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on Confederation of Independent States |
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Issue of 2024‒04‒29
thirteen papers chosen by |
| By: | Fischer, Sabine |
| Abstract: | No Russian election since Soviet times has been manipulated to the extent we are seeing in the 2024 'presidential election'. The political context is dictatorial, the regime's power grab comprehensive. The media are subject to wartime censorship, and there is not even a pretence of political competition. The death of Alexei Navalny has only heightened the atmosphere of fear. Yet although the vote is an authoritarian plebiscite, a rubber stamp, signs of popular criticism of the regime and the war should not be overlooked. Germany and Europe should unequivocally state that this election is undemocratic and illegitimate. But even more importantly, contacts with critics of the war inside Russia must be maintained. |
| Keywords: | Russian election, democratic opposition, Vladimir Putin, Alexei Navalny, Margarita Simonyan, United Russia, war in Ukraine |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:289467&r=cis |
| By: | Andrea Gazzani (Bank of Italy); Fabrizio Venditti (Bank of Italy); Giovanni Veronese (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | Oil prices contain information on global shocks of key relevance for monetary policy decisions. We propose a novel approach to identify these shocks at the daily frequency in a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR). Our method is devised to be used in real time to interpret developments in the oil market and their implications for the macroeconomy, circumventing the problem of publication lags that plagues monthly data used in workhorse SVAR models. This method proves particularly valuable for monetary policymakers at times when macroeconomic conditions evolve rapidly, like during the COVID-19 pandemic or the invasion of Ukraine by Russia. |
| Keywords: | oil prices, VAR, real time, monetary policy |
| JEL: | Q43 C32 E32 C53 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_1448_24&r=cis |
| By: | Gilles Paché (CERGAM - Centre d'Études et de Recherche en Gestion d'Aix-Marseille - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - UTLN - Université de Toulon) |
| Abstract: | Since February 2022, two major geopolitical crises have shaken the world. First, Russia attacked Ukrainian territory as part of a "special military operation" to demilitarize it and defend Russian-speaking regions. In turn, in October 2023, the Middle East has experienced a new dramatic episode in its history, with an Israeli-Palestinian war in the Gaza Strip. In both cases, the violent fighting is causing humanitarian crises. While this is an essential issue, it should not conceal the reality of major ecological disasters. This article points out that war-related environmental crises have been a known reality since the 1960s and should lead to the definitive recognition of war ecocides. |
| Keywords: | Crises, Ecology, War ecocides |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04510513&r=cis |
| By: | Dorosh, Paul A.; Diao, Xinshen; Thurlow, James; Koirala, Pankaj; Timsina, Krishna; Krupnik, Timothy J. |
| Abstract: | Over the past decades, climate change has brought about numerous detrimental consequences for agricultural production in many countries, posing a substantial challenge to the economic well being of farmers while affecting national and international economies. Meteorological data specifically indicates that extreme weather events are occurring with unprecedented frequencies, intensities, and durations. This includes events associated with variations in the El Niño – Southern Oscillation of ocean currents, such as unusually dry weather in June through August in Nepal and other parts of South Asia. For example, during the El Niño year of 1992, a particularly severe drought occurred in Nepal, contributing in part to a 17.7 percent fall in rice production relative to the prior trend. Current indications are that another El Niño – related drought may already be underway in 2023 and into 2024. With the extreme weather events, global economies have experienced a number of recent shocks – for example those associated with the COVID-19 pandemic and conflicts in countries such as the Ukraine and Russia that are important exporters of agricultural inputs and goods. As such, this research note explores the implications of a range of agricultural productivity shocks including but not limited to those resulting from a possible El Niño-related drought in 2023 and extending into early 2024 (coinciding with the monsoon and post-monsoon seasons). |
| Keywords: | climate change; agricultural production; economic aspects; extreme weather events; el niño; shock; drought; Nepal; Asia |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:cgiarp:136173&r=cis |
| By: | Tetiana Yukhymenko (National Bank of Ukraine); Oleh Sorochan (National Bank of Ukraine) |
| Abstract: | This study explores the impact of central bank communications on a range of macrofinancial indicators. Specifically, we examine whether information posted on the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) website influences foreign exchange (FX) markets and the inflation expectations of experts. Our main results suggest that the NBU's statements and press releases on monetary policy issues do indeed matter. For instance, we find that exchange rate movements and volatility are negatively correlated with the volumes of publications of the NBU on its official website. However, this effect is noticeably larger for volatility than for exchange rate changes. The impact of communication on FX developments is strongest a week after a news release, and it persists further. Furthermore, the inflation expectations of financial experts, though indifferent to NBU updates overall, turn out to be sensitive to monetary policy announcements. The latter reduces the level of expectations and interest rate movement. |
| Keywords: | central bank communications, monetary policy, FX market, text analysis |
| JEL: | E58 E71 C55 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ukb:wpaper:01/2024&r=cis |
| By: | David K. Levine; Lee E. Ohanian |
| Abstract: | Much has been written about deterrence, the process of committing to punish an adversary to prevent an attack. But in sufficiently rich environments where attacks evolve over time, formulating a strategy involves not only deterrence but also appeasement, the less costly process of not responding to an attack. This paper develops a model that integrates these two processes to analyze the equilibrium time paths of attacks, punishment, and appeasement. We study an environment in which a small attack is launched and can be followed by a larger attack. There are pooling and separating equilibria. The pooling equilibrium turns the common intuition that appeasement is a sign of weakness, inviting subsequent attacks, on its head, because appeasement is a sign of strength in the pooling case. In contrast, the separating equilibrium captures the common intuition that appeasement is a sign of weakness, but only because deterrence in this equilibrium fails. We interpret several episodes of aggression, appeasement, and deterrence: Neville Chamberlain's responses to Hitler, Putin's invasion of Ukraine, Israel's response to Hamas, Turkey's invasion of Cyprus, and Serbia's attacks in Kosovo. |
| JEL: | D0 D82 F0 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32280&r=cis |
| By: | Hinterlang, Natascha; Jäger, Marius; Stähler, Nikolai; Strobel, Johannes |
| Abstract: | The dependency on imported essential production inputs poses a threat of abrupt price hikes and shortages, potentially triggered by political events. The energy crisis resulting from the Russian war of aggression is an example. This paper investigates whether governments should bolster production via transfers or cost subsidies in the event of a crisis, utilizing a dynamic multi-sector economic model that is calibrated to Germany and incorporates endogenous firm entry and exit. Our findings suggest that subsidizing production costs is more beneficial for economic activity and welfare, provided the energy demand due to the subsidy does not significantly influence the price of the essential production input. If it does, this approach could become exceedingly expensive. In such scenarios, it is economically more efficient to provide lump-sum transfers to firms. The effectiveness of these policies ultimately hinges on their impact on the price of the imported input. |
| Keywords: | Dynamic General Equilibrium Model, Input-Output Matrix, Energy crisis, Gas Price Brake |
| JEL: | E32 E50 E62 H32 Q58 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubdps:287760&r=cis |
| By: | Andriy Tsapin (National Bank of Ukraine; National University of Ostroh Academy); Oleksandr Faryna (National Bank of Ukraine; National University of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy) |
| Abstract: | Using survey data from the USAID Financial Sector Transformation Project, this paper examines whether or not financial literacy influences households' expectations about future prices and whether or not it anchors inflation expectations to the central bank's target. We find that higher financial literacy lowers average uncertainty about one-year inflation, but increases three-year inflation expectations. The results from quantile regressions confirm the asymmetric effects of financial literacy and its components on inflation. Inverse effects of financial literacy on expected inflation are at work for the upper end of the distribution (unanchored expectations), while positive effects are seen in the lower end of the distribution (anchored expectations). Our findings also suggest that financial literacy significantly improves inflation perceptions and the accuracy of individuals' predictions about inflation. The conclusions from this research are beneficial and have strong policy implications for the central bank's monetary policy. |
| Keywords: | c inflation expectations, inflation perceptions, financial literacy, monetary policy |
| JEL: | C81 D80 D82 E31 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ukb:wpaper:02/2024&r=cis |
| By: | Grütjen, Klaus |
| Abstract: | On 16 September 2023, Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger - all three states led by military regimes - decided to establish a new regional organisation, the Alliance of Sahel States (Alliance des Etats du Sahel - AES). This move was prompted by the worsening of the crisis within the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) in 2023, a crisis that reached its peak to date with the announcement by the three AES members on 28 January 2024 of their withdrawal from ECOWAS, a regional organisation set up back in 1975. In a socio-political context in which the role and functions of the state, the extent of state powers and the way in which they are exercised are increasingly being called into question, new forms of political and social organisation are developing. These are also influenced by the current geopolitical developments in the changing world order. At the same time, states and societies and the ongoing regional integration processes are facing major new challenges. Within ECOWAS, conventional ideas of state and society, values and structures are coming up against growing tendencies towards a new understanding of statehood and sovereignty. In the West Africa/Sahel region, new processes of nation-building and state-building are under way, underpinned by efforts to renew social cohesion and to integrate the 'vital forces of the nation' - a concept cited increasingly frequently in these countries - as comprehensively as possible. These developments call for a realignment of German and European foreign and development policy. The political and social conditions and expectations of the partners in the West Africa/Sahel region are currently undergoing profound transformation. They need to be aligned with the content and interests of the value-based foreign policy advocated by Germany - in line with the principle of a 'partnership between equals'. Any appraisal of the future developments and integration of the dynamics that determine them must take account of the various integration processes, which are particularly diversified and run in parallel in this region. Adopting a comparative perspective, this paper provides an overview of the various regional organisations in the West Africa/Sahel region. It analyses the potential of each of them in terms of their development prospects and sustainability. In addition to the critical relationship between ECOWAS and the AES, it also examines the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU), the Integrated Develop-ment Authority of the Liptako-Gourma Region (Autorité de Liptako-Gourma - ALG) and the G5 Sahel, which is currently being dissolved. If the partnership between Germany and Europe on the one hand and the West African and Sahel states on the other is to be continued, it will be vital to adopt a pragmatic approach and maintain a political dialogue with all the partners. The states in this region are extremely important to Europe's future development. Moreover, it is only through communication based on mutual respect underpinning cooperation in the economic and development sectors that the growing influence of political powers such as Russia and Iran - whose ideas, interests and values are not in line with the Western Atlantic model of democracy governed by the rule of law - can be curbed effectively. |
| Keywords: | Sahel, ECOWAS, regional integration, autocracy, peace and security, Western Africa |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:idospb:289485&r=cis |
| By: | Marc Raffinot (Université Paris Dauphine, LEDa DIAL, PSL); Babacar Sene (Université Cheikh Anta Diop de Dakar, LAFIDEV); Marin Ferry (Université Gustave Eiffel, UGE) |
| Abstract: | Since 1960, and up to the early 2000s, the financing of poor countries has been mostly based on grants, concessional loans (with conditions that are softer than the market), financing close to market finance but rationed and subject to conditions. Since 2007, a number of low-income and lower-middle-income African countries have sought to break out of this paradigm by borrowing on the international financial markets, notably in the form of Eurobonds. These countries are referred to as "frontier countries" because their access to the market is not well established yet. Such borrowing increases the risks, particularly in terms of refinancing, but * 1 Université Paris Dauphine, LEDA DIAL. 2 Université Cheikh Anta Diop de Dakar, LAFIDEV. 3Université Gustave Eiffel, UGE 1 can also tighten up budgetary discipline by imposing stronger constraints. From 2007 up to the mid-2010s, the economic climate was fairly favourable, before it turned around from 2019 onwards with the Covid pandemic, the tightening of monetary policy in the United States and then in Europe, and the invasion of Ukraine. Zambia and Ghana in particular have defaulted, and the restructuring of their debt keep posing a problem given the multiplicity of creditors, which renders the old practice centred on the Paris Club ineffective. The restructuring of Zambia's debt is the first test of the G20's new Common Framework, which has yet to demonstrate its ability to resolve debt problems to the satisfaction of all stakeholders. |
| Keywords: | Dette publique, dette extérieure, pays frontière, prêts concessionnel, eurobonds, Club de Paris, Common Framework |
| JEL: | F34 F55 F53 G15 H63 H81 O19 O23 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dia:wpaper:dt202403&r=cis |
| By: | Tull, Denis |
| Abstract: | Die durch Putsche etablierten Militärregime in Mali (2020), Burkina Faso (2022) und Niger (2023) stellen Deutschland und seine europäischen Partner vor Zielkonflikte und Dilemmata. Entsprechend viel Zeit benötigen die Europäer, einen angemessenen Kurs gegenüber den Militärregimen abzustecken. Dabei geht es letztlich um die Frage, ob und welche Kooperationsangebote politisch vertretbar und in ihrer Wirkung aussichtsreich sind oder ob eher eine Politik der Isolierung und Konfrontation angezeigt wäre. Der eigentliche Klärungsbedarf besteht aber vor allem bei der Frage, welche Probleme und Ziele vorrangig sein sollen. Geht es darum, Putsch-Regime zurückzudrängen, den wachsenden russischen Einfluss einzudämmen, oder stehen die sicherheitspolitischen Probleme der Region selbst im Vordergrund (illegale Migration, Terrorismus, Instabilität)? Die deutschen und europäischen Handlungsoptionen sind ohnehin schon begrenzt. Umso wichtiger sind transparente Grundannahmen und klare Zielsetzungen. |
| Keywords: | Sahel, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Putsche, Militärregierungen, Militärregime, ECOWAS, Einfluss Russlands, Migration, Terrorismus, Instabilität, deutsche Sahelpolitik, europäische Sahelpolitik, Transition |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpakt:289482&r=cis |
| By: | Grütjen, Klaus |
| Abstract: | Le 16 septembre 2023, le Burkina Faso, le Mali et le Niger, trois États dirigés par des régimes militaires issus de coups d'État, ont décidé de former l'Alliance des États du Sahel (AES). Cette nouvelle organisation régionale a vu le jour dans le sillage de l'intensification de la crise interne au sein de la Communauté économique des États de l'Afrique de l'Ouest (CEDEAO) en 2023, dont le point culminant a été atteint le 28 janvier 2024 avec l'annonce, par les trois États membres de l'AES, de leur retrait de cette organisation régionale fondée en 1975. Dans un contexte sociopolitique où le rôle et les fonctions de l'État ainsi que la portée et les modalités d'exercice des pouvoirs publics se trouvent de plus en plus contestés, de nouvelles formes d'organisation politique et sociale se développent, également sous l'influence de l'évolution actuelle de la situation géopolitique dans un ordre mondial en mutation. Dans le même temps, les États et les sociétés, mais aussi les processus d'intégration régionale en cours, font face à de nouveaux enjeux majeurs. Au sein de la communauté des États de la CEDEAO, les notions traditionnelles d'État et de société, les valeurs et les structures se heurtent aux tendances croissantes en faveur d'une nouvelle conception de l'État et de la souveraineté. La région Afrique de l'Ouest/Sahel voit émerger de nouveaux processus d'édification de la nation et de l'État (Nation Building et State Building), portés par des efforts visant à renouveler la cohésion sociale et à intégrer le plus pleinement possible les « Forces Vives de la Nation » auxquelles les dirigeants de ces États se réfèrent de plus en plus. Ces évolutions nécessitent un ajustement de la politique étrangère et de développement allemande et européenne. À l'heure actuelle, les conditions politiques et sociales et les attentes des partenaires de l'espace Afrique de l'Ouest/Sahel connaissent de profonds bouleversements qu'il convient de concilier avec le contenu et les intérêts de la politique étrangère de l'Allemagne, fondée sur des valeurs, et dans le droit fil du principe d'un partenariat « d'égal à égal ». L'appréciation des développements à venir et l'intégration des dynamiques qui les sous-tendent nécessitent de tenir compte des différents processus d'intégration qui se déploient de façon parallèle dans cette région et s'avèrent particulièrement diversifiés. Dans une perspective comparative, le présent article propose un aperçu des différentes organisations régionales de l'espace Afrique de l'Ouest/Sahel. Leur potentiel respectif est analysé en termes de perspectives de développement et de durabilité. Outre la relation critique entre la CEDEAO et l'AES, l'Union économique et monétaire ouest-africaine (UEMOA), l'Autorité de Développement Intégré des États du Liptako-Gourma (ALG) et le groupe des États du G5 Sahel en cours de dissolution sont considérés. Pour poursuivre le partenariat entre l'Allemagne - et l'Europe - et les États d'Afrique de l'Ouest et du Sahel -, il est impératif de maintenir le dialogue politique avec l'ensemble des partenaires selon une approche pragmatique. Les pays de cette région sont très importants pour le développement futur de l'Europe. Et seule une coopération dans les domaines de l'économie et du développement, fondée sur une communication empreinte de respect mutuel, peut permettre de contenir l'influence croissante de puissances politiques telles que la Russie et l'Iran. Des puissances dont les idées, les intérêts et les valeurs s'écartent du modèle fondé sur la démocratie et sur l'État de droit d'inspiration occidentale-atlantique. |
| Keywords: | Sahel, CEDEAO, intégration régionale, autocratie, paix et sécurité, Afrique de l'Ouest |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:idospb:289486&r=cis |
| By: | Mikhail Andreyev (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation); Alyona Nelyubina (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation) |
| Abstract: | We use a DSGE model for a hydrocarbon-rich country to examine the macroeconomic implications of scenarios that lead to an energy transition. Our findings show that the scenario of the fall in export revenues from brown energy sales is the least preferred for energy transition in terms of welfare loss, while the scenario of imposing higher taxes is more acceptable. The most favourable scenario leading to the smallest drop in public wealth and long-term growth in output and consumption involves the productivity incentives in the green energy sector. We also analyse the impact of mechanisms such as monetary policy inertia, the level of openness of the financial account, technological substitutability between brown and green energy. We found that news about the future implementation of green policies alone cannot trigger the energy transition. Investments become cleaner after the news announcement, but this barely increases green energy production. |
| Keywords: | : dynamic models, general equilibrium, rational expectations, green energy, energy transition, climate policy, cross-border tax, monetary policy. |
| JEL: | D58 E47 E62 E63 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bkr:wpaper:wps122&r=cis |