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on Confederation of Independent States |
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Issue of 2024‒03‒11
sixteen papers chosen by |
| By: | Lippert, Barbara |
| Abstract: | Now that the European Council has given the green light to opening EU accession negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova, it is clear that the Union is no longer simply showing symbolic solidarity with neighbours invaded or threatened by Russia. Rather, a new chapter of enlargement policy is beginning in the shadow of war. After Turkey and the six Western Balkan countries, the third enlargement area is formed by Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia in Eastern Europe. Ever since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Brussels has understood enlargement to mean expansion into strategically important regions. Geopolitical demands for rapid accession are gnawing away at the existing enlargement doctrine, according to which there can be neither compromises on the Copenhagen criteria for EU membership nor shortcuts along the path to accession. What is more, accession issues could soon enter the perilous waters of war diplomacy when lasting security for post-war Ukraine is at stake. In a bid to overcome the dilemma between geopolitics and integration policy, the European Commission is currently developing ideas about how new members can be integrated step by step. |
| Keywords: | European Council, European Commission, European Union, EU accession negotiations, Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Russia |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:283044&r=cis |
| By: | Lin, Sunghum; Oh, Saera |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, Crop Production/Industries, Demand and Price Analysis, International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iats23:339543&r=cis |
| By: | Harun Alp; Matthew Klepacz; Akhil Saxena |
| Abstract: | The surge in oil prices in the wake of the post-COVID-19 economic rebound and Russia's invasion of Ukraine exerted significant upward pressure on consumer price inflation around the world. As seen in the left panel of Figure 1, Brent crude oil prices soared to nearly $130 a barrel in March 2022 and remained elevated through June, before only slowly retracing the gains. |
| Date: | 2023–12–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfn:2023-12-15-1&r=cis |
| By: | Blagov, Boris; Dirks, Maximilian; Funke, Michael |
| Abstract: | Using Russia as a case study and a global VAR model as a methodological tool, we analyze how heightened geopolitical risk shocks propagate across advanced economies and quantify the economic effects of these events. The global VAR impulse response functions in response to the skyrocketing Russian geopolitical risk shock after Russia's invasion of Ukraine revealed a contraction of GDP and an increase in inflation. Eastern European neighboring countries are particularly affected by the Russian geopolitical risk shock. We also document a strong component of the Russian geopolitical risk shock that is not driven by fossil fuel prices. |
| Abstract: | Unter Verwendung des Fallbeispiels Russland und eines globalen VAR-Modells als methodisches Instrument analysieren wir, wie sich Schocks eines erhöhten geopolitischen Risikos in fortgeschrittenen Volkswirtschaften verbreiten und quantifizieren die wirtschaftlichen Auswirkungen dieser Ereignisse. Die globalen VAR-Impuls-Antwort-Funktionen als Reaktion auf den sprunghaften Anstieg des geopolitischen Risikos in Russland nach dem Einmarsch in die Ukraine zeigen einen Rückgang des BIPs und einen Anstieg der Inflation. Staaten in Osteuropa sind von diesem geopolitischen Risikoschock in Russland besonders betroffen. Ein Großteil der beobachteten Effekte wird nicht durch Energiepreise getrieben. |
| Keywords: | Geopolitical risk, international business cycle transmission, global VAR model, Russia |
| JEL: | C32 E32 F51 F52 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:282988&r=cis |
| By: | Christian von Hirschhausen; Lukas Barner; Franziska Holz; Claudia Kemfert; Niels Kunz; Fabian Präger; Björn Steigerwald |
| Abstract: | Zwei Jahre nach Beginn des russischen Angriffskriegs auf die Ukraine haben sich die Erdgasmärkte in Deutschland stabilisiert. Trotz der gesunkenen Importe aus Russland waren auch im Winter 2023/24 weder die Versorgung gefährdet noch die Speicher unzureichend befüllt. Eine Gasmangellage, mit der der beschleunigte Ausbau von Flüssigerdgas (LNG)-Infrastruktur seit dem Sommer 2022 gerechtfertigt wird, trat zu keinem Zeitpunkt ein. Angesichts zu erwartender rückläufiger Erdgasverbräuche in Deutschland und der Stabilisierung der Versorgung scheint es angebracht, die im LNG-Beschleunigungsgesetz (LNGG) angedachten Vorhabenstandorte auf den Prüfstand zu stellen. Dabei sollte die Bundesregierung von der Entwicklung landseitiger LNG-Terminals absehen und die schwimmenden Regasifizierungsanlagen (Floating Storage and Regasification Units - FSRU) neu bewerten. Aus Klimaschutzperspektive bleiben weiterhin Energieeffizienz und proaktives Gassparen wichtig. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwakt:92de&r=cis |
| By: | S.М. Nurdavletova (L.N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University, Astana); Р.M. Yesdauletova (L.N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University, Astana); A.O. Yesdauletov (L.N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University, Astana) |
| Abstract: | As a full member of the international community, Kazakhstan contributes to ensuring geopolitical stability and international security, presenting itself as a state that is fully aware of its responsibility to provide global energy balance and security. Central Asia is increasingly becoming the new focus of Chinese diplomacy. This region is an axis linking Northeast, West and South Asia, China and Russia. The People's Republic of China (PRC) is beginning to move closer to key political and economic players in the Central Asian region. Therefore, it is necessary to consider how the new initiative of China, Belt and Road, will affect its further energy cooperation with Kazakhstan and other countries of Central Asia. Kazakh-Chinese cooperation contributes to strengthening the independence of Kazakhstan, allowing development of its energy resources and their export to European markets. But China, as a rapidly growing consumer of energy, inevitably emerges as a potential competitor to the United States and the European Union in Central Asia. Based on a scientific analysis of the strategic interests of Kazakhstan and China, the main purpose of this article is to study new systemic approaches for optimizing cooperation between these two states, which affect national, bilateral, and regional/international issues in the framework of economic development and geopolitics. In turn, based on the study, recommendations will be made for the state structures of the Republic of Kazakhstan in the field of energy policy and energy security of the country. |
| Keywords: | Kazakhstan, China, Central Asia, energy policy, oil and gas |
| Date: | 2023–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:raiswp:0314&r=cis |
| By: | Odran Bonnet; Étienne Fize; Tristan Loisel; Lionel Wilner |
| Abstract: | This article exploits both the crude oil price surge consecutive to the invasion of Ukraine and 2022 fuel excise tax rebates in France as quasi-natural experiments to infer the price sensitivity of fuel demand. Based on granular individual bank account data at the transaction level, we properly disentangle anticipation effects from price effects, and estimate an average price elasticity of -0.31. It varies little with respect to income and location but substantially decreases, in absolute, with respect to fuel spending and is higher for retirees. We evaluate financial and distributional effects of the actual tax policy as well as its impact on CO2 emissions based on counterfactual simulations. We empirically demonstrate that resorting to transfers, be they targeted or not, achieves only imperfect compensation against fuel inflation. However, we show that a policy maker subject to a tight budget constraint and seeking to alleviate excessive losses, relative to income, prefers means-tested transfers to rebates. |
| Keywords: | commodity taxation, excise tax, tax-and-transfer schemes, fuel price elasticity, anticipatory behaviour, transaction-level data |
| JEL: | C18 C51 D12 H23 H31 L71 Q31 Q35 Q41 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10917&r=cis |
| By: | Karen Hermans;; Bea Cantillon;; Anikó Bernát;; Elena Carrillo-Álvarez;; Irene Cussó-Parcerisas;; Lauri Mäkinen; Júlia Muñoz Martínez;; Péter Szivos; |
| Abstract: | Many European welfare states are confronted with a growing demand for charitable food aid among households that struggle to make ends meet. This issue is particularly pressing today as a consequence of the COVID-19 crisis, the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the following soaring inflation. In this exploratory case study research, we estimate the financial importance of charitable food aid packages for vulnerable recipient families by using cross-country comparable food basket data. Concretely, we collected data about the content of food packages and conducted interviews in twelve food distribution points in Antwerp, Barcelona, Budapest and Helsinki. Furthermore, we evaluate the content of food aid packages by comparing them with food basket and Household Budget Survey data. Based on the data in our twelve case study organisations, we find that the monetary value of food aid packages differs greatly between and within cities. While average food aid packages in Antwerp and Barcelona exceed 100 euros a month (adjusted for Purchasing Power Parities), this value is lower in Helsinki but especially in Budapest. This variation seems to be partially driven by differences in administrative and volunteer capacity, the (financial) support by municipalities and the position within the broader food aid network. Nevertheless, food aid packages as a top-up to inadequate minimum incomes are never able to close the at-risk-of-poverty-gap for social assistance recipients in the studied organisations in the four countries. Furthermore, our results show that the food aid packages do not fully represent a healthy and varied diet and do not correspond to people’s average consumption choices. Hence, it is very likely that food aid recipients will attach a lower recipient value to the food aid packages than the estimated market values, because the packages do not entirely reflect specific household preferences and needs. |
| Date: | 2023–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hdl:wpaper:2301&r=cis |
| By: | Fargher, Ben |
| Abstract: | Global food security in a riskier world is a vitally important topic. Nearly 830 million people are food insecure – there are real and urgent challenges facing the global food system. Topics such as market access and the empowerment of people, especially as it relates to smallholder agriculture in the Asia Pacific region, are critical. As Cargill sits at the centre of the global agricultural supply chain, working alongside farmers, producers, manufacturers, retailers, governments, and other organisations, the presentation will raise solutions for resilient food and nutrition systems, with particular emphasis on the supply chain. It will explain the Cargill experience of the implications for farmers of disruptions to global supply chains in a modern geopolitical environment including from rising demand, climate and geopolitical conflict. Experiences from COVID-19 lockdowns and the more recent disruptions due to the war in Ukraine, have had significant implications for farmers and agribusiness and strategies for diversification of markets, more flexible and resilient supply chains, and planning for resilience to reduce future vulnerability for the benefit of consumers and growers will be considered. One if not the most urgent challenge is the climate crisis. Cargill is committed to reducing the climate impact of agriculture and agriculture is part of the solution to this challenge. Working with suppliers, customers, and partners, action-oriented, lasting solutions and several practical examples will be outlined. |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries, International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:cfcp23:339619&r=cis |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Malta has experienced an impressive recovery from the pandemic and demonstrated resilience to shocks resulting from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. With weaker growth in Europe and waning post-pandemic pent-up demand, staff expect growth to decelerate somewhat but continue to expand by 6¼ percent in 2023 and 5 percent in 2024, among the highest in Europe. Persistent inflationary pressures are expected, while concern has risen about growing capacity constraints. The financial system has demonstrated resilience to successive shocks. |
| Date: | 2024–01–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2024/033&r=cis |
| By: | Cristina Cattaneo; Daniela Grieco; Nicola Lacetera; Mario Macis |
| Abstract: | We study out-group biases in attitudes toward refugees, and the effect of European Union (EU) immigration policies on these views, using an online survey experiment including 4, 087 Italian participants. We assess attitudes using donations to a randomly assigned group: Italian victims of violence or refugees fleeing wars in Ukraine or African countries. We also employ a novel measure, the share donated in cash. While donations indicated less support for African and Ukrainian refugees compared to Italian victims, the cash measure revealed a stronger prejudice against distant out-groups, with participants giving African refugees a smaller proportion of cash donations. This result was mainly driven by individuals with right-leaning political views. Providing information about immigration policy reforms that give the EU a more substantial role in receiving and allocating refugees had no impact. Textual analysis supports these findings. |
| JEL: | C99 D02 D64 J15 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32139&r=cis |
| By: | Faus Onbargi, Alexia; Dombrowsky, Ines |
| Abstract: | Infolge des russischen Einmarschs in die Ukraine und des anschließenden Kriegs ist es bei der deutschen Energiewende zu einer politischen Neuausrichtung gekommen. Mit dem im Frühjahr 2022 gestarteten Osterpaket wurde eine Reihe ehrgeiziger Ziele im Bereich erneuerbarer Energien gesetzt und Gesetze verabschiedet, um zugleich Klimamaßnahmen und Energiesicherhheit zu ermöglichen. Deren Umsetzung soll Hand in Hand mit bestehenden Gesetzen, wie dem Kohleausstiegsgesetz und dem Bundesklimaschutzgesetz, erfolgen. Die Abstimmung politischer Maßnahmen und Ziele zur Minderung der Treibhausgas-Emissionen und zur Gewährleistung zuverlässiger und bezahlbarer Energie fordert eine konzertierte Politikkohärenz, nämlich die Maximierung von Synergien und Minimierung von Zielkonflikten in der Verfolgung einer Vielzahl von Zielen. Die Minimierung von Zielkonflikten gewinnt umso mehr an Bedeutung, wenn die Energiewende für alle gerecht sein und als Vehikel eines breiteren "gerechten Wandels" (just transition) dienen soll, und ist auch für die Erreichung der Ziele der Agenda 2030 für Nachhaltige Entwicklung (wozu auch "Niemanden zurücklassen" zählt) und des Übereinkommens von Paris von Bedeutung. In diesem Policy Brief werden, mit besonderem Fokus auf Nordrhein-Westfalen als einem der wichtigsten deutschen Kohlebergbauregionen, zunächst einige der wesentlichsten politischen Maßnahmen - und (In-)Kohärenzen - mit Blick auf die Energiewende beleuchtet. Im Anschluss werden - durch die Brille von Ideen, Interessen und Institutionen - wichtige politische Triebkräfte der (In-)Kohärenz von Politiken in zwei politischen Prozessen der Energiewende, die für den Elektrizitätssektor von besonderer Bedeutung sind - dem Kohleausstieg und dem Ausbau der Onshore-Windkraft -, untersucht. Wenngleich Solarkraft und grüner Wasserstoff für eine erfolgreiche Energiewende ebenfalls eine Schlüsselrolle spielen, werden sie hier nicht behandelt. Unsere Erkenntnisse basieren auf der Analyse relevanter Politikdokumente sowie 28 halbstrukturierter Interviews. Auf dem Weg zu einem "gerechten Wandel" werden zur Förderung der Kohärenz der deutschen Energiewende und als Beitrag zur laufenden Weiterentwicklung der NRW-Nachhaltigkeitsstrategie die folgenden Empfehlungen ausgesprochen. Diese könnten auch für den neu ernannten NRW-Nachhaltigkeitsbeirat von Interesse sein: • Abbau ideologischer, institutioneller und interessenbasierter Hürden ambitionierter Klimapolitik durch Politikkohärenz. In NRW sind die Einhaltung der jüngsten Versprechen eines Kohleausstiegs bis 2030 und einer Aufhebung der 1000-Meter-"Regel" (d. h. 1km zwischen Wohngebäuden und Windturbinen) zentral. Diese Selbstverpflichtungen sollten in die weiterentwickelte NRW-Nachhaltigkeitsstrategie einfließen und Einzug in die Gesetzgebung halten. • Förderung größerer politischer Gleichberechtigung bei allen Entscheidungsprozessen rund um die Energiewende auf allen Regierungsebenen (Bund, Länder und Kommunen) hin zu einer stärkeren Energiedemokratie im Rahmen von Beratungs- und Beteiligungsmechanismen. Die Verminderung politischer Ungleichheiten (z. B. durch die Gründung von Genossenschaften) ist für eine erhöhte öffentliche Akzeptanz von Vorhaben zu erneuerbaren Energien, einem der Ziele der aktuellen NRW-Nachhaltigkeitsstrategie, von wesentlicher Bedeutung. • Integration von Vorstellungen der sozialen und Klimagerechtigkeit in die Energiewende-Politik, um sicherzustellen, dass die deutsche Energiewende für alle Menschen, und nicht nur für deutsche Bergleute, gerecht ist. Dabei sollten Vorstellungen von Verfahrens-, Verteilungs- und Anerkennungsgerechtigkeit berücksichtigt und in der weiterentwickelten NRW-Nachhaltigkeitsstrategie betont werden. |
| Keywords: | Energiewende, Deutschland, Nordrhein-Westfalen, Kohleausstieg, politische Ungleichheit, Synergien, politische Inkohärenzen |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:idospb:283119&r=cis |
| By: | Berensmann, Kathrin; Laudage Teles, Sabine; Sommer, Christoph; Walle, Yabibal M. |
| Abstract: | Development finance is at a turning point, as the macroeconomic environment has changed profoundly and the financing gap for low- and middle-income countries has widened. The events that led to this new situation are the multiple crises that the global economy is facing, such as the climate crisis, the COVID-19 crisis and the war in Ukraine. As a result, interest rates have risen sharply over the past year and are not expected to decline anytime soon. High interest rates further restrict low- and middle-income countries' access to international financial markets by making borrowing more expensive. At the same time, debt levels in several countries are rising to levels that are almost impossible to repay. Poorer countries find themselves in a trap where financing the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) becomes a distant goal for them. To 'get back on track' in financing the 2030 Agenda and the SDGs, a number of reform proposals have been put forward within several processes and initiatives, including the Financing for Development (FfD) process, the Bridgetown Initiative and the Macron-led Paris Summit. Despite being initiated by different actors, these proposals all highlight the importance of reforming the international financial architecture in view of the changed macroeconomic environment. The Hamburg Sustainability Conference in June 2024, the United Nation's Summit of the Future in 2024 and the next FfD Conference in 2025 should be used to strengthen and accelerate ongoing reform processes and come up with new, innovative and bold proposals to reshape development finance in these challenging times. Against the background of the multiple crises and its effects, our key recommendations for the reform of development finance are as follows. First, new initiatives and frameworks are needed to provide urgent debt relief and restructuring for highly indebted countries. The international community should promote a reformed G20 Common Framework for debt restructuring and discuss a green Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC)-like initiative for debt relief for low-income countries as a solution on a case-by-case basis, integrating short-term shock remedies with long-term sustainable development finance. Debt and climate risks should be addressed simultaneously by better incorporating climate risks in debt sustainability analyses conducted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank, and by considering the volume of investments in climate adaptation because these investments reduce the risks associated with climate change. Second, tax revenues - the most important source of development finance - need to increase and countries need to expand their fiscal space by reforming their tax administrations and policies. Building fiscal buffers can help countries to become more resilient to future crises. In the short run, eliminating unnecessary tax expenditures such as fossil fuel subsidies is the lowest-hanging fruit to increase tax revenues, while in the long run, more green fiscal reforms (e.g. carbon pricing and environmental taxes) are needed, as well as more effective international tax cooperation. In addition, donor funds should be increased to provide technical assistance and capacity-building to tax and customs administrations.Third, the Development Assistance Committee member countries should at least halve the gap between their current contributions and the official development assistance (ODA) contribution target of 0.7 per cent of gross national income by 2026, and reach the full attainment of the target by 2030. In particular, donors need to provide ODA in addition to (not as a substitute for) climate finance and channel more ODA to the poorest countries. In this regard, donors should report climate and development finance separately to mitigate the risk of over-reporting. Fourth, we recall the need to reform multilateral development banks (MDBs). The multiple crises have made the role of MDBs in closing the development financing gap even more important than before. As attracting private capital is becoming more difficult for low- and middle-income countries, MDBs should harness their proven ability to leverage private finance for financing the SDGs. MDBs should substantially increase their lending capacity, for example by lowering their equity to loan thresholds and raising additional capital from shareholders or private investors. MDBs should be reformed to include in their vision the provision of global public goods, such as tackling the climate crisis and preparing for pandemics. Development banks and private creditors should include clauses on natural disasters and pandemics in their financing instruments. |
| Keywords: | Development financing and public finance, international financial system |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:diedps:283127&r=cis |
| By: | Lee, Warren TK |
| Abstract: | Food systems have a great potential to fulfill food security and nutrition for providing year-round healthy and affordable diets for all. Currently, however, our food systems have not yet delivered their full potential, leaving billions of people food insecure and unable to afford healthy diets; millions of children are stunted and wasted; and there is rising prevalence of obesity and non-communicable diseases. Hence, food systems in many parts of the world fail to deliver their missions! In the Asia-Pacific, the situation is exacerbated by population growth, urbanisation, changing consumption patterns, COVID-19, and the Ukraine war, and it is further complicated by climate change leading to unhealthy diets, poor nutrition and health, as well as unsustainable livelihoods and environment. Climate affects agri-food production which, however, is also a contributor to climate change. One-third of GHG emissions are generated from food systems. Climate change influences the entire food systems: poor soil fertility and reduced crop yield, biodiversity loss, pest diseases, reduced density and bioavailability of nutrients in foods, etc. Thus, climate change may increase malnutrition and health risks, deteriorate livelihoods and unsustainable environment. Sustainable and resilient food systems transformation coupled with nature-positive solutions, including climate-smart agriculture aligned with contextual ecosystem function, biodiversity and environmental conservation are warranted to ensure healthier diets and optimal health, and to mitigate and adapt the impact of climatic and food system interactions on diet, health and environment. Food systems transformation can harness the power of food systems to benefit humanity and the earth. |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, Crop Production/Industries, Environmental Economics and Policy, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:cfcp23:339625&r=cis |
| By: | Aydin, Yasar |
| Abstract: | Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoægan began his third term in May 2023 with the appointment of Mehmet ðSimðsek as finance minister and the business executive Hafize Gaye Erkan as governor of the central bank. Both are widely acknowledged and experienced proponents of orthodox economics. The effect of their appointment was to return Ankara to an orthodox economic course. However, the shift in monetary policy was not backed up by structural reforms and the recovery has been meagre. Inflation remains rampant and the currency continues to fall; unresolved economic challenges create economic and political instability and could weaken the country's security - in particular in light of Russia's ambitions to expand its influence in the region. The consequences for the EU would be enormous. Turkey needs economic and security cooperation with Europe to secure stability without legitimising the regime's autocratic course.the dilemma between geopolitics and integration policy, the European Commission is currently developing ideas about how new members can be integrated step by step. |
| Keywords: | Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdoægan, Mehmet ðSimðsek (finance minister), Hafize Gaye Erkan (governor of the central bank), monetary policy, inflation, Russia’, s ambitions, EU, economic and security cooperation, NATO |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:283051&r=cis |
| By: | Steinbach, Sandro; Yildirim, Yasin |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, Agricultural Finance, International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iats23:339540&r=cis |