nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2024‒02‒05
twenty-one papers chosen by

  1. A Psycho-Historical Analysis of Nations: The Example of Ukraine and Russia By Tamilina, Larysa
  2. An assessment of the European electricity market reform options and a pragmatic proposal By Chaves, J. P.; Cossent, R.; Gómez San Román, T.; Linares, P.; Rivier, M.
  3. COVID-19, Corporate Non-performing Loans, and Corporate Lending Dynamics: Evidence from Russian Regions By Polina Popova
  4. Die Außen- und Europapolitik des Georgischen Traums im Kontext von Russlands Krieg gegen die Ukraine: Grenzen des Pragmatismus By Smolnik, Franziska; Tadumadze, Giorgi; Sarjveladze, Mikheil
  5. Republic of Armenia: 2023 Article IV Consultation and Second Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement and Request for Modifications of Performance Criteria and Monetary Policy Consultation Clause-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director By International Monetary Fund
  6. Fiskalische Aspekte einer EU-Erweiterung: Folgen eines EU-Beitritts der Ukraine für den Haushalt und die Kohäsionspolitik By Busch, Berthold; Sultan, Samina
  7. How did the full-scale invasion affect the aging process in Ukraine? By Basysta, Khrystyna
  8. Prospects and risks of the energy transition of the world's leading economies for the Russian economy By Lanshina, Tatyana (Ланьшина, Татьяна)
  9. ASSESSMENT OF THE OUTCOMES OF THE USE OF FOREIGN TRADE INSTRUMENTS TO REGULATE THE DOMESTIC MARKET OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS IN RUSSIA By Svetlov, Nikolai (Светлов, Николай); Ternovsky, Denis (Терновский, Денис); Uzun, Vasily (Узун, Василий); Shagaida, Natalia (Шагайда, Наталья); Potapova, Alexandra (Потапова, Александра); Shishkina, Ekaterina (Шишкина, Екатерина)
  10. Key findings from midline evaluation of Egypt’s forsa graduation program By Allen IV, James; Gilligan, Daniel O.; Kurdi, Sikandra; Shokry, Nada; Yassa, Basma
  11. Energy Markets Under Stress: Some Reflections on Lessons From the Energy Crisis in Europe By Pollitt, M G.
  12. Russia Today: does it real to turn to the path of progress? By Nelozhin, Sergei
  13. Анализ небанковского финансирования домашних хозяйств в Казахстане // Analysis of non-bank household financing in Kazakhstan By Акылбеков Ален // Akylbekov Alen
  14. Factors of development of regional innovation systems in Russia: comparative analysis By Razbegina Anastasiya; Mirzoyan Ashot
  15. Auswirkungen des Nahostkonflikts auf die deutsche Wirtschaft By Kolev, Galina V.; Obst, Thomas; Puls, Thomas
  16. Assessing the impact of a firm's export and import status on its efficiency By Knobel, Alexander (Кнобель, Александр); Zaytsev, Yuriy (Зайцев, Юрий); Sedalishchev, Vladimir (Седалищев, Владимир); Bagdasaryan, Kniaz (Багдасарян, Княз); Kuznetsov, Dmitry (Кузнецов, Дмитрий); Besov, Vladislav (Бесов, Владислав); Yeremin, Vladimir (Еремин, Владимир)
  17. Renewable investments in hybridised energy markets: optimising the CfD-merchant revenue mix By Gohdes, N.Nicholas; Simshauser, P.; Wilson, C.
  18. Digital Skills of Russian Citizens: Regional Differences By Karelin, Iliya; Kapelyuk, Sergey
  19. MONITORING THE ACHIEVEMENT OF THE NATIONAL GOALS OF DECREE NO. 204 USING INTERNATIONAL EXPERIENCE AND A SYSTEM OF INDICATORS FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT By Kosarev, Vladimir (Косарев, Владимир); Makarov, Andrey (Макаров, Андрей); Pleskachev, Yuriy (Плескачев, Юрий); Ponomarev, Yuriy (Пономарев, Юрий); Saprykin, Matvey (Сапрыкин, Матвей); Rostislav, Kirill (Ростислав, Кирилл)
  21. Republic of Uzbekistan: Technical Assistance Report-National Accounts Statistics Mission By International Monetary Fund

  1. By: Tamilina, Larysa
    Abstract: This study investigates the influence of historical encounters with invasions and territorial fragmentation on the formation of a democratic political culture. Utilizing individual-level psychological theories, I illustrate that enduring occupations tend to foster pro-democratic values, such as a sense of resistance and autonomy. Additionally, the historical presence of territorial fragmentation contributes to the proliferation of diverse opinions, stimulating social dialogues and prompting citizens to advocate for a greater say and increased participation in the political sphere. Conversely, regions acting as occupiers and avoiding territorial division typically exhibit authoritarian governance, fostering submission to authorities and a distorted understanding of power. To validate these propositions, I employ Ukraine and Russia as illustrative examples. By applying a structural equation modeling to the World Values Survey data, I demonstrate that Ukraine, characterized by dynamic occupations and territorial fragmentation throughout its evolution as a nation, is more likely to belong to a class reflecting a more democratic political culture. In contrast, Russia's history of a unified authoritarian state is associated with an increased probability of belonging to a class describing a less democratic culture.
    Keywords: History and politics, political culture, psychology of nations, Russia, Ukraine.
    JEL: N40 P5 P50
    Date: 2024–01–01
  2. By: Chaves, J. P.; Cossent, R.; Gómez San Román, T.; Linares, P.; Rivier, M.
    Abstract: The current European energy crisis, caused to a large extent by the unlawful invasion of Ukraine by Russia, has renewed calls for a deep reform of the European electricity market. In this paper, we look at the alternatives proposed for the reform of the European electricity market, analysing their advantages and disadvantages, and we put forward a specific proposal for the reform. We focus mostly on measures directed at the wholesale generation market, although we also propose some changes that we believe will also be needed at the retail level. Emergency measures to tackle the current energy crisis, which are not necessarily consistent with the long-term reform and should definitely not determine the long-term design of the European electricity market, are very briefly assessed in an annex, including their compatibility with this long-term reform.
    Keywords: Electricity market, energy transition, renewables
    JEL: Q41 L51 L94
    Date: 2023–12–29
  3. By: Polina Popova (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic had an extremely negative impact on the corporate sector across many economies. This study examines the relationship between the spread of the COVID-19 virus and the quality of corporate loan portfolios and the volume of corporate loans in Russian regions. Using cross-regional variation in the number of COVID-19 cases in Russia from April 2020 to February 2022, we document lower corporate loan portfolio quality among banks operating in regions with higher COVID-19 rates, as well as an inverse relationship between corporate non-performing loans and the volume of corporate loans issued by Russian banks. We conclude that Russian banks adjusted their credit policy, observing a decrease in the quality of corporate loan portfolios. We also quantitatively analyze specific business support measures introduced in Russian regions during the COVID-19 crisis
    Keywords: COVID-19, Policy interventions, Company loans, Banks, Russia, Regions
    JEL: Z
    Date: 2024
  4. By: Smolnik, Franziska; Tadumadze, Giorgi; Sarjveladze, Mikheil
    Abstract: Der außenpolitische Ansatz der georgischen Regierungspartei - eine pragmatische Politik vis-à-vis Moskau bei Fortführung des Kurses euroatlantischer Integration -, stößt im Kontext von Russlands Vollinvasion der Ukraine an seine Grenzen. Gleichzeitig greifen in Georgien Außen- und Innenpolitik zunehmend ineinander. Für die EU resultieren daraus Dissonanzen mit Tbilisi und Fragen, die unabhängig von der Entscheidung über den EU-Kandidatenstatus relevant bleiben werden.
    Keywords: Georgien, Georgischer Traum, Russland, Ukraine-Krieg, Westintegration, strategische Geduld, EU, Nato, Kandidatenstatus
    Date: 2023
  5. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: Armenia’s growth accelerated in 2022 and remained strong in 2023, boosted by an inflow of foreign exchange, migrants, and businesses, mainly from Russia. Inflation, which peaked in the wake of the war in Ukraine, has quickly subsided. However, the regional security situation worsened significantly in September 2023, after Azerbaijan’s government took full control of Nagorno-Karabakh, which triggered the exodus of about 100, 000 ethnic Armenians into Armenia. The government has responded with prompt policy measures to support their immediate needs.
    Date: 2023–12–14
  6. By: Busch, Berthold; Sultan, Samina
    Abstract: Nach der Empfehlung der Europäischen Kommission, Beitrittsverhandlungen mit der Ukraine aufzunehmen, wird der Europäische Rat darüber auf seinem Gipfel im Dezember entscheiden. Dies ist ein historischer Schritt, der, besonders vor dem Hintergrund des andauernden russischen Angriffskriegs, eine große geostrategische Bedeutung hat. Sollte die Ukraine in den nächsten Jahren der Europäischen Union (EU) beitreten, wird dies eine Vielzahl an Folgen haben. Nicht zuletzt wird sich ein solcher Beitritt auf den EU-Haushalt auswirken. Als bevölkerungsreiches, wenig wohlhabendes und landwirtschaftlich geprägtes Land ist abzusehen, dass der Ukraine umfangreiche Finanzmittel aus dem EU-Haushalt zustehen würden. Trotz der großen Unsicherheiten, die derzeit noch bezüglich eines Beitritts der Ukraine bestehen, etwa hinsichtlich der genauen formalen Ausgestaltung oder der zeitlichen Dimension, ist eine quantitative Abschätzung der Kosten wichtig für die weitere Debatte. In einer Abschätzung beziffert dieser Report die finanziellen Folgen einer Vollmitgliedschaft der Ukraine auf den derzeitigen Mehrjährigen Finanzrahmen (MFR) 2021 bis 2027 mit rund 130 bis 190 Milliarden Euro, je nachdem welche Annahmen über die Ackerlandfläche und die Bevölkerungszahl für die Ukraine getroffen werden. Davon würden demnach zwischen 70 und 90 Milliarden Euro auf Agrarsubventionen entfallen, auf die Kohäsionspolitik zwischen 50 bis 90 Milliarden Euro. Angesichts dieses Volumens müsste die EU bereit sein, sich zu reformieren. Nur so kann die politische Entscheidung, vor allem die Ukraine mit einer Beitrittsperspektive enger an sich zu binden, glaubwürdig sein. Dies gilt zum einen auf der institutionellen Ebene, aber es gilt auch auf fiskalischer Ebene. Eine Umschichtung im EU-Haushalt könnte bei der Bereitstellung der notwendigen Finanzmittel helfen. Ein möglicher Ansatzpunkt dafür wäre die Kohäsionspolitik. Da ein primäres Ziel der europäischen Kohäsionspolitik darin liegt, weniger entwickelte Regionen zu unterstützen, wäre hier eine Umschichtung bei einer Erweiterung um die Ukraine folgerichtig. Bei einer Umstellung der europäischen Kohäsionspolitik auf ein Konzentrationsmodell, bei der die Kohäsionsausgaben auf die ärmeren Mitgliedstaaten beschränkt sind, würden Finanzmittel in Höhe von rund 140 Milliarden Euro über den Siebenjahreszeitraum des aktuellen MFR zur Verfügung stehen. Somit würde eine Umschichtung bei der Kohäsionspolitik einen erheblichen Beitrag zur Deckung der Kosten eines EU-Beitritts der Ukraine leisten können. Bei aller berechtigten Kritik einer Konzentration der europäischen Kohäsionsmittel, gilt es, dieses Potenzial, etwa bei der Aufstellung des nächsten MFR 2028 bis 2034, in dessen Zeitraum eine Erweiterung der EU fallen könnte, zu beachten.
    Abstract: Following the European Commission's recommendation to open accession negotiations with Ukraine, the European Council will decide on this at its summit in December. This is a historic step that is of great geostrategic importance, particularly in light of the ongoing Russian war of aggression. If Ukraine joins the European Union (EU) in the next few years, this will have several consequences. Not least, such an accession will have an impact on the EU budget. As a highly populated, less prosperous and agriculturally dominated country, it is foreseeable that Ukraine would be entitled to extensive financial resources from the EU budget. Despite the great uncertainties that still exist regarding Ukraine's accession, for example regarding the exact formal structure or the time frame, a quantitative estimate of the costs is important for the further debate. In an estimate, this report puts the financial consequences of Ukraine's full membership on the current Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) 2021 to 2027 at between around 130 and 190 billion euros, depending on the assumptions made about Ukraine's arable land area and population. Of this, between around 70 and 90 billion euros would be allocated to agricultural subsidies. Cohesion policy would account for between 50 and 90 billion euros. In view of this volume, the EU must be prepared to reform itself. Only then can the political decision to bind Ukraine in particular more closely to the EU with the prospect of accession be credible. This applies not only to the institutional level, but it also applies to the fiscal level. The necessary financial resources could be made available through a reallocation in the EU budget, for example. One possible starting point for this would be the cohesion policy. As one of the primary objectives of the European cohesion policy is to support less developed regions, a reallocation in this field would be logical in case Ukraine joins the EU. If European cohesion policy were to switch to a concentration model, in which cohesion spending is limited to the poorer member states, it is estimated that financial resources of around 140 billion euros would be available over the sevenyear period of the MFF. A reallocation of cohesion policy would therefore be able to make a significant contribution to covering the costs of Ukraine's EU accession. Despite all justified criticism of a concentration of European cohesion funds, this potential must be taken into account, for example when drawing up the next MFF from 2028 to 2034, during which time an enlargement of the EU could take place.
    Keywords: EU-Mitgliedschaft, Ukraine, Wirkungsanalyse, EU-Haushalt, EU-Finanzbeziehungen, EU-Strukturfonds, EU-Staaten
    JEL: H50 H61 O52
    Date: 2023
  7. By: Basysta, Khrystyna
    Abstract: The aging process in Ukraine has become increasingly significant due to several factors, including the country's shrinking workforce, rising pension expenditures, and reduced capacity for long-term social and economic investments. Moreover, the ongoing war in Ukraine exacerbates these challenges by displacing a significant portion of the population, contributing to an increased burden on social welfare systems, and hindering economic recovery. Furthermore, the absence of a large enough workforce could contribute to the labor shortage and the resulting reduction in Ukraine's global competitiveness. To address these issues and mitigate the economic impact, Ukraine needs comprehensive strategies encompassing healthcare, pension services, and long-term social and economic investments. By investing in such strategies and promoting sustained economic development, Ukraine can effectively manage the challenges posed by its aging population and enhance overall economic stability.
    Keywords: Population, aging process, Ukraine, war, life expectancy.
    JEL: J10 J11 J13
    Date: 2023–11–25
  8. By: Lanshina, Tatyana (Ланьшина, Татьяна) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: The paper analyzes how the geopolitical events of 2022 influenced plans for the energy transition in the EU, and how they affected the development of the renewable energy sector in Russia. In the course of the study, it was revealed that in the current conditions, the intention of the EU to carry out the energy transition has not only not weakened, but, on the contrary, has strengthened. The Russian renewable energy industry, which until 2022 developed with a significant lag compared to both developed and developing countries, after February 2022, was in limbo, because a number of Western partners left the industry or intend to leave it, and the search for Eastern partners is complicated by risks, which potential new partners may face when cooperating with Western partners, as well as by the small size of the Russian RES market, which makes potential cooperation meaningless, especially in light of the identified risks. The research methodology consists in the use of general scientific methods (analysis and synthesis, induction and deduction, etc.). The results of the study contain recommendations for Russia's energy transition policy, which could contribute to the establishment of new economic partnerships between Russia and other countries in the field of modern energy in the long term. One of the most important components of such a policy is to strengthen the nationally determined contribution to the implementation of the Paris Agreement. However, new partnerships are out of the question as long as hostilities continue.
    Keywords: climate policy, carbon neutrality, renewable energy sources (RES)
    JEL: Q42
    Date: 2022–11–09
  9. By: Svetlov, Nikolai (Светлов, Николай) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Ternovsky, Denis (Терновский, Денис) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Uzun, Vasily (Узун, Василий) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Shagaida, Natalia (Шагайда, Наталья) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Potapova, Alexandra (Потапова, Александра) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Shishkina, Ekaterina (Шишкина, Екатерина) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: The current stage of regulation of the domestic market of agricultural products using foreign trade restrictions, associated with the growth of world food prices in 2020-2022 solves the problem of preventing the transfer of growth in world prices to domestic prices. The need to assess the impact of the regulatory tools used on the state of agricultural producers forms a hypothesis and determines the relevance of the study. Objective: to assess the impact of foreign trade instruments for regulating the agricultural market on the state of its producers. Object: producers of agricultural products. Subject: production, consumption, export and import of agricultural products. The study was carried out at the Center of Agro-Food Policy, RANEPA, 2022. Methods and data: data from Rosstat, Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation, Federal Tax Service of Russia, Federal Customs Service of Russia, Bank of Russia, FAS USDA, CEPII. The data and regulatory documents used, links to which are placed in the text of the study, are relevant as of May 2022. Methods of economic and statistical analysis were used during the study. Results: assessment of the current regulation of the domestic market of agricultural goods and the prerequisites for the use of alternative instruments. Conclusions. The introduced export duty on grain crops performs a fiscal function and, in part, a regulatory function in terms of reducing domestic prices. The direct effect of the introduction of export customs duties is a multiple of the fiscal effect of the current tax system. There are disproportions in the distribution of the amount of collected duties - in regions with developed chains of vertical integration, the cost recovery rate per 1 ton is higher than in regions where the produced grain is fully sold on the market. The level of marketability of production has a significant impact on the amount of support. The transition to determining the amount of subsidies using the maximum level of co-financing of the expenditure obligation of the subject of the federation leads to a significant decrease in the funds received by manufacturers in regions with a high level of budgetary security. Research prospects. The analysis carried out serves as a basis for studying the effectiveness of domestic market regulation instruments, alternative to foreign trade restrictions.
    Keywords: Agriculture, food markets, agri-food policy, tariff regulation, grain damper, subsidies
    JEL: Q11 Q17 Q18
    Date: 2022–11–07
  10. By: Allen IV, James; Gilligan, Daniel O.; Kurdi, Sikandra; Shokry, Nada; Yassa, Basma
    Abstract: Forsa is a pilot economic inclusion program implemented by the Ministry of Social Solidarity (MoSS) in Egypt. The goal of the program is to graduate beneficiaries of Takaful to economic self-reliance by enabling them to engage in wage employment or small-scale productive enterprises. The Forsa program began in 2023 after significant delays. Obstacles to implementation included the Covid-19 pandemic, Egypt’s economic crisis following the Ukraine-Russia war, and administrative challenges with procurement approvals.
    Keywords: EGYPT; ARAB COUNTRIES; MIDDLE EAST; NORTH AFRICA; AFRICA; social protection; targeting; livestock; ownership; policies
    Date: 2023
  11. By: Pollitt, M G.
    Abstract: This paper examines the 2021-2023 energy crisis in Europe exacerbated by the energy consequences of the full-scale Russia – Ukraine war which began in February 2022. We show that this is an historically unprecedented price shock to both gas and electricity prices. We then draw on lessons from UK energy policy in World War Two to inform European energy policy during this crisis. In light of this, we examine actual policy responses by the European Union (EU). The EU has responsibility for the European single market in electricity and gas (which also formally includes Norway and effectively includes the UK) and has attempted to co-ordinate EU-27 responses to the crisis. We highlight four good and three bad policy responses observed across Europe. We conclude with longer-run lessons for energy and climate policy arising from this gas and electricity price shock.
    Keywords: energy crisis, single market in energy, wartime
    JEL: L94 L95
    Date: 2023–12–29
  12. By: Nelozhin, Sergei
    Abstract: A compact publicist essay is devoted to the burning topic of current and future sys-tem transformation in Russia. Initially, the author substantiates the need for a complex solution to the problem of overcoming the current dead-end path of the national development. The central place in the book has occupied by a capacious analysis of the system transformational changes that have taken place in the main fields of social action within the modern period in after socialist Russia. On this ground, the possibility of a real alternative to the future development of the country on the path of overall sustainable progress has revealed, which will become achievable after the expected exhaustion of the current militaristic course by the Kremlin authorities.
    Keywords: Russia, system transformation, market transition, national elite, digitalization, sustainable development
    JEL: H0 O1 P0 P5 Z0
    Date: 2023–12–08
  13. By: Акылбеков Ален // Akylbekov Alen (National Bank of Kazakhstan)
    Keywords: микрофинансы, риски микрокредитования, небанковское финансирование, микрофинансовые организации, microfinance, micro-credit risks, non-bank financing, microfinance organizations
    JEL: G21 G23 O15 O16
    Date: 2024
  14. By: Razbegina Anastasiya (Department of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University); Mirzoyan Ashot (Department of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University)
    Abstract: In the context of universal digitalization and increasing competition between countries and regions in the struggle for resources and markets, innovation is becoming a critical factor in development. Regional innovation systems (RIS) play a key role in the creation and use of innovations, as they represent a complex network of participants in the innovation process, including educational organizations and research institutes, entrepreneurship, the state and other institutions. The purpose of the study is to evaluate the effectiveness of RICE and determine the factors influencing them. The study of the factors of RICE development is an urgent and important task, since it allows us to identify the main mechanisms that influence the success or failure of regions in the field of innovative development. In Russia, there is a significant regional inequality in terms of the level of innovation activity, which necessitates the analysis of the peculiarities of RICE development in different regions. Also, the development of effective strategies and policies for innovative development at the regional level requires a comprehensive study of regional specifics, strengths and weaknesses of RICE. To assess the effectiveness of RIS, a DEA model is used, as well as cluster analysis using k-means and k-medians (k-medoids), regression analysis (tobit). As a result, a rating of innovative development of Russian regions was compiled, and effective regions were identified (Moscow, Tatarstan, Moscow Region, Samara Region, Ivanovo Region, Mari El) and abnormal regions for which a special approach and a special innovation policy are needed to achieve the necessary level of innovative development.
    Keywords: innovations, regional innovation systems, regional development
    JEL: C67 O30
    Date: 2023–12
  15. By: Kolev, Galina V.; Obst, Thomas; Puls, Thomas
    Abstract: Der Angriff der Terrororganisation Hamas auf Israel hat die Welt erschüttert. Jenseits der damit verbundenen humanitären Krise, die Millionen von Menschenleben betrifft, hinterlässt der Nahostkonflikt auch dauerhafte Spuren auf das Wirtschaftsgeschehen, zuerst in der betroffenen Region, aber auch in Deutschland und der Welt insgesamt. Der vorliegende Report erörtert die verschiedenen Kanäle, über die sich der Konflikt auf die deutsche Wirtschaft auswirken kann. So führte der geopolitische Konflikt im Oktober 2023 zu Turbulenzen sowohl auf den Finanzmärkten als auch auf dem Ölmarkt. Gestiegene Risikoaufschläge erhöhten die Finanzierungskosten für verschuldete Staaten, die steigende Unsicherheit trieb viele Investoren in die Suche nach sicheren Häfen, was sich etwa in einem dauerhaft höheren Goldpreis spiegelte. Das bereits durch den Handelskonflikt zwischen den USA und China sowie den russischen Angriffskrieg in der Ukraine gestiegene Risiko einer Blockbildung in der Weltwirtschaft nimmt eine neue Dimension an, was das auf internationaler Arbeitsteilung aufgebaute Geschäftsmodell vieler deutscher Unternehmen erneut erschüttert. Auf dem Ölmarkt hatsich zwar die Lage etwas beruhigt, doch es ist bereits wieder die Diskussion um einen drohenden neuen Ölpreisschock entbrannt. Modellsimulationen mithilfe des Global Economic Model von Oxford Economics zeigen, dass ein Anstieg des Ölpreises auf 150 US-Dollar pro Barrel der Sorte Brent mit einem Rückgang der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Leistung in Deutschland in Höhe von etwa 1 Prozent und einem Anstieg der Verbraucherpreise um 1, 3 Prozent innerhalb von zwei Jahren verbunden wäre. Doch die Ergebnisse der vorliegenden Analyse verdeutlichen auch, dass die Wahrscheinlichkeit eines solchen Szenarios sehr gering ist. Die Ölintensität der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Produktion ist in den letzten Jahrzehnten stark gesunken und Europa und die USA sind deutlich weniger abhängig von Öllieferungen aus dem Persischen Golf, als es in den 1970er Jahren noch der Fall war. Dies wiederum macht den Einsatz der "Ölwaffe" wenig wahrscheinlich. Vor allem die schwächelnde Weltwirtschaft und der damit verbundene Rückgang der Ölnachfrage haben bereits wenige Wochen nach Beginn des Konflikts den Ölpreis erheblich gesenkt und die Prognosen gehen zunächst von einem deutlich geringeren Ölpreis aus als der, dessen Auswirkungen in dem oben genannten Extremszenario untersucht wurde. Dennoch bleibt die angespannte geopolitische Lage ein wichtiger Bremsklotz für die Erholung der Wirtschaft, sowohl in Deutschland als auch weltweit. Denn die unsichere geopolitische und wirtschaftliche Lage bremst die Investitionstätigkeit vieler Unternehmen aus. Somit bleibt abzuwarten, welche Auswirkungen sich in den kommenden Monaten noch materialisieren werden, wenngleich die kurzfristigen Volatilitäten in den Märkten überstanden zu sein scheinen.
    Abstract: Beyond the humanitarian crisis associated with the geopolitical conflict in Israel, which affects millions of human lives, the Middle East conflict also leaves lasting marks on economic activity not only in the affected region, but also in Germany and the world as a whole. This report discusses the various ways in which the conflict is impacting the German economy. The geopolitical conflict led to turbulences on both the financial markets and the oil market. Increased risk premiums raised financing costs for indebted countries, and higher uncertainty shifted demand of international investors for safe havens, which was reflected in a permanently higher gold price. The risk of bloc formation in the global economy, which had already increased due to the trade conflict between the USA and China and the Russian war of aggression in Ukraine, took on a new dimension, which once again shook the business model of many German companies based on the international division of labour. Although the situation on the oil market calmed down somewhat, discussion arose about the threat of a new oil price shock. Model simulations using the Global Economic Model from Oxford Economics show that an increase in the price of oil to $150 per barrel (Brent) is associated with a decline in overall economic output in Germany of around 1 per cent and an increase in consumer prices by 1.3 per cent within two years. However, the results of the present analysis also show that the probability of such a scenario is very low. The oil intensity of overall economic production has fallen sharply in recent decades and Europe and the USA are significantly less dependent on oil supplies from the Persian Gulf, which makes the use of the "oil weapon" less likely. In particular, the weakening global economy and the associated decline in oil demand have already significantly reduced the price of oil just a few weeks after the start of the conflict and the forecasts assume a significantly lower oil price than the one whose effects were examined in the extreme scenario mentioned above. Nevertheless, the tense geopolitical situation remains an important brake on the recovery of the economy - both in Germany and worldwide.
    JEL: E37 F47 F51
    Date: 2023
  16. By: Knobel, Alexander (Кнобель, Александр) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Zaytsev, Yuriy (Зайцев, Юрий) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Sedalishchev, Vladimir (Седалищев, Владимир) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Bagdasaryan, Kniaz (Багдасарян, Княз) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Kuznetsov, Dmitry (Кузнецов, Дмитрий) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Besov, Vladislav (Бесов, Владислав) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Yeremin, Vladimir (Еремин, Владимир) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: Improving the efficiency of firms is one of the most important factors in economic growth. There are studies pointing to a possible increase in the productivity of firms as a result of their involvement in international trade. Partly, these differences are due to the fact that more efficient firms initially enter the international market (selection effect), but beyond this effect there is a direct effect on the productivity of participation in international trade. In addition, there is reason to believe that simultaneous participation in both exporting and importing activities (e.g. as a result of being embedded in value chains) may have a greater effect. Using econometric and analytical methods of data analysis, the heterogeneity of causal relationships between the increase in productivity of enterprises and their export and import status was revealed. However, the paper developed a methodology to identify enterprises whose potential involvement in international trade can contribute most to the growth of their productivity. The results of this research can be used for: the patterns established, as well as quantitative estimates of the magnitude of the effects corresponding to them, can be used to refine the forecasts of the effects of economic policy in the scenario analysis. Estimates of the effects of lowering the barriers to firms' export market entry on the productivity of Russian enterprises.
    Keywords: production frontier, export status, efficiency, international trade, productivity, selection effect, stochastic frontier model, high-dimensional model
    JEL: D21 F23 L22 B17 F13
    Date: 2022–11–11
  17. By: Gohdes, N.Nicholas; Simshauser, P.; Wilson, C.
    Abstract: Energy markets were designed to maximise productive, allocative and dynamic efficiency. Although renewables have become the dominant investment in deregulated energy markets, decarbonisation may not proceed at a pace consistent with the aspirations of policymakers. This has led governments in a number of jurisdictions to prime markets through ‘Contracts for- Differences’ (CfDs) or Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs), thus bringing forward investment and decarbonisation efforts. The war in Ukraine and its adverse impact on energy prices only emphasises a sense of urgency on an energy security dimension. Variable Renewable Energy (VRE) projects in Australia are typically underpinned by run-of-plant PPAs, but an emerging trend has been rising number of semi-merchant projects whereby some level of spot market exposure is retained. In this article, we examine how and why the semi-merchant investment model has arisen along with the minimum contracted coverage for a bankable project financing. Results reveal for investors with a target of 60-65% debt within the capital structure, a revenue mix comprising 73-78% PPA coverage and 22-27% merchant plant exposure is viable and a tractable project financing. For policymakers seeking to elicit 5000 MW of VRE plant capacity, the auction need only offer ~3800MW of CfD’s capacity, which has the benefit of reducing taxpayer exposures (cf. on-market transactions).
    Keywords: PPAs, Renewable Energy, Counterparty Credit, Project Finance, Cost of Capital
    Date: 2023–12–29
  18. By: Karelin, Iliya; Kapelyuk, Sergey
    Abstract: Digital skills have become a key component of human capital, influencing employment, career growth, and access to public services. However, the expanding digital divide underscores the importance of estimating and explaining regional variations. This study aims to empirically analyze differences among Russian regions in the prevalence of digital skills among their residents. By identifying factors contributing to digital inequality, this research seeks to contribute to narrowing the digital gap and promoting equitable access to digital opportunities across regions. We conducted a review of theoretical explanations for regional differences in human capital. Utilizing correlation analysis, we empirically tested several theories using the microdata of the Survey on the use of information technologies and information and telecommunication networks conducted by Rosstat. The study revealed that regional disparities in the prevalence of digital skills are more prominent for advanced competencies. Basic skills are consistently high across the Russian labor force aged 15–74, demonstrating minimal regional variation due to the widespread adoption of digital technologies. In contrast, intermediate and advanced digital skills experience substantial regional disparities. The findings highlight the influential role of three factors – the share of the creative class in the region, labor market tightness, and the consumption of cultural goods – in contributing to regional variations in digital skills. Importantly, these factors overshadow traditional explanations such as living standards, urbanization, and age differences. As the digitization of Russia's labor market advances, understanding the regional differences in digital skills proficiency becomes crucial. This research demonstrates that regional variations in digital skills levels are influenced by the same factors that contribute to spatial differences in human capital. Recognizing these regional differences is essential for lowering the digital divide in the country.
    Keywords: digital skills; digital competencies; digital inequality; digital divide; Russian regions; regional differentiation; creative class; labor market tightness; cultural consumption
    JEL: J24 R23
    Date: 2023–12–16
  19. By: Kosarev, Vladimir (Косарев, Владимир) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Makarov, Andrey (Макаров, Андрей) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Pleskachev, Yuriy (Плескачев, Юрий) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Ponomarev, Yuriy (Пономарев, Юрий) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Saprykin, Matvey (Сапрыкин, Матвей) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Rostislav, Kirill (Ростислав, Кирилл) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: National development goals achievability analysis, as well as the impact of national projects on the achievement of these goals, has been conducted on an ongoing basis since the signing of Presidential Decree No. 204 of 7.05.2018 and represents a complex task. This study presents an attempt to build such a model based on machine learning methods. Several important points need to be taken into account while building such model: the ability to effectively take into account nonlinear dependencies between factors, the possibility of using large arrays of heterogeneous incoming data, taking into account the influence of macroeconomic factors, as well as the direct results of national projects on indicators of national development goals. With the help of the constructed model, a shortterm forecast for 2022 was built for several indicators of national goals. As a part of the model this paper also analyzes the mutual impact of expenditures on national projects, as well as their contribution to the achievement of national development goals.
    Date: 2022–11–10
  20. By: Yaskova, Natalya (Яськова, Наталья) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Zaytseva, Larisa (Зайцева, Лариса) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: Features of the of construction projects implementation sphere (especially in a crisis period associated with force majeure) require the development and implementation of effective disputes resolution methods at all stages of the project life cycle to ensure its sustainability, which forms the relevance of the topic, and the approach to its development - forms scientific novelty. Thus, the purpose of this scientific work is to develop a system of alternative methods and mechanisms for dispute resolution in the investment and construction sector of the national economy at various stages of the construction projects implementation, taking into account the best foreign experience for subsequent implementation in the practical activities of economic entities. To achieve this goal, the authors set tasks that include analysis of features of specialized methods for resolving construction disputes, identification the most popular of them, systematization of the problematic aspects of implementation of such methods potential and development of recommendations for its introduction at various levels. The methodological basis of the study constituted the following methods of scientific knowledge: holistic approach, project-oriented approach, system-dynamic method. Based on the results of its conduct, the authors made conclusions about the need to take measures, both legislative and organizational and managerial in nature, to overcome the crisis in the construction industry. On this basis, the authors, for recommendatory purposes, outlined the directions for reforming existing approaches to project management, taking into account the need for a targeted focus on Dispute management. Prospects for research on this science topics are associated with the introduction of conciliation mechanisms in the practical activities of state bodies and business entities, as well as with the development of additional competencies of all project participants.
    Keywords: disputes resolution, conciliation mechanisms, project activity, disputes and disagreements management in the project, project-oriented approach
    Date: 2022–11–11
  21. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: A technical assistance mission assisted the Statistics Agency under the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan (SA) in improving source data for compiling annual and quarterly GDP. It did so by reviewing and discussing data collection forms and statistical questionnaires. The mission provided recommendations on simplifying some survey design and methods to achieve better data quality. The mission also reviewed the compilation of GDP components and provided recommendations for improving the estimation of trade margins at constant prices. These improvements to data and methods will improve the understanding of the Uzbekistan economy, both for domestic policymaking and international surveillance.
    Keywords: GDP; GDP by production; source data; statistical questionnaires; trade margins.
    Date: 2023–12–22

General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.