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on Confederation of Independent States |
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Issue of 2024‒08‒12
thirteen papers chosen by |
| By: | Frömmert, Paula |
| Abstract: | [Vorwort:] Die Frage nach der angemessenen Reaktion von Aufnahmestaaten auf umfangreiche Migrationsbewegungen nimmt im öffentlichen Diskurs des 21. Jahrhunderts eine prominente Rolle ein. Das System zur Erfassung der Personen, zur Beurteilung der Berechtigung ihres (dauerhaften) Aufenthalts im Zielland, ihre Versorgung und ihre Integration in die Aufnahmegesellschaft sind fortwährend Gegenstand politischer und rechtlicher Auseinandersetzung. Besondere tagespolitische Relevanz haben diese Fragen in Europa in den vergangenen Jahren zweimal erhalten: einerseits im Rahmen der Fluchtbewegung aus nordafrikanischen und westasiatischen Ländern aufgrund von Konflikten im Rahmen des "Arabischen Frühlings" ab 2011, andererseits im Rahmen der Fluchtbewegung aus der Ukraine aufgrund der russischen Invasion im Februar 2022 und des nachfolgenden und andauernden Krieges. Von den in der Europäischen Union geltenden gemeinsamen Mechanismen für den Umgang mit geflüchteten Menschen ist die sog. Dublin III-Verordnung wohl die bekannteste. Infolge der Fluchtbewegung aus der Ukraine hat sich der Rat der Europäischen Union im Jahr 2022 mit seinem Durchführungsbeschluss (EU) 2022/382 erstmals dazu entschieden, ein anderes Instrument zum Umgang mit der hohen Zahl an Menschen zu aktivieren: die sogenannte Massenzustrom-Richtlinie, die ein besonderes Aufenthaltsrecht und vereinfachtes Schutzgewährungsverfahren regelt. Diese Bachelorarbeit setzt sich mit der Entscheidung des Rates der Europäischen Union auseinander, diese Verordnung im Rahmen der Fluchtbewegung aus der Ukraine zu aktivieren, nicht aber im Rahmen der Fluchtbewegung aus Nordafrika und Westasien. (...) |
| Keywords: | Durchführungsbeschluss (EU) 2022/382, Massenzustrom-Richtlinie, EU-Grundrechtecharta, Migration, Ukraine, Europa, EU, Grundrechte, Flucht, Asyl |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fomarb:300255 |
| By: | Benjamin Bürbaumer (CED - Centre Émile Durkheim - IEP Bordeaux - Sciences Po Bordeaux - Institut d'études politiques de Bordeaux - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Avec le récent sommet des BRICS, les questions monétaires apparaissent à nouveau en haut de l'agenda politique international. Le risque de subir une exclusion des circuits de paiement internationaux suscite en effet une vive inquiétude dans de nombreux pays. Néanmoins, les sanctions économiques sont une arme à double tranchant. Elles peuvent affaiblir le pays visé mais elles peuvent aussi encourager une réorganisation de l'économie mondiale permettant d'éviter les effets néfastes des sanctions et débouchant sur une modification du jeu des alliances internationales. |
| Keywords: | Sanctions financières, Guerre en Ukraine, Russie, Pouvoir structurel, Chine, Monnaie, Système de paiement |
| Date: | 2023–10–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04614638 |
| By: | Elie Bouri (Adnan Kassar School of Business, Lebanese American University, Lebanon); Matteo Foglia (Department of Economics and Finance, University of Bari “Aldo Moro†, Italy); Sayar Karmakar (Department of Statistics, University of Florida, USA); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield 0028, South Africa) |
| Abstract: | Based on the rationale that returns and volatility are interrelated, we apply a multilayer network framework involving the return layer and volatility layer of cryptocurrencies, NFTs, and DeFi assets over the period January 1, 2018 - January 23, 2024. The results show significant connectedness in each of the return and volatility layers, with major cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum playing a central role. Large spikes in the level of connectedness are noticed around COVID-19 pandemic and Russia-Ukraine conflict, and Bitcoin and Ethereum emerge are net transmitters of returns and volatility shocks, emphasizing their significant role around these crisis periods. Notably, a strong positive rank correlation exists between the return and volatility layers, highlighting the significant risk-return relationship in the digital asset class. The findings suggest that economic actors should not ignore the interconnectedness between the return and volatility layers in the system of cryptocurrencies, NFTs, and DeFi assets for the sake of a comprehensive analysis of information flow. Otherwise, a share of the information flow concerning the return-volatility nexus across these digital assets would be missed, possibly leading to inferences regarding asset pricing, portfolio allocation, and risk management. |
| Keywords: | Multilayer networks, Spillover effects, return-volatility, cryptocurrencies, NFTs, DeFi, COVID-19, Russia-Ukraine conflict |
| JEL: | C32 G10 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:202432 |
| By: | Spieckermann, Holger; Nakao, Christiane; Preissing, Sonja; Sen, Katrin |
| Abstract: | Social crises such as the corona crisis and the war in Ukraine do not leave social work untouched. On the one hand, these crises transform society and the social work; on the other hand, they reinforce social and economic inequalities. Since the Covid 19 pandemic, the issue of digitalisation has become more important. Since the first lockdown in 2020, a shift into the digital space can be observed. So, processes of digitalisation poses new questions and challenges for social work - both for the professionals and the clients. In our paper, we will examine and discuss the reflections of social workers on digitalisation in social work practice. For this purpose, we were conducting a survey with professionals of social work on digitalisation in the neighbourhood, e.g. the effects of the pandemic and the Ukraine crisis on social processes in the neighbourhood. Our research questions are: What impact does the pandemic have on the use of digital media in the neighbourhood? How do community work professionals assess the current digital and social changes for their work and their clients? Which competences in the use of digital tools have professionals and inhabitants developed? The pandemic has led to an increased need for digital media and methods in community work. Most professionals have expanded their digital skills during the pandemic in order to overcome the challenges of virtual communication and collaboration. Besides, the Ukraine crisis has increased social inequalities. Migrants, refugees and single parents in particular were hit harder by the consequences of the crisis; e.g. financial worries and discrimination also became more prevalent. In this paper the findings about the knowledge and reflections of the professionals regarding the challenges and opportunities of digitalisation and migration in social work practice will be presented. |
| Keywords: | Pandemie, Digitalisierung, Sozialraum, Ukrainekrieg, Soziale Arbeit mit Adressat:innen |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iubhso:300243 |
| By: | Katarzyna Chec; Bartosz Uniejewski; Rafal Weron |
| Abstract: | Recent studies provide evidence that decomposing the electricity price into the long-term seasonal component (LTSC) and the "residual", predicting both separately, and then combining their forecasts can bring significant accuracy gains in day-ahead electricity price forecasting. However, not much attention has been paid to predicting the LTSC, and the last 24 hourly values of the estimated pattern are typically copied for the target day. To address this gap, we introduce a novel approach which extracts the trend-seasonal pattern from a price series extrapolated using price forecasts for the next 24 hours. Analyzing data from the German and Spanish markets, and considering parsimonious autoregressive and LASSO-estimated models, we find that improvements in predictive accuracy can be as high as 16% over a 5-year test period covering the Covid-19 pandemic, the 2021/2022 energy crisis, and the war in Ukraine. |
| Keywords: | Electricity price forecasting; Long-term seasonal component; Day-ahead market; Combining forecasts |
| JEL: | C22 C51 C53 Q41 Q47 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ahh:wpaper:worms2404 |
| By: | Romano, Giulia C.; Taube, Markus |
| Abstract: | Duisburg was the first German city to establish official relations with a Chinese city, Wuhan. Less out of strategic calculation or recognition of the global significance of China's reform and opening-up policy, but rather thanks to their common industrial roots in the steel industry, the two cities entered an exchange in 1982. In the following two decades, Duisburg supported Wuhan's development with technical, administrative, and economic assistance, while the latter committed itself primarily in a symbolic fashion to the partnership. Then, after a period of reduced intensity, the partnership was strengthened anew in the early 2010s. Committed to the initiative of reviving the ancient Silk Road, Duisburg subsequently made this connection with Wuhan, and more generally with China, its distinctive brand. The partnership still exists, despite the significant changes that occurred in the international and national context in the very recent years, and above all in China. The city of Duisburg is firm in maintaining an open-door policy and upholding its ties with Wuhan, thereby deviating from the current mainstream of German and EU orientation. This paper explores the components and characteristics of this seemingly "all-weather" friendly relationship, namely its origins, actors, reasons, and objectives through a historical perspective. It looks first at the very beginning of the partnership with Wuhan, allowing for a better understanding of the history of this city's commitment to China. Then, it addresses the 2010s, a period in which relations between Duisburg and its Chinese partners have significantly intensified. Finally, it covers the contemporary period, illustrating how the city has adapted its relations with China to the enormous upheavals caused by the politico-economic developments in China, the Covid-19 pandemic, the current war in Ukraine, and the pressures of the domestic and international contexts. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:udedao:300269 |
| By: | Frondel, Manuel |
| Abstract: | Dieser Beitrag nimmt eine Kosten-Nutzen-Abwägung des Ausbaus der Erneuerbaren-Energietechnologien zur Stromerzeugung in Deutschland vor. Im Ergebnis zeigt sich, dass dieser Ausbau die Stromverbraucher seit Einführung des Erneuerbaren-Energien-Gesetz (EEG) im Jahr 2000 knapp 300 Mrd. Euro gekostet hat. Für die kommenden beiden Jahrzehnte stehen zudem Zahlungsverpflichtungen in ähnlicher Größenordnung bereits fest. Mit dem nach Russlands Angriff auf die Ukraine forcierten Erneuerbaren-Ausbau nimmt die Politik aber noch deutlich über diese rund 600 Milliarden hinaus gehende Kosten in Kauf. Eine Kosten-Nutzen-Analyse ist vor diesem Hintergrund unabdingbar, nicht zuletzt auch deshalb, weil weitere Kosten in dreistelliger Milliardenhöhe nicht in den 600 Milliarden enthalten sind, etwa die Kosten für den ohne Erneuerbare-Expansion nicht in so starkem Maße nötigen Netzausbau. Vor diesem Hintergrund sollte beim weiteren Erneuerbaren-Ausbau streng auf Kostendisziplin geachtet werden, indem die Bundesnetzagentur künftig ausschließlich technologieneutrale, statt technologiespezifischer Ausschreibungen für den Erneuerbaren-Ausbau vornimmt. Dadurch kommen zwar nur die kosteneffizientesten regenerativen Technologien zum Zuge, aber es bleiben im Klima- und Transformationsfonds Spielräume für Zukunftsinvestitionen, die das Wachstumspotential der deutschen Volkswirtschaft stärker beflügeln könnten als der Ausbau der erneuerbaren Energien. Im Gegensatz zu den hohen Kosten nimmt sich der Nutzen des Ausbaus der erneuerbaren Energien bescheiden aus. So belief sich der Anteil der Erneuerbaren am Primärenergieverbrauch im Jahr 2022 auf lediglich rund 17 %. Die Treibhausgasneutralität im Jahr 2045 allein mit Erneuerbaren erreichen zu wollen, erscheint bei einem solch geringen Anteil als eine schwer bewältigbare Herausforderung. |
| Abstract: | This article weighs up the costs and benefits of the expansion of renewable energy technologies for electricity generation in Germany. According to calculations of the German Ministry of Economic Affairs, this expansion has cost electricity consumers almost 300 billion euros since the introduction of the Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG) in 2000. Moreover, payment obligations of a similar magnitude are already in place for the next two decades. However, with the accelerated expan¬sion of renewables following Russia's attack on Ukraine, politicians are accepting costs well in excess of this approximately 600 billion. Given the costs already incurred, a cost-benefit analysis is imperative, not least because further costs in the three-digit billion range are not included in the 600 billion figure, such as the costs for grid expansion, which would not be necessary to the same extent without the expansion of renewables. Against this backdrop, strict attention should be paid to cost discipline in the further expansion of renewables by ensuring that the Federal Network Agency only issues technology-neutral rather than technology-specific tenders for the expansion of renewables in future. This means that only the most cost-efficient renewable technologies will be installed. Consequently, there will be budgetary scope for future investments that could boost the growth potential of the German economy more than the expansion of renewable energies. Contrasting with the high costs, the benefits of expanding renewable energies are modest. For example, the share of renewables in primary energy consumption in 2022 was only around 17 %. With such a low share, achieving greenhouse gas neutrality in 2045 with renewables alone appears to be a tremendous challenge. |
| Keywords: | Energiewende, Photovoltaik, Wärmewende |
| JEL: | Q21 I38 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwimat:300232 |
| By: | Sebastian Dullien (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK)); Jan Behringer (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK)) |
| Abstract: | Die Moeglichkeit der Auszahlung einer steuer- und abgabenfreien Inflationsausgleichspraemie war eine wichtige, in der konzertierten Aktion 2022 vereinbarte Massnahme zur Stabilisierung der Kaufkraft im Energiepreisschock nach der russischen Ukraine-Invasion. Anhand einer Online-Befragung wird in diesem Policy Brief abgeschaetzt, welcher Anteil der abhaengig Beschaeftigten in Deutschland in den Jahren 2022 bis 2024 eine Inflationsausgleichspraemie erhalten hat. Dabei zeigt sich, dass die ueberwiegende Mehrheit der sozialversicherungspflichtig Beschaeftigten von einer solchen Praemie profitiert hat. Ausserdem hatte die Praemie fuer viele Personen eine so relevante Groessenordnung, dass sie dadurch eine spuerbare finanzielle Entlastung wahrnahmen und deutlich seltener von Plaenen zur Konsumeinschraenkung berichteten als Personen ohne Inflationsausgleichspraemie. In der Summe wurden fast 26 Millionen Beschaeftigten mehr als 52 Mrd. Euro ausgezahlt. Die Mindereinnahmen bei Steuern und Sozialabgaben werden dabei auf rund 40 Mrd. Euro geschaetzt. Die Lohnstueckkosten sind bis zu gut 1, 5 Prozent niedriger ausgefallen, als es ohne diese Praemie der Fall gewesen waere, wenn die gleiche Kaufkraft bei den Haushalten erreicht worden waere. |
| Keywords: | Energiepreisschock, Inflationsausgleichsprämie, Inflation, Zweitrundeneffekte, Einmalzahlung |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imk:pbrief:171-2024 |
| By: | Kim, Dongsoo (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade); Kim, Soo-Dong (Kora); Lim, Soyoung (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade); Kim, Kye Hwan (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade); Min, Hyeok Ki (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade); Shin, Yoon Sung (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade); Cho, Eun Kyo (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade); Park, Byungyul (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade); Choi, Jeonghwan (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade); Bing, Hyun Ji (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade); Kang, Ji Hyun (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade) |
| Abstract: | Despite a projected global growth of 3% in 2024, uncertainties cloud the economic outlook due to ongoing conflicts, upcoming elections, and rising interest rates. Korea aims to navigate these challenges by boosting exports, attracting foreign investment, and building a more independent trade network through agreements with the US, EU, Africa, and Central America. The country seeks a proactive approach to counter trade issues and establish a mutually beneficial cooperation network. |
| Keywords: | global trade; Russia-Ukraine war; Israel-Hamas conflict; India elections; US elections; Biden; Trump; EU elections; far right; protectionism; economic security; nationalism; Korea; exports; inflation |
| JEL: | F00 F01 F02 F10 F13 F21 F42 |
| Date: | 2024–03–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kietia:2024_003 |
| By: | Jaime Arellano-Bover; Shmuel San |
| Abstract: | We study how job mobility, firms, and firm-ladder climbing can shape immigrants’ labor market success. Our context is the mass migration of former Soviet Union Jews to Israel during the 1990s. Once in Israel, these immigrants faced none of the legal barriers that are typically posed by migration regulations around the world, offering a unique backdrop to study undistorted immigrants’ job mobility and resulting unconstrained assimilation. Rich administrative data allows us to follow immigrants for up to three decades after arrival. Differential sorting across firms and differential pay-setting within firms both explain important shares of the initial immigrant-native wage gap and subsequent convergence dynamics. Moreover, immigrants are more mobile than natives and faster at climbing the firm ladder, even in the long term. As such, firm-to-firm mobility is a key driver of these immigrants’ long-run prosperity. Lastly, we quantify a previously undocumented job utility gap when accounting for non-wage amenities, which exacerbates immigrant-native disparities based on pay alone. |
| Keywords: | immigration, firms, job mobility, labor market assimilation |
| JEL: | J31 J61 F22 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11177 |
| By: | Kimsanova, Barchynai; Herzfeld, Thomas |
| Keywords: | Agricultural And Food Policy, Political Economy, Demand And Price Analysis |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea22:343596 |
| By: | Martin Guzi; Maciej Duszczyk; Peter Huber; Ulrike Huemer; Marcela Veselková |
| Abstract: | The paper provides an overview of the situation of Ukrainian refugees in the labour markets of Austria, Czechia, Poland, and Slovakia, emphasizing the initiatives aimed at facilitating their integration. Refugees face challenges in securing employment adequate to their skills due to language barriers, limited capacity in childcare services, strict entry conditions for skilled occupations, and uncertainty surrounding their refugee status. The chapter concludes with recommendations for enhancing the labour market integration of refugees. |
| JEL: | E24 F22 J41 |
| Date: | 2024–07–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cel:dpaper:68 |
| By: | Ferdinand Pot; Janez Šušteršič |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the differences between the organisation of budget management in selected government administrations in the Western Balkans and the Republic of Moldova and good practice across the European Union (EU). It observes that the ministry of finance (MoF) in these administrations typically engages in direct budget negotiations with a large number of budget organisations. This practice is in stark contrast with the budgeting approach observed in the EU, where the MoF only deals directly with government ministries and a limited number of constitutional bodies. The paper highlights the adverse consequences for the strategic role of the MoF for fiscal policy, the accountability of line ministries for budgeting and service delivery in their sector and the introduction of modern public financial management instruments such as medium-term budgeting and performance-based budgeting. This paper recommends that governments reduce the number of first-level budget organisations and give line ministries more responsibility for budget management in their sector. At the same time, the paper recommends strengthening line ministries’ accountability for budget management towards the parliament. |
| Keywords: | administrative budget classification, budget management, budget reform, first-level budget organisations, government and budgeting, medium-term budgeting, ministerial accountability, ministry of finance, performance-based budgeting |
| Date: | 2024–07–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:govaac:72-en |