|
on Confederation of Independent States |
|
Issue of 2024‒05‒27
eleven papers chosen by |
| By: | Beloborodova, Anna |
| Abstract: | How polarized is Russian society regarding the war in Ukraine? Political views affect various behaviors, including relationship formation. This study conducts a field experiment on a large Russian dating site and gathers data from over 3, 000 profile evaluations. The findings reveal significant penalties for those who express pro-war or anti-war positions on their dating profiles. Age emerges as the most polarizing factor: younger individuals are less likely to approach pro-war profiles but not anti-war ones, whereas older individuals are less likely to respond positively to profiles indicating anti-war views but not pro-war ones. The results align with survey evidence of a positive relationship between respondents' age and expressed support for the war in Russia, although the experiment indicates a higher degree of polarization. Overall, the experimental findings demonstrate that survey data can reveal trends and relationships between individuals' characteristics and their opinions, but may overstate the levels of support for government agendas in non-democratic states. |
| Keywords: | affective polarization; relationship formation; assortative mating; field experiment; war in Ukraine |
| JEL: | C93 D1 J12 |
| Date: | 2023–10–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:120739&r=cis |
| By: | Ryba, Ren |
| Abstract: | In the context of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and increasing global destabilisation, policy makers within the European Union have expressed the need to reduce the bloc's dependence on imported agricultural products such as livestock feed. One industry that has been promoted as an advantageous source of livestock feed is the insect farming industry. However, the insect industry's growth has not kept pace with optimistic expectations, and high labour and electricity costs in Europe appear to be driving major insect companies to expand production offshore. Solutions may include supporting the automation of insect farming, though automation may have harmful social consequences, or bringing additional land under cultivation to expand domestic production of maize and soy. |
| Date: | 2024–04–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:6wq4f&r=cis |
| By: | Chowdhury, Emon Kalyan |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war on the economy and stock market in Bangladesh. It highlights specific sector impacts, such as tourism, manufacturing, Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), healthcare, and agriculture, due to the COVID-19 pandemic. It also examines the effects of the Russia-Ukraine war on the energy sector, commodity prices, FDI, and the financial sector. Additionally, the paper discusses macroeconomic effects, stock market performance, investor behavior, and provides recommendations for investors, policymakers, and regulators. This paper emphasizes the significant impacts of both crises and the importance of appropriate measures for resilience and stability in the economy and stock market. |
| Keywords: | Covid-19; war; economy; stock market; Bangladesh |
| JEL: | F2 F3 G2 G28 |
| Date: | 2024–04–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:120762&r=cis |
| By: | Inaki Veruete Villegas (Charles University, Institute of Economic Studies at Faculty of Social Sciences & The Environment Center, Czech Republic & BETA, CNRS, University of Strasbourg); Milan Scasny (Charles University, Institute of Economic Studies at Faculty of Social Sciences and The Environment Center, Czech Republic.) |
| Abstract: | The current geopolitical landscape, exemplified by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, has heightened concerns about energy security. This study delves into the nexus of energy security and natural gas utilization in the Czech Republic, offering a thorough analysis amid these turbulent times. Despite the fact that the environment/energy-extended input-output models have been significantly improved, they still fail to fully capture a sector’s role in an economic system characterized as a network of sectors as they primarily analyze sectors as both ends of the supply chain, ignoring a significant role of transmission sectors. We overcome this gap by applying a multidimensional approach to scrutinize the energy supply chain in order to assess the repercussions of heightened natural gas prices post-Russian invasion. Specifically, we combine domestic energy input-output demand and price models to assess the economic impacts under constrained alternative energy scenarios, particularly relevant given the challenges of replacing Russian gas. Additionally, leveraging network analysis techniques —node and edge betweenness centrality—and the hypothetical extraction method are used to identify critically important structural elements within the country’s natural gas consumption chain. While the former pinpoints vital transmission sectors based on gas flow, the latter gauges sectoral significance by simulating complete disconnections, without being influenced by the number of times the sector appears in the supply chain path. Last, we develop a complete map of the embodied energy flows. Structural Path Analysis traces intermediate product flows, enabling the quantification of embodied energy across the supply chain and its representation as a tree-like structure. Our findings reveal significant implications of natural gas price fluctuations on key manufacturing industries, notably those engaged in international trade which are vulnerable to energy supply and price disruptions. We emphasize the critical role of sectors providing essential household goods and services, like energy, food, and transportation. Strategic interventions may be necessary to safeguard domestic demand and the competitive edge of vital sectors like automotive. As energy security remains a dynamic and evolving challenge, our research contributes significantly to the ongoing discourse on energy resilience, particularly for countries dependent on energy imports. Despite the fact our study is applied to the energy field, this framework is useful to analyze the footprint of any inputs, including usage of critical materials, environmental inputs, or emissions, which face similar complexities. |
| Keywords: | Energy-Extended Input-Output Aanalysis; Energy Supply Chain; Natural Gas Footprint; Embodied Energy; Betwenness Centrality; Hypothetical Extraction; Structural Path Analysis; Input-Output Price Model |
| JEL: | C67 Q43 H56 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2024_19&r=cis |
| By: | Kumar, Utkarsh; Ahmad, Wasim; Uddin, Gazi Salah |
| Abstract: | Exchange rate modeling has always fascinated researchers because of its complex macroeconomic dynamics. This study documents the exchange rate dynamics of major emerging economies after accounting for their macroeconomic cycles and explores the Bayesian Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) Markov Regime switching model, which uses time-varying transition probabilities. The main objective is to study the exchange rate dynamics of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS) vis-à-vis the US dollar. The Bayesian setup uses two hierarchal shrinkage priors, the normal-gamma (NG) prior and the Litterman prior, for parameters' estimation. These shrinkage priors allow for a more comprehensive assessment of the regime-specific coefficients. The model performed well in differentiating between the two regimes for all currencies. The Russian ruble was identified to be the most depreciated currency, whereas the African Rand was the most appreciated. The evaluation of model features revealed that many regime-specific coefficients differed significantly from their common mean. A forecasting exercise was then performed for the out-of-sample period to assess the model's performance. A significant improvement was observed over the basic random walk (RW) model and the linear Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) model. |
| Keywords: | time-varying parameters; BRICS; cointegration; exchange rate forecasting; Markov switching |
| JEL: | F3 G3 |
| Date: | 2024–04–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:122816&r=cis |
| By: | Michael Heine; Hansjoerg Herr |
| Abstract: | Der Preisniveauschock ab 2021, der vor allem durch den Krieg in der Ukraine ausgeloest wurde, stellt die Lohnpolitik vor schwierige Herausforderungen. Theoretische und empirische Überlegungen zeigen, dass für alle Arbeitnehmer eine Überwälzung der Wohlfahrtsverluste, die durch die Energiepreiserhöhungen entstanden sind, auf die Kapitalseite nur begrenzt möglich ist. Die Erfahrungen der Inflationswelle und der Ölpreisschocks der 1970er Jahre zeigen, dass eine Lohnpolitik, welche einen vollständigen Ausgleich von Preisschocks durchsetzt, zu hoher Inflation und letztlich zu harter restriktiver Geldpolitik mit Arbeitslosigkeit führt. Aus makroökonomischer Perspektive zu empfehlen ist nach einem Preisniveauschock eine solidarische Lohnpolitik, welche die Nominallöhne moderat anhebt und stärkere Lohnerhöhungen für Arbeitnehmer mit niedrigen Löhnen anstrebt. Notwendig ist eine Unterstützung dieser Strategie durch die Fiskalpolitik, welche die negativen Verteilungseffekte eines Preisniveauschocks abmildert und die realen Nachfrageausfälle, die mit dem Schock verbunden sind, ausgleicht. Die Geldpolitik sollte in einer solchen Konstellation vorsichtig agieren und die Inflationswelle durch die Ökonomie durchlaufen lassen. |
| Keywords: | price shocks, inflation, wages, monetary policy, developments in the1970s |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imk:studie:86-2023&r=cis |
| By: | Benjamin Held; Dorothee Rodenhäuser; Hans Diefenbacher |
| Abstract: | Der Nationale Wohlfahrtsindex (NWI) möchte Einblicke bezüglich der Fragen bieten, wie sich die Wohlfahrt in den letzten Jahrzehnten in Deutschland entwickelt hat und wie nachhaltige Wege zu deren Steigerung aussehen könnten. Der NWI zielt dabei auf einen Perspektivwechsel gegenüber dem Bruttoinlandsprodukt (BIP) ab, indem er den Blick um wohlfahrtsrelevante ökonomische, ökologische und soziale Aspekte erweitert. Der vorliegende Bericht zeigt dabei für das Jahr 2022 eine deutliche Steigerung des NWI um 9, 9 Punkte. Maßgeblich verursacht wurde dies durch nach der Corona-Pandemie ansteigende Konsumausgaben (auch wegen der Entlastungspakete), reduzierte Umweltkosten durch die - teils unfreiwilligen - Energieeinsparungen und im Vergleich zu 2021 geringere Schäden durch Naturkatastrophen. Die im Zuge des Angriffs Russlands auf die Ukraine stark erhöhte Inflation und deutlich gestiegene Flugemissionen dämpften den Anstieg merklich ab. Der Bericht zeigt weiter auf, dass sich die Entwicklungen von NWI und BIP in den letzten 30 Jahren deutlich unterscheiden: Während das BIP um fast 50% relativ kontinuierlich angewachsen ist, hat sich die Wohlfahrt gemäß NWI seit dem Jahr 2000 kaum erhöht. Nachhaltig gesteigert werden könnte die Wohlfahrt zukünftig durch eine Reduktion der Umweltkosten und der Einkommensungleichheit. Im Kontext der Corona-Pandemie werden im Bericht auch Möglichkeiten eruiert, Gesundheitsaspekte und Folgen von Pandemien besser im NWI abzubilden. |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imk:studie:89-2023&r=cis |
| By: | Marandici, Ion |
| Abstract: | This article examines the relationship between nomenklatura membership, wealth accumulation and political ties across the post-Soviet region from the 1990s up to the mid-2010s. It introduces the Post-Soviet Oligarchs (PSO) dataset, containing the sociodemographic characteristics of the super-rich across the former Soviet republics. While the article finds partial support in favour of the nomenklatura capitalism hypothesis, statistical analysis also points to distinct regional patterns of wealth and political inequality. Thus, the most extensive overlap of wealth and power is observed in the authoritarian regimes of Central Asia and the South Caucasus, where ties to the Soviet regime facilitated the exertion of political influence after 1991, enabling in turn wealth accumulation. By contrast, in democratising contexts, the connections between politicians and super-rich point to a mutually dependent relationship between the economic and political realms, with wealth featuring as a major power resource. |
| Keywords: | oligarchs; nomenklatura capitalism; wealthy elites; post-Soviet region; democracy; wealth inequality; authoritarianism; economic transition; billionaires |
| JEL: | N00 O1 P2 P20 P26 P31 P36 P48 P52 Y10 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:120709&r=cis |
| By: | Francesca Guadagno (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Robert Stehrer (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | The energy-renewables ecosystem (ERES) plays a particularly important role in the green transition. This paper analyses its relevance in EU member states and the competitiveness for the EU27 as a whole vis-à-vis other global players and identifies structural dependencies and vulnerabilities. It does so by drawing on the Joint Research Centre’s FIGARO dataset and detailed trade data, and by developing a novel approach that adapts input-output indicators to the analysis of industrial ecosystems. A number of key findings emerge from our analysis. First, the ERES is particularly relevant in new member states, Austria and Germany. At the global level, the EU27 is the second most important exporter after China. Second, in 2020 the EU ecosystem was dependent on imports of coal and lignite from Russia, as well as on a variety of other products from China (including medium- and high-tech electronic products). Third, analysis on the basis of detailed trade data indicates that a few products in the ERES supply chain are delivered by only a handful of countries, which could indicate some vulnerability. Most of the partner countries supply some products that may be characterised as ‘risky’, but China is a main source of such products. |
| Keywords: | green transition; energy-renewables ecosystem; linkages; dependencies; open strategic autonomy |
| JEL: | F10 F14 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:rpaper:rr:473&r=cis |
| By: | Shorin, Sergei |
| Abstract: | Актуальность исследования роли правовой социализации в развитии финансового законодательства обусловлена ростом степени вовлеченности как общества в целом, так и отдельных его представителей в процессы публичного управления. Одновременно на уровне высших руководителей государства углубляется осознание необходимости постоянного поиска и применения новых способов повышения эффективности бюджетных расходов для достижения наиболее полного удовлетворения потребностей населения. В связи с этим важно изучить пути совершенствования финансового законодательства, которые могли бы решить обозначенную задачу. The relevance of the study of the role of legal socialization in the development of financial legislation is due to the growing degree of involvement of both society as a whole and its individual representatives in the processes of public administration. At the same time, at the level of the highest leaders of the state there is a deepening realization of the need to constantly search for and apply new ways to improve the efficiency of budget expenditures to achieve the fullest satisfaction of the needs of the population. In this regard, it is important to study ways to improve the financial legislation, which could solve this task. |
| Keywords: | правовая социализация, интересы общества, эффективность, бюджетные расходы, целеполагание, прозрачность, legal socialization, public interests, efficiency, budget expenditures, target setting, transparency |
| JEL: | E69 H72 K39 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:120749&r=cis |
| By: | Sebastian Dullien (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK)); Silke Tober (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK)) |
| Abstract: | Die Inflationsrate lag im Juli 2023 bei 6, 2 % und damit etwas niedriger als im Juni 2023 (6, 4 %), aber noch leicht höher als im Mai 2023 (6, 1 %). Von Juni bis August 2023 wirken kurzzeitige Basiseffekte als Folge des 9-Euro-Tickets und Tankrabatts in den Monaten Juni, Juli und August 2022, die die Inflation und Kerninflationsrate vorübergehend erhöhen. Entsprechend lag die Inflationsrate Deutschlands erneut über der des Euroraum-Durchschnitts. Haushaltsenergie verteuerte sich im Vergleich zum Vorjahresmonat um 14, 0 % im Juli 2023 und damit ebenso stark wie im Juni 2023, gefolgt von Nahrungsmitteln und alkoholfreien Getränken mit 10, 9 % (Juni 2023: 13, 4 %). Da der Anteil von Nahrungsmitteln und Haushaltsenergie an den Konsumausgaben stark einkommensabhängig ist, bewirkte der schwächere Preisauftrieb bei diesen Gütern des Grundbedarfs eine weitere Verringerung der Spanne der haushaltsspezifischen Teuerungsraten auf nunmehr 1, 0 Prozentpunkte (Juni 2023: 1, 3 Prozentpunkte). Einkommensschwache Alleinlebende hatten weiterhin die höchste Inflationsrate (6, 5 %), einkommensstarke Alleinlebende – wie bereits seit Februar 2022 – die niedrigste (5, 5 %). Erneut etwas geringer ist auch der Unterschied bei der kombinierten Belastung durch die Preise von Nahrungsmitteln und Haushaltsenergie zwischen den Haushalten. Dieser betrug 2, 3 Prozentpunkte, wobei Nahrungsmittel und Haushaltsenergie bei einkommensschwachen Alleinlebenden einen Inflationsbeitrag von 3, 8 Prozentpunkten lieferten, verglichen mit 1, 5 Prozentpunkten im Falle von einkommensstarken Alleinlebenden. Trotz lahmender Wirtschaft hat die EZB die Leitzinsen im Juli abermals erhöht und damit mittlerweile um insgesamt 4, 25 Prozentpunkte. Die weitere Verschärfung des Restriktionsgrades ist riskant, weil Zinserhöhungen erst mit erheblichen Verzögerungen voll durchschlagen und die Wirtschaft noch unter dem Eindruck der Folgen der Pandemie und des Ukrainekriegs stehen. Die Kernrate geht zwar bisher nur langsam zurück. Sie wird aber absehbar durch die geringeren Energiepreise gedämpft und auch durch die Auflösung noch vorhandener Lieferengpässe. |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imk:pbrief:156-2023&r=cis |