nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2023‒12‒18
ten papers chosen by

  1. Linguistic Landscape Of Orenburg Oblast By Egor Kuznetsov
  2. Increasing supply chain risks and Implications for Korea By CHOI, Wonseok; HAN, Hyoungmin
  3. Idiosyncratic and systematic spillovers through the renewable energy financial systems By Marco Tedeschi
  4. A Gravity Model analysis of Ukraine crisis impact on Germany’s trade patterns By Cuong, Nguyen Manh; Mutai, Noah C.; Ibeh, Lawrence
  5. BMF CP57: A Gravity Model analysis of Ukraine crisis’s impact on Germany’s trade patterns By Cuong, Nguyen Manh; Mutai, Noah C.; Ibeh, Lawrence
  6. Уровень безработицы в Казахстане. Альтернативный подсчет. By Адилханова Зарина // Adilkhanova Zarina
  7. Supply chains shocks and inflation in Europe By Jakub Mućk; Łukasz Postek
  9. Labor Migrants at Risk: Formal and Informal Insurance Strategies among Central Asians in Moscow By Sandra Pellet; Marine De Talancé
  10. Germany's Energiewende: Synergies, trade-offs and political drivers By Faus Onbargi, Alexia; Dombrowsky, Ines

  1. By: Egor Kuznetsov (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: The linguistic landscape (LL) of border regions has always attracted the attention of researchers, since linguistic diversity in these places can serve as an indicator of many processes occurring in the society. The regions where different cultures and languages are found are of particular interest, as well as places where the borders of states or administrative units are located. It is assumed that such context creates a certain language situation, which is reflected in the linguistic landscape. This paper is dedicated to the linguistic landscape of Orenburg and its surroundings as an example of a borderland region with a large share of regional and linguistic minorities. According to the results, the LL in the region is almost exclusively Russian – there is almost no indication of its multiethnic composition and borderland location. It highlights the underrepresentation of minorities in the monolingual Russian environment and provides some insights on language ideologies and the way of life in the Russia-Kazakhstan borderland.
    Keywords: Linguistic landscape, Borderlands, Russia-Kazakhstan border, Orenburg, Orenburg Oblast, Russia.
    JEL: Z
    Date: 2023
    Abstract: This study starts by highlighting how geopolitical factors, such as the US-China conflict and the Russia-Ukraine war, are reshaping global supply chains. The US-China conflict, marked by tariff wars and policy shifts, particularly affects key sectors like semiconductors and batteries. These conflicts reveal vulnerabilities in supply chains concentrated in specific countries and have been exacerbated by external factors like the COVID-19 pandemic. From these results, it suggests strategies for Korea in response to these global supply chain changes. These include stabilizing supply chain cooperation with the U.S. and China, strengthening connections with emerging countries, and forming multilateral or bilateral supply chain alliances.
    Keywords: Global Value Chain; US-China conflict
    Date: 2023–11–17
  3. By: Marco Tedeschi (Department of Economics and Social Sciences, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche)
    Abstract: This study examines the relationship between fossil fuels energy prices and renewable energy ETFs through a two-step approach: cointegration analysis and volatility spillover examination at both aggregate and frequency levels. Using daily closing prices from May 5, 2014, to October 31, 2023, we find evidence of cointegration among prices and a substitutedness (complementarity) relationship between fossil fuels and eolic (solar) energy. Exploring the system's common trend and correction mechanism underscores the influential role of growing Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) sentiment in the market. External events, such as the Russia-Ukraine war and the Covid-19 pandemic, have discernible impacts on financial prices. The study provides valuable implications for investors and hedgers, offering guidance for portfolio optimization and emphasizing the consideration of sustainable financial products.
    Keywords: Cointegration; Spillovers: Renewable Energies; Fossil Fuels; ESG.
    JEL: C22 C58 Q40
    Date: 2023–12
  4. By: Cuong, Nguyen Manh; Mutai, Noah C.; Ibeh, Lawrence
    Abstract: The Ukraine conflict has profoundly affected global trade and international relations, particularly for Germany, a major player in Europe and the European Union. This study utilizes a Gravity Model analysis to explore Germany’s trade network and assess the impact of the conflict on its trade partnerships.
    Date: 2023–11–05
  5. By: Cuong, Nguyen Manh; Mutai, Noah C.; Ibeh, Lawrence
    Abstract: The Ukraine conflict has profoundly affected global trade and international relations, particularly for Germany, a major player in Europe and the European Union. This study utilizes a Gravity Model analysis to explore Germany’s trade network and assess the impact of the conflict on its trade partnerships. By examining missed opportunities and potential disruptions caused by conflicts, the research contributes to a deeper understanding of trade dynamics post-geopolitical crises. This knowledge can guide policymakers and stakeholders in adapting trade policies and sustaining partnerships amid conflicts. Germany’s economic well-being relies heavily on exports, making it crucial to analyze the Ukraine crisis’s effects on its trade dynamics.
    Date: 2023–11–05
  6. By: Адилханова Зарина // Adilkhanova Zarina (National Bank of Kazakhstan)
    Keywords: unemployment rate
    Date: 2023
  7. By: Jakub Mućk; Łukasz Postek
    Abstract: This article quantifies the effects of supply chains disruptions on inflation in European economies. We apply the local projections method in a panel framework and estimate responses of nine measures of consumer and producer inflation to shortages in materials and equipment reported by enterprises in the business surveys conducted by the European Commission. We find that supply chains disruptions are proinflationary for all considered measures of inflation, and a larger effect can be observed for inflation of prices of goods rather than services. The peak of impulse responses can be observed 4-6 quarters after shock, while the effect usually dies out after 8-12 quarters. The forecast error variance decomposition (FEVD) suggests that supply chain disruptions are much more important in explaining inflation changes at medium- rather than short-run forecast horizon. Moreover, supply chain shocks seem to matter relatively more for the variance of inflation of consumer prices of goods than for other measures of inflation. Interestingly, the positive estimates of the impact of supply chains disruptions on inflation can be related mainly to the period corresponding with the COVID-19 pandemics as well as the full-scale invasion of Ukraine and may exhibit asymmetric or regime-switching nature.
    Keywords: supply chains shock, inflation, local projections, panel data
    JEL: E31 E32 F41 C33
    Date: 2023–09
  8. By: Lomteva, Elena (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: Introduction. The relevance of the study of this problem is due to the growing burden on the secondary vocational education system, namely the increase in the number of graduates of 9th and 11th grades who choose this level of education after school. The purpose of the article was to study the problems, consequences and risks of the growth of the number of entrants to the secondary vocational education system. Methodology. The leading method of research was the analysis of statistical data in the field of vocational education, as well as a sociological study conducted by the Center for the Economics of Continuing Education of the RANEPA in August 2020 among 903 graduates of educational organizations of the secondary vocational education system, which revealed the main motives for young people to choose the next stage of education. The Results of the study are the conclusions that the secondary vocational education system is not currently ready for increased interest on the part of young people. The growing number of middle-level and skilled personnel entering training programmes is constrained by limited resources for secondary vocational education, which forces young people to enter professional educational organizations on a paid basis or choose other regions for admission. The author considered the factors limiting the possibility of the secondary vocational education system to the tendency to increase the number of people wishing to enter professional educational organizations and the associated risks. Conclusion. The materials presented in the article can be used by the executive authorities of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation to assess the dynamics of development indicators and evaluate the performance of the secondary vocational education system and educational organizations.
    Keywords: secondary vocational education, resource provision, quality of education, educational migration, enrolment
    JEL: I21 I24
    Date: 2023–10–03
  9. By: Sandra Pellet (ERUDITE - Equipe de Recherche sur l’Utilisation des Données Individuelles en lien avec la Théorie Economique - UPEC UP12 - Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12 - Université Gustave Eiffel, IC Migrations - Institut Convergences Migrations [Aubervilliers]); Marine De Talancé
    Abstract: La reproduction ou représentation de cet article, notamment par photocopie, n'est autorisée que dans les limites des conditions générales d'utilisation du site ou, le cas échéant, des conditions générales de la licence souscrite par votre établissement. Toute autre reproduction ou représentation, en tout ou partie, sous quelque forme et de quelque manière que ce soit, est interdite sauf accord préalable et écrit de l'éditeur, en dehors des cas prévus par la législation en vigueur en France. Il est précisé que son stockage dans une base de données est également interdit. Article disponible en ligne à l'adresse Article disponible en ligne à l'adresse Découvrir le sommaire de ce numéro, suivre la revue par email, s'abonner... Flashez ce QR Code pour accéder à la page de ce numéro sur
    Keywords: risk, migration, vulnerabilities, informal insurance, Russia, Central Asia
    Date: 2023
  10. By: Faus Onbargi, Alexia; Dombrowsky, Ines
    Abstract: Farmers have started to adopt information and communication technology (ICT), which has considerable potential to impact farm performance. This study uses data from a 2018 survey of 763 vegetable smallholder farms in China to estimate the impact of ICT on technical efficiency (TE). We adopt propensity score matching to create a balanced sample of ICT users and non-users and a stochastic frontier model with sample selection correction to compare the two groups' TE. After accounting for self-selection bias from both observables and unobservables, the study finds a positive effect of ICT use on TE. On average, the TE score of ICT users is 0.64, whereas ICT non-users have a lower score of 0.57. A quantile regression analysis further reveals a heterogeneous impact of ICT on TE, with the largest effects among less efficient farms. These results suggest that vegetable farmers' performance could be fostered by the widespread use of ICT.There has been a significant policy shift in Germany's energy transition - the Energiewende - resulting from Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent war. The Easter Package, rolled out in Spring 2022, set a series of ambitious renewable energy targets and laws to enable both climate action and energy security. These are to be implemented in tandem with existing laws such as the Coal Exit Law and the Federal Climate Change Act. Aligning policies and targets to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and ensure energy reliability and affordability requires concerted policy coherence, a policy process to pursue multiple goals in a way that maximises synergies and minimises trade-offs. Reducing trade-offs (and their consequences) is especially crucial if the energy transition is to be just for all and become a vehicle towards a broader Just Transition, as well as to achieve the aims of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development (including "leaving no one behind") and the Paris Agreement. This policy brief first examines some of the most important policies - and (in)coherences - pertaining to the Energiewende, with a specific focus on the state of North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW), one of Germany's main coal-mining regions. The brief then goes on to explore the main political drivers - through the lens of ideas, interests and institutions - of policy (in)coherence in two parallel Energiewende policy processes that are particularly relevant to the electricity sector: the coal phase-out and the phase-in of onshore wind. Although solar power and green hydrogen are also key to a successful Energiewende, these are not the subject of this brief. Our insights derive from policy document analysis and 28 semi-structured interviews. To move towards a Just Transition, the following recommendations are made to promote coherence in Germany's Energiewende and inform the ongoing revision of the NRW Sustainability Strategy (last updated in 2020). The recommendations may also be of interest to the newly appointed NRW Advisory Board on Sustainability: Mitigate ideological, institutional and interest-based barriers to ambitious climate action by ensuring a political commitment to policy coherence. In NRW in particular, this means meeting recent promises to deliver a coal phase-out by 2030 and lift the 1, 000 metre (m) "rule" (i.e. 1 kilometre (km) between residential buildings and wind turbines), as well as mitigating arising conflicts between residents' interests, particularly around the sharing of profits. Such commitments should be made explicit in the revised NRW Sustainability Strategy and legislated. Promote greater political equality in all Energiewende policy-making decision processes at all governance levels (i.e. federal, state and municipal) in consultative and participatory mechanisms towards greater energy democracy. Reducing political in-equality is key to increase the public's acceptance of renewable energy projects (e.g. through cooperatives) - one of the aims of the latest NRW Sustainability Strategy. Integrate notions of social and climate justice into Energiewende policy to ensure the German energy transition is a just one for all individuals, and not just for German coal workers. Notions of procedural, distribution and recognition justice are featured here and should be highlighted in the updated NRW Sustainability Strategy.
    Keywords: Energiewende, Germany, North Rhine-Westphalia, Energy transition, Coal phase-out, On-shore wind phase-in, Political inequality, Synergies, Trade-offs, Policy incoherence
    Date: 2023

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