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on Confederation of Independent States |
| By: | Atin Basuchoudhary (Virginia Military Institute); Andreas Freytag (Friedrich Schiller University, Jena; and University of Stellenbosch, and CESifo Research Network, and STIAS); Troy Siemers (Virginia Military Institute) |
| Abstract: | This paper offers an analytical narrative based on an assurance game with two separate populations in an evolutionary setting. In our model, Donors and Recipients are two populations; let us call them Europe and Ukraine. The donor population has two types. A proportion of this population wants to promote a Marshall Plan-type model for the recipient state, and another prefers isolationism. A proportion of the population of the recipient state also intends to coordinate a Marshall Plan-type economic integration. In contrast, others prefer foreign aid but view further integration as a violation of sovereignty (or, with Ukraine, may be afraid of further Russian attacks from this integration). Marshall plan type coordination provides the highest payoffs through, e.g., the peace dividend, better institutions in Ukraine, widened European integration trade links, or global financial integration. Coordination is costly because it requires substantial institutional change on both sides. We use simulations to track outcomes given that European support for Ukraine and Ukrainian desire for aid may be endogenous. Further, we show how these endogenous outcomes respond to political shocks in Europe that affect European support for Ukraine and implicitly the lack of support for Ukraine. |
| Keywords: | Institutional Transfer, Institutional Coordination, Evolutionary Game Theory, Ukraine War, Foreign Aid |
| JEL: | P41 C73 |
| Date: | 2023–11–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jrp:jrpwrp:2023-017&r=cis |
| By: | Jacob Funk Kirkegaard (Peterson Institute for International Economics) |
| Abstract: | The European Union managed to overcome Russian energy blackmail in 2022 and used the political motivation from this national security crisis to accelerate its decarbonization process. The planned dramatic increase in the scope of carbon pricing in the European Union can herald the total decarbonization of sectors covered in the EU Emissions Trading System and expand into important new ones. The interplay between the EU carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) and the US Inflation Reduction Act may cause transatlantic trade friction. But these two approaches could also offer a path to greater cooperation. Kirkegaard outlines proposals for how both the European Union and the United States can implement additional policies to secure their comprehensive decarbonization. |
| Date: | 2023–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iie:pbrief:pb23-13&r=cis |
| By: | Wei-Xing Zhou; Yun-Shi Dai; Kiet Tuan Duong; Peng-Fei Dai |
| Abstract: | The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict between two major agricultural powers has posed significant threats and challenges to the global food system and world food security. Focusing on the impact of the conflict on the global agricultural market, we propose a new analytical framework for tail dependence, and combine the Copula-CoVaR method with the ARMA-GARCH-skewed Student-t model to examine the tail dependence structure and extreme risk spillover between agricultural futures and spots over the pre- and post-outbreak periods. Our results indicate that the tail dependence structures in the futures-spot markets of soybean, maize, wheat, and rice have all reacted to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Furthermore, the outbreak of the conflict has intensified risks of the four agricultural markets in varying degrees, with the wheat market being affected the most. Additionally, all the agricultural futures markets exhibit significant downside and upside risk spillovers to their corresponding spot markets before and after the outbreak of the conflict, whereas the strengths of these extreme risk spillover effects demonstrate significant asymmetries at the directional (downside versus upside) and temporal (pre-outbreak versus post-outbreak) levels. |
| Date: | 2023–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2310.16850&r=cis |
| By: | Zubarev, Andrey (Зубарев, Андрей) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Kirillova, Maria (Кириллова, Мария) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this research is to analyze the impact of external shocks on the Russian economy and build forecasts for the dynamic of Russian macroeconomic variables within the framework of a global vector autoregression model. In this study, special attention is focused on including channels for transmitting not only real but also financial shocks into the model by using different weights for aggregating variables. Also, the model for the Russian economy has been expanded by including not only variables of the real sector, but also indicators of the inflation rate and interest rate. The results provide impulse response functions for Russian indicators in response to a US interest rate shock. |
| Keywords: | external shocks, financial linkages, trade linkages, global autoregression |
| JEL: | C32 E17 F47 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w20220275&r=cis |
| By: | Grishina, Irina (Гришина, Ирина) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Polynev, Andrey (Полынев, Андрей) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Filatov, Artemiy (Филатов, Артемий) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The relevance of the work is justified by the fact that it is devoted to the rapidly developing sector of the economy associated with the needs of the older generation. The growth of this sector is associated with the global trend of population aging. The subject of the study is the comparative level of the quality of life of senior citizens and the potential for the development of the longevity economy in the regions of Russia. Purpose of work: a comprehensive study of the factors and evaluation of the prospects for the development of the longevity economy in the regions of Russia and development of priority areas of regional policy. To achieve the goal, the following tasks were undertaken: analysis of scientific approaches to the study of the factors of formation and assessment of the prospects of the «longevity economy at the national and regional levels in the framework of foreign and domestic experience; development of an approach to a comprehensive assessment of factors and prospects for the development of the longevity economy in the regions of the Russia, taking into account the specifics of national and regional statistics; analysis of demographic, social and economic factors in the formation of the longevity economy and assessment of the prospects for its development in the regions of the Russia; a typology of the regions of the Russia in accordance with the assessment of the prospects for the development of the longevity economy; development of proposals on the priorities of regional policy, taking into account the course on import substitution in the conditions of sanctions pressure and the obtained estimates of the prospects for the development of the longevity economy in the regions of Russia. The scientific novelty of the work is determined by the justification of the typology of Russian regions on the basis of the developed integral quality of the older generation life index and the prospects for the development of the longevity economy. Research methods applied: system, factor and statistical analysis of sectoral development, index method, etc. Based on the application of the author's approach, several Russian regions that need additional federal support to improve the older generation life quality and to develop a longevity economy were identified. Priority measures of regional policy have been developed for such regions. The application of the authors’ approach is recommended for information and methodological support of the state regional policy of Russia and increasing of its effectiveness. |
| Keywords: | longevity economy, senior citizens, regions of Russia, comprehensive assessment, quality of life, methods of analysis, national development goals |
| JEL: | R11 R12 R13 R58 |
| Date: | 2022–11–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:w20220272&r=cis |
| By: | Charles M. Kahn |
| Abstract: | Russia’s recent decree to 'unfriendly' buyers of its natural gas may not make a great deal of difference in economic terms. |
| Keywords: | Russian invasion of Ukraine; natural gas; Russian ruble |
| Date: | 2022–04–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:l00001:94129&r=cis |
| By: | Samuel Jordan-Wood; Christopher J. Neely |
| Abstract: | Since the two countries are global suppliers of raw materials, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine triggered a commodity price shock. Which stocks were most sensitive to it? |
| Keywords: | Russian invasion of Ukraine; stock prices; commodities |
| Date: | 2022–06–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:l00001:94413&r=cis |
| By: | Jason Dunn; Fernando Leibovici |
| Abstract: | Skeptics have raised questions about the future of globalization. Could divisions over the war provide insights into the strength of global trade ties? |
| Keywords: | globalization; Russian invasion of Ukraine; global trade |
| Date: | 2022–03–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:l00001:94124&r=cis |
| By: | Praew Grittayaphong; Paulina Restrepo-Echavarria |
| Abstract: | A study that examined sovereign risk among oil-exporting countries provides insights into why sanctions may not deter Russia, a major oil-exporter. |
| Keywords: | sovereign risk; oil; Russian invasion of Ukraine |
| Date: | 2022–08–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:l00001:94674&r=cis |
| By: | Wrobel, Ralph |
| Abstract: | Since February 2022 - when Russia invaded the Ukraine - the geopolitical situation in the South Caucasus changed dramatically. On the one hand, EU sanctions on Russia made the "Middle Corridor" of the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative through the South Caucasus more attractive for China and Europe, on the other hand the "protective power" Russia is weakened by the war and the Western sanctions leaving a vacuum of power in the South Caucasus. As a result, Azerbaijan was able to reconquer the region Nagorno-Karabakh in September 2023 within a few days, only. Therefore, the region is still not more an unassailable Russian "backyard" or "sphere of interest" but place of a new "great game" of the main powers in the world. Beside Russia losing power - a slight rise of China can be observed while the West - U.S. and the EU - is still neglecting the region. Only Türkiye became a new active geopolitical player in the region. This may - beside all tragedy for the people of Nagorno-Karabakh - bring some "never ending conflicts" in the region to an end and may open up new opportunities for Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan to develop better economically in the near future. |
| Keywords: | Geopolitics, South Caucasus, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, EU, Belt & Road Initiative |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:opodis:279777&r=cis |
| By: | Ying-Hui Shao; Yan-Hong Yang |
| Abstract: | Drawing inspiration from the significant impact of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and the recent COVID-19 pandemic on global financial markets, this study conducts a thorough analysis of three key crude oil futures markets: WTI, Brent, and Shanghai (SC). Employing the visibility graph (VG) methodology, we examine both static and dynamic characteristics using daily and high-frequency data. We identified a clear power-law decay in most VG degree distributions and highlighted the pronounced clustering tendencies within crude oil futures VGs. Our results also confirm an inverse correlation between clustering coefficient and node degree and further reveal that all VGs not only adhere to the small-world property but also exhibit intricate assortative mixing. Through the time-varying characteristics of VGs, we found that WTI and Brent demonstrate aligned behavior, while the SC market, with its unique trading mechanics, deviates. The 5-minute VGs' assortativity coefficient provides a deeper understanding of these markets' reactions to the pandemic and geopolitical events. Furthermore, the differential responses during the COVID-19 and Russia-Ukraine conflict underline the unique sensitivities of each market to global disruptions. Overall, this research offers profound insights into the structure, dynamics, and adaptability of these essential commodities markets in the face of worldwide challenges. |
| Date: | 2023–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2310.18903&r=cis |
| By: | Fabio Ashtar Telarico (University of Ljubljana) |
| Abstract: | Studies built on dependency and world-system theory using network approaches have showed that international trade is structured into clusters of 'core'; and 'peripheral'; countries performing distinct functions. However, few have used these methods to investigate how sanctions affect the position of the countries involved in the capitalist world-economy. Yet, this topic has acquired pressing relevance due to the emergence of economic warfare as a key geopolitical weapon since the 1950s. And even more so in light of the preeminent role that sanctions have played in the US and their allies' response to the Russian-Ukrainian war. Applying several clustering techniques designed for complex and temporal networks, this paper shows that a shift in the pattern of commerce away from sanctioning countries and towards neutral/friendly ones. Additionally, there are suggestions that these shifts may lead to the creation of an alternative 'core' that interacts with the world-economy's periphery bypassing traditional 'core' countries such as EU member States and the US. |
| Abstract: | Les études fondées sur la théorie de la dépendance et du système mondial utilisant des approches de réseau ont montré que le commerce international est structuré en groupes de pays "centraux" et "périphériques" remplissant des fonctions distinctes. Cependant, peu d'entre elles ont utilisé ces méthodes pour étudier la manière dont les sanctions affectent la position des pays impliqués dans l'économie mondiale capitaliste. Pourtant, ce sujet est devenu d'une actualité brûlante en raison de l'émergence de la guerre économique en tant qu'arme géopolitique clé depuis les années 1950. Et ce d'autant plus que les sanctions ont joué un rôle prépondérant dans la réponse des États-Unis et de leurs alliés à la guerre russo-ukrainienne. En appliquant plusieurs techniques de regroupement conçues pour les réseaux complexes et temporels, cet article montre que la structure du commerce s'éloigne des pays sanctionnés et se rapproche des pays neutres ou amis. En outre, il est suggéré que ces changements peuvent conduire à la création d'un "noyau" alternatif qui interagit avec la périphérie de l'économie mondiale en contournant les pays du "noyau" traditionnel tels que les États membres de l'UE et les États-Unis. |
| Abstract: | Исследования, построенные на основе теории зависимости и теории мировых систем с использованием сетевых подходов, показали, что международная торговля структурирована на кластеры "ядра" и "периферии" - стран, выполняющих различные функции.Однако мало кто использовал эти методы для изучения того, как санкции влияют на положение стран-участниц в капиталистической мир-экономике.Между тем эта тема приобрела особую актуальность в связи с появлением с 1950-х годов экономической войны как одного из основных видов геополитического оружия.И тем более в свете той важнейшей роли, которую санкции сыграли в реакции США и их союзников на российско-украинскую войну. Применяя несколько методов кластеризации, разработанных для сложных и временных сетей, в данной работе показано, что в структуре торговли происходит смещение от стран, применяющих санкции, в сторону нейтральных/дружественных стран.Кроме того, высказываются предположения, что эти сдвиги могут привести к созданию альтернативного "ядра", взаимодействующего с периферией мировой экономики в обход традиционных стран "ядра", таких как государства - члены ЕС и США. |
| Abstract: | Студије засноване на теоријизависности и светског система користећимрежне приступе показале су да јемеђународна трговина структурисана укластере ‘језгра' и ‘периферних' земаља којеобављају различите функције. Међутим малоњих је користило ове методе да би истражилокако санкцијe утичу на положај земаљаукључених у капиталистичку светскуекономију. Ипак ова тема је постала хитназбог појаве економског сукоба као кључноггеополитичког оружја 1950-их и још више усветлу превасходне улоге коју су санкцијеодиграле у одговору САД и њихових савезникана руско-украјински рат. Примењујућинеколико техника груписања дизајнираних засложене и временске мреже, овај рад показујепомак у обрасцу трговине од земаља којесанкционишу ка неутралним/пријатељскимземљама. Поред тога постоје сугестије да овепромене могу довести до стварањаалтернативног „језгра" које је у интеракцијиса периферијом светске економије заобилазећитрадиционалне „језгро" земље као што судржаве чланице ЕУ и САД. |
| Keywords: | International trade, Dynamic networks, Blockmodeling, Russia, Iran, World-system theory, Sanctions |
| Date: | 2023–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04238902&r=cis |
| By: | Justin R. Pierce; David Yu |
| Abstract: | Globalization increased steadily for decades following the end of World War II, with trade as a percentage of global GDP rising from 20 percent in the early post-war period to nearly 60 percent just before the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) (Aiyar et al., 2023). Since the GFC, however, this move toward globalization has stalled, and recent events—U.S.-China trade tensions, the Covid-19 pandemic, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine—have raised the prospect of a reversal. |
| Date: | 2023–11–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfn:2023-11-03&r=cis |
| By: | Paola Amoruso; Massimo Mariani; Domenico Frascati; Francesco d'Ercole |
| Abstract: | After the crisis due to the pandemic, 2022 has generally been characterized by recovery of construction sector; however there has been recorded a constant upward trend in prices of building materials. The Italian government, with the Ministerial Decree of the Ministry of Infrastructure of 12th May 2022, confirms the substantial increase in building prices in the last year in Italy. The main causes of this trend have been identified in particular geopolitical events as the war in Ukraine and the rising cost of energy. In the light of the above, various measures aimed at countering the substantial increase in the materials of construction products have been implemented through various regulatory changes. The present research aims to analyze real estate market behavior characterizing the Italian context relating it to price trend of building materials. The main practical implication of this research is to investigate the variation of house prices, distinguishing new buildings from existing ones, compared to the cost of raw materials, in order to forecast the consequence of geopolitical events on residential market. |
| Keywords: | House Prices; price building materials; real estate; Residential Market |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2023–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2023_104&r=cis |
| By: | Sim, Soonhyung (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade); Kim, Mi Jung (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade) |
| Abstract: | In 2022, South Korea achieved an unprecedented milestone in defense exports, as orders surged to an impressive USD 17.3 billion, a record- breaking achievement in its history as an arms exporter. This remarkable growth can be attributed to growing global defense expenditures in the wake of the Russia-Ukraine war and the increased demand in Europe. The military aid to Ukraine created shortage of defense products, which has further increased demand. The Korean defense industry has capitalized on this opportunity, bolstered by its competitive edge in swift product delivery, a well-established mass production infrastructure, and an outstanding price-to-quality ratio. Of note is the surge in demand for Korean arms from Eastern European nations, which has propelled the country into the ranks of the world’s top five defense exporters. Future export prospects are promising. Global defense spending is expected to continue its upward trajectory amid the escalating geopolitical crisis in Europe, despite the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and slowing economic growth. Germany, for instance, has decided to invest EUR 100 billion in a special defense fund to modernize and expand its armed forces. Furthermore, defense spending as a percentage of GDP in Eastern Europe and the three Baltic states is poised to exceed the NATO requirement of two percent by 2024. Should the current trend persist, Korea could eventually rank among the world’s top four defense exporters. However, achieving this goal will necessitate a nuanced and refined policy approach. Conducting a comprehensive assessment of the economic impact of growing defense exports is the first step toward positioning the defense industry as a driver of growth. In this paper, I project changes in defense sales and employment under the assumption that the value of annual export orders eventually reaches USD 20 billion. Furthermore, I offer a set of policy recommendations aimed at propelling Korea into the upper echelons of the world’s defense exporters and harnessing the full potential of the burgeoning defense industry as an engine of economic prosperity. Thank you for reading this abstract of a report from the Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade! Visit us on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q36v30l5CV0 Visit us on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/worldkiet/ Visit our website: http://www.kiet.re.kr/en |
| Keywords: | defense sector; defense industry; defense spending; defense manufacturing; defense contracting; arms exports; weapons exports; Russia-Ukraine war; defense sector employment; arms trade; manufacturing; Korea |
| JEL: | F17 F52 L64 O38 |
| Date: | 2023–10–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kieter:2023_023&r=cis |
| By: | Kim, Sungjim (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade) |
| Abstract: | Demand for drones continues to increase in the wake of the boom in contact-free products and services following the pandemic. There are new transportation and delivery services using drones now hitting the market, such as the delivery of prescription drugs to patients’ homes. The military drone and anti-drone industries are also growing amid ongoing global conflicts such the Ukraine-Russia war. The drone industry is a leading convergence industry, combining various Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) technologies. Convergent industries are expected to exert numerous technical and economic ripple effects through the creation of new lines of business leveraging ICT technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI), telecommunications, and big data. Currently, Chinese firm DJI is the world’s preeminent drone manufacturer, with a 70 percent share of the market. Other major players in the drone service area include American tech giants Alphabet (with its Google Wing service) and Amazon, as well as supermarket powerhouse Wal-Mart. These firms are competing in the delivery services segment of the drone market. Korea, however, has no global presence in the drone market, due to the small size and sales of its domestic drone manufacturers. Korea also lags behind leading countries in the drone services segment of the market, and Korea is currently focusing on various pilot projects involving drones. In this article, I analyze the status of the global drone market and survey the Korean drone industry, identifying future opportunities, threats, strengths, and weaknesses. In addition, I propose directions for policy that could help the domestic drone industry achieve a global presence. Thank you for reading this abstract of a report from the Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade! Visit us on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q36v30l5CV0 Visit us on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/worldkiet/ Visit our website: http://www.kiet.re.kr/en |
| Keywords: | drone industry; drone manufacturing; drone services; drone technology; drone delivery; manufacturing; Korea |
| JEL: | L11 L52 L62 L81 L87 L93 |
| Date: | 2023–10–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kieter:2023_024&r=cis |
| By: | Alan Wm. Wolff (Peterson Institute for International Economics); Joseph W. Glauber (International Food Policy Research Institute) (International Food Policy Research Institute) |
| Abstract: | Russia's invasion of Ukraine, a major supplier of grain to the Middle East and Africa, has triggered deep concerns over access to affordable food across the globe. The alarming rise in food insecurity across the world due to conflicts makes it increasingly urgent to set ground rules for sharing food in global markets and getting food to places most in need to avoid starvation and famine. The most glaring and relevant gap in the rules of the world trading system pertains to sharing food in times of scarcity. The authors recommend using the World Trade Organization's (WTO) long-standing accords on agriculture as a basis to provide guidelines for supplying food to global markets, especially areas in need. The most obvious shortcoming in the rules is that WTO members are largely free to restrict exports of food. The WTO rules need to be updated to take into account climate change, extreme weather, military conflicts, pandemics, and other factors that interfere with food production. The WTO can specify factors that an exporting country must take into account when imposing an export restriction on food, and it can require consultations to deal with severe disruptions in world food trade. It can also serve to mediate the interests of food exporters and importers in enhancing food security. |
| Date: | 2023–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iie:pbrief:pb23-15&r=cis |
| By: | Sokolovska, Olena |
| Abstract: | Las cuestiones de la cooperación entre los países BRICS cobran relevancia en las condiciones geopolíticas actuales, especialmente en el marco de las sanciones económicas antirrusas, con el fin de garantizar el desarrollo de tecnologías críticas, basadas principalmente en metales de tierras raras. El objetivo del estudio es determinar las tendencias clave de la cooperación entre Rusia y Brasil en la producción de metales de tierras raras. Para lograr el objetivo, investigamos el estado actual y las tendencias clave en el mercado global de elementos de tierras raras y la posición de Rusia y Brasil. Analizamos los principales riesgos ambientales de la producción y procesamiento de tierras raras. Los resultados del análisis nos permitieron concluir que la estrategia de cooperación más relevante en las condiciones geopolíticas actuales es centrarse en la cooperación en R&D, en particular en el procesamiento y eliminación de desechos de minerales y rocas estériles como fuente clave de riesgo ambiental en la minería de tierras raras. |
| Keywords: | tierras raras, Rusia, Brasil, cooperación, sanciones económicas, riesgos ambientales |
| JEL: | F51 Q55 |
| Date: | 2023–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:118998&r=cis |
| By: | Bichler, Shimshon; Nitzan, Jonathan |
| Abstract: | The 2023 war between Hamas and Israel elicits many different explanations. As with previous regional hostilities, here too, the pundits and commentators have numerous overlapping processes to draw on - from the struggle between the Zionist and Palestinian national movements, to the deep hostility between the Rabbinate and Islamic churches, to the many conflicts between Israel and Arab/Muslim states, the contentions between the declining superpowers (United States and Russia) and their rising contenders (like China, Iran, Turkey), the rift between western and eastern cultures, and so on. The experts also highlight the growing importance of local militias - from Jewish settler organizations, to ISIS, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, Hezbollah, the Houthi movement, the Wagner Group and Kadyrovites Chechens - groups that operate under different political, religious and criminal guises, with varying financing and support from local, governmental and international sources to proxy and/or challenge different states. Our article does not deal with these specificities. Instead of focusing on the particular and unique, we concentrate on the general and universal. Concretely, we argue that the current war between Hamas and Israel shares an important common denominator with prior clashes in the region - namely, that it constitutes an energy conflict and that it correlates with the differential nature of capital accumulation. We coined these two terms in the late 1980s and have studied their underpinnings and implications for the Middle East and beyond ever since. Our purpose in this paper is to highlight our theoretical arguments, update some of our key empirical evidence and show how both the theory and findings apply to the current Hamas-Israel war. |
| Keywords: | capital as power, corporation, differential accumulation, dominant capital, energy conflicts, Gaza, Hamas, Israel, Middle East, oil, Palestine, prices, Technodollar-Pharmadollar Coalition, profit, war, Weapondollar-Petrodollar Coalition |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:capwps:279818&r=cis |
| By: | Jean Chateau; Antonela Miho; Martin Borowiecki |
| Abstract: | This study analyses the economic effects of the EU's ‘Fit for 55’ climate mitigation policies using the OECD ENV-Linkage model, a dynamic, global Computable General Equilibrium model. The model projects macroeconomic, sectoral, energy and emission trends for the EU, and for the five largest EU economies separately, up to 2035. Policy scenarios combine carbon pricing with regulations to reach the ‘Fit For 55’ emission reduction target in 2030. Additional scenarios analyse i) harmonised carbon pricing across countries and sectors, ii) different forms of revenue recycling from carbon pricing, iii) the effect of the EU’s proposed Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism on competitiveness, and iv) the effect of Russia’s war against Ukraine on mitigation costs. Given the short time horizon of the analysis (until 2035), the model does not assess the positive economic benefits associated with fewer climate impacts and extreme climate events. ‘Fit for 55’ policies are projected to lead to a loss of GDP per capita of 2.1% in 2035 compared to the reference scenario (pre-‘Fit for 55’ policies), reflecting increasing production costs on the back of higher carbon pricing. Higher carbon pricing is also projected to lead to a loss of competitiveness in energy-intensive industries. The EU’s proposed Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism may only partly mitigate the loss of competitiveness of energy-intensive industries. Harmonising carbon pricing across sectors would help limit the loss to GDP per capita, as a uniform carbon price is lower and allows for directing emission reduction efforts to sectors and countries with the lowest abatement costs. Finally, Russia’s war against Ukraine has not substantially increased the GDP costs of mitigation. Without the war, lower fossil fuel import prices would have led to higher fossil fuel demand, ultimately requiring more stringent mitigation action. |
| Keywords: | climate change mitigation, Computable General Equilibrium Model, energy, European Union |
| JEL: | C68 H23 Q42 Q48 Q58 R48 |
| Date: | 2023–11–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1775-en&r=cis |
| By: | Elshin, Leonid; Mikhalevich, Polina |
| Abstract: | Importance The high level of dependence of regional economic systems on imports of goods and services forms a whole set of risks of their competitive development. This is especially pronounced through the prism of value added analysis, which determines the effectiveness of the formation of the regional economy, including through its structural transformations. An equally important role is played by the study of the prospects for value added change in the context of individual sectors of the economy today in the context of severe external pressure, the projection of which is the restriction of imports, the transformation of cross-border supply chains and, as a result, the increase in risks of sustainable economic growth. Relying on the presented aspects, the subject of the study is economic relations regarding the possible prospects for the formation of value added in the sectors of the economy of the Republic of Tatarstan in the context of the correction of cross-border foreign economic relations. Objectives Study of the impact of structural transformations in the economy, including the correction of imported supplies, on the formation of value added and gross regional product growth. Method Based on the analysis of the most vulnerable, in terms of dependence on imports, types of economic activity of the region, an assessment and scenario forecasting of the sectoral dynamics of value added and gross regional product as a whole in the context of perturbations of foreign economic supply chains is carried out. The analysis was carried out in the cross-section of ten product groups using the statistical study method. Results It was established that as part of the reduction in the supply of imported products, the decrease in added value in the regional economy may range from 7.5% (inertial scenario) to 47.1% in the event of a negative scenario involving a large-scale drop in import supplies to the sectors of the economy under study. The work was carried out at the expense of a subsidy allocated to Kazan Federal University for the fulfillment of the state task in the field of scientific activity under the project No. FZSM - 2023-0017 "The economics of import substitution in the region in the context of the transformation of supply chains and deglobalization". |
| Keywords: | cross-border supply chains, value added, region, import substitution, sanctions pressure |
| JEL: | C53 |
| Date: | 2023–06–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:118969&r=cis |
| By: | Mahlkow, Hendrik; Wanner, Joschka |
| Abstract: | International trade is highly imbalanced both in terms of values and in terms of embodied carbon emissions. We show that the persistent current value trade imbalance patterns contribute to a higher level of global emissions compared to a world of balanced international trade. Specifically, we build a Ricardian quantitative trade model including sectoral input-output linkages, trade imbalances, fossil fuel extraction, and carbon emissions from fossil fuel combustion and use this framework to simulate counterfactual changes to countries' trade balances. For individual countries, the emission effects of removing their trade imbalances depend on the carbon intensities of their production and consumption patterns, as well as on their fossil resource abundance. Eliminating the Russian trade surplus and the US trade deficit would lead to the largest environmental benefits in terms of lower global emissions. Globally, the simultaneous removal of all trade imbalances would lower world carbon emissions by 0.9 percent or 295 million tons of carbon dioxide. |
| Keywords: | Carbon emissions, international trade, gravity |
| JEL: | F14 F18 Q56 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wuewep:279808&r=cis |
| By: | Wang, Junbo; Ma, Zhenyu; Fan, Xiayang |
| Abstract: | Amid the escalating global climate crisis, the European Union (EU) has assumed a prominent role by introducing the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). This initiative aims to bolster climate action and mitigate carbon leakage. Nevertheless, considerable debate surrounds the practical efficacy of this measure and its conformity with World Trade Organization (WTO) regulations. This paper's objective is to quantitatively evaluate the welfare and carbon abatement effects of CBAM on the EU and other prominent economies. We develop a comprehensive multi-country, multi-sector general equilibrium model that incorporates EU carbon tariffs, global production networks, and carbon emissions to achieve this goal. The estimation of key parameters is conducted through a structural methodology that directly evaluates the impacts on welfare and carbon emissions resulting from unilateral or multilateral low-carbon policies. The analysis revealed that CBAM would enhance the welfare of the EU, Japan, South Korea, Norway, Switzerland, and the United States. Conversely, all other economies would experience a reduction in welfare, with Russia suffering the most significant loss and China the least. Furthermore, despite CBAM's effective global carbon emission reduction, its impact on the EU's domestic carbon reduction is limited. Counterfactual analyses indicate that global carbon emissions decrease in scenarios involving a globally standardized carbon pricing mechanism, China's elevation of carbon pricing alongside a carbon tariff, and the European Union's extension of taxation to all sectors. However, these scenarios result in substantial disparities in welfare levels among countries, with the most substantial reduction in global carbon emissions occurring exclusively with a globally harmonized carbon price, accompanied by the most minor overall welfare loss. In conclusion, this paper advocates for enhanced international collaboration and dialogue among nations to foster harmonizing carbon pricing policies and adopt a universally standardized carbon pricing mechanism. |
| Keywords: | EU CBAM; Carbon leakage; Carbon abatement; Welfare analysis; Quantitative trade model |
| JEL: | F17 F64 Q56 Q58 |
| Date: | 2023–09–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:118978&r=cis |
| By: | Brauweiler, Hans-Christian; Yerimpasheva, Aida; Zakirova, Assem |
| Abstract: | The logistics sector is integrally connected to the growth of Central Asia's (CA) economies and the regional cooperation that underpins those economies. The research aims to demonstrate and justify the significance of the creation and execution of logistical initiatives and cooperative projects to expand economic cooperation in Central Asia. In this article, an exploratory design is used based on collecting secondary qualitative and quantitative data and analyzing selected cases of logistics routes, projects, and initiatives. The study is based on the positive and nominative approaches used in economics. Qualitative research in the form of an in-depth interview with the participants of the International Round Table "Regional Development in Central Asia: Approaches and Priorities" helped identify the main problems in developing logistics infrastructure in the Central Asian countries. Relationships between logistics performance, global competitiveness, and GDP were analyzed. The condition of the logistics and transportation networks in Central Asia is described by the World Bank's Logistics Performance Index (LPI). The growth of the logistics infrastructure influences the CA economies and fosters economic cooperation among Central Asian nations. Investing in logistics infrastructure generates employment opportunities and facilitates cross-border commerce in goods and services, which is crucial for economic cooperation. Likewise, Central Asia's logistics infrastructure and internal transport routes will never be able to compete with maritime transport. However, since the countries are at the crossroads of all routes in extensive Eurasia, they can discover their niche. |
| Keywords: | Economic Cooperation, Central Asia, Logistics, Logistics Performance Index (LPI), Regional Logistics Collaboration |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:opodis:279776&r=cis |
| By: | Marine de Talancé (ERUDITE - Equipe de Recherche sur l’Utilisation des Données Individuelles en lien avec la Théorie Economique - UPEC UP12 - Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12 - Université Gustave Eiffel, LEDA-DIAL - Développement, Institutions et Modialisation - LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Sandra Pellet (ERUDITE - Equipe de Recherche sur l’Utilisation des Données Individuelles en lien avec la Théorie Economique - UPEC UP12 - Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12 - Université Gustave Eiffel, IC Migrations - Institut Convergences Migrations [Aubervilliers]) |
| Abstract: | Population vulnérable, les migrants centrasiatiques en Russie participent à des réseaux d'entraide informels qui complètent une éventuelle assurance formelle en couvrant d'autres risques et en jouant aussi un rôle social dépassant la logique assurantielle. Codes JEL : O15, I13. |
| Keywords: | Risque, Migration, Assurance |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04261578&r=cis |