nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2024‒02‒26
24 papers chosen by

  1. The Effect of Conflict on Ukrainian Refugees’ Return and Integration By Joop Adema; Cevat Giray Aksoy; Yvonne Giesing; Panu Poutvaara
  2. The Analysis of Life Satisfaction Predictors Among Ukrainian Students During Times of Conflict By Tamilina, Larysa
  3. Impacts of Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine on U.S. Agriculture By Westhoff, Patrick; Whistance, Jarrett; Cooper, Joseph; Meyer, Seth
  4. The War in Ukraine Disrupts Agricultural Value Chains, but Trade Policy Measures Can Mitigate the Impacts By Chepeliev, Maksym; Maliszewska, Maryla; Filipa, Maria; Pereira, Seara e
  5. A Perfect or Persistent Storm for Global Agricultural Markets? High Energy Prices and the War in Ukraine By Elleby, Christian; Dominguez, Ignacio Pérez; Genovese, Giampiero; Thompson, Wyatt; Adenäuer, Marcel; Gay, Hubertus
  6. Impacts of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict on Global Agricultural Commodity Prices, Trade, and Cropland Reallocation By He, Xi; Carriquiry, Miguel; Elobeid, Amani; Hayes, Dermot; Zhang, Wendong
  7. Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine: Initial Impacts of the War on Agricultural Trade By Grant, Jason; Arita, Shawn; Xie, Chaoping; Sydow, Sharon
  8. Russian-Ukraine Conflict and the Global Food Grain Price Analysis By Wilson, William; Lakkakula, Prithviraj; Bullock, David
  9. Transmission to a low-carbon economy and its implications for financial stability in Russia By Anna Burova; Elena Deryugina; Nadezhda Ivanova; Maxim Morozov; Natalia Turdyeva
  10. The Effect of US Monetary Policy on the Activities of Russian Banks in the Low Interest Rate Environment By Nadezhda Ivanova; Ekaterina Petreneva; Konstantin Styrin; Yulia Ushakova
  11. Reconstructing the publication history of Russia’s GDP and its components By Dmitrii Gornostaev; Natalia Makhankova; Petr Milyutin; Alexey Ponomarenko; Sergey Seleznev
  12. Visible prices and their influence on inflation expectations of Russian households By Vadim Grishchenko; Diana Gasanova; Egor Fomin; Grigory Korenyak
  13. Does CPI disaggregation improve inflation forecast accuracy? By Viacheslav Kramkov
  14. How would the war and the pandemic affect the stock and cryptocurrency cross-market linkages? By Georgios Bampinas; Theodore Panagiotidis
  15. Konjunkturprognose Deutschland: Frühjahr 2023 By Berlemann, Michael; Hinze, Jörg
  16. The Historical Origins of Pro-Democratic Attitudes in Ukraine By Tamilina, Larysa
  17. Decomposition of Corporate Credit Growth Using Granular Data By Anna Burova; Danila Karpov; Denis Koshelev
  18. Human capital in the regions of the Russian Empire and inequality in land distribution at the turn of the 20th century By Popov, Vladimir; Konchakov, Roman; Didenko, Dmitry
  19. Multiple crises in mind, biodiversity out of sight? Insights from a behavioral study in Germany By Gruener, Sven; Soliev, Ilkhom; Pirscher, Frauke
  20. The Gambia: 2023 Article IV Consultation and Request for an Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for The Gambia By International Monetary Fund
  21. Restoring Ukraine: Parallels Between Visegrad Group and East Germany in the 90s By Valentyna Puzikova
  22. Inequality and monetary policy: THRANK model By Pavel Vikharev; Anna Novak; Andrei Shulgin
  23. "Major transformations in supply chain management: Is the French higher education system deficient in its training offer?" By François Fulconis; Gilles Paché
  24. Cyclical systemic risk and banks’ vulnerability By Alona Shmygel; Steven Ongena

  1. By: Joop Adema; Cevat Giray Aksoy; Yvonne Giesing; Panu Poutvaara
    Abstract: During 2022, about eight million Ukrainians were displaced from Ukraine due to the Russian invasion. Whether these individuals will return holds great significance for Ukraine’s reconstruction and is pivotal in shaping integration strategies in host countries. We used Facebook ads to recruit a panel of Ukrainian refugees in Europe, starting in June 2022. Six waves carried out in 2022 and 2023 allow us to examine the causal impact of local conflict intensity on refugees’ return intentions and integration. We find that less than 10% of Ukrainian refugees express a desire to permanently settle abroad. While the duration of time spent abroad leads to a higher proportion of refugees being employed, it does not diminish their intentions to return. Conflict intensity in one’s home municipality decreases current return intentions, but it has only a small impact on plans to return once safety is restored.
    Keywords: conflict, Ukraine, migration, refugees, return migration
    JEL: D74 F22 J24
    Date: 2023
  2. By: Tamilina, Larysa
    Abstract: Ukraine has recently witnessed relatively diminished levels of life satisfaction within its population often explained by poverty and large income inequalities in the country. The war with Russia has further exacerbated these challenges, significantly impacting the overall subjective well-being of Ukrainians. This study examines life satisfaction of students at Kyiv universities, drawing upon a unique survey conducted in November 2023. Based on the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression, the analysis shows that students' contentment with life in war times is influenced by their study formats and perceived isolation levels. Furthermore, the findings indicate that universities can mitigate the adverse impact of war by providing psychological support to their students and adopting mixed or offline forms of study. Contrary to the expectations, the results suggest a strong resilience among Ukrainian students to war conditions. Notably, there is no discernible decrease in overall contentment with life that could be attributed to exposure to war-related news, internalization of such news leading to preoccupation with thoughts of war, or the development of sleep-related issues.
    Keywords: Life satisfaction, Subjective well-being, Conflicts, Ukraine
    JEL: I12 I30 I31
    Date: 2024–01–07
  3. By: Westhoff, Patrick; Whistance, Jarrett; Cooper, Joseph; Meyer, Seth
    Keywords: Agribusiness, Agricultural Finance, International Relations/Trade
    Date: 2022–12
  4. By: Chepeliev, Maksym; Maliszewska, Maryla; Filipa, Maria; Pereira, Seara e
    Keywords: Agribusiness, Agricultural Finance, International Relations/Trade
    Date: 2022–12
  5. By: Elleby, Christian; Dominguez, Ignacio Pérez; Genovese, Giampiero; Thompson, Wyatt; Adenäuer, Marcel; Gay, Hubertus
    Keywords: Agribusiness, Agricultural Finance, International Relations/Trade
    Date: 2022–12
  6. By: He, Xi; Carriquiry, Miguel; Elobeid, Amani; Hayes, Dermot; Zhang, Wendong
    Keywords: Agribusiness, Agricultural Finance, International Relations/Trade
    Date: 2022–12
  7. By: Grant, Jason; Arita, Shawn; Xie, Chaoping; Sydow, Sharon
    Keywords: Agribusiness, Agricultural Finance, International Relations/Trade
    Date: 2022–12
  8. By: Wilson, William; Lakkakula, Prithviraj; Bullock, David
    Keywords: Agribusiness, Agricultural Finance, International Relations/Trade
    Date: 2022–12
  9. By: Anna Burova (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation); Elena Deryugina (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation); Nadezhda Ivanova (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation); Maxim Morozov (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation); Natalia Turdyeva (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation)
    Abstract: Energy transition and climate policies associated with it may become one of the major challenges for the Russian economy. We present an approach to assessing consequences of climate policy for Russia and evaluating related transition risks for the country’s financial system. This approach relies on a CGE model for the Russian economy and a financial model based on firm-level data. We show that both international and domestic climate policies affect the financial stability of the Russian Federation. The effects of international climate actions summarised in the NGFS Net Zero 2050 scenario are bigger than the effects of the introduction of a domestic emission trading system with a reduction goal of the Intensive scenario of the Russian state strategy of low-carbon development.
    Keywords: Russia, climate policy, energy transition, transition risk, financial stability, CGE
    JEL: C68 E51 E62 G10 G21 Q52 Q54 Q58
    Date: 2023–02
  10. By: Nadezhda Ivanova (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation); Ekaterina Petreneva (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation); Konstantin Styrin (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation); Yulia Ushakova (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation)
    Abstract: This paper studies the cross-border transmission of US monetary policy to Russia in 2000-2019 via its effect on activities of Russian banks in the low interest rate environment in comparison with normal times. Specifically, we investigate dynamic responses of lending, funding, and risk taking. The main finding is that, in normal times, the dynamic responses of dependent variables of interest are consistent with the prevalence of the international lending channel whereas in the low rate environment the patterns are different for different indicators: in some instances the dynamic effect of interest is attenuated compared with normal times, in others, it is reinforced.
    Keywords: monetary policy, international spillovers, cross-border transmission, low interest rates
    JEL: E52 F34 G21
    Date: 2023–10
  11. By: Dmitrii Gornostaev (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation); Natalia Makhankova (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation); Petr Milyutin (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation); Alexey Ponomarenko (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation); Sergey Seleznev (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation)
    Abstract: This paper presents a set of vintage data on Russian GDP and its components by the expenditure and production approaches. The dataset consists of revisions of nominal and real quarterly data for the period from December 2005 to the present. In addition to such data, the paper describes some properties of real and nominal GDP indicator revisions and its expenditure components, as well as the methodology for collecting historical indicators using the Wayback Machine, which enables data collection even in the absence of a saved history of their releases.
    Keywords: GDP, data vintages, data revisions, Russia.
    JEL: C82 E01 E2
    Date: 2024–01
  12. By: Vadim Grishchenko (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation); Diana Gasanova (Higher School of Economics, Russian Federation); Egor Fomin (Higher School of Economics, Russian Federation); Grigory Korenyak (Moscow State University, Russian Federation)
    Abstract: A multitude of recent research shows that the inflation expectations of households are far from rational. In making inflation forecasts, people tend to focus on the prices of particular goods and services, which they can observe every day – ‘visible prices’. In this paper, we propose a new method for the identification of such items. Our novel ‘brute force’ algorithm automatically sorts through the full array of prices of goods and services given by Rosstat and constructs consumer baskets. It then selects the best baskets based on their ability to forecast the inflation expectations of Russian households from the FOM Survey. In the end, we get a decomposition of various met-rics of inflation expectations for visible prices which also demonstrates good forecasting perfor-mance (as compared to the AR(1) process as a benchmark). To ensure robustness, we use an alter-native method (optimisation with regularisation) and a variety of metrics of inflation expectations. As a result, we get lists of ‘robust visible items’ which include not only foodstuffs but mainly durable goods and services. Surprisingly enough, oil and petrol, which are typically labelled ‘vis-ible goods’ in research, do not fall into this category for Russia.
    Keywords: inflation expectations, households, visible prices, visible items, Rosstat, FOM Survey
    JEL: C43 C82 E31 E37
    Date: 2023–10
  13. By: Viacheslav Kramkov (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation)
    Abstract: If the consumer price index (CPI), one of the main indicators of inflation, consists of several components, would it be more accurate to forecast them separately? International experience shows that the aggregate of individual forecasts is often more accurate than the forecast of the aggregated index. In this paper, we explore this issue for Russia and test whether the quality of inflation forecasts can be improved by the CPI individual components forecasting. Using the panel data of Russian regions for the period from 2010 to 2021 we partially confirm the usefulness of a disaggregated approach. Individual modelling of the short-term price dynamics of individual commodity groups is ahead in terms of accuracy of the overall inflation model, including standard benchmark models, but only under certain conditions. First, it is necessary to include the factors of trend inflation in the models, which helps to separate the trend inflation acceleration/deceleration from short-term idiosyncratic fluctuations. Secondly, the models should have the property of inflation convergence to its long-term level, determined by the Bank of Russia's goal. Under these conditions, the disaggregated approach gives a more accurate forecast on short horizons than the aggregated one and a forecast of comparable to non-structural models’ accuracy on longer ones. Additionally, good predictive properties of the “anchored” forecast model were established (the “anchored” forecast is equal to the target inflation rate). The accuracy of this forecast turns out to be higher than the accuracy of standard models and does not deteriorate with an increase in the forecast horizon. This allows us to recommend this model as a simple non-structural benchmark for measuring the quality of inflation forecast models in Russia.
    Keywords: price dynamics of CPI components, forecasting, relative prices, trend inflation, idiosyncratic shocks, comparison of forecasting models in panel data
    JEL: E31 E37
    Date: 2023–03
  14. By: Georgios Bampinas (Department of Economics and Regional Development, Panteion University of Social and Political Sciences, Greece); Theodore Panagiotidis (Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, Greece)
    Abstract: This paper studies the cross-market linkages between six international stock markets and the two major cryptocurrency markets during the Covid-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. By employing the local (partial) Gaussian correlation approach, we find that during the Covid-19 pandemic period, both cryptocurrency markets possess limited diversification and safe haven properties, which further diminish during the war. Bootstrap tests for contagion suggest that during the Covid-19 pandemic, the East Asian markets lead the transmission of contagion towards the two cryptocurrency markets. During the Russian invasion, the US stock market emerges as the principal transmitter of contagion. Uncovering the role of pandemic (Infectious Disease EMV Index) and geopolitical risk (GPR index) induced uncertainties, we find that under conditions of high uncertainty and falling prices, the dependency between the US and UK stock markets with both cryptocurrency markets increases considerably. The latter is more profound during the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Our findings are useful for investors in their search for understanding the differences in asymmetric connectedness between markets during extreme events.
    Keywords: Bitcoin, Ethereum, cryptocurrency, stock market, tail dependence, local Gaussian partial correlation, pandemic uncertainty, geopolitical risk uncertainty
    JEL: F31 F37 O16 Q40 G11 G12
    Date: 2024–01
  15. By: Berlemann, Michael; Hinze, Jörg
    Abstract: Das Hamburgische WeltWirtschaftsInstitut (HWWI) hat seine Prognose der wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung in Deutschland aktualisiert. Die deutsche Wirtschaft ist bislang besser durch die Krisen - aktuell insbesondere Ukrainekrieg und Inflation - gekommen als befürchtet werden musste. Zwar ist die deutsche Wirtschaft nach noch leichtem Wachstum bis zum Herbst 2022 im Winterhalbjahr in eine Rezession geraten, doch dürfte diese nur mäßig ausfallen und ab Frühsommer ist - vorausgesetzt keine Verschärfung der geopolitischen Probleme - mit einer moderaten Erholung zu rechnen. Dann ergäbe sich für 2023 im Jahresdurchschnitt ein Nullwachstum, 2024 könnte die Wirtschaft mit knapp 2% wieder merklich wachsen. Der Anstieg der Verbraucherpreise ist mit fast 9% noch hoch, bereits wieder deutlich gesunkene Energie- und andere Rohstoffpreise lassen aber einen baldigen, deutlichen Rückgang erwarten. Bis Ende dieses Jahres könnte die Inflationsrate unter 4% sinken, bis Ende 2024 sich wieder der 2-Prozent-Stabilitätsmarke annähern. Dabei ist wichtig, dass nicht übermäßige Lohnabschlüsse eine Kosten-Preis-Spirale auslösen. Dann könnte auch die Geldpolitik ihren Restriktionskurs beenden.
    Abstract: The Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI) has updated its forecast for economic development in Germany. So far, the German economy has weathered the crises - currently the war in Ukraine and inflation in particular - better than feared. Although the German economy has slipped into a recession in the winter half-year following slight growth until the fall of 2022, this is only likely to be moderate and a moderate recovery can be expected from early summer - provided the geopolitical problems do not worsen. This would result in zero growth on an annual average for 2023, while the economy could grow noticeably again in 2024 at just under 2%. The rise in consumer prices is still high at almost 9%, but energy and other commodity prices, which have already fallen significantly, suggest that they will soon fall considerably. The inflation rate could fall below 4% by the end of this year and approach the 2% stability mark again by the end of 2024. It is important that excessive wage settlements do not trigger a cost-price spiral. Monetary policy could then also end its restrictive course.
    Date: 2023
  16. By: Tamilina, Larysa
    Abstract: This article examines how Ukraine's historical experiences of occupation and territorial fragmentation could lead to the emergence of a democratic political culture within its population. Utilizing individual-level psychological theories, I illustrate that extended periods of occupation cultivated pro-democratic values among Ukrainians, by nurturing sentiments of resistance and autonomy. Additionally, the historical presence of territorial fragmentation contributed to the promotion of diverse perspectives, stimulating social dialogue and encouraging citizens to pursue increased participation in the political sphere. This historical context influenced the shaping of democratic attitudes among Ukrainians.
    Keywords: History of occupation, territorial fragmentation, the emergence of democracy, Ukraine.
    JEL: B0 N00 P5
    Date: 2024–01–15
  17. By: Anna Burova (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation); Danila Karpov (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation); Denis Koshelev (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation)
    Abstract: Applying a new method of decomposition of corporate credit growth, we estimated what part of credit expansion in Russia in 2018–2021 was accounted for by companies that had experience in credit borrowing in the past, and what part was due to newcomers to the corporate bank loan market. In absolute terms, the share of the loan portfolio attributable to companies that are new to the credit market (the extensive component of growth) is small. A fact that is not obvious at first glance, which we confirm in the course of the study, is that their contribution to fluctuations in the growth rates of credit aggregates, on the contrary, is large. The fact is that companies with existing credit relationships (the intensive component of growth) borrow and repay comparable amounts. Moreover, both the same borrower and different borrowing companies can borrow and repay - we draw a conclusion about their net activity. What unites them and allows us to consider such borrowers on a net basis is the presence of bank loans in the past (based on this fact, we can talk about such a set of borrowers as an intensive component of the growth of corporate bank loans). Thus, the net contribution of the intensive component to credit expansion is small. During the acute phase of the pandemic (from June 2020 to May 2021), the role of lending on preferential terms increased noticeably and then decreased. For companies new to the lending market from affected industries (according to the list of the Russian Government), this growth was especially noticeable. This corresponds with other results: the massive inflow of borrowers at the beginning of the pandemic was sporadic and tightly linked to the state support measures. In this regard, the lower default rates of loans issued with the start of state support programs (between June and September 2020) probably do not imply better quality of borrowers, but reflect the features of the subsidised loans. Within the framework of already existing credit relations (the intensive component of growth), the contribution of preferential lending to the growth of corporate credit was relatively stable until July 2021, after which the contribution of the non-preferential component began to grow rapidly. An increase in the share of inactive borrowers, i.e., those who have open but unused credit lines starting from April 2021. Potentially, this type of borrowers may quickly increase their borrowings via open credit lines under adverse economic conditions. Thus, entail additional risks to banks. In this regard, we suggest the close monitoring of open and used credit lines. However, actual utilisation of credit lines could be bounded by terms of credit agreement, revaluation of collateral, and could led to smaller volumes of funds available during adverse economic conditions.
    Keywords: corporate debt, loan portfolio, state support measures, credit lines, credit aggregates
    JEL: E44 F34 G28 G31 G32 G38
    Date: 2023–12
  18. By: Popov, Vladimir; Konchakov, Roman; Didenko, Dmitry
    Abstract: This paper is an empirical test of what is called a unified theory of inequality and growth (Galor and Zeira, 1988, 1993; Galor and Moav, 2004; Galor, 2012) – in early stages of industrialization inequality enhanced the process of development by channeling resources towards individuals whose marginal propensity to save is higher, thus enhancing physical and human capital accumulation. In later stages of development, however, equality has stimulated human capital formation and growth and unequal distribution of income became a hurdle for economic development. A number of studies have found that human capital is higher and more evenly distributed in countries with lower income and wealth inequalities. In particular, Baten and Hippe (2018) argued that inequality in the distribution of land ownership in Europe (including Russia) in the 19th century had a negative impact on human capital formation (as measured by numeracy rate) as landowners did not have incentives to promote educational institutions or were not willing to pay the necessary taxes. In contrast, we find that in the regions of Russian Empire in 1897 uneven distribution of land was associated with higher levels of human capital (as measured by the average years of schooling and literacy rate), whereas the distribution of the human capital across the regional population (as measured by literacy and the proportions of inhabitants with higher, secondary and primary education) was more even. The difference in the results is caused by the different measurements of land inequality; our result is totally consistent with the unified theory of the inequality and growth.
    Keywords: educational attainment, school enrollment, inequality, land distribution, growth.
    JEL: D63 I23 J24 N93 R11
    Date: 2024–01–14
  19. By: Gruener, Sven; Soliev, Ilkhom; Pirscher, Frauke
    Abstract: Biodiversity loss is one of the key challenges of our time. This paper explores how negative information due to other societal challenges influences attention toward biodiversity loss. With the help of an information provision experiment, we remind experimental participants recruited from the general population of Germany of Covid-19 and the war in Ukraine. We find less priority given to biodiversity loss after being reminded of these societal crises. However, this effect is both low in magnitude and not statistically significant at any conventional level. In contrast, personal importance of biodiversity to individuals is a much stronger behavioral predictor.
    Date: 2024–01–30
  20. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: The Gambia is consolidating its democratic and economic transformation. It recently organized peaceful and transparent presidential, parliamentary, and local elections. The previous 2020-23 ECF arrangement accompanied the country’s reforms and helped alleviate the repercussions of the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s war in Ukraine. The end of the electoral cycle offers a window of opportunity for the next two to three years to further strengthen economic reforms and promote inclusive growth.
    Date: 2024–01–18
  21. By: Valentyna Puzikova
    Abstract: Ukraine's post-conflict economy needs new opportunities to grow because it has not been able to rebuild itself economically. As we live in an era of globalization, it is crucial that national economies - especially Ukraine's - meet the demands of the international community. With its advantageous geo-economic position between the East and the West, its geographic centre within Europe, and its abundance of natural resources, Ukraine has every opportunity to become a truly vital component of the global economy. These days, the subject of Ukraine comes up frequently in conversations with a wide variety of people. Unfortunately, there isn’t a consensus on a single strategy for solving the goal-setting conundrum and a precise algorithm for achieving that goal. To date, there isn’t the single national recovery plan with legal status that other recovery actors can use as a tactical weapon. To develop a model of Ukraine's post-war economic recovery, to define the country's recovery goal, and to provide an answer to the question of how to get there, in this essay I have tried to examine the experience of other countries that have recovered economically from crises. The focus is on the study of the Visegrad Group and East Germany during the 1990s. I have attempted to organize the major inluences and theories that might be relevant to the study of Ukraine's restoration.
    Keywords: Visegrad Group, East Germany in the 90s, economic crisis, economic development, analysis of Ukraine's Recovery Plans, models of post-crisis recovery
    JEL: F21 F50 F60
    Date: 2024–02
  22. By: Pavel Vikharev (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation); Anna Novak (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation); Andrei Shulgin (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation)
    Abstract: The paper explores the mutual influence of inequality and monetary policy. The model introduces household heterogeneity in terms of access to the financial market and intertemporal preferences. The parameters are calibrated and estimated based on both Russia's microdata (including RLMS-HSE and HBS) and macro statistics. We have shown that the introduction of households with no access to the financial market has only a slight impact on the transmission of a monetary policy shock, while its secondary effects help amplify the action of most structural shocks. The behavior of wealthy hand-to-mouth households amplifies the response of macroeconomic variables to the monetary policy shock but has a slight impact on these variables' responses to most of the other structural shocks. We have identified non-structural inequality shocks at the bottom and the top of the Lorenz curve. As a result, we have found that the mutual influence of inequality and monetary policy is limited. The interest rate immediate response to changes in the Gini consumption index equals 0.1 for inequality shocks and 10 for a monetary policy shock. We have demonstrated that the shocks at the top of the Lorenz curve cause a more persistent response from the economy, whereas the shock at the bottom of the Lorenz curve. On first approximation, only one integral inequality indicator can be used to study the role of inequality in a business cycle. The relative consumption dynamics for specified household groups is not a conclusive indicator of either pro- or disinflationary policy, but it provides additional data to help identify structural shocks.
    Keywords: monetary policy, inequality, THRANK, inequality shock, hand-to-mouth, Russia, Lorenz curve, household heterogeneity, Wealthy HtM
    JEL: E21 E44 E52 E58
    Date: 2023–07
  23. By: François Fulconis (AU - Avignon Université, •JPEG - Laboratoire des sciences Juridiques, Politique, Economiques et de Gestion - AU - Avignon Université); Gilles Paché (CERGAM - Centre d'Études et de Recherche en Gestion d'Aix-Marseille - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - UTLN - Université de Toulon, AMU - Aix Marseille Université)
    Abstract: Following two major external shocks (the Covid-19 health crisis and the Russian-Ukrainian geopolitical crisis), virulent debates have been launched in the community of management practitioners and researchers on the future of Western economic systems. One of the most recurrent themes of confrontation concerns the appropriateness of relocating industrial activities, after decades of massive relocation, particularly to low-cost labor countries. Paradoxically, the impact of reshoring strategy on the functioning of supply chains remains little discussed, as if "stewardship had to follow". However, reshoring means taking the opposite side of logistical architectures that have proven their efficiency for decades, and it would be clumsy to think that it will be easy to set up local supply chains to replace global supply chains. Do the specialization courses in logistics and supply chain management (SCM) in French universities give enough space to these major transformations and their impacts? The example of recent technology bachelor's degrees, in particular the technology bachelor's degree in marketing, underlines that a significant knowledge deficit among students could have serious consequences on the competitiveness of French companies in the coming years.
    Keywords: France, Higher education, Industrial systems, Reshoring, Supply chain.
    Date: 2023–06–20
  24. By: Alona Shmygel (National Bank of Ukraine); Steven Ongena (University of Zurich - Department of Banking and Finance; Swiss Finance Institute; KU Leuven; NTNU Business School; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR))
    Abstract: What is the impact of cyclical systemic risk on future bank profitability? To answer this question, we study a large panel of Ukrainian banks between 2001 and 2023 comprising systemic events and wartime. With linear local projections we study the impact of cyclical systemic risk on bank profitability and following the original Growth-at-Risk approach we utilize quantile local projections to assess its impact on the tails of the future bank-level profitability distribution. We calibrate the countercyclical capital buffer, develop informative “Bank Capital-at-Risk” and “Share of vulnerable banks” indicators, and conduct scenario analyses and stress tests on profitability and capital adequacy.
    Keywords: systemic risk, linear projections, quantile regressions, bank capital, macroprudential policy
    JEL: E58 G21 G32
    Date: 2024–01

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