nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2024‒03‒04
eleven papers chosen by

  1. On the protective effects of European sustainable stocks during the Russian invasion of Ukraine By Kick, Andreas; Rottmann, Horst
  2. Analyzing the Impacts of Trade Sanctions on Fertilizer Trade Amidst the Russia-Ukraine War: A Dynamic Demand Approach By Hossen, Deluair; Muhammad, Andrew; Steinbach, Sandro
  3. Global Economic Effects of War-Induced Agricultural Export Declines from Ukraine By Countryman, Amanda M.; Litvinov, Valentyn; Kolodiazhnyi, Ivan; Bogonos, Mariia; Nivievskyi, Oleg
  4. Russia-Ukraine War-Led Supply Disruption of Staple Foods in the Net Food Importing Countries By Ahn, Soojung; Steinbach, Sandro
  5. Consequences of the Russian-Ukraine War for the Wheat Industry By Devadoss, Stephen; Ridley, Wililam
  6. Czech Republic: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Czech Republic By International Monetary Fund
  7. Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine: How Do Partial Equilibrium Bilateral Trade Projections Compare to Realized Market Outcomes? By Grant, Jason; Legrand, Nicolas; Bolub, Alla; Arita, Shawn; Sydow, Sharon
  8. Frequency Volatility Connectedness and Portfolio Hedging of U.S. Energy Commodities By Evžen Kočenda; Michala Moravcová; Evžen Kocenda
  9. Dimension fiscale de l’intégration économique : Peut l’Union Européenne s’ajouter l’union fiscale à l’union monétaire ? By Andrei, Liviu Catalin; Andrei, Dalina Maria
  10. Informational Boundaries of the State By Thiemo Fetzer; Callum Shaw; Jacob Edenhofer
  11. The role of the New Development Bank on Economic growth and Development in the BRICS states By Sithole, Mixo Sweetness; Hlongwane, Nyiko Worship

  1. By: Kick, Andreas; Rottmann, Horst
    Abstract: Sustainable investments remain popular, attracting investors and researchers alike. Especially the tail-risk properties seem to differ between sustainable stocks and common stocks. Empirically, this can be observed in particular during extreme events. On February 24, 2022 Russian forces invaded Ukraine, thereby marking the beginning of a major historical event. Using standard event study methodology, we analyze if and how Refinitiv's environmental, social, and governance (ESG) ratings, as well as carbon dioxide (CO2) intensity, influence cumulative abnormal returns during different event windows. We find that the abnormal returns of companies with high ecological scores exhibit a protective effect in the pre- and post-event windows. However, this effect did not materialize in all observed event windows. Therefore, our results do not fully support the hypothesis of an 'ESG hedge' against such extreme events.
    Keywords: abnormal returns, war, Ukraine, ESG, Russia
    JEL: G11 G14 M14
    Date: 2024
  2. By: Hossen, Deluair; Muhammad, Andrew; Steinbach, Sandro
    Keywords: Agribusiness, Crop Production/Industries, Farm Management, International Relations/Trade
    Date: 2023–12
  3. By: Countryman, Amanda M.; Litvinov, Valentyn; Kolodiazhnyi, Ivan; Bogonos, Mariia; Nivievskyi, Oleg
    Keywords: Agribusiness, Farm Management, Financial Economics, International Relations/Trade
    Date: 2023–12
  4. By: Ahn, Soojung; Steinbach, Sandro
    Keywords: Agribusiness, Agricultural Finance, International Relations/Trade
    Date: 2022–12
  5. By: Devadoss, Stephen; Ridley, Wililam
    Keywords: Agribusiness, Agricultural Finance, International Relations/Trade
    Date: 2022–12
  6. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: Growth slowed considerably following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, reflecting disruptions in global value chains, significant increases in energy and commodity prices, an erosion in real wages, and a necessary tightening in monetary policy. Growth is expected to pick up in 2024, led by consumption and fixed investment—as inflation fades and real income recovers—supported by net exports. Nevertheless, over the medium term, GDP is not expected to reach the levels consistent with its pre-pandemic trend. Inflation peaked in 2022 and is projected to meet its target by early 2025. Risks are tilted to the downside for activity and to the upside for inflation.
    Date: 2024–01–30
  7. By: Grant, Jason; Legrand, Nicolas; Bolub, Alla; Arita, Shawn; Sydow, Sharon
    Keywords: Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Agricultural Finance, International Relations/Trade
    Date: 2023–12
  8. By: Evžen Kočenda; Michala Moravcová; Evžen Kocenda
    Abstract: We analyze (frequency) connectedness and portfolio hedging among U.S. energy commodities from 1997 to 2023. We show that the total connectedness increased over time, likely due to the increasing financialization of energy commodities. It fluctuates with respect to (i) different investment horizons and (ii) different periods of distress. The early stage of the Russia-Ukraine war is associated with the highest systemic risk, followed by the Covid-19 pandemic and global financial crisis (GFC). In the frequency domain, the results imply that investors perceive the greatest risk at longer investment horizons, particularly during the three major distress periods. We also show that despite it is difficult and more costly to diversify an energy portfolio during distress periods, adding natural gas seems to bring non-marginal diversification benefits.
    Keywords: connectedness, volatility spillovers, frequency decomposition, portfolio weights and hedge ratios, energy commodities, distress
    JEL: C58 F65 G15 Q34 Q41
    Date: 2024
  9. By: Andrei, Liviu Catalin; Andrei, Dalina Maria
    Abstract: Béla Balassa, the most significant theorist of the economic integration, dares to argue that this is just one for all multi-country areas, e.g. despite economic growth or development that might be different for different countries. Then, the diversity in terms of integration would be the same as the integration stages. In Europe and Latin America, where integration initiatives really worked, there is just the EU also accepting to aim the integration up to its final Balassa’s stage. They had got the monetary integration (union) and this even as un unprecedented union around a single currency used by several countries – not even Balassa, this time, thought about this, despite that the theorist had a few words about aspects like currency, taxation, politic integration and even the federal State. Now things got also different: around the year 2000 there was the “Happy new Euro!” with its fire-works feast, but the aftermath of these was coming to be different, i.e. with crises like “Lehman-Brothers”, “Brexit”, the pandemic and not only, see a European Constitution project rejected by the French, Danish and Dutch voters, while the Union’s ambitions went to its enlargement besides, and lastly there is the war in Ukraine, with its consequences of all kind. So, what about the integration process? All agree it is not complete, but just singular voices do warn about that staying in the present monetary union stage would be not viable and even dangerous for all, here including for the integration started many decades ago – i.e. the fiscal union is supposed to accompany the monetary one, as the rule that ever was for all monetary unions.
    Keywords: politique monétaire ; les banques centrales ; politique fiscale ; théorie monétaire moderne ; intégration économique et théorie sur.
    JEL: E02 E52 E58 E62 F15
    Date: 2024–02–08
  10. By: Thiemo Fetzer; Callum Shaw; Jacob Edenhofer
    Abstract: Formal conceptions of state capacity have mostly focused on indirect measures of state capacity – by, for instance, using the state’s fiscal or extractive capacity as a proxy for its overall capacity. Yet, this input or extractive view of state capacity falls short, especially since cross-country empirical evidence suggests that similar levels of fiscal capacity, measured by tax revenues as a percentage of GDP, can produce starkly different outputs – both in classic economic terms and in broader terms that citizens would recognize as desirable outcomes, including quality of life, health, security, equality of opportunity, and intergenerational mobility. This paper argues that a central step towards addressing these shortcomings of the conventional view is to account for a crucial and largely ignored boundary of the state or dimension of state capacity: its capacity to gather, process, and deploy information in its conduct of fiscal policy. Specifically, we study how the presence or lack of such informational capacity constrains governments in responding to crises, such as the recent energy price shock. Our framework provides the analytical toolkit to examine how the informational boundary of the state shapes the incentives for policymakers to resort to untargeted and/or distortionary policy instruments, as opposed to targeted and non-distortionary ones, in responding to crises. The policy response to the energy crisis following the invasion of Ukraine provides the empirical context upon which we bring this theoretical framework to bear on data, though the latter can be straightforwardly extended to other recent crises.
    Keywords: state capacity, economic development, carbon taxation, political economy, pork-barrel politics
    JEL: H11 O43 D63 D73 Q48 P16 C21 C55
    Date: 2024
  11. By: Sithole, Mixo Sweetness; Hlongwane, Nyiko Worship
    Abstract: The purpose of this study is to analyse how the BRICS countries' New Development Bank (NDB) promotes economic growth and development. This study aims to evaluate the influence of the NDB on crucial measures of economic growth and development in the BRICS nations by a thorough review of the bank's operations, financing mechanisms, and project portfolios. The study utilized the panel data from 1997-2022 using variables such as economic growth, employment, and trade. The study deployed a PMG estimator and Granger causality model. The results revealed positive bidirectional statistically significant relationship between broad money and economic growth in BRICS. The study recommended that NDB should promote growth of broad money as it boosts economic growth.
    Keywords: New Development Bank, Economic growth, BRICS, Pooled Mean Group estimator, Granger causality.
    JEL: C0 C3
    Date: 2023–07–07

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