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on Confederation of Independent States |
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Issue of 2024‒05‒06
nine papers chosen by |
| By: | Morgane Salomé |
| Abstract: | A small Western Asian country, Georgia has an outward-looking economic model, mainly based on services such as trade and tourism. The Georgian economy is thus highly vulnerable to external shocks and was hard hit by the Covid-19 crisis, with a recession of 6.8% in 2020, the worst since 1994. In light of these characteristics and the country’s economic ties with Russia and Ukraine, most observers expected the Georgian economy to be adversely affected by the conflict between these two countries.However, these anticipated negative effects have not materialized and economic growth remained buoyant in 2022 (+10.1%, after the rebound of +10.5% in 2021). This was in particular due to a recovery in tourism and an explosion in migratory and financial flows from Russia. These factors have also contributed to a reduction in the fiscal and current account deficits (-2.6% of GDP and -4.0% of GDP, respectively) and an appreciation of the lari. In 2023, growth is expected to have remained above its potential (6.2% according to the International Monetary Fund – IMF) and the fiscal and current account deficits would appear to have been contained. |
| Keywords: | Géorgie |
| JEL: | E |
| Date: | 2024–04–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:avg:wpaper:en16665&r=cis |
| By: | Robert Gold; Julian Hinz; Michele Valsecchi |
| Abstract: | Do economic sanctions affect internal support of sanctioned countries’ governments? To answer this question, we focus on the sanctions imposed on Russia in 2014 and identify their effect on voting behavior in both presidential and parliamentary elections. On the economic side, the sanctions significantly hurt Russia’s foreign trade — with regional variance. We use trade losses caused by the sanctions as measure for regional sanctions exposure. For identification, we rely on a structural gravity model that allows us to compare observed trade flows to counterfactual flows in the absence of sanctions. Difference-in-differences estimations reveal that regime support significantly increases in response to the sanctions, at the expense of voting support of Communist parties. For the average Russian district, sanctions exposure increases the vote share gained by President Putin and his party by 13 percent. Event studies and placebo estimations confirm the validity of our results. |
| Keywords: | economic sanctions, voting behaviour, gravity estimation, rally-around-the-flag |
| JEL: | F12 F14 F15 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11033&r=cis |
| By: | Dang, Hai-Anh H.; Abanokova, Kseniya Abanokova; Lokshin, Michael M. |
| Abstract: | We offer the first study on vulnerability adaptation to subjective well-being, using rich panel data over the past two decades for Russia. We found no adaption to vulnerability for life satisfaction and subjective wealth, with longer vulnerability spells associated with more negative subjective welfare. Some evidence indicates that despite little differences between urban and rural areas in life satisfaction, rural areas exhibit a more robust lack of adaptation for subjective wealth, particularly for longer durations of vulnerability. More education generally indicates a stronger lack of adaptation for life satisfaction, but similar levels of adaptation for subjective wealth. |
| Keywords: | Russia; vulnerability; adaptation; satisfaction; subjective wealth; gender; panel data |
| JEL: | D60 I30 O10 |
| Date: | 2023–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:122578&r=cis |
| By: | Hung Tran |
| Abstract: | Heightened geopolitical rivalry has greatly complicated the challenges facing the Global South. Countries identifying with the Global South now have to deal with the long-standing problem of promoting changes in the current international political and economic system to better serve their development needs, while navigating the geopolitically driven fragmentation of trade and investment flows. Moreover, the strategic approaches that could be adopted to deal with those challenges are influenced by the vague definition of the ‘Global South’ itself. Further complicating the picture is the fact that China and Russia have played very ambiguous roles—siding with developing countries in the desire for change, but representing one side of the geopolitical competition for global influence. |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:ppaper:pb07-24&r=cis |
| By: | Morgane Salomé |
| Abstract: | Petit pays d’Asie occidentale, la Géorgie affiche un modèle économique extraverti, reposant essentiellement sur les services tels que le commerce ou le tourisme. L’économie géorgienne est donc très vulnérable aux chocs externes et a subi de plein fouet la crise du Covid-19, avec une recession de 6, 8 % en 2020, la plus forte depuis 1994. Compte tenu de ces caractéristiques et des liens économiques du pays avec la Russie et l’Ukraine, la plupart des observateurs anticipaient que l’économie géorgienne serait négativement affectée par le conflit entre ces deux États.Ces effets négatifs anticipés ne se sont cependant pas matérialisés et la croissance économique est restée très dynamique en 2022 (+10, 1 %, après le rebond de 2021 à +10, 5 %), grâce, notamment, à une reprise du tourisme et une explosion des flux migratoires et financiers en provenance de Russie. Ces derniers facteurs ont également permis une résorption des déficits budgétaire et courant (-2, 6 % du PIB et -4, 0 % du PIB respectivement) et une appréciation du lari. En 2023, la croissance serait restée supérieure à son potentiel (6, 2 % selon le Fonds monétaire international – FMI) et les déficits budgétaire et courant semblent avoir été contenus. |
| Keywords: | Géorgie |
| JEL: | E |
| Date: | 2024–04–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:avg:wpaper:fr16665&r=cis |
| By: | Arkadiusz Lipiecki; Bartosz Uniejewski; Rafa{\l} Weron |
| Abstract: | Operational decisions relying on predictive distributions of electricity prices can result in significantly higher profits compared to those based solely on point forecasts. However, the majority of models developed in both academic and industrial settings provide only point predictions. To address this, we examine three postprocessing methods for converting point forecasts into probabilistic ones: Quantile Regression Averaging, Conformal Prediction, and the recently introduced Isotonic Distributional Regression. We find that while IDR demonstrates the most varied performance, combining its predictive distributions with those of the other two methods results in an improvement of ca. 7.5% compared to a benchmark model with normally distributed errors, over a 4.5-year test period in the German power market spanning the COVID pandemic and the war in Ukraine. Remarkably, the performance of this combination is at par with state-of-the-art Distributional Deep Neural Networks. |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2404.02270&r=cis |
| By: | TORREJON PEREZ Sergio (European Commission - JRC); FERNANDEZ MACIAS Enrique (European Commission - JRC); HURLEY John |
| Abstract: | We investigate shifts in employment structures during the first decades of the twenty-first century at a global scale, focusing on a diverse set of countries, including nine EU countries, Canada, the U.S., Mexico, Brazil, Chile, Argentina, Russia, India, and S.Korea. Using the jobs-based approach as the common underlying methodology enhances the comparability of results. The findings highlight a lack of a singular prevailing pattern in employment changes, revealing a variety of shift patterns across countries and time periods. Nonetheless, occupational upgrading emerges as the most frequently observed pattern. A sectoral analysis underscores the pivotal role of private services as the primary driver of employment growth across most countries. A distinct contrast is evident between the dynamics of private and public services. Private services tend to foster job polarization, while public services lean towards job upgrading, with some notable exceptions. Examining the gender dimension over the past two and a half decades reveals a marked improvement in the status of female workers. In many instances, there has been a feminization of employment, and women have experienced more occupational upgrading than their male counterparts. While this represents a general trend, significant exceptions exist. |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc136358&r=cis |
| By: | MASSINI Silvia; PISCITELLO Lucia; SHEVTSOVA Yevgeniya (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | Recent empirical studies show that firms that simultaneously engage in export/import and internal R&D activities experience stronger productivity benefits with respect to their domestically oriented counterparts. This analysis extends the scope of these studies to explore complementary effects on productivity of engaging in all three activities (i.e. import, export and internal R&D) simultaneously in the context of emerging market firms. The results indicate that emerging markets firms benefit from complementarities stemming from the assimilation and integration of knowledge from external sources (import and export) with internal knowledge (own R&D investment). The effect is more pronounced for private enterprises, especially when they trade with partners from advanced markets. |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc136621&r=cis |
| By: | Reinhold Heinlein; Gabriella D. Legrenzi; Scott M. R. Mahadeo; Gabriella Deborah Legrenzi |
| Abstract: | We empirically assess the interlinkages between sovereign risk, measured in terms of CDS spreads, and exchange rates for a sample of emerging markets. Our period of analysis includes periods of severe stress, such as the Global Financial Crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukrainian War. Using the most recent developments in local Gaussian partial correlation analysis and the associated nonlinear Granger causality tests, we are able to uncover linkages between assets across different segments of their joint distributions. Disentangling the effect of global factors, we show that the information on sovereign risk of other emerging economies is more relevant for the sovereign risk-exchange rate relationship than the state of developed markets risk for all countries in our sample and for all segments of the assets distribution. The same considerations apply for the movements of the US dollar relative to other currencies, where knowledge on movements of emerging currencies is of particular interest. Nonlinear Granger causality tests show bi-directional causality for most countries, confirming the importance of multiple transmission channels. Taken together, our results are of interest for international investors and policymakers, showing all interlinkages between sovereign risk and exchange rates across their entire distribution. |
| Keywords: | CDS, correlation, emerging markets, exchange rate, nonlinear causality, sovereign risk |
| JEL: | F31 G15 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11019&r=cis |