nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2023‒12‒11
seventeen papers chosen by

  1. Global inflation and Russian macroeconomic indicators: FAVAR framework By Rybak, Konstantin (Рыбак, Константин)
  2. Geopolitics, the Global South and development policy By Klingebiel, Stephan
  3. Auswirkungen des Angriffskrieges auf die Ukraine auf die Betriebe in Deutschland und weitere Ergebnisse des IAB-Betriebspanels 2022 By Bennewitz, Emanuel; Klinge, Silke; Neu-Yanders, Nathalie; Leber, Ute; Schwengler, Barbara
  4. The long-term housing rental market in Poland for the years 2000-2023 By Radoslaw Trojanek
  5. Household Perceived Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations: a Tale of Supply and Demand By Clodomiro Ferreira; Stefano Pica
  6. Rediscovering the Industrial Competitiveness of Taiwan By Kim, Dongsoo; Jeon, Jeonggil
  7. La politique extérieure fera-t-elle l’élection ? By Jana Jabbour
  8. Commodity Shocks and External Currency Stability : An Empirical Evidence from CEMAC By Fabien Clive Ntonga Efoua; Etienne Inédit Blaise Tsomb Tsomb
  9. Geopolitik, Globaler Süden und Entwicklungspolitik By Klingebiel, Stephan
  10. The Carbon Footprint of Global Trade Imbalances By Hendrik Mahlkow; Joschka Wanner
  11. Quantity versus quality in publication activity: knowledge production at the regional level By Timur Gareev; Irina Peker
  12. How does the number of water users in a land reform matter for irrigation water availability? By Sharofiddinov Husniddin; Moinul Islam; Koji Kotani
  13. Trade Diversion Effects from Global Tensions—Higher Than We Think By Mengqi Wang; Mrs. Swarnali A Hannan
  14. Combinatorial Discrete Choice: A Quantitative Model of Multinational Location Decisions By Costas Arkolakis; Fabian Eckert; Rowan Shi
  15. Tour du monde de la situation conjoncturelle. Allemagne : les stigmates de l’inflation By Céline Antonin
  16. La presión fiscal en España y en la UE By Miguel Ángel García Díaz
  17. Una mirada a los países del Proyecto de Integración y Desarrollo de Mesoamérica: avanzando hacia una recuperación transformadora tras el COVID-19 By -

  1. By: Rybak, Konstantin (Рыбак, Константин) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: The purpose of this research is to analyze the impact of global inflation and foreign monetary policy on Russian macroeconomic variables. This study provides a review and systematization of literature related to the identification and estimation of the external global shocks impact on the macroeconomic indicators of an individual economy, as well as literature related to global inflation processes. Exploiting factor augmented vector autoregression methodology we estimate impulse responses functions of Russian economy to various global shocks.
    Keywords: global model, external shocks, factor model
    JEL: C32 E17 F47
    Date: 2023
  2. By: Klingebiel, Stephan
    Abstract: This policy brief discusses the new geopolitical and geo-economic context and its significance for the Global South and the development policies of Western actors. The systemic confrontation between China and the USA, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but also the seizure of power through a military putsch in Niger, among other places, show: The environment for global cooperation efforts has become much more difficult. Actors in the Global South are no longer just participants on the sidelines of geopolitical conflicts, but are taking an active role. Western countries and Russia make strong efforts to woo them. At the same time, China and India in particular aspire to leadership roles as leaders for the Global South. The following points are of particular importance: (1) The changes in the international system have given the Global South as a group (despite the enormous differences between the actors in this group) a new impetus of identity - similar to the West. It is noteworthy that this North/South bloc formation makes other possible commonalities less pronounced. This applies above all to the attempt - which has been less success-ful so far - to strengthen the identification of open democratic systems as a mark of belonging. For many debates and alliances, the identification 'Global North/South' is formative. Formation of North and South camps is not helpful for finding international solutions. Approaches to counteract entrenched bloc formations and to create effective formats for exchange and understanding are therefore important. (2) From the perspective of Southern actors, the existing international order is a deeply unjust system that primarily protects the interests of the West, and especially those of the USA. Political offers from the West that do not really lead to structural changes are unlikely to arouse interest in the Global South, and will instead favour counter-designs - be they from China with its claim to leadership for the Global South or Russia. (3) In principle, the development policy of OECD actors has important potential to help shape the realignment of relations with the Global South. The policy field is, on the one hand, a proof of international credibility (among other things, fulfilment of international obligations) and, on the other hand, an approach that makes it possible to work with operational means on international problems in the first place. (4) Western development policy is likely to face further difficult situations with risks of escalation and failure (such as Niger and Afghanistan) in the face of multiple tensions in developing regions. Development policy should reflect the geopolitical context even more consciously in strategy and action. The defining geo-political context harbours the danger that the original development policy task - sustainable development of the partner countries - will be overshadowed. (5) Overall, it should be an important concern to rethink how international burden-sharing for development and climate finance agendas is organised. Here, it is important to consider both the actors from the Global North and those from the Global South.
    Keywords: Geopolitics, geoeconomics, development policy, development cooperation, Global South, India
    Date: 2023
  3. By: Bennewitz, Emanuel (Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Saar – WifoS an der FITT gGmbH); Klinge, Silke (Dreiwert Consulting GmbH); Neu-Yanders, Nathalie (Dreiwert Consulting GmbH); Leber, Ute (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Schwengler, Barbara (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany)
    Abstract: "The Russian war of aggression on Ukraine has had considerable impact on the German economy. This report analyzes how different business areas have been affected by the war and provides some indication to what extent the German economy has been impacted. To distinguish the extent of the economic impact, three categories are defined, based on the self-assessment of the establishments: (i) not negatively affected establishments, (ii) negatively affected establishments, and (iii) severely negatively affected establishments. On the one hand, the results do not reveal any marked differences between western and eastern Germany on how establishments have been economically affected by the war of aggression on Ukraine. In both parts of Germany, almost half of the establishments reported negative economic effects related to the war. On the other hand, the results show large differences between industry sectors. More energy-intensive industries in particular have been affected severely. This observation can be explained by the high portion of German establishments reporting higher costs for energy and fuel as well as higher costs for upstream services or raw materials. Additionally, the results show that establishments with a higher export quota, and thus a higher dependency on international relationships, were on average more likely to be economically negative affected by the war of aggression on Ukraine. Furthermore, the analysis reveals, at the time of the survey, an increasing share of economically negative affected establishments expecting a decrease in sales volumes for the current fiscal year and a declining number of employees until June 2023. Thus, the analysis indicates that especially for these establishments the negative effects due to the war of aggression were likely to increase. An additional topic linked to the Russian war of aggression on Ukraine is the integration of Ukrainian refugees into the German labor market. The results show that on average 7 percent of German establishments have received job inquiries from Ukrainian refugees in 2022. The share is higher for larger establishments. This observation also holds true for the share of establishments that have actually employed Ukrainian refugees. Additionally, the study shows that the employment of refugees is limited to a few industries. Also, the need for skilled workers poses a major challenge to the German economy. Three-fifths of eastern and western German establishments were expecting difficulties in covering their need for skilled workers in the next two years. Covering the current need for skilled labor is already a challenge for German establishments as they are facing high vacancy rates for skilled worker positions. This applies particularly to smaller establishments and the construction industry. Additionally, it is becoming increasingly difficult for establishments to cover their need for skilled workers through their own vocational training. In 2022, the share of establishments with vacant positions for vocal training increased compared to the previous year, particularly in western Germany. The two most important reasons for vacant vocational training positions are the general lack of applicants and the lack of suitable applicants in particular. Despite all of the negative effects described above, some positive developments for the German economy can be observed even though the war started at a time when the German economy was still recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic. For example, the share of establishments with a positive business result has recently increased after the declines in the 2019 and 2020, for both establishments in western and eastern Germany. The improved financial situation of establishments has not yet affected their investment rates, but already impacts the German labor market: total employment is increasing stronger than in the previous years and recruitment and departure rates are also increasing. Additionally, while the COVID-19 pandemic negatively affected the establishment-sponsored training, more recent developments are positive. Even though the pre-pandemic level has not been reached yet, the share of establishments promoting continuing training for their employees and continuing training rate have increased in 2022. However, it is becoming apparent that this recovery in continuing training activities is not accompanied by a change in the structure of the continuing training participants. In 2022, employees working on unskilled and semi-skilled jobs received the least training." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
    Keywords: IAB-Open-Access-Publikation ; IAB-Betriebspanel
    Date: 2023–11–03
  4. By: Radoslaw Trojanek
    Abstract: Using a micro-level dataset of over 1 million listings, the housing rental index for Poland from 2000 to 2023 was constructed. The offer data for the biggest cities comes from two different sources. The earlier data were obtained from archival advertisements in photocopies, photographs or periodicals, then digitally reproduced and arranged in a database. The data from 2009 were collected from advertising portals ( / several times a quarter. The hedonic indices were determined for the city level and then aggregated. This allowed us to investigate the rental market during the financial crisis, COVID-19 or the refugee crisis caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
    Keywords: hedonic indexes; listings; Poland; rental housing market
    JEL: R3
    Date: 2023–01–01
  5. By: Clodomiro Ferreira (Bank of Spain); Stefano Pica (Bank of Italy)
    Abstract: We study the joint behavior of households’ survey expectations for a wide range of macroeconomic and individual-level variables in the largest six euro area countries, both in the cross-section and time series. Although households disagree, their expectations are correlated in the cross-section. Two principal components explain a significant portion of the variance of all expectations. These components capture households’ perceptions of the sources of macroeconomic dynamics, with the first capturing supply-side views and the second component reflecting demand-side views. This structure of perceptions and disagreement is stable across countries and time and does not vary with demographic or socioeconomic characteristics. We then use these insights to identify two common factors driving expectations over time. The factors co-move strongly with measures of supply and demand disturbances and align well with a narrative based on increasing perceived inflationary pressures coming from supply after the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
    Keywords: Survey, Expectations, Inflation, Output, Supply, Demand
    JEL: D1 D8 E2 E3
    Date: 2023–11
  6. By: Kim, Dongsoo (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade); Jeon, Jeonggil (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade)
    Abstract: As of the end of 2022, Taiwan surpassed both South Korea and Japan in terms of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, a first since South Korea caught up with and then surpassed Taiwan 19 years ago. Even as many economies have struggled in the wake of the twin shocks of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Taiwan achieved steadfast economic growth from 2020 through 2022. The stability of Taiwan’s growth has been all the more remarkable amid the rapid and volatile reconfiguration of global supply chains against the looming backdrop of escalating United States-China tensions. Like South Korea, Taiwan has a heavily export-oriented economy that is also centered chiefly on semiconductors. Taiwan is also similarly dependent on China for both its industries and its trade but has managed to maintain a stable trade balance thus far. Compared to South Korea, the Taiwanese economy is also a more favorable host for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), which contribute significantly to the nation’s competitiveness. The Taiwanese semiconductor industry boasts an evenly balanced ecosystem of chip design, manufacturing, packaging, and testing. The nation’s multiple science parks, led by the one at Hsinchu, are connected by open innovation networks through which researchers can move freely. The political stability of Taiwan has also buttressed its competitive industries, providing effective visions for new industry growth and timely legislative support, notably the most recent law on semiconductors. Taiwan’s self-positioning in trade with China and policy centered on important manufacturing industries, including semiconductors, carries many lessons for South Korea. It is time for Korea to analyze Taiwan’s success and ascertain what makes its Taiwanese competitors so competitive and successful. Thank you for reading this abstract of a report from the Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade! Visit us on YouTube: Visit us on Instagram: Visit our website:
    Keywords: Taiwan; Taiwanese economy; exports; semiconductors; chips; supply chains; export competitiveness; innovation; open innovation; economic security; US-China conflict; manufacturing; manufacturing competitiveness; manufacturing innovation; innovation clusters
    JEL: F02 F10 F13 F18 F23 F51 F52 O11 O14 O24 O25 O32 O38
    Date: 2023–05–31
  7. By: Jana Jabbour (Sciences Po - Sciences Po)
    Abstract: L'année 2022 et le début de l'année 2023 ont été marqués par un activisme diplomatique sans précédent de la part de la Turquie. De la guerre en Ukraine à la crise syrienne, en passant par les tensions en Méditerranée orientale et la candidature de la Suède et de la Finlande à l'OTAN, aucun dossier de politique internationale n'a échappé à Ankara. L'engagement sur tous les fronts du président Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, son omniprésence sur la scène régionale et internationale ne relèvent pourtant pas du hasard : confrontés à une situation économique et sociale dégradée et fragilisés à l'intérieur, le Président turc et son Parti de la justice et du développement (AKP) misent sur la politique étrangère pour remporter la victoire aux élections présidentielle et législatives du 14 mai prochain.
    Keywords: Turquie, vie politique, élections, politique étrangère, diplomatie
    Date: 2023–04–01
  8. By: Fabien Clive Ntonga Efoua (FSEG - Faculté de Sciences Econonomiques et de Gestion - Yaoundé II - Université de Yaoundé II, CEDIMES - CEDIMES - Centre d'Etudes sur le Développement International et les Mouvements Economiques et Sociaux , ERMASMOP-Afrique - 'Equipe de recherche en marketing, stratégie et management des organisations publique-Afrique, CEREG - University of Yaounde 2); Etienne Inédit Blaise Tsomb Tsomb (FSEGA - Faculté des Sciences Economiques et de Gestion Appliquée de l'Université de Douala)
    Abstract: The goal of this paper is to highlight the mechanisms through which shocks on commodities can affect the external stability of the CFA issued by the BEAC (apprehended through the External Coverage Rate of the currency - ECR). The choice of variables, namely: the ECR, the profits from the exploitation of natural resources on the one hand, the external public debt and inflation (control variables) on the other is made with reference to the literature, the financial history (crisis of the 1980s and financial turbulences of the years 2015-2019) and the current events (the Great Lockdown and the Russia-Ukraine war). The econometric strategy consists of a panel-VAR specification on which various diagnostic tests were applied (stationarity, number of lags, stability of the model and robustness). Our results show that shocks on commodities (including those on control variables) weaken the foreign exchange reserves dynamics in CEMAC. However, they do not compromise the credibility of the BEAC in the short term. Based on this, we make some policy recommendations.
    Abstract: Le but de cet article est de mettre en évidence les facteurs de vulnérabilité de la stabilité externe du XAF (appréhendée à travers le Taux de Couverture Extérieur de la monnaie-TCE). Il s'agit plus précisément de mettre en exergue les canaux directs et indirects à travers lesquels des chocs sur les produits de base peuvent affecter la stabilité du taux de change du CFA émis par la BEAC. Le choix des variables à savoir: les TCE et les bénéfices tirés de l'exploitation des ressources naturelles d'une part, la dette publique extérieure et inflation (variables de contrôle) d'autre part, est opéré en se référant à la fois à la littérature, à l'histoire financière (crise des années 1980 et turbulences financières des années 2015-2019) et à l'actualité (Grand Confinement et conflit russo-ukrainien). La stratégie économétrique consiste en une spécification panel-VAR sur lequel divers tests de diagnostics ont été appliqués (stationnarité, nombre de retards, stabilité du modèle et robustesse). Nos résultats nous permettent de tirer la conclusion selon laquelle des chocs sur les produits de base (y compris sur les variables de contrôle) fragilisent la dynamique des réserves de change, sans toutefois remettre en question la crédibilité de la BEAC à faire face à ses engagements sur le court terme. Partant de là, nous formulons quelques recommandations de politique économique.
    Keywords: Money external stability, Foreign exchange reserves, ECR, CEMAC, Panel-VAR, E5, G01, N1, N2, Stabilité extérieure de la monnaie, Réserves de change, TCE, panel-VAR, Money external stability Foreign exchange reserves ECR CEMAC Panel-VAR Classification JEL : C58 C23 E44 E5 G01 N1 N2, Panel-VAR Classification JEL : C58, C23, E44
    Date: 2023–10–06
  9. By: Klingebiel, Stephan
    Abstract: Die systemische Konfrontation zwischen China und den USA, die russische Invasion der Ukraine, aber auch die Machtübernahme durch putschende Militärs u.a. im Niger zeigen: Das Umfeld für globale Kooperationsanstrengungen ist deutlich schwieriger geworden. Akteure im Globalen Süden sind in geopolitischen Konflikten nicht mehr nur Teil-nehmende am Rande, sondern Gestalter. Sie sind stark umworben durch westliche Länder und Russland. Zugleich streben insbesondere China und Indien Führungsrollen als Sprecher für den Globalen Süden an. Folgende Punkte sind dabei von besonderer Bedeutung: (1) Die Veränderungen des internationalen Systems haben dem Globalen Süden als Gruppe (trotz der enormen Unterschiede der Akteure in dieser Gruppe) einen neuen Identitätsschub verliehen - ähnlich dem Westen. Es ist bemerkenswert, dass diese Blockbildung in Nord / Süd andere mögliche Gemeinsamkeiten weniger stark zum Tragen kommen lässt. Dies gilt vor allem für den bislang wenig erfolgreichen Versuch, die Identifikation offener demokratischer Systeme als Zugehörigkeitsmerkmal zu stärken. Für viele Debatten und Allianzen ist die Identifikation 'Globaler Norden / Süden' prägend. Die Nord-Süd-Lagerbildung ist zum Auffinden von Lösungen nicht hilfreich. Ansätze, verfestigten Blockbildungen entgegenzuwirken und wirk-same Austausch- und Verständigungsformate zu schaffen, sind daher wichtig. (2) Die bestehende internationale Ordnung ist aus Sicht südlicher Akteure ein zutiefst ungerechtes System, welches vorrangig die Interessen des Westens und insbesondere die der USA schützt. Politische Ange-bote des Westens, die nicht wirklich zu strukturellen Veränderungen führen, dürften kaum Interesse im Globalen Süden hervorrufen und Gegenentwürfe - seien sie von China mit seinem Führungsanspruch für den Globalen Süden oder Russland - begünstigen. (3) Grundsätzlich besitzt Entwicklungspolitik der OECD-Akteure wichtiges Potential, die Neuausrichtung der Beziehungen mit dem Globalen Süden mitzugestalten. Das Politikfeld ist einerseits ein Ausweis internationaler Glaubwürdigkeit (u.a. Erfüllung internationaler Verpflichtungen) und andererseits ein Ansatz, mit dem überhaupt an der Bearbeitung internationaler Probleme gearbeitet werden kann. (4) Westliche Entwicklungspolitik dürfte sich angesichts vielfältiger Spannungen in Entwicklungsregionen weiteren schwierigen Situationen mit Eskalations- und Misserfolgsrisiken (wie etwa Niger und Afghanistan) gegenüberstehen. Entwicklungspolitik sollte noch bewusster in Strategie und Handeln den geopolitischen Kontext reflektieren. Der prägende geopolitische Kontext birgt die Gefahr, dass die originäre entwicklungs-politische Aufgabe - nachhaltige Entwicklung der Partnerländer - überlagert wird. (5) Insgesamt sollte es ein wichtiges Anliegen sein zu überdenken, wie die internationale Lastenteilung für Entwicklungs- und Klimafinanzierungsagenden organisiert ist. Hier gilt es, sowohl die Akteure aus dem Globalen Norden als auch die aus dem Globalen Süden in den Blick zu nehmen.
    Keywords: Geopolitik, Geoökonomie, Entwicklungspolitik, Entwicklungszusammenarbeit, Globaler Süden
    Date: 2023
  10. By: Hendrik Mahlkow; Joschka Wanner
    Abstract: International trade is highly imbalanced both in terms of values and in terms of embodied carbon emissions. We show that the persistent current value trade imbalance patterns contribute to a higher level of global emissions compared to a world of balanced international trade. Specifically, we build a Ricardian quantitative trade model including sectoral input-output linkages, trade imbalances, fossil fuel extraction, and carbon emissions from fossil fuel combustion and use this framework to simulate counterfactual changes to countries’ trade balances. For individual countries, the emission effects of removing their trade imbalances depend on the carbon intensities of their production and consumption patterns, as well as on their fossil resource abundance. Eliminating the Russian trade surplus and the US trade deficit would lead to the largest environmental benefits in terms of lower global emissions. Globally, the simultaneous removal of all trade imbalances would lower world carbon emissions by 0.9 percent or 295 million tons of carbon dioxide.
    Keywords: carbon emissions, international trade, gravity
    JEL: F14 F18 Q56
    Date: 2023
  11. By: Timur Gareev; Irina Peker
    Abstract: This study contributes to the ongoing debate regarding the balance between quality and quantity in research productivity and publication activity. Using empirical regional knowledge production functions, we establish a significant correlation between R&D spending and research output, specifically publication productivity, while controlling for patenting activity and socioeconomic factors. Our focus is on the dilemma of research quantity versus quality, which is analysed in the context of regional thematic specialization using spatial lags. When designing policies and making forecasts, it is important to consider the quality of research measured by established indicators. In this study, we examine the dual effect of research quality on publication activity. We identify two groups of quality factors: those related to the quality of journals and those related to the impact of publications. On average, these factors have different influences on quantitative measures. The quality of journals shows a negative relationship with quantity, indicating that as journal quality increases, the number of publications decreases. On the other hand, the impact of publications can be approximated by an inverse parabolic shape, with a positive decreasing slope within a common range of values. This duality in the relationship between quality factors and quantitative measures may explain some of the significant variations in conclusions found in the literature. We compare several models that explore factors influencing publication activity using a balanced panel dataset of Russian regions from 2009 to 2021. Additionally, we propose a novel approach using thematic scientometric parameters as a special type of proximity measure between regions in thematic space. Incorporating spatial spillovers in thematic space allows us to account for potential cross-sectional dependence in regional data.
    Date: 2023–11
  12. By: Sharofiddinov Husniddin; Moinul Islam; Koji Kotani
    Abstract: Land reforms have been reported to impact agriculture, economic performances and indicators of countries along with water users and allocations. However, little is known about how land fragmentation (consolidation) in land-reform processes affects water availability. This research investigates a question “how the number of water users is related with irrigation water allocation in land reforms, †hypothesizing that an increase in the number of water users through land fragmentation poses negative threats on the water allocation through a mediation of irrigation types. We conduct empirical analyses for irrigation water demand and availability, utilizing panel data for 25 years from 13 districts in Sugd province, Tajikistan. Two main results are obtained: First, the irrigated areas are main drivers that increase irrigation water demand in comparison to any other factors, and the impact by pump irrigated areas is approximately 1.6 times as large as that by gravity irrigated areas. Second, the increasing number of water users under land fragmentation in Tajikistan tends to reduce irrigation water availability, and the magnitude in reduction under pump irrigation is more significant than that under gravity irrigation. Overall, this research establishes that irrigations and the number of water users through land reforms matter for a change in the water allocation, and the interactions particularly pose the idiosyncratic threats on the irrigation water availability. Thus, it is advisable to reconsider ongoing land-reform policies considering possible negative externality of land fragmentation as well as irrigation for food security and water sustainability in agriculture.
    Keywords: Land reform, irrigation water, number of water users, pump irrigation, gravity irrigation
    Date: 2023–09
  13. By: Mengqi Wang; Mrs. Swarnali A Hannan
    Abstract: The paper builds a unique industry-level dataset by combining Mexico’s nationally sourced inputoutput data (INEGI) with cross-country sources (WIOD, UN Comtrade). Using this dataset to exploit higher supply linkages across a larger number of industries than what is available in cross-country sources, the paper estimates the trade diversion effect on Mexico’s exports to the U.S. from two episodes, with a focus on the first: the U.S.-China trade tension in 2018 and the U.S. sanctions on Russia in 2014. Difference-in-differences, local projections and few other empirical methodologies are used. For the first episode, the paper finds higher trade diversion effects than estimates in literature. Output tariff plays an important role, and there is some evidence of a positive impact through downstream tariffs. The effects are stronger when nationally sourced input-output data is used compared to those derived from cross-country sources. Importantly, the magnitude of trade diversion across industries does not depend on Mexico’s industry-level trade exposure to the U.S., but rather on the U.S. tariff changes on Chinese goods, the decrease in imports from China, product substitutability with Chinese products, and (weakly) on Mexico’s GVC integration. Similarly, for the second episode, the paper finds positive trade diversion effects. Overall, the findings suggest that trade diversion effect might be higher than previously thought and the proper accounting of dataset and supply linkages makes a difference.
    Keywords: input-output linkages; trade diversion; U.S.-China trade tensions
    Date: 2023–11–10
  14. By: Costas Arkolakis; Fabian Eckert; Rowan Shi
    Abstract: We introduce a general quantifiable framework to study the location decisions of multinational firms. In the model, firms choose in which locations to pay the fixed costs of setting up production, taking into account potential complementarities among production locations. The firm’s location choice problem is combinatorial because the marginal value of an individual production location depends on its complete set of production sites. We develop a computational method to solve such problems and aggregate optimal decisions across heterogeneous firms. We use our calibrated model to study Brexit and the recent sanctions war with Russia. In both counterfactuals, changes in the location decisions of multinationals are driving real wage responses.
    JEL: F12 F21 F6
    Date: 2023–11
  15. By: Céline Antonin (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)
    Abstract: L'économie allemande peine à sortir du marasme : entre le deuxième trimestre 2022 et le deuxième trimestre 2023, le PIB a reculé de 0, 1 %. Au deuxième trimestre 2023, l'Allemagne dépasse à peine son niveau de production d'avant-Covid et se situe à la traîne par rapport aux États-Unis et aux grands pays de l'Union européenne. Comment l'expliquer ? En grande partie par l'effet de l'inflation : depuis la crise ukrainienne, les prix ont augmenté plus rapidement en Allemagne que dans les grands pays de l'UE et aux États-Unis. Les salaires nominaux n'ayant pas progressé de façon aussi rapide, la consommation privée a stagné-elle se situe, au deuxième trimestre 2023, encore 2 % en dessous de son niveau pré-Covid. Par ailleurs, malgré une baisse en 2023, les prix de l'énergie restent plus élevés qu'avant la crise ukrainienne. Or, l'un des piliers du modèle industriel allemand était l'accès à une énergie bon marché. Désormais, la production allemande intensive en énergie n'est plus compétitive, ce qui crée un choc structurel-s'ajoutant aux chocs préexistant dans certains secteurs comme l'automobile. [Premier paragraphe]
    Keywords: situation conjoncturelle, inflation, économie allemande
    Date: 2023–10
  16. By: Miguel Ángel García Díaz
    Abstract: La paralización de la actividad económica en respuesta a la pandemia del Covid 19 y las ayudas para hacer frente al fuerte aumento de la inflación asociado a la invasión de Ucrania por Rusia, han obligado a utilizar de forma extensiva políticas de gasto público en un intento de proteger a la ciudadanía de los efectos negativos de estos shocks sobre su renta y calidad de vida. Esta evolución al alza del gasto público ha venido acompañada de distintas estrategias sobre los ingresos públicos que han afectado al saldo de las cuentas públicas de los países de la Unión Europea.
    Date: 2023–11
  17. By: -
    Abstract: En marzo de 2020, la Organización Mundial de la Salud (OMS)declaró el brote de COVID-19 como una pandemia mundial. Desde entonces, el mundo ha sido testigo de cómo una crisis de salud puede contribuir a las consecuencias económicas mundiales y subrayar las desigualdades socioeconómicas que van desde el acceso a la atención médica, la tecnología e internet hasta el empleo y la educación. El conflicto entre la Federación de Rusia y Ucrania ha puesto en peligro aún más la recuperación del mundo, mientras que muchas leyes, prácticas y políticas ambientales establecidas antes de la pandemia se han suspendido o se ha modificado su aplicación durante los últimos dos años. Lamentablemente, los diez países miembros del Proyecto de Integración y Desarrollo de Mesoamérica (PM), Belice, Colombia, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Honduras, Guatemala, México, Nicaragua, Panamá y la República Dominicana, no han sido la excepción a tal predicamento. Si bien las ramificaciones de la pandemia por COVID-19 y la presión adicional impuesta por el conflicto entre la Federación de Rusia y Ucrania aún se están consolidando, es importante comprender que los países tienen la oportunidad de participar en una recuperación transformadora que sea sostenible, resiliente e inclusiva.
    Date: 2023–10–12

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