|
on Confederation of Independent States |
|
Issue of 2024‒06‒17
eighteen papers chosen by |
| By: | NECHIFOR Victor (European Commission - JRC); FERRARI Emanuele (European Commission - JRC); NDONG NTAH Marcellin; NANDELENGA Martin; YALEW Amsalu Woldie |
| Abstract: | The Kenyan economy was significantly affected by the global supply chain disruptions stemming from the Russian invasion. The macroeconomic impacts were largely driven by global fertilizer and fossil fuel price increases. Rural households were nevertheless affected by raising food prices, notably those of vegetable oils. Kenyan Government intervention through fossil fuel subsidies contributed to an ease of the cost of living crisis by reducing prices, but came at a considerable fiscal cost. Fertilizer subsidies proved to enhance food security by boosting agricultural output with positive fiscal secondary effects. |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc136628&r= |
| By: | Schrader, Klaus |
| Abstract: | The Russian war of aggression against Ukraine on February 24, 2022, prompted the German government to fundamentally rethink Germany's political and economic relations with Russia. A “change of times” was proclaimed which meant a caesura in foreign and security policy as well as the overcoming of economic dependencies on Russia. This article analyzes whether Germany has substantially reduced its foreign trade relations with Russia more than a year after this proclamation. It is shown that on the German export side, there was no substantial dependence on exports to Russia in any significant sector in the year of war 2022. The loss of importance of trade with Russia had no negative impact on the overall development of German exports. However, the momentum of Russian exports was already broken after the occupation of Crimea in 2014. On the import side, in contrast, a substantial reduction in trade relations did not take place before. Until 2022, dependencies on Russia as a supplier of raw materials remained high, especially in the case of pipeline-bound natural gas with a Russian import share of 55 percent. Germany corrected this political error at high cost and made itself independent of Russian natural gas imports by the end of 2022. |
| Abstract: | Der russische Angriffskrieg gegen die Ukraine am 24. Februar 2022 veranlasste die Bundesregierung, die politischen und wirtschaftlichen Beziehungen Deutschlands zu Russland grundlegend zu überdenken. Es wurde eine „Zeitenwende“ ausgerufen, die eine Zäsur in der Außen- und Sicherheitspolitik sowie die Überwindung wirtschaftlicher Abhängigkeiten von Russland bedeutete. In diesem Beitrag wird analysiert, ob Deutschland seine Außenhandelsbeziehungen zu Russland mehr als ein Jahr nach dieser Proklamation deutlich reduziert hat. Es wird gezeigt, dass auf der deutschen Exportseite im Kriegsjahr 2022 in keinem bedeutenden Sektor eine wesentliche Abhängigkeit von Exporten nach Russland bestand. Der Bedeutungsverlust des Handels mit Russland hatte keine negativen Auswirkungen auf die Gesamtentwicklung der deutschen Exporte. Allerdings war die Dynamik der russischen Exporte bereits nach der Besetzung der Krim im Jahr 2014 gebrochen. Auf der Importseite kam es dagegen bisher nicht zu einer wesentlichen Reduzierung der Handelsbeziehungen. Bis 2022 blieb die Abhängigkeit von Russland als Rohstofflieferant hoch, insbesondere bei pipelinegebundenem Erdgas mit einem russischen Importanteil von 55 Prozent. Deutschland hat diesen politischen Fehler mit hohem Aufwand korrigiert und sich bis Ende 2022 von russischen Erdgasimporten unabhängig gemacht. |
| Keywords: | Germany, Russia, International Trade, Sanctions |
| JEL: | F14 F51 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkie:295209&r= |
| By: | Schrader, Klaus |
| Abstract: | Der russische Angriffskrieg gegen die Ukraine am 24. Februar 2022 veranlasste die Bundesregierung, die politischen und wirtschaftlichen Beziehungen Deutschlands zu Russland grundlegend zu überdenken. Es wurde eine „Zeitenwende“ ausgerufen, die eine Zäsur in der Außen- und Sicherheitspolitik sowie die Überwindung wirtschaftlicher Abhängigkeiten von Russland bedeutete. In diesem Beitrag wird analysiert, ob Deutschland seine Außenhandelsbeziehungen zu Russland mehr als ein Jahr nach dieser Proklamation deutlich reduziert hat. Es wird gezeigt, dass auf der deutschen Exportseite im Kriegsjahr 2022 in keinem bedeutenden Sektor eine wesentliche Abhängigkeit von Exporten nach Russland bestand. Der Bedeutungsverlust des Handels mit Russland hatte keine negativen Auswirkungen auf die Gesamtentwicklung der deutschen Exporte. Allerdings war die Dynamik der russischen Exporte bereits nach der Besetzung der Krim im Jahr 2014 gebrochen. Auf der Importseite kam es dagegen bisher nicht zu einer wesentlichen Reduzierung der Handelsbeziehungen. Bis 2022 blieb die Abhängigkeit von Russland als Rohstofflieferant hoch, insbesondere bei pipelinegebundenem Erdgas mit einem russischen Importanteil von 55 Prozent. Deutschland hat diesen politischen Fehler mit hohem Aufwand korrigiert und sich bis Ende 2022 von russischen Erdgasimporten unabhängig gemacht. |
| Abstract: | The Russian war of aggression against Ukraine on February 24, 2022, prompted the German government to fundamentally rethink Germany's political and economic relations with Russia. A “change of times” was proclaimed which meant a caesura in foreign and security policy as well as the overcoming of economic dependencies on Russia. This article analyzes whether Germany has substantially reduced its foreign trade relations with Russia more than a year after this proclamation. It is shown that on the German export side, there was no substantial dependence on exports to Russia in any significant sector in the year of war 2022. The loss of importance of trade with Russia had no negative impact on the overall development of German exports. However, the momentum of Russian exports was already broken after the occupation of Crimea in 2014. On the import side, in contrast, a substantial reduction in trade relations did not take place before. Until 2022, dependencies on Russia as a supplier of raw materials remained high, especially in the case of pipeline-bound natural gas with a Russian import share of 55 percent. Germany corrected this political error at high cost and made itself independent of Russian natural gas imports by the end of 2022. |
| Keywords: | Germany, Russia, Sanctions, International Trade |
| JEL: | F14 F51 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkie:295208&r= |
| By: | Simola, Heli |
| Abstract: | A sharp increase in fixed investment has been a key factor supporting Russia's economy in recent years. This brief highlights the drivers of Russia's recent investment boom. During 2022, the first year of the full-blown war in Ukraine, investment growth was dominated by increased budget spending, war-related investment in construction of transport and warehouse infrastructure, as well as investment in oil & gas production in western Siberia. In 2023, the emphasis in investment growth shifted to firms funding investment out of pocket and manufacturing, particularly firms involved in war-related or resource-intensive branches. Although intellectual property (IP) only represents a small share of Russia's total investment, IP investment has increased sharply in recent years. |
| Keywords: | Russia, war, economy, investment |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bofitb:295238&r= |
| By: | Adema, Joop (University of Munich); Aksoy, Cevat Giray (European Bank for Reconstruction and Development); Giesing, Yvonne (Ifo Institute for Economic Research); Poutvaara, Panu (University of Munich) |
| Abstract: | What is the causal effect of conflict on refugees' return and integration? To answer this question, we launched a panel survey of Ukrainian refugees across Europe in June 2022 and combined it with geocoded conflict data. Most refugees plan to return, and initial return intentions strongly predict actual return. Those who initially plan to settle outside Ukraine integrate faster. Increased conflict intensity in the home municipality discourages return there, but not to Ukraine as a whole. It also has no effect on the likelihood of working. Liberation of the home district increases return, while increased pessimism about the outcome of the war reduces return intentions. |
| Keywords: | conflict, Ukraine, migration, refugees, return migration, integration |
| JEL: | D74 F22 J15 J24 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16962&r= |
| By: | Abdulla, Kanat; Mourelatos, Evangelos |
| Abstract: | In this study, we investigate the employers' attitude towards Russian migrants in Kazakhstan's labor market. We conduct a field experiment by sending over 1600 fictitious job applications to real job openings posted on one of the largest job search portals in the country. The job applicants included a local Kazakh, a local Russian, a migrant from Kyrgyzstan, and a migrant from Russia. We found significant differences in employment outcomes across ethnic groups in the selected occupations. Specifically, Russian migrants were significantly less likely to receive an interview invitation. Interestingly, sympathy towards Russian applicants was weakest for occupations located more than 830 km from the Russian borders and those requiring high-skilled workers. Our findings provide evidence for less favorable attitudes towards migrant workers from Russia during the Russia-Ukraine conflict. |
| Keywords: | discrimination, labour market, migrant workers, field experiment |
| JEL: | C93 J71 J78 J64 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1438&r= |
| By: | Bergmann, Julian; Kosmehl, Miriam; Langbein, Julia; Sasse, Gwendolyn |
| Abstract: | Ukraine and its international partners are faced with an unprecedented task: advancing recovery efforts and the EU accession process while also providing critically important military and financial support to help Ukraine defend its sovereignty against Russian military aggression. Uncertainty over when and how the war will end makes planning for recovery and EU membership even more complex, but also underlines the need for their integration. Given a shared focus on a transformative modernisation, both processes can reinforce each other. Along this line of thinking, the EU has adopted the Ukraine Facility to provide reliable funding to Ukraine up to 2027, with the aim of supporting recovery and key institutional and administrative reforms required for Ukraine's EU accession. The main roadmap for implementation of both is the Ukrainian government's so-called Ukraine Plan. However, recovery and EU accession will not automatically create synergies, and may, at worst, overstretch Ukrainian government and private-sector capacities as well as societal support. To maximise synergies between the processes, policymakers should consider the following recommendations: ● Set priorities that address short-term demands and have long-term ambitions. Recovery measures should be prioritised that improve security, meet the basic needs of the people and are crucial to the functioning of the Ukrainian economy. In EU accession negotiations, the "fundamentals" and chapters that stimulate economic growth and competitiveness should be prioritised, because utilising the accession process to stimulate economic growth today can directly contribute to transformative rebuilding and vice versa. ● Ensure society-wide ownership of the Ukraine Plan. The German and Ukrainian governments, as co-hosts of the Ukraine Recovery Conference (URC) in June 2024, should make sure that the URC is the starting point for institutionalising an inclusive approach in the implementation of the Ukraine Plan. This can be achieved through the promotion of issue-specific coalitions of different actors across multiple levels of governance in Ukraine beyond this year's URC. ● Engage international donors in supporting the Ukraine Plan and leveraging recovery to accelerate Ukraine's EU accession path. Germany, as an EU and G7 member state, could serve as an important bridge-builder between EU and non-EU supporters of Ukraine's recovery. EU member states should align their bilateral assistance to Ukraine with the Ukraine Plan. ● Tailor technical assistance and capacity building. An asset map, developed jointly by Ukrainian and international actors, should identify and systematise strengths and unused potential (e.g. regarding infrastructure, public finance and industrial and commercial activities) in specific regions and municipalities, and in the private sector, taking into account the different development strategies that have evolved at different levels of governance over the past months. The Ukrainian diaspora in EU countries should be incentivised to actively engage in these processes without predicating their involvement on unrealistic expectations of a quick and large-scale return. ● Prepare for intermediate steps in Ukraine's EU accession. The German government should continue to advance the debate between EU institutions and member states about intermediate steps in Ukraine's EU accession before formal membership, including Ukraine's progressive integration into the EU single market. ● Adopt open and transparent communication. Building on open and transparent dialogue, both the Ukrainian government and the EU will need to develop an effective communication strategy towards the Ukrainian people to uphold their support for EU accession. Effective communication within the EU is required to limit the political space of veto players. |
| Keywords: | Ukraine, Ukraine-EU relations, recovery, reconstruction, EU accession, EU enlargement policy |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:idospb:294866&r= |
| By: | NEIFAR, MALIKA; HDIDER, ANIS |
| Abstract: | Through an empirical analysis of the impact of fluctuations in the international prices of crude oil, natural gas and wheat on the US stock market performance, the study seeks to show evidence of the investor social network sentiment effects post the Ukraine war declaration on February 24, 2022. A comparative approach was used for Ukraine's pre- vs post-war declaration period. The considered models are of the GARCH-X type. Founding show that only post-war declaration; investor sentiment as well as the economic factors such as the prices of raw materials (including crude oil and natural gas) and food (wheat) have caused the volatility of the S&P 500 index return, while market volatility (VIX) affect negatively the stock market return pre- and post-war declaration. |
| Keywords: | S&P500 stock index; American market volatility (the VIX index); American investor sentiment on tweeter, Ukraine War; commodity prices (crude oil, natural gas and wheat); GARCH-X model. |
| JEL: | E44 G11 G15 |
| Date: | 2024–05–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:120920&r= |
| By: | Nikolai A. Manushkin (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper tests the applicability of various asset pricing models: Capital Pricing Model (CAPM), 3-factor and 5-factor Fama-French models to the Russian stock market, which has not been not well studied. We capture specific factors of this market, create several market portfolios, and use bootstrapped GRS test (Gibbons, Ross, & Shanken, 1989) for models’ quality test. The empirical result shows that the 5-factor model fits the Russian market better than the other models, the value factor is redundant, and the size factor also loses its significance |
| Keywords: | Asset Pricing Models, Fama-French Factor Model, GRS |
| JEL: | G12 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:95/fe/2024&r= |
| By: | Frondel, Manuel; Gerster, Andreas; Hiemann, Philipp; Kaestner, Kathrin; Pahle, Michael; Schwarz, Antonia; Singhal, Puja |
| Abstract: | Im Herbst 2022 fand die zweite Erhebung des im Rahmen des BMBF-geförderten Kopernikus-Projekts Ariadne etablierten Wärme- & Wohnen-Panels unter ca. 15.000 Haushalten statt. Das Panel verknüpft in bislang einzigartiger Weise Informationen zum Gebäudebestand und dem Endenergiebedarf mit Angaben zu den sozioökonomischen Charakteristika der Haushalte. Ein Schwerpunkt lag auf den Auswirkungen der durch den Angriff Russlands auf die Ukraine verursachten Energiepreiskrise auf die privaten Haushalte. So wurde gefragt, wie stark die Teilnehmenden von den steigenden Energiepreisen betroffen sind und welche Maßnahmen sie dagegen ergreifen würden. Lediglich 28% der Teilnehmenden planten jedoch, ihren Heizenergieverbrauch im Winter 2022/2023 stark oder sehr stark zu reduzieren. Ein bemerkenswertes Ergebnis ist auch, dass nur etwa 21% der Antwortenden angaben, die Informationskampagne der Bundesregierung mit dem Titel "80 Millionen gemeinsam für den Energiewechsel" wahrgenommen zu haben. Andererseits hat die überwältigende Mehrheit von etwa 88% der Befragten von der für Herbst 2022 geplanten, letztlich aber nicht eingeführten Gasumlage gehört. Als größten Hinderungsgrund in Bezug auf energetische Modernisierung wurden steigende Preise im Baugewerbe genannt, die Unsicherheit über die Preisentwicklung verschiedener Energieträger war ebenfalls von großer Bedeutung. |
| Abstract: | In fall 2022, the second survey of the Heating & Living Panel, which was established as part of the BMBF-funded Kopernikus project Ariadne, was conducted among around 15, 000 households. The panel combines information on the building stock and final energy demand with data on the socio-economic characteristics of households in a unique way. One focus was on the effects of the energy price crisis caused by Russia's attack on Ukraine on private households. Participants were asked how badly they were affected by rising energy prices and what measures they would take to counteract this. However, only 28% of participants planned to reduce their heating energy consumption significantly or very significantly in the winter of 2022/2023. Another notable result is that only around 21% of respondents stated that they had taken note of the German government's information campaign entitled "80 million together for the energy transition". On the other hand, the overwhelming majority of around 88% of respondents had heard about the gas levy planned for fall 2022 but ultimately not introduced. Rising prices in the construction industry were cited as the biggest obstacle to energy modernization, while uncertainty about the price development of various energy sources was also of great importance. |
| Keywords: | Endenergiebedarf, Heizkosten, Modernisierungsrate |
| JEL: | D12 Q41 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwimat:295239&r= |
| By: | Alvaro Silva; Julian di Giovanni; Muhammed A. Yildirim (Center for International Development at Harvard University); Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan |
| Abstract: | We estimate a multi-country multi-sector New Keynesian model to quantify the drivers of domestic inflation during 2020–2023 in several countries, including the United States. The model matches observed inflation together with sector-level prices and wages. We further measure the relative importance of different types of shocks on inflation across countries over time. The key mechanism, the international transmission of demand, supply and energy shocks through global linkages helps us to match the behavior of the USD/Euro exchange rate. The quantification exercise yields four key findings. First, negative supply shocks to factors of production, labor and intermediate inputs, initially sparked inflation in 2020–2021. Global supply chains and complementarities in production played an amplification role in this initial phase. Second, positive aggregate demand shocks, due to stimulative policies, widened demand-supply imbalances, amplifying inflation further during 2021–2022. Third, the reallocation of consumption between goods and service sectors, a relative sector-level demand shock, played a role in transmitting these imbalances across countries through the global trade and production network. Fourth, global energy shocks have differential impacts on the US relative to other countries’ inflation rates. Further, complementarities between energy and other inputs to production play a particularly important role in the quantitative impact of these shocks on inflation. |
| Keywords: | Russia, Ukraine, China, COVID-19, Inflation |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cid:wpfacu:440&r= |
| By: | Ayse D. Lokmanoglu; Carol K. Winkler; Kareem El Damanhoury; Virginia Massignan; Esteban Villa-Turek; Keyu Alexander Chen |
| Abstract: | With globalization's rise, economic interdependence's impacts have become a prominent factor affecting personal lives, as well as national and international dynamics. This study examines RT's public diplomacy efforts on its non-Russian Facebook accounts over the past five years to identify the prominence of economic topics across language accounts. Computational analysis, including word embeddings and statistical methods, investigates how offline economic indicators, like currency values and oil prices, correspond to RT's online economic content changes. The results demonstrate that RT uses message reinforcement associated economic topics as an audience targeting strategy and differentiates their use with changing currency and oil values. |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2405.01798&r= |
| By: | Bardt, Hubertus; Demary, Markus; Grömling, Michael; Henger, Ralph; Hentze, Tobias; Obst, Thomas; Pimpertz, Jochen; Schaefer, Thilo; Schäfer, Holger; Seele, Stefanie |
| Abstract: | Die wirtschaftlichen Rahmenbedingungen haben sich in den letzten Monaten nicht wesentlich verbessert. Die geoökonomischen Schocks - der Krieg in der Ukraine und die Unsicherheiten in Osteuropa, die Konflikte im Nahen Osten, die politischen Ungewissheiten im Fernen Osten sowie das insgesamt nicht von Kooperation geprägte Miteinander in der Weltgemeinschaft - bremsen auch weiterhin das Tempo der Weltwirtschaft. Hinzu kommt das gegenwärtige Fehlen der über lange Zeit gewohnt hohen Wirtschaftsimpulse aus China. Trotz der angespannten geopolitischen Lage wird in der vorliegenden Prognose davon ausgegangen, dass die Lieferketten und die Energieversorgung stabil und gesichert bleiben. Die auch damit einhergehende Normalisierung der Inflationsraten eröffnet den Notenbanken den Spielraum, im weiteren Jahresverlauf eine Senkung der Zentralbankzinsen einzuleiten. Die aktuell höheren Zinsen und ihre Auswirkungen für die Finanzierung von Investitionen entfalten aber auch in diesem Jahr noch ihre dämpfenden Wirkungen. Vor diesem Hintergrund bleiben die Aussichten für die Weltkonjunktur moderat. Die globale Wirtschaftsleistung wird 2024 mit einem ähnlichen Expansionstempo wie im Jahr 2023 in Höhe von 2 ½ Prozent zulegen. Beim globalen Warenhandel ist nach der Schrumpfung im Jahr 2023 von einer sachten Erholung im Jahr 2024 mit einem Wachstum von 1 Prozent auszugehen. Das reale Bruttoinlandsprodukt wird in Deutschland im Jahr 2024 stagnieren. Die Erwartung einer anhaltend schwachen wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung wird von Unternehmensbefragungen untermauert. Vor allem die Industrie und die Bauwirtschaft bleiben in der Rezession verhaftet. Mit Blick auf die gesamtwirtschaftliche Nachfrage kommen positive Impulse ausschließlich vom Konsum. Der private Konsum liefert den größten Wachstumsbeitrag von einem ½ Prozentpunkt. Die wieder deutlich niedrigere Inflationsrate von rund 2 ¼ Prozent unterstützt dies. Marginal positive Impulse kommen vom Staatskonsum. Dagegen bremst die Investitionstätigkeit das Wachstumstempo auch in diesem Jahr empfindlich ab. Der Außenhandel bleibt schwach und der Außenbeitrag entfaltet keine konjunkturellen Impulse. Trotz der Rekordmarke von 46 Millionen Erwerbstätigen im Jahresdurchschnitt 2024 werden die Auswirkungen der konjunkturellen Schwäche am Arbeitsmarkt in Deutschland stärker sichtbar. Die Arbeitslosenquote erhöht sich im Jahresdurchschnitt 2024 auf fast 6 Prozent. Das Staatsdefizit wird sich auf 68 Milliarden Euro oder -1 ½ Prozent des Bruttoinlandsprodukts belaufen. Es ist durchaus plausibel, dass sich vieles zum Besseren wendet und damit eine schnellere und vor allem kräftigere Erholung auf globaler Ebene sowie in Deutschland eingeläutet wird. Jedoch hängt dies im Wesentlichen von den politischen Entwicklungen in vielen Ländern ab. Doch auch die deutsche Wirtschaftspolitik ist gefordert, die Stagnationskrise zu überwinden. Dazu bedarf es eines kraftvollen angebotspolitischen Anschubs, mit dem die allgemeinen Standortbedingungen ernsthaft verbessert, aber auch die speziellen Investitionsbedingungen für die vielfältigen Transformationsaufgaben gestaltet werden. |
| Keywords: | Konjunktur, Weltwirtschaft, Arbeitsmarkt, Staatshaushalt, Finanzmärkte |
| JEL: | E2 E3 E5 E6 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkrep:294842&r= |
| By: | Dina Ait Lahcen (Laboratoire de Recherche en Management des Organisations, Editorial Department, Droit des affaires et Développement Durable, FSJES – Souissi, Université Mohammed V de Rabat. Maroc); Nour Eddin Amghar (LERSG - Laboratoire d’Études et de Recherches en Sciences de Gestion, FSJES – Agdal, Université Mohammed V de Rabat. Maroc.); Mustapha Oukassi (LARMODAD - Laboratoire de Recherche en Management des Organisations, Editorial Department, Droit des affaires et Développement Durable, FSJES – Souissi, Université Mohammed V de Rabat. Maroc) |
| Abstract: | The disruptions of the Covid-19 crisis, the aftermath of the Russian-Ukrainian war, the general rise in prices, etc. have left a chaotic impression on companies around the world. In Morocco, local companies and SMEs, in particular, have not been spared. They have been severely impacted, with an unprecedented rate of reported failures. The interest of this contribution is, therefore, to study the academic corpus related to this topic by addressing a number of aspects that seem to us of considerable importance in the current context. To do so, we have proceeded to a bibliographical analysis of the concept of business failure in order to better define it, by presenting its different aspects and dimensions. Thus, the main research question that emerges is: what are the different approaches and predictive models to best assess the risk of business failure? The review of the literature has allowed us to raise the existence of three main approaches to failure, namely the static, dynamic and processual approach and the existence of several types of alternative statistical and probabilistic models to assess and prevent the risk of its appearance. |
| Abstract: | Les perturbations de la crise Covid-19, les suites de la guerre russo-ukrainienne, la hausse généralisée des prix, etc. ont laissé une impression chaotique sur les entreprises du monde entier. Au Maroc, les entreprises locales et les PME, en particulier, n'ont pas été épargnées. Elles ont été sévèrement touchées, avec un taux de défaillances déclarées sans précédent. L'intérêt de cette contribution est donc d'étudier le corpus académique relatif à ce sujet en abordant un certain nombre d'aspects qui nous semblent d'une importance considérable dans le contexte actuel. Pour ce faire, nous avons procédé à une analyse bibliographique du concept de défaillance d'entreprise afin de mieux le définir, en présentant ses différents aspects et dimensions. Ainsi, la principale question de recherche qui se dégage est la suivante : quelles sont les différentes approches et modèles prédictifs permettant d'évaluer au mieux le risque de défaillance d'entreprise ? La revue de la littérature nous a permis de soulever l'existence de trois principales approches de la défaillance, à savoir l'approche statique, dynamique et processuelle et l'existence de plusieurs types de modèles statistiques et probabilistes alternatifs pour évaluer et prévenir le risque de son apparition. |
| Keywords: | Approches, Défaillance, Évaluation, Modèles Risque, Risque |
| Date: | 2023–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04232653&r= |
| By: | Stukach, Victor; Shumakova, Oksana |
| Abstract: | The paper solves an applied problem: at a specific object of observation, the scientific school of Omsk State University named after P. A. Stolypin "Problems of infrastructural development of the agro-industrial complex of the Siberian region", to consider the prospects of the university in the context of responding to the challenges of the time, characterized by turbulence of world economic relations. Working hypothesis: based on the measurement and assessment of the potential of the scientific school, to identify the relevance of the research, the state and priorities in the scientific support of the agrarian economy of the region. The school's assets have accepted completed scientific developments, publications based on the materials of defended dissertations, monographs, educational publications, and publications of the school in an international database for analysis RePEc.org , other scientific publications during the period of the school's operation. The content analysis method was used to determine the demand for scientific products that aroused the greatest interest among consumers (readers). The most in-demand, time-sensitive research for the agricultural economy has been identified. The data obtained were a source in determining the prospects for working in the conditions of socio –political turbulence of world economic relations in order to navigate the topic when planning promising research areas. The algorithm of a successfully completed study on social domestic food assistance to the population, which has been highly appreciated by the scientific community and internationally recognized, is proposed. The significance of the research lies in the fact that a methodology for analyzing information from scientometric systems has been proposed and demonstrated in the framework of scientific publications to assess the potential of a scientific school and select promising areas of development. |
| Keywords: | scientific potential, scientific school "Problems of infrastructural development of the agro-industrial complex of the Siberian region", answers to the challenges of the time, content analysis, scientometric databases |
| JEL: | C1 C12 C81 O2 R1 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:120843&r= |
| By: | Schreyer, Franziska (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Böhringer, Daniela (Institut Arbeit und Qualifikation (IAQ), Universität Duisburg-Essen); Brussig, Martin (Institut Arbeit und Qualifikation (IAQ), Universität Duisburg-Essen); Hartosch, Katja (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Kellmer, Ariana (Institut Arbeit und Qualifikation (IAQ), Universität Duisburg-Essen); Kupka, Peter (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Osiander, Christopher (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Rauch, Angela (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Schlee, Thorsten (Institut Arbeit und Qualifikation (IAQ), Universität Duisburg-Essen) |
| Abstract: | "Job centres which are responsible for Ukrainian refugees describe this task as challenging but feel they are up to it. Among other strategies, they try to solve problems with communication by translators on site or a professional interpreter hotline. In a mixed-methods study, job centres certify that the majority of Ukrainian refugees has knowledge and skills relevant to the labour market." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Keywords: | IAB-Open-Access-Publikation |
| Date: | 2024–05–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabkbe:202412&r= |
| By: | Rim El Khoury; Nohad Nasrallah (LARGE - Laboratoire de Recherche en Gestion et Economie - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg); Khaled Hussainey; Rima Assaf |
| Abstract: | This study is epicentral to analyze the impact of the Russia–Ukraine war on the financial markets, specifically focusing on the connectedness and spillover dynamics of FinTech, Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG), renewable energy, gold, and Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) indices in developed and emerging countries. Data are collected from Thomson Reuters, ranging from May 8, 2020, to May 11, 2022, and a time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) and the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) t-Copula (DCC-GARCH t-Copula) are used to analyze the data. The results show that FinTech, ESG, and MSCI are net transmitters in developed countries, whereas gold and renewable energy are net receivers pre- and during war periods. ESG and MSCI are net transmitters in emerging countries, while FinTech, renewable energy, and gold become net receivers in both periods. The hedging ratio sheds light on the costs and weights of efficient pair investments that might change in the context of each region and under the combined scenario. The study has important implications for merchant bankers, policymakers, investors, hedgers, and risk managers. |
| Date: | 2023–05–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04564870&r= |
| By: | Warner, James; Benimana, Gilberthe; Mugabo, Serge; Ingabire, Chantal |
| Abstract: | As Rwanda emerges from the effects of COVID-19 and global price shocks caused by the Russia/Ukrainian conflict, there is an opportunity to focus on agricultural fundamentals to drive its economic transformation. One aspect of the transformation is how farm households are engaging in crop commercialization. This policy note outlines basic findings and suggested recommendations derived from a 2022 Rwandan commercialization household survey. Our basic unit of analysis is total crop sold divided by total value produced, averaged at either the household or individual crop level. Key findings include: ï µ Approximately 20% of our sampled smallholder households do not sell any crops. However, contrary to a subsistence/commercial farm dichotomy, most households sell on a broad continuum ranging from 1 – 100% with an average of 33% of their total crop production marketed. ï µ Crop value per hectare increases with greater marketed sales, indicating that farmers switch from lower value food crops (e.g. beans, cassava, maize) to cash crops such as fruits and vegetables where they market higher percentages. ï µ Crop value per hectare is not correlated with land size, revealing that crop choices drive value and not increasing land-related economies of scale. This finding underscores the pivotal role of crop selection in determining agricultural productivity and economic returns, rather than mere expansion of land holdings. ï µ Irrigation, land size, hiring labor and input purchases increase market participation as well as percentage of sales. Conversely, a larger family size has a negative effect on both. |
| Keywords: | agriculture; commercialization; food crops; markets; cash crops; food security; income; surpluses; Africa; Eastern Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Rwanda |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:rssppn:11&r= |