nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2023‒11‒27
fifteen papers chosen by
Alexander Harin, Modern University for the Humanities

  1. Local Coal For Power Generation In Pakistan By Afia Malik
  2. The Arms Trade and Its Bearing on the Russia-Ukraine War By Subhayu Bandyopadhyay; Praew Grittayaphong
  3. Reviewing the Impact of Energy Sanctions on Russia By Jason Dunn; Christopher J. Neely
  4. Russia-CIS co-operation development in the context of world economic structural transformation. (Part I) By Knobel, Alexander (Кнобель, Александр); Bagdasaryan, Kniaz (Багдасарян, Княз); Zaytsev, Yuriy (Зайцев, Юрий); Sedalishchev, Vladimir (Седалищев, Владимир); Firanchuk, Alexander (Фиранчук, Александр); Baeva, Marina (Баева, Марина); Kazaryan, Maria (Казарян, Мария); Kuznetsov, Dmitrii (Кузнецов, Дмитрий)
  5. Forecasting the main economic indicators for industry in the analytical system "Horizon" By Kitova, Olga; Dyakonova, Ludmila; Savinova, Victoria; Fomin, Kiril
  6. Methods used to estimate the poverty impact of increases in international food prices By Minot, Nicholas; Martin, Will
  7. The Weaponization of Russian Universities: A Neo-Nationalism and University Brief By Chirikov, Igor
  8. Фермерские группы в социальных сетях для повышения качества услуг по распространению знаний и консультаций By Djanibekov, Nodir; Kurbanov, Zafar; Tadjiev, Abdusame; Govind, Ajit; Akramkhanov, Akmal
  9. 动荡局势下的中国粮食安全分析及应对: 保持冷静, 继续维护贸易畅通 By Kuhn, Lena; Jaghdani, Tinoush Jamali; Prehn, Sören; Sun, Zhanli; Glauben, Thomas
  10. Housing prices in Europe - signals of a beginning downturn in many countries!? By Peter Parlasca Fries
  11. Do tenants change? The refugee crisis, pandemics and the price-setting factors of the housing rental market in Poznan, Poland By Michal Hebdzynski
  12. Supporting the Era of Green Pharmaceuticals in the UK By Jake Hitch;Nadine Henderson;Graham Cookson
  13. How much position still influences the market value of a property after the last years’ events according to an Optimized Multivariate Polynomial Regression? By Laura Gabrielli; Aurora Ruggeri; Massimiliano Scarpa
  14. ESTIMATES OF DISTORTIONS OF THE ECONOMIES OF THE EAEU COUNTRIES FROM EXISTING NON-TARIFF BARRIERS (first stage) By Eremin, Vladimir (Ерёмин, Владимир); Sedalishchev, Vladimir (Седалищев, Владимир)
  15. The Volatility of Listed Real Estate in Europe and Portfolio Implications By Louis Johner; Zhaklin Krayushkina; Martin Hoesli

  1. By: Afia Malik (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics)
    Abstract: Coal contributes significantly to global energy supplies. In 2021, coal was the second-largest energy source consumed globally (Chart 1). Over the years, coal demand has increased substantially from 2.6 billion tons in 1980 to 5.5 billion tons in 2021 (Chart 2). Because of environmental concerns and the increasing trend towards renewables, its share declined in the United States and many European countries, decreasing global consumption in 2014 and onwards. But the trend reversed in 2020. It is because of the Russia-Ukraine war leading to the worldwide energy crisis that the demand for coal has increased.
    Date: 2023
  2. By: Subhayu Bandyopadhyay; Praew Grittayaphong
    Abstract: The arms trade links nations through their security interests, and its current patterns may be complicating a political resolution of the Russia-Ukraine war.
    Keywords: Russian invasion of Ukraine; Russia; Ukraine; arms trade
    Date: 2022–11–21
  3. By: Jason Dunn; Christopher J. Neely
    Abstract: So far, Western sanctions on Russian oil and gas exports appear to be working. But in the longer term, Russia may find ways to evade the price cap imposed on its oil sales.
    Keywords: Russia; oil and gas; exports; Russian invasion of Ukraine
    Date: 2023–02–16
  4. By: Knobel, Alexander (Кнобель, Александр) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Bagdasaryan, Kniaz (Багдасарян, Княз) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Zaytsev, Yuriy (Зайцев, Юрий) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Sedalishchev, Vladimir (Седалищев, Владимир) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Firanchuk, Alexander (Фиранчук, Александр) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Baeva, Marina (Баева, Марина) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Kazaryan, Maria (Казарян, Мария) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Kuznetsov, Dmitrii (Кузнецов, Дмитрий) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: The first part of the research studies theoretical approaches, models and factors in determining the structural transformation of the world economy and presents some empirical assessments. The object of this study is trade and economic cooperation of the CIS countries in the context of structural transformation of the world economy and new trade and political restrictions introduced against Russia and Belarus, which have a significant impact on the entire system of foreign economic relations. The aim of the study is to assess the changes in the level of integration in different spheres of Russia, the EU, China with the CIS countries and CIS countries among themselves and the impact of sanctions against Russia and Belarus on the CIS countries. The relevance of the work is justified by the transformation of economic ties of the CIS countries, the forced need for Russia to search for new international transport and logistics routes and financial schemes and the processes of transformation of the system of international economic relations, which together form a new economic reality for the CIS. The paper uses an empirical method of quantitative data research, econometric method of calculating various indicators and indices, as well as systemic analysis. The main results of the study consist in analyzing changes in the conditions of trade and economic cooperation of post-Soviet countries and integration in different spheres in 2022, including interrupted projects, including those with third countries.
    Keywords: Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), post-soviet region, integration processes, structural transformation, economic cooperation, impact of sanctions, integration index, Russian Federation
    JEL: F02 F2 F5 R11
    Date: 2023–10–18
  5. By: Kitova, Olga; Dyakonova, Ludmila; Savinova, Victoria; Fomin, Kiril
    Abstract: Industrial development is of great strategic importance for ensuring sustainable economic growth in Russia and solving social problems. Therefore, the development of approaches and methods for comprehensive analysis and forecasting of industrial indicators at the national and regional level is of particular importance, which will facilitate the adoption of scientifically based decisions in the field of industrial planning and management. What is needed is a system of indicator models that will allow for a comprehensive analysis of industrial development, identification of the main influencing factors, as well as the development of forecasting models and methods and their application to the indicators under study. The hybrid forecasting system “Horizon”, developed by the authors of the study, implements regression and intelligent models for most groups of indicators of the Russian economy. At the same time, most researchers rely in their studies on autoregressive time series models based on ARIMA. The authors have developed a new module of the Horizon ARIMA system, which can be used when forecasting individual indicators. These forecasts can be considered as baseline when conducting comparative analysis with hybrid models. This study is devoted to forecasting a group of main economic indicators of Russian industry using ARIMA time series models.
    Keywords: socio-economic indicators of the Russian Federation, industry indicators, forecasting, time series, hybrid information and analytical system
    JEL: C15 C45
    Date: 2023–10–16
  6. By: Minot, Nicholas; Martin, Will
    Abstract: The prices of agricultural commodities have increased on international markets since the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic in early 2020 and spiked after the invasion of Ukraine by Russia in February 2022. The price increases were particularly notable in the case of wheat, maize, and sorghum, which are staple foods in many developing countries. This prompted a wave of research to better understand the effect of these price changes on income and poverty in low-income countries. IFPRI carried out a set of country studies to explore the poverty impact of higher staple grain prices on six countries in sub-Saharan Africa: Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Nigeria, Kenya, and Ethiopia (see Martin and Minot, 2023a, 2023b, and 2023c and Minot and Martin, 2023a, 2023b, and 2023c). This brief describes the methods and data used in those studies.
    Keywords: MALI; BURKINA FASO; KENYA; EAST AFRICA; NIGER; WEST AFRICA; AFRICA SOUTH OF SAHARA; AFRICA; NIGERIA; ETHIOPIA; agricultural products; markets; Coronavirus; coronavirus disease; Coronavirinae; COVID-19; prices; wheat; maize; sorghum; staple foods; developing countries; income; poverty
    Date: 2023
  7. By: Chirikov, Igor
    Keywords: Education
    Date: 2023–11–06
  8. By: Djanibekov, Nodir; Kurbanov, Zafar; Tadjiev, Abdusame; Govind, Ajit; Akramkhanov, Akmal
    Abstract: Распространение информационно-коммуникационных техно логий (ИКТ) в Центральной Азии достигло уровня, при котором большинство фермеров получают необходимую им своевре менную и доступную информацию и консультационные услуги непосредственно из Интернета, используя смартфоны. В настоя щее время фермеры активно ищут альтернативные источники информации в условиях, когда качество официальных служб распространения сельскохозяйственных знаний не отвечает спросу. Например, фермеры используют соцсети, такие как Telegram и WhatsApp, для обмена сообщениями и знаниями в тематических группах. Исследование фермерских хозяйств, проведенное в Казахстана и Узбекистана в 2022 году, выявило, что участие фермеров в онлайн-группах по обмену информа цией в основном обуславливается возможностью быстрого до ступа к необходимой информации. В то же время вид возделы ваемых культур или площадь земель фермерского хозяйства имеют меньшее значение. Результаты исследования актуальны для разработки стратегий частного сектора и государственной политики по распространению цифровых технологий среди фермеров Центральной Азии с комплексным планом цифровой трансформации. При широком внедрении цифровых техноло гий на основе смартфонов и интернета рекомендуется делать ставку на молодых и технологически подкованных фермеров, которые, с одной стороны, полагаются на собственные знания, а с другой - более отзывчивы к внедрению новых подходов ве дения сельского хозяйства и взаимодействия c другими фер мерами. Самостоятельность фермеров в принятии решений яв ляется одним из важных факторов в цифровой трансформации сельского хозяйства региона.
    Abstract: The spread of information and communications technology (ICT) in Central Asia has reached a point where most farmers use smartphones with mobile internet access providing an opportunity for a low-cost and timely access to agricultural information and advisory services. When extension service is poor and does not cater to the farmers' needs, farmers seek other sources of information, such as exchanging knowledge with their peers and engaging in social media groups using instant messaging applications (apps) such as Telegram and WhatsApp. Analysis of a farm-level survey conducted in 2022 in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, suggests that farmers' participation in online groups for information exchange is influenced by the enabling environment rather than by the type of cultivated crops or farm size. The findings are relevant for developing private sector strategies and public policies to spread digital technologies among Central Asia's farmers with a holistic plan for a digital transformation. When introducing smartphone- or web-based digital technologies, policymakers are recommended to start scaling up with younger and more technologically-savvy farmers who on the one hand rely on their own knowledge but on the other hand are more open to embracing new ways of farming and interaction. Decision-making autonomy is an important factor to facilitate digital transformation in agriculture in the Central Asian context.
    JEL: Q16 Q13 O32
    Date: 2023
  9. By: Kuhn, Lena; Jaghdani, Tinoush Jamali; Prehn, Sören; Sun, Zhanli; Glauben, Thomas
    Abstract: 国际农产品贸易对于维护全球粮食安全起着关键的作用。 一方面, 国际贸易使全球的消费者得以获取多样性的食物(Krivonos 和 Kuhn, 2019), 另一方面, 贸易也可以通过食品分配机制, 充分利 用各地区气候与资源禀赋的区域差异, 来确保不同地区的人们能 够获得基本的食品保障, 维护全球食品安全(Glauben等, 2022)。 过度强调食品本地化, 并不可取。 虽然本地生产和短食品供应链在 一定程度上可以降低运输成本, 但综合碳排放并不一定降低, 且对 于维护全球和区域的粮食系统的韧性尚存争议(Stein和Santini, 2022)。 当前由于持续的 Covid-19疫情大流行、日益增长的全球粮 食需求和不断频发的极端天气事件, 国际农产品贸易正面临供应 链中断和国际市场价格不断上涨等挑战。 这些挑战均威胁到本已严 峻的粮食安全形势, 尤其是对于那些严重依赖进口的低收入地区。 中美贸易战和俄乌冲突等地缘政治风险更是雪上加霜, 进一步扰乱 了全球粮食市场。 在此动荡时期, 作为世界上最大的农产品消费国 和进口国, 中国的贸易战略和行为必然影响着国际市场, 对世界各 地的消费者, 特别是在全球南方发展中国家(Global South), 可能会 产生连锁反应。 本政策简报旨在分析中国当前的市场行为, 以及可 能采取的中短期行动及其影响。 我们主张中国及相关国家都应采取 稳健和冷静的行动应对短期冲击, 应避免过度流动限制和增加贸易 壁垒以及过度囤积行为, 共同维护正常的国际食品贸易, 以应对人 口增长和气候变化带来的长期的、严峻的全球挑战。
    Abstract: International agricultural trade is key to improving global food security. It ensures access to more diversified foods (e.g. Krivonos and Kuhn 2019 ), acts as a safety net against local production shortfalls (Glauben et al. 2022) and helps make use of regional climatic or resource-related production advantages. While local production and short supply chains can reduce transport costs, they do not necessarily equate to resilient food systems or lower carbon footprints (Stein and Santini 2022). Currently, though, international agricultural trade is facing supply chain disruptions and rising world market prices resulting from the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, increasing global food demand and extreme weather events. Both are threatening already strained food security, in particular in import-dependent, low-income regions. Geopolitical risks, such as the China-US trade war and Russia's invasion of Ukraine, are further rattling the food market. As the world's largest consumer of agricultural goods, China's trade strategies influence world markets, with ripple-down effects for consumers around the world, particularly in the Global South. This policy brief aims at shedding light on China's current market actions, and the likely short- and mid-term developments and their impacts. We argue for moderation in response to short-term shocks. Excessive mobility and trade restrictions as well as extreme stockpiling should be avoided. These harm the trade system's overall capacity to resist further and more serious global challenges related to population growth and climate change.
    Keywords: food security, foreign agricultural trade, agricultural market, import, food price, China
    JEL: Q17 Q11 Q18
    Date: 2022
  10. By: Peter Parlasca Fries
    Abstract: The Covid Crisis affected nearly all European countries. In contrast, house prices continued their upswing without any exception across European Countries. However, in line with the economic recovery coming to an end from summer 2022, signals for the end of the house price bubbles could be seen as well. How did the housing markets in European countries develop during the Covid crisis and how were they affected by various shocks (Ukraine war, supply shortages and increasing inflation) the following year? First results of the analysis underline that house prices went up all over Europe, but turnover figures (number of sales, volume) started to decline already in the first half of 2022. The development of house prices over the last decade since 2013 differed widely between European countries and much more than the development of economic activity within European countries. Comparing the developments since 2008, it is worth mentioning that GDP recovery following the GFC and the Covid Crisis allowed nearly all countries to reach their pre-crisis level until 2022 before the Ukraine war related effects hit again the European economies from summer 2022. In contrast to the economic developments, housing markets in various European countries did not yet reach the pre-crisis level until 2022 although the upswing of the housing markets started in Europe around 2014 even without being hampered by the Covid crisis. In a small number of European countries house prices doubled between 2008 and 2022. The available data on quarterly house sales (number of transactions and volume) seems to be a promising data source to develop projections of the housing market in many European countries.
    Keywords: Covid Crisis; European economic development; housing market projections; Housing Prices
    JEL: R3
    Date: 2023–01–01
  11. By: Michal Hebdzynski
    Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic that started in early 2020 and the refugee crisis related to the Russian invasion on Ukraine in February 2022 have been the source of shocks to the housing rental market. It has been particularly visible in Poland, where the market reacted to the changing environment through multiple channels, out of which two are the areas of interest of this paper. First of those is the rent-setting factors channel as it may be hypothesized that in response to those shocks the preferences of market participants have changed. Secondly, the drastic changes of demand and its structure resulted in an unprecedented variation of rent levels. Based on the hedonic model of the market of Poznan (Poland) it has been documented, that the pandemic influenced revealed preferences of market participants towards certain housing characteristics, such as the number of rooms, proximity to green areas and proximity to city center, leaving the price elasticity of presence of balcony unchanged. As for the impact of the refugee crisis on the rent-setting factors, it has been shown that it has affected the tenants’ attitudes towards apartment furnishing, its type of heating and the type of building in which the apartment is located. Moreover, the quality-adjusted hedonic rent indices have been obtained using OLS, quantile regression and Spatial Autoregressive Model (SAR). Their goal has been to quantify the rent change of the market in years 2019-2023 but also to discuss the sensitivity of the rent indices to the rent-setting factors changes. The analysis has been conducted on the unique (in terms of the number of housing characteristics and their completeness) dataset of rental listings. However, in order to prove the validity of the results the comparison of some transactional and listings data has been provided. The early results show that the coefficients of the models built on the possessed dataset of apartment listings go in line with the ones obtained on the transactional data. Thus, running the analysis of the rent-setting factors on the listing data may be considered justified.
    Keywords: Covid-19 pandemic; refugees; Rental market; Revealed preferences
    JEL: R3
    Date: 2023–01–01
  12. By: Jake Hitch;Nadine Henderson;Graham Cookson
    Abstract: Tackling the climate crisis is an international priority. Healthcare has a high carbon footprint, accounting for 5% of the UK's carbon footprint (Lenzen et al., 2020) and NHS England has estimated that the manufacture, supply, and use of pharmaceuticals account for 25% of the NHS's total carbon footprint (NHS England, 2020). As part of a raft of measures to improve sustainability, the UK government and the NHS in England have shown international leadership by setting ambitious net zero targets in recent years. However, it is widely recognised that to meet net zero targets, the private sector has an important role to play in reducing the carbon and broader environmental footprints of the products and services they supply to society. Many pharmaceutical companies have made commitments to reach net zero carbon across their operations, but in order to deliver, several significant, industry-specific challenges must be overcome. This report sets out the high-priority activities that the NHS, UK government and industry should undertake to tackle these challenges. To adopt the recommendations, investment is needed from the industry, the UK Government and the NHS. No one actor can be expected to foot the bill for the upfront and ongoing investment needed to achieve long-term sustainability within the pharmaceutical industry. Any action taken in the UK will need to be replicated internationally to have any impact. Meaningful engagement, collaboration and action need to be taken now by governments, health systems, medicines regulators and companies globally to secure the era of green pharmaceuticals. The core analysis for this report was undertaken before the energy crisis began. The crisis is caused by a number of global factors that have been worsened by local factors to result in high energy prices. The soaring cost of energy serves to reinforce both the urgency for action and the recommended actions outlined in this report. Specifically, the energy crisis shows how vulnerable the global pharmaceutical supply chain is to geo-political events (such as the war in Ukraine), fluctuations in the price of energy due to shortages of supply and the effects of climate change like heatwaves, fires and draughts. In the context of high energy prices, any actions to improve energy efficiency will pay for themselves more quickly increasing the incentives on companies to invest in energy efficiency to reduce the vulnerability of the industry to global shocks in the future.
    Keywords: Supporting the Era of Green Pharmaceuticals in the UK
    JEL: I1
    Date: 2022–11–01
  13. By: Laura Gabrielli; Aurora Ruggeri; Massimiliano Scarpa
    Abstract: There are three things that matter in property: location, location, location", states Lord Harold Samuel in his iconic sentence. Even though the location is certainly not the only characteristic of a property that determines its market value, it is undoubtedly one of the most important, if not the most important. In this research, the authors wish to discuss how the fixed effects influence the best estimate of the market value of a premise through an innovative use of multi-parametric estimation techniques. In particular, the aim is to detect the different marginal appreciation of intrinsic and extrinsic characteristics of properties at three different timings: before the Covid-19 pandemic, two years after the first Covid-19 alerts but before the War in Ukraine, one year after the breakout of the War. The marginal appreciations of the building’s features are diachronically analysed for a case-study in Northern Italy through a Random Forest feature importance analysis and an Optimized Multivariate Polynomial Regression. This study also integrates several techniques, such as computer programming in Python languages, multi-parametric value assessment methods, feature selection procedures and optimisation algorithms. The results may represent an interesting ongoing monitoring of how these abnormal events affect the buyer's willingness to pay to specific characteristics of the buildings, with particular attention to the location features of the neighbourhood and accessibility.
    Keywords: Location; Market analysis; Market Value; Polynomial regression
    JEL: R3
    Date: 2023–01–01
  14. By: Eremin, Vladimir (Ерёмин, Владимир) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Sedalishchev, Vladimir (Седалищев, Владимир) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: Inevitably, non-tariff barriers (NTBs) that exist in trade between countries generate rents associated with them, which can either be distributed in some ratio between trading partners or dissipate, thereby leading to a loss of resources. The valuation of these rents and their distribution is not an easy task, because the effect of NTBs in their entirety is usually difficult to quantify due to the different nature of the trade restrictions that make up NTBs. Nevertheless, in the light of the global trend towards tariff liberalization that has been going on for more than a hundred years, this task sometimes becomes more important in the study of trade than classical studies of the impact of import and/or export tariffs, since NTB rents can multiply tariff revenue. One of the possible tools for modeling the impact of NTBs on the economies of various countries (and in particular on the domestic prices of goods), taking into account the existing trade relations between states, are static CGE trading models (from the English Computable General Equilibrium models - computable general equilibrium models). One of the objectives of this study is to prepare our own database based on the most recent available statistical data, similar in structure to the GTAP 10 database, but with a smaller number of regions and supplemented with information about the ad valorem equivalents of the goods we are interested in in the context of trading partners. As the results in this study, the following aspects of the work carried out can be distinguished, such as a review of the literature on existing approaches to assessing the imbalances of economies generated by NTM, as well as an analysis of trade in goods and services between the EAEU countries and their main partners, which is necessary for interpreting the results of the numerical modeling stage, a scheme for preparing input data for calibration of the used CGE models.
    Keywords: global economy, international trade, CGE, trade policy, Russian Federation, foreign economic strategy, computable general equilibrium models, GTAP database, export restrictions, global matrices of social accounts, EAEU, non-tariff barriers
    JEL: F02 F13
    Date: 2023–10–19
  15. By: Louis Johner; Zhaklin Krayushkina; Martin Hoesli
    Abstract: Major unexpected events have substantial effects on the volatility of listed real estate (LRE) investments, the most recent ones being the Covid-19 pandemic and the Ukraine conflict. Societal changes, such as the rise of e-commerce and remote working, are also affecting how we use buildings and hence how LRE prices react to shocks, these impacts often differing across property sectors and countries. Although listed and direct real estate have common economic drivers, it is well known that LRE reacts more sharply to shocks than direct real estate; this frequently being considered a drawback of LRE by investors. However, little research has investigated whether the higher volatility and liquidity of LRE can lead to higher risk-adjusted returns stemming from tactical portfolio rebalancing. This paper seeks to understand better how the volatility of European LRE across sectors and countries has changed over the period 2007-2022 and how this information can be incorporated in a dynamic portfolio framework. We investigate the impacts of rule-based tactical rebalancing on the performance and composition of a listed real estate portfolio. Finally, we examine the effects of such reallocation on the composition of a mixed-asset porfolio containing LRE. Specifically, this paper attempts to investigate the following research questions: How has the volatility of European LRE across sectors and countries changed over time? Can rule-based tactical rebalancing exploit changes in volatility to generate excess risk-adjusted returns? What are the implications of LRE tactical rebalancing on the composition of a mixed-asset portfolio?
    Keywords: Listed Real Estate; Mixed-asset Portfolio; Tactical rebalancing; Volatility
    JEL: R3
    Date: 2023–01–01

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