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on Confederation of Independent States |
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Issue of 2024‒01‒29
twenty-six papers chosen by Alexander Harin, Modern University for the Humanities |
| By: | Simola, Heli |
| Abstract: | We construct a proxy for Russia's war-related output to evaluate the macroeconomic importance of war-related branches for Russia since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Our results suggest that warrelated branches contributed significantly to Russia's economic recovery after the sharp decline of GDP in spring 2022. The largest contribution came from low-tech industries where Russia is less dependent on imports. With war-related branches diverting resources from civilian industries, Russia will find it increasingly difficult to maintain its current level of growth. |
| Keywords: | Russia, economy, military industry, sanctions |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bofitb:280982&r=cis |
| By: | Kluge, Janis |
| Abstract: | Mit dem großangelegten Angriffskrieg gegen die Ukraine seit Februar 2022 haben sich die Rahmenbedingungen der russisch-chinesischen Kooperation fundamental geändert. Die wirtschaftliche Zusammenarbeit mit China ist für Russland überlebenswichtig geworden. Der russisch-chinesische Handel hat seit Beginn von Moskaus Invasion stark zugenommen. Dagegen sind die chinesischen Investitionen in Russland, die ohnehin schon gering waren, seither weiter geschrumpft. Fossile Energieträger bleiben das Rückgrat der russisch-chinesischen Wirtschaftskooperation, wobei jedoch die Infrastruktur für eine schnellere Ausweitung der russischen Exporte fehlt. Russlands Rüstungsexporte nach China sind seit einigen Jahren rückläufig. China exportiert seinerseits immer mehr Dual-Use-Güter nach Russland, die von der russischen Rüstungsindustrie dringend benötigt werden. Die russisch-chinesische Kooperation in der IT-Industrie ist seit Beginn des Angriffskrieges gegen die Ukraine stark zurückgegangen, da die chinesischen Digitalkonzerne US-Sekundärsanktionen fürchten. Russlands Handel mit China wird größtenteils in Yuan abgewickelt. Für den Handel mit anderen Staaten ist Russland allerdings weiterhin auf den US-Dollar angewiesen. |
| Keywords: | Russische Föderation, Volksrepublik China, russisch-chinesische Wirtschaftsbeziehungen, Angriffskrieg gegen die Ukraine, westliche Sanktionen, Energiekooperation, Finanzkooperation, Währung Renminbi Yuan, chinesische Investitionen, Rüstungsexporte |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpstu:280977&r=cis |
| By: | Bogdanova, Iryna |
| Abstract: | Introduction The current discussion of Ukraine’s recovery and reconstruction takes place against the backdrop of the broad and internationally coordinated efforts to sanction Russia and its ruling elites. Given that these sanctions resulted in the assets of the Russian Central Bank and entities under its control being immobilized, the question that immediately springs to one’s mind is whether and how can these resources be used to rebuild Ukraine. While the political discussions have abounded in claims that these funds can be used as reparations and the war crimes committed by the Russian army only strengthen this resolve, this might be a thorny path to follow from a legal perspective. It is against this backdrop that this chapter aims to contribute to both academic and policy debates on the topic. The contribution is structured in the following way. Part 2 is dedicated to the analysis of whether there is a political will among the states that immobilized Russian assets to confiscate or use them. Following this, Part 3 focuses on the discussion of the legality of such a move. For this purpose, the legality of asset confiscation or their temporary use is examined against the background of immunities granted to central bank assets under international law. Subsequently, this part explores possible legal justifications for asset confiscation and their availability. Continue reading in the attached PDF. Full publication available. |
| Date: | 2024–01–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wti:papers:1431&r=cis |
| By: | Khan, Haider |
| Abstract: | Abstract: Dedollarization is accelerating. Inter alia, the US-led western sanctions have accelerated the thinking about dedollarization and some tentative actions in the BRICS countries in particular. Further expansion of BRICS has strengthened these tendencies. With support from the other countries in the Global South, dedollarization will receive continuing impetus. It is one of the main theses of this paper that eventually the US will be forced to settle down to its substantial but reduced role in the Global Economy while a multipolar order replaces the brief ---in historical terms--- the dollar-based US hegemony during the cold war and dollar dominance during the unipolar two decades from 1991 to 2010. However, the pace of this evolution will depend on international politics and strategic foreign policy moves by the major powers and coalitions in both the Global North and the Global South. Thus a historical nodal point has arisen with the advent of the tragic war in Ukraine and the US hostilities towards China. The sanctions regimes of the US-led Global North have compounded the instabilities in the existing system. As the world system moves towards multipolarity, an opportunity exists for the Global South to construct through partial delinking from the post WW2 financial architecture under US hegemony. Construction of an expanded BRICS-led supra regional financial architecture along with regional financial architectures will be a strategic step forward. Within two decades dedollarization will become a reality. Finally, a new non-aligned movement and construction of genuinely pro-people development programs can also become a reality. |
| Keywords: | Dedollarization, Regional and Cross-Regional Financial Architectures, New Global Financial Architecture, CBDCs, Ukraine, multipolarity, BRICS, expanded BRICS or BRICS-plus, China, Russia, The Global South |
| JEL: | E58 F33 F50 |
| Date: | 2023–12–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:119544&r=cis |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Romania has weathered the economic shocks from the pandemic, Russia’s war in Ukraine, and the resulting surges in energy and food prices relatively well. Growth has slowed down but is expected to remain fairly robust in 2023 and 2024, supported by investment. Inflation remains notably above target but has been declining steadily through 2023. Fiscal deficits remain too large, although the authorities adopted a fiscal package to limit spending and raise additional revenues. |
| Date: | 2023–12–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2023/395&r=cis |
| By: | Sokolov, Ilya (Соколов, Илья) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Belev, Sergey (Белев, Сергей) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Deryugin, Alexander (Дерюгин, Александр) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Leonov, Elisey (Леонов, Елисей) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Vekerle, Konstantin (Векерле, Константин) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The relevance: during the period 2000–2020 in the Russian Federation, there were serious changes in terms of taxation. An assessment of the tax burden on individuals is important in order to answer the question to which degree tax reforms are in line with the initially stated goals, primarily from the fairness criteria point of view. The consequences of these changes for both the budgetary system and the Russian population are still poorly understood, in particular, how changes in social contributions, VAT, and the introduction of various tax incentives and/or spending contributed to reducing income inequality. Such studies are needed both in terms of determining the extent to which various incentives are distorted by tax policy measures, and in terms of assessing the effectiveness of these measures. The object: taxation systems and features of tax administration in world practice and the Russian Federation. The subject of the study is distribution of the tax burden on taxpayers in the Russian Federation. The aim of the study is to assess the distribution of the tax burden by groups of taxpayers and types of taxes in the Russian Federation. When forming the work, such methods as the hypothetical-deductive method, grouping and comparison methods, analysis of international and Russian experience, econometric and statistical analysis, case methods were used. The study used data from the Tax Code of the Russian Federation, Rosstat and the Russian Monitoring of the Economic Situation and Health of the Population of the Higher School of Economics. The scientific novelty of the study lies in the assessment of the distribution of tax burdens of personal income tax, social contributions and VAT by individuals and households, as well as in assessing the degree of regressivity/progressivity of taxation using regression analysis. The result of the work was a report containing: 1. International experience in determining and assessing the tax burden. 2. Generalization of empirical and theoretical approaches to assessing the distribution of the tax burden. 3. Russian experience in terms of the main changes that determine the tax burden on taxpayers. 4. The results of the assessment of the tax burden by categories of taxpayers and various types of taxes. The results allowed us to conclude that when analyzing the tax burden of personal income tax and social contributions on the basis of RLMS data, the distribution of the share of tax payments in the payroll by net labor income is almost identical to the distribution by the total disposable income of an individual. It is important to note, however, that in both cases the share drops sharply when people employed in the informal sector are included in the analysis. For the officially employed, on average for the period under review, the share of tax payments in the payroll ranged from 26.9% to 30%, and for the full sample from 21.3% to 26.3%. When analyzing the distribution of the VAT tax burden, a weaker degree of regressivity was found compared to taxes on labor income. In the future, the authors plan to continue the study of the distribution of the tax burden on individuals in Russia and in the world. |
| Keywords: | PERSONAL INCOME TAX, SOCIAL CONTRIBUTIONS, VAT, TAX BURDEN, DISTRIBUTIONAL ANALYSIS |
| JEL: | H21 H24 H26 |
| Date: | 2022–11–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w20220311&r=cis |
| By: | Braginsky, Oleg; Bendikov, Michael |
| Abstract: | The article provides an analytical review of the reports of the 24th All-Russian Symposium "Strategic Planning and Enterprise Development". Current issues of strategic planning of both individual enterprises, their associations, and diversified systems are considered. |
| Keywords: | strategic planning, nonlinear economics, artificial intelligence |
| JEL: | A39 |
| Date: | 2023–07–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:119470&r=cis |
| By: | Navarro, Adoracion M. |
| Abstract: | The recent calls to review the Oil Price Stabilization Fund (OPSF) are seen as a policy reversal of the downstream oil industry deregulation. The OPSF’s history reveals lessons, as petroleum price setting and using the fund resulted in mismatches and subsidies from the national budget. Policymakers faced challenges in adhering to the OPSF’s purpose, leading to price distortions and cross subsidization. Despite global trends toward removing fossil fuel subsidies, some countries with stabilization funds struggle to sustain operations. The current oil crisis triggered by the Russia-Ukraine war raises questions about deregulation, but the suggestion is to focus on reform durability rather than policy reversal. A dedicated communication campaign is proposed to educate the public about deregulation’s premise and promises. Policymakers are urged to commit to legislative amendments that improve, rather than reverse, reforms. |
| Keywords: | Oil Price Stabilization Fund;oil price regulation;downstream oil industry deregulation;policy reversal;price unbundling;strategic oil reserves;fossil fuel subsidies |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:pjdevt:pjd_2023_vol__47_no__2b&r=cis |
| By: | Gürtzgen, Nicole (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany ; Univ. Regensburg); Kubis, Alexander (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Stepanok, Ignat (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany) |
| Abstract: | "About a half of all German establishments reported being predominantly negatively affected by the war in Ukraine in the fourth quarter of 2022 according to data from the IAB Job Vacancy Survey. Those establishments posted a lower growth of vacancies (+11 per cent) relative to the fourth quarter of 2021. As a comparison, the establishments that were not predominantly negatively affected by the war showed a vacancies growth of 35 per cent relative to same quarter in 2021." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Keywords: | Bundesrepublik Deutschland ; Russland ; Ukraine ; IAB-Open-Access-Publikation ; Auswirkungen ; Beschäftigungsentwicklung ; Entwicklung ; Erwartung ; Krieg ; offene Stellen ; Personalbedarf ; IAB-Stellenerhebung ; IAB-Stellenerhebung ; Arbeitskräftenachfrage ; Unternehmen ; 2021-2023 |
| Date: | 2023–12–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabkbe:202323&r=cis |
| By: | Rostislav, Konstantin (Ростислав, Константин) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Ponomarev, Yuriy (Пономарев, Юрий) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Radchenko, Darina (Радченко, Дарина) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The development of agglomerations in Russia is a priority of spatial policy. To enhance agglomeration effects and accelerate the growth of the Russian economy it is necessary to understand the mechanisms of agglomeration effects. To compare the strength of Marshall agglomeration effects using the Ellison-Glaser-Kerr approach, the degree of concentration of Russian industries was measured using data on all organizations without exception as of January 1, 2020. The estimates show that pairs of industries in Russia tend to be dispersed relative to each other: most industries have significantly lower concentration than would be expected based on the overall location of these industries. On average, of the three external benefits of concentration according to Marshall, Russia's large labor market is the most important. Proximity to suppliers/buyers, their diversity is least related to the placement of industries in the same areas. The example of Kaliningrad region shows that regardless of the method of selection of organizations for comparison, there is no truncation of the distribution traits. Although the choice of the geographical unit of observation determines the estimation of the strength or even direction of the net agglomeration effects, the general conclusion about the lack of selection of enterprises, which we could take for the benefit of concentration, was unchanged. To verify this conclusion, we used various methods of territorial grouping of enterprises and the boundaries of clusters (agglomerations) of enterprises were estimated using the DBSCAN method. The resulting estimates of the relationship of concentration to various sources of its external benefits support those public policies that seek to encourage the development of large urban agglomerations with large and constant markets for skilled labor. When forming particularly dense clusters, it is advisable to set activity requirements for areas with a special entrepreneurial regime, which would be consistent with estimates of the intensity of possible knowledge exchange between industries. |
| Keywords: | agglomerations, agglomeration effects, mechanisms, boundary delimitation, machine learning |
| JEL: | R1 C02 |
| Date: | 2022–11–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w20220295&r=cis |
| By: | Voloshinskaya, Anna (Волошинская, Анна) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Akimova, Varvara (Акимова, Варвара) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Komarov, Vladimir (Комаров, Владимир) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | Relevance of the research: modern urban planning policy in Russia creates significant risks in the long term, which include spatially inefficient urban zoning, an increase in the number of personal vehicles and the displacement of public transport, uncontrolled suburbanization and reactionary urban planning policy, a microdistrict approach, etc. In this regard, it becomes especially important to search for effective responses to environmental, social, spatial, economic and other challenges and risks caused by modern urban development trends. The aim of the study is to identify and systematize the long-term risks of the current urban planning policy in Russia, to conduct a comprehensive analysis of the best world practices of strategic urban planning, and the development of proposals for Russia's transition to a sustainable (in relation to long-term risks) urban planning policy. Research methods and methodology: comparative analysis, system analysis, quantitative and qualitative analysis, historical and economic analysis. Scientific novelty: the paper attempts to carry out comprehensive qualitative and value-content analysis of theoretical approaches to sustainable urban development, identify key risks of long-term urban development in Russia and create a mega-index to assess the sustainability of urban development. Results: it was found that by sustainable urban policy we can understand the implementation of such regulatory measures, urban planning solutions, transport solutions, etc. which have a positive impact on the economy, the environment and the social sphere at the same time. However, in the Russian cities, there is a degradation of urban planning and spatial policy, the formation of micro-district multi-storey buildings, within which there is an alienation of a person from the environment and a “reduction of living space”. The fundamental reason is the short-term planning horizon of both city and regional administrations, businesses, and the population. On the basis of the study, the authors propose recommendations for changing the existing urban planning policy in Russia to mitigate the risks of long-term development: gradual implementation of obligatory character for the Standard for the integrated development of territories developed by the Ministry of Construction of Russia and DOM.RF together with KB Strelka; introduction of the urban planning principle -"compact city"; a ban on the development of fields in the suburbs, restrictions on infill development and the transition to complex development; introduction of a moratorium on the construction of high-rise buildings in Russia, with the exception of their construction in special business districts (“city”), within walking distance of high-speed rail transport systems; raising the status and role of urbanists and architects in urban development planning; introduction of a procedure for assessing the long-term impact of construction projects, etc. |
| Keywords: | sustainable development, sustainable urban development, sustainable strategic planning, urban development policy, public transport, agglomeration, risks, measurement of city’s sustainable development |
| JEL: | B52 O18 |
| Date: | 2022–11–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w20220297&r=cis |
| By: | Levashenko, Antonina (Левашенко, Антонина) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Koval, Aleksandra (Коваль, Александра) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The subject of the research work is legal relations in the fields of regulation of datacirculation; of the use of disruptive digital technologies (for example, blockchain, the internet of things, artificial intelligence, etc.), of the development of the platform economy, of the development of digital interaction between economic entities. The relevance of the study is prompted by the implementation of the federal project “Legal regulation of the digital environment”, which provides for the development and adoption of several legal acts aimed at removing the primary barriers against development of the digital economy in such areas as civil circulation, financial technologies, intellectual property, telecommunications, legal proceedings and notaries, standardization, etc. At the same time the project does not set the ambitious goals to remove the existing barriers in the field of the data regulation, which drive the digitalization of the economy, and which are related to, for example, the requirement for total data localization and to the binary approach to the definition of personal data, to create legal conditions for the large-scale implementation of breakthrough digital technologies, with regard to new regulatory requirements (for example, the functioning of artificial intelligence systems) and Russia's leadership in the development of the platform economy. Without solving these problems, it is impossible to ensure the digital transformation of the Russian economy. The novelty of the study is in that it suggests solutions to the tasks of creating a digital economy regulation system in Russia that consider the latest recommendations in this area and current challenges. The objective of the research work is to form proposals for eliminating legal barriers in the regulation of data circulation; the use of breakthrough digital technologies (for example, blockchain, the Internet of things, artificial intelligence, etc.), the development of platform economy, the development of digital interaction between economic entities. The research methodology includes methods of logical, systemic, and comparative analysis using Russian and foreign legal acts, and analytical materials of competent authors and international organizations. To achieve the objective, the following tasks are to be solved: − analysis of the impact of legal barriers in the regulation of data circulation, the use of digital technologies, and the operation of digital platforms on creating conditions for digital transformation of the economy. − analysis of the OECD standards for data circulation regulation, use of breakthrough digital technologies (for example, blockchain, internet of things, artificial intelligence, etc.), development of the platform economy, and development of digital interaction between economic entities. − analysis of the approaches of the OECD member states to the task of removing legal barriers to the digital transformation of the economy. − proposals for the elimination of legal barriers in the regulation of data circulation, the use of digital technologies, and the operation of digital platforms that impede the digital transformation of the Russian economy, also in the context of the application of restrictive economic measures against Russia, as well as retaliatory measures that may create risks for the development of the digital economy. The research resulted in the development of proposals for the elimination of legal barriers in the circulation regulation, the use of digital technologies, and the operation of digital platforms that impede the digital transformation of the Russian economy. The contribution of the study is prompted by the need to improve Russian legislation on the digital economy. |
| Keywords: | digital economy, legal barriers, regulation of data circulation, data transfer, breakthrough technologies, blockchain, artificial intelligence, internet of things, digitalization |
| JEL: | K31 |
| Date: | 2022–11–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w20220303&r=cis |
| By: | Morozov, Mikhail (Морозов, Михаил) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Pribytkova, Lidia (Прибыткова, Лидия) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | Currently, there is a growing need to develop unified analytical approaches and methodological solutions for a thorough and complete assessment of the state of the civil service. Accordingly, the current interest from a sociological point of view in this institution is expressed in the analysis of various aspects of its activities, prospects and barriers to development, which will allow to achieve an effective organization of the civil service. The main purpose of the study: organizing and conducting an annual sociological survey in the field of civil service. To achieve the goal, the following fundamental and applied tasks were solved: defining the conceptual foundations of sociological research on the issues of the civil service and assessing the possibilities of applying the results in managing the development of the civil service, substantiating directions for improving the methodology and technology for conducting sociological research that characterizes the state and development of the state civil service , the possibility of assessing the managerial potential of civil servants in the management of the personnel of the civil service of the Russian Federation, as well as the development of practical recommendations for the development of the civil service. Research methods or methodology: scientific and methodological analysis, comparative analysis, generalization, expert assessment, surveys of civil servants, public opinion research on issues of the civil service. It is substantiated that regular sociological monitoring requires an appropriate level of infrastructure functioning and, in particular, the adoption of a separate regulatory legal act. As a means of social diagnostics, sociological monitoring makes it possible to successfully solve the problems of both collecting and systematizing data characterizing the processes of change in the public service and tracking the dynamics of these processes, allowing timely corrective action, as well as improving the process of developing strategic decisions in this area, and increasing the targeting of impact. and optimize resources. At the same time, the monitoring system itself needs to be fine-tuned, taking into account the differentiation of the civil service system itself. At the same time, it is important to provide two focuses of research: self-assessment and public opinion. In the methodology of sociological monitoring, the development of situational indicators and indicators is of no small importance, in this regard, it is important, within the framework of the directions of the cooperation plan, to develop a methodology for sociological monitoring as an integral element of the strategy and tactics of managing changes in the civil service of the Russian Federation. The implementation of a comprehensive sociological study will allow not only to accumulate resources in achieving the strategic goals of the development of the state civil service and increase the targeting of relevant activities, but can also largely help reduce the risks caused by the preservation of traditional and the formation of new social stereotypes regarding civil servants and the state civil service in in general. |
| Keywords: | public civil service, openness, satisfaction with the conditions of professional activity, professionalism, competence, personnel potential, personnel composition, public service management, public assessment, social trust |
| Date: | 2022–11–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w20220308&r=cis |
| By: | Bozhechkova, Alexandra (Божечкова, Александра) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Dzhunkeev, Urmat (Джункеев, Урмат) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Trunin, Pavel (Трунин, Павел) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Yakovleva, Irina (Яковлева, Ирина) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | Under the conditions of the inflation targeting regime, monetary policy decisions have an impact on the economy through the financial sector. Given the significant dependence of the Russian economy on the export of oil, it is actual to study the specifics of the financial sector of resource economies and identify bottlenecks that reduce the effectiveness of the monetary policy of the Bank of Russia In this study, using the example of 109 countries for the period 1980-2019, we assessed the degree of influence of resource dependence on the depth and structure of the financial sector. It is revealed that for a group of developing countries, the hypothesis of the "resource curse" of the financial sector is not rejected. This means that in conditions of resource dependence, the depth of the banking sector is decreasing, and the financial sector is more focused on stock markets. In the second part of the study, we investigated the degree of influence of financial sector development indicators on the effectiveness of monetary policy of commodity exporting countries which are also inflation targeters. The results of estimates obtained by the system generalized method of moments indicate that for resource economies, stock market development indicators play an important role in reducing inflation, whereas for non-resource economies, the influence of banking sector parameters prevails. In addition, in the period after the global financial crisis, as a result of increased volatility of world commodity prices there is an increasing role of financial stability indicators in ensuring the effectiveness of monetary policy in a group of developing resource countries. In the future, the study can be supplemented by taking into account, within the framework of econometric models, the sanctions episodes that affect the development of the financial sector in the oil-exporting countries. |
| Keywords: | monetary policy, monetary policy independence, economic integration, Eurasian economic union, econometric analysis |
| JEL: | E02 E31 E44 E52 C33 C36 |
| Date: | 2022–11–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w20220313&r=cis |
| By: | Chipurenko, Elena (Чипуренко, Елена) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Lisitskaya, Tatyana (Лисицкая, Татьяна) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | TThe subject of the study is the procedure for financial accounting and audit of digital assets, which in recent years have become significant distribution as objects of current business activity. The aim of the study was to analyze Russian and international practice to select the possible approaches of reliable and uniform reflection in the corporate reporting of digital assets and audit methods. The study was carried out during 2022 based on the department of accounting, economic analysis and audit of the Russian Academy of National Economy and the Presidential Service of the Russian Federation (RANEPA). Relevance. The absence of the rules for identifying and classification of digital assets in financial accounting does not allow to correctly reflect in the reports of organizations significant objects. No jurisdiction in the world has accounting standards for digital assets, and the IFRS Foundation only in 2022 set a priority task for developing the rules for accounting for digital assets. The research methodology is based on theoretical and practical methods. An inductive research approach is the desire to understand the nature of the problem related to digital assets. High -quality research method is a subjective assessment of attitudes, expert opinions in the field of digital assets. Practical research methods follow from theoretical and are mainly data collection and their analysis. Based on the results of the study, conclusions were drawn about the need: — for financial accounting for the clarification of the term “digital currency”, established by law, to divide the concepts of decentralized digital currency and the digital ruble of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation; — development of the federal standard of accounting of operations with crypto actures; — distinguish between the issues of accounting for crypto acts for commercial organizations of the real sector of the economy and professional participants in the financial market. Recommended: — before the development of the federal standard, use a single approach to identify crypt-toactics as intangible assets in accordance with the accumulated practice; — creation of publicly accessible terminological reference books in relation to digital assets with regular actualization; — Creating an information resource about digitalization risks. |
| Keywords: | financial accounting, financial reporting, digital assets, accounting standards, assets assessment, audit of digital assets, distributed ledger technology (DLT), blockchain, crypto assets |
| Date: | 2022–11–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w20220306&r=cis |
| By: | Kohnert, Dirk |
| Abstract: | Since Russia's war in Ukraine, many European countries have been scrambling to find alternative energy sources. One of the answers was to increase imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG). By bypassing the use of pipelines from the East and by building LNG terminals, the EU opened up a wider variety of potential suppliers. The Europe-Africa Energy and Climate Partnership provides a framework for a win-win alliance. African countries will be key players in the future, including sub-Saharan countries such as Nigeria, Senegal, Mozambique and Angola. According to the REPowerEU plan, hydrogen partnerships in Africa will enable the import of 10 million tons of hydrogen by 2030, replacing about 18 billion cubic meters of imported Russian gas. Algeria, Niger and Nigeria recently agreed to build a 4, 128-kilometer trans-Saharan gas pipeline that would run through the three countries to Europe. Once completed, the pipeline will transport 30 billion cubic meters of gas per year. The African Coalition for Trade and Investment (ACTING) estimates potential sub-Saharan LNG export capacity at 134 million tonnes of LNG (approximately 175 billion m3) by 2030. Sub-Saharan Africa is also expected to become the main producer of green hydrogen by 2050. However, this market remains to be developed and requires significant expansion of renewable production and water availability. However, the EU countries and companies involved would be well advised to take note of the adoption of much stricter EU greenhouse gas reduction targets for 2030 and the publication of the European Commission's methane strategy. That being said, the EU could risk having more than half of Europe's LNG infrastructure idle by 2030, as European LNG capacity in 2030 exceeds total forecast gas demand, including LNG and pipeline gas. Regardless, it should not be forgotten that African countries want and need to develop their domestic gas markets as a priority, and that export potential depends on this domestic development. However, LNG alone is not enough to ensure the resilience of the system in the event of a supply failure. Alternative energy sources and energy conservation remain essential. |
| Keywords: | LNG; Hydrogen economy; e-fuels; LNG terminals; Natural gas; Energy security; Gas storage; Sub-Saharan Africa; EU; REPowerEU; Trans-Saharan gas pipeline; emerging markets; Sonatrach; European Green Deal; African Continental Free Trade Agreement; Eni; TotalEnergies; BP; Nigeria; Angola; Mozambique; Tanzania; Senegal; Cameroon; Equatorial Guinea; Namibia; African Studies; |
| JEL: | E22 E23 F13 F18 F23 F35 F54 L71 L95 N57 N77 O13 Q35 Z13 |
| Date: | 2023–12–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:119402&r=cis |
| By: | Kasyanova, Ksenia (Касьянова, Ксения) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The Russian wholesale electricity market is divided into two price zones: the European (first) price zone and the Siberian (second) price zone. The pricing mechanisms in the first and second price zones are the same: within each price zone, there is a free competition market between producers, which is provided by a significant transmission capacity of the electrical network. At the same time, the flow between the price zones is insignificant, and the equilibrium prices differ to a large extent, since competitive bidding for electricity and capacity is held separately for each price zone. During the analysis of the spot prices by the price zones a two-level model of stochastic volatility was developed. It was already shown that the dynamics of electricity prices are significantly different in the European and Siberian price zones. The transition to the analysis of reginal prices allows to identify the possible causes of these differences. In particular, one of the analysis tools is the construction of linear regressions of estimates of the coefficients of the stochastic volatility model (calculated for each node/region) on the permanent region’s characteristics (geographical location of the region, shares of TPPs, NPPs and HPPs in the power generation structure, shares TPPs operating on gas and coal, the share of the main sectors of GRP). As a result of evaluating the models for the region-averaged node prices, the differences in average prices, weekly price dynamics, the effect size of holidays, heating degree-days and volumes of industrial production on prices between regions were explained. Analysis of node prices based on regional maps makes it possible to detect weaknesses in the infrastructure of the electric power industry and regions with anomalous dynamics of electricity prices. |
| Keywords: | Electricity prices, spot energy market, Bayesian inference, stochastic volatility |
| Date: | 2022–11–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w20220290&r=cis |
| By: | Grechkina, Olga (Гречкина, Ольга) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Dushakova, Lesya (Душакова, Леся) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Shmaliy, Oksana (Шмалий, Оксана) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | Currently, the issues of providing socially significant services in general have quite extensive regulation, based, among other things, on a significant volume of strategic planning acts. And this is completely objective, since it is this sphere of public administration that is most in demand and sensitive both in the context of the foundations of the constitutional system of the Russian Federation and its significance for the daily life of citizens. The social orientation of the state to the needs of citizens necessitates a consistent expansion of the availability and quality of socially significant services, which necessitates the formation of new narratives in this area of public relations, including the level of legal security and digital support. In this regard, new strategies and guidelines are emerging in the organization of the functioning of public power aimed at ensuring and implementing one of the basic values of the modern state - orientation to the needs of people, including all its services, which allows us to talk about the strategy of "client-centricity" in public administration, which is directly interrelated with the strategy of a "proactive" state, which is especially relevant in relation to socially significant services. The full and effective implementation of strategies and guidelines in the field of providing socially significant services largely depends on the quality of their legal support, including law enforcement, which makes it possible to raise the question of the need to monitor legislation and law enforcement in the field of socially significant services in the context of the formation of the concept of "client-centricity" in public administration and trends in the development of a new digital legal space. The results of this work can be used: in law-making and law enforcement activities of public authorities for: - improvement of legal regulation in the field of providing socially significant services, including assessment of the current regulatory framework and justification of directions for its improvement; - improvement of law enforcement practice, which will ensure the effectiveness of the provision of socially significant services. |
| Keywords: | socially significant services, client-centricity, legislation, public administration, public services, effective management, digital transformation, legal-tech |
| Date: | 2022–11–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w20220292&r=cis |
| By: | Akimova, Varvara (Акимова, Варвара) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Voloshinskaya, Anna (Волошинская, Анна) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Moskvitina, Natalia (Москвитина, Наталья) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Komarov, Vladimir (Комаров, Владимир) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | Relevance of the research: at the present time, a new round of competitive technological race, spurred on by the United States and China, is clearly visible. Even today, the budget for research and development in China and the United States is 20 times higher than the budget for R&D in Russia, which creates the risk of losing national technological sovereignty. The answer to this challenge could be the creation of super-regions - territories of scientific and technological breakthrough, in which intelligence, research and innovation infrastructure are concentrated, where there are world-class campuses with high quality conditions, and effective interaction between business, science and education is organized. The aim of the study is to analyze the best world practices for creating technological super-regions in order to form an effective national innovation system and to develop conceptual proposals for creating technological super-regions in Russia. Research methods and methodology: comparative analysis, system analysis, quantitative and qualitative analysis, historical and economic analysis. Scientific novelty: the work contains a comprehensive analysis of the factors and mechanisms of formation of 10 global super-regions of the world with different spatial formats and genesis, which include: Silicon Valley (USA), urban innovation ecosystems of Boston (USA) and Cambridge (UK), Raleigh Research Triangle - Durham Chapel Hill (Research Triangle Park, USA), Sophia Antipolis (France), Silicon Allee (Germany), Tsukuba (Japan), Bangalore-Karnataka (India), Shenzhen (China) and Guangzhou (China). An author's model of a super-region has been developed, as well as criteria for choosing locations for creating superregions. Results: based on the analysis of foreign practices, it was revealed that among the mechanisms for the formation of super-regions, a hybrid model prevails: government intervention is combined with the initiative of business and academic circles. The authors have developed a model of an innovative super-region, where in the center there are two equivalent factors - the "place" factor (everything that is created in a given location by a person) and the "climate" factor (nature and climate that cannot be changed), as well as a set of selection criteria for potential locations. On the basis of the developed model, recommendations are proposed for choosing territories for creating innovation centers in Russia: in the short term, these include Greater Sochi (Adler, Krasnaya Polyana), New Moscow; in the medium term - the southern coast of Crimea, Primorsky Krai and the Kaliningrad region. |
| Keywords: | innovation super-regions, innovation centers, development factors, formation mechanisms, national innovation system, prospects for creation in Russia |
| JEL: | B52 O20 R58 |
| Date: | 2022–11–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w20220312&r=cis |
| By: | Khan, Haider |
| Abstract: | Abstract: At least since Halford Mackinder’s work, The Geographic Pivot of the History, geopolitical analysis has identified the Eurasian landmass as a key prize in geopolitics. Historically, the post-revolutionary work by the Russian emigres presented a conservative Russian perspective on Eurasia. Recent developments, however, are more complex and invite us to analyze the intimate connections between economics and geopolitics---particularly, energy, technology, innovation systems and transportation corridors among other sectors. Innovation system of China will perhaps play a critical role along with the Russian innovation system in building a New (East) Eurasia during the new cold war. We can subsume under the expression Geoeconomics this intersection of international economics and geopolitics. Geoeconomics is developing as a field of inquiry and policy guidance in Global Security Studies, Global Political Economy and International Politics. Geoeconomics requires us to think in terms of new and old transportation corridors, international trade and finance, economic development or maldevelopment in a complex unevenly developed world of political economy and great power rivalry. As an overall framework, I develop a new modified form of realism which we might call critical trans-neoclassical realism (CTNR). Consistent with this somewhat novel theory, in our complex, uneven world of international competition, technological innovation needs to be reconceptualized as a complex dynamic system with national systems facing imperatives of both competition and cooperation. There is thus a call for increased efficiency. But this might neglect urgent needs for equity and thus could lead to greater polarization and overlook the critical needs of large numbers of people. In order to combine efficiency with equity in building the New Eurasia, I present a nonlinear complex dynamic systems model of innovation for China---applicable to Russia and other Eurasian countries--- within which both efficiency and equity can be addressed. For specificity and for facilitating concrete analysis during the still unfolding fourth industrial revolution, digital technologies based on semiconductor material foundation and the development of Artificial Intelligence (AI) are analyzed for China. Our framework of combining efficiency and equity in specific ways used for such concrete applications can be called socially embedded capabilities enhancing national innovation system or SECENIS. The Chinese SECENIS that is being built for the 21st century has important regional and geoeconomic implications for the future. The Chinese path shows that innovation systems are critical in building a region such as the New Eurasia. Russia is also trying to follow such a path. Other (East) Eurasian countries will need to follow such a strategy if they are to benefit from the New Eurasian and expanded BRICS arrangements. |
| Keywords: | Eurasia, Efficiency and Equity , Geoeconomics, SECENIS, Polarization , China’s New Eurasia Strategy, Global Security Studies, Global Political Economy, International Politics and CTNR, China and the 4th industrial revolution, Innovation, AI, semiconductors, complex dynamic nonlinear systems model |
| JEL: | F38 F4 O3 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:119637&r=cis |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Bangladesh is navigating multi-faceted economic challenges. Russia’s war in Ukraine disrupted the strong economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and threatened macroeconomic stability. Continued global financial tightening, coupled with existing vulnerabilities, has challenged near-term macroeconomic management. On the back of import compression, the current account deficit narrowed considerably. Nevertheless, amid an unprecedented reversal of the financial account, the overall balance of payments has deteriorated, leading to a continuous decline in foreign exchange reserves. Recent developments have underscored the need to expedite long-standing structural reforms to put the economy on an inclusive and green growth path. |
| Date: | 2023–12–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2023/409&r=cis |
| By: | Zhemkova, Alexandra (Жемкова, Александра) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The paper assesses the impact of the COVID-19 spread and measures of government support on the firms' productivity dynamics, its sectoral and regional heterogeneity. The work is structured as follows: the first section presents an analysis of the impact of the COVID-19 shock on various sectors of the Russian economy, examines the dynamics of firms' performance during the COVID-19, its industry and regional features, and systematizes a list of government measures to support enterprises during the COVID-19. The second section provides a literature review assessing the impact of supply and demand shocks, as well as state support measures on firms' performance, and discusses the basis for analyzing various aspects of firms' productivity. The third section presents the empirical strategy and the results of the empirical assessment of the impact of the COVID-19 shock and the support measures on the productivity of firms, provides within-firm and between-firm effects of COVID-19, its selection and reallocation effects. At the end of the work, the main conclusions of the study and recommendations are presented. |
| Keywords: | firm, productivity, labor productivity, covariance, TFP, covid-19, coronavirus, government support |
| Date: | 2022–11–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w20220291&r=cis |
| By: | Morozov, Mikhail (Морозов, Михаил) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Pribytkova, Lidia (Прибыткова, Лидия) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Martynova, Svetlana (Мартынова, Светлана) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Karlova, Olga (Карлова, Ольга) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The unified system is the basic state information resource in the field of civil service management. However, the capabilities of the Unified System outside the functionality that ensures the passage of the state civil service (including in terms of informing internal and external users of the system, as well as organizing information interaction between users) are used to a small extent. At the same time, the basic functionality of the Unified System in terms of the implementation of personnel processes is formed without taking into account user experience, and the communication capabilities of the Unified System as an information resource are not taken into account. External clients (citizens) and a significant part of internal clients (civil servants) do not use the Unified System due to insufficient awareness of its capabilities, lack of relevant content for them, as well as difficulties in using the existing functionality. In this regard, the analysis of user experience and the development of recommendations for improving the structure and content of the Unified System and its official website are of particular importance. The main purpose of the study is to develop proposals for improving the Unified System, as well as its official website. To achieve the goal, the following research tasks were solved: providing information and analytical support for information resources of public authorities (including support for network forms of interaction), as well as methodological support for users; preparation of proposals for improving the information resources of public authorities based on the analysis of the results of methodological user support; development of recommendations and methodological materials aimed at improving the quality and efficiency of users' work with information resources of public authorities. The potential of information, communication and digital technologies in the public administration system is used very limitedly, already implemented solutions and products require serious rethinking and “remodeling”. The basic functionality of the Unified System (including in terms of the implementation of personnel processes) is formed without taking into account user experience, and the communication capabilities of the Unified System as an information resource are not taken into account. The analysis of the user request and expert assessment of the Unified Information Resource made it possible to identify key problem areas and areas for improvement, to substantiate possible scenarios for the development of the Unified Information Resource of public authorities. The civil service portal requires restructuring and changing the emphasis content and content, focused not only on attracting the attention of candidates, but also on becoming a full-fledged platform for representatives of personnel services, experts, educational organizations. The solution of this ambitious task is impossible within the framework of the existing functionality and will require the development of a new site Unified system - the portal of the civil service as a single entry into the system of the domestic civil service. |
| Keywords: | civil servants, professional development, educational platforms, FSIS EIS UKS of the Russian Federation, single specialized information resource, service approach |
| Date: | 2022–11–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w20220309&r=cis |
| By: | Mozgovaya, Oksana (Мозговая, Оксана) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Phain, Boris (Файн, Борис) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Tyomnaya, Olga (Темная, Ольга) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Kuznetsov, Vasily (Кузнецов, Василий) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The aim of this research is valuation the impact of comparative method regulation to the financial results of default electricity suppliers and prepare practical recommendations for improving the methodology of comparative method regulation usage. The research tasks are methodology establishment and estimation of the comparative method regulation effects for default electricity supplier’s financial results, and preparing recommendations for the comparative method optimization. The thematic justification consists in necessity to evaluate the practical results of comparative method implication in different aspects of default electricity supplier’s financial results and further development of the comparative method as part of Russian Energy strategy 2035 and realization of tariff transparency policy. The research methods include factor and data analysis, as well as financial analysis. Information (including financial reports) published by default electricity suppliers in accordance with the information disclosure standards was used as the information base of the research. The scientific novelty of the study is establishment and practical approval of methodology of estimation of the comparative method regulation effects for default electricity supplier’s financial results and prepare recommendations for the comparative method optimization. According to the results of the research the increasement of the big part of default electricity suppliers’ financial stability after transition to the comparative method in activity regulation of default electricity suppliers have been revealed. Prospects for further work on the subject of the study are to develop a methodology for reference regulation in other areas of regulated activity. |
| Keywords: | sales markups, guaranteed (default) electricity supplier, tariff policy, financial results, financial condition, method of analogues comparison, yardstick regulation, electricity retail market |
| JEL: | E64 L94 |
| Date: | 2022–11–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w20220294&r=cis |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | A technical assistance mission assisted the Bureau of National Statistics (BNS) under the Agency for Strategic Planning and Reforms of the Republic of Kazakhstan in developing discrete quarterly estimates of Gross Domestic Product by expenditure (GDPE). The mission assisted BNS staff in developing chain-linked time series of GDPE components by applying the benchmarking and annual overlap techniques. The results were compared to the cumulative estimates currently published on the BNS website. The new estimates of quarterly GDPE better reflect the precise quarterly structure of the economy. These improvements to data and methods will improve the understanding of the Kazakhstan economy, both for domestic policymaking and international surveillance. |
| Keywords: | GDP; GDP by expenditure; household consumption; gross fixed capital formation; changes in inventories. |
| Date: | 2023–12–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2023/419&r=cis |
| By: | Borzykh, Ksenia (Борзых, Ксения) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Ponomarev, Yuriy (Пономарев, Юрий) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Tylkin, Igor (Тылкин, Игорь) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The problem of differentiation of HEIs by quality of educational, research and international activities and, as a consequence, of regional educational systems is relevant for Russia. To form a strong network of regional HEIs and to produce personnel whose competences meet the demands of the real sector of economy in the regions requires taking into account the spatial distribution of educational and postgraduate labour migration, specifics of location and quality of HEIs. The study obtained new statistical findings on the impact of the quality of regional educational systems on the volume of postgraduate migration and the propensity of university graduates to migrate to other regions in order to find employment. In addition, the contribution of universities to socio-economic development of regions ("third mission" of universities) has been empirically verified. It has been determined that improving the quality of universities has a positive impact on the propensity of graduates stay in regions where they receive their education, especially from "non-capital" regions. Universities can mitigate migration outflow of graduates and enhance human capital levels in regions by not only improving the quality and efficiency of education, but also by strengthening links with local labour markets through an active traineeship referral policy. Improving the quality of universities can be an additional tool of economic policy to increase regions' capacity to attract and retain qualified and educated young people, and to achieve more balanced spatial development of regions. In order to stimulate economic development in the regions, it is necessary to provide opportunities to improve the quality of the educational system and training of specialists demanded in regional labour markets, as well as to create conditions to encourage universities to provide scientific and expert analytical services to real sector organisations. |
| Date: | 2022–11–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w20220289&r=cis |