nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2024‒04‒22
five papers chosen by

  1. The Impact of the 2022 Oil Embargo and Price Cap on Russian Oil Prices By Lutz Kilian; David Rapson; Burkhard Schipper
  2. EU's “Open Strategic Autonomy” and its Implications for Korea By Jang, Youngook
  3. Consumer participation in the credit market during the COVID-19 pandemic and beyond By Charalambakis, Evangelos; Teppa, Federica; Tsiortas, Athanasios
  4. The Entry of BRICS Currency and Exit of Dollar: Evidence from International Trade Theories and Policy Implications By R, Pazhanisamy
  5. Assessing regional inequalities in Kazakhstan through well-being By Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés; Bartalucci, Federico; Kurmanov, Bakhytzhan; Rau, Genadiy; Nigmetov, Kaisar

  1. By: Lutz Kilian; David Rapson; Burkhard Schipper
    Abstract: This paper documents the effect of the oil embargo and price cap on Russian oil exports in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. We show that the embargo forced Russia to accept a $32/bbl discount on its Urals crude in March 2023 relative to January 2022, nearly half of which is directly attributable to the higher cost of shipping crude oil over longer distances, as Russia diverted much of its crude oil exports to India. Based on a calibrated model of global oil supply and demand, the remainder ($17/bbl) can be explained by increased Indian bargaining power. We also provide a similar analysis for the ESPO price discount on exports to China. In contrast, the price cap deprived Russia of the financial resources it spent on assembling a “shadow” fleet of tankers, but its effect on the Russian oil export price was negligible once the adoption of the price cap had facilitated the use of Western services to transport Russian oil to Asia.
    Keywords: Russia; oil; sanctions; embargo; price caps
    Date: 2024–03–26
    Abstract: This brief explores the shifting global trade landscape characterized by weakening globalization and rising protectionism, exacerbated by events such as the US-China trade disputes, COVID-19 pandemic, and Russia's invasion of Ukraine. It discusses how these factors have prompted a trend towards 'Open Strategic Autonomy' (OSA) in the European Union (EU), as evidenced by newly suggested industrial and trade policies. The EU's experiences during the pandemic and energy dependence on Russia have emphasized the need for resilient supply chains. The analysis draws from Jang et al. (2023) to examine how the EU's OSA has evolved in response to these changes, offering insights for policy implications for Korea.
    Keywords: Global supply chain; Industrail policy; EU
    Date: 2024–03–19
  3. By: Charalambakis, Evangelos; Teppa, Federica; Tsiortas, Athanasios
    Abstract: This paper analyses the consumer’s decision to apply for credit and the probability of the credit being accepted in the euro area during a period characterized by the unprecedented concomitance of events and changing borrowing conditions linked to the global COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. We use data between 2020Q1 and 2023Q2 from the ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey. We find that the credit demand is highest when the first lockdown ends and drops when supportive monetary compensation schemes are implemented. There is evidence that constrained households are significantly less likely to apply for credit. Credit is more likely to be accepted under favourable borrowing conditions and after the approval of national recovery plans. We also find that demographic, economic factors, perceptions and expectations are associated with the demand for credit and the credit grant. JEL Classification: C23, D12, D14, G51
    Keywords: consumer expectations survey, consumer finance, credit applications, liquidity constraints
    Date: 2024–03
  4. By: R, Pazhanisamy
    Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to explore the impact of BRICS unions’ currency on the Dollar and its performances on international trade among the nations. The compound reviews of literature on the classical, neo classical and modern theories of trade reveals the non existence of research works on the multinational union currencies and its impact on the validity of the dollar and the economic gain of the nations and its influence over the trade activities for which this attempt is made. Due to lack of availability of the numerical data on the new currency and its impact over the economics through trade the graphical approach is used with the logical realistic assumptions and justified how the value of currencies of BRICS nations in international market would certainly be appreciate. It also portrays that how simultaneously the dominant dollar depreciate its value through the market forces of demand and supply changes in the global scale
    Keywords: BRICS currency, Alternative to Dollar, Gain from trade, Value of currency in the international market, Foreign Exchange Exploitation, Solutions to US sanction
    JEL: E44 E51 E58 F23 F3 F33 F36 F38 F52 F55 G15 G21 P51
    Date: 2024–01–03
  5. By: Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés; Bartalucci, Federico; Kurmanov, Bakhytzhan; Rau, Genadiy; Nigmetov, Kaisar
    Abstract: Growing disparities in wealth, well-being, and access to services in Kazakhstan have raised serious concerns among policymakers, especially since the January 2022 protests. This paper evaluates these regional inequalities and presents the findings from Kazakhstan’s inaugural well-being survey. The survey, based on global best practices, involves 4, 032 face-to-face interviews with a diverse sample across all 20 regions, ensuring representation. The resulting indices—the Subjective Well-Being Index and the Regional Well-Being Index—highlight both within-region and between-region disparities. Notably, the indices reveal significant variations in well-being, with certain regions reporting notably lower satisfaction levels across dimensions like trust in institutions, satisfaction with financial and housing conditions, health care and education quality, and personal security perceptions.
    Keywords: well-being survey; inequality; Kazakhstan; regional development
    JEL: P25 P28 R58
    Date: 2024

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