|
on Confederation of Independent States |
|
Issue of 2024‒01‒22
sixteen papers chosen by |
| By: | Tamilina, Larysa; Hohol, Oleksandra; Ihnatenko, Yaroslava |
| Abstract: | This study examines the mental health of students from Kyiv universities, considering the context of 21 months of war in Ukraine. Our primary dataset is derived from an online survey. Employing Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression, we analyze two key facets of mental health: anxiety levels and safety perception. Our findings reveal that anxiety levels among students are primarily shaped by the frequency of contemplation regarding the ongoing war and their emotional responses to war-related news. Similarly, obsessive thoughts about the war negatively impact safety perception, a trend that, however, tends to diminish for students studying abroad during the conflict. Conversely, for students who remain in Ukraine, the absence of psychological support from the university exacerbates the situation, contributing to a significant decrease in the sense of safety. |
| Keywords: | Anxiety, safety perception, mental health, wartime, Ukraine |
| JEL: | I00 I12 |
| Date: | 2023–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:119435&r=cis |
| By: | Arestakes Simavoryan (Public Administration Academy of the Republic of Armenia, ORBELI - Analytical Research Center, Noravank Foundation - Noravank Scientific Educational Foundation) |
| Abstract: | Հոդվածը վերաբերում է Ռուսաստանում գործող ադրբեջանական համայնքային գլխավոր կազմակերպություններին և դրանց գործունեության ուղղություններին, համանքի գործող անձանց՝ ՌԴ քաղաքական և տնտեսական շրջանակների ներկայացուցիչների հետ ունեցած նրանց կապերին ու դրանցից ածանցված այլ հարցերին: Միևնույն ժամանակ, անդրադառնում ենք Ադրբեջանի համար լոբբիստական գործունեություն իրականացնող այլ դերակատարներին ու հնարավոր զարգացումներին: |
| Keywords: | Azerbaijan, Russia, Lobbing, Artsakh, Diaspora, Ադրբեջան, Ռուսաստան, Լոբբինգ, Արցախ, սփյուռք |
| Date: | 2023–12–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04352426&r=cis |
| By: | Egan, Paul; Bergin, Adele; O'Toole, Conor |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:esr:wpaper:wp759&r=cis |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Russia’s war in Ukraine continues to have a devastating economic and humanitarian impact. The frontlines remain stalled as combat continues in eastern and southern Ukraine. Russia quit the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI) in July and has stepped up attacks on Ukraine’s port infrastructure. The war is severely impacting human and physical capital, with large-scale loss of life, drop in living standards, rise in poverty, and damage to infrastructure. Despite the resilience of the Ukrainian people and the authorities’ skillful policymaking to maintain macroeconomic and financial stability, continuous external support is critical to help restore medium-term external viability, prepare the country for post-war recovery and reconstruction, and facilitate Ukraine’s path to EU accession for which the European Commission (EC) has recommended opening accession negotiations. |
| Date: | 2023–12–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2023/399&r=cis |
| By: | David Andrews (Independent consultant) |
| Abstract: | The IMF’s concessional lending to low-income countries through its Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust (PRGT) has risen dramatically since the start of the pandemic and demand for the PRGT resources is expected to remain above pre-pandemic levels for quite some time. But the surge in lending has strained the PRGT's finances—loan resources have dwindled, subsidy costs have risen sharply, and reserves need bolstering. Projections show the risks to PRGT financing are accentuated given the Russian invasion of Ukraine and rising global interest rates. A multi-pronged decade-long effort is needed to ensure sound PRGT financing: (1) reinforce current fundraising efforts for loan and subsidy resources; (2) promote the use of the PRGT's deposit investment account; (3) terminate the reimbursement of PRGT administrative resources to the IMF's General Resources Account and (4) begin a discussion on IMF gold sales to take place in the out years. Each prong of the effort should start immediately, given the time lags involved in reaching consensus and implementation. |
| Date: | 2022–09–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgd:ppaper:267&r=cis |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | The ECF/EFF-supported program has helped Moldova navigate headwinds, including from spillovers from Russia’s war in Ukraine—energy crisis and record-high inflation—and a drought, while catalyzing additional external financing. Moldova was granted EU candidate status in June 2022. Strong reform momentum and growthenhancing and climate-resilient investments are needed to foster long-term, sustainable development and convergence toward EU income levels. |
| Date: | 2023–12–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2023/428&r=cis |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | The financial sector has remained resilient to a series of shocks and is well capitalized and profitable, but risks remain. Bank profitability and capital have surpassed pre-pandemic levels. Liquidity buffers remain strong and banks’ direct exposures to Russia are limited. The insurance and investment funds sectors have also weathered the pandemic well. There is limited evidence of credit or asset price booms over the past decade. However, inflationary pressures, partly the result of spillovers from Russia’s war on Ukraine, and a rapid tightening of financial conditions have weakened activity and reined in credit demand. Among high uncertainty, GDP growth is projected to slow in 2023, before returning to potential over the medium-term. |
| Date: | 2023–12–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2023/393&r=cis |
| By: | Kurakova, Nataliya (Куракова, Наталия) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Eremchenko, Olga (Еремченко, Ольга) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Zinov, Vladimir (Зинов, Владимир) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Kurakov, Fedor (Кураков, Федор) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The relevance of research is determined by the insufficient elaboration of the theoretical justification and methodological approaches to the analysis of the most dynamically developing thematic specialties of social and economic sciences. The purpose of this study is to develop approaches and highlight the trends and frontiers of the socio-economic sciences. The subject of the study is algorithms for assessing trends in socio-economic sciences. The work used theoretical and empirical research methods, including scientometric research methods, content analysis of scientific literature, analysis of opinions of the expert community. The key sources of information were data from three collections of scientific databases WoS CC, Scopus and ESI sampling. The result of the study was the identification of hot spots in the social sciences that are relevant for the middle of 2022. A review of modern methods of natural categorization of scientific research and models for choosing promising topics, as well as a search for services and tools for researching trends, is made. An original methodology for identifying thematic clusters based on algorithms for scientometric analysis and case study mapping has been developed. Among the most dynamically developing thematic areas, clusters have been singled out, which to a greater extent impose high demands and sustainable responses to the great challenges facing the Russian Federation. It was precisely such thematic areas that were given the status of "frontier". The conducted research allows to draw conclusions. The problem of identifying promising directions and trends in scientific research is an important task in the formation of national science policy in various countries, including Russia. Operational analysis and forecasting of scientific fronts and technology consumption are today considered as a key element of the country's technological development. The scientific novelty of the study lies in a new idea for the selection of frontier thematic areas based on the synthesis of special functions and options of three collections of documents from scientific databases WoS CC, Scopus and ESI sampling. As a recommendation, it is proposed to accept the synonymy of the concepts of "priority direction", "trend" and "frontier" in the conceptual apparatus of the scientific and technological policy of the Russian Federation. The results obtained during the implementation of research work serve as a methodological and research basis for the development of new promising thematic priorities in the field of socio-economic research aimed at achieving ideological sovereignty in the new geopolitical realities. |
| Keywords: | Social and economic sciences, frontiers, methodology, algorithms, scientometric analysis, big data, topic modeling, clustering |
| JEL: | O35 G38 |
| Date: | 2022–11–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w20220293&r=cis |
| By: | Allen IV, James; Gilligan, Daniel O.; Kurdi, Sikandra; Shokry, Nada; Yassa, Basma |
| Abstract: | 1. Forsa, which means “Opportunity†in Arabic, is a new economic inclusion program of the government of the Arab Republic of Egypt. Implemented by the Ministry of Social Solidarity (MoSS), one major goal of the program is to graduate beneficiaries of Takaful to economic self reliance by enabling them to engage in wage employment or small-scale productive enterprises. 2. The Forsa program began in 2023, after significant delays. Obstacles to implementation in cluded the Covid-19 pandemic, nationwide inflation subsequent to the Ukraine-Russia war result ing in funding challenges for asset purchases, and administrative challenges with procurement approvals by the Ministry of Finance. Forsa implementation was conducted under MoSS super vision by local non-governmental organizations (NGOs). While a few NGOs received their first payments in the first quarter of 2022, most NGOs received their first payments in October 2022, delaying program implementation to February 2023. According to the MoSS, in the second half of 2023, households receiving assets through the program increased from around 3, 000 (9%) to 10, 302 (29%) out of a target of 35, 000 households through 49 contracted NGOs and two private hiring firms, and the number of participants receiving a job has increased from 3, 324 (23%) in August to 5, 392 (38%) by end of November of 2023 out of a target of 14, 314 households through 22 NGOs and two private firms. |
| Keywords: | economic aspects; employment; wages; enterprises; inflation; households; EGYPT; ARAB COUNTRIES; MIDDLE EAST; NORTH AFRICA; AFRICA |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:menawp:43&r=cis |
| By: | Maria Shishanina; Anatoly Sidorov |
| Abstract: | The article discusses the basic concepts of strategic planning in the Russian Federation, highlights the legal, financial and resource features that act as restrictions in decision making in the field of socio-economic development of municipalities. The analysis concluded that to design an adequate model of socio-economic development of municipalities is a very difficult task, particularly when the traditional approaches are applied. To solve the task, we proposed to use the semantic modeling as well as cognitive maps which are able to point out the set of dependencies that arise between factors having a direct impact on socio-economic development. |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2312.07328&r=cis |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Despite a series of shocks in the recent past, the Belgian financial sector has remained resilient and firm evidence for sustained credit or real estate price booms is limited. The profitability, capital adequacy and liquidity of banks have surpassed their pre-pandemic levels, remaining comfortably above regulatory thresholds. Notwithstanding the blows to the economy inflicted by the pandemic, spillovers from Russia’s war in Ukraine, and the energy crisis, bankruptcies have not materialized, and the quality of loan portfolios has stayed strong as automatic wage indexation and government support have helped households and firms. The credit gap turning positive in late 2017 did not herald the beginning of a prolonged period of further widening, with private sector borrowing expanding at a robust pace until the rapid tightening of financial conditions since 2022 triggered an ebbing of lending growth. Prices for residential and commercial dwellings have steadily increased since 2014, yet market dynamism over this period has been generally below developments seen in other euro area countries, keeping valuations in check. |
| Date: | 2023–12–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2023/392&r=cis |
| By: | Robert Waschik; James Giesecke; Craig Emerson |
| Abstract: | Much of APEC's development has been driven by the so-called Bogor Goals (1994): 1: Free and open trade and investment in the Asia-Pacific no later than 2010 in the case of industrialised economies and 2020 in the case of developing economies; 2: Expansion and acceleration of trade and investment facilitation programs; and 3: Intensified development cooperation to attain sustainable growth, equitable development, and national stability. This working paper focuses on the adoption of trade facilitation measures by a subset of APEC members, comprising all 21 APEC economies other than China, Hong Kong, Russia and the United States. Hereafter, we refer to this grouping as "APEC-exCRU". Our motivation for examining trade policy reform in APEC-exCRU is to explore the magnitudes of gains available to APEC members in situations in which geostrategic competition might preclude participation by China, Russia and the US. To provide context for the magnitude of the potential gains from trade facilitation reforms, we also undertake simulations in which regions within APEC-exCRU eliminate tariffs. |
| Keywords: | APEC, Trade Policy Reform, CGE modelling, |
| JEL: | F13 |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cop:wpaper:g-342&r=cis |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Selected Issues |
| Date: | 2023–12–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2023/429&r=cis |
| By: | Ilya B. Voskoboynikov (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | How was life in the Soviet Union in the interwar period? The two interwar decades fall into the years of relative prosperity of the mid-1920s; the years of tumult and disaster (1929 – 1938) with the famines of 1932-22, mass exiles, and repressions; and the initial years of the Second World War. These decades fall into the middle of a demographic transition and the formation of internal administrative borders between the Union republics. Despite some ongoing debates on data quality, there is a general understanding, that per capita GNP growth was outstanding in the mid-1920s and in the second half of the 1930s. The literature is divided, however, on the conversion of this growth into improved living standards. A number of studies have postulated that after 1928 real consumption never achieved this level. Recent revisions show that the second half of the 1930s was relatively prosperous, so that the living standards of the urban population improved. An alternative approach is looking at biological indicators, such as life expectancy at birth, child mortality, and child and adult stature as they do not have the biases peculiar to economic indices. In the case of the Soviet Union, they are of special interest because of the non-uniform quality of official statistics and, specifically, the fact, that non-market prices did not reflect product scarcity. In terms of life expectancy, child mortality, and stature, the second half of the 1930s was accompanied by growing living standards and remarkable progress was achieved in public education and healthcare. However, the mass terror of 1937 38 with one million excess deaths was also part of the “high living standards” of the late 1930s. The conventional view on living standards mostly considers the Soviet Union as a whole, neglecting differences across the Union republics. This chapter attempts to also highlight what the literature says about differences across the Union republics |
| Keywords: | living standards, USSR, interwar period, life expectancy, population |
| JEL: | N34 N35 O14 O18 P24 P36 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:264/ec/2023&r=cis |
| By: | Anna Alberini (AREC, University of Maryland, College Park); Levan Bezhanishvili (Institute of Economic Studies at Faculty of Social Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic.); Milan Scasny (Charles University, Environment Center, and Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic.) |
| Abstract: | During the Covid-19 pandemic, the governments of many countries adopted measures to support the population during the lockdowns and periods of reduced economic activity. In the Republic of Georgia, in April 2020 the government announced that it would pay the electricity bills of residential customers in April and May 2020, effectively making electricity free, as long as usage would not exceed 200 kWh/month. In August 2020, the government announced that the policy would be in force again in November and December 2020, and January and February 2021. We examine meter readings from the entire country outside of the Tbilisi city limits, finding that the average household increased usage by some 5% above and beyond their normal. This figure however masks considerable heterogeneity in the effects of the policy across urban, rural, and "high mountain" status areas. We examine the possibility that awareness of the policy might decrease with the distance from the capital Tbilisi, but find little evidence of "distance decay" effect. We find that, as suggested by economic theory, in the months when the policy is in place low-volume consumers increase their electricity usage and high-volume consumers decrease it in an effort to make the 200 kWh mark. Assuming that the increase in electricity demand was met with imports and domestic generation by gas-fired power plants, our models predict that in our sample CO2 emissions increased by 2, 028 tons during the "free electricity months, " despite an actual reduction among the residents of large cities. |
| Keywords: | residential electricity consumption; increasing block rate (IBR) tariffs; salience; free electricity |
| JEL: | D12 Q41 Q48 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2023_37&r=cis |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Selected Issues |
| Date: | 2023–12–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2023/400&r=cis |