|
on Confederation of Independent States |
| By: | Simone Emiliozzi (Bank of Italy); Fabrizio Ferriani (Bank of Italy); Andrea Gazzani (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 led to severe disruptions in the European gas market, with significant repercussions on a global scale. The conflict caused a surge in energy prices, a major reshuffling of global natural gas flows, and a shift in the policy-makers' agendas towards energy supply security. This paper describes the global gas market and analyses the consequences of the war, focusing in particular on the European gas market and on global LNG trade flows. We first review the characteristics of the gas market in terms of both pricing benchmarks and contractual terms. Next, we analyse the changes to LNG and natural gas production, consumption, and trade flows throughout the 2022-23 energy crisis. Finally, we review the main policy response to the energy crisis and present some considerations on the gas market outlook. |
| Keywords: | natural gas, energy crisis, LNG, fragmentation |
| JEL: | L95 P28 Q35 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_824_23&r=cis |
| By: | Aheeyar, Mohamed (International Water Management Institute); Jayathilake, Nilanthi (International Water Management Institute); Bucatariu, C.; Reitemeier, Maren (International Water Management Institute); Bandara, Ayomi (International Water Management Institute); Thiel, Felix (International Water Management Institute); Drechsel, Pay (International Water Management Institute) |
| Keywords: | Agricultural trade; Poverty; Agrifood systems; Supply chains; Market disruptions; Export controls; World markets; Conflicts; Food prices; Fertilizers; Commodities; Food security; Healthy diets; Subsidies; Policies |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iwt:bosers:h052225&r=cis |
| By: | Solanko, Laura |
| Abstract: | Russia does not release information on the numbers of mobilized and recruited men or casualties of war in Ukraine. In this small note, I propose to use information from regional banking data as a proxy for analyzing the regional incidence of Russian mobilization. Some regions have seen rapid increases in household bank deposits not easily attributable to regional macroeconomic or institutional factors. Such regions coincide with the regions with proportionally large numbers of mobilized soldiers. It is plausible that the high salaries and hefty payments promised to contract soldiers, mobilized reservists and their families in the event of serious injury or death show up as spikes in regional bank deposits. |
| Keywords: | Russia, regions, mobilization, war casualties, bank deposits |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bofitb:283620&r=cis |
| By: | Federle, Jonathan; Meier, André; Müller, Gernot J.; Mutschler, Willi; Schularick, Moritz |
| Abstract: | In view of increasing geopolitical tensions, the economic consequences and costs of wars on the global economy are increasingly coming into focus. In their Kiel Policy Brief, the authors examine the costs of more than 150 wars since 1870. In the immediate theaters of war alone, real GDP falls by an average of 30 percent five years after the start of the war, while inflation rises by up to 15 percentage points. Further war costs are added to neighboring countries and countries further away-whereby the costs decrease with increasing distance. Historical data is also used to calculate the expected economic damage caused by the war in Ukraine. The authors expect a cumulative GDP loss in Ukraine of around 120 billion US dollars by 2026. The Ukrainian capital stock would fall by more than 950 billion US dollars over the same period. The costs for third countries not directly involved in the war amount to 250 billion US dollars, of which around 70 billion US dollars are attributable to the European Union and 15-20 billion US dollars to Germany alone. With the "Price of War Calculator", a tool is available free of charge at priceofwar.org, which can be used to estimate the economic impact of hypothetical wars. |
| Abstract: | Angesichts zunehmender geopolitischer Spannungen rücken die wirtschaftlichen Folgen und Kosten von Kriegen auf die Weltwirtschaft verstärkt in den Fokus. In Ihrem Kiel Policy Brief untersuchen die Autoren die Kosten von mehr als 150 Kriegen seit 1870. Alleine auf den unmittelbaren Kriegsschauplätzen sinkt das reale BIP fünf Jahre nach Kriegsbeginn durchschnittlich um 30 Prozent, während die Inflation um bis zu 15 Prozentpunkte steigt. Weitere Kriegskosten kommen auf Nachbarländer und weiter entfernte Länder hinzu, die mit zunehmender Distanz sinken. Anhand der historischen Daten werden auch die zu erwartenden wirtschaftlichen Schäden durch den Krieg in der Ukraine berechnet. Die Autoren erwarten bis zum Jahr 2026 einen kumulativen BIP-Verlust in der Ukraine von etwa 120 Milliarden US-Dollar. Der ukrainische Kapitalstock würde im selben Zeitraum um mehr als 950 Milliarden US-Dollar sinken. Die Kosten für nicht direkt am Krieg beteiligte Drittländer belaufen sich auf 250 Milliarden US-Dollar, wovon etwa 70 Milliarden US-Dollar auf die Europäische Union und 15-20 Milliarden US-Dollar alleine auf Deutschland entfallen. Mit dem "Price of War Calculator" wird zudem ein Tool unter priceofwar.org zur freien Verfügung gestellt, mit dem die wirtschaftlichen Auswirkungen hypothetischer Kriege abgeschätzt werden können. |
| Keywords: | Geoeconomics, War, Spillovers, Distance, Supply Shocks, Geoökonomie, Krieg, Spillovers, Distanz, Angebotsschocks |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkpb:283621&r=cis |
| By: | Adenäuer, Marcel |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, Agricultural Finance, International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iats23:339495&r=cis |
| By: | Biermann, Marcus; Leromain, Elsa |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates how firms' international linkages to Russia and Ukraine affected investors' expectations following the escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian war. For this, we perform an event study around the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, finding that firms with significant trade activity with Russia experienced a substantial reduction in cumulative returns. The effect on cumulative returns is especially pronounced for firms that are dependent on Russian commodities. The impact on the aggregate stock market performance of third countries was on average 0.8 percentage points. The highest losses were borne by European countries. |
| Keywords: | russia-ukraine war; trade linkages; multinationals; stock market; event study; ukraine |
| JEL: | F15 F23 G14 G15 |
| Date: | 2023–01–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:121332&r=cis |
| By: | Lippert, Barbara |
| Abstract: | Sollte der Europäische Rat im Dezember oder später grünes Licht dafür geben, EU-Beitrittsverhandlungen mit der Ukraine und Moldau zu eröffnen, dann geht es nicht mehr nur um symbolische Solidarität mit einem von Russland überfallenen bzw. bedrohten Nachbarn. Vielmehr beginnt im Schatten des Krieges ein neues Kapitel der Erweiterungspolitik. Nach der Türkei und den sechs Ländern des Westlichen Balkans bildet Osteuropa mit der Ukraine, Moldau und Georgien den dritten Erweiterungsraum. Spätestens seit Russlands Vollinvasion in der Ukraine versteht Brüssel unter Erweiterung die Expansion in strategisch wichtige Räume. Geopolitische Forderungen nach schnellen Beitritten nagen dabei an der konservativen Erweiterungsdoktrin - nach der es weder Rabatte auf die Kopenhagener Kriterien für eine EU-Mitgliedschaft geben darf noch Abkürzungen auf dem Weg zur Aufnahme. Hinzu kommt, dass die Beitrittsfragen bald in die Fährnisse der Kriegsdiplomatie geraten könnten, wenn es um dauerhafte Sicherheit für die Nachkriegs-Ukraine gehen wird. Die Europäische Kommission greift nun Ideen auf, wie neue Mitglieder schrittweise integriert werden könnten. Damit versucht sie, dem Dilemma zwischen Geo- und Integrationspolitik auszuweichen. |
| Keywords: | Europäische Union, EU-Erweiterung, Erweiterungsdoktrin, Gradualismus, Kopenhagener Kriterien, Ukraine, Moldau, Georgien, Westlicher Balkan, Gemeinsame Außen- und Sicherheitspolitik (GASP), Gemeinsame Sicherheits- und Verteidigungspolitik (GSVP) |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpakt:283043&r=cis |
| By: | Huterer, Manfred; Sahm, Astrid |
| Abstract: | Die russische Vollinvasion der Ukraine stellte im Februar 2022 auch die Souveränität von Belarus in Frage. Das Land diente als Aufmarschgebiet für den Angriff und wurde damit zum Ko-Aggressor. Doch veränderte sich das Verhältnis zwischen Minsk und Moskau, je länger der Krieg dauerte. Der belarussische Machthaber Lukaschenka trat gegenüber Kremlchef Putin zunehmend als selbstbewusster Kriegsdienstleister auf. Er konnte zugleich eine direkte militärische Beteiligung vermeiden und suchte die Chance auf eine Vermittlerrolle zu wahren. Dennoch nahm die strukturelle Abhängigkeit des Landes von Russland in vielen Bereichen weiter zu. Gegenwärtig ist dieser schleichende Souveränitätsverlust noch umkehrbar. Damit dies so bleibt, dürfen die EU und Deutschland das Land nicht abschreiben. |
| Keywords: | Belarus, Russland, russischer Angriffskrieg gegen die Ukraine, Alexander Lukaschenka, Wladimir Putin, Jewgenij Prigoschin, russisch-belarussischer Unionsstaat |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpakt:283040&r=cis |
| By: | Paul, Michael |
| Abstract: | Russlands Krieg gegen die Ukraine zeigt keine Zeichen der Entspannung, der strategische Wettbewerb zwischen China und den USA dauert an, und die sich ausweitende militärische Kooperation zwischen China und Russland lässt die Herausforderungen für die internationale Staatenwelt noch wachsen. Die Arktis erscheint in diesem Zusammenhang wie ein Relikt vergangener Zeiten, in denen sie als Hort des Friedens galt. Aber der arktische Exzeptionalismus war schon lange vor dem russischen Angriffskrieg am Ende. Um ein Minimum an Kooperation wiederherzustellen, bedarf es informeller Gespräche, die nach dem Ende des Krieges helfen können, eine Perspektive aufzuzeigen. Anknüpfungspunkte dafür könnten zwei Projekte bilden, die in der Vergangenheit relativ unstrittig waren: die Bergung radioaktiver Überreste des Kalten Krieges und eine Vereinbarung zur Vermeidung unbeabsichtigter Eskalation auf hoher See (INCSEA). Ein Rückgriff auf alte Ansätze der Rüstungskontrolle könnte in Zukunft wieder Zusammenarbeit in der Arktis eröffnen. |
| Keywords: | Arktis, Rüstungskontrolle, Arktischer Rat, nukleare Überreste INCSEA, ACHOD, ASFR, ACGF, VBM, VSBM |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpakt:283050&r=cis |
| By: | Maryann Osadebamwen Asemota (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Facial recognition technologies demonstrate a wide range of application fields. Among them is the use of facial recognition for recruitment. This has moved from traditional face scanning to actual emotion detection with the aim of identifying the right candidate for the respective job position. The purpose of this study was to show how facial recognition technology is applied for recruitment in Russia, as well as the benefits, risks, and challenges. The paper answers the question on how the technology has been applied in or adapted to the Russian environment as well as highlighting the corresponding benefits, risks and challenges. Russian employers usually make certain changes to use this facial recognition technology for recruitment including a reduced number of interview questions as compared to a physical interview, interpreting emotions differently and combining it with physical interviews. The benefits include the possibility of checking facial expressions in order to detect emotions, analysing emotions to get information on some personality traits, analysing candidates’ interests, creating candidates’ profiles, reactions to specific questions, checking for culture fit, and finally more objectivity. Finally, the paper argues that facial recognition technology for recruitment is still at an early developing phase in Russia. There is still a lot that can be done to ensure its proper usage for recruitment. |
| Keywords: | Facial Recognition Technology, Recruitment, Artificial Intelligence, E-HRM, Automated Interviews |
| JEL: | Z |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:126sti2023&r=cis |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Following Kazakhstan’s recovery from the 2014-15 decline in oil prices, the country was hit by a series of shocks, starting with the COVID-19 pandemic, then the January 2022 social unrest, and most recently the fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. So far, that has had limited impact on output, also thanks to various measures taken by the authorities to stabilize the economy. However, there are risks to the outlook. The financial system, which is small and bank-dominated, underwent significant changes during this period. Banks’ largest exposures are to households while large corporates rely on non-residents for funding. |
| Date: | 2024–02–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2024/048&r=cis |
| By: | Chellai, Fatih |
| Abstract: | Subject and purpose of work: In recent years, global food systems have faced challenges like disasters, extreme weather events, and market fluctuations, such as the Ukraine-Russia conflict. This study analyzes strategic crop reserves, specifically for wheat and rice, in Arab countries. It examines the objectives and obstacles associated with these reserves. Material and methods: different statistical methods have been used, including regression analysis and neural network prediction models. Results: Findings reveal significant agricultural production deficits in Arab economies. However, some countries maintain substantial crop reserves. We found an inverse relationship between wheat reserves and wheat prices . Additionally, energy prices correlate positively with agricultural commodity prices. Forecasting models anticipate short-term global grain stock stability but predict short-term increases in agricultural price indices (until 2024) followed by long-term decreases (by 2030). Conclusions: Policymakers should support agricultural strategies, particularly for strategic crops. To address current challenges, we suggest securing long-term contracts for strategic crops, diversifying suppliers, and avoiding reliance on a few sources. |
| Keywords: | Strategic Food;Food Reserve, Food security, Arab Countries. |
| JEL: | C1 E3 Q1 |
| Date: | 2024–02–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:120067&r=cis |
| By: | Polbin, Andrey; Shumilov, Andrei |
| Abstract: | The paper examines the quality of forecasts of Russian GDP and its components (household consumption, investment, exports and imports) using a model with Bayesian shrinkage of time-varying parameters (TVP) based on hierarchical normal-gamma prior. Such models account for the possible nonlinearity of relationships and, at the same time, can deal with the overfitting problem. We find that, compared to simpler benchmarks, the Bayesian TVP model with exogenous predictors gives better forecasts for GDP at horizons of 2-4 quarters, and for investment – at horizons of 1-3 quarters. When predicting other components of GDP, Bayesian TVP models do not demonstrate systematic superiority over other models. |
| Keywords: | forecasting; Russian GDP and its components; time-varying parameter model; Bayesian shrinkage; normal-gamma prior |
| JEL: | C22 C53 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:120170&r=cis |
| By: | Clodomiro Ferreira (Bank of Spain); Stefano Pica (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | We study household expectations for a wide range of macroeconomic and individual-level variables in the six largest euro area countries. Although households disagree in their survey responses, their expectations are correlated in the cross-section. Two principal components account for a significant portion of the variance of all expectations. These components capture household perceptions of the sources of macroeconomic dynamics, with the first capturing supply-side views and the second component reflecting demand-side views. This structure of perceptions and disagreement is stable across countries and over time and does not vary with demographic or socioeconomic characteristics. We then use these insights to identify two common factors driving expectations over time. These factors are consistent with a narrative based on perceived supply-side inflationary pressures after the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Recent monetary policy tightening has impacted both factors, with a negative effect on economic growth expectations and ambivalent effects on inflation expectations. We conclude that understanding how people think about price increases is crucial for managing inflation expectations. |
| Keywords: | survey, expectations, inflation, output, supply, demand |
| JEL: | D1 D8 E2 E3 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_1441_24&r=cis |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Growth is estimated to have reached 4.8 percent in 2023 and is projected to slow to 3.1 percent in 2024. Inflation declined to 9.8 percent in 2023, still well above the National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK)’s target of 5 percent. Risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside. The state’s footprint in the economy remains large and structural reform implementation has been slow in recent years. Despite strong buffers, the economy needs to be better prepared for future shocks in both the short term (e.g., from war spillovers, inflation, and global economic and financial conditions) and the medium term (e.g., from geo-economic fragmentation, climate events, and global decarbonization). |
| Date: | 2024–02–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2024/046&r=cis |
| By: | Maximilian Konradt; Thomas McGregor; Mr. Frederik G Toscani |
| Abstract: | What is the effect of carbon pricing on inflation? This paper shows empirically that the consequences of the European Union’s Emission Trading System (ETS) and national carbon taxation on inflation have been limited in the euro area, so far. This result is supported by analysis based on a panel local projections approach, as well as event studies based on individual countries. Our estimates suggest that carbon taxes raised the price of energy but had limited effects on overall consumer prices. Since future climate policy will need to be much more ambitious compared to what has been observed so far, including the need for larger increases in carbon prices, possible non-linearities might make extrapolating from historical results difficult. We thus also use input-output tables to simulate the mechanical effect of a carbon tax consistent with the EU’s ‘Fit-for-55’ commitments on inflation. The required increase of effective carbon prices from around 40 Euro per ton of CO2 in 2021 to around 150 Euro by 2030 could raise annual euro area inflation by between 0.2 and 0.4 percentage points. It is worth noting that the energy price increases caused by the rise in the effective carbon price to 150 Euro is substantially smaller than the energy price spike seen in 2022 following the invasion of Ukraine. |
| Keywords: | Green transition; carbon taxes; climate policy; inflation |
| Date: | 2024–02–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/031&r=cis |
| By: | Ermisch, John |
| Abstract: | The paper introduces to comparative cross-national fertility research a method to formalise what is meant by the TFR’s of countries ‘moving together’. It is based on the estimation of long run fertility relationships which are stationary series (so called ‘cointegrating equations’). Six sets of countries with similar TFR movements within each were identified: Northwest Europe (England and Wales, France, Netherlands and Belgium); (2) Southern Europe (Italy, Spain and Portugal); (3) the Nordic countries (Denmark, Sweden, Norway and Finland); (4) Germany and Austria; (5) the Eastern Europe group of Poland, Czechia, Hungary and Estonia); and (6) the group of Russia, Belarus and Lithuania. There are unique features of TFR movements in each region. But Northwest Europe, the Nordic countries and Southern Europe all share a decline in their TFR during the past decade, albeit from different levels of fertility. This strongly suggests that factors influencing fertility during this period do not stem from particular features in each country but broader influences, whether social or economic. |
| Date: | 2023–09–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:nej84&r=cis |
| By: | Lukas Jonas (Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg); Carolin Martin (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK)); Thomas Theobald (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK)) |
| Abstract: | Der Wohnungsbau in Deutschland hat bis zum Jahr 2022 einen über eine Dekade währenden Aufschwung erfahren, der sich neben nachfrageseitigen Faktoren insbesondere auf günstige Finanzierungsbedingungen stützte. Mit den Energiepreisschocks aufgrund des Ukraine-Kriegs und den darauffolgenden Zinserhöhungen der Europäischen Zentralbank hat sich der Ausblick für das Baugewerbe insgesamt deutlich verschlechtert. Der vorliegende Policy Brief schätzt auf Basis übersichtlicher Kointegration-Spezifikationen wichtige Kenngrößen der Bauaktivität und prognostiziert ihre zukünftige Entwicklung. Zwar sind die geschätzten Spezifikationen mit großer Unsicherheit verbunden und sollten deshalb vor allem als Risikoszenario gesehen werden; die prognostizierte Entwicklung ist allerdings erheblich: Danach würden die realen Wohnungsbauinvestitionen (Bruttowertschöpfung des Baugewerbes) 2023 und 2024 um 20, 9 Mrd. Euro (13, 4 Mrd. Euro) bzw. 16, 4 Mrd. Euro (10, 6 Mrd. Euro) zurückgehen. Die Baufertigstellungen werden der modellierten Spezifikation zufolge von 295.000 Wohnungen 2022 auf 223.000 Wohnungen 2023 und 177.000 Wohnungen 2024 fallen. Die Projektion für 2024 übertrifft den 2009 erreichten historischen Tiefststand der Wohnungsbautätigkeit nur noch leicht. Um angesichts dieses drohenden Einbruchs der Bauaktivität einen anhaltenden Kapazitätsabbau im Baugewerbe zu verhindern, der auch mittel- bis langfristig das verfügbare Angebot weit hinter dem Bedarf zurückbleiben lässt, empfiehlt der Policy Brief einen auf die tatsächliche Entwicklung in dem Sektor konditionierte Ausweitung des öffentlichen Wohnungbaus. |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imk:pbrief:155-2023&r=cis |
| By: | Aitmagambetov Duman Ramazanovich (L.N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University, Kazakhstan) |
| Abstract: | The article is devoted to a historical and geographical overview of the famine in Kazakhstan during 1921-1922 and its reflection in the modern appearance of Kazakhstanis. In Kazakhstan, this famine is known as the first famine of the Kazakhs under Soviet rule. The main purpose of this work is to familiarize foreign researchers and readers with the topic of the famine of 1921-1922 and its consequences. As a research task, the author attempted to present to the reader the main causes of famine in Kazakhstan, the scale of damage and the impact of famine on the life of the indigenous population of the republic in modern times through a review of historical and demographic analysis. The peculiarity of the research methodology is the generalization and systematization of works on the subject and conclusions regarding the traces of injuries in the minds of the population. The author concludes that not all aspects of the famine of 1921-1922 have been sufficiently studied, among the necessary to study, in addition to historical-demographic and landscape-climatic aspects, the author also includes historical-geographical and migration aspects. The article uses new archival materials and the latest research of Kazakhstani scientists and historians on the topic in recent years, which allows us to delve even deeper into the thick of those events. |
| Keywords: | famine, food spread, Kazakh famine, demographic crisis, migration, mental trauma, historical memory |
| Date: | 2023–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:raiswp:0297&r=cis |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Selected Issues |
| Date: | 2024–02–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2024/047&r=cis |
| By: | Kamin, Katrin; Langhammer, Rolf J. |
| Abstract: | The global economic landscape is undergoing a transformative shift, as evidenced by the BRICS nations’ increasing dominance. This development raises questions about the emergence of economic and political blocks and their potential leverage. China and India, as the world’s most populous nations within the group, are instrumental in driving global economic demand. The expansion of BRICS, with new members possessing vast natural resources, amplifies the group’s influence. However, the BRICS face a monetary and financial Achilles heel, especially in the case of China, hindering their ability to act independently. As the BRICS gain geopolitical significance, the G7 responds with infrastructure initiatives and trade agreements, though success hinges on reciprocal concessions. The BRICS thus serve as a wake-up call for the G7, prompting considerations of rejuvenating political and economic links amidst a shifting global landscape. |
| Keywords: | BRICS+, global order, International Trade, strategic resources, Monetary Policy |
| JEL: | F02 F15 F36 F40 F59 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkie:281985&r=cis |
| By: | Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates the impact of varying magnitudes of oil price shocks on the equity market returns in BRICS countries under diverse market conditions using quantile-on-quantile regression analysis. Uniquely, unlike previous studies, this paper differentiates between demand and supply oil price shocks, under the assumption of a perfectly elastic oil supply. This assumption is grounded in a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) framework, enhancing the analysis's precision in identifying the specific nature of oil price shocks. The empirical findings reveal that the impact of demand oil price shocks on the equity markets of BRICS nations varies according to the resource endowment of each country, showing distinct effects between countries with greater and lesser resource endowments. Additionally, the influence of supply oil price shocks on equity markets differs based on the market conditions, specifically whether the countries are net oil importers or exporters. These findings offer critical insights for policymakers and investors in BRICS countries, enabling the development of economic and business strategies that are closely aligned with the unique economic conditions and characteristics of each nation. |
| Keywords: | oil price shocks; stock markets; BRICS; quantile-on-quantile |
| JEL: | C31 C58 G15 |
| Date: | 2024–02–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:120190&r=cis |
| By: | Bayerlein, Michael; Villarreal, Pedro A. |
| Abstract: | Im Aufbau einer neuen globalen Gesundheitsarchitektur nach der Covid-19-Pandemie stehen wichtige Weichenstellungen an, insbesondere bei der Verhandlung des Pandemieabkommens und der Schaffung robuster Lieferketten. Vor dem Hintergrund ihrer systemischen Rivalität betrachten die USA und China globale Gesundheitspolitik als Feld geopolitischer Konkurrenz. Das gefährdet die Umsetzung der Lehren aus der Covid-19-Pandemie und den Schutz menschlicher Gesundheit. Für Deutschland stellt sich die Frage, inwieweit es seinen multilateralen Ansatz in der globalen Gesundheitspolitik anpassen muss, um auf die zunehmenden geopolitischen Spannungen zu antworten. Dazu empfiehlt es sich, unabhängige Gestaltungsmacht zu entwickeln und gleichzeitig ein verlässlicher, multilateraler Partner zu sein. |
| Keywords: | Gesundheitsgovernance, globale Gesundheitsarchitektur, globale Gesundheitspolitik, Gesundheitsdiplomatie, Pandemieabkommen, medizinische Lieferketten, Diversifizierung von Lieferketten, Handel mit medizinischen Gütern, Weltgesundheitsorganisation, WHO, Multilateralismus, Geopolitik, systemische Rivalität, Deutschland, EU, USA, China, Russland, Nationale Sicherheitsstrategie, China, Strategie |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpakt:283036&r=cis |
| By: | Aydin, Yasar; Bastian, Jens |
| Abstract: | Ungeachtet politischer Differenzen zwischen Berlin und Ankara verzeichnete der deutsch-türkische Handel 2022 neue Rekordwerte. Von einer Krise für deutsche Unternehmen, die sich in der Türkei betätigen, kann kaum die Rede sein. Gleichwohl stellen sich zahlreiche Herausforderungen, die mit der Hyperinflation, der Währungsabwertung und der fortschreitenden Aushebelung der Rechtsstaatlichkeit in der Türkei zusammenhängen. Der Bundesregierung stehen verschiedene Optionen offen, die Handelsbeziehungen mit der Türkei zu vertiefen und bisher unausgeschöpfte Kooperationspotenziale künftig besser zu nutzen. Dies kann zur Vertrauensbildung beitragen und eine konstruktive Ausgangslage bilden für Beziehungen jenseits des Transaktionalismus sowie für die Modernisierung der Zollunion zwischen der Europäischen Union (EU) und der Türkei. |
| Keywords: | deutsch-türkische Beziehungen, deutsch-türkische Handelsbeziehungen, deutsch-türkischer Handel, Wirtschaftskooperation, Inflation, Währungsabwertung, türkische Lira, Rechtsstaatlichkeit, Visapolitik, Flüchtlingspakt EU–, Türkei, Erdbeben, Energiekooperation, grüner Wasserstoff, BRICS, BRICS+, Eurofighter, Zollunion EU–, Türkei, Russlandsanktionen der EU |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpakt:283038&r=cis |
| By: | Kenneth P. Brevoort |
| Abstract: | Concerns have lingered since the 2007 subprime crisis that government housing policies promote risky mortgage lending. The first peer-reviewed evidence of a causal effect was published by the Review of Financial Studies in a paper (Saadi, 2020) linking the crisis to changes in the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) in 1995. A review of that paper, however, shows that it misrepresents the policy changes as having taken effect in mid-1998, 2.5 years after they were implemented. When the correct timing is used, a similar analysis yields no evidence of a relationship between CRA and riskier mortgage lending. Instead, the results are shown to reflect an unrelated confounding event, the first collapse of the U.S. subprime mortgage market following Russia's debt default in August 1998. |
| Keywords: | Community Reinvestment Act (CRA), House prices; Mortgage lending; Subprime crisis |
| JEL: | G21 G28 R38 |
| Date: | 2024–02–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2024-09&r=cis |