio}). |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2407.08332 |
| By: | Jochen Güntner; Magnus Reif; Maik Wolters; Maik H. Wolters |
| Abstract: | We use a structural VAR model to study the German natural gas market and investigate the impact of the 2022 Russian supply stop on the German economy. Combining conventional and narrative sign restrictions, we find that gas supply and demand shocks have large and persistent price effects, while output effects tend to be moderate. The 2022 natural gas price spike was driven by adverse supply shocks and positive storage demand shocks, as Germany filled its inventories before the winter. Counterfactual simulations of an embargo on natural gas imports from Russia indicate similar positive price and negative output effects compared to what we observe in the data. |
| Keywords: | energy crisis, German natural gas market, narrative sign restrictions, natural gas price, structural scenario analysis, vector-autoregression |
| JEL: | E32 F51 Q41 Q43 Q48 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11191 |
| By: | Nesterenko, Galyna |
| Abstract: | Der Artikel stellt die vorläufigen Ergebnisse des Forschungsprojekts "Employer Branding deutscher Arbeitgeber zur Gewinnung hochqualifizierter Geflüchteten aus der Ukraine" vor. Untersucht werden Möglichkeiten und Herausforderungen für Beschäftigung ukrainischer Flüchtlinge, die nach Februar 2022 nach Deutschland kamen. Mithilfe von Experteninterviews wurden neue Auffassungen zu den Gründen für den im Vergleich zu anderen Ländern geringen Beschäftigungsanteil ukrainischer Geflüchteter in Deutschland generiert und Faktoren identifiziert, die in früheren Studien nicht geäußert wurden. Hinsichtlich des Zusammenhangs zwischen der Effektivität der Beschäftigung ukrainischer Flüchtlinge und dem Employer Branding konnte bisher keine signifikante gegenseitige Beeinflussung festgestellt werden. |
| Abstract: | The article presents the preliminary results of the research project "Employer Branding of German Companies in Attracting Highly Qualified Refugees from Ukraine". The question of opportunities and barriers for employment of Ukrainian refugees who came to Germany after February 2022 is examined. With the help of expert interviews, new opinions were collected on the reasons for the low employment rate of Ukrainian refugees in Germany compared to other countries and factors that were not expressed in previous studies were identified. Regarding the connection between the effectiveness of employing Ukrainian refugees and employer branding, no significant mutual influence has so far been found. |
| Keywords: | Beschäftigung, ukrainische Geflüchtete, deutscher Arbeitsmarkt, Arbeitskräftemangel, Employer Branding, employment, Ukrainian refugees, German labor market, staff shortage / labor shortage, employer branding |
| JEL: | J15 J21 J22 M31 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wifinw:300850 |
| By: | Ananyev, Maxim (University of Melbourne); Poyker, Mikhail (University of Texas at Austin) |
| Abstract: | Inmates' informal code regulates their behavior and attitudes. We investigate whether prisons contribute to the spread of these norms to the general population using an exogenous shock of the Soviet amnesty of 1953, which released 1.2 million prisoners. We document the spread of prison norms in localities exposed to the released ex-prisoners. As inmates' code also ascribes low status to persons perceived as passive homosexuals, in the long run, we find effects on anti-LGBTQ+ hate crimes, homophobic slurs on social media, and discriminatory attitudes. |
| Keywords: | incarceration, prison culture, russia, homosexuals |
| JEL: | J15 M14 N34 N44 P00 Z13 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17138 |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | A strong and timely policy response helped cushion the impact of the COVID19 pandemic and the energy crisis resulting from Russia’s war in Ukraine. Despite a recovery slowdown in 2023, the French economy has remained relatively resilient in the face of financial tightening and weaker euro area external demand. Nevertheless, the crisis response and slower-than-expected recovery have weighed on public finances, with a sizable fiscal underperformance in 2023 reducing fiscal space at a time of rising investment needs for the green and digital transformation. While financial conditions started improving in early 2024, market pressures on sovereign spreads and stock markets rose in early June following the European elections amid political uncertainty. Labor market performance has remained robust, although labor productivity remains below its pre-COVID trend. Against this backdrop, the French authorities have appropriately shifted their focus towards rebuilding buffers and achieving a sustainable modernization of the economy. The reforms of the pension and unemployment benefit systems have already started to yield results. Parliamentary elections are scheduled for June 30 and July 7. The Staff Report was completed on June 17. |
| Date: | 2024–07–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2024/216 |
| By: | Mungase, Sachin; Kothe, Satyanarayan |
| Abstract: | The study explores the application of demand theory in studying consumer spending behaviour and policy analysis, with a focus on food demand and consumption patterns. It reviews various demand function systems and introduces the differential approach as a superior method for modelling demand. The study uses recent phases of the International Comparison Program (ICP) to analyse consumption patterns in Brazil, China, India, Russia, and South Africa. The methodology involves a two-step budgeting process, and the data are collected from three ICP phases for BRICS countries. In the second stage of budgeting, food subcategories and broad categories are analysed using a new version of the CBS level demand system models, originally developed by Keller and Van Driel in 1985 and later modified by Tayebi in 2019. These models, known as differential systems of consumer demand, are based on differential equations of consumer goods’ budget shares. The study presents empirical findings for broad consumption and food subcategories using pooled data from BRICS countries. It uses Tayebi's CBS-PI levels and CBS levels models to estimate results for nine broad consumption groups and food subgroups. The study finds that lower income countries are more responsive to income and price changes. The results show that both the CBS-PI levels and CBS levels models work well for BRICS countries. Spending on necessities like food and non-alcoholic drinks is significant in BRICS countries, while countries with a high real per capita income spend more on alcoholic beverages, tobacco, and narcotics. As income increases, so does demand for services. The study highlights the application of the differential approach to the analysis of consumption patterns between nations. It emphasizes the significance of demand-side influences on the long-term economic structure. The findings could be beneficial for future research and policy-making, particularly in developing countries as they balance economic growth with food security. |
| Keywords: | Demand theory, Differential approach, CBS level demand system models, BRICS countries |
| JEL: | D11 D12 E21 |
| Date: | 2024–07–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:121431 |
| By: | Elliot Aurissergues (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Christophe Blot (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Edgar Carpentier-Charléty; Magali Dauvin (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); François Geerolf (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Eric Heyer (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Mathieu Plane (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po) |
| Abstract: | The eurozone has gone through a series of crises that have sometimes threatened its survival, but these have also led to reforms in its fiscal governance and to changes in how it conducts monetary policy. On the eve of the European elections, 25 years after its creation, the question arises of how well the eurozone's economy has performed in comparison with the US economy. While the trajectories of their GDP per capita were relatively similar between 1999 and 2008, since then they have diverged markedly. We look at the possible causes of this growing gap, distinguishing between supply and demand factors. ■ On the supply side, the eurozone's productivity has grown much less than in the United States over the period as a whole. In contrast, while the employment rate of the workingage population has stagnated in the United States, it has improved significantly in European countries, although there continue to be disparities within the continent. More recently, the divergence has been due to the impact of the energy crisis and the steeper rise in energy prices in Europe as a result of the drop in the supply of Russian natural gas following the outbreak of the Ukraine war. ■ On the demand side, it has to be said that there is a very real deficit in aggregate demand in the eurozone. Saving has clearly outstripped investment since 2010, fuelling global trade imbalances. One reason for this extra saving is a more restrictive fiscal policy in Europe than in the United States. The aggregate under-performance of the eurozone as a whole has gone together with very heterogeneous trajectories within the zone. For the period as whole, the "northern" countries have grown faster than France and the "southern" countries, although some countries, notably Italy, have recently closed part of the gap. The challenge over the years ahead will be to handle fiscal consolidation and its impact on activity. ■ It is imperative not to repeat the mistake of 2011-2014. Fiscal consolidation may be appropriate during a period of economic recovery, but it is pernicious or at least ineffective when the economy is sluggish; if it proves necessary during a period of economic weakness, it will harm activity less if it is gradual, smoothed out and not synchronized across the eurozone. ■ Furthermore, the priority on this side of the Atlantic cannot solely be to restore public finances, when this risks further widening the economic gap with the United States: given the new global and geostrategic challenges, Europe must finance its security, the ecological transition and new green industries. An ambitious European recovery plan should use its structural saving surplus to target both supply and demand, so as to make it possible to meet these challenges and put pressure on the economies, thereby stimulating growth and productivity. Higher potential growth is crucial to ensure the long-term sustainability of the public debt. |
| Date: | 2024–07–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04634067 |
| By: | Célestin Coquidé (UTINAM - Univers, Théorie, Interfaces, Nanostructures, Atmosphère et environnement, Molécules (UMR 6213) - INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UFC - Université de Franche-Comté - UBFC - Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté [COMUE]); José Lages (UTINAM - Univers, Théorie, Interfaces, Nanostructures, Atmosphère et environnement, Molécules (UMR 6213) - INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UFC - Université de Franche-Comté - UBFC - Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté [COMUE]); Dima Shepelyansky (LPT - Laboratoire de Physique Théorique - UT3 - Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier - UT - Université de Toulouse - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - FeRMI - Fédération de recherche « Matière et interactions » - INSA Toulouse - Institut National des Sciences Appliquées - Toulouse - INSA - Institut National des Sciences Appliquées - UT - Université de Toulouse - UT3 - Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier - UT - Université de Toulouse - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Abstract During the April 2023 Brazil–China summit, the creation of a trade currency supported by the BRICS countries was proposed. Using the United Nations Comtrade database, providing the frame of the world trade network associated to 194 UN countries during the decade 2010–2020, we study a mathematical model of influence battle of three currencies, namely, the US dollar, the euro, and such a hypothetical BRICS currency. In this model, a country trade preference for one of the three currencies is determined by a multiplicative factor based on trade flows between countries and their relative weights in the global international trade. The three currency seed groups are formed by 9 eurozone countries for the euro, 5 Anglo-Saxon countries for the US dollar and the 5 BRICS countries for the new proposed currency. The countries belonging to these 3 currency seed groups trade only with their own associated currency whereas the other countries choose their preferred trade currency as a function of the trade relations with their commercial partners. The trade currency preferences of countries are determined on the basis of a Monte Carlo modeling of Ising type interactions in magnetic spin systems commonly used to model opinion formation in social networks. We adapt here these models to the world trade network analysis. The results obtained from our mathematical modeling of the structure of the global trade network show that as early as 2012 about 58% of countries would have preferred to trade with the BRICS currency, 23% with the euro and 19% with the US dollar. Our results announce favorable prospects for a dominance of the BRICS currency in international trade, if only trade relations are taken into account, whereas political and other aspects are neglected. |
| Keywords: | World trade network, International trade, Currency, Opinion formation model |
| Date: | 2023–09–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04641803 |
| By: | Ondarza, Nicolai$cvon |
| Abstract: | Labour has won a landslide in the United Kingdom (UK) snap elections and will now lead the government. Following the mutual estrangement caused by Brexit, among other changes, this provides an opportunity to revitalise relations with the European Union (EU). Particularly in foreign, security and defence policy, cooperation has already increased in the wake of Russia's war of aggression, but mainly on an ad hoc basis. In the medium term, it is not a question of reversing Brexit, but rather of establishing an EU-UK Common Strategic Initiative - in other words, a new model for structured relations with a partner that is very important for the EU and Germany. Here, the EU should also show more flexibility than in the past. |
| Keywords: | Vereinigtes Königreich, Europäische Union, Beziehungen zwischen EU und Großbritannien, Außen- und Sicherheitspolitik, britische Unterhauswahl 2024, Gemeinsame Strategische EU-UK-Initiative, Premierminister Rishi Sunak, Keir Starmer, Labour-Partei, United Kingdom (UK), European Union (EU), Northern Ireland, Brexit, EU-UK Common Strategic Initiative, Rishi Sunak, Kier Starmer, Nigel Farage, Conservative Party, elections, Labour, Liberal Democrats, Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO) |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:300619 |
| By: | Vorrath, Judith; Brozus, Lars |
| Abstract: | Surprise and jubilation in the United Nation Security Council (UNSC): 2028 begins with a bang. The permanent members of the body declare that they will voluntarily renounce their right of veto in cases of mass atrocities. This self-limitation, achieved after a long struggle, would have been unthinkable without the far-reaching reform of the Security Council that preceded it. The initiative, based on an earlier Franco-Mexican proposal and the Code of Conduct of the Accountability, Coherence and Transparency Group (ACT Group), came from the new members of the enlarged UNSC. Since 2027, it has consisted of 27 instead of 15 members. Germany is among the new members. In her first speech after the enlargement, the German Ambassador to the UN noted with a wink that her country had hoped to be represented in 2027/28 even without the reform. After all, Berlin had already announced in 2023 that it would stand for election as a non-permanent member in 2027/28. However, it was not foreseeable at the time that Germany would now be one of the six new semi-permanent members of the Security Council. |
| Keywords: | UN Security Council (UNSC), UN reform, UN Charter, New 6 (N6), Germany, Japan, Brazil, India, South Africa and Nigeria, UN General Assembly (UNGA), Accountability, Coherence and Transparency Group (ACT Group), permanent five (P5), Ezulwini Consensus, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), China, Russia, France, Germany, Africa |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:300617 |
| By: | Klingebiel, Stephan; Baumann, Max-Otto |
| Abstract: | A second presidential term for Donald Trump would undoubtedly have huge impacts on topics in all areas of international relations - topics that are intrinsically relevant to all actors due to the status of the United States as a world power. Trump's political agenda differs considerably from that of earlier Republican U.S. presidents. His populism has forced con-servative internationalism to revert to isolationism. We set out five brief analyses to shed light on areas of activity that are of major importance for global sustainable development and for the Global South: (i) basic features of the international system and the multilateral order, (ii) the United Nations (UN), (iii) international climate policy, (iv) development policy and (v) policy on Africa. These areas each have their own particular dynamics. At the same time, they need to be seen as part of an international order that is currently experiencing upheaval. A similar pattern is likely to be observed in all of these areas: withdrawal from multilateral arrangements and in some cases deliberate steps to undermine them; reduction or termination of financial contributions in areas in which U.S. interests do not appear to be directly involved. Moreover, in some individual cases, Trump is likely (once again) to seek confrontation in multilateral forums with China and other states regarded by him as undesirable. All of this will affect European interests. Firstly, Trump is likely to have an impact on the international community's ability to solve problems, for example in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals and combating climate change. Secondly, if the United States were to withdraw in many areas, this would in all likelihood create opportunities for China, Russia and their allies to exert greater influence. Under 'Trump 2.0', the United States would presumably once again be a principal disruptor of the liberal world order. In the wake of radical global changes (growing importance of China and other actors in the Global South, etc.), a chain of disruptions triggered by the United States is likely to have serious direct and indirect repercussions (functioning of international organisations; pressure to increase the defence budgets of European countries, etc.). While Trump is a driver of structural change in international politics, Biden's re-election would be likely to act as a firewall for a while. Yet Biden might also prove to be a weak partner in managing upheaval in the world order. Regardless of the outcome of the U.S. presidential elections, European actors need to future-proof their policies for a new geopolitical era. For actors interested in an effective multilateral order, one approach to international politics that they could adopt would involve forging or harnessing alliances that can hold up in the face of U.S. government action. In principle, it would probably be advantageous to focus more on 'mixed alliances' of countries with different identities ('western', 'Global South', regional attributes, etc.). As recent years have shown, a resurgence of a bloc-based mindset and respective practices poses risks for joint approaches, for example in identifying progress in the field of international climate policy. Exemplary approaches may include transnational urban climate alliances and the Bridgetown Initiative for the reform of the international financial architecture. |
| Keywords: | USA, Donald Trump, populism, United Nations, development policy, Africa, international relations, global governance, multilateralism, China |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:idospb:300630 |
| By: | Lusine Ivanov-Davtyan |
| Abstract: | How does exposure to a war outside the immediate conflict area influence the educational performance of pupils, and how does this collective impact differ from that of direct family exposure? To address these questions, I link individual-level victim data from the 2020 Armenian-Azerbaijani war with individual school records from periods before and after the conflict. Capitalizing on the lottery-based draft system of Armenian Army and using constructed individual-level data, I find that exposure to war-related casualties at the school level (collective affectedness) prompts a shift in performance towards subjects that increase options for migration and safer living conditions. This results in decreased proficiency in native language and history studies. In contrast, family-level affectedness shapes patriotism and group identity, leading to improved performance in cultural and homeland-related subjects. These findings demonstrate how war affects schooling trajectories, potentially leading to long-term economic effects even decades later. |
| Keywords: | Education, Schooling Performance, Localized War, Violent Conflict |
| JEL: | F51 I25 O12 O15 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cer:papers:wp784 |