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on Confederation of Independent States |
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Issue of 2024‒05‒13
seven papers chosen by |
| By: | Ms. Gita Gopinath; Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas; Mr. Andrea F Presbitero; Petia Topalova |
| Abstract: | Global linkages are changing amidst elevated geopolitical tensions and a surge in policies directed at increasing supply chain resilience and national security. Using granular bilateral data, this paper provides new evidence of trade and investment fragmentation along geopolitical lines since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and compares it to the historical experience of the early years of the Cold War. Gravity model estimates point to significant declines in trade and FDI flows between countries in geopolitically distant blocs since the onset of the war in Ukraine, relative to flows between countries in the same bloc (roughly 12% and 20%, respectively). While the extent of fragmentation is still relatively small and we do not know how longlasting it will be, the decoupling between the rival geopolitical blocs during the Cold War suggests it could worsen considerably should geopolitical tensions persist and trade restrictive policies intensify. Different from the early years of the Cold War, a set of nonaligned ‘connector’ countries are rapidly gaining importance and serving as a bridge between blocs. The emergence of connectors has likely brought resilience to global trade and activity, but does not necessarily increase diversification, strengthen supply chains, or lessen strategic dependence. |
| Keywords: | Trade; Foreign direct investment; Geoeconomics; Fragmentation |
| Date: | 2024–04–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/076&r=cis |
| By: | Rudloff, Bettina; Mensah, Kristina; Wieck, Christine |
| Abstract: | This study contributes to the recent literature on geostrategic aspects of economic policy and the objective of economic security by addressing food security as a subcategory within economic security. Against the backdrop of the COVID-19 crisis and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, this study analyses whether and how the relevance of food security as a national policy goal has changed. It focuses on the questions of whether countries’ policy choices towards this objective have initiated longer-term strategic shifts, rather than just acute reactions, and analyses the extent to which these adjustments are influenced by underlying geopolitical considerations. To answer these questions, developments in food security policies are identified, focusing primarily on the perspective of security of supply. This perspective fits with the recent political focus and current initiatives by many countries aiming at national economic and supply security in general. |
| Keywords: | Food Security and Poverty |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iatrcp:341933&r=cis |
| By: | Mishra , Ashok (Arizona State University); Valera , Harold Glenn (International Rice Research Institute); Yamano, Takashi (Asian Development Bank); Pede, Valerien (International Rice Research Institute) |
| Abstract: | This study assesses the impact of increased fertilizer prices under different scenarios on rice production, consumption, trade and prices. Using a global rice model based on a partial equilibrium framework, the simulation results show that a 30% to 100% increase in fertilizer prices would reduce rice yields by 0.45% to 1.33%, but increase world rice prices by 7% to 23% between 2022 and 2025. As the world market price for rice increases significantly, rice trade and rice consumption will decrease accordingly, estimated at 1.7% to 7.0% and 0.27% to 0.78%, respectively. The simulation results also show that retail prices for rice would increase significantly in all rice-consuming countries. The impact of higher fertilizer prices would vary widely in the major rice-producing countries. |
| Keywords: | rice; world prices; Asia; rice trade; food security; partial equilibrium model |
| JEL: | F51 Q17 Q18 |
| Date: | 2024–04–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:0724&r=cis |
| By: | Mahdi Ghodsi (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Francesca Guadagno (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Zahra Mousavi; Leon Podkaminer (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Bernd Christoph Ströhm (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | Chart of the Month Moving up the ladder of ‘complexity’ via structural transformation by Francesca Guadagno Opinion Corner The European Central Bank’s bemusing ‘strategy’ by Leon Podkaminer After a protracted period of inaction, in November 2022 the ECB finally embarked on policy tightening – even though inflation in the euro area had by that time already started to decline. One possible explanation for this paradox may have been the ECB’s motivation to ‘save face’ in a situation where inflation could hardly be contained by conventional monetary policy tools. Patents as green technology barometers Trends and disparities by Mahdi Ghodsi and Zahra Mousavi As the urgency of the climate crisis grows, this study offers a unique perspective on eco-innovation, through the analysis of patents granted in green and environmental technologies. The research identifies energy generation and transportation as the leading sectors, with 36% and 34%, respectively, of all green patents granted globally. However, while the advanced economies are at the forefront of green innovation, the developing nations are lagging significantly behind. This inequality not only exacerbates climate vulnerabilities, but also widens the global divide. Investment in natural gas capacities in the Western Balkans by Bernd Christoph Ströhm Russia’s military invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 forced those EU countries that relied on Russian gas to diversify their energy supplies. In the Western Balkans, Croatia in particular is transitioning to become a regional energy powerhouse and power hub, while the governments of Montenegro and Serbia are also investing in the expansion of natural gas capacities. With those investments, LNG could temporarily become the main energy source for Western Balkan countries and could facilitate the phasing-out of coal use in the region by 2050. Monthly and quarterly statistics for Central, East and Southeast Europe |
| Keywords: | economic complexity index, inflation, monetary policy, green technologies, greenhouse gas emissions, patents, LNG, energy mix, natural gas pipelines, energy supply diversification |
| Date: | 2023–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:mpaper:mr:2023-10&r=cis |
| By: | d'Artis Kancs |
| Abstract: | Motivated by the recently experienced systemic shocks (the COVID-19 pandemic and the full-fledged Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine) – that have created new forms of uncertainties to our supplies – this paper explores the supply chain robustness under risk aversion and ambiguity aversion. We aim to understand the potential consequences of deeply uncertain systemic events on the supply chain resilience and how does the information precision affect individual agents’ choices and the chain-level preparedness to aggregate shocks. Augmenting a parsimonious supply chain model with uncertainty, we analyse the relationship between the upstream sourcing decisions and the supply chain survival probability. Both risk-averse and ambiguity-averse individually-optimising agents’ upstream sourcing paths are efficient but can become vulnerable to aggregate shocks. In contrast, a chain-level coordination of downstream firm sourcing decisions can qualitatively improve the robustness of the entire supply chain compared to the individual decision-making baseline. Such a robust decision making ensures that in the presence of an aggregate shock – independently of its realisation – part of upstream suppliers will survive and the final goods’ supply will be ensured even under the most demanding circumstances. Our results also indicate that an input source diversification extracts a cost in foregone efficiency. |
| Keywords: | Resilience, Robustness, Global Supply Chain, uncertainty, risk, ambiguity. |
| JEL: | E7 F02 F12 F13 L15 |
| Date: | 2024–04–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eei:rpaper:eeri_rp_2024_03&r=cis |
| By: | Artem Kraevskiy; Artem Prokhorov; Evgeniy Sokolovskiy |
| Abstract: | We develop and apply a new online early warning system (EWS) for what is known in machine learning as concept drift, in economics as a regime shift and in statistics as a change point. The system goes beyond linearity assumed in many conventional methods, and is robust to heavy tails and tail-dependence in the data, making it particularly suitable for emerging markets. The key component is an effective change-point detection mechanism for conditional entropy of the data, rather than for a particular indicator of interest. Combined with recent advances in machine learning methods for high-dimensional random forests, the mechanism is capable of finding significant shifts in information transfer between interdependent time series when traditional methods fail. We explore when this happens using simulations and we provide illustrations by applying the method to Uzbekistan's commodity and equity markets as well as to Russia's equity market in 2021-2023. |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2404.03319&r=cis |
| By: | Emmanuel Pinto Moreira |
| Abstract: | African countries were severely hit by the COVID-19 pandemic, which quickly drove the continent into its worst recession in fifty years. According to the 2022 African Development Bank African Economic Outlook (AEO), real GDP declined by -1.5% in 2020 compared to growth of 3.3% in 2019. Africa has recovered quickly from the recession, but this has not translated into favorable debt prospects for many countries. To make a challenging situation even worse, the Russia/Ukraine crisis has cast further doubt on prospects for debt sustainability in Africa. The international community has reacted to these events by putting in place a Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI). To address debt needs further, the G20 has introduced a Common Framework to facilitate debt relief, including from the private sector. These two initiatives have not proven sufficient to meet Africa’s debt challenge. |
| Date: | 2023–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:ppaper:pb25-23&r=cis |