nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2024‒02‒19
thirteen papers chosen by

  1. Economic Knock-On Effects of Russia’s Geopolitical Risk on Advanced Economies: A Global VAR Approach By Boris Blagov; Maximilian Dirks; Michael Funke
  2. The Effects of Sanctions on Russian Banks in TARGET2 Transactions Data By Drott, Constantin; Goldbach, Stefan; Nitsch, Volker
  3. Internet as a factor of interregional migration in Russia, taking into account the level of education of migrants By Zaitsev Ilya; Klachkova Olga
  4. Reducing trade with Russia: Sanctions vs. reputation By Juan de Lucio; Raúl Mínguez; Asier Minondo; Francisco Requena
  5. The Rise of Korea's Defense Industry in the New Global Security Paradigm By Jang, Won-Joon; Park, Hea Ji
  6. Perspektiven und Herausforderungen für EU-Importe seltener Erden aus Russland: Fallstudien aus Deutschland, Frankreich und Italien By Kohnert, Dirk
  7. Migration response to an immigration shock: Evidence from Russia's aggression against Ukraine By Zuchowski, David
  8. Влияние цифровизации на экономику России By Gasanov, Oscar
  9. A Theoretical Analysis of Korea's Subcontracting Price Adjustment Scheme from an Economic Perspective By Yang, Hoonsik
  10. MDBC e-hryvnia: Zentralbankgeld in Planung By Assen Slim
  11. Mittlere Mächte - einflussreiche Akteure in der internationalen Politik By Lippert, Barbara (Ed.); Mair, Stefan (Ed.)
  12. Impact of the central bank's communication on macro financial outcomes By Tetiana Yukhymenko; Oleh Sorochan
  13. Mineral resource volatility and green growth: the role of technological development, environmental policy stringency, and trade openness By Feng, Meihong; Zou, Donghang; Hafeez, Muhammad

  1. By: Boris Blagov; Maximilian Dirks; Michael Funke
    Abstract: Using Russia as a case study and a global VAR model as a methodological tool, we analyze how heightened geopolitical risk shocks propagate across advanced economies and quantify the economic effects of these events. The global VAR impulse response functions in response to the skyrocketing Russian geo-political risk shock after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine revealed a contraction of GDP and an increase in inflation. Eastern European neighboring countries are particularly affected by the Russian geopolitical risk shock. We also document a strong component of the Russian geopolitical risk shock that is not driven by fossil fuel prices.
    Keywords: geopolitical risk, international business cycle transmission, global VAR model, Russia
    JEL: C32 E32 F51 F52
    Date: 2024
  2. By: Drott, Constantin; Goldbach, Stefan; Nitsch, Volker
    Abstract: This paper examines the effect of financial sanctions at the most disaggregated level possible, individual bank accounts. Using data from the Eurosystem’s real-time gross settlement system TARGET2, we provide empirical evidence that sanctions imposed by the European Union on Russian banks following Russia’s aggression against Ukraine in 2014 and 2022 have sizably reduced financial transactions with sanctioned Russian bank accounts, both along the extensive and intensive margins. Among the various sanction measures taken, exclusion from SWIFT, a global provider of secure financial messaging services, turns out to have the largest effects.
    Date: 2024–01–18
  3. By: Zaitsev Ilya (Department of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University); Klachkova Olga (Department of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University)
    Abstract: The study uses gravity models to estimate the impact of the spread of information and communication technologies (ICT) on migration flows between Russian regions. Based on data on migration by education for 2015–2019, the trend that the spread of the Internet in the regions of destination leads to an increase in the flow of migrants with higher education has been revealed. On the other hand, for migrants with a low level of education, migration decreases if the Internet becomes more accessible in the regions of destination. Thus, for migrants with higher education, the channels of information and communication mostly prevail, and for the rest a channel of better living conditions is more common.
    Keywords: interregional migration, gravity models, regions of Russia, information and communication technologies, education
    JEL: L86 R23
    Date: 2024–01
  4. By: Juan de Lucio (Universidad de Alcalá. Pza. San Diego, s/n, 28801, Alcalá de Henares (Spain).); Raúl Mínguez (Cámara de Comercio de España and Universidad Antonio de Nebrija. Calle de Santa Cruz de Marcenado, 27, 28015, Madrid (Spain).); Asier Minondo (Corresponding author. Deusto Business School, University of Deusto, Camino de Mundaiz 50, 20012 Donostia - San Sebastián (Spain).); Francisco Requena (Department of Economic Structure, University of Valencia, Avda. dels Tarongers s/n, 46022 Valencia (Spain).)
    Abstract: The invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 led the European Union to impose a wide range of economic sanctions on Russia. Parallel to this process, many multinational firms, due to reputational concerns, voluntarily decided to suspend their activities in Russia. This paper quantifies the impact of trade sanctions and the decision of firms to suspend activities on Spanish exports and imports with Russia. Using an event study methodology, we find that the decision of firms to suspend activities in Russia contributed to the reduction in exports and imports by 26% and 43%, respectively, while sanctions contributed by 9% and 21%, respectively. These figures highlight that firms’ actions to protect their reputation can significantly complement sanctions in reducing the amount of trade with target countries.
    Keywords: sanctions, reputation, Russian invasion of Ukraine, firm-level exports and imports, Spain
    JEL: F10 F14
    Date: 2024–01
  5. By: Jang, Won-Joon (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade); Park, Hea Ji (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade)
    Abstract: As of this writing, one and a half years have passed since Russia’s sudden invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022. Despite early prospects of a unilateral victory for Russia, which has the world’s second-most powerful military according to the Global Firepower Index (GFI), Ukraine (No. 22 by GFI) has stopped Russian progress thanks to full-fledged defense support from the United States, NATO and other global allies. As of December 2023, Russia and Ukraine continue to fight on the southeastern border of the country and around Crimea, and the war is expected to continue for the time being. The global defense market is in flux due to the prolonged Russia-Ukraine war. Major think tanks in advanced countries, such as the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), and Janes Information Services (Janes), are scrambling to analyze changes and describe the prospects of the global defense market as defense budgets in major countries began to surge following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine War. Indeed, the performance of the global defense market before and after the February 2022 has been diametrical. Exploring this phenomenon, this paper analyzes the recent trends and prospects of the global defense market after the outbreak of war in Ukraine, and identifies the implications carried by the analysis. It concludes by offering a suite of policy suggestions with the defense industry in mind.
    Keywords: defense; national security; defense industry; weapons development; weapons systems; arms exports; Russia-Ukraine war; defense R&D; defense spending; military budgets; defense technology; weapons technology; Korea; KIET
    JEL: F51 F52 H56 L64
    Date: 2023–12–31
  6. By: Kohnert, Dirk
    Abstract: The European Union (EU) finds itself in a critical need for rare earths, particularly the refined products essential for the production of electric cars, turbines, and other technological applications. However, the refining process is not only energy-intensive but also poses significant environmental risks. Consequently, local communities, as evidenced by instances in Spain and Portugal, vehemently oppose having such operations in their vicinity, advocating a "beggar thy neighbour" policy. The EU currently relies heavily on China, which controls the majority of global processing, commanding 90% of all rare earths and 60% of lithium. In response to these challenges, the EU took a crucial step in November 2023 by reaching a preliminary agreement on the European Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA). This legislative initiative aims to enhance and diversify the EU's supply of critical raw materials (CRM), foster the circular economy, fortify Europe's strategic autonomy, and explore alternatives to mitigate dependence. Recent transnational crises, including disruptions to supply chains during the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine, underscore the imperative of secure supply chains across all economic sectors. These crises also underscore the significant influence wielded by major emerging economies, notably the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa), which dominate key global supply chains, including those for critical raw materials (CRMs). Russia plays a pivotal role as one of the world's largest suppliers of palladium (40% of global supply), the second-largest supplier of platinum (13%) and nickel (12%), and a substantial contributor of aluminium and copper. Furthermore, Russia possesses the potential to emerge as a major player in the rare earths market due to its extensive reserves. The country also accounts for a considerable share of the EU's acquisitions, including palladium (41%), platinum (16%), cobalt (5%), and lithium (4%). Notably, Russia serves as the primary EU source for platinum group metals processing (iridium, platinum, rhodium, ruthenium; 40%), phosphate rock extraction (20%), lithium processing (4%), and scandium processing (1%). To attain greater independence in external CRM provision, the EU must make significant investments in its mining and processing facilities. However, mining represents merely the initial phase; subsequent steps involve the separation of rare earth elements (REE) from oxides, refining, and alloy forging a complex, highly specialized, multi-stage process. In this regard, relative newcomers like Europe lag behind, as China has solidified its dominant position in each phase through a concerted, long-term industrial strategy supported by state subsidies.
    Keywords: Seltene Erden; Energiewende; Klimawandel; Umweltverschmutzung; Schwellenländer; strategische Autonomie; Russland; EU; BRICS; Deutschland; Frankreich; Italien; USA; China; Minerals Security Partnership; Critical Raw Materials Act; Industriepolitik;
    JEL: D24 D43 D52 E23 F13 F18 F23 F51 F63 F64 L13 L61 L63 L72 N14 N54 O33 O52 Z13
    Date: 2024–02–02
  7. By: Zuchowski, David
    Abstract: Russia's attacks against Ukraine have triggered massive and unexpected migration movements. In this paper, I examine the impact of the inflow of Ukrainians that resulted from Russia's aggression in 2014 on local migration patterns in Poland. For identification, I use an instrumental variable approach drawing on unique historical data on the forced resettlement of Ukrainians in Poland after World War II. The results show that the regional inflow of immigrants decreases both internal and international out-migration of the Polish population. I provide supportive evidence that the decrease in out-migration is due to the upscaling of local labor markets.
    Abstract: Die Angriffe von Russland auf die Ukraine haben massive und unerwartete Migrationsbewegungen ausgelöst. In diesem Artikel untersuche ich die Auswirkungen des Zustroms ukrainischer Arbeitskräfte infolge der russischen Aggression im Jahr 2014 auf lokale Migrationsbewegungen in Polen. Zur Identifizierung der Effekte verwende ich einen Instrumentalvariablenansatz, der sich auf einzigartige historische Daten zur Zwangsumsiedlung ukrainischer Familien in Polen nach dem Zweiten Weltkrieg stützt. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass die regionale Zuwanderung sowohl die interne als auch die internationale Abwanderung der polnischen Bevölkerung verringert. Ich finde Indizien dafür, dass dieser Rückgang der Abwanderung auf das Hochskalieren der lokalen Arbeitsmärkte zurückzuführen ist.
    Keywords: Migration, immigrant workers, Poland, Ukraine
    JEL: F22 J61 O15
    Date: 2023
  8. By: Gasanov, Oscar
    Abstract: Subject. The development of digital technologies and their impact labor productivity and economic growth in the country. Objectives. Measuring the impact of digital technologies on labor productivity and economic growth in Russia. Methodology and Data.The regression estimation was carried out by the Two-Stage Least Square method. Information and communication technology (ICT) expenditures and investment in assets aimed at purchasing ICT equipment were used as input variables. In line with previous authors' research, the regression equation is supplemented with measures of change in the ICT sector: ICT infrastructure extent, ICT usage, and ICT consumer empowerment. The data of Rosstat, the Bank of Russia and the International Data Corporation were used. Results. Our results indicate the presence of common properties of ICT development on labor productivity and economic growth. The statistically significant impact of ICT Spending and Investment of ICT was found on labor productivity and economic growth. The influence of ICT infrastructure development indicators on the studied variables is insignificant. ICT usage and empowerment are not statistically significant. The positive impact of the growth of ICT Spending and ICT Investments on Labor productivity and Economic growth in Russia has been established. However, the hypothesis about the positive impact of ICT infrastructure development on these indicators is not confirmed.
    Keywords: digital technologies, information and communication technologies, labor productivity, economic growth
    JEL: E22 E24 O33
    Date: 2022–06–16
  9. By: Yang, Hoonsik (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade)
    Abstract: When a supplier agrees to deliver goods or services to a buyer under a fixed-price contract, fluctuations in raw material costs over the contract period influence the supplier’s profit. A sudden and unexpected increase in raw material costs (as seen in recent years following the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the disruptions to global supply chains caused by the COVID-19 pandemic) can be detrimental to suppliers, especially to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). It is frequently argued that SMEs are prominent in South Korea. SMEs account for 99.9 percent (7.71 million) of all firms in South Korea. SMEs employ 80.9 percent of all workers (18.5 million), and annual sales generated by SMEs account for 46.8 percent of all sales nationwide (over KRW 3.07 quadrillion). In addition, a significant proportion of SMEs engage in subcontracting. A survey estimates that 50.6 percent of manufacturing SMEs participated in subcontracting in 2021. Despite the preponderance of SMEs in the economy, when SME suppliers request price adjustments in response to sudden increases in raw material costs they are (allegedly) not very successful. Given this, there had long been calls for the government to mandate price adjustments in subcontracting contracts to mitigate unexpected profit losses faced by suppliers when raw material costs suddenly increase. In October 2023, a mandatory price adjustment scheme for subcontracting contracts went into effect in South Korea. This article briefly explains how the policy works, introduces some discussions related to the adoption of the policy, and offers some economic perspectives on the policy.
    Keywords: subcontracting; small and medium-sized enterprises; SMEs; price adjustment scheme; price adjustment mechanism; subcontracting policy; contract theory; information asymmetry; transactional relationships; large corporations; contractor-subcontractor relationships; Korea; KIET
    JEL: C78 D23 L14 L24
    Date: 2023–12–31
  10. By: Assen Slim (CREE EA 4513 - Centre de recherches Europes-Eurasie - Inalco - Institut National des Langues et Civilisations Orientales, CESSMA UMRD 245 - Centre d'études en sciences sociales sur les mondes africains, américains et asiatiques - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Inalco - Institut National des Langues et Civilisations Orientales - UPCité - Université Paris Cité)
    Abstract: In einem internationalen Kontext, in dem die Blockchain-Technologie zunehmend an Attraktivität gewinnt, wurden zahlreiche Projekte für digitale Zentralbankwährungen (MDBC) ins Leben gerufen. Das von der ukrainischen Zentralbank (NBU) initiierte e-hryvnia-CBDM-Projekt ist eines der am weitesten fortgeschrittenen in Europa. Nach einer Definition des Begriffs MDBC gibt dieser Artikel einen Überblick über die Erwartungen der NBU, die Ergebnisse des 2018 gestarteten Pilotprojekts MDBC e-hryvnia und die noch zu beseitigenden Hindernisse für die endgültige Einführung dieser Zentralbankwährung der neuen Generation.
    Abstract: In an international context marked by a growing attraction for blockchain technology, many central bank digital currency (CBD) projects have emerged. The e-Hryvnia CBDC project initiated by the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) is one of the most advanced in Europe. After defining the concept of CBDC, this article reviews the NBU's expectations, the findings of the CBDC e-hryvnia pilot project launched in 2018, and the hurdles to be cleared to launch this new generation of central bank currency.
    Abstract: La MDBC e-hryvnia : une monnaie banque centrale en projet Dans un contexte international marqué par un attrait croissant pour la technologie blockchain, de nombreux projets de monnaies digitales de banques centrales (MDBC) ont vu le jour. Le projet de MDBC e-hryvnia engagé par la banque centrale d'Ukraine (NBU) est l'un des plus avancés d'Europe. Après avoir défini la notion de MDBC, cet article fait le point sur les attentes de la NBU, les conclusions du projet pilote de MDBC e-hryvnia lancé en 2018 et les obstacles qui restent à lever pour lancer définitivement cette monnaie banque centrale de nouvelle génération.
    Keywords: Central bank digital currency, CDBC, e-hryvnya, Ukraine, National Bank of Ukraine, Monnaie digitale de banque centrale, MDBC, e-hryvnia, Banque nationale d'Ukraine
    Date: 2022–12–06
  11. By: Lippert, Barbara (Ed.); Mair, Stefan (Ed.)
    Abstract: Mittlere Mächte sind einflussreiche Akteure in der internationalen Politik. Auf den Angriffskrieg Russlands gegen die Ukraine oder auf den Gaza-Krieg reagierten gewichtige Staaten Lateinamerikas oder Afrikas - so Brasilien oder Südafrika - nicht im Einklang mit westlicher Politik. Die zwölf mittleren Mächte, die in dieser Studie behandelt und auch als middle-ground powers, Mittelmächte oder swing states bezeichnet werden, weisen zwar viele Unterschiede auf. Doch wird ihnen allen eine (potentiell) wichtige regionale oder internationale Rolle und Handlungsmacht zugeschrieben, die sie von anderen Staaten abhebt. Sie bringen eine spezifische Kombination von Merkmalen mit wie Geographie, Demographie, Wirtschaftsleistung, Rohstoffreichtum, militärische Macht oder politische Ausstrahlung. Die Kooperation und der Austausch mit diesen mittleren Mächten sind für Deutschland und die EU von großer Bedeutung, sei es um gemeinsam Krisen zu begegnen, Politiken zu gestalten oder geoökonomische Risiken durch Diversifizierung der außenpolitischen Beziehungen zu minimieren. Die zwölf Staaten teilen drei Gemeinsamkeiten: die überragende Bedeu­tung wirtschaftlicher Entwicklung, wobei Fragen von sozialer und wirtschaftlicher Gleichheit und globaler Gerechtigkeit zentral sind; die starke Betonung von Stabilität und Sicherheit, wobei in deren Interessenhorizonten das Völkerrecht und seine liberale Interpretation an Bindungskraft verliert; ein Streben nach strategischer Autonomie, um wirtschaft­liche Entwicklung und Regimestabilität durch flexible Kooperationen und Optionenvielfalt im Sinne nationaler Belange abzusichern.Mit Blick auf zentrale Politikfelder - UN-Reform, globale Rohstoff-, Energie-, Klima-, Gesundheits- und Migrationspolitik - zeigt Deutschland ein differenziertes Verhältnis zu mittleren Mächten. Nicht zuletzt der ausgeprägte Transaktionalismus und die Tendenz zum "multi-alignment" mittlerer Mächte zwingen Deutschland dazu, sich stärker mit den materiellen Interessen und ordnungspolitischen Vorstellungen mittlerer Mächte auseinanderzusetzen. Das müsste sich in der Konzeption und Durchführung von Dialogformaten, bi- und internationalen Verhandlungen vor allem über Regulierungsfragen und neue Lastenteilungen niederschlagen.
    Date: 2024
  12. By: Tetiana Yukhymenko (National Bank of Ukraine); Oleh Sorochan (National Bank of Ukraine)
    Abstract: The study explores the impact of central bank communications on a range of macro-financial indicators. Specifically, we examine whether information posted on the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) website influences foreign exchange (FX) markets and the inflation expectations of experts. Our main results suggest that the NBU's statements and press releases on monetary policy issues matter. For instance, we find that exchange rate movements and volatility are negatively correlated with the volumes of publications of the NBU on its official website. However, this effect is noticeably bigger for volatility than for exchange rate changes. The impact of communication on FX developments is the strongest a week after the news release, and it persists further. Furthermore, inflation expectations of financial experts, though indifferent to all NBU updates, turn out to be sensitive to monetary policy announcements. The letter reduces the level of expectations and interest rates.
    Keywords: central bank communications ; monetary policy ; FX market ; text analysis
    JEL: E58 E71 C55
    Date: 2024–02–05
  13. By: Feng, Meihong; Zou, Donghang; Hafeez, Muhammad
    Abstract: While natural resources significantly contribute to global socio-economic development, the unresolved question of their volatility's role in decoupling economic growth and carbon emissions persists. Previous empirical studies have underscored both positive and negative impacts of natural resource exploration on economic growth and the environment. This study addresses the knowledge gap by employing a linear non-linear panel ARDL framework to investigate the correlation between natural re source volatility and sustainable development in the BRICS economies. Our key findings reveal that natural resource volatility adversely impacts green growth within the linear model in both the short and long run. Conversely, in the non-linear model, an increase in natural resource volatility negatively influences green growth, whereas a decrease encourages green growth, albeit only in the long run. Moreover, we found that technological development, stringent environmental policies, and trade openness are conducive to green growth. These results underscore the necessity for managing natural resource volatility to foster sustainable development, particularly in emerging BRICS economies.
    Keywords: environmental policy stringency; green growth; mineral resource volatility; technological development; trade openness
    JEL: J1
    Date: 2024–02–12

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