nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2024‒08‒19
thirty-one papers chosen by



  1. Economic Impacts of the Sanctions on the Russian Economy and Stabilization Measures for Economic Cooperation between Korea and Russia By Jeong, Minhyeon
  2. Resilience or Instability? Analysis of Agricultural Commodity Markets in the Wake of the Russia-Ukraine War By Goyal, Raghav
  3. Agricultural and Economywide Effects of the War in Ukraine By Countryman, Amanda M.; Litvinov, Valentyn; Kolodiazhnyi, Ivan; Bogonos, Mariia; Nivievskyi, Oleg
  4. Monthly Report No. 1/2024 By Vasily Astrov; Alexandra Bykova; Rumen Dobrinsky; Selena Duraković; Meryem Gökten; Richard Grieveson; Doris Hanzl-Weiss; Gabor Hunya; Branimir Jovanović; Niko Korpar; Sebastian Leitner; Isilda Mara; Olga Pindyuk; Sandor Richter; Marko Sošić; Bernd Christoph Ströhm; Maryna Tverdostup; Adam Żurawski
  5. LNG: Die Bedeutung der US-Importe für die deutsche Gasversorgung By Küper, Malte
  6. Geopolitical Risks and Agricultural Trade Diversification in Southern Africa: Port-level Evidence from the Russia-UkraineWar By Oh, Saera; Lim, Sunghun
  7. Europäischer Tarifbericht des WSI - 2023/2024: Reallöhne haben nach Krisenverlusten weiterhin Aufholbedarf By Janssen, Thilo; Lübker, Malte
  8. WSI European collective bargaining report 2023/2024: Real wages still need to catch up after crisis losses By Janssen, Thilo; Lübker, Malte
  9. Aktuelle Geldpolitik auf beiden Seiten des Atlantiks By Demary, Markus; Taft, Niklas
  10. Shipping Trade and Geopolitical Turmoils: The Case of the Ukrainian Maritime Network By Marc-Antoine Faure; Bárbara Polo Martin; Fabio Cremaschini; César Ducruet
  11. Lessons from the Co-movement of Inflation around the World By Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia; Luca Guerrieri; Matteo Iacoviello; Michele Modugno
  12. A Hodrick-Prescott filter with automatically selected jumps By Maranzano, Paolo; Pelagatti, Matteo
  13. Эмпирическая оценка гетерогенности потребительского спроса к доходам населения по регионам Казахстана // An Empirical Assessment of Consumer Demand Heterogeneity to Household Income by Regions of Kazakhstan By Самат Молдир // Samat Moldir
  14. The fiscal architecture of the EU cohesion policy By Thöne, Michael
  15. Arbeitsmarktintegration ukrainischer Geflüchteter: Eine internationale Perspektive By Kosyakova, Yuliya; Gatskova, Kseniia; Koch, Theresa; Adunts, Davit; Braunfels, Joseph; Goßner, Laura; Konle-Seidl, Regina; Schwanhäuser, Silvia; Vandenhirtz, Marie
  16. Integrating agrifood system strategies with climate change policies and commitments in Tajikistan [in Tajik] By Babu, Suresh; Tohirzoda, Sino; Akramov, Kamiljon; Srivastava, Nandita; Aliev, Jovidon
  17. Integrating agrifood system strategies with climate change policies and commitments in Tajikistan By Babu, Suresh; Tohirzoda, Sino; Akramov, Kamiljon; Srivastava, Nandita; Aliev, Jovidon
  18. Gendered farm work and decision-making: Quantitative evidence from Tajikistan By Mardonova, Mohru; Lambrecht, Isabel; Mahrt, Kristi
  19. The Long-Term Effects of Military Occupations: Evidence from Post-World War II Austria By Eder, Christoph; Halla, Martin; Hilmbauer-Hofmarcher, Philipp
  20. Climate change effects on food security in Tajikistan [in Tajik] By Khakimov, Parviz; Aliev, Jovidon; Thomas, Timothy S.; Ilyasov, Jarilkasin; Pechtl, Sarah; Dunston, Shahnila
  21. Climate change effects on food security in Tajikistan By Khakimov, Parviz; Aliev, Jovidon; Thomas, Timothy S.; Ilyasov, Jarilkasin; Pechtl, Sarah; Dunston, Shahnila
  22. The Long-Term Effects of Military Occupations: Evidence from Post-World War II Austria By Christoph Eder; Martin Halla; Philipp Hilmbauer-Hofmarcher
  23. Welfare and vulnerability in Tajikistan: Evidence from twelve districts in Khatlon Province, 2015–2023 [in Tajik] By Lambrecht, Isabel; Pechtl, Sarah; Mardonova, Mohru; Akramov, Kamiljon T.
  24. Welfare and vulnerability in Tajikistan: Evidence from twelve districts in Khatlon Province, 2015–2023 By Lambrecht, Isabel; Pechtl, Sarah; Mardonova, Mohru; Akramov, Kamiljon T.
  25. La transition écologique en Europe : tenir le cap By Anne Épaulard; Paul Malliet; Anissa Saumtally; Xavier Timbeau
  26. Rent Control from Ancient Rome to Paris Commune: The Factors Behind its Introduction By Konstantin A. Kholodilin
  27. Climate change effects on agriculture in Tajikistan [in Tajik] By Khakimov, Parviz; Aliev, Jovidon; Thomas, Timothy S.; Ilyasov, Jarilkasin; Pechtl, Sarah; Dunston, Shahnila
  28. Climate change effects on agriculture in Tajikistan By Khakimov, Parviz; Aliev, Jovidon; Thomas, Timothy S.; Ilyasov, Jarilkasin; Pechtl, Sarah; Dunston, Shahnila
  29. Revisiting the demand and profitability of chemical fertilizers amid global fuel-food-fertilizer crisis: Evidence from Ethiopia By Assefa, Thomas; Berhane, Guush; Abate, Gashaw T.; Abay, Kibrom
  30. Agricultural production in Tajikistan: Evidence from twelve districts in Khatlon Province, 2015–2023 By Lambrecht, Isabel; Pechtl, Sarah; Aliev, Jovidon; Akramov, Kamiljon T.; Khakimov, Parviz
  31. Agricultural production in Tajikistan: Evidence from twelve districts in Khatlon Province, 2015–2023 [in Tajik] By Lambrecht, Isabel; Pechtl, Sarah; Aliev, Jovidon; Akramov, Kamiljon T.; Khakimov, Parviz

  1. By: Jeong, Minhyeon (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP))
    Abstract: There are concerns that the economic sanctions imposed by the West on Russia will continue even after the end of the Russia-Ukraine war, which began in 2022 and has since prolonged. This is because the nature of the war encompasses a multifaceted structure that cannot be easily explained by the mere clash of interests between Russia and Ukraine, the primary parties involved. Therefore, it may be overly optimistic to expect that the Western sanctions against Russia will be fully lifted following the conclusion of the war. If there is a high likelihood that the Western economic sanctions against Russia will be prolonged, it is necessary to systematically analyze the long-term impact of these sanctions on the Russian economy. Even though Russia's economic growth rates in 2022 and 2023 were more favorable than anticipated by the West, it cannot be definitively stated that the long-term effects of the sanctions will be negligible. This is because the intrinsic nature of the sanctions against Russia is to "impose economic isolation, " suggesting that the prolonged duration of these sanctions is likely to have structurally adverse long-term effects on the Russian economy. Meanwhile, the Government of the Russian Federation is devising and establishing various domestic and international strategies in order to minimize the structural adverse impacts on the economy. By thoroughly re-viewing these domestic and international strategies, it is essential to systematically understand the direction of development within the Russian economy and the demand for international economic cooperation. This understanding will allow for the rapid restoration of economic cooperation between Korea and Russia, and the enhancement of cooperative synergy amid prolonged sanctions. Given this backdrop, this manuscript aims to summarize three key conclusions from the work of Jeong et al. (2023). First, we provide a theoretical and empirical analysis of the long-term impact of Western sanctions on the Russian economy. Second, we review the foreign and domestic policies of the Russian Federation in response to the prolonged sanctions following the war. Third, based on the findings of the first and second analyses, we explore measures to stabilize economic cooperation between Korea and Russia under the anticipated prolonged sanctions.
    Keywords: Russian Economy; sanctions; stabilization measures; Korea and Russia
    Date: 2024–06–27
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kiepwe:2024_020
  2. By: Goyal, Raghav
    Keywords: Agricultural And Food Policy
    Date: 2024
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea22:344005
  3. By: Countryman, Amanda M.; Litvinov, Valentyn; Kolodiazhnyi, Ivan; Bogonos, Mariia; Nivievskyi, Oleg
    Abstract: The war in Ukraine caused export disruptions that jeopardize the availability and affordability of agricultural and food products around the world. This research employs a computable general equilibrium modeling framework to understand the global economic effects of warinduced agricultural export declines under varying success of alternate transport from Ukraine given inability to export through the Black Sea. Results show net global welfare effects ranging from more than $5 billion to nearly $20 billion depending on the success of transport through European Solidarity Lanes.
    Keywords: Agribusiness, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, International Relations/Trade
    Date: 2024–06–01
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iatrcp:344185
  4. By: Vasily Astrov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Alexandra Bykova (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Rumen Dobrinsky (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Selena Duraković (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Meryem Gökten (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Richard Grieveson (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Doris Hanzl-Weiss (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Gabor Hunya (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Branimir Jovanović (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Niko Korpar (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Sebastian Leitner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Isilda Mara (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Olga Pindyuk (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Sandor Richter (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Marko Sošić; Bernd Christoph Ströhm (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Maryna Tverdostup (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Adam Żurawski
    Abstract: Winter Forecast Update Recovering Amid Major Risks Economic Forecasts for Eastern Europe for 2024-26 As 2024 begins, the global economy is weak and regional and global risks abound, yet the outlook for most of CESEE is actually improving. The region has shown a high degree of resilience to fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the highest inflation in decades. Across most of CESEE, inflation is falling, real wages are rising again and central banks have started to cut policy rates. On top of this, labour markets are strong, external balances are improving and tourism is robust. Growth in EU-CEE, the Western Balkans and Moldova will strengthen this year. However, Turkey, Ukraine, Russia and Belarus will post slower growth than in 2023, as they continue to struggle with one or more of still-high inflation, monetary tightening and the fallout from the invasion. From 2025, the recovery should strengthen further, with growth of around 3% or more in EU-CEE, the Western Balkans, Turkey and Moldova. Ukraine’s economy will also continue to grow, but a full recovery is contingent on an end to the war. Growth in Russia will remain below 2%, however, due to sanctions and supply-side constraints, including (most notably) acute labour shortages. External conditions for CESEE are challenging, to put it mildly. Yet growth in the euro area should strengthen this year, as inflation falls, real incomes recover and global trade gathers momentum. The risks to the outlook are large and on the downside. They include a delayed German recovery, the potential for tensions in the Middle East to lift oil prices and disrupt global trade, a Trump victory in the next US election, waning Western support for Ukraine, the stalling of the EU enlargement process, and a lack of reforms within CESEE. Winter 2024 interim forecast update by Statistics Department 1. Global assumptions Risks abound by Richard Grieveson 2. Regional overview Recovering amid major risks by Richard Grieveson 3. Austria and CESEE Recovering growth in the region will help Austria by Doris Hanzl-Weiss 4. Country updates Albania Riding on the crest of a tourism wave by Isilda Mara Belarus Economy recovers from the shocks, but lacks growth drivers by Rumen Dobrinsky Bosnia and Herzegovina Decent economic growth, increased political instability by Selena Duraković Bulgaria Sluggishness likely to prevail in 2024 by Rumen Dobrinsky Croatia Robust tourism sector and rising wages to underpin growth by Bernd Christoph Ströhm Czechia Waiting for Germany by Richard Grieveson Estonia Recession lingers on by Maryna Tverdostup Hungary Slow recovery after a hard landing by Sándor Richter Kazakhstan Economic growth slows but remains strong by Alexandra Bykova Kosovo Finally, visa-free travel to the Schengen area by Isilda Mara Latvia The upswing needs time by Sebastian Leitner Lithuania Households likely to end stagnation by Sebastian Leitner Moldova Economic recovery at high political risk by Gábor Hunya Montenegro Ambitious plans, cautious optimism by Marko Sošić North Macedonia Emerging from the dark? by Branimir Jovanović Poland Back on the growth track by Adam Żurawski Romania Modest recovery amid fiscal consolidation by Gábor Hunya Russia Military production boom drives economic recovery by Vasily Astrov Serbia Well-worn paths by Branimir Jovanović Slovakia Household spending to drive recovery by Doris Hanzl-Weiss Slovenia Getting back to normal after a year of extreme events by Niko Korpar Turkey Challenges persist despite tighter monetary policy by Meryem Gökten Ukraine Persevering amid dwindling Western support by Olga Pindyuk
    Keywords: CESEE, economic forecast, Central and Eastern Europe, Western Balkans, EU, euro area, CIS, war in Ukraine, energy dependence, EU accession, EU Recovery and Resilience Facility, economic growth, labour markets, inflation, stagflation, monetary policy, fiscal policy, GDP, consumer prices, unemployment, current account, fiscal balance, policy rate, exchange rate, political risk, FDI, exports, imports, gas dependence
    JEL: E20 E21 E22 E23 E24 E31 E32 E5 E62 F21 F31 H60 I18 J20 J30 O47 O52 O57 P24 P27 P33 P52
    Date: 2024–01
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:mpaper:mr:2024-01
  5. By: Küper, Malte
    Abstract: Seit dem Ukraine-Krieg hat Flüssiggas aus den USA erheblich an Bedeutung gewonnen und ist nun ein zentraler Bestandteil der deutschen Gasversorgung. Der mittlerweile aufgehobene US-Genehmigungsstopp war kurzfristig unkritisch, verdeutlicht jedoch mögliche langfristige Versorgungsrisiken.
    Date: 2024
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkkur:300557
  6. By: Oh, Saera; Lim, Sunghun
    Keywords: International Development
    Date: 2024
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea22:343735
  7. By: Janssen, Thilo; Lübker, Malte
    Abstract: Auch im Jahr 2023 sind die Reallöhne in der Europäischen Union weiter gesunken - trotz anziehenden Wachstums der Nominallöhne und fallender Inflationsraten. Erst für das laufende Jahr zeichnet sich eine langsame Erholung ab. Dies stabilisiert die Einkommensverteilung zwischen Arbeit und Kapital und stärkt die Binnennachfrage. Aus Sicht Entwicklung der Tariflöhne in der Euro-Zone, 2000-2023 Veränderungen zum Vorjahr in Prozent Quelle: Europäische Zentralbank (Tariflöhne) und AMECO-Datenbank der Europäischen Kommission (Version: 15. Mai 2024), Berechnungen des WSI. der Beschäftigten ist damit die Krise nicht überwunden: Sie haben den Großteil der realen Einkommenseinbußen getragen, die mit dem Energiepreisschock infolge des russischen Überfalls auf die Ukraine verbunden waren. Aus der nachwirkenden Absenkung des Reallohnniveaus ergibt sich für die Lohnpolitik weiterhin Aufholbedarf, um zu einer gerechteren Lastenverteilung zwischen Arbeit und Kapital beizutragen.
    Abstract: Real wages in the European Union continued their decline in 2023-despite an acceleration in nominal wage growth and falling inflation rates. For the current year, there are tentative only signs of a slow recovery of the purchasing power of wages. A resumption of real wage growth would stabilize the functional distribution of income and Trends in negotiated wage rates in the eurozone, 2000- 2023 Change from prior year, in per cent Source: European Central Bank (Indicator of negotiated wage rates) and European Commission, AMECO Database (current as of 15 May 2024), authors' calculations. strengthen domestic demand. However, even under this benign scenario, the crisis is not over from workers' point of view: They have borne the brunt of the real income losses associated with the energy price shock resulting from the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The lingering reduction in real wage levels means that wage policy still needs to catch up to contribute to a fairer distribution of the buren between labour and capital.
    Date: 2024
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wsirep:300555
  8. By: Janssen, Thilo; Lübker, Malte
    Abstract: Real wages in the European Union continued their decline in 2023-despite an acceleration in nominal wage growth and falling inflation rates. For the current year, there are tentative only signs of a slow recovery of the purchasing power of wages. A resumption of real wage growth would stabilize the functional distribution of income and Trends in negotiated wage rates in the eurozone, 2000- 2023 Change from prior year, in per cent Source: European Central Bank (Indicator of negotiated wage rates) and European Commission, AMECO Database (current as of 15 May 2024), authors' calculations. strengthen domestic demand. However, even under this benign scenario, the crisis is not over from workers' point of view: They have borne the brunt of the real income losses associated with the energy price shock resulting from the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The lingering reduction in real wage levels means that wage policy still needs to catch up to contribute to a fairer distribution of the buren between labour and capital.
    Abstract: Auch im Jahr 2023 sind die Reallöhne in der Europäischen Union weiter gesunken - trotz anziehenden Wachstums der Nominallöhne und fallender Inflationsraten. Erst für das laufende Jahr zeichnet sich eine langsame Erholung ab. Dies stabilisiert die Einkommensverteilung zwischen Arbeit und Kapital und stärkt die Binnennachfrage. Aus Sicht Entwicklung der Tariflöhne in der Euro-Zone, 2000-2023 Veränderungen zum Vorjahr in Prozent Quelle: Europäische Zentralbank (Tariflöhne) und AMECO-Datenbank der Europäischen Kommission (Version: 15. Mai 2024), Berechnungen des WSI. der Beschäftigten ist damit die Krise nicht überwunden: Sie haben den Großteil der realen Einkommenseinbußen getragen, die mit dem Energiepreisschock infolge des russischen Überfalls auf die Ukraine verbunden waren. Aus der nachwirkenden Absenkung des Reallohnniveaus ergibt sich für die Lohnpolitik weiterhin Aufholbedarf, um zu einer gerechteren Lastenverteilung zwischen Arbeit und Kapital beizutragen.
    Date: 2024
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wsirep:300552
  9. By: Demary, Markus; Taft, Niklas
    Abstract: Seit der COVID-19-Pandemie und dem russischen Angriffskrieg gegen die Ukraine haben der Euroraum und die USA erhebliche Preissteigerungen erlebt. Sowohl die Europäische Zentralbank (EZB) als auch die US amerikanische Federal Reserve (FED) reagierten mit restriktiver Geldpolitik. Während die EZB mit ihrer kürzlich erfolgten Leitzinssenkung die Zinswende eingeleitet hat, zögert die FED noch damit, den ersten Zinsschritt nach unten zu machen.
    Date: 2024
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkkur:300556
  10. By: Marc-Antoine Faure; Bárbara Polo Martin; Fabio Cremaschini; César Ducruet
    Abstract: Conflicts, whether political, commercial or military, affect transport networks. Operators seek to avoid the most tense areas or reconsider certain routes. Certain links can be disrupted in case of local geopolitical tensions, which can have a significant global impact. The article is devoted to studying Ukraine’s maritime network and identifying changes in these structures because of the conflict that started in 2014. The purpose of the paper is to measure and visualise the main changes in the Ukrainian seaport system and maritime forelands from 2010 until the most recent data available (December 2023), from a network models, bilateral trade and route simulation framework. The principal results confirm the huge impact of military conflict on port connectivity, thereby contributing to the recent literature on shipping network vulnerability.
    Keywords: Black Sea, Complex networks, Shipping Trade, Russian-Ukrainian War
    JEL: F14 F51 R40 L91
    Date: 2024
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drm:wpaper:2024-24
  11. By: Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia; Luca Guerrieri; Matteo Iacoviello; Michele Modugno
    Abstract: The aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic saw a surge in inflation around the world, reflecting rapid increases in the demand for goods, strained supply chains, tight labor markets, and sharp hikes in commodity prices exacerbated by the Russian war on Ukraine. As illustrated in figure 1, this inflation surge was synchronized across advanced and emerging economies, not only for total inflation but also for its core component.
    Date: 2024–06–28
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfn:2024-06-28
  12. By: Maranzano, Paolo; Pelagatti, Matteo
    Abstract: The Hodrick-Prescott filter is a popular tool in macroeconomics for decomposing a time series into a smooth trend and a business cycle component. The last few years have witnessed global events, such as the Global Financial Crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the war in Ukraine, that have had abrupt structural impacts on many economic time series. Moreover, new regulations and policy changes generally lead to similar behaviours. Thus, those events should be absorbed by the trend component of the trend-cycle decomposition, but the Hodrick-Prescott filter does not allow for jumps. We propose a modification of the Hodrick-Prescott filter that contemplates jumps and automatically selects the time points in which the jumps occur. We provide an efficient implementation of the new filter in an R package. We use our modified filter to assess what Italian labour market reforms impacted employment in different age groups.
    Keywords: Institutional and Behavioral Economics
    Date: 2024–07–11
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:feemwp:344134
  13. By: Самат Молдир // Samat Moldir (National Bank of Kazakhstan)
    Abstract: Ввиду различия социально-экономического положения, сложившихся устоев и привычек домохозяйств потребительское поведение может отличаться не только по странам, но и внутри одной экономики. В данной работе анализируется наличие такой гетерогенной реакции потребительского спроса на несколько шоков по регионам Казахстана. Результаты построенных структурных моделей векторных авторегрессий свидетельствуют о наличии различного отклика потребительского спроса по регионам на шоки доходов и кредитования. // Due to differences in socio-economic status, established attitudes and habits of households, consumer behavior may differ not only across countries, but also within the same economy. This paper analyzes the presence of such heterogeneous response of consumer demand to several shocks across the regions of Kazakhstan. The results of the constructed structural vector autoregression models indicate the presence of different responses of consumer demand from region to region to income and credit shocks.
    Keywords: потребительский спрос, модель структурной векторной авторегрессии, гетерогенность спроса по регионам, импульсные отклики, consumer demand, structural vector autoregression model, demand heterogeneity by regions, impulse responses
    JEL: C51 E21 E2
    Date: 2024
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aob:wpaper:53
  14. By: Thöne, Michael
    Abstract: In its current setup, the European Union is often characterised as slow, decision-impeding, inefficient and therefore not really ready for enlargement. The pandemic, the war in Ukraine, the energy crisis and the increasingly uncertain role in the global economy have further increased the high pressure on the EU to undergo modernisation. In this context, structural and Cohesion Policy is of double interest. With 30 per cent of the regular EU budget, it is one of its most important fields of action - one that has historically grown into a complex and opaque maze of objectives and instruments - and is therefore "part of the problem". At the same time, regional policy is traditionally a "part of the solution" whenever the need arises to pave the way for the enlargement and/or deepening of the EU through financial compensation. The paper sheds light on this dual function of Cohesion Policy by examining its fiscal architecture, which forms the underlying framework for convergence and cohesion policies. In several steps, Cohesion Policy is examined in its function as a European financial equalisation system. The history of regional policy is reconstructed as a development in which the equalisation motive always came first, before Cohesion Policy justifications were applied to instrumental or financial expansions of this policy field. The "Mezzogiorno test" shows that the function of financial equalisation - albeit hidden - continues to dominate; alongside the promotional Cohesion Policy, the equalising Cohesion Policy plays de facto a very important role. This is also illustrated quantitatively and with an in-depth look at the little-analysed mechanism that ensures the allocation of EU funds across the Member States and their regions. Not least with regard to this fiscal equalisation formula, known as the Berlin method, the paper formulates several recommendations for the modernisation of structural policy, which are based on the premise that the purpose of Cohesion Policy to act as a financial equalisation is openly recognised and used productively for the further development of this policy area. The character of vertical fiscal equalisation with a horizontal effect and a strong investment focus should be retained, but further developed in accordance with the principle of subsidiarity. In the course of this, the "luxury fiscal equalisation" can also be reduced, which is currently carried out by allocating cohesion funds even to the richest regions of the EU and which costs 27 billion euros per year. A stronger focus on subsidiarity in cohesion policy would also support Member States in implementing modern, place-based policies, which will also make it easier and more efficient to achieve climate change and broader transformation goals.
    Keywords: cohesion policy, European structural and investment funds, EU fiscal equalisation
    JEL: H70 H77 R11
    Date: 2024
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:300246
  15. By: Kosyakova, Yuliya (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany ; Universität Bamberg); Gatskova, Kseniia (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Koch, Theresa (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Adunts, Davit (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Braunfels, Joseph (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Goßner, Laura (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Konle-Seidl, Regina (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Schwanhäuser, Silvia (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Vandenhirtz, Marie (IAB)
    Abstract: "This research report investigates the labor market integration of Ukrainian refugees across various European countries, including many EU member states as well as the UK, Switzerland, and Norway, in the period from Q4 2022 to Q1 2024. Comparing the employment rates of Ukrainian refugees across different countries presents challenges due to the absence of a uniform database, such as the European Labor Force Survey (LFS). To address this, we constructed a comprehensive database that harmonizes employment data from comparable time points and employs consistent definitions for calculating rates. Employment data were obtained from administrative records in countries where available, and from various surveys conducted at different times in other nations. Additionally, this study compiles indicators currently recognized in research as having an influence on labor market integration, using comparable data and definitions to enhance the robustness of the analysis. From the end of 2022 to early 2024, the employment rates of Ukrainian refugees in Europe showed significant variation. By the first quarter of 2024, Germany's employment rate had reached nearly 27 percent, placing it in the European midfield. At the end of 2022, countries such as the UK, the Netherlands, and Lithuania had employment rates exceeding 50 percent, while Croatia, Norway, Romania, Slovenia, Switzerland, and Spain reported rates below 15 percent. Germany also reported a mid-field rate of 20 percent at the end of 2022. Throughout 2023, Denmark, Austria, France, Poland, and Lithuania saw modest increases in employment rates. However, this upward trend did not persist; some countries experienced stagnation, while others, including Romania, saw declines. Conversely, Slovenia, Switzerland, Finland, Spain, and Estonia witnessed slight increases. The UK consistently maintained its high employment rate across the period. In Germany, beyond the influence of seasonal fluctuations, there was a steady annual increase in employment rates, culminating in 27 percent by early 2024. To investigate the reasons behind the varying employment rates of Ukrainian refugees across different European countries, this report delves into the relationships between employment rates and various socio-demographic, institutional, and economic factors. Our objective is to achieve a preliminary, yet more comprehensive understanding of the factors that drive labor market integration of refugees and to assess the impact of these factors. It is important to note that the analyses conducted are descriptive in nature, not causal. They are intended to provide an initial insight into the correlations, helping to identify potential areas for more in-depth, causal research in the future. Multivariate analyses underscore the crucial impact of the demographic composition of newcomers and the institutional and economic conditions in the destination countries on the labor market integration of Ukrainian refugees. Countries with a higher demand for low-skilled labor – measured by the size of the low-status labor market segment or employees in low-skilled occupations – tend to have higher employment rates for these individuals. This may be attributed to the fact that such jobs often have fewer language requirements and other qualifications, allowing for quicker job placements. Additionally, there is a negative correlation between strict labor market regulations, such as enhanced job security measures, and the likelihood of Ukrainian refugees finding employment. Furthermore, a negative correlation exists between the growth rate of unemployment and the employment of Ukrainian refugees, suggesting that newcomers are less likely to secure jobs in countries with increasing unemployment. Social infrastructure significantly impacts the labor market integration of Ukrainian refugees, many of whom are women with children. Consequently, our regression analysis shows that the availability of childcare is correlated with employment rate of refugees. Countries with better childcare facilities tend to see higher employment rates among refugees, as this infrastructure supports the ability of parents, particularly mothers, to enter the workforce. Similarly, comprehensive access to health services also correlates with higher employment rates, as it ensures that refugees are physically and mentally able to work. Interestingly, the relationship between social transfer payments, measured by the ratio of costs for caring for Ukrainian refugee per capita to the gross domestic product per capita of the respective host country, and employment rates is small and statistically insignificant. While it is often assumed that transfer payments play a central role in employment, this hypothesis is not confirmed in our analysis. However, social networks play a critical role in the employment integration of refugees. Countries with a larger Ukrainian community often report higher employment rates among Ukrainian refugees. Additionally, a strong command of English within the destination-country population positively corelates with employment rates, probably because it facilitates better communication and with that integration into the labor market. The integration policy strategies across EU member states and other European countries vary significantly. Some nations adopt a "work first" approach, prioritizing immediate employment without initial preparatory measures such as language courses or qualification measures. This strategy aims at quick job placement but often overlooks the need for the development of comprehensive skill. In contrast, other countries focus on the long-term, sustainable integration into the labor market. These nations implement comprehensive language programs, qualification measures, and targeted job placements that align more closely with the refugees' qualifications. Although this approach may result in so-called "lock-in" effects, where refugees might experience a delayed entry into the labor market, it is more likely to lead to stable employment relationships, jobs that match the refugees' skills, and higher earnings over time. Scandinavian studies underscore these differences in outcomes. Countries that emphasize the "work first" model tend to show higher employment rates for refugees in the short term. However, nations that invest in education and language acquisition demonstrate better integration results in the medium and long term. This success extends beyond mere employment rates and earnings to include broader aspects of social inclusion and quality of life for refugees. Such findings highlight the importance of tailored integration policies that consider both immediate employment needs and long-term societal benefits. The multivariate analyses further confirm the significant impact of demographic factors, particularly family constellation, on labor market integration. There is a statistically significant negative correlation between employment rates and older age and having more children per working-age woman. Finally, the data reveals a positive time trend: employment rates for all demographic groups tend to increase with the length of their residence. This suggests that many of the initial barriers to employment faced by refugees diminish over time, indicating that with longer stays, refugees are more likely to overcome these initial challenges and secure employment. Overall, this report underscores that Germany, with its comprehensive long-term integration strategies, is well-positioned to significantly enhance the employment rates of Ukrainian refugees over the medium to long term. Insights from refugees who arrived between 2013 and 2019 validate this potential, with employment rates reaching 68 percent eight years after arrival. These findings emphasize the necessity of continually reassessing and refining integration strategies to effectively promote the integration of refugees. Such adjustments are crucial not only for improving the immediate economic prospects of refugees but also for contributing to the broader economy, ultimately yielding substantial long-term benefits." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
    Keywords: IAB-Open-Access-Publikation
    Date: 2024–07–16
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabfob:202416
  16. By: Babu, Suresh; Tohirzoda, Sino; Akramov, Kamiljon; Srivastava, Nandita; Aliev, Jovidon
    Abstract: The Declaration on Sustainable Agriculture, Resilient Food Systems, and Climate Action endorsed by over 150 countries at UNFCCC-COP28 highlights global recognition of the unprecedented adverse climate impacts on food systems resilience and the need to expedite the integration of agriculture and food systems into climate action. While integration is necessary to ensure favorable sectoral level climate action outcomes, there are currently no concrete frameworks and case studies showcasing how to support this integration process at the country level. A recent study focused on Tajikistan uses a conceptual framework to undertake such an integration analysis of key national level climate change related and agriculture policy documents. It identifies synergies and existing gaps and provides recommendations on strengthening sectoral integration to achieve climate change goals. This study was funded by the USAID mission in Tajikistan and USAID’s Comprehensive Action for Climate Change Initiative (CACCI)-Asia under their support to the Committee for Environmental Protection (CEP) of Tajikistan toward the implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) through technical support from the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    Keywords: agrifood systems; climate change; policies; rice; Tajikistan; Asia; Central Asia
    Date: 2024
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ceaspb:141640t
  17. By: Babu, Suresh; Tohirzoda, Sino; Akramov, Kamiljon; Srivastava, Nandita; Aliev, Jovidon
    Abstract: The Declaration on Sustainable Agriculture, Resilient Food Systems, and Climate Action endorsed by over 150 countries at UNFCCC-COP28 highlights global recognition of the unprecedented adverse climate impacts on food systems resilience and the need to expedite the integration of agriculture and food systems into climate action. While integration is necessary to ensure favorable sectoral level climate action outcomes, there are currently no concrete frameworks and case studies showcasing how to support this integration process at the country level. A recent study focused on Tajikistan uses a conceptual framework to undertake such an integration analysis of key national level climate change related and agriculture policy documents. It identifies synergies and existing gaps and provides recommendations on strengthening sectoral integration to achieve climate change goals. This study was funded by the USAID mission in Tajikistan and USAID’s Comprehensive Action for Climate Change Initiative (CACCI)-Asia under their support to the Committee for Environmental Protection (CEP) of Tajikistan toward the implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) through technical support from the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    Keywords: agrifood systems; climate change; policies; rice; Tajikistan; Asia; Central Asia
    Date: 2024
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ceaspb:141640
  18. By: Mardonova, Mohru; Lambrecht, Isabel; Mahrt, Kristi
    Abstract: Quantitative data collected in August and September 2018 in 12 districts of Khatlon Province, called “The Assessment of Nutrition-Sensitive Value Chains in the FtF ZOI in Tajikistan†were employed to analyze gender differences in participation in crop production and marketing activities, and to understand the association between women’s employment and their decision-making power at home. The dataset contains general information on the households’ farm activities, and detailed information of production practices for households’ main horticultural crops (vegetables, fruits, melons and cucurbitae).
    Keywords: Tajikistan; Central Asia; Asia; nutrition; value chains; gender; crop production; marketing; women's empowerment; employment; decision making
    Date: 2024
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ceaspb:145188
  19. By: Eder, Christoph; Halla, Martin; Hilmbauer-Hofmarcher, Philipp
    Abstract: How does military occupation affect long-term economic development? We use the post-World War II occupation of Austria as a laboratory setting. Austria was divided into different occupation zones for ten years. The Soviet occupation was exploitative, while the Western Allied occupation was more supportive. After ten years of different occupation regimes, the regions returned to a single nation-state. We estimate the impact of different occupation regimes on long-term economic development. Methodologically, we combine a spatial regression discontinuity design with a difference-in-differences approach. We find that areas in the former Soviet zone are still less economically developed today. These areas are less populated, host fewer and lower paying jobs, and their residents are more likely to commute outside the former Soviet zone. The most plausible mechanism for these long-lasting effects are agglomeration effects triggered by a large migration shock from East to West as the population fled the advancing Soviet army.
    Keywords: military occupation; migration; economic development; World War II; Austria; agglomeration effects
    Date: 2024–07
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wus005:65558588
  20. By: Khakimov, Parviz; Aliev, Jovidon; Thomas, Timothy S.; Ilyasov, Jarilkasin; Pechtl, Sarah; Dunston, Shahnila
    Abstract: Climate change is one of the main challenges for food security in Tajikistan in the medium and long term. Tajikistan’s Agri-Food System and Sustainable Development Program (ASDP) for the period up to 2030 defined food and nutrition security as one of six priorities. Additionally, climate change is one of the key obstacles to the achievement of the country’s strategic objective defined in the National Development Strategy (NDS) 2016–2030, which is to improve the living standards of the population, and one of the four strategic priorities, which is to ensure food security and access to quality nutrition by 2030. The effects of climate change on food security in Tajikistan were examined using IFPRI’s International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) by simulating climate change and no climate change (baseline) scenarios between 2015 and 2050.
    Keywords: Tajikistan; Central Asia; Asia; climate change; food security; sustainable development; nutrition
    Date: 2024
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ceaspb:141633t
  21. By: Khakimov, Parviz; Aliev, Jovidon; Thomas, Timothy S.; Ilyasov, Jarilkasin; Pechtl, Sarah; Dunston, Shahnila
    Abstract: Climate change is one of the main challenges for food security in Tajikistan in the medium and long term. Tajikistan’s Agri-Food System and Sustainable Development Program (ASDP) for the period up to 2030 defined food and nutrition security as one of six priorities. Additionally, climate change is one of the key obstacles to the achievement of the country’s strategic objective defined in the National Development Strategy (NDS) 2016–2030, which is to improve the living standards of the population, and one of the four strategic priorities, which is to ensure food security and access to quality nutrition by 2030. The effects of climate change on food security in Tajikistan were examined using IFPRI’s International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) by simulating climate change and no climate change (baseline) scenarios between 2015 and 2050.
    Keywords: Tajikistan; Central Asia; Asia; climate change; food security; sustainable development; nutrition
    Date: 2024
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ceaspb:141633
  22. By: Christoph Eder (Independent, formerly JKU Linz); Martin Halla (Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business); Philipp Hilmbauer-Hofmarcher (Department of Economics, Central European University)
    Abstract: How does military occupation affect long-term economic development? We use the post-World War II occupation of Austria as a laboratory setting. Austria was divided into different occupation zones for ten years. The Soviet occupation was exploitative, while the Western Allied occupation was more supportive. After ten years of different occupation regimes, the regions returned to a single nation-state. We estimate the impact of different occupation regimes on long-term economic development. Methodologically, we combine a spatial regression discontinuity design with a difference-in-differences approach. We find that areas in the former Soviet zone are still less economically developed today. These areas are less populated, host fewer and lower paying jobs, and their residents are more likely to commute outside the former Soviet zone. The most plausible mechanism for these long-lasting effects are agglomeration effects triggered by a large migration shock from East to West as the population fled the advancing Soviet army.
    Keywords: Military occupation, migration, economic development, World War II, Austria, agglomeration effects
    JEL: R11 R12 R23 J61 N44 N94
    Date: 2024–07
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwwuw:wuwp366
  23. By: Lambrecht, Isabel; Pechtl, Sarah; Mardonova, Mohru; Akramov, Kamiljon T.
    Abstract: Household survey data from February-March 2023 and February-March 2015 were analyzed to document changes in welfare of households in twelve districts of Khatlon Province, USAID’s Zone of Influence (ZOI), over the last eight years. Key findings: • Housing conditions improved, indicating improved living conditions. Only 1 percent of households had improved sanitation in 2015, but nearly half (49 percent) of all households did so in 2023. • Total consumption expenditures on food, non-food, and durables increased nearly 10 percent (in real terms) between 2015 and 2023 • Expenditures on food increased, but these were used to purchase more expensive food rather than improving dietary quality. This led to a stagnation in diet diversity among women of which 70 percent have inadequate dietary diversity. Household consumption patterns do show improvements over time. • Poverty declined by about 10.4 percent, but movements of households in and out of poverty between 2015 and 2023 suggest that a significant share of households are at risk of falling back into poverty in the face of adversity. • Correlates with consumption expenditures and poverty demonstrate that households with more household members, with fewer livelihood sources, and in more remote locations are worse off. Households with more women are more likely to be poor given women’s limited income generating opportunities. • Households that participated in agricultural development activities were approximately 12.7 percent less likely to be poor than other households. Recommended actions The findings underscore the importance of the priorities specified in the Government of Tajikistan’s Agri-Food System and Sustainable Development Program (ASDP), specifically strategic priority 4 on food security and safety, and motivate the following policy recommendations: • Continue to support healthy diets through improved access to food as well as behavior change communication related to dietary diversity and consuming healthy food. • Further research should serve to understand pathways to lifting farmers out of poverty, including analyzing what works and why when implementing agricultural interventions. • Continued efforts are needed to mitigate women's disproportionate susceptibility to poverty and their vulnerability to poverty-induced outcomes.
    Keywords: Tajikistan; Asia; Central Asia; Asia; foods; housing; surveys; consumption; households; welfare; hygiene; livelihoods; agricultural development; diet; poverty
    Date: 2024
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ceaspb:140310t
  24. By: Lambrecht, Isabel; Pechtl, Sarah; Mardonova, Mohru; Akramov, Kamiljon T.
    Abstract: Household survey data from February-March 2023 and February-March 2015 were analyzed to document changes in welfare of households in twelve districts of Khatlon Province, USAID’s Zone of Influence (ZOI), over the last eight years. Key findings: • Housing conditions improved, indicating improved living conditions. Only 1 percent of households had improved sanitation in 2015, but nearly half (49 percent) of all households did so in 2023. • Total consumption expenditures on food, non-food, and durables increased nearly 10 percent (in real terms) between 2015 and 2023 • Expenditures on food increased, but these were used to purchase more expensive food rather than improving dietary quality. This led to a stagnation in diet diversity among women of which 70 percent have inadequate dietary diversity. Household consumption patterns do show improvements over time. • Poverty declined by about 10.4 percent, but movements of households in and out of poverty between 2015 and 2023 suggest that a significant share of households are at risk of falling back into poverty in the face of adversity. • Correlates with consumption expenditures and poverty demonstrate that households with more household members, with fewer livelihood sources, and in more remote locations are worse off. Households with more women are more likely to be poor given women’s limited income generating opportunities. • Households that participated in agricultural development activities were approximately 12.7 percent less likely to be poor than other households. Recommended actions The findings underscore the importance of the priorities specified in the Government of Tajikistan’s Agri-Food System and Sustainable Development Program (ASDP), specifically strategic priority 4 on food security and safety, and motivate the following policy recommendations: • Continue to support healthy diets through improved access to food as well as behavior change communication related to dietary diversity and consuming healthy food. • Further research should serve to understand pathways to lifting farmers out of poverty, including analyzing what works and why when implementing agricultural interventions. • Continued efforts are needed to mitigate women's disproportionate susceptibility to poverty and their vulnerability to poverty-induced outcomes.
    Keywords: Tajikistan; Asia; Central Asia; Asia; foods; housing; surveys; consumption; households; welfare; hygiene; livelihoods; agricultural development; diet; poverty
    Date: 2024
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ceaspb:140310
  25. By: Anne Épaulard (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Paul Malliet (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Anissa Saumtally (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Xavier Timbeau (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)
    Abstract: L'Union européenne (UE) s'est engagée dans une transition écologique ambitieuse via le Pacte vert européen qui vise à atteindre la neutralité carbone d'ici 2050. Ce Policy brief examine les politiques environnementales mises en place par la Commission von der Leyen et analyse leur impact sur l'économie et les sociétés européennes. Le Pacte vert inclut des mesures pour réduire les émissions de gaz à effet de serre, promouvoir l'économie circulaire et protéger la biodiversité. Bien que des progrès aient été réalisés, tels que la diminution des émissions et l'augmentation des investissements dans les technologies vertes, plusieurs défis subsistent, comme l'illustre la crise énergétique que les États membres ont dû affronter à la suite de la seconde invasion de l'Ukraine par la Russie, dans l'urgence et sans forcément le degré de coordination qui pouvait être attendu. Par ailleurs, le contexte économique international n'est pas foncièrement favorable à l'approche régulationniste portée par l'UE. Il est de plus en plus marqué par une confrontation croissante entre les deux géants économiques que sont les États-Unis et la Chine et qui se décline par la mise en œuvre de politiques de décarbonation fondées sur la subvention massive de leur industrie domestique. Pour surmonter ces défis, il est important pour l'UE d'augmenter les investissements publics et privés dans les infrastructures durables, de réviser les cadres réglementaires pour encourager l'innovation et de renforcer la coopération internationale. La transition écologique en Europe est à un carrefour critique, et la réussite de cette démarche dépendra de la capacité des gouvernements nationaux et des institutions communautaires à collaborer afin de trouver des accords qui, sans pénaliser les populations, permettent de garder le cap dessiné par le Pacte vert. Recommandations : ■ Maintenir l'effort d'investissement vers les technologies décarbonées dans le temps en cohérence avec la stratégie industrielle européenne déployée et accroître celui vers la recherche et le développement, nécessaires à la réussite de nos objectifs de long terme ; ■ Procéder dans le cadre de la réforme du marché de l'électricité à un effort de subvention massif des énergies renouvelables pour permettre de faire converger les prix de l'électricité pratiqués dans l'UE (28 c/kWh) vers ceux des États-Unis (16 c/kWh) ; ■ Accroître la dotation du Fonds social pour le climat pour le volet compensation, et ce afin de ne pas pénaliser les populations et les activités particulièrement exposées à l'introduction de l'ETS2 portant sur les activités de transport et de chauffage.
    Keywords: Transition écologique
    Date: 2024–06–21
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04622328
  26. By: Konstantin A. Kholodilin
    Abstract: Urban areas confront a chronic shortage of housing, especially in the low-rent segment. This precarious situation is further exacerbated by major challenges, like the destruction of housing by wars and natural catastrophes, rapid increase of demand, or pandemics cutting incomes. In response, the authorities implement rent control that slows rent increases or even freezes rents. Rent control is ubiquitous, widely used at a large scale since World War I. However, its roots lie in a far more remote past, the first documented examples stemming from the Ancient Rome. Despite social and technological differences between then and now, the solutions found more than 2000 years ago bear a striking similarity with modern policies. Rapidly rising property prices, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the Ukrainian war pushed rent control back to the top of the political agenda. In this study, using logit model and survival analysis, I investigate the factors that led to introduction of rent control. I find that wars, foundation of universities, and presence of Jewish communities made the introduction of rent control more likely
    Keywords: rent control; housing policy; Antiquity; Middle Ages; logit model; Cox proportional hazards regression
    JEL: N40 N90 O18
    Date: 2024
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp2094
  27. By: Khakimov, Parviz; Aliev, Jovidon; Thomas, Timothy S.; Ilyasov, Jarilkasin; Pechtl, Sarah; Dunston, Shahnila
    Abstract: Climate change is one of the main challenges for Tajikistan’s agricultural development in the medium and longer term. Tajikistan’s Agri-Food System and Sustainable Development Program (ASDP) for the period up to 2030 defined climate change as one of four key challenges to the development of agriculture and food systems. Accordingly, the Program accentuates the importance climate-optimized agriculture to ensure sustainable development of the sector. The effects of climate change on agriculture in Tajikistan was examined using IFPRI’s International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) by simulating climate change and no climate change (baseline) scenarios between 2015 and 2050.
    Keywords: climate change; agricultural development; agrifood systems; sustainable development; crops; irrigation; Tajikistan; Central Asia
    Date: 2024
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ceaspb:141637t
  28. By: Khakimov, Parviz; Aliev, Jovidon; Thomas, Timothy S.; Ilyasov, Jarilkasin; Pechtl, Sarah; Dunston, Shahnila
    Abstract: Climate change is one of the main challenges for Tajikistan’s agricultural development in the medium and longer term. Tajikistan’s Agri-Food System and Sustainable Development Program (ASDP) for the period up to 2030 defined climate change as one of four key challenges to the development of agriculture and food systems. Accordingly, the Program accentuates the importance climate-optimized agriculture to ensure sustainable development of the sector. The effects of climate change on agriculture in Tajikistan was examined using IFPRI’s International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) by simulating climate change and no climate change (baseline) scenarios between 2015 and 2050.
    Keywords: climate change; agricultural development; agrifood systems; sustainable development; crops; irrigation; Tajikistan; Central Asia
    Date: 2024
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ceaspb:141637
  29. By: Assefa, Thomas; Berhane, Guush; Abate, Gashaw T.; Abay, Kibrom
    Abstract: We revisit the state of smallholder fertilizer demand and profitability in Ethiopia in the face of the recent global fuel–food–fertilizer price crisis triggered by the Russian–Ukraine war and compounded by other domestic supply shocks. We first examine farmers’ response to changes in both fertilizer and food prices by estimating price elasticity of demand. We then revisit the profitability of fertilizer by computing average value–cost ratios (AVCRs) associated with fertilizer application before and after these crises. We use three-round detailed longitudinal household survey data, covering both pre-crisis (2016 and 2019) and post-crisis (2023) production periods, focusing on three main staple crops in Ethiopia (maize, teff, and wheat). Our analysis shows that fertilizer adoption, use, and yield levels were increasing until the recent crises, but these trends seem halted by these crises. We also find relatively large fertilizer price elasticity of demand estimates, ranging between 0.4 and 1.1, which vary across crops and are substantially larger than previous estimates. We find suggestive evidence that households with smaller farm sizes are relatively more responsive to changes in fertilizer prices. We also document that farmers’ response to increases in staple crop prices is not as strong as perceived and hence appears to be statistically insignificant. Finally, we show important dynamics in the profitability of chemical fertilizer. While the AVCRs show profitable trends for most crops, the share of farmers with profitable AVCRs declined following the fertilizer price surge. Our findings offer important insights for policy focusing on mitigating the adverse effects of fertilizer price shocks.
    Keywords: fertilizer application; smallholders; household surveys; yield response factor; shock; Africa; Eastern Africa; Ethiopia
    Date: 2024
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:2263
  30. By: Lambrecht, Isabel; Pechtl, Sarah; Aliev, Jovidon; Akramov, Kamiljon T.; Khakimov, Parviz
    Abstract: Survey data from 2000 households in 12 districts of Khatlon Province, USAID’s Zone of Influence (ZOI), were analyzed to document changes in the agriculture sector between 2015 and 2023. Key findings • Participation in agriculture remained constant at 85 percent of households, yet the average cultivated area significantly decreased from 2015 to 2023, likely due to the parallel increase in the number of households in the study area as well as the further division of dehkan farms. • Cropping patterns have changed since 2015. Among others, we find a stark increase in cultivation of maize, whereas cotton is grown at similar frequency but on a significantly smaller average plot area. Overall, we observe a positive increase in the diversity of (semi-)annual crops. • Mechanization is used for land preparation of plots for nearly all major crops now, up from much lower levels in 2015. Mechanization for harvesting significantly increased on plots with fodder crops (from 6 percent to 15 percent) and maize plots (from 2 percent to 8 percent). Most households rely on rental services as few own the needed machinery. • More households have water pumps, greenhouses, and cold storage, and more household and presidential plots having irrigation in 2023 than in 2015. Agricultural innovations including drip irrigation and solar panels also emerge but are still implemented at very low levels (
    Keywords: Tajikistan; Asia; Central Asia; Asia; poultry; agricultural production; surveys; cotton; cattle; households; maize; field size; mechanization
    Date: 2024
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ceaspb:140190
  31. By: Lambrecht, Isabel; Pechtl, Sarah; Aliev, Jovidon; Akramov, Kamiljon T.; Khakimov, Parviz
    Abstract: Survey data from 2000 households in 12 districts of Khatlon Province, USAID’s Zone of Influence (ZOI), were analyzed to document changes in the agriculture sector between 2015 and 2023. Key findings • Participation in agriculture remained constant at 85 percent of households, yet the average cultivated area significantly decreased from 2015 to 2023, likely due to the parallel increase in the number of households in the study area as well as the further division of dehkan farms. • Cropping patterns have changed since 2015. Among others, we find a stark increase in cultivation of maize, whereas cotton is grown at similar frequency but on a significantly smaller average plot area. Overall, we observe a positive increase in the diversity of (semi-)annual crops. • Mechanization is used for land preparation of plots for nearly all major crops now, up from much lower levels in 2015. Mechanization for harvesting significantly increased on plots with fodder crops (from 6 percent to 15 percent) and maize plots (from 2 percent to 8 percent). Most households rely on rental services as few own the needed machinery. • More households have water pumps, greenhouses, and cold storage, and more household and presidential plots having irrigation in 2023 than in 2015. Agricultural innovations including drip irrigation and solar panels also emerge but are still implemented at very low levels (
    Keywords: Tajikistan; Asia; Central Asia; Asia; poultry; agricultural production; surveys; cotton; cattle; households; maize; field size; mechanization
    Date: 2024
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ceaspb:140191

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